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annul
United States2841 Posts
in scenario 2, yes this is true. in scenario 3, 1. fuck me; 2. this won't happen. i also think the "1 blue > 2 green" is flawed -- you cannot assume it will be extra greens who get night killed. it is more than probable to include at least 1 other blue (if LSB is blue himself). so you trade 1 blue 1 green for 1 blue? assume there are 6 mafia. 24 town. assume there are 10 blues. 1-((14/24)*(13/23)) = 67.03% chance to kill at least 1 blue using purely RNG kills. | ||
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deconduo
Ireland4122 Posts
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annul
United States2841 Posts
also means his defense to my attack was pretty horrible | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On December 29 2010 05:03 annul wrote: then im wrong, and so are all the people who see what i see. also means his defense to my attack was pretty horrible More like you choose to pretend my responses aren't their and perpetuate a dumb argument. | ||
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Pandain
United States12989 Posts
A journey into... Summary: LSB is either vigi or Scum. I'm leaning towards scum. I think there's a 90% chance he is scum, and even if we lose a vigi, it's not like its game over. If he was a DT I would rethink it, but plainly I think I'm confident enough to lynch him despite his blue claim. From his very early blue claim to his pms with me, LSB has been playing very scummy and out of his norm. From super defensiveness and counter aggresion on Annul, to nitpicking at small details when debating, and making contradictions left and right, I feel confident that LSB is scum. Spam: + Show Spoiler + On December 27 2010 10:38 LSB wrote: Nvm, doesn't seem like there are mayoral elections On December 27 2010 10:37 LSB wrote: If there are mayoral elections, will you help me make my campaign poster? On December 27 2010 10:35 LSB wrote: I say we lynch ~OpZ~ because his town play and mafia play is indistinguishable. On December 27 2010 10:27 LSB wrote: Flamwheel/Incog forgot to send me who my teammates were, can you PM me them? Thanks! On December 27 2010 11:11 LSB wrote: + Show Spoiler + I wanted to wait for the day post before posting this but w/e All right, in many games there was an uneventful first day. Lets not make this one of those games. A few things to talk about:
Inactives: A big problem in every mafia game is inactivity. I don't want another drag_ being able to squeak by with barely any posts. We should immediately show it is not okay to be inactive. Inactive players hurt the town as they waste lynches down the road as the town will need to try to separate the mafia from the inactives. We should therefore push to lynch an inactive day one. This will force the assassins to discuss and not be able to turtle, increasing the chance they will slip up. The key is that we have to make sure the town knows it is not okay to just simply sit back and not do anything. This way, hopefully everyone will be active and we won't need to lynch an inactive. Plan Firstly. DO NOT CLAIM DO NOT CLAIM Good now that we got that out of the way, some other ideas. Generic Blue Activity plan One plan that would work is to use the blue roles to promote activity in the town. The DTs should check the inactive people and the lurkers, as it is incredibly difficult if not impossible to tell the difference between a bored townie and a lurking mafia. The Medics should protect active players, this way the mafia won't be able to take out the people who are contributing the most to town, so people won't be scared of trying to put forth their opinions. Framer Issue: Framers are much better put to use framing the important townies. So any attempt by the mafia for framing the inactives would be a waste. First real post. I do like this post, for the most part. Gives the traditional opening advice speech thing, and a good overalll post. However, I do want to nitpick a bit at the content of this post. Yes, we don't want inactives. But there's a different between lynching the lurkers and lynching the inactives. Furthormore, having DT's check those people as well, and medics protect active people, just makes it far too easy for mafia to actually manipulate town BY being active. Perhaps he didn't clarify that he wanted to lynch lurkers, but i have a neutral read on this. On December 27 2010 11:18 LSB wrote: Lets say Coagulation tells Doctor H that he is the medic. That's a claim Let's not do that this game k On December 27 2010 11:25 LSB wrote: Of course. There's a few cases where claiming is okay. 1) You are about to be lynched. Don't expect this to save you, but it would be nice to tell the town what happens 2) DT checks you. The DT then messages you and say that "I know your role is [insert green/blue role here]. This is mainly used when the DT finds a red, and also finds a green. The green becomes the "DT Mouth" and tells the Town what the DT found out. 3) The Medic successfully protects you. Assuming that it wasn't a hit from the mad hatter, if the medic protects someone, that person probably isn't mafia. 4) The town thinks of some super awesome plan. The issue is when blues jump the gun and start claiming before they confirmed someone. That's a great way to get our blues sniped. (See Salem Mafia. For a short summary, look at the article in the Pony Express) I like this post, don't really have anything bad with this. On December 27 2010 11:27 LSB wrote: Check out Pokemafia. Basically the entire mafia team, except for DCXLIV and Kavdragon posted once a day, and made sure they voted. That's what lurking is. gives info. On December 27 2010 11:43 LSB wrote: TheMango, just a question, why is it that when I try stalking you some of you posts don't show up in your post history? blah(and then he spams for 3 more posts) On December 27 2010 12:37 LSB wrote: What do you feel about lynching inactives / spammers? What do you feel that the blues should do? Gets people to talk. On December 27 2010 12:43 LSB wrote: That was at Incog/Flamewheel On December 27 2010 12:43 LSB wrote: Can I write one then? spam On December 27 2010 13:26 LSB wrote: I don't believe Pandain is mafia just because he fingered Mr. Wiggles. Clearly at the time Mr. Wiggles did not contribute anything, and Pandain just voted to accent his point. Indeed, as Ver put in his town