|
On July 25 2024 00:24 PremoBeats wrote:Show nested quote +On July 24 2024 21:37 UnLarva wrote:@Premobeast Quote from the Analysis: 1. World Championships and World Championship Level events. This category includes WCS Global Finals, BlizzCons and IEM World Championships after 2018, representing the most prestigious events of the world, where the best of the best compete. This category has a multiplier of 1,1.
2. GSL Code S, OSL, SSL until 2020 come in at a value of 1. The separation to later GSLs was made due to the restructuring of the tournament after 2020 Code S season 3 where player amount and difficulty of advancing was diminished a lot.
3. ESL Masters as well as DreamHack Season Finals from 2020 onwards, Master’s Coliseum. In contrast to Mizenhauer I devalued these events slightly in comparison to Code S, OSL and SSL. Although DH Last Chance 2022 (won by Maru), DH Last Chance 2021 (Serral 2nd place) as well as Master’s Coliseum 6 and 7 (both won by Serral) could have easily been upgraded to category 2 as the average player rank was simply absurd. MC6 had an Ro8 average of 4,75 and MC7 of 5,75 with 4,5 being the lowest possible score. These two tournaments were simply filled with the best the world had to offer until the very last moment. But out of respect to the old era (which again is a small added buff to this time) I devalued this category slightly at 0,95. This decision again disfaors Serral the most.
4. GSL Code S 2021 and following, GSL vs the World, WESG. The WESG should have been positioned in category 5 according to the involved players in Ro16 and Ro8 but was given an upward correction to category 4, as the prize pool was insane. GSL vs the world was corrected downward from category 3. Although the best of the world competed, the tournament structure was rather simple and it is widely regarded as a “show tournament” despite the best of the world attending. This category is a good example of my thought processes as for example 2013 DreamHack Open: Bucharest was corrected upward as only one player lowered the average score immensely. Lastly: 2013 WCS Season 1 was corrected upwards for era-reasonings, as it would have been placed in category 6 following the average player count. Category 4 is valued 0,8.
5. Category 5 includes random events such as King of Battles, miscellaneous Afreeca TV tournaments or ESL Masters locked regionals. Value: 0,85.
6. Mostly region-locked ESLs and HomeStoryCups which see another sharp decrease in value: 0,7.
7. This category only includes the Gold Professional Championship 2019 Season 1, which has the worst Ro16 and Ro8 ratings (86,38 and 44,75) as well as low price money. Nothing to write home about… sorry INnoVation, I can only multiply this tournament at 0,5. Is there an error (bolded) in either relative values of Category 4 and Category 5 relative weights? Is it just typo in the text, or is that error also included to the math? Not that it would make one iota difference in the big picture, but asking for clarity, as one would expect Cat 4 being weighted higher than Cat 5. Good catch! Yeah, I fucked up while writing it down... the "code" (my excel sheet) has it correctly as there, everything is standing neatly below each other. Will change it. Show nested quote +On July 24 2024 21:50 njleslu2024 wrote:On July 24 2024 11:09 lokol4890 wrote:On July 24 2024 02:01 onPHYRE wrote:On July 24 2024 01:08 lokol4890 wrote:On July 24 2024 00:34 onPHYRE wrote:On July 23 2024 12:35 onPHYRE wrote:I think this discussion can be best summarized by “If you use numbers and qualitative data, it’s clear Serral is the GOAT.” If you want to discuss things that cannot be quantified then the only real competitor to Serral is Maru and depending on what you value in a GOAT and what metrics are used, you could chose either player. However if you look at all of the metrics, Serral wins most of them, which explains why the community and current pros from a pure numbers standpoint back Serral much more often. The whole vocal minority argument comes in to play here.. I would honestly be so curious to see the answer to a true poll of people choosing who they think is the GOAT. I genuinely think it would be Serral at 65-70% of the community. Poll: Who is the GOAT?(Vote): Serral
(Vote): Maru
Well these poll results pretty accurately summarize what I strongly suspected. Not a HUGE sample size, but the overall numbers line up with what I’ve seen since the Miz list dropped. What's the sample size? E: just for kicks, went ahead and found a sample size calculator at 95% confidence level. Assuming a population of 100, the sample size would need to be 80; for 1000 it'd be 278; and for 10,000 it'd be 370 Currently at 56. Serral is at nearly 80%… Dominating just like every other measurable metric. Again, your sample is not big enough to even represent a population of 100 people. But sure, let's throw common sense out the door and use this as another metric for serral being the goat... Lowko did a poll on X, including 27 thousands people and Serral still has 80%, more sample size more advantage for Serral To be fair... I don't think too many Koreans participated in that vote  But then again... how many Koreans hear about viable pro-Serral arguments. Does anyone know what the overall Korean take on the GOAT-issue is? Show nested quote +On July 24 2024 23:40 ejozl wrote:On July 24 2024 14:39 PremoBeats wrote:On July 24 2024 00:04 ejozl wrote:
So the reason for me that Serral isn't necessarily the goat is this:
For me tournament result is the only objective measure of balance, at the end of the day, it doesn't matter how much you crush the other guy, it is about taking home the trophy. The results should be how you leave your mark on the game.
