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On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote:
My proposal for the scum team:
Scum #1: Xatalos
I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow.
Scum #2: Acrofales
Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day.
Scum #3
Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities.
Dittert:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch.
yomi:
This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives.
vonKlaust:
This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3
Funcmode:
It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment.
Willz:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz
Kharad:
I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town.
So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read):
#1: Xatalos (90%)
#2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not)
#3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise)
This post looks somewhat suspicious. Partly because it reminds me of a post I made in GoT as Mafia, but mostly because it's a really contentless post with WIFOM or non-existent reasoning (and random notes of confidence/doubt to various players).
You say your top Mafia read is me, yet your reason for that is "posts way too much". Really? If anything, I'd say "posts too little" would be a Mafia tell. And even if "posts too much" was a good Mafia tell, you say nothing else that would make me your top Mafia read. Really hard bandwagoning and casting suspicion without evidence.
Your reason for Acrofales as the second Mafia is pure WIFOM. Your only reason for him being Mafia is that he's been defending me, although nothing else truly points at him being Mafia (or me being a highly likely Mafia for that matter, although I sadly can't say I would have played purely pro-town).
Your reason for vonKlaust as the third Mafia is basically... non-existent. He's far from the only player who has during this game been flying under the radar (I'd say you're more guilty of that than vonKlaust).
Your reasoning in this post is exceptionally weak, almost malicious. Acrofales and vonKlaust have been generally among the highest town reads for the whole game, yet you're ready to discredit and/or kill them both for very weak reasons. Your point about killing me first to confirm them is yet again weak reasoning, since when I flip town with the lynch, Mafia has already won.
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United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 18 2012 01:57 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote:
My proposal for the scum team:
Scum #1: Xatalos
I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow.
Scum #2: Acrofales
Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day.
Scum #3
Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities.
Dittert:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch.
yomi:
This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives.
vonKlaust:
This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3
Funcmode:
It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment.
Willz:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz
Kharad:
I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town.
So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read):
#1: Xatalos (90%)
#2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not)
#3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise) Okay, I like that you're posting  If we forget about connections for a second, who would be your second-highest scum read. Because, apparently I am only scum if Xatalos flips red. If he flips green, then town is dead and I don't even get a chance. So, imagine Xatalos is green (despite thinking it's unlikely), who else might be scum at this point? At lylo we need to find 1 scum, not 3. That was one of the major things that I did wrong in thinking HiroPro was scum yesterday. My nightly reads will do the same: go back to basics and analyse players individually for scummy traits. No more connections, we worry about those AFTER we find the first scum.
Ignoring any connections. I'd say #2 is Dittert and #3 is Willz pretty much for the same reasons you are suspicious of them. Although this hits the same problem as the connection stuff. If my #1 scum read isn't scum it's not going to matter who I think is #2 because we would already have lost.
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Here's one thing we know about the mafia: they are good
so scenarios like xatalos going for this risky/aggressive playstyle with high volume posting is very possible as is acro trying to come out and be a town leader. that they are just lurking seems not so likely anymore. I believe we have been manipulated into the poor situation we find ourselves in.
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On April 17 2012 23:18 willz22912 wrote:
Now that town has successfully killed their own doctor (/facepalm) we can probably assume that Hiro probably medic'd Acro N1 because he had the most towncred among us.
Maybe I'm going too deep, but don't you mean OUR own doctor, not THEIR own Doctor?
On April 17 2012 23:18 willz22912 wrote:
If Acro doesn't get shot tonight, there is no other explanation other than that he is Mafia, he has been too visible for a town to be left alive this long.
So you're planning to shoot KharadBanar or vonKlaust instead of Acrofales, then get him lynched tomorrow with the support of HiroPro's last will about him - and planting baseless suspicion on him such as this?
I feel really bad about this, since I almost single-handedly saved you from lynching (convinced everyone to vote for yomi, which caused the stupid slip from BroodKingEXE). I was convinced by your defense while under lynch pressure, but you haven't done almost anything of worth after that. And now you post something like this, with horrible Mafia slips and obvious Mafia agenda. I'm disappointed in believing you earlier...
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I don't think mafia usually make such big slips like the their/our thing. Plus I believe it is grammatically correct once he establishes "town" as the subject he has to stay with third person. "the town has killed our own doctor" makes it sound like the town killed a mafia doctor
It is a weird post though I will give you that.
