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Alright, I'm going to get my thoughts out here before the day post.
I agree with AU that Hopeless must be scum. I've got a fairly strong town read on both Promethelax and AU. Come day, if I'm still alive, I will vote for Hopeless.
... and yea, the townsfolk did then sacrifice his body to the hamster gods.
Moving on. I realized that a lot of my cases against the other players have been created based on process of elimination. While I don't mind discussion at night, I find that conversation on townie reads during the night only benefits scum. Hence, I will be posting this right before the day post so as not to give the PBU's more information.
Myles- I have a slight townie read on him. During the beginning of the game, he clashed a little bit with JingleHell. JingleHell was doing his best to be a strong voice for the town. I find scum players will typically agree with a strong townie voice rather than risk being brought into the spotlight. The fact that he was suspicious of JingleHell's intentions gives me a townie vibe, even though it was over an issue of semantics. A scum player would know that JH was town and likely wouldn't disagree with such a strong townie voice.
iamperfection- I'm pretty sure he's scum. Just look at my case against him.
Keirathi- Blind-Rawr put Keirathi in a bad spot. If I disassociate the play of both players I can see that Keirathi is playing fairly close to his town meta. That leads me to believe that Blind-Rawr was a weak/disinterested town player. Barring further evidence, I'm giving Keirathi the BOTD.
BobTheLob- I'm guessing he is our last scum player and iamperfection was going for a full on bus against him during D3. It would make sense considering his "I'm about to give up" post. It would also explain iamperfection's sudden flurry of activity.
These reads are subject to change, but I feel fairly confident in them. If I find any evidence for or against them I will post it. I don't mind if we agree to lynch Hopeless right away, but don't let that kill discussion.
This goes out to everybody. Do you agree with my reads? Is there any evidence for or against my reads that you can present? I'll be making a quick run out to the store, but then I'll be back before work to contribute some more.
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As much as I hate to do this, its LYLO so I'm going to give us the best chance of winning, even though it will probably cost me my life.
I am Motbob (Detective). I've hinted at it a few times already, not that that's proof or anything, but maybe someone picked up on it.
On Night 2, I investigated Myles. He returned Innocent. You'll notice that I gave him a high read in my night post, but then I laid off pressing him during the day. The possibility of a GF makes me still not dismiss him 100%, but I wouldn't vote him unless there was only 1 maf left and he was still alive.
Tonight, I am investigating Hopeless1der. I had a decently strong read on him coming into D3. His posting has improved a lot since N1, but I'm not entirely convinced after the no-lynch. However, if he returns innocent, then there's a decent chance that one of UA/Prom are mafia. We shall see.
I'll be posting the result on him as soon as I get the PM.
I had a hard time deciding who to Investigate tonight. If I look at everyone with what-if-this-person-is-mafia goggles, I can make a reasonable case against every single one. The main reason I decided to go with Hopeless in the end is that because of UA's last second unvote plan, we get information on 2-3 people instead of just 1.
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Night Three has ended. Day post is coming in just a few minutes.
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End of Night 3
ghost_403 hurried through the dark streets of NYC. The sun was just beginning to crest the far horizon. He knew he didn't have much time left. He felt his phone vibrate. No. Not again. He looked down to see the incoming text message. He released a sigh of relief when he saw it was from one of the TL admins, but his respite proved to be brief.
Somehow the conspiracy had managed to hack the account of one of the admins, releasing several bans before the TL central computer's automated defense programs shut them down. Most of the banned accounts were nobodies, but one name stuck out. Before he could react, ghost recieved another text. It was from TheToast. "looool nice going ghost! It looks like yet another one of your little band has fallen! Hahaha". Ghost was enraged, but he knew he needed to keep his cool. He had one and only one chance left to defeat the conspiracy, and time was now extremely short.
Ghost ran off through the streets of NYC into the twilight of the dawn. The final confrontation was now not long off...
Miltonkram playing the trusted ABL Poster, has been banned (killed)!
It is now Day 4. You have 48 hours to decide on your next lynch.
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I was roleblocked 
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Boooooo! I wanted to keep playing.
GG everybody 
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GG Milton. Sorry you had to come into a bad spot from a player who gave up.
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United States5162 Posts
Given Keirathi's latest revelation and the results of the night, I'm thinking that Hopeless, iamperfection, and bobthelob are the scum team. Even without the confirmation on Hopeless, the case Umlaut made is 100% valid imo.
It's hard to make a solid case for bob or perfection one way or another, so it's basically down to process of elimination. I've had a town read on Prom for a while now. Umalut's last minute change makes me pretty certain he's town. And Keirathi saying his investigation revealed town on me after he was initially quite suspicious makes me think his role claim is legit - that, or we don't have a dt which seems incomprehensible for a newb game.
