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Day 3![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/0y5eO.jpg)
Acrofales ran for his life. He had strayed from the group while they slept for a walk, as he often did, but something was...off. He noticed a shadowy figure getting closer, and closer, and then suddenly, the world went black.
The Town awoke to the boom of the cannon, and the dawn of the third day.
Acrofales, the vanilla town, was killed!
It is now day 3, the day ends in 48 hours.
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Alright. One positivt thing actually comes from this. Now we know for sure that all of Acros' reads were genuine. I'm going to bed, see you tomorrow.
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On April 18 2012 08:03 vonKlaust wrote: Alright. One positivt thing actually comes from this. Now we know for sure that all of Acros' reads were genuine. I'm going to bed, see you tomorrow. Was going to post essentially the same thing. This definitely sheds some light on things.
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GG. DIE SCUM.
I have faith that this town will avenge me!
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On April 18 2012 08:03 vonKlaust wrote: Alright. One positivt thing actually comes from this. Now we know for sure that all of Acros' reads were genuine. I'm going to bed, see you tomorrow.
I find it hard to believe he would have fabricated such a huge amount of good content anyway... I'm left wondering, though, why there was so much dirt thrown at Acrofales and still he was shot. Probably they wanted to take out such a dangerous player anyway in the end.
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I'm not sure anymore about the Mafia read Acrofales had on yomi, but I certainly agree with Willz and funcmode. Let's lynch Willz now, though, since most can agree it's the best read we have at the moment.
KharadBanar, why no nightly post? Did you have to go AFK at such a moment? Luckily you weren't shot though. What do you think of the dying posts of Acrofales? He was your best town read, so I put value in your opinion.
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Okay, I'm going to sleep now. Read what Acrofales said and make your conclusions. Good night!
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I'm going to do what the good doctor ordered:
##Vote: Xatalos
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Alright, guess I'm on the chopping block again. First off, my read on Acrofales was that he was probably town from his behavior, but I was suspicious/could not dismiss the reasons as to why he stayed alive N1 compared to Arctic. Yes it is speculation on why Mafia choose to shoot, but if he stayed alive again another night would you not have been suspicious? The most towny of all of us continuing to stay alive? Think what you will, but Acro and Xata started defending each other heavily during the night as you can see, I was not willing to let that slide as a possible scum/scum or scum/town relationship (obviously Acro has flipped town, are you not suspicious of why Xata was so willing to go out of his way to defend Acro during a night phase when Acro was no where close to being lynched?) Why defend him so hard during night of all phases unless you think he's going to die and want to build up towncred from associating with him?
Secondly, here is my schedule. I am busy weekdays from 10am EST to 6PM EST with class, I have a 1hour30m commute, I have no smartphone to post on TL. I am sorry for my inactivity, it's pretty much the same reasons as what vonKlaust stated (that I am choosing to focus more on school than this) As many players are also European, this leaves me with no time to respond during key periods to when they are active compared to when I am. It's kind of hard to have a discussion when you guys are staying up late, and I can't because of schoolwork to do.
Thirdly, yes I have been terrible with posting reads of likely scum, it was one of the reasons I signed up to play another newbie game, I can post in a townie manner (as most of you can attest to the beginning of D1 at least) but I fail in identifying scum, which is a crucial part of playing this game. Considering I was also the preferred lynch for D1 as well, I have posted that a lot of you still find me as suspicious and posting bad cases would only continue to make me look bad, and posting cases on people who suspected me would only reek of OMGUS and be hard to substantiate. This is defensive reasoning for why I haven't contributed, but it's the truth unfortunately.
That being said, here are my reads so far for what they are worth.
Funcmode, the easiest opinion to reach, I have none because he hasn't posted enough to get a real feel for, he's still a lurker but the posts he's made have been semi-helpful, so I cannot rate him anything but neutral at this point.
Dittert, I don't believe that a Mafia would be so willing to tunnel a case on one player for the entire game, I think they would try and get a lynch in on a scummy looking town when they can. Yes he voted Yomi that one time, but other than that he's been consistent in targeting me. His case is also still really bad on its own, it never had any traction until a better town player came along and made the case for him, this can mean Dittert is really scum willing to let a town take the lead in a mis-lynch but this is his first game ever and I'm not sure if he would know to do that. Like I said, hard to read for me, I think he's town, others think he's mafia.