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On April 18 2012 02:28 yomi wrote:
Here's one thing we know about the mafia: they are good
so scenarios like xatalos going for this risky/aggressive playstyle with high volume posting is very possible as is acro trying to come out and be a town leader. that they are just lurking seems not so likely anymore. I believe we have been manipulated into the poor situation we find ourselves in.
I agree that the mafia is good this game, but that is not a reason to give up.
Yes, mafia could be hiding in the way you say. However, go over people's filters and look at who you REALLY think is mafia and post about that. This is a very noncommittal post. Lets look at how this plays out:
Yomi is town: Acro gets lynched and flips town. Yomi loses
Yomi is town: Acro gets lynched and flips scum. Yomi is forgotten because he never took a stance on the matter.
If you think I'm scum, come out and say why. I admit that technically, I could be scum and hiding behind my "town leader" facade, however I am a townie who is really doing his best to help this town to victory.
Yomi is scum: Acro gets lynched and flips town. Yomi's light suspicion flies under the radar.
Yomi is scum: Acro gets lynched and flips scum. Yomi points to his light suspicion and says "see, I knew he could be flying under the radar".
Same case can be made for your light suspicion on Xatalos. I currently don't have Yomi high on my scumdar, but winning is a group effort. I can't make all the reads by myself. I tried with HiroPro and was horribly wrong.
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On April 17 2012 23:18 willz22912 wrote:
Also notice Xatalos trying to discredit HiroPro's last testament and will, even though he didn't manage to finish his thoughts in time, HiroPro was 100% town, and he may have been on to something. Remember what he said, ignore Xatalos and look at Acro's filter.
What's wrong with discrediting HiroPro's last will if it's faulty? Being town doesn't make you right. The only confirmed townie so far I have real faith in is ArcticFox, which is logical considering he was killed by Mafia after all (why would they kill someone without town credibility?). It looks like you're just trying to ride on HiroPro's last will and to get either me or Acrofales lynched for tomorrow. And why would you urge people to ignore me? Even if someone looks suspicious, you shouldn't tell him to shut up, you should tell him to try and convince us of being innocent.
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On April 18 2012 02:44 yomi wrote:
I don't think mafia usually make such big slips like the their/our thing. Plus I believe it is grammatically correct once he establishes "town" as the subject he has to stay with third person. "the town has killed our own doctor" makes it sound like the town killed a mafia doctor
It is a weird post though I will give you that.
Okay, I guess you're right about that. It was just such an overall suspicious post that it might have meant something.
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Was hiropro not killed by mafia?
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On April 18 2012 02:56 yomi wrote:
Was hiropro not killed by mafia?
No. He was killed by 7 people. However you play that, there's a town majority there.
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On April 18 2012 02:23 imallinson wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2012 01:57 Acrofales wrote:On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote:
My proposal for the scum team:
Scum #1: Xatalos
I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow.
Scum #2: Acrofales
Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day.
Scum #3
Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities.
Dittert:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch.
yomi:
This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives.
vonKlaust:
This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3
Funcmode:
It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment.
Willz:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz
Kharad:
I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town.
So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read):
#1: Xatalos (90%)
#2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not)
#3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise) Okay, I like that you're posting If we forget about connections for a second, who would be your second-highest scum read. Because, apparently I am only scum if Xatalos flips red. If he flips green, then town is dead and I don't even get a chance. So, imagine Xatalos is green (despite thinking it's unlikely), who else might be scum at this point? At lylo we need to find 1 scum, not 3. That was one of the major things that I did wrong in thinking HiroPro was scum yesterday. My nightly reads will do the same: go back to basics and analyse players individually for scummy traits. No more connections, we worry about those AFTER we find the first scum. Ignoring any connections. I'd say #2 is Dittert and #3 is Willz pretty much for the same reasons you are suspicious of them. Although this hits the same problem as the connection stuff. If my #1 scum read isn't scum it's not going to matter who I think is #2 because we would already have lost.
No. This is not the same. This is your reads RIGHT NOW. You are suspicious of Xatalos, Dittert and Willz. That is good info to have. At the moment we have to lynch 1 scum. If we do that, THEN we can look at his connections. If we lynch Xatalos and he flips scum, then my defense of him was my second giant error of the game. But we make that connection when it happens. Keep an open mind for the moment and don't get stuck in what-if scenarios. Analyse the past, not the future.
