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On July 08 2012 17:19 AmericanUmlaut wrote:
In fact, if they have faith in Keirathi's work thus far, they may have even considered Promethelax and myself to be better chances at getting a mislynch than Milton.
Another possibility, which I consider less likely, is that Promethelax really is scum and has been playing brilliantly (obviously I have proof for my own part that I'm town). I would say that we should return to the possibility and give him a harder look if we are at a loss for better scum reads. Our priority for today, though, is to survive one more day, and that requires that we lynch the best scumread we have. At the moment, my opinion is that that is Hopeless1der -- not just because of my hammer trap; that was just the cherry on top of a delicious scumcake.
I highly doubt that. At least 4 out of the 7 players have shown some support for one or the other of you. Fencar/Milton was still a null at best, I think.
As far as this scenario: it makes very, very little sense. If Prom is scum, there's virtually 0 chance that Hopeless is too. So do you believe that Prom could be scum or not? This is something you can't wait until later to decide if you plan to vote for Hopeless.
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So is everyone gone? Is anyone else going to Role-Claim?
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I apologize for not posting, family shit came up. It's all good now though. I'm surprised that Keirathi role-claimed but whatever if he's lying we can't do much about it right now. We still don't have a consensus on who's scum but I'm leaning towards Perfection for mostly the reasons said earlier but also he hasn't posted in 3 pages except to ask for a vote count(mind neither have I but as I said something came up.).
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On July 09 2012 03:12 Hopeless1der wrote:
So is everyone gone? Is anyone else going to Role-Claim?
I've been thinking about this, and I'm not sure that mass role-claim is actually a good move. If we're playing to win, just getting a lynch today can't be our only goal - we have to have a situation where we can continue to get good lynches with no mislynches for two more days after that. Is the information we get from the mass role-claim enough to balance painting a target on whatever blues we have?
Consider this: If Keirathi is scum, he's lying about his role (which was conveniently blocked when it could have been most useful to us). The PBUs all know whether he's lying or not. If we really go for a mass role-claim, at least one or two of the claims is absolutely certain to be a lie that we basically can't confirm, but the PBUs know who's lying. I think mass role-call is anti-town, as it generates a priority hit list for the scum players and doesn't necessarily generate any trustworthy information for town.
Just consider the situation we're already in: If Keirathi is actually town, the PBUs have no real reason to even night kill him any more, because in that case I can't see a reason that he'd lie about being roleblocked, and he'll spend the rest of the game roleblocked. I fully expect that he'll survive indefinitely now, because as long as he stays alive and keeps saying he's roleblocked, his claim is completely worthless to us. In that case, his role-claim has given us only the information that Myles is either town or a godfather. If he hadn't role-claimed, the PBUs wouldn't know if they'd blocked anything and might not keep him blocked in future nights.
On the other hand, if he's scum, his role-claim has (to the extent that we listen to him) only hurt town by introducing more unconfirmable misinformation. If we ask every player to role-claim, we're creating the same situation for every player.
I say let's leave the decision to role-claim or not to role-claim in the hands of the individual player. If you feel that claiming and coming forward with information you've gathered is of benefit to our cause, then by all means do so. If you feel that our chances of getting three lynches in a row are improved by keeping in the shadows and waiting a bit longer, then do that.
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Yea getting roleblocked really hurt my claim. I was really counting on having the information on Hopeless because that would have given information on multiple people rather than just the one. I was so worried about getting the one confirmation that I had out there that I never even thought about what would happen if I was roleblocked.
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Its lynch or lose. Why take the risk at this point in the game of not mass claiming. Do everything possible to NOT LOSE right now. Umlaut you're saying we should keep ourselves in the dark and rely on just the information we currently have, while Scum have an information advantage. Look how that method has worked out for town so far. We haven't hit one scum yet. That argument is complete bull. The biggest downside to not claiming is I'm going to end up lynched and town will lose the game. But that's exactly what you want, isn't it Umlaut? We're supposed to play WIFOM for the rest of the day instead of just claiming and discussing things with as open a table as we can. That sounds like a superb plan for scum to keep town in the dark.
