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The MSL is winding down, but the games are amping up. The quarterfinals separated those who did not belong from those who are truly a cut above. Only one series went beyond a third game, as the favorites delivered the coup de grace to their foes, quick, clean and easy.
The semifinals promise to bring higher caliber games in preparation for the final itself. Who will compete in the finals? Who will kiss the MSL trophy? We’ll just have to wait and see, but nearly all the possibilities are exciting and fitting ends which should allow the name of NATE to be redeemed in MSL history.
MSL Quarterfinals Recap
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Game 1: Match Point
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I’ve used the phrase ‘mindless aggression’ to characterize two players in Starcraft today. One of them is Kwanro, and the other is JangBi, back when JangBi was easily rattled and still baby-faced. Kwanro, though, has never thought really to inject a whole lot of sense into his play, yet he has succeeded on the back of his strong micro and reliable game sense. These days, though, while micro helps and is essential for high-level success, the real key to winning is power macro and scouting (or, if you’re Korean, clairvoyance). So when the game length was 6 minutes, Kwanro opted for a 12 hatch and Light went for 1 rax expand, I wasn’t sure if the game was going to play to Kwanro’s strengths at all. Maybe the 12 hatch was a fake out, because it looked like Kwanro had taken a bite of the late game mentality, decided he didn’t like the taste, and went back to what works. And somehow, despite Light’s firebats, it worked. Kwanrolled in a brand new way.
Game 2: Fighting Spirit
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It usually amuses me when two games have identical openings in a series. It means that either somebody thinks that the map makes a big difference, or the first game was a fluke. I’m betting it was Light who felt gypped, and Kwanro who felt bold. Of course, the openings weren’t identical, as Kwanro opted for a very uncharacteristic (for his style) third hatch early. Light clearly remembered the last game though, because he built his bunker earlier, in case Kwanro decided to go special forces with his lings again. Instead, it was a very typical (except for maybe two or three pairs of lings) 3 hatch approach to the Zerg midgame, dropping a hatchery and a sunken to be safe. Light put down his academy, and probably breathed a little easier. Kwanro still tried to be irritating with his lings, but some menacing looking firebats stopped them cold at the ramp to Light’s main. Then there were mutas, turrets, dead marines, a third base, the whole shebang, if you will. Light’s micro, persistence, and reinforcements managed to keep Kwanro from transferring drones to his third, which considerably slowed Kwanro’s economy. Because Kwanro’s harass had done practically no damage, Light’s timings were spot on, and he had 2 tanks, an m&m army, and a vessel before Kwanro had his third comfortably saturated. Kwanro just sort of ignored Light’s rising vessel count at the start, evidently subscribing to the ‘I-don’t –think-irradiate-is-all-that-annoying’ school of ZvT thought. Light didn’t punish him for it though, as his defilers were able to drive the first push back with just swarm & a fair number of lings. The whole game looked like an uphill battle for Kwanro, constantly being irritated by Light’s vessels and failing to control the map. Finally, Kwanro made Light back off, which allowed him to set up a fourth and a fifth base, and bouncing off that economy and his spectacular defiler play and game management, Kwanro took the win to put him up 2-0.
Game 3: Odd-Eye
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What can I say? Short games favor Kwanro. Being up 2-0 favors a player in a series. Cross spots favors the Zerg in ZvT. Light had a lot of ground to make up, and not a whole lot of wiggle room. I had expected some boldness from Light in this series. You’re down 2-0—you have to do something to bring yourself back into it. Standard play wasn’t favoring Light, so I assumed maybe he would do a bunker rush, or a 3 rax sunken brake, or mech, just something different that might give him an edge in a mental game dominated by Kwanro’s antics. But nonesuch. Another 1 rax expand. Forgive me for soapboxing, but this is what I dislike about the game these days, and this is what I dislike about players like Light. He didn’t seem to have even the slightest grasp on what to do except mindlessly execute a preconceived gameplan. Kwanro will make you improvise, but if you can respond, you can put him on his heels. It was like Light hadn’t even considered who he was playing or what that player might do. Kwanro, to his credit, was bold in repeating his strategy. He went gas first for the super fast mutas, with some mass ling play again. Light stuffed the lings the first time, but couldn’t stop them a second time. Basic stuff. Light’s barracks were burning, and the mutas were spawning. Never a good way to win. There’s nothing else to say except Light earned his 0-3 series’ fail, because it was a disastrous showing from a generally solid player.