I am interested in knowing why you're suspicious of Dittert. I said I draw a blank on Dittert. I think it's quite probable that he's scum. He has not contributed anything to the town, except a stubborn insistence that Willz and Yomi are scum, without actually trying to convince town. I made a mistake reading Hiro's empty filter and strange hops of reasoning as a scum filter and refuse to make that same mistake: I am thus thoroughly confused by Dittert. My case for vig shooting him is far more pragmatic than that. Although, at the moment I am thinking Willz is scum again and would be happy to vote alongside "crazy ol' Dittert".
So. Why the read as Dittert being scum?
While I'm trying to coax people out of silence. Dittert, you updated your case on Willz at the start of D2 and I have not much to comment on that, but what do you think of Yomi now? Still scum? Or is someone else Willz' scumbuddy?
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To what degree do you think they influenced the switch? Also would like xat to answer this or anyone else
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On April 18 2012 03:12 yomi wrote:
To what degree do you think they influenced the switch? Also would like xat to answer this or anyone else
Assuming Acrofales and KharadBanar are town, it looks like I was the most desired lynch target for Mafia. Acrofales started on Dittert and everyone bandwagoned him because they didn't want to stand out. Then I made some stupid posts, and a couple of people voted for me. Then Acrofales and KharadBanar voted for HiroPro along with me, and the rest followed (again not wanting to stand out). I'm the only player who was set to be lynched without initial "pro-town" influence.
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United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 18 2012 03:11 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2012 02:23 imallinson wrote:On April 18 2012 01:57 Acrofales wrote:On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote:
My proposal for the scum team:
Scum #1: Xatalos
I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow.
Scum #2: Acrofales
Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day.
Scum #3
Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities.
Dittert:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch.
yomi:
This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives.
vonKlaust:
This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3
Funcmode:
It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment.
Willz:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz
Kharad:
I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town.
So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read):
#1: Xatalos (90%)
#2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not)
#3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise) Okay, I like that you're posting If we forget about connections for a second, who would be your second-highest scum read. Because, apparently I am only scum if Xatalos flips red. If he flips green, then town is dead and I don't even get a chance. So, imagine Xatalos is green (despite thinking it's unlikely), who else might be scum at this point? At lylo we need to find 1 scum, not 3. That was one of the major things that I did wrong in thinking HiroPro was scum yesterday. My nightly reads will do the same: go back to basics and analyse players individually for scummy traits. No more connections, we worry about those AFTER we find the first scum. Ignoring any connections. I'd say #2 is Dittert and #3 is Willz pretty much for the same reasons you are suspicious of them. Although this hits the same problem as the connection stuff. If my #1 scum read isn't scum it's not going to matter who I think is #2 because we would already have lost. No. This is not the same. This is your reads RIGHT NOW. You are suspicious of Xatalos, Dittert and Willz. That is good info to have. At the moment we have to lynch 1 scum. If we do that, THEN we can look at his connections. If we lynch Xatalos and he flips scum, then my defense of him was my second giant error of the game. But we make that connection when it happens. Keep an open mind for the moment and don't get stuck in what-if scenarios. Analyse the past, not the future. I am interested in knowing why you're suspicious of Dittert. I said I draw a blank on Dittert. I think it's quite probable that he's scum. He has not contributed anything to the town, except a stubborn insistence that Willz and Yomi are scum, without actually trying to convince town. I made a mistake reading Hiro's empty filter and strange hops of reasoning as a scum filter and refuse to make that same mistake: I am thus thoroughly confused by Dittert. My case for vig shooting him is far more pragmatic than that. Although, at the moment I am thinking Willz is scum again and would be happy to vote alongside "crazy ol' Dittert". So. Why the read as Dittert being scum? While I'm trying to coax people out of silence. Dittert, you updated your case on Willz at the start of D2 and I have not much to comment on that, but what do you think of Yomi now? Still scum? Or is someone else Willz' scumbuddy?
Because he doesn't contribute much besides his constant insistence that Willz is scum. He started of being really meek and unsure of his ideas then Night 1 starts berating everyone for being idiots and did the same Night 2. This reeks of trying to make yourself seems pro town because you never voted for the townie that got lynched. His posting doesn't make much sense to me if he is town.
