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Why To Lynch Willz
On April 12 2012 09:16 willz22912 wrote:
If the rest of you are going to let that comment by Dittert slide, I'm going to be unhappy. That comment was 100% useless and even if he is town I'm willing to sacrifice him to weed out the real scum.
First Mafia slip: why would you want to kill a townie just for posting a stupid suggestion? You even say specifically that his town flip would help "weeding out the real scum"... How exactly? It's not like a bandwagon on Dittert for his stupid play and a town flip would reveal anything useful for us, especially if there would be just a bandwagon on him and nothing else during Day 1. It would be a dream come true for Mafia, not for town.
On April 14 2012 04:07 willz22912 wrote:
It's better to have me martyr myself for town than to try and save me at this point.
In hindsight, this looks like potentially suiciding and denying additional information about Mafia connections for town. It's always better to say everything you have and prove your innocence: at the very least others will have something to discuss about next when you flip town. If you suicide as town, you just deny information and give a free kill for Mafia. If you suicide as Mafia, you protect your teammates and confuse town.
On April 16 2012 02:52 willz22912 wrote:
Would you not agree that lynching someone who clammed up isn't as helpful as someone who tried to push cases on a lot of people without weight?
Here, just so my opinion is clear: ##Vote: Xatalos
So it's better to lynch an active poster than a lurker, regardless of what you think of our Mafia probabilities? Lurkers benefit Mafia, active posters benefit town.
On April 17 2012 23:18 willz22912 wrote:
If Acro doesn't get shot tonight, there is no other explanation other than that he is Mafia, he has been too visible for a town to be left alive this long. If Acro gets shot tonight, then Xatalos is probably Mafia for trying to buddy/defend Acro so hard (I will add more on to this as night rolls over, have to head to class soon.)
Malicious WIFOM making Acrofales look "bad" once KharadBanar or someone else with high credibility gets killed instead. Possibly a Mafia strategy to plant suspicion on Acrofales beforehand with this really weak WIFOM.
I'm in a hurry so this'll have to do, I'll be back later!
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EBWOP: and when I say "town continue without me", I mean in the case that mafia shoots me. If it doesn't I will continue my frenetic activity to keep everybody posting.
KB: any take on HiroPro's will? And the night happenings? I have you as a town read, so stay active and fight the apathy! Think of Newbie VI: you started the game lynching two townies and fought back to victory! We can do this.
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United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 18 2012 03:57 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2012 03:34 imallinson wrote:On April 18 2012 03:29 Acrofales wrote:On April 18 2012 03:21 imallinson wrote:On April 18 2012 03:11 Acrofales wrote:On April 18 2012 02:23 imallinson wrote:On April 18 2012 01:57 Acrofales wrote:On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote:
My proposal for the scum team:
Scum #1: Xatalos
I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow.
Scum #2: Acrofales
Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day.
Scum #3
Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities.
Dittert:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch.
yomi:
This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives.
vonKlaust:
This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3
Funcmode:
It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment.
Willz:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz
Kharad:
I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town.
So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read):
#1: Xatalos (90%)
#2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not)
#3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise) Okay, I like that you're posting  If we forget about connections for a second, who would be your second-highest scum read. Because, apparently I am only scum if Xatalos flips red. If he flips green, then town is dead and I don't even get a chance. So, imagine Xatalos is green (despite thinking it's unlikely), who else might be scum at this point? At lylo we need to find 1 scum, not 3. That was one of the major things that I did wrong in thinking HiroPro was scum yesterday. My nightly reads will do the same: go back to basics and analyse players individually for scummy traits. No more connections, we worry about those AFTER we find the first scum. Ignoring any connections. I'd say #2 is Dittert and #3 is Willz pretty much for the same reasons you are suspicious of them. Although this hits the same problem as the connection stuff. If my #1 scum read isn't scum it's not going to matter who I think is #2 because we would already have lost. No. This is not the same. This is your reads RIGHT NOW. You are suspicious of Xatalos, Dittert and Willz. That is good info to have. At the moment we have to lynch 1 scum. If we do that, THEN we can look at his connections. If we lynch Xatalos and he flips scum, then my defense of him was my second giant error of the game. But we make that connection when it happens. Keep an open mind for the moment and don't get stuck in what-if scenarios. Analyse the past, not the future. I am interested in knowing why you're suspicious of Dittert. I said I draw a blank on Dittert. I think it's quite probable that he's scum. He has not contributed anything to the town, except a stubborn insistence that Willz and Yomi are scum, without actually trying to convince town. I made a mistake reading Hiro's empty filter and strange hops of reasoning as a scum filter and refuse to make that same mistake: I am thus thoroughly confused by Dittert. My case for vig shooting him is far more pragmatic than that. Although, at the moment I am thinking Willz is scum again and would be happy to vote alongside "crazy ol' Dittert". So. Why the read as Dittert being scum? While I'm trying to coax people out of silence. Dittert, you updated your case on Willz at the start of D2 and I have not much to comment on that, but what do you think of Yomi now? Still scum? Or is someone else Willz' scumbuddy? Because he doesn't contribute much besides his constant insistence that Willz is scum. He started of being really meek and unsure of his ideas then Night 1 starts berating everyone for being idiots and did the same Night 2. This reeks of trying to make yourself seems pro town because you never voted for the townie that got lynched. His posting doesn't make much sense to me if he is town. Did HiroPro's posting make sense as a townie? No, but we can't just dismiss everyone's posting as "well they might just be playing town badly" or we get absolutely nowhere. Thank you. However, starting D3 with everybody voting Dittert, because he is a non-contributing lurker is going to kill discussion just as surely as it did on D2. I am completely in favour of Dittert getting shot, because he really isn't contributing and I realise that I was wrong yesterday in calling for the vig to hold his shot if he wasn't sure. Regardless of whether you're sure, discussing a Dittert lynch will kill discussion and we have no real clue whether we're right or wrong. The problem at lylo is that we NEED to lynch scum. All we know about Dittert is that he WILL behave erratically. I do NOT want to lynch erratic behaviour, I want to lynch scum. If we have a vig shot, Dittert needs to be killed. This will also give a crapton of info on Willz' alignment, who is currently skyrocketing my scumometer. I trust this town to continue without me, but it must NOT discuss a Dittert lynch, as it is pointless. So yeah: vig, if you exist, I urge you to shoot Dittert, regardless of alliance. If the vig is Dittert himself: shoot your strongest scumread (hint, Willz  ) and CLAIM the shot!
Yeah I'm all for not discussing a Dittert lynch, it won't get us anywhere just like Day 2. It's why I was talking about Xatalos. I'm wondering why you think Willz is the more likely than Xatalos to be scum. I'm worried I'm tunnelling on Xatalos and would like to look at alternatives.
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On April 18 2012 04:06 Acrofales wrote:
EBWOP: and when I say "town continue without me", I mean in the case that mafia shoots me. If it doesn't I will continue my frenetic activity to keep everybody posting.
KB: any take on HiroPro's will? And the night happenings? I have you as a town read, so stay active and fight the apathy! Think of Newbie VI: you started the game lynching two townies and fought back to victory! We can do this.
Yeah I'm still awake and somewhat reading the thread so I may as well post as much as I can before going to bed.
Concerning Hiro's testament:
I already stated what I think of the Acrofales case, namely that I don't believe him to be a likely scum.
About the Xatalos thing, I think he's still likelier to be scum than you believe Acrofales, but not as highly as Hiro put it ("Lynch first, ask questions later")
He mentions Dittert once and I basically also think that your reasoning (shoot him tonight no matter what) is a bit better than what Hiro proposed (he said don't lynch which is technically a superset to your instructions but sounds as if we should keep him alive).
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Once again, sorry for not being so active. I'll read your posts from last night now and try to make something out of it.
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EWOBO:
From this night I mean.
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On April 18 2012 04:08 imallinson wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2012 03:57 Acrofales wrote:On April 18 2012 03:34 imallinson wrote:On April 18 2012 03:29 Acrofales wrote:On April 18 2012 03:21 imallinson wrote:On April 18 2012 03:11 Acrofales wrote:On April 18 2012 02:23 imallinson wrote:On April 18 2012 01:57 Acrofales wrote:On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote:
My proposal for the scum team:
Scum #1: Xatalos
I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow.
Scum #2: Acrofales
Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day.
Scum #3
Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities.
Dittert:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch.
yomi:
This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives.
vonKlaust:
This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3
Funcmode:
It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment.
Willz:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz
Kharad:
I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town.
So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read):
#1: Xatalos (90%)
#2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not)
#3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise) Okay, I like that you're posting If we forget about connections for a second, who would be your second-highest scum read. Because, apparently I am only scum if Xatalos flips red. If he flips green, then town is dead and I don't even get a chance. So, imagine Xatalos is green (despite thinking it's unlikely), who else might be scum at this point? At lylo we need to find 1 scum, not 3. That was one of the major things that I did wrong in thinking HiroPro was scum yesterday. My nightly reads will do the same: go back to basics and analyse players individually for scummy traits. No more connections, we worry about those AFTER we find the first scum. Ignoring any connections. I'd say #2 is Dittert and #3 is Willz pretty much for the same reasons you are suspicious of them. Although this hits the same problem as the connection stuff. If my #1 scum read isn't scum it's not going to matter who I think is #2 because we would already have lost. No. This is not the same. This is your reads RIGHT NOW. You are suspicious of Xatalos, Dittert and Willz. That is good info to have. At the moment we have to lynch 1 scum. If we do that, THEN we can look at his connections. If we lynch Xatalos and he flips scum, then my defense of him was my second giant error of the game. But we make that connection when it happens. Keep an open mind for the moment and don't get stuck in what-if scenarios. Analyse the past, not the future. I am interested in knowing why you're suspicious of Dittert. I said I draw a blank on Dittert. I think it's quite probable that he's scum. He has not contributed anything to the town, except a stubborn insistence that Willz and Yomi are scum, without actually trying to convince town. I made a mistake reading Hiro's empty filter and strange hops of reasoning as a scum filter and refuse to make that same mistake: I am thus thoroughly confused by Dittert. My case for vig shooting him is far more pragmatic than that. Although, at the moment I am thinking Willz is scum again and would be happy to vote alongside "crazy ol' Dittert". So. Why the read as Dittert being scum? While I'm trying to coax people out of silence. Dittert, you updated your case on Willz at the start of D2 and I have not much to comment on that, but what do you think of Yomi now? Still scum? Or is someone else Willz' scumbuddy? Because he doesn't contribute much besides his constant insistence that Willz is scum. He started of being really meek and unsure of his ideas then Night 1 starts berating everyone for being idiots and did the same Night 2. This reeks of trying to make yourself seems pro town because you never voted for the townie that got lynched. His posting doesn't make much sense to me if he is town. Did HiroPro's posting make sense as a townie? No, but we can't just dismiss everyone's posting as "well they might just be playing town badly" or we get absolutely nowhere. Thank you. However, starting D3 with everybody voting Dittert, because he is a non-contributing lurker is going to kill discussion just as surely as it did on D2. I am completely in favour of Dittert getting shot, because he really isn't contributing and I realise that I was wrong yesterday in calling for the vig to hold his shot if he wasn't sure. Regardless of whether you're sure, discussing a Dittert lynch will kill discussion and we have no real clue whether we're right or wrong. The problem at lylo is that we NEED to lynch scum. All we know about Dittert is that he WILL behave erratically. I do NOT want to lynch erratic behaviour, I want to lynch scum. If we have a vig shot, Dittert needs to be killed. This will also give a crapton of info on Willz' alignment, who is currently skyrocketing my scumometer. I trust this town to continue without me, but it must NOT discuss a Dittert lynch, as it is pointless. So yeah: vig, if you exist, I urge you to shoot Dittert, regardless of alliance. If the vig is Dittert himself: shoot your strongest scumread (hint, Willz ) and CLAIM the shot! Yeah I'm all for not discussing a Dittert lynch, it won't get us anywhere just like Day 2. It's why I was talking about Xatalos. I'm wondering why you think Willz is the more likely than Xatalos to be scum. I'm worried I'm tunnelling on Xatalos and would like to look at alternatives.