I still think bob voting himself is a tell that he is scum. My reasoning is that a real townie, even a dumb one, would consider the fact that putting a second vote on themselves makes it possible for scum to hop on and seal the lynch in that situation. Since he is scum it didn't cross his mind because he was focused on looking pro-town and going along with the no-lynch.
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On July 08 2012 08:27 Myles wrote:
I still think bob voting himself is a tell that he is scum. My reasoning is that a real townie, even a dumb one, would consider the fact that putting a second vote on themselves makes it possible for scum to hop on and seal the lynch in that situation. Since he is scum it didn't cross his mind because he was focused on looking pro-town and going along with the no-lynch.
AmericanUmlaut suggested that we all vote for ourselves a while back when I mentioned that we would all have to have different votes for a no-lynch to work. Assuming he read that and remembered it, it was not necessarily a scum slip, just not paying attention and thought that was still the plan.
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United States5162 Posts
On July 08 2012 08:37 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2012 08:27 Myles wrote:
I still think bob voting himself is a tell that he is scum. My reasoning is that a real townie, even a dumb one, would consider the fact that putting a second vote on themselves makes it possible for scum to hop on and seal the lynch in that situation. Since he is scum it didn't cross his mind because he was focused on looking pro-town and going along with the no-lynch. AmericanUmlaut suggested that we all vote for ourselves a while back when I mentioned that we would all have to have different votes for a no-lynch to work. Assuming he read that and remembered it, it was not necessarily a scum slip, just not paying attention and thought that was still the plan.
That's why I think it was a slip, because an actual townie would be paying attention to fact that they opened to door to getting themselves lynched.
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United States5162 Posts
EWBOP - That, or he really is as dumb as he portrays.
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United States5162 Posts
EBWOP - And goddamn I messed up 'the' twice in my first post.
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I still think that Kier's posting seems scummy and this play would be a great gambit if it is one. The whole thing comes up null to me, either he is our dt or he is a really excellent scum player. Either way I don't think lynching into him is a good idea, Hopeless is scummier and I'm not risking mis-lynching into our dt to lose us the game even if I don't think the claim has any proof behind it.
Keir: Did you breadcrumb your role or your first check? If so where?
Also: thanks for FoSing me, I didn't expect to live this long.
We need to lynch 100% scum today, now I think Hopeless is our best bet of a scum lynch and, assuming we are right we'll get another day to read from and see what has happened.
Who do each of you think is most scummy? We have to lynch our number one target, we can't settle for second best or probably scum. If you were mayor who would die tonight? I want an honest up-front answer from each of you which starts with the simple sentence: "If I were mayor X would die tonight" and a follow up of your reasoning.
That said, if I were mayor Hopeless1der would die tonight.
He is the scummiest player we have in this game and Umlaut's gambit last night makes me more sure of Hopeless than of anyone else. As you know from my vote yesterday I already thought that he was the scummiest since I voted before we went for a no-lynch. The way things played out yesterday reenforced my belief that Hopeless will flip red. So I will be voting Hopeless1der and urge you all to do the same. We can still bring this back and win it.
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United States5162 Posts
Based on what happened, Hopeless is scum, or the mafia played some exceptional meta-gaming by predicting Umlaut's plan, since them jumping on last minute would have tied things up unless our medic got their first save of the game. That or everyone's read on you except Keirathi's had been wrong, and Umlaut's post was it's own meta-game, but that seems very unlikely at this point. Hopeless seems most likely and we have to go with that.
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@Promethelax: I did drop some hints about my role.
On July 05 2012 06:00 Keirathi wrote:
I feel like its my job as a townsperson to thoroughly investigate everyone individually
On July 07 2012 01:14 Keirathi wrote:
I felt it was my job to make a thorough investigation of everyone with "what-if goggles"
On July 07 2012 03:50 Keirathi wrote:
I feel sure we have at least 1 more [blue role]
As far as my first check, you can see in my notes that I had him as my second highest %, but once the day started I barely mentioned him except when I was specifically replying to Hopeless's post, and then I mentioned that I was giving him the BOTD and not pursuing his case.
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EBWOP: As far as who I think is scummiest, I'm leaning towards Iamperfection right now. I'll take another look through him and Hopeless tonight and decide on who I would want to push.
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Okay I'm back earlier than I said I'd be. I'd like everyone to role claim before the end of the first 24 hours if possible. (17ish hours from now?) Promethelax seemed fine with the idea. Does anyone have an issue with this?
The biggest defence I have right now is my suspicions of Umlaut as he's the most involved in sealing the deal. If he was scum, his gambit could never have worked the way he described (as Prom pointed out), but everyone is using that as the final piece of the puzzle to peg me as scum.
