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On July 18 2012 13:09 tube wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2012 12:53 JingleHell wrote:On July 18 2012 12:47 tube wrote:On July 18 2012 12:39 JingleHell wrote:On July 18 2012 12:35 tube wrote:
I have no idea what you're talking about with this "me too" attitude.
And are you trying to say it's too easy or it's too quiet? Make up your mind. When someone makes few posts, and those few posts are also very scummy, that doesn't somehow give him a probable chance of being innocent. I'm saying too easy and too quiet are the same general thing here. He's an easy target. "It's quiet, too quiet" *Sudden huge influx of random plot villain A shows up to murder every fucking thing in sight*. When something looks too simple, too easy, or too obvious, sometimes it really is. As was obviously the case with... well, Obvious. But hey, let's go back to your logic. When someone posts next to nothing useful, and it's mostly obviously scummy, lynch that mofo. Who's cool with lynching tube on his own logic? Too easy and too quiet are definitely not the same thing. If the few posts he made didn't scream scum, then you would only be saying "too quiet", which doesn't implicate him in anything. How was that the case with Obvious? He made a good number of posts until his summary, and retrospectively some of them were helping town and some just looked plain scummy. Perfection, on the other hand, has only made posts that have not helped town in any way. So now all my posts are both useless and scummy? Mind going into further detail? I'm very specifically talking about "too easy" and "too quiet" as the movie/book lines they get used as, a cliched precursor to pure trouble. That's as a comparison to the plausible situation I see with someone asking for a vigi shot against perfection. He's such a simple, obvious sort of target that it makes SENSE to suggest it, and if there's a scum motive, it kills two birds with one stone. Obvious was easy to see as scum, and got lynched, and it turned out to have been too easy. Too good to be true. And saying the majority of your posts are useless and easily seen as scummy? Let's go back to yesterday, the posting you did before your sudden change of heart, and a bit of your posting since the attention was lifted off of you. You've been highly active, but not in a serious sort of way. Oh, wait, let me guess, we still don't have enough information, right? Because yesterday, that's why you weren't saying anything useful. Not enough information. Well now you want Iamperfection to die based on NO DAMN INFORMATION. And you're STILL ignoring my question about why your theoretical scum Jingle diverts attention off your theoretical townie you, and onto the (now) confirmed townie Obvious, when I could have just sat back and watched the chaos with MUCH less attention on me. And your entire reasoning to let him live for now is that he looks too scummy to be scum. Because that's much more reasonable than suggesting that he actually he is scum. Again, I and other users don't see that realistic probability that he's townie that you so easily seem to.
Now who's putting words in mouths? I've said over and over that I don't think he's townie. I'm pointing to a VERY plausible hypothetical situation that could come from Calgar's vigi suggestion. Simple. You pushing back is suspicious as all hell.
Obvious getting lynched was his own misplay, he didn't defend himself at all. Not exactly the town's fault for lynching someone who looked scummy. Your suggesting that perfection's case is the same is pretty out there, when perfection is much easier to see as scum now that Obvious flipped town.
Perfection only seems somewhat scummier based on Obvious flipping town. He's a fair read, and again, you're putting words in my mouth, ironically, to suggest I'm saying he isn't. All I've said is that it seems too easy, just like Obvious did, now that we know he was town. Same reason I'm trying to bury the hatchet with Hapa, sometimes it's too easy.
It's also very dumb of you to push the idea that I still hold no suspicions against anyone due to a lack of information when it's obvious I'm presenting my own analysis now that things have actually happened.
And if perfection's few, scummy posts are NO DAMN INFORMATION to you, what does it take for you to be convinced that someone's scum?
You're not presenting your own analysis, you're piggybacking other people's. Unless, of course, you're talking about the "analysis" of calling me scummy based on the strangest WIFOM imaginable because I suggested that Perfection might be too easy of a target.
Before, you had a problem with people not having enough information, because we were looking at you based on a few scummy posts. Now you want perfection dead for a few scummy posts. Make up your damn mind. Simple.
I'm going to bed. Someone else try to reason with this clown.
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I did make up my mind, when did I switch between the two stances.
Yeah nobody wants to argue with you, all you do is make personal attacks that you seem to think make your argument more convincing.