Okay, it was going to be part of my night deadline post, but I'm no longer very afraid of being shot. I am quite confident this town will manage to pull out a victory without me (a lot more so than during D2. My giant mistake has knocked my ego down a peg and I want to focus tonight on getting people posting and active). If mafia shoots me then my spurr on to be active and scumhunt is given extra importance. If mafia doesn't shoot me then I believe they will live to regret it.
I believe I was on the right track on D1. However, his defense made a lot of sense at the time and he was an active poster. My getting drunk and going absent obviously didn't help and the short bit that I posted was true at the time: his defense made sense, his case against BroodKing didn't, but I didn't have the conviction I did when I posted the case. In the D2 events I sorta forgot about Willz. He lapsed into inactivity together with everybody else and as I said before: posts can be analysed, silence cannot.
He did make + Show Spoiler [this] +On April 16 2012 23:37 willz22912 wrote:@ Dittert Hi again, guess you're not willing to let yourself die just yet after all? (What was the point of the martyrdom post then when we all suck according to you and feelings shouldn't be considered in this game?) Also helpful note, you never unvoted yourself after your martyrdom post so the bot that checks votes will still count it on yourself, so you better revote me and first do a ##Unvote:. Also considering I'm not one of the two likely lynches for this day, that vote sure will come in handy in a tiebreaker situation! Well, at least you're consistent I guess, which is something I can't say for Xatalos. However will you please answer one thing? If you like to point out lies so much, can you correct your statement here: Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 23:53 Dittert wrote:@Xatalos I think you have a decent case against ArcticFox, and I would feel comfortable voting for him Day 1 (as things stand right now). That being said, I am actually even more suspicious of willz22912. He's lurking now (or sleeping, or at work) after posting a decent number of posts in the first 2 hours of the game. In those posts, he says a couple of things that catch my attention. First, On April 12 2012 09:05 willz22912 wrote:
Lynch all liars is dumb, don't dwell on that.. How does that not scream scum? It's not just that he doesn't want a Lynch all Liars policy (which would in theory encourage, or at least allow for, lying), but he dismisses it out of hand. "Don't dwell on liars" is exactly the kind of thing scum would say. Second, we have this gem: On April 12 2012 09:16 willz22912 wrote:
If the rest of you are going to let that comment by Dittert slide, I'm going to be unhappy. That comment was 100% useless and even if he is town I'm willing to sacrifice him to weed out the real scum. Town willing to kill other town? Even a bad townie (or a townie with a bad idea) is still a townie. It seems to me that this is a numbers game, and you should want as many people on your team alive as possible. I think willz22912 saw my bad RNG play as an opportunity to get the town to lynch one of their own, hence all the commotion about it. That ArcticFox immediately joined willz makes me even more suspicious of him (him being AF). So basically, you were wrong (we were all wrong) for doubting ArcticFox, since he's the only pro-town player that has flipped. Arctic had many reasons to be suspicious of you as well, but you're going to ignore that because part of his filter mentions myself and Yomi, and that's what you want to use in your case, ignoring the part that incriminates you. So you claim to be consistent in your tunneling of me, fine, I'm assuming you've read my filter so you've seen that I've been consistent in defending you because I think you're town and that town should always try and defend other town. I could be wrong because I don't know for sure, but all your actions can be explained to either being a newb town or a scummy Mafia. Secondly, your basis on your original and continuing suspicion on me is a lie, I have never pushed for your mis-lynch, and for you to claim otherwise would be to put words in my mouth. My vote on Xatalos is pretty much shooting in the dark for his motivations for pushing Yomi and switching to myself after Acro's case and then defending me. I just like Hiro's case against him and the spam he has done so far hasn't really helped much, I am also using the reasoning that Xatalos flipping would give us more information than Dittert flipping considering Xatalos has been much more spammy and all over the place. This is not good reasoning, but then again a lot of you voted Dittert for martyring himself and now that he's back, you're willing to change all the voting. I'll be in class for most of today, back at 6pm EST to see what's happened.
+ Show Spoiler [Once again, the vig shot] +
It pains me to continue to call for a vig shot on Dittert, but flipping him now gives us information at no real risk (I am sorry to be harsh, but Dittert has contributed very little this game, even though his read on Willz could be spot on). A vig shooting Willz means that if I am wrong and Willz flips town, we have shot a potentially valuable asset. Given that reads are never 100%, I think shooting Dittert is currently the best option.
He promised to be more active and assertive in D2. Instead we get this:
+ Show Spoiler [wishy washy] +On April 17 2012 07:07 willz22912 wrote:
I just got back from class, took a read through the thread. I'm willing to change my vote off Xatalos, I never really had a good reason to lynch him today other than fishing for information from his flip.
I've said before that I saw HiroPro as a little suspicious, he hasn't really contributed nearly as much as other people and seems to fly under the radar, the first time I took note of him was the case he posted against Xatalos D2 that got that bandwagon started.
I'm willing to admit that my read of Dittert as newb town can really be called into question now and that I may have been blinded by my willingness to see what I wanted to see based on the actions so far. I can see the connection between HiroPro and Dittert, and I'm beginning to question how townie a person would be for consistently tunneling one person all game.
However, since we can only lynch one person today, which is it going to be? Dittert or HiroPro seems to be the split. If Hiro flips red it gives a lot of weight to the assumptions that Dittert is red as well. I'm still hesitant to write off Dittert(I don't know, I've held onto this opinion all game of him being newbie town, I'd be really sad to be proven wrong) so I'd prefer to vote Hiro for now and let his flip decide what I think about Dittert. So accordingly:
##Unvote: Xatalos
##Vote: HiroPro
Finally, the main thing I think we need is information to either ferret out remaining scum or help clear suspicious town, this was the main reason I voted Xatalos, I felt like his flip would at least give a lot more information than a Dittert one. However with Acrofales connection reasoning, it could be possible Hiro/Dittert are both scum, but we need to lynch one of them to confirm, and Hiro flipping scum would incriminate Dittert more so than the other way around imo.
This looks like complete apathy to who is lynched, hidden under a thin veneer of "we get information". Granted, this is not much of a tell. The bandwagon on Hiro was starting to go and my case was apparently very convincing. This post has an acceptable townie explanation, so it is more a feeling: he does not seem interested in finding scum. He focuses on the "information" part. I was convinced Hiro was scum. The information comes automatically with lynching scum. Just look at it, we lynched Hiro, he was green (blue) and that gave us NO information. At the moment even funcnode flipping scum would give us something to work with, but almost nobody gives information when flipping green, unless they were HEAVILY accused at some point during the game (so people are rightfully suspicious of me and my push against Hiro).
Now all of this would probably have slipped right by, if he had not gone out of the way to pre-wifom the night kill. That post is EXCEEDINGLY suspicious and I have made that case + Show Spoiler [here] +On April 18 2012 01:52 Acrofales wrote:Okay, I see I missed a post by Willz and it is an interesting one too. I am sorry, but this post reaks of wifom. I can smell this setup a mile away and I would like to show the entire town how it works. Show nested quote +On April 17 2012 23:18 willz22912 wrote:
If you're under the impression you will be shot, feel free to post this night. I completely agree and will be posting actively! Show nested quote +However, the following players are under suspicion, myself, Xatalos, Yomi, Dittert. Any of these players being shot would not make sense in Mafia's line of thinking, we are too easy cases to push for a mis-lynch. Acro you better start posting your heart out if you think you're going to be killed off today, as I quote your lovely farewell post to Arctic: On April 15 2012 08:04 Acrofales wrote:
ArcticFox: too townie to live, too quiet to get protected. He will be missed. Now people. Lets get scumhunting.
##vote Dittert Now that town has successfully killed their own doctor (/facepalm) we can probably assume that Hiro probably medic'd Acro N1 because he had the most towncred among us. There are two explanations for Arctic being shot instead, Mafia assumed there was a medic and Acro would be on the most obvious target, so they switched to target #2 Arctic, or Acro is Mafia and they knew Arctic was either on the right track or the town with the most towncred. We can in no way shape or form assume Hiro did such a thing. However, scum fearing that a medic would protect me is a plausible reason not to shoot me. I agree that my goodbye post summarised Arctic's death quite succinctly. I cannot prove the second situation is not true unless I die, but the mere fact that situation is in your minds should've made Willz think before posting he posted the rest of his WIFOM. Show nested quote +
Also I find this defense by Xatalos of Acrofales troubling. Especially the DT talk, DT cannot be claimed at this point and proven, Mafia can easily counter-claim, all you're doing is making it easier for the Mafia to bluesnipe, very untownlike.
Agreed about the DT bit. Why are you linking the DT bit to his defense of me, though? Show nested quote +
If Acro doesn't get shot tonight, there is no other explanation other than that he is Mafia, he has been too visible for a town to be left alive this long. If Acro gets shot tonight, then Xatalos is probably Mafia for trying to buddy/defend Acro so hard (I will add more on to this as night rolls over, have to head to class soon.)
Hrmmm, how about this for a catch 22 scenario. However, this is particularly insidious wifom. It is wifom about stuff that hasn't even happened yet. You are planting the idea, so that if I am not shot, all you have to do is refer back here and say: see, he must be scum. I refuse to wifom your wifom, but suffice it to say this awarded you qutie a few points on my scumometer. Show nested quote +
Don't forget Acrofales and Xatalos were both scum in GoT Mafia (which they won) so they have good experience of what to do as Mafia. They also can play 100% completely opposite of what they did in GoT because of meta arguments.
Bingo, another catch 22. If I (and Xata) were to have the same style as in GoT mafia, we would clearly be mafia: we have the same style. However, by changing our style we are ALSO clearly mafia, because we would totally have changed up our playstyle! The whole point why meta-arguments work is because it is VERY difficult to change your playstyle. In other words: confirmation bias much? Show nested quote + They've both referenced what "Mafia should do" as part of their thinking, and then pointed out how they couldn't possibly be Mafia because they haven't done what "Mafia should do." This is flimsy reasoning, especially for a newbie game, people make mistakes and not optimal play, we've seen that numerous times in this game, trying to defend yourself by saying this is not what Mafia would do (what Xatalos has done) should not be a good defense. And another catch 22? If I act townie I am clearly scum, because I am NOT doing anything scummy! The whole point of this game is that mafia does not want to help scumhunt, wants to shit up the thread and wants to stay hidden. That case can be made against Xatalos, but I am finding it harder and harder to read him accurately. Suffice it to say, his playstyle is EXTREMELY different from GoT. He is also only displaying one of the many scum tells: he shits up the thread with useless wifom. Other than that he is (hyper)active and willing to commit to his cases (and makes them. I challenge you to find a single focused case by Xatalos in GoT mafia). Which reminds me, Willz, have you committed to anything yet, this game, except for your erroneous BroodKing case?Willz managed to drop off my scumometer in the whole D2 debacle, but this post just reminded me of why I fingered him as scum in the first place. Thanks! Show nested quote +Also notice Xatalos trying to discredit HiroPro's last testament and will, even though he didn't manage to finish his thoughts in time, HiroPro was 100% town, and he may have been on to something. Remember what he said, ignore Xatalos and look at Acro's filter.
HiroPro was town, not an oracle. If you and your scumbuddies really manage to convince the town to lynch me, you will see that a townie can still be completely and absolutely 100% wrong: I was on HiroPro and he is about me.
I can read nothing useful in this and can explain it in plenty of scummy ways. Building on my D1 case, this makes me very very very suspicious of Willz.
To sum it up:
1. Imho, the most scummy post anybody has posted in this thread yet.
2. A lack of activity during D2, despite promising otherwise.
3. Possible apathy about the D2 vote.
4. A strange Willz/Dittert link.
I would still like to go back and read Willz' other games (aperture and a noobie game, if I recall), and go over Dittert's case on Willz again, but I need to go and cook. Hopefully I have time before the nightpost. I don't think I'll have time to post a decent nightly reads, but for the possibility I get shot, you will at the very least get my unpolished notes and a brief summary of my top scum reads (which I am having trouble with at the moment. My top 1 is clear, my top 3 is tricky).