guide, spamming can be detrimental to the town. Now, I don't belive we should lynch Mr. Wiggles. It is far to early to tell anything about him, and also I'd rather lynch a lurker/inactive than a spammer. His first real "analysis" post, rather than the what I shall call "informative" posts(those being where you just give information without explanation.) I'm going to note that LSB has been active so far, and has, at least in my opinion, been contributing greatly. So far, LSB has been pro town. On December 27 2010 13:37 LSB wrote: + Show Spoiler + Disclaimer: I don't believe that we'll actually lynch an inactive. How about Zero meaningful posts? If all they have is spam and one vote with an explination of "I agree". That would be an inactive Or if we seriously have no idea what to do, we could lynch someone about to be modkilled, a way to essentially abstain Abstaining=bad. You should know this. On December 28 2010 00:40 LSB wrote: DTs should be using mouths to claim if someone is red or not, it shouldn't be an issue since we can use PMs this game. Hmm... Never noticed him @LunarDestiny What do you think we should do about inactives then? another"what do you think" On December 28 2010 00:43 LSB wrote: The question is whether the defensiveness is because he was a bit touchy, or if it is because he's sweating as Mafia. Note, Meapak has never been mafia yet. And always, someone's first game as mafia is very loose (I should know), and super defensiveness is incredibly telling. Now that I think about it, you have been quite defensive. On December 28 2010 01:15 LSB wrote: Firstly, pointing out that someone isn’t on topic isn’t analysis. It’s just plain distracting. Why don’t you include my two posts at the start of the game? Their spam too! Please read Pokemafia. Thanks! Help me then. What analysis could I do at that point? Read the thread please Do you seriously think that I need to pretend to be active? Why don't you analyze my defense of Pandain, what does it say? Nice ‘analysis’ yourself btw. Okay, big post. First I want to point out how LSB has constantly said "he hardly defends himself", in both thread and to me in PMs. And I'll later show you pms showing how he claims annul knew LSB wouldn't defend himself, and just posted his analysis of LSB and hoped people would forget about it. But look at how this post is. 1.Criticizes annul for pointing out LSB's spam, saying it isn't "analysis." 2.Only responds to specific portotions, the weakest ones, or ones that don't even have analysis. This post looks long, but really isn't. He's hardly responded, while seeming to. On December 28 2010 01:34 LSB wrote: Personally, I would like DT checks on the inactives. That could be an easy way to clear people. That does bring up an issue, we should make it so that there is some way for the DT to be able to say what they checked, so that when they die, their information doesn't get lost. What if at the start of every day, people just randomly say a person's name, and a role. The DTs would say who they checked and someone's role. It would look something like this + Show Spoiler + LSB is Townie Infun is Mafia DTA is DT LSB writes I checked Infun, he's medic Infun writes I checked LSB, he's mafia DTA writes I checked Infun, he's mafia And so when DTA dies, we can go back and check out his checks Innovative, but a bad idea. By this means if a DT did find someone, they couldn't just lead a charge against him via analysis without claiming, it would all be too easy for mafia then to figure that out. Still, for thinking up new ideas, I'm going to call this pro town. On December 28 2010 02:52 LSB wrote: Well remember, there are only 2 DTs. Although this might help the mafia confirm who is who, there will be a lot more than 2 people getting all the roles right. Also, once the DT establishes a mouth, this could be a way for the DT to throw off the mafia, by posting false responses in the thread in order to get off the hit list. This I don't like. Here he actually admits the problems with the plan. He admits that it could help mafia find out who is who, and says "well, maybe more than one person got it right!"Actually, that's pretty unlikely considering again, if they lead a charge against you, its likely they checked you and are dt. And it'll be easy to find out if they did check you. On December 28 2010 03:08 LSB wrote: Remember, if we pull this off, all thirty people will be telling what's going on. Basically you have a 50/50% of getting someone's role right. (Okay maybe a bit less, but not much). A dt can easily hide within the mass of people getting the roles correct Now as for the fakeout Exactly, the DT will only do this when there is an established mouth. It's alot less. Maybe he just really likes plans(he does) and WANTS it to work, but his insistence is worrying me. On December 28 2010 04:48 LSB wrote: What do you think of my plan? What do you think about the use of DT mouths? Indeed I agree that it could be a mafia tell. I do have a few people in mind in this game. However, these people are so much easier to analyze than someone like Oceanic in Pokemafia. Don't like this. Especialy the end statement, he says he's suspicious of someone without saying why. This is a very commen mafia tell, because unless you're waiting to see how they respond, there's no point not sharing with the town. And you can tell he's not waiting to see how they respond because he said this. On December 28 2010 04:51 LSB wrote: Lol yay we're not spamming irony yayayayay On December 28 2010 05:25 LSB wrote: I've seen it many times actually. Kenpachi/Coagulation (Almost, but we switched)- Deconduo's Don't lose your village game Me/Pyrr- TLMMM 2 Me- Harry Potter Mafia Masq- Haunted Mafia Bill Murray (Almost, but Ace made us switch x.x)- Penalty Mafia And many others... doesn't really contribute here either :/ On December 28 2010 05:26 LSB wrote: Okay, now your post makes a bit more sense. But the point still stands. Why is it so bad to put pressure on one person and then move? Why is this better than RNG? again asks more from people without giving his own stuff so much. On December 28 2010 05:40 LSB wrote: Yes but we would be pointing fingers at every single inactive. We wouldn't just focus on one (Like how a lynch would work), we would just take notice of people and ask them questions. On a somewhat related note... Well, there's a few good discussion points right now. Like what do you