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Reminder that the deadline is in around 16hrs. Please send me your actions as soon as you have finalised them. This will give me time to write a killer Day Post 
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Due to some unforeseen circumstances I cannot be active for a few days so I require a replacement.
I apologize for this.
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Catching up for the night, posts incoming:
On July 18 2012 11:02 JingleHell wrote:
Hapa, (yes, I'm about to ask your opinion, maybe the two of us will do better working together, since we operate from different angles), how do you feel about this notion, pure hypothetical: Scum tube, finally gets people off his case, sees Jingle as "aggressive townie", jumps on Obvious to try and ride the bandwagon.
My primary reason for thinking this is plausible, tube was too happy to jump behind me, but once the heat on him dies down, and people start remembering "he made an effort", his posting starts regressing mostly.
Thoughts?
Its plausible, but I don't find it likely. For one, Tube's "post quality" doesn't deteriorate significantly, and it's a pretty natural reaction to post a bit carefree when the suspicion is shifted off of you. I devoted a few posts to establishing his innocence as well, so I think any shifts in posting style are explainable.
This seems like a case of one townie willing to jump behind a strong personality of another likely-townie.
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On July 18 2012 11:08 calgar wrote:
@vigilante – I believe our next lynch has a high likelihood of being iamperfection. A number of people currently consider him the best choice now. It doesn’t look like he is bothered to respond to accusations or post much in general. I strongly advise to (carefully) consider a hit on him to save us a day, imo. Then on to the bigger fish.
It's only justifiable for vigi (if we haveone) to shoot someone if there's a really strong case against them. I'm not a fan of N1 vigi kills in general because of the relatively little information we have.
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On July 18 2012 12:13 tube wrote:
You just stated all the consequences of vigi shooting a townie, which are inherent and already known to everyone.
However, the much more likely scenario is that he actually is mafia and should therefore be taken out as early as possible.
If you disagree with all of Mufaa's, Hapa's, and calgar's cases against him, then you should explain where the reasonable doubt comes from, because "it's too easy" doesn't really convince anyone.
I never posted a case on iamperfection. I voted for YourHarry, and switched my vote when Calgar tried to lobby votes to prevent the Obvious.660 lynch by trying to vote for iamperfection.
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On July 18 2012 07:31 Probulous wrote:Vote Count Obvious.660 (6): YourHarry, JingleHell, iamperfection, tube, Evulrabbitz, YourHarry, Fulla Tube (2): JingleHell, Obvious.660, YourHarry, drwiggl3s, YourHarry (0): JingleHell, Hapahauli, calgarFulla (1): Hopeless1der iamperfection (3): calgar, Mufaa, Hapahauli, calgar JingleHell (0): YourHarryObvious.660 set to be lynched
Sooo here's the votelist.
Let's break down the voting actions:
I have limited time right now, so I'll break down the other non-Obvious.660 votes later today. DO NOT use this as an excuse to tunnel suspicion on only these people - make sure you read the filters of all the other players (including me) before casting votes.
Voted for Obvious:
YourHarry - Votes Obvious early (little reasoning), then votes JingleHell (quickly retracts), then revotes Obvious.
JingleHell - Throws his votes/suspicion around several players, then settles on Obvious for most of D1
iamperfection - FOS on Calgar/YourHarry, then votes Obvious after the "list" post
Tube - Spends most of D1 defending himself, then votes Obvious midway into D1
EvulRabbitz - Few posts/no FOS's, then votes Obvious for his vote on Tube
Fulla - few posts, casts suspicion on Tube/Obvious, then votes Obvious close to the deadline
On voting patterns alone, YourHarry and Evul stick out the most.
Evul's filter consists of contentless-posts, then votes for Obvious.660. He hasn't casted a single FOS all game and has been pretty anti-discussion overall. Given that he just requested a replacement, I'm not sure if this is due to scum-motivated lurkiness (as the town lynches its own members) or simple inactivity.
YourHarry's quick voteswitch to JingleHell looks REALLY suspicious to me - especially the content of his voteswitch post. Pay attention to his changing attitude/reasoning towards Jingle throughout the post.