This only works if AmericanUmlaut is town, which is in no way confirmed by any checks. We have only our reads as far as I know, so my only way out is to convince you he's scummier than me. In his scum-list post (+ Show Spoiler +On July 02 2012 20:53 AmericanUmlaut wrote:The lurking PBUThere are currently four posters whose activity levels are low enough that I'd characterize them as lurking: Intact, BobTheLob, Blind-Rawr and iamperfection all have less than a page of posts, which is very little considering the amount of discussion that went on prior to the game actually starting. There are three PBUs. If they are playing intelligently, they will have noticed from the beginning that this game has had a fairly large number of lurkers, and one of them will be chilling among them and doing their best to just scoot by. It's possible that two scum are lurking, but I would guess that the others are among the more active posters because having only a single active community member puts you in a bad position if that player gets lynched; the PBUs lose their ability to manipulate debate, and one of the previous lurkers trying to establish their voice afterward is obviously scummy play. I think that my logic for concluding that at least one of the four low-post players is a PBU is strategically sound. Ideally we would flush them out by getting the other three to start posting more analysis, but I think it's clear at this point that we're going to have to win this with a couple of low-content players amongst us, which means we need to figure out which of the lurkers is most likely our PBU. We have little to go on, but let's take a look at what's available: iamperfection: His posting day 1 was worthless. Since day 2 has begun, he's started to participate, albeit in a very low-key manner. I'd like to see more thought-out posts from him, but I'm leaning toward his being one of the good guys and just unsure of how to play as the game got going. BobTheLob: His posting day 1 was worthless. His posting day 2 is worthless. My read is entirely worthless, because he's not playing. In an environment where everyone was being super productive and he was just posting about how drunk he is, I'd say let Kwark pop him, but I feel like the odds are too good that he's actually just a really awful town player to take that risk. Blind-RawR: Also posting so little actual analysis that it's hard to make any kind of useful read. However, Hopeless1der's case against him is such a stretch that my conclusion is that it's almost certainly a clumsy attempt at provoking another mislynch and that Blind_RawR is thus probably town. Which leaves us with: Intact: Show nested quote +On June 29 2012 20:22 Intact wrote:
I think I saw this type of play in a previous mafia game. Not sure which one though. There were 2 mafia who argued agressivly towards eachother early on. This reminds me of that occasion. This is basically Intact's first move of the game: A vague reference to how maybe JH and Anacletus might both be scum, but presented in such a way that it's easy to distance yourself from later on. I acknowledge that I responded with agreement that this could be a useful bit of analysis if one of them flipped red, but knowing that both were town makes this look like an attempt to get discussion moving toward a mislynch. Show nested quote +On June 30 2012 10:29 Intact wrote:
I'm going to stand by my read as analectus being scum but I have also become very suspicious of promethelax. People may have been bandwagoning analectus but as soon as he got into lynching territory promethelax show up with a long thread pointing out someone else, thereby making some people switch vote. This causes divisions and tensions among the town which is exactly what the scum want. I lean more towards fencer just playing badly and promethelax trying to save his scum partner analectus. I really don't see anything suspicious about Promethelax's case against Fencer. I think I'm not alone when I say that he's around the top of the suspects list at the moment. What about Promethelax's analysis of Fencer's play seemed suspicious? This seems like an attempt to just sow dissent without any real logic behind it. And then comes this brilliant observation: Show nested quote +On June 30 2012 10:48 Intact wrote:
In addition, should we lynch analectus and he turns put to be mafia, it would make it fairly easy to point out the other mafia. And if he turns out to be townie it would be very easy to confirm some townies. Anacletus was, in fact, one of the good guys. We banned him. By what logic are we now able to confirm some townies? This post is just stupid, and to me it stinks of someone who is playing with the full information that a PBU has, and hasn't thought through the logic of the limited information environment that we town players are in enough to fake logical conclusions that sound like they were made by a townie. Summary: Four players (25% of the game population) are posting at barely-there levels, which leads me to conclude that at least one PBU is almost certainly hiding among them. An analysis of the few posts that they have made leads me to conclude that Intact is by far the most suspicious among them. The scumteam I currently have in mind is Intact, hopeless1der and Fencer710. Of the three, I feel the most strongly about Intact and hopeless1der; I feel like Fencer could conceivable be really bad and having a panicky reaction to being suspected. If anyone could help me analyze the way those three have interacted to argue either in favor of or against my hypothesis, I'd really appreciate the help.
Since my claim, he hasn't even tried to build up any more of a case on me, he's relying on the fact that his gambit was 100% guaranteed.
The last thing about Umlaut that is suspicious to me: Look at the day 1 votes
On July 01 2012 06:10 ghost_403 wrote:
Day 1 Final Vote Count:
Anacletus (7): BLinD-RawR, BobTheLob, Fencer710, Intact, iamperfection, Myles, Promethelax
Intact (1): Anacletus
Fencer710 (1): Hopeless1der
Hopeless1der (2): AmericanUmlaut, JingleHell
Not Voted: NrGmonk
Anacletus has been lynched Day 1. NrGmonk will be replaced for failing to vote.