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On July 09 2012 06:57 Keirathi wrote:
Yea getting roleblocked really hurt my claim. I was really counting on having the information on Hopeless because that would have given information on multiple people rather than just the one. I was so worried about getting the one confirmation that I had out there that I never even thought about what would happen if I was roleblocked.
Is this poor play or a scum claim? How does a townie with an active blue role forget about the possibility of a role block? Sure, some roles can't be blocked but the active ones all suffer from that possibility just to balance the game. I have a hard time believing that you didn't take this into account, ah well, you aren't my number one scum read. But if I am right and Hopeless is scum you are the clear follow-up, unless you give us a real read the next night (which is backed up by either a tracker or a watcher, if we have a tracker I would urge him to track Kier to be able to counter his claim of checking someone in case it is false) or are NK'd
On July 09 2012 07:19 Hopeless1der wrote:
Its lynch or lose. Why take the risk at this point in the game of not mass claiming. Do everything possible to NOT LOSE right now. Umlaut you're saying we should keep ourselves in the dark and rely on just the information we currently have, while Scum have an information advantage. Look how that method has worked out for town so far. We haven't hit one scum yet. That argument is complete bull. The biggest downside to not claiming is I'm going to end up lynched and town will lose the game. But that's exactly what you want, isn't it Umlaut? We're supposed to play WIFOM for the rest of the day instead of just claiming and discussing things with as open a table as we can. That sounds like a superb plan for scum to keep town in the dark.
My problem with this is that in theory I agree with it, we need to lynch right today and any additional knowledge helps us to do that. We also do still need to get two correct lynches after this and having confirmed power roles basically tells scum who to shoot which makes our job harder. I've been thinking about it a lot and I think that all information roles with something to add should claim (everyone has something to add). Any non-information blues (medic, vet, etc) should not claim unless they are in danger. Later in the day the others should come forward if they feel it is necessary just to narrow our lynch targets onto those non-blue players.
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On July 09 2012 09:20 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2012 06:57 Keirathi wrote:
Yea getting roleblocked really hurt my claim. I was really counting on having the information on Hopeless because that would have given information on multiple people rather than just the one. I was so worried about getting the one confirmation that I had out there that I never even thought about what would happen if I was roleblocked. Is this poor play or a scum claim? How does a townie with an active blue role forget about the possibility of a role block? Sure, some roles can't be blocked but the active ones all suffer from that possibility just to balance the game. I have a hard time believing that you didn't take this into account, ah well, you aren't my number one scum read. But if I am right and Hopeless is scum you are the clear follow-up, unless you give us a real read the next night (which is backed up by either a tracker or a watcher, if we have a tracker I would urge him to track Kier to be able to counter his claim of checking someone in case it is false) or are NK'd
I just didn't think it through very well. I misjudged my odds of actually being roleblocked because I was late getting home from work and was trying to get my claim post out before the night ended. Mafia got lucky, I got unlucky.
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I agree with Prom about the role claims. Medic/Vet roles don't really help us even if they're claimed, Unfortunately, his schedule is probably going to force him to vote me before he leaves for work. I sincerely hope something I've said has made him think twice about it because its just about game over otherwise. I've already made my claim so there won't be any last minute blue claim from me. Just a good ol' green flip.
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After mulling over this absolutely as much as I can stand, I believe that my vote today is going to go to AmericanUmlaut.