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On April 18 2012 03:21 imallinson wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2012 03:11 Acrofales wrote:On April 18 2012 02:23 imallinson wrote:On April 18 2012 01:57 Acrofales wrote:On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote:
My proposal for the scum team:
Scum #1: Xatalos
I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow.
Scum #2: Acrofales
Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day.
Scum #3
Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities.
Dittert:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch.
yomi:
This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives.
vonKlaust:
This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3
Funcmode:
It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment.
Willz:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz
Kharad:
I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town.
So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read):
#1: Xatalos (90%)
#2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not)
#3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise) Okay, I like that you're posting If we forget about connections for a second, who would be your second-highest scum read. Because, apparently I am only scum if Xatalos flips red. If he flips green, then town is dead and I don't even get a chance. So, imagine Xatalos is green (despite thinking it's unlikely), who else might be scum at this point? At lylo we need to find 1 scum, not 3. That was one of the major things that I did wrong in thinking HiroPro was scum yesterday. My nightly reads will do the same: go back to basics and analyse players individually for scummy traits. No more connections, we worry about those AFTER we find the first scum. Ignoring any connections. I'd say #2 is Dittert and #3 is Willz pretty much for the same reasons you are suspicious of them. Although this hits the same problem as the connection stuff. If my #1 scum read isn't scum it's not going to matter who I think is #2 because we would already have lost. No. This is not the same. This is your reads RIGHT NOW. You are suspicious of Xatalos, Dittert and Willz. That is good info to have. At the moment we have to lynch 1 scum. If we do that, THEN we can look at his connections. If we lynch Xatalos and he flips scum, then my defense of him was my second giant error of the game. But we make that connection when it happens. Keep an open mind for the moment and don't get stuck in what-if scenarios. Analyse the past, not the future. I am interested in knowing why you're suspicious of Dittert. I said I draw a blank on Dittert. I think it's quite probable that he's scum. He has not contributed anything to the town, except a stubborn insistence that Willz and Yomi are scum, without actually trying to convince town. I made a mistake reading Hiro's empty filter and strange hops of reasoning as a scum filter and refuse to make that same mistake: I am thus thoroughly confused by Dittert. My case for vig shooting him is far more pragmatic than that. Although, at the moment I am thinking Willz is scum again and would be happy to vote alongside "crazy ol' Dittert". So. Why the read as Dittert being scum? While I'm trying to coax people out of silence. Dittert, you updated your case on Willz at the start of D2 and I have not much to comment on that, but what do you think of Yomi now? Still scum? Or is someone else Willz' scumbuddy? Because he doesn't contribute much besides his constant insistence that Willz is scum. He started of being really meek and unsure of his ideas then Night 1 starts berating everyone for being idiots and did the same Night 2. This reeks of trying to make yourself seems pro town because you never voted for the townie that got lynched. His posting doesn't make much sense to me if he is town.
Did HiroPro's posting make sense as a townie?
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I don't want to go too far with this, since my previous speculation failed horribly, but it wouldn't surprise me if Willz+imallinson were Mafia. They have been very soft with each other and both read as Mafia for me right now (check my previous posts). I agree with Acrofales, however, that it's infinitely more useful to speculate like this once a Mafia has been confirmed. I'd be more willing to lynch Willz right now, considering his recent very suspicious posts and a suspicious history starting from Day 1. He also promised to play pro-town after avoiding lynch on Day 1 and then proceeded to not really contribute.
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United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 18 2012 03:29 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2012 03:21 imallinson wrote:On April 18 2012 03:11 Acrofales wrote:On April 18 2012 02:23 imallinson wrote:On April 18 2012 01:57 Acrofales wrote:On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote:
My proposal for the scum team:
Scum #1: Xatalos
I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow.
Scum #2: Acrofales
Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day.
Scum #3
Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities.
Dittert:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch.
yomi:
This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives.
vonKlaust:
This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3
Funcmode:
It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment.
Willz:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz
Kharad:
I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town.