think of me? As for TheMango, I'll PM him then Continues with the inactive speech. And again states the "what do you think." On December 28 2010 06:15 LSB wrote: Let's see what you have done this game. 1. Giant wall of text that pretends to be contributing+ Show Spoiler + On December 28 2010 01:00 annul wrote: what is the point of this post? acting as if he is mafia to create the impression he is not mafia? WIFOM surely, but think about it what is the point of this? instant attempt to form a wagon on someone who hasnt even posted yet and the game had just started? two posts to seem active and he answers his own question a minute later. point of this? "should we lynch an inactive?" <-- probably knows mafia is most likely to at least pay attention to the thread enough to evade being labeled inactive. probably knows even if there are mafia inactives, he can choose any other town inactive and maintain the aura of "hey im helping out town" the rest of this is informative sure, but common sense? but the line "We should therefore push to lynch an inactive day one." worries me. much better to hit an active scummy person and LSB should know this. "DO NOT CLAIM" is good advice, and i would like to say obvious, but given current history and shit it isnt =\ 1 and 2 are fine, 3 is not - you don't claim here, you just admit to being hit - preferably to town circle if you know where it is. 4 is a catch-all sure, but claiming day 1 to a "super awesome plan" is a horrible idea. that said though, LSB is providing pure information (some of which is sketchy) and no analysis. this early it is usually fine but consider it in the light of his earlier postings? it is like he wants to be active but isnt contributing valuable stuff. common sense information fair question! ? more "hit inactives" crap - this is bad. also maybe a blue fish? wants to write a day post. uh huh. keep this in mind with the "try to appear active but not" lens. HEY something of content, cool. sort of defense of pandain and blatant defense of mr. wiggles. sadly the rationale of "inactives instead!" is scummy. dunno how to analyze this -- information that isnt common sense (or meant to filibuster) is fine, and even i didnt know this one. id say this gets a pass yes, lets lynch people with zero meaningful posts. LSB, you up? or yes lets lynch a modkill target because those are almost certainly going to be town and we want to lynch towns, yes. you too. good idea, i like this, but why sign up and then insta modkill on purpose? if youre replaced its not like you can consider any potential wins by the mafia as wins for you -- you are considered not to have even played the game. seems like something nobody should ever do on purpose and if they do, metagaming at its finest. buuuut then we haaaave..... "DONT WORRY ABOUT BEING INACTIVE LOL" after his entire campaign day 1 was "kill the inactives" -- whaaaat? what is this inconsistency? yes coagulation got a 14 day ban on purpose to "help" his mafia team day 1, this makes perfect sense. ***************** in conclusion, LSB has been making pure nonposts and/or pure informative posts without analysis, with the two exceptions being his insistence on the "kill inactives" theme and his defenses of pandain and mr. wiggles. yet he has like 30 posts up while saying almost absolutely nothing. my vote is on LSB now. Notice that Annul quotes every single post I made. This is just silly. Sure, I like to spam. But do you really need to point out every single instance? At least put it in a spoiler. The reason why Annul does this is to put some kind of useless contributing so that he can increase his post length. For example take LMNOP in WaW mafia. He just posted long walls of text and came off as green and helpful. He still tries to build this facade of his contributions. + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2010 05:49 annul wrote: you mean like you? i think ~24/30 of this game will agree that i have contributed much more analysis to this game than you have. the 6 who wont are you and your five mafia teammates. if there are seven mafia or eight mafia then it will be 23/30 and 22/30 who will agree with this. =\ He's trying to set up the fact that he's a good contributor. And then he tries to establish his greenies just because he makes long posts. 2. He doesn't want to do anything about inactives + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2010 01:27 annul wrote: 1. i read pokemafia. still a horrible idea to lynch inactives over active scum Comming from a game of Pokemafia, I know the damage that an inactive can do. He simply dismisses any discussion over an inactive without much reason 3. He makes a faulty analysis that is forced + Show Spoiler + Well, let's look at how substantial his posts are 2. you could do whatever analysis you please? all i know is you didnt do any Firstly, up to this point, barely anyone had posted anything. Intrestingly enough, I've posted many reasoning on blue actions, and how to deal with inactives. Yet Annul brushes it aside. I've clearly analyzed Pandain. And yet he claims that I have done nothing? 3. evidently you do need to pretend to be active, since you did for ~30 posts I'm pretending to be active. This would be a valid concern, if I did nothing but spam. However, I have pleanty of posts that arn't spam, and far more than Annul. 4. it says you are defending pandain? i dont understand what you are asking me to do Note: He doesn't analyze my actions At all. All he does it point out spam. From his 'analysis' we can see a few things. 1) His reasoning is incredibly flawed. He ignores all meaningfull posts and focuses on the spam 2) This analysis is probably forced. There are many inconsistancies he can't explain so he simply ignores it. 4. Annul posts without brining anything new + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2010 05:39 annul wrote: this worries me i already highlighted LSB's defense of pandain. now pandain is defending LSB on my FOS. in and of itself that is fine but his rationale is "if hes mafia, we'll catch him anyway" ... whaaaaaat? basically pandain is saying "so what if he acts scummy day 1, if hes mafia he will act scummy days 2-X and we can lynch him then" <--- am i missing something here when i call this horrible logic? on point: i am not so sure public claiming of being hit is 100% the smart play, but am willing to be persuaded on this strategy debate. note that even if LSB turns out correct and this is the proper strategy, it does not acquit him of scumminess. second, "mistaking jokes for real content" makes me scratch my head. can anyone just out and say "JUST KIDDING LOL" if someone calls them up on something? i think a big part of my case against him is in the spammy nature, as you call it. he posts a lot without actually posting a lot, you know what i mean? its that plus his case against inactives that bothers me. Lets take a look at what he said 1) I said stuff before 2) I feel that not claiming being hit is a good idea. wtf? Remember, always claim if your hit. The mafia knows who they hit. The town doesn't. Why not share the information? 