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Game 1: Odd-Eye
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As I was eyed the Round of 8 of this OSL, I kept scratching my head and asking how Stats got this far. I even checked the R&S thread to see if they had gotten it right and hadn’t mixed him up with Bisu instead. Sure enough, though, Stats had earned his slot. And now he was going to get rolled. There was no question from the very beginning, as Jaedong was his opponent. Jaedong dialed up his virtuoso 9 pool play, while Stats went forge FE and attempted to give Jaedong a headache with his probe. Deciding that he was too good for 2 cannons against a Jaedong 9 pool, Stats cut his corners and relinquished a zergling scout into his main. More lings rallied to Stats' natural while Jaedong droned up at his three bases. Maybe it was lacking a second cannon (actually, it was definitely because he lacked a second cannon) but Jaedong managed to run 4 lings into Stats’ main. While they did minimal damage, I think their effectiveness was far more in the distraction category, and I think it got into Stats’ head, in case the prospect of playing Jaedong hadn’t already intimidated him into wetting his bed. Meanwhile, Jaedong teched to lurkers which spawned in plenty of time to reject an archon and some wayward zealots attacking his third. Jaedong screwed up a premature attack on Stats’ natural with uncharacteristically bad micro, but at least it kept Stats honest, who finally threw down the second cannon, at about the same time as Jaedong threw down his third base and macroed a giant lurker army, which he promptly threw at Stats’ natural. Stats was forced to burn his storms before he’d wanted to, I think, and some far-too-late storm drops proved impotent to keep lings from streaming into his natural and sealing the game for Jaedong.
Game 2: Fighting Spirit
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The bright side about this game for Stats was that nothing had really changed for his mental position. He should have expected to be 0-1 at this point, and he had some time to line some good builds up. Didn’t change the fact that he was playing Jaedong, though, and Jaedong didn’t seem to care who he was playing. He could have been playing Deep Fritz 11 (reference for the chess fans) and he would have won this game. Jaedong is very comfortable with the 9 pool and its variations, because he did it again this time, and Stats responded with a personal innovation: two cannons. Jaedong waded ankle deep into his opponent’s defenses before realizing nothing could be accomplished and backed out, expanding twice and morphing a lair, as is typical. A sair popped out for Stats, and he began upgrading +1 at the forge, while Jaedong added drones and hatcheries. There may have been an element of bait-and-switch going on, because Jaedong’s muta timing was a little unusual, and I don’t think Stats had bothered to think mutas with the fast added hatcheries. As could be expected, Jaedong’s mutas were wickedly effective, and Stats was well on his way to another loss even before Jaedong safely added a fourth base. Credit where credit is due, Stats’ army composition was good for the muta and lurker threat, being mainly dragoons, but a pure goon army won’t last long as the Zerg makes a nearly effortless transition to mass hydra unless it has templar support, which it didn’t. Even more perplexing was that his army didn’t have observer support until an embarrassingly long time after his first DT had seen the morphing hydras. I also got the sense that Jaedong was toying with Stats, as an absolutely brutal number of lings put on a show, surrounding and mauling the dragoons. 4 bases to 2, no army for the Protoss, Jaedong at the helm. GG in a surprisingly lopsided game, even for these players.