On top of the arguments Hopeless made + Show Spoiler +On July 05 2012 03:24 Hopeless1der wrote:Unfortunately our strongest reads have either flipped town or have been replaced, so its hard to stick to the case on Fencar/Miltonkram, or to build a solid case on BLiND-RawR/Keirathi. Fencar was decisively anti-town, but perhaps not scum. I know JH and others were adamantly against lynching when I wasn't certain of scum, but if I can't confidently identify scum, I'd rather lynch anti-town behavior on the chance that I get scum, which is what I view Fencar's play as. If my reasons or reads are not good enough, I'm trusting the rest of town to point out the scummier player to me when I don't see it. The most suspicious person I've identified based on the way the game has progressed is AmericanUmlaut. While he's been active, he hasn't posted very detailed reads. He also backed the Intact case, essentially copying mine and expanding on it, but never actually acknowledged that I'd made a case. In addition, the way his "Lurker PBU" Post went, he completely brushed off the actual lurkers in favor of the case he really wanted to discuss. He was also involved in both mislynches, but switched his vote Day1 after the bandwagon had started to roll. His vote was against me, but he has never really gone into any detail about his read on me, just piggy backing JH's case from Day1. This suspicion hasn't been addressed by him, but he's carried it through at the end of his Intact case, which as I've pointed out came AFTER mine: + Show Spoiler +On July 02 2012 20:53 AmericanUmlaut wrote:The lurking PBUThere are currently four posters whose activity levels are low enough that I'd characterize them as lurking: Intact, BobTheLob, Blind-Rawr and iamperfection all have less than a page of posts, which is very little considering the amount of discussion that went on prior to the game actually starting. There are three PBUs. If they are playing intelligently, they will have noticed from the beginning that this game has had a fairly large number of lurkers, and one of them will be chilling among them and doing their best to just scoot by. It's possible that two scum are lurking, but I would guess that the others are among the more active posters because having only a single active community member puts you in a bad position if that player gets lynched; the PBUs lose their ability to manipulate debate, and one of the previous lurkers trying to establish their voice afterward is obviously scummy play. I think that my logic for concluding that at least one of the four low-post players is a PBU is strategically sound. Ideally we would flush them out by getting the other three to start posting more analysis, but I think it's clear at this point that we're going to have to win this with a couple of low-content players amongst us, which means we need to figure out which of the lurkers is most likely our PBU. We have little to go on, but let's take a look at what's available: iamperfection: His posting day 1 was worthless. Since day 2 has begun, he's started to participate, albeit in a very low-key manner. I'd like to see more thought-out posts from him, but I'm leaning toward his being one of the good guys and just unsure of how to play as the game got going. BobTheLob: His posting day 1 was worthless. His posting day 2 is worthless. My read is entirely worthless, because he's not playing. In an environment where everyone was being super productive and he was just posting about how drunk he is, I'd say let Kwark pop him, but I feel like the odds are too good that he's actually just a really awful town player to take that risk. Blind-RawR: Also posting so little actual analysis that it's hard to make any kind of useful read. However, Hopeless1der's case against him is such a stretch that my conclusion is that it's almost certainly a clumsy attempt at provoking another mislynch and that Blind_RawR is thus probably town. Which leaves us with: Intact: Show nested quote +On June 29 2012 20:22 Intact wrote:
I think I saw this type of play in a previous mafia game. Not sure which one though. There were 2 mafia who argued agressivly towards eachother early on. This reminds me of that occasion. This is basically Intact's first move of the game: A vague reference to how maybe JH and Anacletus might both be scum, but presented in such a way that it's easy to distance yourself from later on. I acknowledge that I responded with agreement that this could be a useful bit of analysis if one of them flipped red, but knowing that both were town makes this look like an attempt to get discussion moving toward a mislynch. Show nested quote +On June 30 2012 10:29 Intact wrote:
I'm going to stand by my read as analectus being scum but I have also become very suspicious of promethelax. People may have been bandwagoning analectus but as soon as he got into lynching territory promethelax show up with a long thread pointing out someone else, thereby making some people switch vote. This causes divisions and tensions among the town which is exactly what the scum want. I lean more towards fencer just playing badly and promethelax trying to save his scum partner analectus. I really don't see anything suspicious about Promethelax's case against Fencer. I think I'm not alone when I say that he's around the top of the suspects list at the moment. What about Promethelax's analysis of Fencer's play seemed suspicious? This seems like an attempt to just sow dissent without any real logic behind it. And then comes this brilliant observation: Show nested quote +On June 30 2012 10:48 Intact wrote:
In addition, should we lynch analectus and he turns put to be mafia, it would make it fairly easy to point out the other mafia. And if he turns out to be townie it would be very easy to confirm some townies. Anacletus was, in fact, one of the good guys. We banned him. By what logic are we now able to confirm some townies? This post is just stupid, and to me it stinks of someone who is playing with the full information that a PBU has, and hasn't thought through the logic of the limited information environment that we town players are in enough to fake logical conclusions that sound like they were made by a townie. Summary: Four players (25% of the game population) are posting at barely-there levels, which leads me to conclude that at least one PBU is almost certainly hiding among them. An analysis of the few posts that they have made leads me to conclude that Intact is by far the most suspicious among them. The scumteam I currently have in mind is Intact, hopeless1der and Fencer710. Of the three, I feel the most strongly about Intact and hopeless1der; I feel like Fencer could conceivable be really bad and having a panicky reaction to being suspected. If anyone could help me analyze the way those three have interacted to argue either in favor of or against my hypothesis, I'd really appreciate the help. Regarding the bolded in the last paragraph of the quoted post above...serious conflicting ideas there considering I'd just posted a large case that unfortunately contributed to lunching a VT. He completely agreed with my case though, even if he never referenced it. Since then he still kind of keeps my scumminess on his backburner but never addresses the case against me, and it feels like hes waiting for someone to bring it back up so he can jump on it. I'm stuck in null-read (I hope) limbo and I feel like I'm an easy bandwagon target so I'm very suspicious of his play regarding the case on me. Once Keirathi posted his detailed read of the thread so far, Umlaut felt it was necessary to piece-by-piece defend himself but has been pretty mute on the course of events otherwise. This isn't pro-town and sounds like he just wants to deflate Keirathi's contribution so that we end up with less credible information. Then again, so did Promethelax, and I'm watching him a bit more closely now, but I don't feel Keirathi's read on him is as strong as he's made it out to be. In addition, Prom didn't really attack Keirathi's post, and felt like a much calmer, reasoned defense than the tone of AmericanUmlaut's. FoS: AmericanUmlaut There is still the issue of Fencar/Miltonkram's case to look at...I guess I'll wait until Milton has a chance to catch up? Or possibly what turns up after the NK. There isn't anything new to pursue on Fencar aside from drawing arbitrary conclusions on why he chose to give up and that is not worth it to me. We're kind of forced to push that case based on what we had before Milton came in or else we lose a lot of our previous reads based on Fencar's behavior-related scumminess because Milton now has the opportunity to correct it even if he turns out to be scum.
1) Besides 2 of his "scumteam" flipping green already, he used Promethelax's scumteam verbatim.
2) JH was suspicious of him Day 1 and was NK'd on N1. Not that that is conclusive evidence, but it is circumstantial evidence, and something to keep in mind.
3) He got very defensive as soon as I mentioned him in my notes, despite giving him a light read.
4) His unvote yesterday only makes sense if Hopeless was scum, which I don't believe at this point. The fact that it didn't work leads me to believe that at least one of Prom/UA were scum, so the "gambit" was just show to buy town cred.
5) The thing that really sealed the deal for me, though, was Hopeless's argument about the votes on Anacletus day 1. When you put that on top of everything else, it pushes him to scum read for me.
After UA, the only other person I would feel comfortable voting for today would be iamperfection.
1) Extremely non-committal all game until:
2) Conveniently showed up on the MYLO day and gave his only really big read and push for someone.
3) Again, back to Hopeless's argument about votes: if you assume that mafia were trying to avoid putting all 3 of themselves on the Intact bandwagon, then perfection is the only person still in the game who didn't vote for Intact. (Well, I guess BlinD wasn't on the Intact vote either, but he also only had 1 post in all of day2 and didn't make a vote at all).