Of the players that did NOT vote for Anacletus, two are alive. Me and Umlaut. I don't think all three scum would have voted for Anacletus. I'm of the impression that one of us is scum. I've made my claim as VT. I expect I have exhausted
@Promethelax, The reason I specifically wanted you to review my claim was that you've been getting a scummy read of me mainly from Jingle before his NK on Night1. I feel like you've had me as scum the longest, or at least were committed to it first when it was mainly based on my Day1 posting. Knowing that I was breadcrumbing (apparently meaningless things, but nevertheless...) and the first half of Day 1 was not my most productive posting, it may influence your read on me enough to move me into "not first" on your scum list.
Since Milton has been NK'd, I'd also like you to review this post:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=347856¤tpage=19#377
In your discussions with Jingle, you made note that we might be casting suspicion without repercussions due to the votes on Anacletus at the time, and it would be easier for us to "look less scummy if the other flips." Fencar/Miltonkram have since flipped town. I don't know if that makes me look more scummy or less scummy at this point, but the situation is different than the read you previously had and I'd like you to revisit it with the information we have now.
On July 08 2012 06:11 Keirathi wrote:I was roleblocked
...You gotta be fucking kidding me dude. My day is ruined. I wish someone would counter-claim this.
As a note on my breadcrumbing of things:
There wasn't really a purpose to me breadcrumbing things as I had no role, I was attempting to practice or something like that in the event I got a blue in another game. I'm likely to make myself look retarded, but man I'm desperate to do something to make people think twice about me. Going through my filter from the start of the game, if you take every capitalized letter (except from green text) I spell :
TITLE VANILLA TOWNIE AND YOU ARE AUF WIEDERSEHEN INITIATIVE HAIDEHP-->Nonsense from this point
The "auf wiedersehen" was a reference to Umlaut who I was going to try to get lynched for lurking if he didn't show up Day1.
He started posting before I finished, but I figured what the hell why not? To not look like a spammy retarded scummy player is why not, so kudos to me for being a tard and setting myself up for failure.
If I was scum, why breadcrumb like this instead of pretending to hide a blue claim to go back to later on? There is practically no merit to what I did, just the risk of looking stupid/scummy, of which I probably look both at the moment.
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EBWOP: Paragraph after Vote-Count quote
I expect I have exhausted Umlaut's filter without trying to make a scumslip out of everything he did, so I'd like to see what he claims before tunnelling him any more than I already have.
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I just thought of something I would like to mention: if Au and Prom are such global town reads, where's the benefit to the mafia to leave them alive? They've been two of the more active people, and have presented cases on nearly everyone.
I know thats a bit WIFOM, but its really, really fishy to me.
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On July 08 2012 14:12 Keirathi wrote:
I just thought of something I would like to mention: if Au and Prom are such global town reads, where's the benefit to the mafia to leave them alive? They've been two of the more active people, and have presented cases on nearly everyone.
I know thats a bit WIFOM, but its really, really fishy to me.
It's a reasonable point, actually, but what I look at the kills, Milton doesn't seem like such a crazy break from the PBUs' pattern.
Night 1: JingleHell - by far the best contributor to the conversation up to that point, also had more game experience than the rest of us.
Night 2: sciberbia, who had just subbed in, had more game experience than the rest of us and was contributing well.
Night 3: Miltoncram, who had just subbed in, had four previous games worth of experience, and was already posting reads and contributing well.
I was personally expecting Promethelax to be the next kill, for exactly the reason you said, but I could imagine two motivations for going after Milton instead:
- Milton had just posted a well-written case on iamperfection that we haven't discussed much more yet. The kill could be a defense of iamperfection, or (of course) an attempt to look like a defense and push a mislynch on iamperfection.
- I can't imagine I was the only person who say Promethelax as the most logical next target. Given the possibility that there's still a medic among us, going after him might have been seen as too big a risk of getting blocked.
The two combined actually make Milton a pretty good target for a night kill. He's less likely to be defended, we've been giving newly subbed-in players BotD, and Fencar after his resignation seemed actually pretty unlikely to have been a PBU, which made him probably the least likely mislynch candidate. In fact, if they have faith in Keirathi's work thus far, they may have even considered Promethelax and myself to be better chances at getting a mislynch than Milton.
Another possibility, which I consider less likely, is that Promethelax really is scum and has been playing brilliantly (obviously I have proof for my own part that I'm town). I would say that we should return to the possibility and give him a harder look if we are at a loss for better scum reads. Our priority for today, though, is to survive one more day, and that requires that we lynch the best scumread we have. At the moment, my opinion is that that is Hopeless1der -- not just because of my hammer trap; that was just the cherry on top of a delicious scumcake.
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EPT