Game 3: Match Point
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Jaedong 9 pooled again, snuck two lings in, and while they didn’t accomplish much, I don’t think they needed to. And on a personal note, I’m rarely vindictive, except two cases: certain collegiate American football programs, and Starcraft. I hate being bunker rushed, and I hate having my expansion delayed by probes. I rooted hard for Jaedong when I saw that, and I make no intention to hide my bias there. I also need to make a critique of Stats here. He produced multiple corsairs, and then added gateways. One of the cardinal rules of Starcraft strategy as it has been explained to me is “No dead ends,” meaning, generally, make everything have a purpose. That’s why, when multiple corsairs are produced, that usually indicates some strategy that depends on corsairs killing things, and in the case of ZvP, that thing is overlords. But Stats didn’t employ the corsairs for anything more than annoying Jaedong. He didn’t make reavers, he didn’t make DTs. He flew his corsairs around not even in groups, and while they picked off maybe 3 overlords overall, they were easily scourged, and in the end little but a waste of resources and tied up supply. Jaedong was so unfazed by the corsairs he went for drops with his mass hyudras, and the corsairs couldn't stop it. Jaedong wiped out Stats’ main, including all of his tech, and traded his third for it. Meanwhile, Stats was scrambling to establish a third, and he took out Jaedong’s third. Jaedong traded his third base for Stats’ main, which is an advantage to the Zerg. Jaedong army then slowly picked away at Stats’ army, which he couldn’t reinforce, what with all of his tech and gateways destroyed, and it was pretty much game at that point.
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Game 1: Fighting Spirit
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Flash’s worst matchup used to be his TvZ. Not anymore. That dubious title now belongs to his TvP. So what would the Little Monster make of the Devil’s Apprentice? Let’s not ignore the fact that this is a proxy KT v SKT match, and that these players have played against each other, and Flash had never beaten BeSt before. Never. BeSt owned the all-time head-to-head 3-0, and Flash was looking to even the score with a sweep. BeSt, I’ve always found, likes to be exceptionally irritating with his scouting probe against Terrans, and this game was no different, but Flash shrugged it off. BeSt did a traditional 1 gate core, detouring at observers before adding gateways and double expanding. Flash answered by taking his natural and adding a factory. Then Flash used his paranormal game sense and moved out with three tanks, a handful of vultures and some marines, and caught BeSt at a weak spot. BeSt only had two gateways when Flash attacked, and Flash’s strong micro allowed him to scatter the opposing goons and bring down the natural nexus. The next thing Flash did was why I think he’s perhaps the smartest player around. He recognized that he’d done his damage, and instead of continually pressing the attack he backed off, with the total losses of one tank, two marines and maybe five vultures, which he traded for a couple probes, all of BeSt’s goons, and his natural nexus. Flash then scouted BeSt’s third, added factories and macroed, knowing he could exploit how weak he’d made BeSt. BeSt built a reaver, but Flash caught it and a couple dragoons in the open field and routed them, pushed to the natural, and won the game without breaking a sweat.
Game 2: Match Point
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BeSt continued his tradition of being annoying with his scouting probe by taking Flash’s gas, and once again Flash was unfazed. BeSt took an early expansion as did Flash, choosing to take his natural geyser and leave his main geyser taken, which seemed strange. BeSt ran by Flash’s natural bunker with three zealots and killed far too many SCVs, but Flash, ever poised, was working out how to strike back.
Meanwhile both took their thirds and sat on their heels, adding gateways and factories, and creeping up on their late game tech. Once again, though, Flash sensed a weak spot in BeSt’s build and sent way more tanks than he should have had at that point to the low ground cliffs below BeSt’s natural and hammered at the probes. BeSt came in to flank with a force of mainly dragoons, and tanks>dragoons in even numbers. Flash had his revenge plus a little more when BeSt’s natural nexus once again went down, but BeSt luckily had his first arbiter out to cloak his dragoons. That didn’t make that big of a difference to Flash’s vultures, who then raided BeSt’s third, killing far too many probes. The attack ended when stasis finished, but it gave Flash an opportunity to safely take his fourth, and a third gas.
BeSt then managed to sneak in an arbiter and recall a large number of zealots and dragoons into Flash’s main, causing havoc but not really as much damage as BeSt would have hoped. Still, BeSt hedged his bets and took a fourth, as Flash macroed up. The threat of the recall was what kept Flash in his base, because he had opportunities to strike with his superior force which I think could have won the game for him, but instead he raided with vultures and destroyed every probe in BeSt’s fourth. I was close to snoozing when Flash landed his Science Facility and attached a covert ops. Still, I think it was, along with his Maginot Line of turrets, another tactic to assuage his fears of arbiters this time via lockdown. I was wrong, though. Flash built a command center and attached a nuclear silo. While Flash was playing around with ghosts, though, BeSt had secured the 12 o’clock and was effectively keeping Flash from taking the 6 o’clock. Then Flash, every tricky, shot an EMP at BeSt’s 12 o’clock nexus and managed to kill it with a nuke launched from his own base. BeSt retaliated by recalling on Flash’s turret line while taking the 6 o’clock and rebuilding the 12 o’clock. Boldened by the recall’s success and the division of Flash’s forces, BeSt attacked up Flash’s middle toward his third and appeared to be rolling, with zealot reinforcements streaming in. Flash ended up pushing BeSt back, but Flash had an even bigger problem.