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You have a good point there, actually. In GoT, I never committed to anything. I just coasted by the flow of the thread and hoped to be unnoticed. Willz has been doing exactly the same, disregarding his case against BroodKingEXE (even THAT felt somewhat forced and uncommitting). Our best bet is definitely to lynch him right now. I'm still pondering about who the other two might be, and I'll probably post that before deadline just in case... Although I'd say Acrofales and KharadBanar, you two have a lot more to fear from Mafia right now. Post all you got before deadline to make sure.
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I'm going to give my analysis of everyone's post since the lynching of HiroPro. For the record I began writing this post at about 5PM CET.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 08:02 willz22912 wrote:
For fucks sake.
- Suggests genuine disappointment.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 08:02 vonKlaust wrote:
Oh, Lol.
- Disbelief verging on amusement, a semi-genuine sense of disappointment.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 08:04 vonKlaust wrote:
Well fuck shit my hell. Sucky sucky I don't like this. I need to sleep, good night!
- Compounds earlier disappointment.
- 2 minutes, 2 posts but not much said (I'll expand on this later).
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 08:06 KharadBanar wrote:
.......
At least we now have a pretty solid read on Xatalos.
Also with that I'm off for the night, beginning work for my bachelor thesis tomorrow. Good Night!
-Points a finger at Xatalos.
-Hard to gauge much else from this post, excuses self-quickly but with sound reasoning, a some-what enthusiastic "Good Night!"?
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 08:06 Xatalos wrote:
........ Well, my theory is trashed then. I can't believe why he lurked so hard and never defended himself until now though. So, I guess... Dittert and imallinson town? Me and yomi suspicious? I'm not really sure where to go next anymore.
- To be fair, the switch from yourself to HiroPro happened in a matter of hours, it's reasonable to assume he just didn't have the chance to really defend himself given how quickly things happened and how close to the deadline it was. [This is really important and I'll expand on this later on]
- Slight confusion mongering, but suggests Dittert and imallinson are town but himself and Yomi are potentially suspicious.
- I get a slight sense of real confusion but overall a bit of a scummy vibe here, I don't get why you'd name yourself as suspicious except to include Yomi in it with you.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 08:07 willz22912 wrote:
That explains Hiro's lurking, he didn't want to draw attention to himself as a blue role.
Sigh, ok town is really fucked at this point since we're going to be at 5-3 at the end of this night. However, I'm taking a harder look at Acro, it was his lead here that got us to lynch Hiro and I know for sure I'm town and he made that case against me. It may be OMGUS on my part, but I'm willing to lynch him D3.
- A few minutes to think after his first post (which suggested genuine disappointment, frustration - which is echoed in the words of this post).
- The Hiro-lurking-to-avoid-attention-as-blue makes a lot of sense to me. He was town so obviously had nothing else to hide.
- Says will take a harder look at Acro but already willing to lynch him D3 - not sure yet if there's much in this but might be worth noting.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 08:12 Xatalos wrote:
Really elusive Mafia, they have blended in so well. I want to see what this means for the connections Acrofales has been spending his time with. And I guess my credibility just went down the drain... If Dittert and imallinson are town, and I know I'm town (although most will probably now think I'm Mafia), what's left? yomi? funcmode? Dunno. I don't know how we're going to win this now though, with no good leads, Doctor dead, even Acrofales under scrutiny. I'm going to sleep, maybe I can think of something for tomorrow.
- Again a bit of a confusion-mongering vibe from this post rather than genuine confusion himself.
- Again mentions Dittert and imallinson as likely town, and again points the finger at Yomi and now myself. I know I'm town, and I also get a bit of a null but semi-town read from Yomi. Planting seeds, I think if Xatalos is scum then Yomi and myself are probably the easiest people for him to begin to target next.
- Strong defense of Acrofales - "even Acrofales under scrutiny."
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 08:13 Acrofales wrote:
I am never ever trusting in connections again. I don't understand how I was so wrong. And that's why I belong in this noobie game. I understand I have lost your trust. I was really convinced we were on the right track. Well. We have a night to sort this mess out, rethink and regroup. Please do as Hiro asked, go over my filter. I have nothing to hide and will respond to whatever you want. I was wrong and completely misread Hiro's filter. Sorry. It's bedtime here in Spain too. See you tomorrow.
- Immediately cements himself as a noob (i.e. a town)
- Very defensive but the language used doesn't give me much of a scum or town read here.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 08:13 vonKlaust wrote:
Haha, I really like the dramatic style in Hiro's last post. If this was a murder mystery movie it would be a super exciting one. I have actually been thinking about reading closer into Acros filter. I have had a feeling that I've been following him a tad too blindly. We'll see what happens. Now I really need to sleep.
Nighty night fellow townies! <3
Fuck you scum bastards. On April 17 2012 08:13 vonKlaust wrote:
EBWOWP: I reallize that maybe was a bit to harsh. I appologize, I love everyone.
- This post initially came off as a little strange to me. The "Haha" and bit about it being an exciting mystery movie seem to suggest a bit of a lackadaisical state of mind, as opposed to the frustration and disappointment I would expect from a townie at this moment.
- "Been thinking about" reading closer into Acro. "Had a feeling," "We'll see what happens" - this language seems a bit weird, a bit lazy and not super pro-town. I really want to believe vonK is town at this point but this post doesn't give much to go on.
- The end (<3 townies, fuck scum) I think could easily be something a town or scum would say, but then the EBWOWP and the fact that this is still only ~9 minutes after the announcement give it some more legitimacy in my eyes.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 08:26 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2012 08:13 vonKlaust wrote:
Haha, I really like the dramatic style in Hiro's last post. If this was a murder mystery movie it would be a super exciting one. I have actually been thinking about reading closer into Acros filter. I have had a feeling that I've been following him a tad too blindly. We'll see what happens. Now I really need to sleep.
Nighty night fellow townies! <3
Fuck you scum bastards. LOL. I guess you could ask for the right to edit that, it's a bit... against the rules...? Sigh. I'm all out of ideas right now. Maybe the night shot will help a bit, but then it's already almost 50% share of us being Mafia. Maybe the Detective will make a lucky hit... Finding just ONE Mafia would make it so much easier to figure this all out. I guess yomi is Mafia after all? Although I can't really blame him for suspecting HiroPro - I and Acrofales did the same. Maybe I can think of something to contribute yet later. Good night!
- Again points the finger at Yomi, this is the third time in three seperate posts, in less than 25 minutes since the lynching.
- "LOL..." This line doesn't do much but distract, it's irrelevant and the "LOL" suggests a relatively upbeat mood but I don't think it's too much to read into.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 08:34 imallinson wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2012 07:57 funcmode wrote:
Well, I've stated twice now that I suspect imallinson quite highly and he's had a couple of chances to address my suspicions but said nothing. Maybe it's because he doesn't think my opinion's are worth much so it's better for him to just ignore them than risk putting himself in the spotlight, though I guess there's potentially town-mentality in that approach too.
Can you explain your reasoning for suspecting me beyond my (up until recently and beyond my control) lurking and the fact that I thought Dittert might be townie after all (though I still maintained high suspicion and many others shared the same opinion at one point or another)? You have said you are suspicious of me but not really why. I can't respond unless I have something specific to respond to. As for you I have a completely neutral read you haven't posted enough for me to get a good read yet.
- This is his first post since the lynching, and doesn't even mention it. Doesn't seem the slightest bit concerned with the fact that we just lynched another townie and are losing the game. Only concerned with himself and quite deftly deflects my suspicions, doesn't contribute anything pro-town whatsoever.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 09:54 Dittert wrote:
Two times I come home from work and two times I see an idiotic bandwagon that results in the town lynching another townie.
I might as well start writing up my post for D3 so you all can ignore it again...
Sigh.
- This post comes off as a bit strange to me too. Suggests some genuine desperation/disappointment but also focuses negatively on town errors ("idiotic bandwagon," "so you can all ignore it again..."). This could be interpreted as a genuinely exasperated townie or a scum looking to make himself seem like one. I'm leaning slightly towards the former given past events but not by a whole lot. If Dittert is town he really needs to start being genuinely more pro-town and stop being so defeatist.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 15:06 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2012 09:54 Dittert wrote:
Two times I come home from work and two times I see an idiotic bandwagon that results in the town lynching another townie.
I might as well start writing up my post for D3 so you all can ignore it again...
Sigh. Here you go again... It wasn't idiotic, it looked like the best Mafia read in my eyes. And had he been Mafia, his flip would have also heavily implicated you and imallinson. Of course since he wasn't (in hindsight, which you seem to love), this doesn't reveal too much about player relations. All I can think of is that yomi is more suspicious, I am more suspicious, Acrofales is more suspicious. imallinson is less suspicious, Dittert is less suspicious. I guess HiroPro was just being genuinely AFK and arrived to the thread at convenient timings for himself. OR he was lurking and trying to hide his role (which I don't like at all, since he could get easily Vigi shot at night for example). However, one thing occurred to me: is there a real reason for myself, yomi or Acrofales to push for HiroPro if we'd be Mafia and Dittert town? In that case, Dittert was already on the road to being lynched, but we noticed a possible connection between HiroPro and Dittert and decided to lynch HiroPro instead. Me & yomi as a Mafia team doesn't really make sense either, we have been opposed whole game even while the discussion focus has been elsewhere. In addition, nobody really stepped in to defend either of us, which makes me think this could have been a heated/vocal town & town argument. Mafia & town is still somewhat possible, though. I'll read through Acrofales's filter a bit later to determine if there is sense in HiroPro's accusations. I'll also have to read vonKlaust's filter. I think he's town at the moment, but he has kind of avoided attention so far and followed the town "consensus" quite eagerly. Funcmode can't be read very effectively yet, but his first analysis post was... A bit lacking, and possibly just meant for continued flying under the radar. I should also read the filters of KharadBanar and Dittert again while at it.
-Lots in here to look at, first suggests the bandwagon (which he started) wasn't idiotic. Gives himself credibility.
-Suggests Hiro's flip doesn't reveal much about player relations - convenient as Hiro's last post condemned both Xatalos and Acro.
-Suggests suspicion initially (again, 4th time) of Yomi. Then expands by saying himself, Acro are also more suspicious. But imallinson and Dittert are less suspicious.
-Wonders if there's a 'real' reason why himself, Yomi or Acro would push for a vote on Hiro if they were mafia and Dittert is town. I think there is - Hiro wasn't in the spotlight at all and by successfully bandwagoning a townie they leave themselves another potential later lynching candidate in Dittert. If Dittert is town, his play so far has been pretty weak and so I think saving him as an easy lynch target later on could be a very viable reason.
-Strange comment on himself and Yomi, not sure what it really means.
-Then casts doubt on vonK, myself, KharadBanar and Dittert.
- In summary, a whole lot of nothing, doesn't contribute much besides pointing fingers everywhere, doubting reasons as to why himself (and Acro, Yomi) as mafia would bandwagon Hiro if Dittert is town. This whole post comes off as quite scummy to me.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 15:20 Xatalos wrote:
We are now on the brink of defeat, but I just had a brilliant idea: the Detective should reveal his Night 1 check and analysis based on that at the deadline of Night 2. So that even if Mafia shoot him now, his knowledge will be shared, and if they weren't going to shoot him, they don't have enough time to switch to him anymore. Best case scenario, he lives and can now share two Detective checks. Worst case scenario, he dies but we now have one 100% confirmed Detective check. In either case, hugely more information than we have right now.
-Suggests a detective check reveal could provide more information than we currently have. Given the current ratio of town:mafia, mafia claiming could screw things up immensely at this point. Either stupid or scummy.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 17:58 Acrofales wrote:
Either there is no DT, or his dissemination of the information during D1 was too obscure for me to read. I really don't like DT claims, though. They add too much wifom. Because we are at lylo, a mafia claiming DT is a really shitty situation. I do NOT want to spend D3 debating the truthfulness of a DT check and the time for claiming is not tonight (and probably not tomorrow either).