Xatalos, in the beginning I thought he was town, but he has been very spammy and willing to go after everyone at one point or another. Tunneled Yomi for a long time, switched the vote to me at my lynch, and then switched back to Yomi after I "convinced him of my towniness". This feels weak to me, I know I'm town but he can't know for sure, if he was willing to lynch me I think he should have stuck to it, and I even agreed with the reasons for lynching me (hence my martyrdom) Then Hiro makes his decent case against Xatalos D2 calling out his spam and his overmention of blues (the thing he initially called Arctic out for) Xatalos was set to be lynched, but Acro came in and posted a better case on Hiro and that caused everyone to change their minds, and led Xatalos to be gleefully happy and post this:
Show nested quote +On April 17 2012 03:23 imallinson wrote: I'm not so sure Hiro is scum. I think either Dittert or Xatalos are scum and whether Hiro is scum or not depends a lot on Dittert's alignment. I think what is interesting is that Hiro went from thinking Xatalos is reasonably town to picking him out as scum at the beginning of day 2. I haven't quite figured out his motivations for this yet and there is definitely a town explanation for this as well as a scum one.
Dittert is Scum If Dittert is scum it makes a lot of sense that Hiro is scum as well. Hiro makes a case for someone who is weak when his team mate is looking to get lynched. I think this is probably the case both ways (If Hiro ends up getting lynched and flips scum Dittert is probably scum too).
Dittert is Town However, if Dittert is town then it makes no sense for Hiro to be scum, he completely shuns the current consensus that Dittert is scum and goes for someone else to get lynched when it makes no difference to him. Therefore if Dittert is town I'm fairly sure Hiro is town. Consequently this makes me think Xatalos is scum.
So while your Hiro case has merit Acrofales, I still think Xatalos is the scummier of him and Dittert leaving Hiro as town. This gets me very interested in the possibility of HiroPro&Dittert&imallinson... I'll have to look how HiroPro and Dittert have talked about imallinson next! I'm actually getting pretty excited already. It's not too bad even if I die now, since the whole Mafia team has been potentially revealed. If I die and flip town, please focus your attention on these three players immediately. Don't forget to use DT/Vigi/Jailer. And heal Acrofales, I think. After we end up lynching HiroPro, he exhibits sadness but then has the bright idea to call for a DT to reveal themselves during the night when they 1) can't be verified, 2) can be counter-claimed so easily by Mafia, 3) if they do reveal themselves especially during night they can be killed off by Mafia. Did anyone really think this was a good idea? I would have expected better for Xatalos considering this is not his first mafia game and that he played scum previously and that is exactly what they want. I will make a followup post defending myself from his case as well. This is something to take note of for his behavior, please look through his filter and really think about whose scummier between us. If you want to claim OMGUS by me fine, I'm not going to defend that it's not, but look at the actions he's done compared to mine, and especially when he was the top vote candidate for D2 for the brief time he was. Was he really that helpful?
imallinson Summary of events, sheeped Xatalos's case on Arctic, I called him out on it. Contributed to thread by posting a case on the lurker trumpetarn (pretty easy to do as anybody, but as Mafia builds towncred) Other than his filter has generally been very short, he has been lurking a lot, decided not to bandwagon the case Acro made against me (even though it was a good case and worth lynching me over, decides to waste his vote continuing to vote trumpetarn) Broodking makes his fuckup, imallinson conveniently comes in late when the vote's already decided and sheeps that vote. D2 rolls over, posts that he's suspicious of Dittert now, sheeps Acro's vote on Dittert beginning of D2. Changes mind to Xatalos based on scummy behavior, then changes mind to Hiro following Acro's lead. Switches back to Xatalos during the night when discussing with Acro. Seems to me like he really is following in someone else's shadows, and I don't think he's very committed to lynching Xatalos considering he's been willing to switch to Dittert or someone else when convenient. Something to think about in my mind.
Yomi, I've stated it before, repeating it again, his aggressive behavior may be unpleasant, but that doesn't mean he's Mafia. I think he's tunneled several people which is a newbie town trait, and I don't think a scum would get into a rambling argument against Xatalos for that long. I could be wrong about this, but I'm focusing on trying to find one guaranteed scum, not look for connections.
vonKlaust, probably town, has been helpful with most of the posts, and comes off as unsure of himself, something that Mafia wouldn't probably exhibit cause it makes them look suspicious, at least to my mind.