4) The death of Milton right after he made the read on perfection is fishy, but again, not concrete evidence, just circumstantial.
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Day 4 Vote Count:
Not Voted: Everyone
With 7 players alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Currently, no one is set to be lynched Day 4. 7 hours remain in Day 4.
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As your probably gathered either by reading my filter or my lack of an early post I don't work on mondays.
That said I also won't be around all day since it is my day off and my family is coming to visit us next week, house cleaning sucks.
I'm going to spend some time looking into filters and making sure that my, hopefully not, last vote is for scum. Since it is do or die today I'm going
Kier: if you are around could you explain to me why AU is no more scum than me? I see the reasons you posted but they don't seem sufficient to make a 45% change in his scumminess. Maybe a 25% bu nothing so drastic as to make me totally positive that I will rest the fate of town on him being scum. How did I drop two (or more) spaces in your scum hierarchy? You aren't even comfortable pushing your scummiest read (me) from yesterday when we're in a lylo situation.
What I'm saying is: where does this inconsistency come from?
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And, in addition to that how did Hopeless become townie in your eyes? You had him as a scum read when you first showed up and are claiming to have investigated him last night without result. Why are you no longer willing to vote for him when he was a top 3 scum read? Of your other top threes you investigated 1 who came back green and you have deiced, it appears, that I am town as well. There is nothing in your filter to suggest why you changed your mind about Hopeless' play from scum to town and that worries me since Hopeless has been a scum read for just about the whole game and he keeps no getting lynched. Since he is probably scum and certainly still my best scum read your soft defense of him isn't working for me.
Explanation please.
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Hopeless and Keir, your attempt to push a mislynch against me through is really transparent, and I don't think it's going to work.
Yesterday I was a 30 on the Keir Scale of Scumminess, today I'm scummier than Promethelax? And that completely without explanation? As Prom pointed out, that just doesn't make any sense. Are you planning to offer us townies an explanation? As far as I can tell, you were pretty much certain that Promethelax was scum, and you haven't posted anything that indicates that your opinion on that matter has changed. And I've jumped from 30% to 76% or more because I responded to what you considered "scummy" about me in your poo-flinging post? That's.... strange, to say the least. Shouldn't everyone in that post who had debated with someone who called them out for scummy behavior have had at least 46%?
I'm still pretty torn on which of you should be taken out first, but I no longer have any doubts that you're both scum and working together. For lack of a good reason one way or the other, I'm voting that we take out Hopeless tonight in memory of our dear departed JingleHell, who knew from day one that he was up to no good.
##Vote Hopeless1der
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Oh, I totally forgot to point out the laughable nature of the whole deal around my vote on Anacletus day 1. I was completely clear at the time that I thought it was beneficial to town day 1 to have everyone vote and switch their votes as the debate progressed as a way of forcing opinions on the table. I did exactly that.
You're basically saying that I must be scum because I voted for Anacletus third, after Fencar (twice) and Intact. Based on your logic, Fencar and Intact must both be pretty scummy, right? Except they both flipped green, oops. After me came BlinD-RawR (that would be you, Keirathi), then Bob, then JingleHell. Of those listed, JingleHell and I switched to Hopeless1der, unfortunately without enough support to change the day 1 ban.
The whole argument makes no sense. I'm scummy because I behaved very similarly to no fewer than three confirmed town players? Why couldn't scum have spent the whole game making arguments this dumb? We'd have won by now.
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On July 09 2012 23:58 Promethelax wrote:
Kier: if you are around could you explain to me why AU is no more scum than me? I see the reasons you posted but they don't seem sufficient to make a 45% change in his scumminess. Maybe a 25% bu nothing so drastic as to make me totally positive that I will rest the fate of town on him being scum. How did I drop two (or more) spaces in your scum hierarchy? You aren't even comfortable pushing your scummiest read (me) from yesterday when we're in a lylo situation.