3) Let's talk about something irrevelent 4) LSB spams As you can see. He did not post anything new. All he did was re-highlight points he made before. And then describe his feelings. This is the post that first set me off about LSB. Beforehand, he had been acting what I would call pro town. Contributing, being pretty reasonable for the mots part. But this post, it just doesn't seem right. First off he picks at annul for silly reasons, like including every post of LSB in his analysis. I do that, why can't annul? LSB then goes on to say that he did this because he wanted to seem to be contributing without really contributing, but I would definitely consider such a post to be contributing.Throughout this entire post LSB is trying to show that annul tried to force his analysis on LSB, but really it just seems like this post is forced. Furthormore he made a giant leap with his #2, that annul doesn't want to lynch inactives. In fact, LSB quoted a post annul made but totally misinterpeteted it. Annul said that he would rather lynch active scum over inactives, which is something I would most likely agree with. But LSB took this way out of context, similar to what I did with Dr. H in haunted mafia. For #3 he hardly elaborates on the inconsistencies stated, and I find that suspicious. Furthormore, look at this post. I'm pretending to be active. This would be a valid concern, if I did nothing but spam. However, I have pleanty of posts that arn't spam, and far more than Annul. Perhaps I am looking to far in, but that post seems to imply: 1.He WAS pretending to be active, but that's okay because he also had meaningful posts. The first part is the most important. And #4 is wrong, as no one had accused LSB beforehand. On December 28 2010 06:38 LSB wrote: + Show Spoiler + What's PBPA? And the key point I'm making is that, I did not ignore or brush off your analysis. The key point is that if I can respond to every single one of your points in a post that is a fraction of the length http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=179009¤tpage=14#275, it means that your analysis is fluff No it is not. You still do not have any solution to deal with inactives. We've been talking about plans, however your voice is suspiciously absent. We cannot just ignore inactives. We ignored inactives in Pokemafia and we lost the game You are asking to "worry about the inactive at a later date". This is not taking a position What about my analysis of Pandain? You have not address this in any point. In fact you ignore it right here All right. Tell me what I should have analyized then? Should attack you because you haven't posted yet? No! I did not make any analysis in the first few hours of the game because you cannot. It is impossible to deduce who the mafia are from a simple day post. And when I did make analysis, it was when a lot of post had gathered up. But you chose to ignore this This is not unfair. This is me pointing out what happens. Read above 1) I analyze Pandain. You pointed out that I analyzed Pandain. 2) You say that I didn't analyze anyone. It's laugable because it's your attempt at posting nothing. I don't like this post. FIrst off he brushes asides annul's analysis, saying he addressed it(and linking to where he "did." But if you'll look up to when I comment on that post, he really didn't, preffering instead to nit pick at small details. Furthormore, he constantly speaks of his "analysis of me", but that was only like what, one sentence long? On December 28 2010 07:34 LSB wrote: A big argument between two people never gets much done, so I'll just keep this short. Before you go vote for me. Go through my posts. There are clear examples of me taking positions and analysis. There is a big difference between what Annul wants you to believe, and what I said. Probably most of it is from a misunderstanding. I don't provide analysis in a game for a while. Annul probably saw the tail end of my Shockeyy analysis. However, that happened on day two. I'm not letting up on Annul. But just trying to keep the thread focused on inactives. Tries to stop the huge war between annul and LSB. Possibly pro town, possibly not. It depends. But the most important about this post is here he says Annul is just misunderstanding. As you'll see later he constantly will and has said that annul is saying this because he's mafia. Note the contradictions. On December 28 2010 07:40 LSB wrote: Indeed. 1/4 are basically the same thing. How about this. With a bit more explanation. 1) Makes posts that don't do much, but pretend to be contributing. Then congratulates himself of all the contributions that he did. This is a mafia manuver. See LMNOP in WaW mafia 2) Although Annul says inactives hurt the town, he has not done anything to attempt to deal with the problem. He has shot down all attempts at working together a solution without offering a reason, let alone an alternative. This is a decidedly anti-town maneuver, as leaving the inactives alone will lose us the game. See Pokemafia 3) Annul analysis is forced. This is incredibly telling. See my analysis on SR in TMM2, I was mafia and I made a forced junk analysis in order to try to take off heat. 1.When did Annul congragulate himself? 2. It's not like annul shot down the plans, he just thinks your mafia and trying to get you lynched. 