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Newbie Mini Mafia XXI - Page 27

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tube
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
United States1475 Posts
July 17 2012 23:34 GMT
#521
Well that sucks.
And yeah the fact that he didn't post a single thing between his summary post and his lynch doesn't really help. Regarding iamperfection, I agreed without saying so that he really was the next best choice.
Two in harmony surpasses one in perfection.
JingleHell
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States11308 Posts
July 17 2012 23:37 GMT
#522
On July 18 2012 08:29 Hapahauli wrote:
Fuck. GG Obvious.660, wish I could've done more to save ya.

@ Jingle - well if he claimed vet, he would've survived, no? It also confirms a townie and doesn't waste a lynch.

@ Town - Balls.

Fortunately we should be able to get some information from the bandwagon. I'll be looking through vote patterns and rereading filters tonight. In the mean time, make sure you post your reads before the end of the night!! I'll try to post mine in a couple of hours - we don't want anyone dying from the mafia night kill without providing any information.


I wouldn't count someone claiming vet as confirmed townie unless they actually survived an attack. That's like claiming VT, with the exception that if they're telling the truth, it means scum won't waste an NK on them, and the only ways to confirm it are to have a Vigi shoot them or have a DT investigate them.

I can't say GG, myself, when, even if we assume that 100% of the scum voted for him, which we have no way of knowing for sure, he still seemed scummy to enough townies to be in serious danger without scum voting on him.
YourHarry
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1152 Posts
July 17 2012 23:45 GMT
#523
Of course he should have claimed. Though claiming may or may not have saved him, since this is semi-open set up. I am probably going to guess that he would have lived.

On the positive side. I AM POSITIVE THAT FULLA IS TOWN.
Never!
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
July 17 2012 23:45 GMT
#524
On July 18 2012 08:37 JingleHell wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 18 2012 08:29 Hapahauli wrote:
Fuck. GG Obvious.660, wish I could've done more to save ya.

@ Jingle - well if he claimed vet, he would've survived, no? It also confirms a townie and doesn't waste a lynch.

@ Town - Balls.

Fortunately we should be able to get some information from the bandwagon. I'll be looking through vote patterns and rereading filters tonight. In the mean time, make sure you post your reads before the end of the night!! I'll try to post mine in a couple of hours - we don't want anyone dying from the mafia night kill without providing any information.


I wouldn't count someone claiming vet as confirmed townie unless they actually survived an attack. That's like claiming VT, with the exception that if they're telling the truth, it means scum won't waste an NK on them, and the only ways to confirm it are to have a Vigi shoot them or have a DT investigate them.

I can't say GG, myself, when, even if we assume that 100% of the scum voted for him, which we have no way of knowing for sure, he still seemed scummy to enough townies to be in serious danger without scum voting on him.


I'm by no means suggesting that all the scum voted for Obvious.660. However, I'd be pretty damn surprised if no scum voted for him, given the extremely strong bandwagon in the second half of D1. A bandwagon like that doesn't get started without some mafia cooperation.

As for the vet stuff, I'm no expert on role-claiming logic, so meh.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
July 17 2012 23:48 GMT
#525
Content notwithstanding, the following players are still on a 1 page filter:
(Post count started from Day 1 post)

Iamperfection: 3 posts
Fulla: 5 posts
Mufaa: 5 posts
drwiggl3s: 14 posts
Evulrabbitz: 7 posts

Players from above who voted for Obvious.660:
Iamperfection
Evulrabbitz
Fulla

I'll be gone for a bit. Going to look into iamperfection when I return, because he looks scummiest of the players listed there.
YourHarry
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1152 Posts
July 17 2012 23:48 GMT
#526
And, I want you guys to be convinced that if tube is town, so am I.

Never!
JingleHell
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States11308 Posts
July 17 2012 23:49 GMT
#527
Oh I agree that some of the scum were most likely involved, but I'll have to wait on analysis till later, and I'm liable to save any strong conclusions until shortly before the day post.
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
July 17 2012 23:49 GMT
#528
On July 18 2012 08:45 YourHarry wrote:
Of course he should have claimed. Though claiming may or may not have saved him, since this is semi-open set up. I am probably going to guess that he would have lived.