Rogue punching above his weight class is just as impressive, as were it the case that he always played at this level, even on ladder. This was the same for Stats, the best Toss of LotV, he was infamously low on the ladder. It was the opposite for sOs, everyone and their mother feared sOs, but when it came to the tournament, in LotV that is, he would falter.
You didn't counter the balance issue properly, not that you HAVE to address this issue, you could say that if you look at it objectively, this means that you should disregard balance.
But honestly, you said that if you remove Maru and Serral the biggest outliers. that the game would be pretty damned balance. If you remove herO, Protoss as a race didn't win GSL, or a higher tier caliber tournament since, after 2017. The list of players who did, excluding herO, Maru and Serral are: Oliveira, Solar, Cure, Gumiho, SoO, Scarlett, INnoVation, Dark, Reynor, Rogue and TY. 11 players and no Protoss. I wouldn't fault a person for simply excluding 2018+ years out of the GOAT debate, simply because it holds little value to be the GOAT of a 2x race game.
The argument for Serral not playing the most competitive era is tough. If SC2 almost died, but the online competitive scene continued with Maxpax dominating it for 50 years. People would argue that maxpax would be the GOAT, but the time that he played would've been simply too different, so who's really to say.
Let me write the timeline for GOATage:
MC/MVP -> Life -> sOs -> INnoVation -> Maru -> Serral
You can argue some names should be here or there, but the overarching picture is like this.
So, if we say that the end of HotS is the peak of competitiveness then that removes MC/MVP. So now it is a spectrum of how much you value the time from after the Kespa abandonment.
If you say life is meaningless after Kespa, Life is your GOAT, if you still value the era up and including to 2017, then INnoVation is your GOAT, then there is 2020+ where Blizzcon wasn't there anymore and so on and depending on how much you value the different scenes you could put either Life, sOs, INnoVation, Maru or Serral as your GOAT. If you do put Serral, Maru and Rogue in the top 3, as most people do, with possibly Dark, or INnoVation as the 4th spot, then I would consider Serral the GOAT, since the scene that includes Serral, Rogue and Maru is from 2017+. And wouldn't this in turn make 2017+ the most valuable era?, you could argue that Life couldn't be the GOAT because he didn't get to witness the Serral, Rogue and Maru peaks. So based on your observation that Protoss has no wins in high tier tournaments: Does that mean that neither a Terran nor Zerg can be GOAT? But you realize that even under the assumption that Protoss could not win (assuming T and Z were more or less balanced), a T or Z would still have to beat the other race and mirrors? I am gathering more data on balance and era, so give me some time. I'll definitely address this better next time. On July 23 2024 12:35 onPHYRE wrote:I think this discussion can be best summarized by “If you use numbers and qualitative data, it’s clear Serral is the GOAT.” If you want to discuss things that cannot be quantified then the only real competitor to Serral is Maru and depending on what you value in a GOAT and what metrics are used, you could chose either player. However if you look at all of the metrics, Serral wins most of them, which explains why the community and current pros from a pure numbers standpoint back Serral much more often. The whole vocal minority argument comes in to play here.. I would honestly be so curious to see the answer to a true poll of people choosing who they think is the GOAT. I genuinely think it would be Serral at 65-70% of the community. Poll: Who is the GOAT?(Vote): Serral
(Vote): Maru
In my opinion the poll is layed out wrongly. Because most people who are against Serral mostly argue about era. Meaning even if their GOAT was Mvp, they would much more likely settle with Maru. From what I learned (having written a couple of pieces on reddit and one here): Life, Mvp and Maru are the names people drop. I will prepare another article, where I will prepare Life's and Mvp's numbers in perfect alignment with my previous list and will also add some data to more accurately pin down era-variance. But for the next poll: Put these 4 on... It is my intuition that Maru's votes will go down much more than Serral's (or people, as they now have read this will troll me and still vote Maru ) Yes, even if serral and maru dominated and zvz,tvt,tvz is perfectly balanced and that 2 out of the 3 matchups were balanced, it still puts a