3.You never showed Annul's analysis is forced. On December 28 2010 07:49 LSB wrote: So why didn't I just let Pandain fall? I could have attacked him Btw, why is Pandain scum? ty  On December 28 2010 08:09 LSB wrote: Okay, sure, TheMango voted for me. If you want, you can choose. Just RNG a number from this list I don't get this. LSB can you explain? On December 28 2010 08:36 LSB wrote: My best explanation of this has to do with how I acted in Harry Potter Mafia and Pokemafia. There was this giant bandwagon on me day one, and I didn't really do much about it. In Pokemafia I just dismissed analysis against me and didn't do much about it. This game is different as Annul's analysis was horrendious and sparked some alarms. I then sat back and watched as Annul kept it up. This is why I'm openly attacking him now. + Show Spoiler + Well... Harry Potter Mafia, I didn't bother with the bandwagon because the plan was basically to get me lynched.... thanks DocH x.x Don't like this post either. First off he says that annul's analysis was horrendus, when really it wasn't. LSB is only saying it was for petty reasons like "he included every post I made." Furthormore, he notes that he defended himself in HP mafia BECAUSE he was mafia. Finally, again contradicts himself with the previous statement that annul is just misunderstanding. On December 28 2010 11:42 LSB wrote: Let's refocus on inactives. There are two lurkers/inactives that have voted so far. 6. TheMango- I consider him a lurker as he hasn't offered insight on anything. 30. ~OpZ~- Hasn't done much in thread. He has PMed me, but I don't know if he is actually active. If why/Brocket/GeorgeClooney gets around to voting/posting, we could switch the lynch. But currently we should push to lynch the people who actually aren't in danger of being modkilled. People probably with say that I have a conflict of interest with TheMango since he voted for me. So I'm find with voting off ~OpZ~ Interestingly here we find him trying to redirect the conversatino back to the inactives. I prodded him about this and he says it was because he said foolishness told him to try to refocus on the inactives. I will believe him. But I don't like how he's trying to put focus on the mango, when there are far better canidates. The mango, while not doing huge analysis's, has been giving his opinions and analyzing things. There are other people who have hardly even spoken as of yet. So :/ On December 28 2010 15:39 LSB wrote: I'm confused. Can someone point out my scummy posts? I want to see if you all actually read what I wrote or just mouthing information from Annul. As for the OpZ inactive lynch, he has posted a bit now. But he hasn't really said anything besides what other people had posted. Don't like this either. The purpose of voting inactives is so they post. If they do, even if it's not that great, as long as he gives his opinions its time to go to the next person. I find it suspicious that he would rather lynch people like opz instead of people like shockey or brocket. On December 29 2010 00:33 LSB wrote: OMGUS: The point is, lets say I do an analysis of you, and its all lies. Wouldn't you be suspicious of me? It would be selfish of me to not do anything about it. As a townie I have a responsibility to attack Annul, even though it may be a bit scummy Inactives: In case you haven't noticed, I've been dealing with the inactives using blue roles. I proposed we deal with inactives by a combination of DT checks and mass cover by everyone allowing the DTs to safely . The thing is, this plan was immediatly dismissed by people who probably didn't read the thread. All they say is "well, lets not rely on DTs". In addition, as I've said, we should lynch an inactive only when there iw no obvious mafia canditdate. Given that I found a obvious mafia candidate... I don't like this post. First off the statement "As a townie I have a responisibility to attack Annul, even though it may be a bit scummy" sets off alarms in my head. First off, how would you have a responsibility to do that. And he even admits it is scummy. And also contradicts that he just thought annul was misunderstanding, now saying he's mafia. On December 29 2010 00:37 LSB wrote: If you guys divert the lynch, I will prove, without a doubt, my role at the end of night two. Ho ho ho. Now this is very intersting. From these statements we can deduce that LSB is either vigi or DT(most likely the former.) And as he says, and will say in the future(and in pms to me) he can PROVE that he's his role. That also hints to him being vigi. But what I don't like about this claim is he claimed so early. If he is blue, why would he claim already when he still has like 10 hours to go? Usually you wait until like at the very least 3 hours before lynch, not 10 hours before. On December 29 2010 00:37 LSB wrote: Maybe earlier On December 29 2010 02:14 LSB wrote: I am claiming blue. Just not what role. As for convincing you. It impossible since your attack is forced and you left reason a long while ago. Don't like this either. Note that LSB has never really address Annul, instead poking at small details. And this is very similar to what I did vs. DR. H, saying that you can't debate with someone because you won, when really you just won irrelevant arguments(and LSB hasn't even won his!) On December 29 2010 02:23 LSB wrote: Yeah, but I'm blue. And I can prove this. The point is, the fact that you are willing to lynch one of your blues means that this lynch has become something else to you. It no longer is about helping out the town, it's about proving to yourself that you can get someone lynched. It's time to abort. Don't like this either. IT's pretty obvious that Annul could just be a townie who thinks your lying. And there's nothing suspicious about that. By saying this, LSB is very scummy to me. On December 29 2010 02:25 LSB wrote: WTF? As a blue player I need to keep myself alive. So why did you claim so early? On December 29 2010 03:05 LSB wrote: I'm going to ignore Annul for a while. Right now, all the votes are split. What we need to do is refocus the votes on a few candidates. I propose the candidates be Me, annul or OpZ. If you want to vote for a blue who can confirm himself, go for it. It will help us find scum on day 2. As for Annul. I feel like with the mass of people voting me, we should refocus onto OpZ, or we won't get enough votes. OpZ is the inactive vote. He hasn't done much this game besides reiterated points that people have already spoken. I'm up for redirected the inactive vote to someone else. I don't like this either. He still is trying to get Opz lynched when there are other people we should be focusing on(like Shockey or Jackal). Furthormore now he's hinting at being dt with the "I'll help u find scum on day 2"(at least it seems that way to me.) But it's pretty obvious up