KB, I'm still waiting for his game to step up, considering everyone gave him high praise for his play in Newbie VI. I took a look at his filter both this game and Newbie VI and while I consider him town, he needs to really step it up since we're at a mylo situation for town. This was why I was hesitant to trust in him even though its based on meta, but I'm really hoping he'll take over as town leader since Acro is dead.
In summary since this is a long post. My top scum reads are 1. Xatalos, 2/3 not sure about but I'm willing to vote Dittert/imallinson at this spot if it's the only alternative. ##Vote: Xatalos
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On April 18 2012 04:04 Xatalos wrote:Why To Lynch WillzShow nested quote +On April 12 2012 09:16 willz22912 wrote: If the rest of you are going to let that comment by Dittert slide, I'm going to be unhappy. That comment was 100% useless and even if he is town I'm willing to sacrifice him to weed out the real scum. First Mafia slip: why would you want to kill a townie just for posting a stupid suggestion? You even say specifically that his town flip would help "weeding out the real scum"... How exactly? It's not like a bandwagon on Dittert for his stupid play and a town flip would reveal anything useful for us, especially if there would be just a bandwagon on him and nothing else during Day 1. It would be a dream come true for Mafia, not for town. This was the beginning of D1, I was calling out Dittert for his bad suggestion and continuing to defend it, compare Dittert to Brood in terms of helpfulness overall. Dittert makes a rant against us after we lynch Brood for what everyone agrees was a 100% dumb move as town and a total scumslip, then makes an emo post martyring himself when he was the #1 target D2. If you think he's town, is this really helping? Both of them are "bad town" and have been very unhelpful, Brood especially pretty much ruined D1 because at least we would have ascertained either myself or Yomi's alignment with a successful lynch, which would have been more beneficial overall! Mis-lynches happen, it's part of Mafia, but that was seriously the worst thing he could ever have done to screw town over. I'm not sad over Brood's death since he wasn't helpful, but I can be angry at him and Dittert for being useless. I've been consistently defending Dittert and he's been consistently attacking me, when this game is over I really would appreciate an apology coming from him if we're both town, it's the least he can do.Show nested quote +On April 14 2012 04:07 willz22912 wrote: It's better to have me martyr myself for town than to try and save me at this point. In hindsight, this looks like potentially suiciding and denying additional information about Mafia connections for town. It's always better to say everything you have and prove your innocence: at the very least others will have something to discuss about next when you flip town. If you suicide as town, you just deny information and give a free kill for Mafia. If you suicide as Mafia, you protect your teammates and confuse town. [i] Are you conveniently ignoring the fact that when you told me to post what I could to be helpful that I did so? Are you really going to say my martyring myself was unhelpful for town considering the vote was 6+ at that point and I WAS AGREEING WITH YOUR REASONING TO LYNCH ME? You're acting like I did nothing but say, welp I guess I'm dead, /voteself, and left the thread. This is what Dittert did, not me, and I think this part of your case is terrible. Show nested quote +On April 16 2012 02:52 willz22912 wrote: Would you not agree that lynching someone who clammed up isn't as helpful as someone who tried to push cases on a lot of people without weight?
Here, just so my opinion is clear: ##Vote: Xatalos So it's better to lynch an active poster than a lurker, regardless of what you think of our Mafia probabilities? Lurkers benefit Mafia, active posters benefit town. Just because you're an active poster doesn't give you any more credibility than a lurker. What does lynching a lurker do when they haven't commented or associated themselves with anyone else? This is the main point I was against voting Dittert in favor of you, you have commented on many people, for example, your tunneling on Yomi can give towncred to Yomi if you flip scum, alternatively it can make Yomi look more suspicious if you flip town. You act like town knows exactly who to lynch at every point, I wish it was that easy, lynching is the only method for town to reliably obtain information outside of blue roles, we can't do the same for who Mafia shoots because it's entirely WIFOM speculation as to Mafia's motives which we do not have as town. Lynching you over a lurker would give more information, don't lie and say it wouldn't.Show nested quote +On April 17 2012 23:18 willz22912 wrote: If Acro doesn't get shot tonight, there is no other explanation other than that he is Mafia, he has been too visible for a town to be left alive this long. If Acro gets shot tonight, then Xatalos is probably Mafia for trying to buddy/defend Acro so hard (I will add more on to this as night rolls over, have to head to class soon.)