What I'm saying is: where does this inconsistency come from?
I don't necessarily think he is scummier than you. I also don't think I'm a good enough debater/convincing enough to get people that have shown you support all game to vote for you. The longer you stay alive, the scummier you seem, so while I feel you and AU and approx. the same read right now, I'm a bit more comfortable voting him today than you.
If you really want, I can lay out my full case against you, too, though.
On July 10 2012 00:12 Promethelax wrote:
And, in addition to that how did Hopeless become townie in your eyes? You had him as a scum read when you first showed up and are claiming to have investigated him last night without result. Why are you no longer willing to vote for him when he was a top 3 scum read? Of your other top threes you investigated 1 who came back green and you have deiced, it appears, that I am town as well. There is nothing in your filter to suggest why you changed your mind about Hopeless' play from scum to town and that worries me since Hopeless has been a scum read for just about the whole game and he keeps no getting lynched. Since he is probably scum and certainly still my best scum read your soft defense of him isn't working for me.
Explanation please.
I dunno, its hard to explain. His recent posting reeks of...desperation? But basically my whole scumread on him was based on his Day 1 actions, and there's virtually nothing since then that really feels scummy. I haven't completely dismissed him, but for now I'm not voting for him.
As far as my percentages changing, my reads were from Day1+Night1+Day2+half of Night2. Now I've been playing for another Half of Night2+Day3+Night3+Day4. There's basically double the information now.
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AmericanUmlaut wrote:
You're basically saying that I must be scum because I voted for Anacletus third, after Fencar (twice) and Intact. Based on your logic, Fencar and Intact must both be pretty scummy, right? Except they both flipped green, oops.
Other people being bad doesn't excuse *YOU* being bad. Although, I'm not really saying you're scum because you voted for Anacletus, I'm saying you're scum because you didn't vote for Anacletus. I don't think all 3 scum were on the Anacletus vote, and you and Hopeless are the only 2 still alive who weren't voting for him.
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On July 10 2012 02:00 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +AmericanUmlaut wrote:
You're basically saying that I must be scum because I voted for Anacletus third, after Fencar (twice) and Intact. Based on your logic, Fencar and Intact must both be pretty scummy, right? Except they both flipped green, oops.
Other people being bad doesn't excuse *YOU* being bad. Although, I'm not really saying you're scum because you voted for Anacletus, I'm saying you're scum because you didn't vote for Anacletus. I don't think all 3 scum were on the Anacletus vote, and you and Hopeless are the only 2 still alive who weren't voting for him.
...therefore vote Hopeless since he is scum.
Yeah, this wishwashy crap from Kier has to go. Because of his claim I don't want to lynch him on the off chance (<10% in my mind) that he is telling the truth since if he really is dt we need him to win this game. Hopeless on the other hand has been playing scummy all along and Kier, my other high scum read, is now defending him after attacking him to create distance but not voting for him.
I'll be voting Hopeless today and I'm confidant that we'll be on the right track to win this game after he is gone. Next up will be Kier unless he comes out with some brilliant reads coupled with dt investigation. His whole play has been full of shenanigans at this point investigating Myles instead of me his first night...I was his scummiest read and a player who all of you had as a town read. If he had looked at me to get a check on night one he would either know I was town and start to listen to me or know I was scum, claim and get me lynched which would be a huge win for town. Instead he checked Myles who, even if he was scum wasn't doing much so getting him lynched would not impact the scum team in a major way (unless he agrees with whoever said that the scum power roles are lurkers).
So, with the inconsistencies in Kier's play and the scummy way Hopeless has been playing I am going to vote for Hopeless. Kier has put too much into the defense of Hopeless which makes me feel that Hopeless is more important to the mafia team. That only makes sense if he has a power role so I'm going to lynch Hopeless and next cycle Kier. Which will give us two dead scum and only one left to find.
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oh, yeah, I forgot:
##: Vote: Hopeless1der
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EPT