On the positive side. I AM POSITIVE THAT FULLA IS TOWN.


Explain? Him showing up near the deadline to pile on Obvious.660 didn't look good to me. Hell, look at his last post:

On July 18 2012 07:10 Fulla wrote:
Where the hell is obvious? Sigh.. It seems it's all down to me, I hate it when this happens.

Let obvious be lynched or vote tube and force a no lynch.

Show nested quote +
On July 18 2012 06:16 JingleHell wrote:
Fulla, when he made that post, he was leaving his vote on tube, and also called me suspicious. Does that make us the fourth and fifth scum in that list of three you're accrediting to him?



Good point, I overlooked that.

Let's see what he flips then.

## Vote Obvious.660


He doesn't even understand the voting situation - his vote wouldn't have mattered, yet he plays it up like a big deal. In addition, he doesn't even know this is plurality lynch. This looks like a mafia member who joins bandwagons (look at his suspicion on Tube in his 2nd post) and doesn't even bother to read the thread, knowing all he has to do is stay friendly and cast suspicion.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
July 17 2012 23:52 GMT
#529
@ YourHarry - I hope you have a really really good reason for defending Fulla. As it stands, you're still my #1 read, and this sounds like you're trying to protect a scumbuddy.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
YourHarry
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1152 Posts
July 17 2012 23:55 GMT
#530
On July 18 2012 07:10 Fulla wrote:
Where the hell is obvious? Sigh.. It seems it's all down to me, I hate it when this happens.

Let obvious be lynched or vote tube and force a no lynch.

Show nested quote +
On July 18 2012 06:16 JingleHell wrote:
Fulla, when he made that post, he was leaving his vote on tube, and also called me suspicious. Does that make us the fourth and fifth scum in that list of three you're accrediting to him?



Good point, I overlooked that.

Let's see what he flips then.

## Vote Obvious.660


This vote was made 50 minutes before the deadline. At this time, Obvious.660 had 6 votes vs. iamperfection's 3 votes. Fulla could have voted on someone else or not voted and the Obvious.660 lynch was VERY IMMINENT. There is no way scum Fulla would have risked looking suspicious knowing that he will be a part of a mislynch that was going to happen ANYWAY.
Never!
Mufaa
Profile Joined October 2010
219 Posts
July 17 2012 23:56 GMT
#531
@ Jingle & Calgar- I don't feel I misspoke. It doesn't completely negate the role while getting lynched completely negates the role. If he claims we gain much more info either way than him just dying. Yes, ideally he wouldn't claim and could defend himself out of a lynch. However, since he wasn't here, if he claim with 2hours or so until the deadline, that reveals a lot of info. If he still gets lynched we have much more discussion about why he was either lying and we can see who switched and who didn't (logically the Mafia would want him to remain lynched). If he doesn't get lynched it's a lot more complicated, but not worth discussing really at this point since it can't happen.

Main point is, even if the roleclaim didn't save him it would have helped the town.
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
July 18 2012 00:03 GMT
#532
On July 18 2012 08:55 YourHarry wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 18 2012 07:10 Fulla wrote:
Where the hell is obvious? Sigh.. It seems it's all down to me, I hate it when this happens.

Let obvious be lynched or vote tube and force a no lynch.

On July 18 2012 06:16 JingleHell wrote:
Fulla, when he made that post, he was leaving his vote on tube, and also called me suspicious. Does that make us the fourth and fifth scum in that list of three you're accrediting to him?



Good point, I overlooked that.

Let's see what he flips then.

## Vote Obvious.660


This vote was made 50 minutes before the deadline. At this time, Obvious.660 had 6 votes vs. iamperfection's 3 votes. Fulla could have voted on someone else or not voted and the Obvious.660 lynch was VERY IMMINENT. There is no way scum Fulla would have risked looking suspicious knowing that he will be a part of a mislynch that was going to happen ANYWAY.