I have thought about yesterday and realised that a couple of my assumptions about mafia behaviour are probably too strong. I have been focusing on the mafia agenda of getting townies lynched. I reread Incognito's general guide and realised I have been focusing too much on trying to find mafia defending each other. That may not even have been necessary. Lets take another look at the D2 events.
The first thing that happened was that Dittert came under pressure. Regardless of whether Dittert is town, or scum, there was plenty of time in the day for mafia to turn that around. HiroPro posted his suspicions of Xatalos. At the time there were two possible explanations: HiroPro was town and convinced he had a scumread on Xatalos, or HiroPro was scum and pushing Xatalos for his own agenda. We now know that the former was the case.
The second event was that the suspicions of town moved from Dittert to Xatalos and the town went completely silent. This seems to me to lead to one of three inevitable conclusions:
1. Xatalos is town and mafia was content to just let the lynch happen.
2. Xatalos is scum and mafia was hoping someone like me stepped in... or were waiting a little bit longer to do it themselves.
3. Xatalos and Acrofales are scumbuddies.
Now, I happen to know that the third scenario is false, but feel free to convince yourselves of that fact. I'll be here to answer all your questions and accusations. I thought I had the game completely figured out, but I clearly don't and other people's opinions are most welcome. That leaves the former two as possibilities.
I am slightly inclined toward the former, because the second situation implies a LOT of risk.
The third event of the day was that I posted this reasoning, and drew the conclusion that HiroPro and Dittert were a possible scum axis. This was clearly wrong, but I still think my reasoning about Xatalos is probably right.
Looking over the scum guides and the two games I have played as scum, mafia really dislike to put their opinion out there. There are LOTS of things I don't like about Xatalos' play, but there is one thing he has undeniably done: he is flapping his mouth about every little thing he can think of in this game. He has either improved his scumplay IMMENSELY since GoT mafia, or he is town. I am not normally a fan of meta-arguments, but his play is so different from in GoT, that he is either a chameleon, or town.
That leaves the last little bit of the game yesterday. Everybody jumped on the HiroPro bandwagon because of my convincing arguments and my rather hastily thrown together case (and other people's cases too). The only conclusion I can draw from that at the moment (I promise more in my nightly reads post) is that HiroPro did not play his town role particularly well.
That was the real eye opener to me: I have been using reasoning and logic to analyse others' playstyle and rational approach to this game. I have been focusing too hard on what people are saying and not when they are saying it. I have some new suspicions, that I promise to post in my nightly reads.
However, before the night ends, I want to do something I was actually rather opposed to. I want to call out a possible vigilante to please shoot Dittert. Regardless of his alignment, he is not helping town. Here is my case on why Dittert needs to be shot, regardless of his alignment.
Because I am completely and utterly null on Dittert, I will assume the worst case scenario, which is that he is town.
Tomorrow we will be at lylo. That means we lynch scum, or lose. This, as someone (willz, I think) pointed out, is regardless of whether we shoot a townie or not. Conclusion: the vig MUST shoot tonight, and imho he should shoot Dittert.
Dittert has not been contributing. He has been attacked and defended a number of times by different people, making him a good source of information.
However, most importantly is the vote count. If we are onto scum tomorrow, scum will NOT vote for him. Assuming all scum is alive, that leaves 3 votes on a townie. Dittert has guaranteed his absence from the voting the last two days. His last post on D1 was at 22:54 (9 hours before the deadline) and his last post on D2 was at 00:53 (7 hours before the deadline). Both times town switched in the last few hours before the deadline and Dittert was not around to comment, steer us back on track or agree and vote with town. That means that if we find scum after Dittert has left to work, it is one less vote to count on switching, leaving it 4 town votes and 3 scum votes: the exact same situation as if we shoot him. If we shoot someone ELSE who turns out to be town, that's 3 town votes and 3 scum votes. Ergo, a race against the clock to get our votes on scum before they vote for the townie (or blindly following whoever Dittert votes for, which I am unwilling to do).
So, vig, either be 100% certain you are shooting scum, or shoot Dittert:
1. He has a good chance of being scum (50/50 in my book at the moment, which is remarkably one of my best scum reads: my confidence has been damaged since my completely wrong read yesterday and am in the process of reevaluating)
2. He would give town some good info by flipping
3. He is a liability to town due to his prolonged absense around the deadline (timezones suck, I know).
-Shuts down Xatalos's idea regarding DT claim. The first paragraph comes across as quite pro-town.
-Argues the most likely scenario regarding Xatalos during the Dittert/Xatalos vote-swing is that he's town, and suggests Xatalos being scum would require the mafia to have played risky in waiting for a town-Acro to step in. The fact that he did step in though doesn't give him much credit on this observation. Obviously he denies himself being scum with Xatalos as his scumbuddy, though that's really starting to strike me as the most obvious explanation here.
-Admits reasoning for HiroPro lynch was wrong, but defends Xatalos more.
-Quotes guides in a manner that give himself credibility, suggests Xatalos' scumplay is either unbelievably amazing or he's town.
-Makes a point regarding HiroPro not playing his town role well, takes attention away from the fact that it was his case and points it back at the innocent Hiro.
-Calls out a vig-shot on Dittert. His case here does have some solid points (mostly the fact that Dittert if town really hasn't contributed as much as he could have). I personally get a scum read from this though, and I'm not comfortable with convincing the vig to shoot Dittert just because if he is town he wasn't necessarily useful. That just strikes me as incredibly convenient for Acro both as an excuse if Dittert flips town and if Acro is indeed scum. If Acro is town, I don't think he'd be pushing so hard for a vig-shot on someone he personally admits as only being 50/50.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 18:46 Xatalos wrote:
Acrofales, thanks for the post. I guess you have a point about the DT check confusing discussion. I'm just worried about the possibility that the DT will get shot tonight without getting to share his information at all.
If I can use the fact that I know I'm town as a part of my analysis (like you did), that means I don't really believe you are Mafia. Why risk your credibility with pushing the vote to HiroPro (whom you would know to be town) instead of just letting me get lynched and go after HiroPro next. I can't see any kind of a Mafia motivation for your actions on Day 2 (unless we would be both Mafia, and I know that to be false). Thus, it means HiroPro's last will was completely pointless and I'm going to ignore it for now. Also, it means my town flip would make you like 0,1% chance of Mafia in the general discussion.
Dittert... I agree he would be the "safest" Vigi shot, in case there is a Vigi who previously saved his shot. Okay chance of being Mafia (although less likely with HiroPro's town flip) and the smallest loss with a town flip.
I'll also make a big analysis post later under the assumption that Acrofales is town (most pro-town play + the reasons I mentioned earlier in this post). I'm quite certain Acrofales will be shot now that the Doctor is dead, but it might also be KharadBanar or even me (although not as likely). Definitely not Dittert (if he is town, Mafia would love to keep him
alive the most of all). So I, Acrofales and KharadBanar should give our best reads before deadline in case we get shot next. I don't have any solid top lynch read after my perfect-feeling theory got crushed, but maybe I can notice the signs of Mafia better after this: it's not necessarily defending each other that much, but quietly spreading suspicion and staying out of suspicion yourself. I'll try looking at possible connections too, though (maybe not directly defending, but not arguing directly with each other and reluctance to vote/bandwagon each other).
-Immediately defends Acro (again).
-Suggests Hiro's last post was "completely pointless" - incredibly convenient given it incriminates both Xatalos and Acro as the prime suspects.
-Agrees with Acro that Dittert is the safest vig-shot.
-Will write a big post later under the assumption that Acro is town (keep saying it maybe it will stick).
-Makes himself out as a bit of a noob.
-Says defending each other isn't necessarily a mafia trait, kind of convenient given his last few posts.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 23:13 Acrofales wrote:Given that this is the last will of a townie, I think it is only fair I address it. Show nested quote +
Lynch Xatalos. Easy step. Obviously you do that first thing in the daytime. Don't listen to anything he has to say. Don't address him or tell him anything; just lynch him.
I don't disagree that Xatalos needs another look at. I am not convinced he's town, but as I said in my previous post, I find it very unlikely that he his scum, given the complete lack of people willing to defend him from Hiro's accusations, which was quite a good case. While I was not expecting a chainsaw defense, I would have expected someone to refer back to Dittert and why he was so scummy once the Xatalos bandwagon was going nicely. The problem with a Xatalos scum is thus not that he is unscummy, it's that he seems to be playing alone. Add that to his completely different meta and I am for now willing to believe Xata is town. Show nested quote +
DO NOT LISTEN TO WHAT ACROFALES SAYS. I know many of you have Acrofales as a very strong town read. I don't; Acrofales has been a scum read in my notes since day 1. I don't have the time to fully outline a case against Acrofales, but I'll try to summarize my thoughts here. Read through his filter closely.
Please do. I agree that my analysis on HiroPro was completely and utterly wrong. I found a group of 5 players in which I thought it was likely the scum was hiding (I was wrong in discarding Dittert, so it was actually 6 players). I may have gotten confirmation bias, or I just had a completely faulty read on HiroPro because his playstyle is quite erratic. In either case, I made a mistake and realise that my pushing the case on a townie makes me suspect. I don't want to be blindly sheeped. I want everybody here to play the game actively, posting their reads and analyses, asking each other questions and trying to hunt scum. There was quite a lack of scumhunting in D2. Show nested quote +
Acrofales does not post actual analysis; instead what he does is call out certain people who are not posting and then proceed to make "connections" between certain people who he will arbitrarily label as scummy.
Huh? I don't think you have understood my posts at ALL if that is what you think. If you don't understand the logic in one of my posts, I am happy to explain it, but I have so far posted exactly what I am understanding of people's play and motivations. There is definitely nothing "arbitrary" about it. Nevertheless, I am not going to argue that my non-arbitrariness is townie. I make very deliberate posts regardless of my alignment. The townie part comes from the fact that rather than searching for the player who I can most easily label as scum and focusing on his bad behaviour, as I do as scum, I have been actively analysing ALL players in the game and trying to find which is scummiest, even if the case is not an easy one to make. Show nested quote +
By basing all of his cases on these "connections", Acrofales avoids taking responsibility for votes and reads. Everything is already set out for him and indisputable.
Au contraire, my dear fellow. I lay out my assumptions and the entire logical reasoning. Everybody can follow it and draw their own conclusions. I would be VERY happy to be discussing this with anyone. I believe my connections make sense, but my logic is NOT infallible as imallison kindly pointed out. I would love for people to poke holes in it. It should also not be taken ALONE. If you look at the way I used the information: I analysed the connections, drew my conclusions and went over people's filters to see who I thought was most likely to be scum. Unfortunately, I was completely wrong on that account. And with me, at least 3 other townies (7 votes, of which 3 may or may not be scum). Show nested quote +These connection posts do not help town; all they do is get people speculating on which people are sided with certain other people and thus must be either both town or both mafia. It distracts from actual reads and scum-hunting. I once again disagree. Voting analysis to find connections is a valid style of scumhunting and has been applied successfully in quite a variety of mafia games here, although it works best after actually finding a mafia. It has a high degree of speculation, but lets be honest, so does textual analysis of someone's filter. Now I know I may not convince you, so here is people discussing it on mafiascum: clicky. I do think that my assumptions may be wrong. I can think of some reasons to voteswitch as mafia, if the two targets are both innocent. + Show Spoiler [meme] +Show nested quote +
I have no clear reads on the third mafia member (and the small reads I can post on the people I have not mentioned are not worth posting). Good luck searching for him.
If you think there is some sort of connection between myself and Dittert (aka been listening too much to Acrofales/yomi), get rid of that thought. My flip shows absolutely nothing about Dittert - I have no connection whatsoever to him. He is neither strongly town nor strongly mafia in my view. That being said, I have a slight town read on him. Ignore the first 2 days and evaluate him based on what you see in the coming day/night period. DO NOT LYNCH HIM TOMORROW IF FOR SOME REASON YOU THINK HE IS MAFIA (Lynch Xatalos, then Acrofales).