Malicious WIFOM making Acrofales look "bad" once KharadBanar or someone else with high credibility gets killed instead. Possibly a Mafia strategy to plant suspicion on Acrofales beforehand with this really weak WIFOM. This was WIFOM as to why Acro did not die N1, and don't tell me I was the only one who thought this. You have to speculate at some point as why to why certain people are being targeted and some people aren't. I already stated this to be WIFOM so calling it WIFOM isn't really a shocker. Considering Acrofales was shot, how does my WIFOM help him now since he's dead? We obviously know he's town now, can I ask you why you were defending him so hard during the night when he was only in danger from Mafia, not from town trying to lynch him?I'm in a hurry so this'll have to do, I'll be back later!
Responded to this case by Xatalos, my responses are in italics.
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EBWOB, fucked up my italics at one part of the response, you can clearly see the i in [] starting it but I forgot to end it, I hope you can notice that.
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EBWOB2: Reposting it to make it easier + added "to town" to the being unhelpful part.
Are you conveniently ignoring the fact that when you told me to post what I could to be helpful to town that I did so? Are you really going to say my martyring myself was unhelpful for town considering the vote was 6+ at that point and I WAS AGREEING WITH YOUR REASONING TO LYNCH ME? You're acting like I did nothing but say, "welp I guess I'm dead, /voteself" and left the thread. This is what Dittert did, not me, and I think this part of your case is terrible.
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I have a paper to write so I will be busy, if I see someone respond I'll try to respond as well in between writing the essay. The next time I will be posting other than that will be at ~9-10 AM EST before I have to leave for class. I will be back at 6PM EST after that to respond to more things. This is the best I can do for being active, please check timestamps if you're really paranoid, I've been pretty active on the weekends, really terrible on the weekdays (but consistent on those times) My spring break just ended which is why I was so active during the beginning of the game last week, I forgot Mafia runs on a 24hr Night and 48 hour Day schedule, in hindsight I should not have signed up because I didn't have the time to devote to this, sorry town if we lose this game, I was not very helpful and I'm unhappy with my play, but I'm not giving up just yet.
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On April 18 2012 11:23 Dittert wrote: I'm going to do what the good doctor ordered:
##Vote: Xatalos
You were consistent in voting me D2 over anyone else, why the sudden willingness to abandon that behavior, especially since Acro told everyone to consider me the lynch for D3? You've switched before when you've seen that my lynch was possible, why aren't you doing this now? I am baffled by your behavior and would like an explanation for this please.
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On April 18 2012 11:25 willz22912 wrote: , I have posted that a lot of you still find me as suspicious and posting bad cases would only continue to make me look bad, and posting cases on people who suspected me would only reek of OMGUS and be hard to substantiate. This is defensive reasoning for why I haven't contributed, but it's the truth unfortunately.
So you were afraid to post because it would make you look guilty. But when you were up on the chopping block you were willing to sacrifice yourself to give us the "connection" info that your flip would give us. At one point you are willing to engage in fearless town play, and at another trying to avoid suspicion at all costs. How can you reconcile these two positions?
@ Xatalos: You are not helpful when under scrutiny. You get very defensive. Look at page 6 of your filter. You go into "survival mode". Even pleading to my self interest to vote switch to save you. When others were about to be lynched, or were about to die they posted as much useful information as possible to help town before their death. Please respond to this allegation.
Dittert I am waiting for his "big D3 post that we will all ignore".
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On April 18 2012 12:34 yomi wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2012 11:25 willz22912 wrote: , I have posted that a lot of you still find me as suspicious and posting bad cases would only continue to make me look bad, and posting cases on people who suspected me would only reek of OMGUS and be hard to substantiate. This is defensive reasoning for why I haven't contributed, but it's the truth unfortunately.