So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read):
#1: Xatalos (90%)
#2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not)
#3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise) Okay, I like that you're posting If we forget about connections for a second, who would be your second-highest scum read. Because, apparently I am only scum if Xatalos flips red. If he flips green, then town is dead and I don't even get a chance. So, imagine Xatalos is green (despite thinking it's unlikely), who else might be scum at this point? At lylo we need to find 1 scum, not 3. That was one of the major things that I did wrong in thinking HiroPro was scum yesterday. My nightly reads will do the same: go back to basics and analyse players individually for scummy traits. No more connections, we worry about those AFTER we find the first scum. Ignoring any connections. I'd say #2 is Dittert and #3 is Willz pretty much for the same reasons you are suspicious of them. Although this hits the same problem as the connection stuff. If my #1 scum read isn't scum it's not going to matter who I think is #2 because we would already have lost. No. This is not the same. This is your reads RIGHT NOW. You are suspicious of Xatalos, Dittert and Willz. That is good info to have. At the moment we have to lynch 1 scum. If we do that, THEN we can look at his connections. If we lynch Xatalos and he flips scum, then my defense of him was my second giant error of the game. But we make that connection when it happens. Keep an open mind for the moment and don't get stuck in what-if scenarios. Analyse the past, not the future. I am interested in knowing why you're suspicious of Dittert. I said I draw a blank on Dittert. I think it's quite probable that he's scum. He has not contributed anything to the town, except a stubborn insistence that Willz and Yomi are scum, without actually trying to convince town. I made a mistake reading Hiro's empty filter and strange hops of reasoning as a scum filter and refuse to make that same mistake: I am thus thoroughly confused by Dittert. My case for vig shooting him is far more pragmatic than that. Although, at the moment I am thinking Willz is scum again and would be happy to vote alongside "crazy ol' Dittert". So. Why the read as Dittert being scum? While I'm trying to coax people out of silence. Dittert, you updated your case on Willz at the start of D2 and I have not much to comment on that, but what do you think of Yomi now? Still scum? Or is someone else Willz' scumbuddy? Because he doesn't contribute much besides his constant insistence that Willz is scum. He started of being really meek and unsure of his ideas then Night 1 starts berating everyone for being idiots and did the same Night 2. This reeks of trying to make yourself seems pro town because you never voted for the townie that got lynched. His posting doesn't make much sense to me if he is town. Did HiroPro's posting make sense as a townie?
No, but we can't just dismiss everyone's posting as "well they might just be playing town badly" or we get absolutely nowhere.
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United Kingdom3482 Posts
EBWOP: Which is why I'm not very sure of you being scum (it's very possible you just misread his bad town play as scummy and there was nothing malicious in it).
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On April 17 2012 23:31 Acrofales wrote:
@KB. I looked over your other Newbie game and you seemed to be a bit more active in D2 there, engaging people in conversation all over the place and more of a leader than a follower, as opposed to this D2. I have gone into a what-if scenario where we have so far been completely wrong in our scumreads and your name pops up on my scumdar. I don't think there is any harm in continuing the analysis and scumhunting in the night this time, because mafia can kill whoever they like as long as they get to manipulate tomorrow's vote. So. Scum top 3 and why.
I'm sorry, just came back from uni (long day today, and probably the rest of the week too) and read up on the thread:
I don't think as much as other people that Acrofales is scum. Mafia may be good, but I believe they're not good enough to make one of the top 2 town reads right now.
Top 3 5, in order of scumminess:
After willz22912's post about Acrofales, he (again) set off a scum warning in my head, and looking back to his posting history I realised that the only reason I unvoted him once was that his defense seemed genuine at the time. Now it looks as if he has to defend himself once too often. I really have a bad feeling about him.
yomi is still going strong as another probable read; he has seemed kinda middlish (between town and scum, rather on the townie side) for a long time, but I recently looked back at his Day 1 filter and boy does it look scummy. Looking at it again I don't really understand why town dropped him as the lynch for the day so quickly and went after BroodKingEXE.
imallinson is in the reverse situation: He looks pretty scummy in his latest posts, but not so much before that. I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt however, since BroodKing and HiroPro were pretty much lynched on the same basis and I have absolutely no intention of repeating that.
Dittert and Xatalos are not as suspect as during Day 2 coming from Acrofales' connection analysis, but they still have a way to go before being completely cleared in my mind.
That's it for my nightly reads, if that leads to Acrofales getting shot in the end I apologize, but I don't think he's the one to be hated on right now. I will probably see you again no earlier than tomorrow because my university schedule is really stepping it up after spring break, but I think I can make one or two posts from uni computers.