DO NOT LYNCH FOR INFORMATION. Focus on what people say, how they say it, and go with your strongest mafia read.
I agree we should definitely not lynch for information. I wish you had posted your unprocessed reads, rather than this will, but I just died in SS Mafia and know what it feels like to have not disseminated all the information you had and can understand you were strapped for time. I am sorry I found you scummy, but I still don't see much wrong with my reasoning (except for the factual errors that vK pointed out).
-Xatalos seems to be playing alone - really?
-Discredits virtually all of Hiro's last post which condemned both Acro and Xatalos.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 23:18 willz22912 wrote:If you're under the impression you will be shot, feel free to post this night. However, the following players are under suspicion, myself, Xatalos, Yomi, Dittert. Any of these players being shot would not make sense in Mafia's line of thinking, we are too easy cases to push for a mis-lynch. Acro you better start posting your heart out if you think you're going to be killed off today, as I quote your lovely farewell post to Arctic: Show nested quote +On April 15 2012 08:04 Acrofales wrote:
ArcticFox: too townie to live, too quiet to get protected. He will be missed. Now people. Lets get scumhunting.
##vote Dittert Now that town has successfully killed their own doctor (/facepalm) we can probably assume that Hiro probably medic'd Acro N1 because he had the most towncred among us. There are two explanations for Arctic being shot instead, Mafia assumed there was a medic and Acro would be on the most obvious target, so they switched to target #2 Arctic, or Acro is Mafia and they knew Arctic was either on the right track or the town with the most towncred. Also I find this defense by Xatalos of Acrofales troubling. Especially the DT talk, DT cannot be claimed at this point and proven, Mafia can easily counter-claim, all you're doing is making it easier for the Mafia to bluesnipe, very untownlike. If Acro doesn't get shot tonight, there is no other explanation other than that he is Mafia, he has been too visible for a town to be left alive this long. If Acro gets shot tonight, then Xatalos is probably Mafia for trying to buddy/defend Acro so hard (I will add more on to this as night rolls over, have to head to class soon.) Don't forget Acrofales and Xatalos were both scum in GoT Mafia (which they won) so they have good experience of what to do as Mafia. They also can play 100% completely opposite of what they did in GoT because of meta arguments. They've both referenced what "Mafia should do" as part of their thinking, and then pointed out how they couldn't possibly be Mafia because they haven't done what "Mafia should do." This is flimsy reasoning, especially for a newbie game, people make mistakes and not optimal play, we've seen that numerous times in this game, trying to defend yourself by saying this is not what Mafia would do (what Xatalos has done) should not be a good defense. Also notice Xatalos trying to discredit HiroPro's last testament and will, even though he didn't manage to finish his thoughts in time, HiroPro was 100% town, and he may have been on to something. Remember what he said, ignore Xatalos and look at Acro's filter.
-This whole post comes across as very pro-town, largely in part because it agrees with many of the things I'm currently thinking.
-(/facepalm) suggests some genuine townie disappointment.
-Comments on defense of Acro by Xatalos.
-Brings something new to the table (both winners in a previous mafia as scum which gives them an extra out with meta arguments, admits it's flimsy but still worthy of noting.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 17 2012 23:31 Acrofales wrote:
Now, at everybody else who is still alive. We are BEHIND on scumhunting and got a blue killed during D2 instead of managing to nab a scumster, but we can still win this game.
@Willz. I am still on the fence about you. You got active and posted your reads when you were under heavy pressure. Since then you have gone dormant again. Top 3 scum reads please.
@KB. I looked over your other Newbie game and you seemed to be a bit more active in D2 there, engaging people in conversation all over the place and more of a leader than a follower, as opposed to this D2. I have gone into a what-if scenario where we have so far been completely wrong in our scumreads and your name pops up on my scumdar. I don't think there is any harm in continuing the analysis and scumhunting in the night this time, because mafia can kill whoever they like as long as they get to manipulate tomorrow's vote. So. Scum top 3 and why.
@Xata. While my analysis indicates you're town, your posting has been completely hopeless. Your filter is unreadable and you put far too much stock in speculation about mafia motives. So on the one hand I think you're town, on the other you have some very scummy traits. I would really like a non-waffly post from you clearly stating who you think is scum, who you think is town and why.
@funcnode. I liked your play at the end of D2, it was very sensible, but I still don't have a good idea of what you are. Please keep posting.
@everybody else. Please be more active. Ask each other questions, post your reads. Don't let mafia hide in inactivity.
-Again suggests Xatalos is town (I've lost count).
-Admits Xatalos is useless, the same excuse to vig-shot Dittert, however here used in context to defend Xatalos, mentioning he thinks Xatalos is town twice in only 4 sentences.
-Whole point of post could be perceived as a diversion.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 18 2012 00:02 yomi wrote:Well my biggest read is xat and I kind of have blinders on for him right now. All I can think about is who his teammates are but I need to take a few steps back and consider others. My biggest question is how is hiro so sure of xat? He seems 1000% sure. I am thinking about this Show nested quote +On April 15 2012 08:41 GreYMisT wrote:
Doctors and Doctorees are notified of a succsessful protect But nothing is coming to me right now that is really viable. So I trust hiro now obviously since we know he is town and he was dead set on xat and he was my top guy until late last night as well. I'm pretty much stuck on xat atm.
-Points what I can only agree as a very sensibly pointed finger at Xatalos.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote:
My proposal for the scum team:
Scum #1: Xatalos
I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow.
Scum #2: Acrofales
Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day.
Scum #3
Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities.
Dittert:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch.
yomi:
This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives.
vonKlaust:
This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3
Funcmode:
It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment.
Willz:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz
Kharad:
I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town.
So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read):
#1: Xatalos (90%)
#2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not)
#3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise)
-I initially had imallinson pegged as quite scummy, and him being scum still made a lot of sense to me given my own current reads, up until he came and posted this, which basically agrees with everything I'm thinking myself.
-I feel like if Xatalos and Acro are scum, which right now seems like quite a high probability, then imallinson is town. It seems unlikely he'd want to out the other two scum, though if it gives him massive credibility maybe it's worth it.
-Overall a very pro-town read from this post, virtually of it's points I agree with.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 18 2012 01:52 Acrofales wrote:Okay, I see I missed a post by Willz and it is an interesting one too. I am sorry, but this post reaks of wifom. I can smell this setup a mile away and I would like to show the entire town how it works. Show nested quote +On April 17 2012 23:18 willz22912 wrote:
If you're under the impression you will be shot, feel free to post this night. I completely agree and will be posting actively! Show nested quote +However, the following players are under suspicion, myself, Xatalos, Yomi, Dittert. Any of these players being shot would not make sense in Mafia's line of thinking, we are too easy cases to push for a mis-lynch. Acro you better start posting your heart out if you think you're going to be killed off today, as I quote your lovely farewell post to Arctic: On April 15 2012 08:04 Acrofales wrote:
ArcticFox: too townie to live, too quiet to get protected. He will be missed. Now people. Lets get scumhunting.
##vote Dittert Now that town has successfully killed their own doctor (/facepalm) we can probably assume that Hiro probably medic'd Acro N1 because he had the most towncred among us. There are two explanations for Arctic being shot instead, Mafia assumed there was a medic and Acro would be on the most obvious target, so they switched to target #2 Arctic, or Acro is Mafia and they knew Arctic was either on the right track or the town with the most towncred. We can in no way shape or form assume Hiro did such a thing. However, scum fearing that a medic would protect me is a plausible reason not to shoot me. I agree that my goodbye post summarised Arctic's death quite succinctly. I cannot prove the second situation is not true unless I die, but the mere fact that situation is in your minds should've made Willz think before posting he posted the rest of his WIFOM. Show nested quote +
Also I find this defense by Xatalos of Acrofales troubling. Especially the DT talk, DT cannot be claimed at this point and proven, Mafia can easily counter-claim, all you're doing is making it easier for the Mafia to bluesnipe, very untownlike.
Agreed about the DT bit. Why are you linking the DT bit to his defense of me, though? Show nested quote +
If Acro doesn't get shot tonight, there is no other explanation other than that he is Mafia, he has been too visible for a town to be left alive this long. If Acro gets shot tonight, then Xatalos is probably Mafia for trying to buddy/defend Acro so hard (I will add more on to this as night rolls over, have to head to class soon.)
Hrmmm, how about this for a catch 22 scenario. However, this is particularly insidious wifom. It is wifom about stuff that hasn't even happened yet. You are planting the idea, so that if I am not shot, all you have to do is refer back here and say: see, he must be scum. I refuse to wifom your wifom, but suffice it to say this awarded you qutie a few points on my scumometer. Show nested quote +
Don't forget Acrofales and Xatalos were both scum in GoT Mafia (which they won) so they have good experience of what to do as Mafia. They also can play 100% completely opposite of what they did in GoT because of meta arguments.
Bingo, another catch 22. If I (and Xata) were to have the same style as in GoT mafia, we would clearly be mafia: we have the same style. However, by changing our style we are ALSO clearly mafia, because we would totally have changed up our playstyle! The whole point why meta-arguments work is because it is VERY difficult to change your playstyle. In other words: confirmation bias much? Show nested quote + They've both referenced what "Mafia should do" as part of their thinking, and then pointed out how they couldn't possibly be Mafia because they haven't done what "Mafia should do." This is flimsy reasoning, especially for a newbie game, people make mistakes and not optimal play, we've seen that numerous times in this game, trying to defend yourself by saying this is not what Mafia would do (what Xatalos has done) should not be a good defense. And another catch 22? If I act townie I am clearly scum, because I am NOT doing anything scummy! The whole point of this game is that mafia does not want to help scumhunt, wants to shit up the thread and wants to stay hidden. That case can be made against Xatalos, but I am finding it harder and harder to read him accurately. Suffice it to say, his playstyle is EXTREMELY different from GoT. He is also only displaying one of the many scum tells: he shits up the thread with useless wifom. Other than that he is (hyper)active and willing to commit to his cases (and makes them. I challenge you to find a single focused case by Xatalos in GoT mafia). Which reminds me, Willz, have you committed to anything yet, this game, except for your erroneous BroodKing case?Willz managed to drop off my scumometer in the whole D2 debacle, but this post just reminded me of why I fingered him as scum in the first place. Thanks! Show nested quote +Also notice Xatalos trying to discredit HiroPro's last testament and will, even though he didn't manage to finish his thoughts in time, HiroPro was 100% town, and he may have been on to something. Remember what he said, ignore Xatalos and look at Acro's filter.
HiroPro was town, not an oracle. If you and your scumbuddies really manage to convince the town to lynch me, you will see that a townie can still be completely and absolutely 100% wrong: I was on HiroPro and he is about me.
-States Willz's post (which condemns Acro and Xatalos) reeks of WIFOM.
-Dismisses several credible points as catch-22's, bit of a OMGUS.
-States the fact he was wrong about Hiro is enough to dispute Hiro's case against himself, while suggesting Willz is scum. Again somewhat of an OMGUS.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 18 2012 01:57 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote:
My proposal for the scum team:
Scum #1: Xatalos
I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow.
Scum #2: Acrofales
Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day.
Scum #3
Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities.
Dittert:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch.
yomi:
This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives.
vonKlaust:
This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3
Funcmode:
It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment.
Willz:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz
Kharad:
I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town.
So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read):
#1: Xatalos (90%)
#2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not)
#3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise) Okay, I like that you're posting If we forget about connections for a second, who would be your second-highest scum read. Because, apparently I am only scum if Xatalos flips red. If he flips green, then town is dead and I don't even get a chance. So, imagine Xatalos is green (despite thinking it's unlikely), who else might be scum at this point? At lylo we need to find 1 scum, not 3. That was one of the major things that I did wrong in thinking HiroPro was scum yesterday. My nightly reads will do the same: go back to basics and analyse players individually for scummy traits. No more connections, we worry about those AFTER we find the first scum.