A single vote isn't enough to clear a lurking player (with 4 posts) that shows up right before the lynch deadline. Moreover, what about the content of his post? He overplays the importance of his post ("Sigh... it seems it's all down to me..." WAT) and clearly demonstrated that he's not keeping up with the thread and votecount. Hell, he doesn't even know the game is plurality lynch before voting.

For all I know, this sudden "I'M POSITIVE HE'S TOWNIE" stuff could've been a plan between the two of you in Mafia QT.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
YourHarry
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1152 Posts
July 18 2012 00:09 GMT
#533
On July 18 2012 09:03 Hapahauli wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 18 2012 08:55 YourHarry wrote:
On July 18 2012 07:10 Fulla wrote:
Where the hell is obvious? Sigh.. It seems it's all down to me, I hate it when this happens.

Let obvious be lynched or vote tube and force a no lynch.

On July 18 2012 06:16 JingleHell wrote:
Fulla, when he made that post, he was leaving his vote on tube, and also called me suspicious. Does that make us the fourth and fifth scum in that list of three you're accrediting to him?



Good point, I overlooked that.

Let's see what he flips then.

## Vote Obvious.660


This vote was made 50 minutes before the deadline. At this time, Obvious.660 had 6 votes vs. iamperfection's 3 votes. Fulla could have voted on someone else or not voted and the Obvious.660 lynch was VERY IMMINENT. There is no way scum Fulla would have risked looking suspicious knowing that he will be a part of a mislynch that was going to happen ANYWAY.


A single vote isn't enough to clear a lurking player (with 4 posts) that shows up right before the lynch deadline. Moreover, what about the content of his post? He overplays the importance of his post ("Sigh... it seems it's all down to me..." WAT) and clearly demonstrated that he's not keeping up with the thread and votecount. Hell, he doesn't even know the game is plurality lynch before voting.

For all I know, this sudden "I'M POSITIVE HE'S TOWNIE" stuff could've been a plan between the two of you in Mafia QT.


Lurking is not excusable behavior for TOWN AND SCUM. And in the absence of strong scum/town read, it may be OK to start a bandwagon against a lurking player. But when a player is obviously townie (and in my opinion, Fulla is obv townie), deciding to lynch a lurking townie may not be the best play for town. Hopefully he would start posting more.
Never!
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
July 18 2012 00:16 GMT
#534
On July 18 2012 09:09 YourHarry wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 18 2012 09:03 Hapahauli wrote:
On July 18 2012 08:55 YourHarry wrote:
On July 18 2012 07:10 Fulla wrote:
Where the hell is obvious? Sigh.. It seems it's all down to me, I hate it when this happens.

Let obvious be lynched or vote tube and force a no lynch.

On July 18 2012 06:16 JingleHell wrote:
Fulla, when he made that post, he was leaving his vote on tube, and also called me suspicious. Does that make us the fourth and fifth scum in that list of three you're accrediting to him?



Good point, I overlooked that.

Let's see what he flips then.

## Vote Obvious.660


This vote was made 50 minutes before the deadline. At this time, Obvious.660 had 6 votes vs. iamperfection's 3 votes. Fulla could have voted on someone else or not voted and the Obvious.660 lynch was VERY IMMINENT. There is no way scum Fulla would have risked looking suspicious knowing that he will be a part of a mislynch that was going to happen ANYWAY.


A single vote isn't enough to clear a lurking player (with 4 posts) that shows up right before the lynch deadline. Moreover, what about the content of his post? He overplays the importance of his post ("Sigh... it seems it's all down to me..." WAT) and clearly demonstrated that he's not keeping up with the thread and votecount. Hell, he doesn't even know the game is plurality lynch before voting.

For all I know, this sudden "I'M POSITIVE HE'S TOWNIE" stuff could've been a plan between the two of you in Mafia QT.


Lurking is not excusable behavior for TOWN AND SCUM. And in the absence of strong scum/town read, it may be OK to start a bandwagon against a lurking player. But when a player is obviously townie (and in my opinion, Fulla is obv townie), deciding to lynch a lurking townie may not be the best play for town. Hopefully he would start posting more.