He was completely mined out. He had amassed enough of an army, however, that he was able to push toward the 6 o’clock, drive BeSt’s forces away, and float the command center that had previously been hosting the nuclear silo there. The constant fighting had depleted BeSt’s forces and he was taking a very long time to rebuild, while Flash had rallied and looked ready to drive Terran metal right at BeSt’s front. Unwilling to abandon his defensive position around his last remaining expansion, Flash reclaimed his covert ops, nuclear silo, and rebuilt a barracks to nuke BeSt’s 12 o’clock again. But a very aware nearby arbiter managed to throw a stasis field on the ghost at the last moment. After a few minutes of chicken, BeSt finally rammed his army up the gut of Flash’s enormous tank line, which was mostly under stasis and completely without vulture support. Flash rallied, however, and brough his forces being used elsewhere and BeSt came up noticeably short. The game dragged on for some time thereafter, but it was effectively over at that point and BeSt knew it.
Meanwhile both took their thirds and sat on their heels, adding gateways and factories, and creeping up on their late game tech. Once again, though, Flash sensed a weak spot in BeSt’s build and sent way more tanks than he should have had at that point to the low ground cliffs below BeSt’s natural and hammered at the probes. BeSt came in to flank with a force of mainly dragoons, and tanks>dragoons in even numbers. Flash had his revenge plus a little more when BeSt’s natural nexus once again went down, but BeSt luckily had his first arbiter out to cloak his dragoons. That didn’t make that big of a difference to Flash’s vultures, who then raided BeSt’s third, killing far too many probes. The attack ended when stasis finished, but it gave Flash an opportunity to safely take his fourth, and a third gas.
BeSt then managed to sneak in an arbiter and recall a large number of zealots and dragoons into Flash’s main, causing havoc but not really as much damage as BeSt would have hoped. Still, BeSt hedged his bets and took a fourth, as Flash macroed up. The threat of the recall was what kept Flash in his base, because he had opportunities to strike with his superior force which I think could have won the game for him, but instead he raided with vultures and destroyed every probe in BeSt’s fourth. I was close to snoozing when Flash landed his Science Facility and attached a covert ops. Still, I think it was, along with his Maginot Line of turrets, another tactic to assuage his fears of arbiters this time via lockdown. I was wrong, though. Flash built a command center and attached a nuclear silo. While Flash was playing around with ghosts, though, BeSt had secured the 12 o’clock and was effectively keeping Flash from taking the 6 o’clock. Then Flash, every tricky, shot an EMP at BeSt’s 12 o’clock nexus and managed to kill it with a nuke launched from his own base. BeSt retaliated by recalling on Flash’s turret line while taking the 6 o’clock and rebuilding the 12 o’clock. Boldened by the recall’s success and the division of Flash’s forces, BeSt attacked up Flash’s middle toward his third and appeared to be rolling, with zealot reinforcements streaming in. Flash ended up pushing BeSt back, but Flash had an even bigger problem.
He was completely mined out. He had amassed enough of an army, however, that he was able to push toward the 6 o’clock, drive BeSt’s forces away, and float the command center that had previously been hosting the nuclear silo there. The constant fighting had depleted BeSt’s forces and he was taking a very long time to rebuild, while Flash had rallied and looked ready to drive Terran metal right at BeSt’s front. Unwilling to abandon his defensive position around his last remaining expansion, Flash reclaimed his covert ops, nuclear silo, and rebuilt a barracks to nuke BeSt’s 12 o’clock again. But a very aware nearby arbiter managed to throw a stasis field on the ghost at the last moment. After a few minutes of chicken, BeSt finally rammed his army up the gut of Flash’s enormous tank line, which was mostly under stasis and completely without vulture support. Flash rallied, however, and brough his forces being used elsewhere and BeSt came up noticeably short. The game dragged on for some time thereafter, but it was effectively over at that point and BeSt knew it.