-This post seems to try and spread doubt amongst those accusing Acro and Xatalos ('Oh but think about who else it could be if Xatalos is town!). The reality (I think) is that you two are the most scummy reads right now and if Xatalos is scum (if not, remember he is useless - your own words) then it also means you are probably scum - this is right now I think the best thing we have to go on. Who do you think is the scum if you and Xatalos aren't? These are the things you should be posting if you're actually town to defend yourself, rather than trying to get others to start second-guessing themselves.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 18 2012 02:13 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote:
My proposal for the scum team:
Scum #1: Xatalos
I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow.
Scum #2: Acrofales
Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day.
Scum #3
Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities.
Dittert:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch.
yomi:
This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives.
vonKlaust:
This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3
Funcmode:
It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment.
Willz:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz
Kharad:
I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town.
So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read):
#1: Xatalos (90%)
#2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not)
#3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise) This post looks somewhat suspicious. Partly because it reminds me of a post I made in GoT as Mafia, but mostly because it's a really contentless post with WIFOM or non-existent reasoning (and random notes of confidence/doubt to various players). You say your top Mafia read is me, yet your reason for that is "posts way too much". Really? If anything, I'd say "posts too little" would be a Mafia tell. And even if "posts too much" was a good Mafia tell, you say nothing else that would make me your top Mafia read. Really hard bandwagoning and casting suspicion without evidence. Your reason for Acrofales as the second Mafia is pure WIFOM. Your only reason for him being Mafia is that he's been defending me, although nothing else truly points at him being Mafia (or me being a highly likely Mafia for that matter, although I sadly can't say I would have played purely pro-town). Your reason for vonKlaust as the third Mafia is basically... non-existent. He's far from the only player who has during this game been flying under the radar (I'd say you're more guilty of that than vonKlaust). Your reasoning in this post is exceptionally weak, almost malicious. Acrofales and vonKlaust have been generally among the highest town reads for the whole game, yet you're ready to discredit and/or kill them both for very weak reasons. Your point about killing me first to confirm them is yet again weak reasoning, since when I flip town with the lynch, Mafia has already won.
-Shoots down imallinson's scumreads on Xatalos, Acro and vonK.
-Lots of random meta stuff, doesn't mean much to me.
-Comes across as a strong defense but not pro-town.
-Has spent the night defending himself and Acro, while doing practically nothing to actually scumhunt himself besides pointing the finger back at the people accusing him.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 18 2012 02:31 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2012 23:18 willz22912 wrote:
Now that town has successfully killed their own doctor (/facepalm) we can probably assume that Hiro probably medic'd Acro N1 because he had the most towncred among us.
Maybe I'm going too deep, but don't you mean OUR own doctor, not THEIR own Doctor? Show nested quote +On April 17 2012 23:18 willz22912 wrote:
If Acro doesn't get shot tonight, there is no other explanation other than that he is Mafia, he has been too visible for a town to be left alive this long.
So you're planning to shoot KharadBanar or vonKlaust instead of Acrofales, then get him lynched tomorrow with the support of HiroPro's last will about him - and planting baseless suspicion on him such as this? I feel really bad about this, since I almost single-handedly saved you from lynching (convinced everyone to vote for yomi, which caused the stupid slip from BroodKingEXE). I was convinced by your defense while under lynch pressure, but you haven't done almost anything of worth after that. And now you post something like this, with horrible Mafia slips and obvious Mafia agenda. I'm disappointed in believing you earlier...
-This post actually makes a bit of sense but could equally be interpreted as just more Acro defense, deriving mafia slips and mafia agenda from two highlighted sentences, only one of which has any sort of merit. The bit about Acro/KB/vonK is interesting though.
I'm ending my analysis here for now, I refreshed the page and see there are a number of additional posts which I'll try and address in a sort of conclusion;
The first thing I want to comment on is people's initial reactions after the lynching of Hiropro, the doctor. One would expect (as this is how I felt myself - my mind was racing and I didn't know what to think) as a townie to feel shocked, lost for words, confused and even angry. Scum on the other hand obviously know what's coming, so are more likely to have clearer heads and more concise posts at this point. A lot of people posted short, disbelieving responses after the lynching which to me gives those people a fair amount of town cred. Xatalos' and Acro's initial replies are definitely of the more thought-out responses at the time and one could argue (as I've tried) that they have clear goals already minutes after the lynching.
The other thing I want to point out right now, is during D2 the vote was in favour of lynching Xatalos. Xatalos then fingers Hiro and goes on a posting spree and the bandwagon begins. Acro is the first to cast his vote against Hiro, followed by KB and then Xatalos himself. The fact that the two of you effectively lead the vote-switch that lead to saving Xatalos and lynching the doctor who then condemned the both of you is highly incriminating in my opinion. There's been a lot of discrediting Hiro's last statement from both of you, defending each other, and pointing fingers elsewhere without much to really go on.
This case against Willz has some merit maybe, but there's a long way to go before I can begin to believe that both Acro and Xatalos are both town.
|
My thoughts about the alignments of all players:
Xatalos
Self-explanatory for me, but read this if you are hesitant about me:
On April 17 2012 04:30 Xatalos wrote:
Why Am I Town?
I'm the first to admit I have had many faults, the greatest of which are these:
- Tunnel Vision: ignoring a lot of stuff, especially alternative explanations for events (such as yomi voting for Willz to save himself not being a Mafia-specific action)
- Confirmation Bias: focusing on proving myself right more than on finding the truth (I had a pretty hard time letting go off my ArcticFox suspicions, although my reasons for suspecting him weren't very good to begin with)
- Paranoia: mentioning every little suspicious detail from pretty much every player so far (I even mentioned specifically Acrofales for lurking the Day 1 lynch, although he was far from the only lurker in that situation and wasn't even otherwise suspicious at all)
- Stupidity: misunderstanding rules, posts and even pronouns (my greatest moment of stupidity was thinking yomi claimed doctor while he was just talking in general)
Through these faults I have caused anti-town atmosphere, which is an understandable reason to believe I would be Mafia. But I want you to take a moment and consider: is that the only explanation?
- Tunnel Vision is not really a Mafia trait, since Mafia would be happy to lynch any townie, not a specific townie
- Confirmation Bias is plausibly a Mafia trait, since Mafia know the roles of everyone and thus want to prove themselves right instead of finding the truth
- Paranoia is not really a Mafia trait, since Mafia don't have any need to be suspicious of their fellow players or to gather too much attention
- Stupidity is neither a town or Mafia trait
In conclusion, only one of the reasons for my sometimes anti-town play is a Mafia trait. Even so, it's not exclusively a Mafia trait, but rather a trait of a person emotional about something (in this case, lynching Mafia).
Now, what pro-town have I done to redeem these faults?
- Activity: I have posted a lot, more than anyone else - perhaps not as much useful content as Acrofales or KharadBanar, but definitely among the most even in that category
- Transparency: I have been like an open book, giving my opinion on everything without hesitation, never being afraid of suspicious slips or being proved wrong in the end
- Focus on Mafia Hunting: most of my posts consist of accusing a player, noticing suspicious behaviour, giving my Mafia reads, demanding explanations, demanding activity or analyzing possible Mafia&Mafia / town & Mafia / town & town interactions between two players
All of my anti-town plays are (at least somewhat) explainable from a town perspective, but are these pro-town plays explainable from a Mafia perspective?
- Activity is definitely not a Mafia trait: Mafia would prefer to fly under the radar and plan inside their own chat, not to be on the spotlight of the discussion all the time
- Transparency is the opposite of a Mafia trait: Mafia would never want to give more information and thoughts to the discussion than necessary
- Focus on Mafia Hunting is again the opposite of a Mafia trait: Mafia want to delay and distract Mafia hunting, not to focus on it in their own posting
So none of these pro-town plays are really explainable from a Mafia perspective. Of course Mafia would love to look as pro-town as possible, but not at the cost of losing the game because of it. Willingness to establish your innocence at the cost of advancing town agenda and probably having to bus your teammates along the way is not strong Mafia play - it's ineffective Mafia play.
Acrofales
Just look at his filter: he has tons of posts that scream "town!", such as his night analysis post. Also, had he been Mafia, he would have certainly let me be lynched and not switched the vote around to HiroPro (a useless lurker).
KharadBanar
Has put tons of effort to pushing town agenda: analysis, discussion... I don't really see why Mafia would play like he has so far.
Dittert
As the arch-nemesis of Willz, not very likely to be Mafia.
vonKlaust
Nothing suspicious comes to mind, although not all that much positive either. Probably town?
yomi
Has appeared more townie lately. 50/50?
imallinson
Not too much suspicious going for him, but this caught my attention:
On April 18 2012 02:13 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote:
My proposal for the scum team:
Scum #1: Xatalos
I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow.
Scum #2: Acrofales
Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day.
Scum #3
Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities.
Dittert:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch.
yomi:
This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives.
vonKlaust:
This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3
Funcmode:
It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment.
Willz:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz
Kharad:
I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town.
So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read):
#1: Xatalos (90%)
#2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not)
#3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise) This post looks somewhat suspicious. Partly because it reminds me of a post I made in GoT as Mafia, but mostly because it's a really contentless post with WIFOM or non-existent reasoning (and random notes of confidence/doubt to various players). You say your top Mafia read is me, yet your reason for that is "posts way too much". Really? If anything, I'd say "posts too little" would be a Mafia tell. And even if "posts too much" was a good Mafia tell, you say nothing else that would make me your top Mafia read. Really hard bandwagoning and casting suspicion without evidence. Your reason for Acrofales as the second Mafia is pure WIFOM. Your only reason for him being Mafia is that he's been defending me, although nothing else truly points at him being Mafia (or me being a highly likely Mafia for that matter, although I sadly can't say I would have played purely pro-town). Your reason for vonKlaust as the third Mafia is basically... non-existent. He's far from the only player who has during this game been flying under the radar (I'd say you're more guilty of that than vonKlaust). Your reasoning in this post is exceptionally weak, almost malicious. Acrofales and vonKlaust have been generally among the highest town reads for the whole game, yet you're ready to discredit and/or kill them both for very weak reasons. Your point about killing me first to confirm them is yet again weak reasoning, since when I flip town with the lynch, Mafia has already won.
funcmode
I was just going to say his lack of contribution is somewhat disturbing and put him at 50/50, but then he comes up with a massive post defending both Willz and imallinson and accusing both Acrofales and me. Likely Mafia: calls Willz's super-suspicious post as "very pro-town" and also calls imallinson's contentless and somewhat suspicious post as "overall pro-town".
Willz
Has been avoiding any commitment, saying a lot of stuff with Mafia motivation... Here is my case from earlier:
On April 18 2012 04:04 Xatalos wrote:Why To Lynch WillzShow nested quote +On April 12 2012 09:16 willz22912 wrote:
If the rest of you are going to let that comment by Dittert slide, I'm going to be unhappy. That comment was 100% useless and even if he is town I'm willing to sacrifice him to weed out the real scum. First Mafia slip: why would you want to kill a townie just for posting a stupid suggestion? You even say specifically that his town flip would help "weeding out the real scum"... How exactly? It's not like a bandwagon on Dittert for his stupid play and a town flip would reveal anything useful for us, especially if there would be just a bandwagon on him and nothing else during Day 1. It would be a dream come true for Mafia, not for town. Show nested quote +On April 14 2012 04:07 willz22912 wrote:
It's better to have me martyr myself for town than to try and save me at this point. In hindsight, this looks like potentially suiciding and denying additional information about Mafia connections for town. It's always better to say everything you have and prove your innocence: at the very least others will have something to discuss about next when you flip town. If you suicide as town, you just deny information and give a free kill for Mafia. If you suicide as Mafia, you protect your teammates and confuse town. Show nested quote +On April 16 2012 02:52 willz22912 wrote:
Would you not agree that lynching someone who clammed up isn't as helpful as someone who tried to push cases on a lot of people without weight?