Go town!
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On April 18 2012 03:34 imallinson wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2012 03:29 Acrofales wrote:On April 18 2012 03:21 imallinson wrote:On April 18 2012 03:11 Acrofales wrote:On April 18 2012 02:23 imallinson wrote:On April 18 2012 01:57 Acrofales wrote:On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote:
My proposal for the scum team:
Scum #1: Xatalos
I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow.
Scum #2: Acrofales
Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day.
Scum #3
Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities.
Dittert:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch.
yomi:
This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives.
vonKlaust:
This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3
Funcmode:
It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment.
Willz:
This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz
Kharad:
I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town.
So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read):
#1: Xatalos (90%)
#2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not)
#3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise) Okay, I like that you're posting If we forget about connections for a second, who would be your second-highest scum read. Because, apparently I am only scum if Xatalos flips red. If he flips green, then town is dead and I don't even get a chance. So, imagine Xatalos is green (despite thinking it's unlikely), who else might be scum at this point? At lylo we need to find 1 scum, not 3. That was one of the major things that I did wrong in thinking HiroPro was scum yesterday. My nightly reads will do the same: go back to basics and analyse players individually for scummy traits. No more connections, we worry about those AFTER we find the first scum. Ignoring any connections. I'd say #2 is Dittert and #3 is Willz pretty much for the same reasons you are suspicious of them. Although this hits the same problem as the connection stuff. If my #1 scum read isn't scum it's not going to matter who I think is #2 because we would already have lost. No. This is not the same. This is your reads RIGHT NOW. You are suspicious of Xatalos, Dittert and Willz. That is good info to have. At the moment we have to lynch 1 scum. If we do that, THEN we can look at his connections. If we lynch Xatalos and he flips scum, then my defense of him was my second giant error of the game. But we make that connection when it happens. Keep an open mind for the moment and don't get stuck in what-if scenarios. Analyse the past, not the future. I am interested in knowing why you're suspicious of Dittert. I said I draw a blank on Dittert. I think it's quite probable that he's scum. He has not contributed anything to the town, except a stubborn insistence that Willz and Yomi are scum, without actually trying to convince town. I made a mistake reading Hiro's empty filter and strange hops of reasoning as a scum filter and refuse to make that same mistake: I am thus thoroughly confused by Dittert. My case for vig shooting him is far more pragmatic than that. Although, at the moment I am thinking Willz is scum again and would be happy to vote alongside "crazy ol' Dittert". So. Why the read as Dittert being scum? While I'm trying to coax people out of silence. Dittert, you updated your case on Willz at the start of D2 and I have not much to comment on that, but what do you think of Yomi now? Still scum? Or is someone else Willz' scumbuddy? Because he doesn't contribute much besides his constant insistence that Willz is scum. He started of being really meek and unsure of his ideas then Night 1 starts berating everyone for being idiots and did the same Night 2. This reeks of trying to make yourself seems pro town because you never voted for the townie that got lynched. His posting doesn't make much sense to me if he is town. Did HiroPro's posting make sense as a townie? No, but we can't just dismiss everyone's posting as "well they might just be playing town badly" or we get absolutely nowhere.
Thank you. However, starting D3 with everybody voting Dittert, because he is a non-contributing lurker is going to kill discussion just as surely as it did on D2. I am completely in favour of Dittert getting shot, because he really isn't contributing and I realise that I was wrong yesterday in calling for the vig to hold his shot if he wasn't sure. Regardless of whether you're sure, discussing a Dittert lynch will kill discussion and we have no real clue whether we're right or wrong.
The problem at lylo is that we NEED to lynch scum. All we know about Dittert is that he WILL behave erratically. I do NOT want to lynch erratic behaviour, I want to lynch scum. If we have a vig shot, Dittert needs to be killed. This will also give a crapton of info on Willz' alignment, who is currently skyrocketing my scumometer.
I trust this town to continue without me, but it must NOT discuss a Dittert lynch, as it is pointless.
So yeah: vig, if you exist, I urge you to shoot Dittert, regardless of alliance.
If the vig is Dittert himself: shoot your strongest scumread (hint, Willz  ) and CLAIM the shot!
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EPT