But WHYYYYY is he so obviously townie? You only list his vote as your reasoning. Do you think this outweighs his low post count, lurking, showing up right before the deadline, bandwagoning (against Tube and Obvious.660) AND misrepresenting the importance of his vote?

Is there something I'm missing here?
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
YourHarry
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1152 Posts
July 18 2012 00:20 GMT
#535
Nope, it's just the voting. I understand that lurking is generally a scum tell but towns also lurk too. I do not like people lurking, of course, but that does not mean he's scum. And lurking, low post count, and showing up right before the deadline IS sort of same thing. The fact that he voted for town, which should have been clear to him if he were scum, when his vote did not matter makes him strong town. Personally, this kind of evidence is more reliable than evidence one can "manufacture" from analyzing people's posts, partially because scums know what kind of things tend to be deemed scummy and can engineer their posts to look town.
Never!
YourHarry
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1152 Posts
July 18 2012 00:51 GMT
#536
I retract my claim that Fulla is definitely town. It seems, as Hapha pointed out, that he didn't know this was plurality lynch, in which case scum Fulla could have wanted the mislynch - he was just wrong in thinking that his vote made the difference.

I still think he's probably town because he didn't know the rules, because scum Fulla would have access to QT. And while it is true that this thread contains at least two posts that discuss the rules of plurality lynch, it is much easier to accept non-active townie missing this amidst hundreds of posts. It is also possible that scum Fulla pretended to not know about plurality lynch. And although scums sometimes feign ignorance, in this specific case, I don't see much benefit in faking not knowing about the rules of the lynch - especially coming from a player that has been accuse of not being active and not reading the thread.
Never!
iamperfection
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9643 Posts
July 18 2012 01:32 GMT
#537
Some food for thought while we enter the terrors that are the night. Why would i knowingly put myself under so much heat. When i Voted for obvious their was one exactly one vote for him. If i was mafia i could posted lip service comments to try and hid but i diddnt i put a claim out there and i think its going to lead to some information. The bandwagon on obvious happened after me.


The mafia have the information advantage and if they wanted to risk it they could have not voted for obvious at all if they so desired. I will be able to work on this tommorow morning and i will post before the deadline what i think happened.


http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=406168&currentpage=78#1551
YourHarry
Profile Joined September 2010
United States1152 Posts
July 18 2012 01:38 GMT
#538
On July 18 2012 10:32 iamperfection wrote:
Some food for thought while we enter the terrors that are the night. Why would i knowingly put myself under so much heat. When i Voted for obvious their was one exactly one vote for him. If i was mafia i could posted lip service comments to try and hid but i diddnt i put a claim out there and i think its going to lead to some information. The bandwagon on obvious happened after me.


The mafia have the information advantage and if they wanted to risk it they could have not voted for obvious at all if they so desired. I will be able to work on this tommorow morning and i will post before the deadline what i think happened.




You can say this for everyone who have voted for Obvious.660.

From scum's perspective, it is a choice between not wanting to look scummy by avoiding to contribute to a mislynch a player they know is town vs. putting their voting power in effect in order to favor a mislynch over a scum lynch.
Never!
JingleHell
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States11308 Posts
July 18 2012 02:02 GMT
#539
Hapa, (yes, I'm about to ask your opinion, maybe the two of us will do better working together, since we operate from different angles), how do you feel about this notion, pure hypothetical: Scum tube, finally gets people off his case, sees Jingle as "aggressive townie", jumps on Obvious to try and ride the bandwagon.

My primary reason for thinking this is plausible, tube was too happy to jump behind me, but once the heat on him dies down, and people start remembering "he made an effort", his posting starts regressing mostly.

Thoughts?
JingleHell
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States11308 Posts
July 18 2012 02:04 GMT
#540
And yes, I've been operating from the assumption that "The whole damn town coached tube", but I'm just trying to go back over people in light of the Obvious flip, and he was the first one I thought of.
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