to this point that he was either vigi or mafia. My PMS WITH HIM Ya, that's spam. ----------------------------------------- Original Message From Pandain: On December 28 2010 00:43 LSB wrote: Show nested quote + <3 you too. I want to see the analysis. ----------------------------------------- Original Message From LSB: wut? ----------------------------------------- Original Message From Pandain: but before hand you said you were eagerly awaiting it. ----------------------------------------- Original Message From LSB: 1 standalone post does not warrent attention in most games. ----------------------------------------- Original Message From Pandain: so if an analysis is good you won't respond to it? (most games) and if an analysis is bad you will (this game) ----------------------------------------- Original Message From LSB: read the thread ----------------------------------------- Original Message From Pandain: some theory youg ot. so 1.Why did you defend yourself? 2.Why did he pick you on the basis of one game. ----------------------------------------- Original Message From LSB: 1. Annul Hosts Harry Potter Mafia. Figures that I ignore analysis 2. Annul is Mafia in XXXV 3. Annul decides he's going to pretend to be active by making a large analysis. So he picks someone that probably isn't going to respond. He picks me. ----------------------------------------- Original Message From Pandain: now restate to me what your theory is. from annul reading in harry potter mafia, remembering it, to annul being mafia. ----------------------------------------- Original Message From LSB: Go read the beginning of Harry Potter Mafia. Annul Hosted it and expected that I would react the same way. ----------------------------------------- Original Message From Pandain: but now your saying that he made a long post in the beginning because he thought you wouldn't defend yourself because he knew that for some strange reason, and yet you defend yourself now(why) and say he's mafia because of that. Your theory is getting more and more stretched. Not only that you're using wifom. I'm voting you, mmkay? ----------------------------------------- Original Message From LSB: Normally I don't defend myself. Harry Potter Mafia? I only defended myself since it was horrendously bad. ----------------------------------------- Original Message From Pandain: obviously you would defend yourself. But annul thought that everyone would just ignore it? why would he be so bold on day 1, at the very start, just to "gain town favor" and hope its ignored. ----------------------------------------- Original Message From LSB: Nope, I defended myself and put pressure on him. That's why he's continued to post. This is what pressure is. ----------------------------------------- Original Message From Pandain: So he made a long thing analysis, even saying beforehand "Guys im making analysis of LSB"(thus bringing more attention), then has continued to do this because he wanted it to get ignored? ----------------------------------------- Original Message From LSB: He wants to win the town favor by making a long post and hoping that it gets ignored. That way he can go back and say "Look at all the analysis I did!". And indeed he has done that. Also, check this out. Take out my arguments with him and his analysis of my. What else does he have left? Not much. ----------------------------------------- Original Message From Pandain: why would he force himself to do an analysis on you so early? don't you think if he was really red he wouldn't be this so much out in attention? ----------------------------------------- Original Message From LSB: Yeah. His analysis is forced. ----------------------------------------- Original Message From Pandain: do you really think he's red? I've been pming him and do not like what I see. If you read, you can see that he has this whole theory on that "Annul knew I wouldn't defend myself so he made a long post hoping it would get ignored." Yet Annul even brought attention that he would make that post, so LSB's theory doesn't make sense. It just seems to me that LSB is reaching at straws. | ||
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Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
On December 29 2010 05:06 LSB wrote: If I offer myself to be lynched, will you lynch Annul afterwards? No because I don't think you or Annul are red... I think you are blue and annul is green. Annul = Brocket You = Gabriel From pokemafia... Annul just doesn't let go and now we get to lynch one of the most helpful townies . | ||
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Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
Annul's first analysis on LSB being mafia is on based on the fact that LSB had many bad/meaningless posts. If you look at posts prior, there are discussions but there are also spamming from others. If Annul is mafia and they want LSB dead, then why would they use not very good reason like spamming as their main reason to lynch LSB. Annul also gave out another reason on p. 18 his insistence on going after inactives instead of scumhunting. it would be very easy for a mafia to know his team all happen to be active and then say "hey kill inactives over all else EVEN IF scummy targets exist In this game, there are many inactives. I do not think that there is no inactive in mafia's team. Annul is right about scumhunting is better than inactives pressuring because scumhunting provides reason for lynches. Pressuring inactives is not as good because the main reason for it is we don't have to deal with inactive town in the future. I definitely favor killing mafia now over having a better composed town in the future. LSB also pointed out that Annul is posting the analyze on him to be used as a reference later to make himself look good and Annul really want to slip by with his post. If Annul really want to slip by, then why would he let LSB know that he will be posting an analysis on LSB 1 minute after LSB had just posted? If Annul want to slip by, then why would he choose LSB to analyze if he don't want any respond back? Annul would be better off if he choose to analyze a weaker player if he just want to make a long post to make himself look good. Now in LSB's case, it is really hard to find flaws in him because he is such a careful player. One reason that I find LSB scummy if that he is saying he is a blue when he is in big danger of being lynched. This seems to be happen in every game when a mafia is being lynched. I don't remember a game I played where a mafia is being lynched and he claims as vanilla townie. I don't have any reason that LSB is being mafia as of now. I'll post more if I find any after I reread some posts. LSB said he can prove his innocence on day3, but this is also an excuse I seen many mafia who are being lynch used. We also can not easily clear LSB with a dt check. I will vote LSB, base on the fact that I don't see better lynch. Also by lynching LSB, we do get some information on other posters based on their stand points. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On December 29 2010 05:11 LunarDestiny wrote: I don't have any reason that LSB is being mafia as of now. I'll post more if I find any after I reread some posts. LSB said he can prove his innocence on day3, but this is also an excuse I seen many mafia who are being lynch used. Can you post a link for me? | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + Don't worry. I'll forward this PM chain before I get lynched . I'm not telling anyone my role. If you want, just Vig me at the start of night two if you don't like my plan. I need to claim early because I was clearly going to get lynched. Look at who is voting for me. annul- Obvously won't switch TheMango- Inactive Mr.Zergling- Inactive orgolove- Inactive DoctorHelvetica- Mad because I prodded him Meapak_Ziphh- Summy Soulfire- Inactive Brocket- Mad because I didn't listen to him in Pokemafia Barundar- Dunno ----------------------------------------- Original Message From Pandain: why can't you tell me if you won't die anyway? I'm posting an analysis on you. I need to know now. answer second question too mmkay? ----------------------------------------- Original Message From LSB: I can't tell you how I'm going to prove that I am blue. Also, tell the Medics to Protect DocH. If I can tell his role, mafia can certainly tell. ----------------------------------------- Original Message From Pandain: how can you prove your blue medics will protect you if you tell me now also why did you claim so early? there were still like 15 hours left Someone has been fishing hard for my role | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
Why do I talk about inactives? There's more to the game than just me and Annul. When most of the town is doing nothing but making one or two posts saying "I agree" this is a big problem If you do not deal with inactives now, the town will lose Why Claim Early? Well I addressed this in PM already. Read the post above | ||
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Insanious
Canada1251 Posts
No info: Anti LSB: - Annul Pro LSB: - Me Annul = town, easy to see Me = town, because I know I'm town :/, hopefully my posts speak for me. LSB turns up green: - We have no suspects to look at LSB turns red: - We look at me... awesome? want to know how I know LSB isn't red... No one is trying to divert the lynch, if LSB was red, the mafia would be trying to throw up another name to be lynched instead of LSB. Is that happening? NOOOOO Mafia are throwing LSB under the bus because... LSB isn't mafia. People, if he was mafia we would be having a lot more discussion rather then Annul: "LSB is mafia" LSB: "No I'm not" Everyone else: "I don't know who is mafia, lets bandwagon LSB" This is just bad town play, and for one, I am disappointed... We are voting for: 1) An active player 2) A player that might be blue 3) A player that no one is really defending 4) A player that if he turns red, there are no other posters to look at if he flips LSB is a terrible lynch... | ||
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
I remember I seen them before but can you disprove by showing games where an active mafia is lynched on day1 and they did not say they can prove their innocence. In addition, find a game where a mafia being lynched and they claim vanilla townie. | ||
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
With a vigilante claim the mafia has a real incentive to kill him tonight to get rid of mafia KP, so we will know whether or not he is mafia in 2 days. There is NO reason to kill him now, since we can hold him off as a "sure thing" day 3 if he hasn't killed someone by then or is not dead. Now for RoL's badass analysis of the game, raping Red's day 1. Seraph On December 27 2010 10:28 seRapH wrote: Hey guys this is an obvious slip-up, we should lynch TheMango. Town wouldn't want to "get rid" of people  Also DrH because there's always a high chance of him being mafia. A nothing post, just the pregame jovial attitude usually shown by mafia. On December 27 2010 10:54 seRapH wrote: I highly doubt there's any more than 1 framer in this game, but we should keep rolecheck candidates to 4 or 5 to minimize framer/miller influence. One of my favorite little tells that a lot of people give off is format speculation early on, he is one of the first to discuss it. Seraph and LD. Although a LOT of people have done it in this game because their was a new role I think we can view this as an additional circumstance to his "mafia" behavior since a lot of people exemplify this strait. On December 27 2010 13:31 seRapH wrote: Since we're discussing lynching inactives (which at this point I mostly agree with unless something drastically better pops up) what are we using to define "inactive"? <5 posts? No meaningful posts? And how will we pick the inactive? Or should we all pick our own inactive to lynch? At this point he gets on the"lets lynch inactives" train and trying to figure out how to define inactives. First off I am going to say this right now. Fuck lynching inactives. It is such a stupid plan most of the time, lynching an inactive does two VERY anti town things. One it provides ZERO information because generally there is no vote split on inactives its usually a unanimous decision among the town, and on top of that since there is NO information to decide on who we are going to lynch because they are inactive the mafia have a huge influence over just which inactive guy we decide to kill. In summary lynching inactives makes Day 1 a day we get NO information and on top of that the lynch is more readily swayed by the mafia, yielding our daily KP to them. It is just stupid. What annul did is exactly what I would do. Just start throwing shit and see who comes out of the wood work. Ideally though you aim to target someone who you