Game 3: Ultimatum
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BeSt was once again annoying with his scouting probe. BeSt once again went 1 gate core. Flash once again expanded quickly, though more quickly than previously. BeSt pressured with dragoons, draining Flash’s minerals into repairing the bunker, and quickly thereafter he had taken Ultimatum’s island and was building a reaver. Flash smelled something funny because he had tanks ready to take the reaver on once it dropped, but BeSt was unable to find any place soft enough to penetrate with the shuttle. BeSt’s impotent shuttle harass must have encouraged Flash, who, for the third time, made attacks in the midgame that seemed to be timed precisely when BeSt was vulnerable. That, of course, was because Flash had opted for 5 factory pressure, and, smelling blood in the water, piled it on. BeSt maneuvered his reaver to cut off any reinforcements to Flash’s contain but it was too late for that. BeSt already had a big enough problem at his freshly mined and besieged natural. It dragged on for a while, but Flash had even managed to isolate BeSt’s dragoons from the zealots, which forced BeSt to try and break out before he wanted to. It was a narrow choke with far too many tanks aimed at it, but, looking like Reach trying to bust a contain with nothing but a long shot, BeSt almost shook the contain. He was a single tank kill from ending it, but at exactly the right time tanks reinforced the contain and vultures streamed up the ramp, and there was no doubt now that it was gg for BeSt.
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Game 1: Odd-Eye
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In my mind, Hwasin is the Terran version of Kal, and Kal is the Protoss version of Hwasin. Sure, Hwasin’s been around longer, but they play on the same team, and they both have sat on the cusp of true accomplishment more than their fair share of times. Fortunately for one of them, their career will take a noticeable advance at the conclusion of the series, but, as they are teammates, I’m not certain “sorry” will be enough for the loser. Overall, the game was a fairly pedestrian macro war on Odd-Eye. Kal’s macro is sharper than Hwasin’s, so Kal had the edge in any late game scenarios, but Hwasin is a scrappy player so there was no telling for sure who’d take the series. Hwasin entrenched and threw up turrets, incorrectly predicting any shuttle harassment, but also to reject observers, which they did. Hwasin seemed content to macro out of only two factories until he had most of his tech in place, while Kal fearlessly nabbed a third and fourth expansion as he teched to arbiters. Hwasin responded with expanding to a mineral only, floating the command center over and having it nearly be sniped by about eight dragoons. Hwasin brought a little dropship harassment into play which turned into an utter disaster as Hwasin lost the dropship, its contents, and a handful of vultures. And so, because Starcraft is a game of inches, Kal had the lead. I thought at the time that Kal had probably overplayed his hand because he chose to double expand and engage Hwasin’s forces. Kal won the battle, and stuffed Hwasin’s vulture harassment. With ten minutes to go in the game, Kal’s lead had swelled, and Hwasin needed a miracle. Kal wasn’t willing to relinquish a miracle, and instead making matters worse by sniping the command center at Hwasin’s third. Hwasin secured a fourth, trying to claw back into the game by sheer will, and took the opportunity of a recall at his natural to trade not even losing an unproductive base for one of Kal’s. Then Kal recalled into Hwasin’s main, and that’s where a Terran really hurts. Kal trashed the main while exchanging yet another expansion for it. A flank assault on Hwasin’s unprepared army finished it off and sealed the game for Kal.