So you were afraid to post because it would make you look guilty. But when you were up on the chopping block you were willing to sacrifice yourself to give us the "connection" info that your flip would give us. At one point you are willing to engage in fearless town play, and at another trying to avoid suspicion at all costs. How can you reconcile these two positions? @ Xatalos: You are not helpful when under scrutiny. You get very defensive. Look at page 6 of your filter. You go into "survival mode". Even pleading to my self interest to vote switch to save you. When others were about to be lynched, or were about to die they posted as much useful information as possible to help town before their death. Please respond to this allegation. Dittert I am waiting for his "big D3 post that we will all ignore".
When you're set to be lynched your first action should be establishing your innocence. Offence is best defence, is often said, but focusing only on offence might mean you have nothing to defend yourself with. I tried answering everyone's accusations, but it wasn't going well. I also gave my town and Mafia reads as openly as possible. After nothing came of it all, I was getting ready to give up already. Then I made my last effort and wrote the case against HiroPro. Suddenly Acrofales had also come to the conclusion that HiroPro was Mafia and everyone followed.
If you compare this chain of event to any other player very probably set to be lynched, I'd say my behavior during lynch pressure is still the most pro-town: 1) Willz defended himself pretty well at first, but didn't share his Mafia reads to us (outside of a pretty forced and lacking case against BroodKingEXE). Then he decided to /suicide and go AFK. 2) BroodKingEXE didn't even try, he just said "GG" and went away. 3) Dittert /suicided and went AFK immediately after the bandwagon started to form. 4) HiroPro said absolutely nothing to defend himself and then released his "case" (for a lack of better term) against me and Acrofales right before being lynched. Conclusion: none of them seriously tried establishing their innocence or giving "useful information" as they were set to be lynched.
If you compare me to these players and say I had the worst defense, I don't know what to say...
You have a good point about Willz. He apparently didn't care about his life and wanted to /suicide to "give information" at first, but then he proceeds to not make cases (or pretty much anything else) only in order to "appear less suspicious". This is a Mafia way of thinking: townies don't put appearing unsuspicious as the #1 primary goal.
I'm not sold on Dittert being either Mafia or town right now. He appears sometimes stupid and sometimes malicious. The most problems I have with this: 1) Acrofales is pretty much the best town read for everyone, HiroPro is at best a neutral read and a pretty useless lurker. 2) Acrofales posts lengthy and really good reasoning for why Willz is Mafia and urges us to vote for him. HiroPro just makes a last will claiming me&Acrofales as the Mafia team with mostly OMGUS/WIFOM reasoning. 3) Dittert votes for me despite HiroPro's last will just being mostly destroyed (Acrofales is obviously town and we can't be the Mafia team either, although it's still possible I would be a "loner" Mafia who is not supported by anyone else except the best town read everyone had all game) - his reasoning is "the Doctor told me to do it", although being a Doctor gives you no additional information, skill or authority... This is the weirdest turn-around all game (Willz surely Mafia ---> suddenly Willz not very suspicious). Also notice the timing: he's been "tunneling" Willz all this time, except now that there is a realistic chance of saving him, he suddenly decided he's not worth lynching after all and goes after the "easiest" alternative. He completely ignores the good reasoning from Acrofales and rides on HiroPro's Doctor status, because HiroPro's opinions suit his needs better than Acrofales.
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This is the deciding moment: if Willz is lynched, Mafia loses one member and the rest of Mafia are much easier to trace (Funcmode&Dittert?). If I'm lynched, town loses instantly. Read the filters of Willz and Acrofales, and choose town victory by voting for Willz.
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On April 18 2012 08:15 Xatalos wrote: I'm not sure anymore about the Mafia read Acrofales had on yomi, but I certainly agree with Willz and funcmode. Let's lynch Willz now, though, since most can agree it's the best read we have at the moment.
KharadBanar, why no nightly post? Did you have to go AFK at such a moment? Luckily you weren't shot though. What do you think of the dying posts of Acrofales? He was your best town read, so I put value in your opinion. Sorry about no nightly post. Spring break is over for me and I'm getting up at 8:15 AM again. I value my sleep schedule, so I went to bed before the Day post (I did address this in an earlier post).