huge asterix on their reign. You yourself stated it as an impressive feat that mvp, taeja, byun, serral and innovation were the top in all of their 3 matchups. Well, if you can exclude mvp and serral out of this because of balance issues, then that means only 3 ppl achieved this: inno, byun and taeja. And you can go deeper, the way that serral plays, could he have achieved what Life did in a meta where zergs couldn't rely on surperior late game and could wax-on, wax-off every attack like some Karate kid, to achieve a sure win? I think not, but i'this also goes both ways, were perhaps Life or sOs simply lucky when they garnered their big wins, due to their gambling-like playstyles? No zerg could've won as dominantly as serral in lotv, but he could've also not dominated the way he did, playing as another race, or in a different era, and this is why winning in different eras is so impressive as well. Like I said, sOs, Life, inno, maru and serral are the best candidates for #1 goat spot, that doesn't mean that these players should all be in the top 5 though. Serral did it in several different time periods.. I don't think that Zerg was utterly overtuned in all of them, no? From another perspective 4 out 5 are Terran and if you discard Serral and Mvp 3 out of 3.. is that indicative of a balance issue? Many ifs in that argument. One could also say that Serral would have altered his play style. I mean everyone was saying he only plays defensive and bam, there go timing attacks. Bane ling nerf? He doesn't need them. The guy has been on top for 6 straight years with different map pools, patches as well as playing veterans and new talent. He adapts his play style to match the opponent (and arguably has a race that is able to do that). I don't know tbh. Too many hypotheticals to pursue... he could also be another top 20 player, who knows.
It's not so much that zerg was necessarily OP during this period, but we can say now in hindsight that Protoss has been a non-issue for top players since 2018. I know for a fact that Maru, as well as innovation always had a weakness for protoss bullshit strats, but since P couldn't win with this anymore, maru dominance went to the next level. Who knows, if P was favoured late game zvp serral might've consistently lost to stats and neeb's protoss.
That byun, taeja and innovation are all terrans doesn't much point towards imbalance, though there might have been a small period, byun especially. Inno and taeja played in terran weak, or terran even eras, though inno played for long, so i cannot exclude that there was t favoured metas, but it can also point toward that terran, with good enough mechanics can overcome all three matchups, and it can also just have been a coincidink.
|
On July 25 2024 01:30 PremoBeats wrote:Show nested quote +On July 25 2024 00:49 lokol4890 wrote: The guy has been on top for 6 straight years with different map pools, patches as well as playing veterans and new talent. He adapts his play style to match the opponent (and arguably has a race that is able to do that). I don't know tbh. Too many hypotheticals to pursue... he could also be another top 20 player, who knows. I keep seeing permutations of this statement with different ranges, some people saying 6 years, some 7, some a decade (somehow). In any event I don't know what data y'all are looking at because this is just not true. Serral's best years (by far) were 2018 and 2024, but in the years in between he definitely was not continuously on top. In that same period the other top zergs have either matched him or outperformed him. Wonder why serral's peak also coincided with rogue, dark, and reynor peaking. Surely it cannot be balance  I don't know about others, but I looked at match win rates versus Koreans in given years (Serral has by far the best statistics in 6 years 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2024, Maru is the best in 2021), the Aligulac HoF (all years), percentage of being rank 1 (all years), tournament win percentages with top Korean participation (Serral wins 6 out of 7 years, 2021 was won by Rogue by 3% in comparison to Serral. Maru was down another roughly 4% that year), average placements in tournaments with top Korean participation (Serral wins 6 out of 7 years, some of which are by a large margin, Maru 2021 very closely). I didn't calculate the efficiency score for every year as that was more a life-time metric. He had the most Premier Tournaments wins in 2018, 2019, 2020 (tied with Maru and Rogue), 2021 (tied with Rogue), 2022, 2023 and (so far) 2024. So which statistics are you using to say that other Zerg toped him?