Game 2: Match Point
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Match Point hasn’t been too kind to Protoss. When there are two players with nearly identical skill levels, the map has to be considered in figuring who is going to win, and there is no question Hwasin got a boost here from Match Point. The map is exactly what a Terran wants against Protoss. It has easily defensible expansion, easily acquired expansions, and the ramps encourage and reward good defensive positioning. Both opened with safe, standard expansions and moved thoughtlessly to taking thirds, while adding factories and gateways. Kal went to arbiters and Hwasin to vessels. Kal double expanded, and I think this is where Kal dramatically overplayed his hand. I think he hadn’t properly scouted Hwasin’s army, because he would have held back if he had, as Hwasin had nothing to sneeze at, though the threat of recall had made him timid. That timidity even encouraged Kal to take yet another expansion, though Hwasin himself had taken a fourth at the mineral only. Kal, hoping to press Hwasin even harder, attacked the mineral only and with a good couple of stasis fields managed to press but not break Hwasin’s defenses. Meanwhile, Hwasin had snuck a pair of tanks to Kal’s 10 o’clock and shelled the nexus to rubble. This was replicated at Kal’s 5 o’clock, but Hwasin paid the price as Kal again tried his fourth and this time forced a liftoff but Kal was soon driven away. Hwasin played his hand just right, destroying what remained of Kal’s 2 o’clock and then setting up on the high ground in front of it to defend against Kal’s attempt to retake it. Kal’s attacks failed and Hwasin took the 5 o’clock and gained enough ground to shell Kal’s 6 o’clock. Hwasin’s steady advances, textbook siege-and-control TvP, and up-step macro met and defeated Kal at nearly every encounter. After destroying the 6 o’clock nexus, Hwasin took it, and Kal desperately threw his forces at Hwasin and managed to push him back and even force a liftoff of Hwasin’s 5 o’clock. Hwasin was mostly mined out but Kal was as well, but Hwasin was able to set up defenses and reclaim his 5 o’clock and eventually drive Kal away from the 6 o’clock. Each attack was depleting Kal’s forces, and being nearly out of minerals he was unable to continue the aggression, and once he was sure of that, Kal left the game.
Game 3: Ultimatum
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Many people see cheese and boo. I applauded Hwasin this game. I was inclined to think he got a little lucky in the last game and he knew it, and he probably also knew that neither Kal nor Ultimatum were going to do him any favors. What I applaud is players playing to win, no matter what it takes, and not starting games with preconceived ideas of what’s a fair strategy and what isn’t, and in this game, Hwasin did exactly what he should have to take a difficult series off of a player who is superior in the matchup. His strategy was good, it was his execution and a little bit of luck that let him down. He cast the dice with double proxy rax before depot. At first things looked good. Kal, when he approached Hwasin’s main, did not see a building at the front and so not believing Hwasin would cheese he passed up the main without a scout. Hwasin’s scout wasn’t prompt enough, however, and his marines were late to the fight, giving Kal enough time to put down a shield battery. Hwasin managed to kill a lot of probes, but there’s no halfway or recovery from a 2 rax before depot proxy. Kal had two dragoons and a third on the way, and marines aren’t exactly a dragoon counter, especially without medics or upgrades. A little bit of micro picked off the marines (one dragoon had 14 kills), leaving Hwasin pretty much defenseless and sealing the game.
Game 4: Fighting Spirit
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I would wager this is where both players expected to be at this point. Hwasin made a wager to make it his advantage, and that wager had not paid off, and it was Kal’s turn. Hwasin served up a woefully predictable one fact expand and Kal was little better in his opening. Kal applied a little pressure at Hwasin’s front but his sim city was tight and the zealots couldn’t get close to the tanks. Kal realized he was going to have to sit tight for a moment and both players contently made their tech choices and played with typical passivity until Kal’s reaver came out. I can’t think Hwasin was very surprised when he saw the reaver, and even though it picked off a tank or two and wounded a few others, Hwasin should have been able to capitalize when he destroyed the reaver and Kal had moved in with dragoons. That’s the best-case scenario for a Terran when he comes at you with reavers—you kill the reaver, lose no SCVs, and you only lose a tank or two. There were only seven dragoons, but Hwasin was too timid and he let the dragoons take shots at his natural SCVs while blocking his ramp with a tank that was barely in range of any dragoons. When he fortified the cliff above with additional tanks Kal should have been repulsed, and he was, but Hwasin endured far more damage than he ought to have. Kal took the opportunity to expand, add gateways, and macro up a sizeable army of dragoons. And this is when Hwasin made his big mistake. He moved out. He did not properly scout how many units Kal had, or that Kal had a new reaver, and he emptied his base even though he’d gained no advantage in Kal’s attack on his main and his army, exposed in the middle and not seiged, stood absolutely no chance. Hwasin gg’d and Kal advanced to the Ro4.