SO, without further ado because I didn't die that night, here's my thoughts on the situation:
Acrofales being dead, we have to worry about who takes the initiative in leading the discussion and I'm currently not very comfortable with a potential scum member doing so in Xatalos (I don't think Xatalos should be our lynch since he's not the most likely of Mafia members, but enough so that I don't necessarily think him taking over is a good thing for town. I will be as active as I can while I can, during the [EU] day I will likely not be as active (read: probably not at all) because I'm at the university. vonKlaust, if you're reading this: make an effort and get active again, the town needs contributors now and you are probably the most towny player around besides me. If you make a thought out case, people are going to trust you, use that trust! About Xatalos, one last thing to note is that after willz' defense, Xatalos just attacked him further without addressing his defense. On this alone, I would argue that he's an even likelier mafia member than willz, but his activeness and general behaviour suggests otherwise.
willz22912: He defended himself (again!) and while his reasoning is okay in that, I'm still very unsure because of how often willz managed to get himself in such a situation in this game: No matter how good your defense is, if you have to defend yourself too often, then in general it's because you scumslip often and I'm going to get suspicious. In willz' case, I'm very suspicious. His reads are okay though, making a good point about imallinson.
About that: imallinson, where are you? You didn't do too much scummy, but you only ever contributed to discussion in easy ways, and it's not looking like you are making any attempt to get more active either. As a non-Dittert player, I expect better from you, and I'm slightly suspicious because of that since you look like you at least know what you are talking about, when you're talking.
That concludes my morning reads; if you're one of my suspected players get out there and say why I'm wrong, if you're not get out there and scumhunt! This may be our final day, let's not waste it!
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On April 18 2012 16:49 KharadBanar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2012 08:15 Xatalos wrote: I'm not sure anymore about the Mafia read Acrofales had on yomi, but I certainly agree with Willz and funcmode. Let's lynch Willz now, though, since most can agree it's the best read we have at the moment.
KharadBanar, why no nightly post? Did you have to go AFK at such a moment? Luckily you weren't shot though. What do you think of the dying posts of Acrofales? He was your best town read, so I put value in your opinion. Sorry about no nightly post. Spring break is over for me and I'm getting up at 8:15 AM again. I value my sleep schedule, so I went to bed before the Day post (I did address this in an earlier post). SO, without further ado because I didn't die that night, here's my thoughts on the situation: Acrofales being dead, we have to worry about who takes the initiative in leading the discussion and I'm currently not very comfortable with a potential scum member doing so in Xatalos (I don't think Xatalos should be our lynch since he's not the most likely of Mafia members, but enough so that I don't necessarily think him taking over is a good thing for town. I will be as active as I can while I can, during the [EU] day I will likely not be as active (read: probably not at all) because I'm at the university. vonKlaust, if you're reading this: make an effort and get active again, the town needs contributors now and you are probably the most towny player around besides me. If you make a thought out case, people are going to trust you, use that trust! About Xatalos, one last thing to note is that after willz' defense, Xatalos just attacked him further without addressing his defense. On this alone, I would argue that he's an even likelier mafia member than willz, but his activeness and general behaviour suggests otherwise. willz22912: He defended himself (again!) and while his reasoning is okay in that, I'm still very unsure because of how often willz managed to get himself in such a situation in this game: No matter how good your defense is, if you have to defend yourself too often, then in general it's because you scumslip often and I'm going to get suspicious. In willz' case, I'm very suspicious. His reads are okay though, making a good point about imallinson. About that: imallinson, where are you? You didn't do too much scummy, but you only ever contributed to discussion in easy ways, and it's not looking like you are making any attempt to get more active either. As a non-Dittert player, I expect better from you, and I'm slightly suspicious because of that since you look like you at least know what you are talking about, when you're talking. That concludes my morning reads; if you're one of my suspected players get out there and say why I'm wrong, if you're not get out there and scumhunt! This may be our final day, let's not waste it!
I agree that you and vonKlaust have more credibility and less holes in logic, so you two should try and lead the discussion. However, I can't be completely certain if either of you are town, so I'm going to continue being as active as possible, especially since you two have been a bit inactive.
Willz's defense is good, but if he's the Mafia leader, it would make sense. Everyone also keeps saying the Mafia team is good, which means they have superior argumentation skills (the average Mafia is more skilled than the average town in this game). I don't think I can beat Willz straight-on with logic and argumentation, but I'll try breaking his defense later when I have more time. Although I have more confidence in you than myself making him slip his defense right now... For now, I ask everyone to think about this: Willz is clearly one of the most skilled players in this game, yet his almost only pro-town contribution so far is his weak and forced case against BroodKingEXE. Does that make any sense for a town player?
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