On July 18 2012 02:56 YourHarry wrote:If you think this, then uh-oh, you would be even more suspicious of me. I forgot to mention that when 3 people suddenly stacked on Obvious.660, I had my vote on him also, which made 4 votes. 3 sudden votes in the course of one hour, when Obvious.660 made it clear that he won't be able to comeback to defend himself, makes the voters scummy. And I - of course being town- can't help but suspect that scums are pushing Obvious.660 mislynch and then blame me (the first person to accuse Obvious.660 with little reason) for the mislynch. And I am not exactly accusing Jingle for not being logical. I find it suspicious that Jingle is quickly dismissing your defense of Obvious.660 though. So if I am right and some of the scums are quickly targeting Obvious.660, their motivation could be two fold. Obviously to mislynch Obvious.660. And to distract the town from suspecting one of the scums. Who was being accused at the time? Tube. FOS Tube and Jingle. I am OK with either lynch. Maybe we should go with Tube since Jingle has history with some of the players here, which would hopefully make it easier for townies to read if he is mafia indeed. ##Unvote##Vote tube
This looks sooooo scummy. First he says that he's suspicious of Jingle for dismissing my defense of Obvious, then he fingerpoints at Tube, then he removes his vote from Jingle (WAT!??!?!).
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There have been posts that havemade me greatly question the motivation of some of the players.
On July 18 2012 11:16 JingleHell wrote:
As it is, if he doesn't get NKed, we have almost 3 full days before deadline to try and force him to defend himself.
If, by then, he hasn't, he deserves what he gets. ?
What is your goal jingle? Do you want to win or do you want to be just justfied in your reasoning for when you get lynches. What purpose does this comment make? Well if perfection flips town he deserved it so dont look at me it was his fault not mine. Our goal is to win not to look good in our reasoning. It dosent matter if your reasoning is solid it has to be right.
On July 16 2012 12:49 Hopeless1der wrote:
I don't care if you have a scummy meta, SCUMMY PLAY DOES NOT HELP TOWN! If I find your play scummy, I'm going to read you as scum and push for your lynch.
I brought this up before but its worth revisiting. The mafia know what they and their other members are doing. When you set up these policies that say look thig guy is lurking thats scummy so he must be scum you give the mafia the grounds to rig the game. Let kill this guy because hes lurking is exactly what they want. Look past the obvious of the obvious killing what did i gain from it which would improve my scum position. There seems to be a lot less heat on people who were will nilly with their votes than their is on me who made a read and stuck with it.
Lets take it further. When i was scum in http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=347856&user=149300 as a mafia member i felt more pressure to post so what came out was mostly fluff and and just trying to be confusing by twisting peoples logic. Our strategy for that game was that i would basically lurk while the other two would lead the discussion and the charge. In my posts i was wishy washy and non commital to make the apperance of just a bad newbie. In this game i took a definite stand and have not been wishy washy i made clear my fos and was clear on why i voted and didnt backtrack. If i knew obvious was not town why would i put myself in such a precarious position i could have just let others lead the charge and in fact i was the first person to call out obvious when i made that stupid list.
Now if weather or not you believe me where do we stand who do we go after if im town. These are some of th posts that stuck out to me.
On July 18 2012 06:13 Fulla wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2012 20:06 Obvious.660 wrote:
There aren't enough fingers to go around at this point. I will share a few thoughts before I sleep, as I may not make it back in time for any further analysis. Seriously, the town play needs to improve overall or we're going to mislynch tonight. It's awful that I am reading more scum than town.
> tube still has my vote. Don't just look at the filter, it's better to read the actual thread when looking at him. Very few quotes to address the accusations against him in his responses will make analysis of tube troublesome without going through unfiltered.
> YourHarry: Highly, highly suspicious of this one. Not because he voted for me, but because of HOW IT WAS DONE.
> JingleHell is suspicious to me for his constant attacks on what words are chosen: "Wait and see" -- "Under the bus" conversations, where intent was pretty clear and he chose to always take it in the most negative context possible. He's railed on Calgar and me fairly hard.
> Hopeless1der makes a safe vote against the lurking Fulla. Wanted to know about no-lynch for whatever reason. Leaning scum here.
> Fulla seems to be lurking hard. Brings up a point of inquiry for some irrelevant statistic and probably goes to sleep.
> iamperfection read my post but clearly didn't follow the conversation in entirety. Points a few fingers, nothing overly suspicious. I would call the posting history semi-engaging but barely active. Leaning scum here.
> Calgar: My gut tells me town.