Here, just so my opinion is clear: ##Vote: Xatalos So it's better to lynch an active poster than a lurker, regardless of what you think of our Mafia probabilities? Lurkers benefit Mafia, active posters benefit town. Show nested quote +On April 17 2012 23:18 willz22912 wrote:
If Acro doesn't get shot tonight, there is no other explanation other than that he is Mafia, he has been too visible for a town to be left alive this long. If Acro gets shot tonight, then Xatalos is probably Mafia for trying to buddy/defend Acro so hard (I will add more on to this as night rolls over, have to head to class soon.)
Malicious WIFOM making Acrofales look "bad" once KharadBanar or someone else with high credibility gets killed instead. Possibly a Mafia strategy to plant suspicion on Acrofales beforehand with this really weak WIFOM. I'm in a hurry so this'll have to do, I'll be back later!
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KharadBanar, you should ready your Mafia reads. It looks like they want to link me and Acrofales as Mafia and shoot you now. At least that's what I get from funcmode's post.
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Home from work early today... am I too late for the bandwagon?
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Ok, I must admit I feel pretty lost.
I've looked back att Acro, and he looks good to me. The only thing is that post in which I corrected him for making a pretty darn big factual error. That was actually quite disturbing to me. Still, he has been the sole biggest contributor to the thread in my opinion. He have made the strongest cases and seems to be the one to put the most amount of effort into the game. I still have to put him as town.
I don't like Imallinsons and Funcmodes posts.
Imallinson:
I'm fine with him being suspicious about Xatalos, but his case against Acro and later me doesn't make much sense to me. This is not a list of Imallinsons top scum reads. This is a list of Imallinsons top scum reads IF Xatalos flips red. It would be nice if he could also provide us with a list of his top scum reads as the game looks at the moment.
(I know he presented alternative percentages on me and Acro if Xatalos would flip green, but he also said that 33% is a null read and he put Acro on 33% and me on 40%, we would still be unlikely to be his mafia reads if Xatalos would flip green)
Funcmode:
While the later half of his post is fine, the top part just don't give us anything. I can't see how his analysis on wordings on peoples first few posts after a lynch could give us anything. Sure, if anyone posts a case or reads directly after the lynch it makes sense, but analyzing posts like:
For fucks sake.
Oh, Lol.
Well fuck shit my hell. Sucky sucky I don't like this. I need to sleep, good night!
.......
At least we now have a pretty solid read on Xatalos.
Also with that I'm off for the night, beginning work for my bachelor thesis tomorrow. Good Night!
It's completely pointless to try to evaluate these kind of posts by trying to messure the amount of "genuine disapointedness".
Also, alot of the text in the post in general consists of just rephrasing what has been said in the post. Could potentially be one of these "I want to seem useful"-posts.
Actually, right now I feel like pretty much anyone could be mafia. I actually like Acros and Xatalos cases on Willz though. Looking back at his filter, he seems to have been keeping his head down a bit since he barely survived that first lynch. I haven't really dwelled deeply into his filter, but as far as I can tell he haven't really come up with any kind of case or analysis but has been keeping up with focusing on giving other people feedback(which he criticized me for).
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United Kingdom3482 Posts
@vonKlaust
Imallinson:
I'm fine with him being suspicious about Xatalos, but his case against Acro and later me doesn't make much sense to me. This is not a list of Imallinsons top scum reads. This is a list of Imallinsons top scum reads IF Xatalos flips red. It would be nice if he could also provide us with a list of his top scum reads as the game looks at the moment.
(I know he presented alternative percentages on me and Acro if Xatalos would flip green, but he also said that 33% is a null read and he put Acro on 33% and me on 40%, we would still be unlikely to be his mafia reads if Xatalos would flip green)
Acrofales already asked me to provide my top 3 minus the connection to Xatalos. It was
#1: Xatalos
#2: Dittert
#3: Willz
Although at this point I'd probably swap Dittert and Willz.
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Since I'm home, I might as well post something, especially considering that it seems likely that I'm shot tonight. I could see a vig shooting me for being suspicious/bad/a smartass, but I could also see a Xat/Acro/3rd mafia team shooting me to reinforce their case against Willz. I've been tunneling Willz hard, and me flipping town (which I know I will) could lend some credence to my case.
I'm still suspicious of Willz, but I haven't had time to reevaluate my case in light of everyone's postings today. Just skimming it though, I am way more suspicious of this Xat/Acro tag team we have going on. If I die, my advice is to follow the doctor's orders and just lynch Xat tomorrow. If I don't die, I'll waste my time reading through all these posts so that I can make a longer case for you to ignore tomorrow.
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On April 18 2012 07:47 Dittert wrote:
Since I'm home, I might as well post something, especially considering that it seems likely that I'm shot tonight. I could see a vig shooting me for being suspicious/bad/a smartass, but I could also see a Xat/Acro/3rd mafia team shooting me to reinforce their case against Willz. I've been tunneling Willz hard, and me flipping town (which I know I will) could lend some credence to my case.
I'm still suspicious of Willz, but I haven't had time to reevaluate my case in light of everyone's postings today. Just skimming it though, I am way more suspicious of this Xat/Acro tag team we have going on. If I die, my advice is to follow the doctor's orders and just lynch Xat tomorrow. If I don't die, I'll waste my time reading through all these posts so that I can make a longer case for you to ignore tomorrow.
I'm not really sure what to think about this. Up until this point, Willz was always your #1 Mafia read. Now he is suddenly town, although his posts have never been this malicious before. Either you were his teammate all along fake tunneling him or really stupid town.
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On April 18 2012 07:45 imallinson wrote:@vonKlaust Show nested quote +Imallinson:
I'm fine with him being suspicious about Xatalos, but his case against Acro and later me doesn't make much sense to me. This is not a list of Imallinsons top scum reads. This is a list of Imallinsons top scum reads IF Xatalos flips red. It would be nice if he could also provide us with a list of his top scum reads as the game looks at the moment.
(I know he presented alternative percentages on me and Acro if Xatalos would flip green, but he also said that 33% is a null read and he put Acro on 33% and me on 40%, we would still be unlikely to be his mafia reads if Xatalos would flip green) Acrofales already asked me to provide my top 3 minus the connection to Xatalos. It was #1: Xatalos #2: Dittert #3: Willz Although at this point I'd probably swap Dittert and Willz.
Oh, sorry I missed that. Thanks for the clarification.
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If I die now: lynch Willz. I also guess Willz/funcmode/Dittert is possible. I feel really stupid, however, for diverting the vote away from both Willz (with my own effort) and from Dittert (by accident). If they are actually both Mafia, what have I done.....
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Acro's nightly reads
I don't think it will come as a surprise to anyone that my top 1 scum read is Willz. The reason can be found here. The wifom post is making me think I will be left to live. The opportunity to wifom why I was left alive is just too good and there are plenty of other town targets. Xata and I are surviving the night. KB or vonKlaust is dying.
I will address funcnode's criticisms in a future post, I just want to point out that he may be forgiven for misinterpreting the "noob" statement. He missed this post before the game started when I was requesting to join, which is what I was referring to. Other than that I don't find emotional evaluation particularly useful unless it is in eliciting a response. I was F5ing around the time of the post and was dumbfounded for a couple of minutes. I assessed what this meant and realised that people would be very suspect of me. So I posted that. I don't post useless oneliners as town unless I'm trolling. Also, really? "For fucks sake" suggests genuine disappointment? Lol. It is meaningless. How the hell do you get any kind of sincere read out of a textual for fucks sake? You are soft-defending willz here. Why?
The rest comes if I live through the night. Back to the nightly reads.
Second on my scumlist is Yomi. I have nothing much solid on him at the moment, but some things jumped out at me as suspicious.
Specifically, this post:
On April 17 2012 06:49 yomi wrote:
Looks like we aren't going through on dittert today. Sort of odd but ok. So I am weighing xat vs hiropro. Xat I still think really posts in a mafia way. I still sort of hate this cost/benefit analysis thing he does where he pleads to people's self-interest to vote a certain way. It is just reflective of a general viewpoint towards lynching that the point of it is to survive or to kill which I think is a bit different from how a townie views it. This is a very "emotional" sort of read so it may just be coming from my own admitted total bias against xat. Right when he starts to appeal to my interests to move towards hiro (aka saving him) I cringed and just wanted to vote him even harder.
ON THE OTHER HAND!:
Who are his teammates? Maybe I am just biased towards myself and egocentric etc whatever but I feel like the xat case originates from me. And was easy to shut down initially. I start going at the guy at a time when I myself don't have a lot of credit and most people are still reading xat as pretty town at this point. I think my arguments against him could have been shouted down pretty easily but they weren't. People kind of sat there on the sidelines and looked at it and let the discussion happen. I just think two mafia players could have shut me down right then and there and no one would be looking at xat today.
Hiropro on the other hand has a very very obvious teammate. I went through his filter way back and show him again and again defending ditt. I don't have nearly the patience to substantiate this but my feeling is this is one of the most consistent alignments of any one player towards another so far in the game. I don't know how much dittert reciprocates back though.
So I'm still on the fence here. Xat still seems mafia. However, this one time, his cost/benefit analysis of the lynches is I believe correct. There IS more upside to a hiro mafia flip as it gives us a go-ahead play on a lynch tomorrow or even a vigi shot tonight which would put us in a very strong winning position with all the time in the world to route out the remaining mafia player. If he flips town well he wasn't contributing too much anyway.
Are we so far behind that we have to go for the double play or lose? 3-7 it is right now? That's not great, they only need one or at most two townies to come with them for a lynch on whomever they choose.
Soooooo. Not sure.
It could be nothing, but I get the feeling that he has completely forgotten his earlier suspicion of HiroPro here. That was not a bad case at all. In the intervening time HiroPro does nothing to defend himself against it and only says something about Xatalos' post and Arcticfox's suspicions. Why did Yomi drop the HiroPro case so completely in the meantime, as well as the HiroPro-Dittert connection, which HE was the first to put eyes on? Was this distancing himself from a mislynch? I'm not sure, but it is strange. It is currently the best I have to go on.
For the third I was going to go with funcnode. This was before his last post. I don't like his last post much at all, but if I die, my green blood will make it all clear and otherwise I will respond tomorrow.
Town: Xatalos, KB, vonKlaust and probably imallison.
No clue on Dittert.
+ Show Spoiler [Hopefully not-too-illegible notes] +
BroodKingEXE:
proposes two policy lynch things for discussion. Being dumb about KharadBanar's pressure vote. Shores up his early game discussion and tries to move it forward. Still nothing, though.
DEAD: flipped town
KharadBanar:
very active at the start, but very careful about wording his opinions. Wants to know about an "opening strategy". KharadBanar shoots down Dittert's proposal.
Hard to get a read on. He's active, but not doing anything useful. Points out problems with RNG, but not the main problem, which is THAT IT'S STUPID.
Pulls off pressure vote immediately
Makes a good defense against my accusations and explains the Hiro "pressure" and voices suspicions of Xatalos.
Much better pressure vote on Yomi. Voices his small suspicions rationally.
Is easily convinced by my case. Shits on willz's case for good reasons = null tells.
Reasonable towards willz. Is convinced by willz's defense and votes hiropro (who he has no real case against, but is second in his scumometer).
Is also easily convinced by Xatalos' case against yomi. Looking for consensus surrounding Broodking.
Sheeping Dittert vote. Makes a list post.
No longer thinks HiroPro is suspicious. Uses a bit of wifom, but his filter analysis is good (and he put a LOT of work into it, more than scum usually does). Uncalled for lists are not normal from scum: there was no pressure on him to make it at all.
Decent connection-based analysis, but high wifom. Does not take votes into account in a strong way.
Jumps on Xatalos misinterpreting Yomi's post... could be a townie after scum, or a scum driving home the nails in the coffin.
Agrees with my analysis post. Uses it to draw a connection to Xatalos.
Townometer: iiiii
Scumomenter: iii
LAST UPDATE: April 18 @ 03:42
vonKlaust:
agrees on lurker lynch, but is not sure about liars. Pulls noobie card for "no reads" and seems very sincere about it. Thinks Dittert is a nervous noobie. Affirms that he has no reads yet, but in a townie manner. Seems to be the local bullshit detector..