MSLSemifinals Preview
Semifinal A
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Game 1: Odd-Eye
Game 2: Fighting Spirit
Game 3: Ultimatum
Game 4: Match Point
Game 5: Odd-Eye
The MSL Ro4 begins with a TvZ between heavy favorite Flash and the ever-scrappy Kwanro. In truth Flash shouldn’t be a heavy favorite here, but he definitely deserves to be a favorite. Though you probably wouldn’t guess it, Kwanro actually sits at #6 in the ELO rankings, and Flash of course is sitting at the top. #1 against #6, according to the numbers, is a match that should be close and go either way.
The first set is on Odd-Eye. Odd-Eye is exactly that, odd, in the way the games have played out on the map, but if a small sample size is to be believed than it has a significant pro Terran slant, but I’m going to go bold here. He does not make inspiring plays, but Kwanro at least shows he thinks and prepares, as demonstrated by his rout of Light. I think that Kwanro is going to push Flash with some early tactic or the super fast lair tactic that ZerO used against Flash. I know Flash is as solid as they come at cheese deflection and improvisation but Kwanro also has significantly underrated micro. The first set is a toss up, but I’m going with Kwanro to take the early lead.
The next set is one of the more solid maps in the MSL pool this season, Fighting Spirit. Don’t expect anything funky this game from Kwanro, because he seems to favor taking the second game safe. I would think that if Flash loses early in the first game to Kwanro he may bunker rush or try and put Kwanro off his game, but Flash should probably be content to ride his strong midgame into his stronger late game against Kwanro’s weaker mid and late game. I expect Flash to take every precaution if he gets burned by Kwanro’s antics, but I still think he could easily take on Kwanro even turreting like crazy. No matter what Kwanro does, I don’t think this will be a difficult game to Flash because his mental state will be locked in no matter the outcome of the first game and Fighting Spirit plays to Flash’s strengths. Probably a 1-1 or a 2-0 look with an edge to Flash at this point.
A funny thing about Kwanro is that he either seems to be locked in and playing smart or nothing goes his way. He has the ability to turn things around in the middle of a series but his brain seems to be all-in even if his units aren’t. What Kwanro chooses to do with Ultimatum is anyone’s guess, but I would be downright astonished if Flash chooses anything but 14 CC or 1 rax FE. Kwanro should know what his opponent is doing, so I hope he rubs some of the dust of the ZvT playbook and whips out 2 hatch lurker or in my wildest dreams some hydra/lurk which has been effective against Flash in the past. In another toss up, my gut goes Kwanro.
The fourth set is for Flash to put his foot down. If Flash deviates at all from his dogged predictability, it should be in this set, whether he’s up or down something atypical has its benefits here. To the extent we’ve seen mech on any of these maps, Match Point seems the best home for that, especially with the positioning emphasis the map has and the benefit tanks would bring to taking and holding large portions of ground. Kwanro looked sharp on Match Point against Light, but with all respect to Light, Flash is a different caliber of player, and he won’t miss what Light missed in that game. Flash should take this, and possibly seal the series. If everything goes right to Kwanro, we will go to a fifth set.
And we’re back on Odd-Eye, if we get here. As I wrote in my TLFE “A Finale in Five,” this is where the true caliber of a player is displayed, and I don’t think Kwanro has what it takes. I know that that’s an easy predication to make and an obvious choice, but it’s the truth. If Kwanro hasn’t won the series by the fifth set, which I doubt he will, he’ll not win it at all. Flash is too strong when it matters, and absolutely everything has to go right for Kwanro to win, and I just don’t see that happening. Flash will find himself in the NATE MSL Finals, and destiny will meet him there.