> Mufaa: Two posts. One starts analysis with the promise of more. The extra analysis is nowhere to be found. However, his line of reasoning regarding JingleHell seems to be spot on so far today.
> drwiggl3s: No scummy feelings here, yet.
> Evulrabbitz: Lurky, but lives in Sweden. 7 hours ahead of EST, if my just-before-sleep math is any good. I'm probably off by an hour. Look for something from Evul in the very near future, well before vote time.
> Hapahauli: Should be weighing in today. I have no strong feelings either way about his contributed play.
If you get nothing else out of this, town members need to take a good look at their individual contributions and ask themselves if they've done everything they can today to work towards a good day one lynch. The first thing that springs to mind is IF this is the obvious thing scum do, why would he post this? Why do people say this a useless worthless post? He gives clear reasonable arguments on each person. They are thought out and logical. yet: Show nested quote +On July 17 2012 22:36 iamperfection wrote:
Isnt posting meaningless lists about every one in the game a way that mafia try to do to buy town cred. By being non commital you are trying to keep you options open so nothing can be used against you later. In fact the first guide that is posted in this thread states that what you just did is something scum do to try and hide. Why would a townie try and do something like that. I would say you are reading a diffrent section of the guide.
## Vote Obvious.660 I thought this was pretty committed? According to him: YourHarry, Hopeless1der and iamperfection are the 3 scum.
Word like leaning scum or my gut tells me is not being commital. This post appears to me to be a way in order to buy town cred because you are a mafia member and know that obvious is going to flip town so you try to come across as oh i dont know this isnt my idead and then vote for him anyways.
On July 18 2012 07:10 Fulla wrote:Where the hell is obvious? Sigh.. It seems it's all down to me, I hate it when this happens. Let obvious be lynched or vote tube and force a no lynch. Show nested quote +On July 18 2012 06:16 JingleHell wrote:
Fulla, when he made that post, he was leaving his vote on tube, and also called me suspicious. Does that make us the fourth and fifth scum in that list of three you're accrediting to him?
Good point, I overlooked that. Let's see what he flips then. ## Vote Obvious.660
And this once again this isnt my idead you guys came up with the point not me so non commital becasue he dosent want the obvious lynch to come back on him.
I also fully believe that at least one mafia member is probally talking a lot. When mafia have a good voice in town they can help steer the talk in a way that benfits them. My goal for the rest of the day is to find the mafia member that is being very active and talking a lot. If i find something i will post before the deadline.
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Iamperfection: Clearly, I want to win. However, we don't win by making votes that aren't justified, so I'm unsure how the facets of your question are supposed to be mutually exclusive.
Basically, I'm saying that it's too scary of a gamble to be asking a Vigi to shoot you now, because we have no evidence to work with, and if we pressure you to join the party, we might have evidence to work with one way or another.
Pointing to your own meta is nothing but a bad joke.
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@iamperfection, you have a lot of suspicion on you right now. I suggest defending yourself and addressing people's concerns instead of chainsaw defending yourself by pointing out 3 different people (Fulla, Jingle, and a mystery 3rd "active mafia").
Secondly, what's the point of your experience as mafia in a past game? Its useless to speculate what mafia will do based on completely seperate player pools. Moreover, you cast suspicion on Jingle (who me and Calgar have strong townie reads on), and suggest that you believe there's an active mafia based on the events of completely different players!!!
Lastly, what's with your language? You're suspicious of two players, and you don't even cast an FOS or take any strong stances. What are you afraid of - if you're suspicious, make it clear instead of saying something wishy-washy like "There have been posts that havemade me greatly question the motivation of some of the players."
FOS iamperfection
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Just got into work and it's looking like its gonna be a shitty day. Sorry, won't get much posted until day post I think. Assuming I make it through, I will answer any questions addressed to me upon my return.
One thing though that's bothering me: Fulla, are you going to answer my question?
On July 17 2012 09:00 Hopeless1der wrote:
Fulla it took over 24 hours from your first post to your second. Any comment beyond I'm new? Is this your normal posting habits or can we expect more from you?
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Just As well I Love EvulRabbitz, since he seems a bit off. Could just be A blue again. Loved his Great job As detective Really.
Obviously, I'm all for forcing Perfection to be active during the day today, how do you guys feel about frontloading a few votes on him while we do our discussion?