Is very honest about his reads and his mistakes.
Has willz as top town. Top scum is "harder": weak suspicion of HiroPro and Xatalos.
Comes under fire from Xatalos (and HiroPro. Possible connection there?), but I like his defense. Bit of an OMGUS on HiroPro, but still uses logic.
Adds his reasoning to my case on willz.
Long back and forth with Xatalos over nothing. No real read.
Looks into other people. Posts his findings. Seems very townie in his quandary over willz vs. yomi.
First to respond in surprise over brood's flip. I don't like that he just jumped on it without thinking it through. Votes without ever really saying why "what what what WHAT?" is the closest he gets.
Is very suspicious of willz during the night. Has a really good point about yomi lurking until under pressure.
Makes a list post: rehashes some points already made. Good reads, though. I like what he says on KB. Likes a DITTERT-XATA scumteam. This is interesting, because the dittert/xata bandwagons are already under way.
Has a strong scumread on Dittert. Uses my analysis to draw his own conclusions. Townie attitude in trying to figure shit out. Is correctly suspicious of my factual blunder on the Hiro case. Keeps his vote on his strongest scum read, Dittert.
Scumometer: ii
Townometer: vii
LAST UPDATE: April 18 @ 03:42
ArcticFox:
likes LaL policy. Thinks there won't be lurkers. Explains support for LaL in a good way. Excellent response to Xatalos' post. Suspects vonKlaust for his wishy washy non-play.
Townometer: i
DEAD. Was town. Posted the usual suspects. Mostly Yomi and willz. Says "Why not go after imallinson as well? Imallinson's filter reads SO scummy right now, it practically drips red."
Calls Xatalos out in the night. Suspects Dittert during the night (because of his post).
Shot by mafia, so maybe look into Yomi, Willz, imallison, Xatalos. Slight suspicion of HiroPro as a lurker.
Dittert:
proposes nonsense. Pulling newbie card. Response to light pressure is to OMGUS Willz. He also claims yomi lied, which is dumb. He might just be another Risen, but it's too hard to distinguish shitty town from mafia. Try to keep an open mind when reading him. Posting very deluded, makes some interesting points about Willz, but apologizes immediately for being a noob.
Seems very convinced in the triad of willz, yomi, arcticfox and is reaching to make it stick. Town reads are really strange. KB makes some sense, but why Brood and imallison?
Extends his case on willz.
Makes a really really angry post about the brood lynch. Nothing constructive and shitting on town. Gets everybody's backs up. Next up, he martyrs himself.
Gives a plausible explanation for his anger when coming to his senses. He still thinks willz is scum and builds slowly on his case. WIFOMing willz' reason for defending him is a bit strange, but it's making more sense than he has so far in the thread.
Picks up on an interesting thing Xata said.
Later is convinced Xata is scum.
Makes another non-contribution calling everybody stupid. His lack of conviction is worth shooting.
Townometer: iii
Scumometer: iii
LAST UPDATE April 18 @ 05:09
Willz:
shooting down bad proposals and pricking through bullshit by KharadBanar, including his "pressure" vote. Shoots Xatalos' case to smithereens with good reasoning. Is extremely aggressive in his reads. He is either town, or playing mafia like I do.
Very suspicious of imallison.
Thinks Xatalos is town. Calls out lurkers.
Says he's patient to allow noobs to get used to the game.
Takes it upon himself to police the thread.
Says he's "defending" Dittert, but is actually smothering him. Seems a bit panicked in his response to a complete noob accusing him, especially given how bad the accusation was. Maybe this accusation is unfair. He does address Dittert's points, but in a very sarcastic and derisive manner.
His post @BroodKing is ultra-defensive.
Is very honest in his reply to the case I made against him. However, his case against broodking is weak.
Defense against dittert: appeal to authority. However, the rest is solid.
Explains his playstyle and it is very different to mine. Town defending town seems weird.
Bad, vague case against KB. Voices suspicions of HiroPro and imallison.
Rolls with the punches, seems willing to learn, assuming he's town. In general, I like his defense before he goes all emo. Even with the emo shit, he stays fairly calm. He overemphasises how he's dead. I think scum might be more aggressive in this situation, but wifom here.
Disagrees strongly with yomi and needs heavy convincing to vote for him.
Seems good at describing the game, but is passive in hunting scum.
Finally suspects someone again: HiroPro.
Thinks the case by HiroPro on Xata is "fine".
Lots of wifom. Brings up yomi "knowing" willz is town.
Makes an interesting post about how he is STILL convinced that Dittert is newbie town. How the heck does he know this?
Wishy washy on the Hiro/Xatalos/Dittert situation. Votes HiroPro for information
Couple of nothing posts.
Voices possible suspicion of me, because of the failed HiroPro case. Right thing to do. Not much of a tell: mafia would also love to pile suspicion on me.
Holy batcrap. Giant pre-nightkill wifom. Cannot think of a town reason to post this. It is bad analysis at a bad time.
Townomometer: iiii
Scumometer: viii
LAST UPDATE: April 18 @ 05:09
HiroPro:
Responded to pressure vote in a lacadaisical manner (as expected). Pointed out problem with LaL. Made a good, brief post about Xatalos' useless case against ArcticFox. Also points out inconsistent behaviour. Pointed out yomi's OMGUS dodge of the question. However, his filter is pretty much void of any actual opinions. Votes all over the place and a flimsy case on Xatalos.
Soft defends trumpetarm: possible connection?
Starts to get into the spirit of the game around April 13 07:11. Is convinced that Xatalos is town and his case against vonKlaust is good. Maybe too easy, maybe not.
Holy hypocrit. vonKlaust correctly points out the hipocrisy in his argument. Throwing blame around and hoping it sticks?
Soft defense of Dittert?
Scrambles to cover his tracks on the hipocrisy argument.
Scum read on broodking... in a post comparing the three. The bandwagon was already gone by this point. CLASSIC mafia ploy.
Makes a decent case on xatalos and votes. Maybe trying to sort out dittert's mess. Does not make much sense if dittert is town.
Could still be very noob town.
DEAD town.
Townometer: i
Scumometer: iiii
yomi:
Points out how bad the discussion is. Fat load of nothing. Lurking? Dropped in 8 minutes after Xata called him out. Suspicious of Xata and Brood for vague reasons. Wow, made a fubar post @April 13 2012 01:12. Thinks accusing people in every post is townie behaviour.
Seems a bit panicked. Also, defense of Dittert by ArcticFox? More like an OMGUS to dodge the question. Lashing out like a madman...
BroodKing is suspicious of his top 3 list where he doesn't follow the ranking. I disagree with that read, he's just listing 3 mafia members. Happen to be the most suspected player and two lurkers (arcticfox, hiropro, dittert). Easy picks.
Throws some suspicion at HiroPro.
Gets into an OMGUS with Dittert. Dittert and Yomi both scum seems increasingly unlikely.
Yomi buddies willz. Willz looking townie at this point, so who knows.
Something weird with yomi defending his defense of willz. Not a tell, just weird.
Soft accusation of Dittert. Later turns into a hard accusation.
Is less willing than willz to just roll over and die.
Lies about being the first to suspect Brood. His post is a throwaway that could have meant anything.
Seems increasingly unlikely that Yomi is on the scumteam with Dittert or HiroPro. Is reluctant to say Xata is mafia.
Goes back and forth poking holes in Xatalos' logic. Not much use either way.
I think Xata catches too much flak for misunderstanding Yomi. It is really easy to misunderstand. Who drives this point home?
Finally. Yomi makes a post suspecting HiroPro and Dittert (been harping on them all game). His post makes some sense. I would not expect a connection case like this from a mafia member, it's too risky.
Claims activity, but does nothing.
Makes a value-based judgment call between Xatalos and Dittert. No scumhunting, just utility.
Alarmbell? When going back to my case, seems to have completely forgotten his earlier suspicion of HiroPro. Not sure what to make of this.
Hmmm... while suspicion of HiroPro is justified, possibly suspicious that he made the case. Specifically his later lack of commitment to it? Investigate further.
Thinks Xata is scum.
Pointless speculation about mafia influencing the lynch.
Townometer: ii
Scumometer: iii
Xatalos:
Posts a trumped up case on ArcticFox. Null read so far: I understand where he's coming from, but I disagree with his reasoning.
Throws suspicion on imallison for similar trumped up reasons.
Xatalos posts too much fluff. Calls out lurkers. Is very active and seems to want to move discussion forward. Holy crackerjack his response to me is bad. Blending in much? Reads on Xatalos all over the map. Gone through his filter. Getting an overall townie vibe if I consider his posts in isolation. Wordy, overeager, but townie.
Filter is gigantically long. Lot of back and forth with Yomi. Null read.
Too much wifom.
Posts everything that comes to his mind. This seems like a townie thing to do, but is really clogging up the thread.
Playstyle completely different from Got mafia. Not a big fan of meta-arguments, but only thing I have on Xatalos so far is that he is wildly different from Xata.
Posts why he's town. Shouldn't be necessary, but he makes a decent amount of sense.
Case on willz is so/so. At least cases are improving. Activity is also improving. Tries to engage in discussion without waffling too much at the end of N2.
Townometer: iii
Scumometer: ii
LAST UPDATE: April 16 @ 22:50
imallison: fat load of nothing posts. Seems pretty clueless. Buddying people, mainly Xatalos. Posts a case on Trumpetarn which is not bad, but picking on an inactive noobie is pretty easy. Still buddying Xatalos.
Many more nothing posts. Makes a case against Trumpetarn for nothing.
Same as Hiro... makes a baddish case against Brood. Either because he's town and believes it, or because he's scum and wants to seal the deal.
Makes a good list during the night. Note the town read on Arctic tho. Soft defense on HiroPro?
Is very scared of a vig shot...
Posts a lot more sheeping. Definitely soft defending HiroPro. Also soft defending Yomi.
Good case against Xatalos, who is currently the prime for lynching. No read there.
Points out an error in my thinking. Seems townie to be thinking along <--- especially given that Hiro flipped town: bandwagoning would've been easier as scum.
Makes a long case comparing HiroPro and Xata. It makes sense. Votes Hiro in the end.
Calls for a case from funcnode: suspicion without reasons is bad!
An answer to my question relies on wifom. Later responds briefly with his current reads. I didn't call him out, so volunteered the info. Improving posting style since start of game.
Scumometer: ii
Townometer: iii
LAST UPDATE: April 18 @ 05:50
trumpetarn/funcnode: excellent response to my light prodding. Like his explanation of the Xatalos suspicion. Clueless townie? Read his filter in isolation. Pretty damned useless.
Funcnode's list is a sheep. Null read. Placing final nail in Xatalos's coffin?
Identifies the negative aspects of Xatalos' posting. Post is valid.
Defends his list as a non-sheep list. Makes some valid points. The list had minor novelty
Seems to like the HiroPro-Dittert---IMALLISON connection that Xatalos invented (don't understand it).
I like the "I need convincing"-stance from a playstyle point of view. Not sure if this is townie or not, though.
Suspects imallison. Look into this more? Would like to hear a longer case than the list-post summary.
Analysing emotions. "for fucks sake" seems genuine? I am not sure I like this post, but it's definitely a novel and interesting way of looking at things.
The rest of the post is a long list of happenings from funcnode's perspective. I am not sure what to think of it right now: it definitely gives more to read, so that's good.
Hrmmm, I don't understand the defense of Willz post. Regardless of alignment this was a bad post. Is happy on the willz defense, so if willz is scum, is a good option for scumbuddy. Null read in general, but liking wifom is very strange.
Townometer: i
Scumometer: i
LAST UPDATE April 18 @ 06:25
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Real time sparring! All right!
I never said Willz was town. I said I'm still suspicious of him. I'm just currently more suspicious of you, Xatalos!
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EPT![[image loading]](http://edge.alluremedia.com.au/m/k/2010/11/phoenix-wright-objection.jpg)