believe is red. But either way the important thing is we are getting information. On December 27 2010 13:36 seRapH wrote: Inactives with zero posts or votes will be modkilled/replaced, so I guess what I meant was lurkers. How will we determine who are lurkers and how will we pick which to be irradiated? On December 27 2010 13:40 seRapH wrote: Except they could be replaced, not necessarily modkilled. On December 27 2010 14:04 seRapH wrote: Bah DrH is our only replacement right? I kinda wish there were a few more but whatev =\ We are going to see a recurring trend with Seraph, He doesn't really ever stop talking about inactives and mod kills at all. On December 27 2010 14:22 seRapH wrote: I don't want luck to have any more to do with this than it has to. Early vig hits is much too risky, and has just as much if not more chance of hitting blue than it does of hitting red. Sure reducing KP is important, but keeping our number of blues is even moreso. On December 27 2010 14:53 seRapH wrote: Right, so this isn't something that's exactly urgent, is it? Day 1 lynching, however, is. Now one big thing to notice here, he advises against using KP and uses a TERRIBLE argument. This is a giant redflag to me. Why the hell would there be a better chance of hitting a blue then a red with a vigi hit? If we hold off our vigi hits there is a better chance the mafia will kill the vigi and we lose that KP too. That's roughly equivalent to telling mad hatters not to place bombs until night 3 because chances are they will just bomb a blue. It just chances us wasting our KP that we shouldn't be. On top of that if a vigi is doing ANY amount of behavioral analysis then they should be able to hit a god damn red by night 2 if they choose to, MAYBE hold it off until night 3. I generally would not recommend holding off your hit because it increases the chance of the town losing it. And on top of that Seraph says we have more important things to discuss then vigi's, like the day 1 lynch. Alright, I can agree with that but seriously what the fuck is there to talk about if you are lynching an inactive? Exactly, nothing. Its just basically RNG whichever person not posting the mafia approves of and unanimously killing them. On December 27 2010 15:00 seRapH wrote: Well given that it's day 1 we're mostly waiting for people to check in. So people should be pitching in about their stances on the following issues: Day 1 lynch- Inactives or suspects, and then who? Role of PMs in this game Any questions you guys may have should also be asked, an informed town is a good town ^_^ Alright let me get this strait. By your agenda we should be lynching inactives and searching for them but we need to wait for people to check in day 1...? Pretty much self explanatory. So far we have seen a good amount of anti town posting from Seraph on top of a bit of spammyness. On December 28 2010 07:49 seRapH wrote: It's pretty obvious that the Pandain wagon makes zero sense, so if you were mafia trying to establish credibility letting that go through would be stupid. Annul my vote is going on you now because after reading through this thread I also think your analysis has been forced. Also I'm keeping an eye on meapak. This is one of the posts I found really interesting. The pandain wagon did make no sense and Seraph says what I think he is trying to do. We can just label it wifom. At the same time he discredits Annul saying his argument is forced On December 28 2010 08:55 seRapH wrote: A forced argument is when you try to conjure up something out of nothing. Then explains what forced means! But seriously, how is Annul's analysis forced? I read it, it felt pretty natural to me. Annul remains dedicated and keeps going for his lynch of LSB and LSB OMGUS him back which is a really shitty way to play and incredibly anti town. The thing is I also believe that could just be a blue tell from LSB believing his role to be important for town victory. The last thing he does is FOS on Meapak but not saying ANYTHING about why. At least give some reason. On December 28 2010 11:54 seRapH wrote: I like that you're going to help us with this inactive thing, but we shouldn't be lynching someone who's about to get modkilled for not showing up. On December 28 2010 17:17 seRapH wrote: Just clearing this up, but you do mean Insane Mafia, not Haunted, right? Seraph then stresses that we go back to lynching inactives while clearing up such a trivial issue between insane/haunted mafia. The running trend with Seraph is anti town play, just focusing on lynching an inactive and really not committing at ALL on the annul/LSB situation. This could be because he doesn't want to be associated with supporting a bad lynch of either of them, or not wanting to side at risk of being exposed when his ally gets lynched. With that being said, I strongly believe Seraph is mafia and we should lynch to kill him and hold off on the LSB/Annul situation because of how important blue roles are to a town victory. On top of that if/when LSB fails to prove his claim we get another free mafia kill that we can make a vigi use. LSB is claiming to be able to PROVE his alliance by night 2 and if he can't then well I am sure we can do something about that can't we? We just need to stay focused and get him killed then and not get distracted by other "better" targets. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
Where? No mafia has stated that they can prove without a doubt that they are blue. but can you disprove by showing games where an active mafia is lynched on day1 and they did not say they can prove their innocence. Harry Potter Mafia Yours truely In addition, find a game where a mafia being lynched and they claim vanilla townie. Hesmyrr BC Lots of people here | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
rofl it was a bus of course you arent going to claim blue because you are being bussed! your goal was death. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On December 29 2010 05:42 annul wrote: rofl it was a bus of course you arent going to claim blue because you are being bussed! your goal was death. So do you think I'm mafia? It doesn't sound like it. Kenpachi/Coagulation (Almost, but we switched)- Deconduo's Don't lose your village game Masq- Haunted Mafia Bill Murray- Penalty Mafia | ||
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deconduo
Ireland4122 Posts
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