I'm still a bit nervous about YourHarry, and frankly, as much as there's going to be people calling this scummy, I still feel it's wise to give a slight BOTD to perfection, just because he really does seem too easy to lynch. A hypothetical townie perfection would just be the world's easiest mislynch to feed us.
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On July 18 2012 23:39 Hapahauli wrote:
@iamperfection, you have a lot of suspicion on you right now. I suggest defending yourself and addressing people's concerns instead of chainsaw defending yourself by pointing out 3 different people (Fulla, Jingle, and a mystery 3rd "active mafia").
Secondly, what's the point of your experience as mafia in a past game? Its useless to speculate what mafia will do based on completely seperate player pools. Moreover, you cast suspicion on Jingle (who me and Calgar have strong townie reads on), and suggest that you believe there's an active mafia based on the events of completely different players!!!
Lastly, what's with your language? You're suspicious of two players, and you don't even cast an FOS or take any strong stances. What are you afraid of - if you're suspicious, make it clear instead of saying something wishy-washy like "There have been posts that havemade me greatly question the motivation of some of the players."
FOS iamperfection
So what are you suggesting that there isnt an active mafia member that anyone that does some lurking can and is mafia. Guess what a mafia member wants to appears as a townie at all costs from the early on the who population of the thread have basically stated that lurking is bad it is only natural to think that there is a mafia member that is active.
Also dont twist my words i never said that i was supicious of jingle and hopeless i said i question on what they were trying to accomplish. I feel like their goal was to appear to the mafia community that "im a good player my logic will be sound if i lynch some one and they are a townie it must be their fault for being a bad townie".
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On July 18 2012 23:39 Hapahauli wrote:
@iamperfection, you have a lot of suspicion on you right now. I suggest defending yourself and addressing people's concerns instead of chainsaw defending yourself by pointing out 3 different people (Fulla, Jingle, and a mystery 3rd "active mafia").
Secondly, what's the point of your experience as mafia in a past game? Its useless to speculate what mafia will do based on completely seperate player pools. Moreover, you cast suspicion on Jingle (who me and Calgar have strong townie reads on), and suggest that you believe there's an active mafia based on the events of completely different players!!!
Lastly, what's with your language? You're suspicious of two players, and you don't even cast an FOS or take any strong stances. What are you afraid of - if you're suspicious, make it clear instead of saying something wishy-washy like "There have been posts that havemade me greatly question the motivation of some of the players."
FOS iamperfection
Also i thik it was pretty clear that fulla was my main target why would you make such a big deal about nothing.
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I'm not suggesting there isn't an active mafia - I'm suggesting that it's stupid to assume so. You decry Hopeless1der's "policy talk," then turn around and set a policy of "THERE MUST BE ACTIVE MAFIA."
What do you mean you weren't suspicious of Jingle? What else is the purpose of this then?
On July 18 2012 22:50 iamperfection wrote: There have been posts that havemade me greatly question the motivation of some of the players. Show nested quote +On July 18 2012 11:16 JingleHell wrote:
As it is, if he doesn't get NKed, we have almost 3 full days before deadline to try and force him to defend himself.
If, by then, he hasn't, he deserves what he gets. ? What is your goal jingle? Do you want to win or do you want to be just justfied in your reasoning for when you get lynches. What purpose does this comment make? Well if perfection flips town he deserved it so dont look at me it was his fault not mine. Our goal is to win not to look good in our reasoning. It dosent matter if your reasoning is solid it has to be right.
Dunno about others, but this reads as "I'm suspicious of Jingle."
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I've actually been told in postgame that GGing someone who gets themselves mislynched looks like post-lynch guilt, and potentially scummy, as getting mislynched is frequently a sign of anything BUT a GG.
So yes, if a Townie gets themselves killed, I do think it's their own fault. This is not scummy, this is a fact.
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At least if you overdo it.
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On July 19 2012 00:04 JingleHell wrote:
I've actually been told in postgame that GGing someone who gets themselves mislynched looks like post-lynch guilt, and potentially scummy, as getting mislynched is frequently a sign of anything BUT a GG.
So yes, if a Townie gets themselves killed, I do think it's their own fault. This is not scummy, this is a fact.
i dont understand the first line? GGing talking about saying good game to someone after they get killed?
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EPT