Semifinal B
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Game 1: Match Point
Game 2: Fighting Spirit
Game 3: Ultimatum
Game 4: Odd-Eye
Game 5: Match Point
Beware Jaedong fans: Kal is a dangerous opponent. It’s easy to overlook him because, frankly, Jaedong has rolled him in the past. But Kal is dangerous when he’s backed up in a corner and he has had very successful PvZ in the past. Jaedong’s also won 11 straight ZvP’s. So how crazy would it be to predict a Kal victory? Well, pretty crazy. Let me break it down:
Jaedong’s closest game against Stats was on Match Point, and Match Point doesn’t make things easy for Zerg, so if Jaedong loses a game at all, he’s going to lose this one. Remember, in the GOMTV MSL 4, Jaedong dropped the first game and then won the next 3. And made it look easy, too. If Kal looks strong at all, he’s going to look strong early, because Jaedong wears at you. Just watch every OSL finals he’s played in. But Kal is an undeniably strong player who has beaten Jaedong before and certainly had the capability to do it again, and Jaedong had a tendency to drop the first game. With more than a few things swinging his way, Kal has a strong chance to take this game. 1-0 Kal.
If Jaedong looked worst on Match Point, he’s looked best on Fighting Spirit. Kal looks comfortable on this map, but this game will be beyond Kal’s abilities. Kal is at his best with corsair play, and better with DTs after that, and I can’t even remember the last time that Jaedong lost because of DTs or reavers. Corsairs have no power against Jaedong, whose scourge appear to have homing capabilities. Kal will have to defend his corsairs because if he can’t scout Jaedong, he has no prayer to wins any of these games. Jaedong should use some tricky spire build here and shut down Kal’s corsairs and that will be both the beginning and the end of this game. Series ties, 1-1.
Expect Jaedong’s fury not to end on Fighting Spirit. If Kal can’t get his corsair game going, he can expect his woes to continue. I like Ultimatum for mutalisk openings in ZvP, especially because a greedy Protoss will go for sair/reaver and take the islands, and I would not be surprised if that’s exactly what Kal does. If Kal chooses that route, I think this game could be brutal. Jaedong doesn’t even appear irritated by corsairs at times, and he certainly ignores them when there’s something bigger at stake, and there hasn’t been much sair/reaver love of late because it’s still just as hard to pull off as it was 8 months ago. Jaedong shouldn’t flinch here, and I expect a swarm of hydralisks to overwhelm Kal’s main to bring the series to 2-1 Jaedong.
The fourth set will be played on Odd-Eye. One thing that sticks out in my mind about Jaedong is that he isn’t afraid to do risky things, but he only takes risks when he’s in a commanding position. Most people do it the other way around, which is why I suspect he’s so successful with it. Jaedong 5 pools in series games, in fact, he does it with surprising frequency. Most Zergs go through their careers without every doing something as stinky as a 5 pool, but Jaedong is not afraid of the risk. He’s used it against even the highest caliber of opponents. What does all of this have to do with this game on Odd-Eye? What I’m trying to say is that I’m expecting something cheesy from Jaedong. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 5 pool or a 2 hatch muta or a cannon break, especially if he’s in the lead, and I’m positive Kal would be absolutely unprepared for it unless he scouts it, but I don’t expect him even to be looking for it. If Kal gets a little lucky, and Jaedong doesn’t do anything bold, I expect Kal to have a shot at winning this game. The expansions are reasonably defensible and if Kal is a little creative he has a chance to surprise Jaedong with maybe a 2 gate or in my wildest dreams, carriers. But I don’t expect Kal to be bold, and I expect Jaedong to be Jaedong. So, that being what it is, I expect Jaedong to win and take the series 3-1.
If I’m wrong, and the Kal manages to take another game, and we end up at a fifth set, I will hold to my overall series predication of a Jaedong win for precisely those reasons I listed at the commencement of this preview. Jaedong is on a monstrous ZvP winstreak; he’s won 4 straight against Kal in all manner of venues, and he looked extremely sharp against Stats. I also think Jaedong will be playing possessed for a chance at revenge against Flash for what happened in the OSL, and I still expect him to get his chance.
We’re entering the final stages on the MSL, and there is something very big to get excited about: the prospect of a Jaedong v Flash finals. Forget the Classic S1. Forget the EVER OSL. We’re probably gonna have a Jaedong v Flash finals, right here in the NATE MSL, and there’s no greater stage to have it on.