Quick example: 2019. Serral participates in 6 premier international events: iem, wesg, rog assembly summer, gsl vs the world, hsc, and blizzcon. Lost iem, lost wesg, lost rog, and lost blizzcon. Soo wins iem, dark wins blizzcon. In that year dark also wins super tournament and a gsl. So you have serral with a gsl vs the world and hsc to his name, and dark with a gsl proper, a super tournament, and blizzcon. In what universe did serral dominate 2019?
E: let's try 2020 because why not. Serral wins esl masters summer and winter. Rogue wins iem and a gsl. Dark wins TSL. Reynor wins esl masters fall and douyu cup. I don't know man, I'm expecting a person who supposedly dominates to do more than just trade tournaments with the other zergs.
|
Northern Ireland22975 Posts
On July 25 2024 03:40 lokol4890 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 25 2024 01:30 PremoBeats wrote:On July 25 2024 00:49 lokol4890 wrote: The guy has been on top for 6 straight years with different map pools, patches as well as playing veterans and new talent. He adapts his play style to match the opponent (and arguably has a race that is able to do that). I don't know tbh. Too many hypotheticals to pursue... he could also be another top 20 player, who knows. I keep seeing permutations of this statement with different ranges, some people saying 6 years, some 7, some a decade (somehow). In any event I don't know what data y'all are looking at because this is just not true. Serral's best years (by far) were 2018 and 2024, but in the years in between he definitely was not continuously on top. In that same period the other top zergs have either matched him or outperformed him. Wonder why serral's peak also coincided with rogue, dark, and reynor peaking. Surely it cannot be balance I don't know about others, but I looked at match win rates versus Koreans in given years (Serral has by far the best statistics in 6 years 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2024, Maru is the best in 2021), the Aligulac HoF (all years), percentage of being rank 1 (all years), tournament win percentages with top Korean participation (Serral wins 6 out of 7 years, 2021 was won by Rogue by 3% in comparison to Serral. Maru was down another roughly 4% that year), average placements in tournaments with top Korean participation (Serral wins 6 out of 7 years, some of which are by a large margin, Maru 2021 very closely). I didn't calculate the efficiency score for every year as that was more a life-time metric. He had the most Premier Tournaments wins in 2018, 2019, 2020 (tied with Maru and Rogue), 2021 (tied with Rogue), 2022, 2023 and (so far) 2024. So which statistics are you using to say that other Zerg toped him? Quick example: 2019. Serral participates in 6 premier international events: iem, wesg, rog assembly summer, gsl vs the world, hsc, and blizzcon. Lost iem, lost wesg, lost rog, and lost blizzcon. Soo wins iem, dark wins blizzcon. In that year dark also wins super tournament and a gsl. So you have serral with a gsl vs the world and hsc to his name, and dark with a gsl proper, a super tournament, and blizzcon. In what universe did serral dominate 2019? E: let's try 2020 because why not. Serral wins esl masters summer and winter. Rogue wins iem and a gsl. Dark wins TSL. Reynor wins esl masters fall and douyu cup. I don't know man, I'm expecting a person who supposedly dominates to do more than just trade tournaments with the other zergs.
What is Serral’s average placement across this span though? And his overall win rate?
There have definitely been other Zergs who’ve had better years in that span for sure, but Serral’s probably a lock for top 3, certainly amongst Zergs anyway for most if not all of the years across that period.
I don’t think all but the most myopic Serral fanboys have ever said he’s been the outright best every year 2018 onwards, but he’s perpetually in the top 5 for results every year. And he’s two absolute monster years in 2018 and 2024
There must be an example but I can’t think of one to mind where Serral didn’t at least place Ro8, which is just ridiculous stuff
|
(////nevermind, I mixed different chapters in this.///) Time to go to bed.
|
On July 25 2024 03:59 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On July 25 2024 03:40 lokol4890 wrote:On July 25 2024 01:30 PremoBeats wrote:On July 25 2024 00:49 lokol4890 wrote: The guy has been on top for 6 straight years with different map pools, patches as well as playing veterans and new talent. He adapts his play style to match the opponent (and arguably has a race that is able to do that). I don't know tbh. Too many hypotheticals to pursue... he could also be another top 20 player, who knows. I keep seeing permutations of this statement with different ranges, some people saying 6 years, some 7, some a decade (somehow). In any event I don't know what data y'all are looking at because this is just not true. Serral's best years (by far) were 2018 and 2024, but in the years in between he definitely was not continuously on top. In that same period the other top zergs have either matched him or outperformed him. Wonder why serral's peak also coincided with rogue, dark, and reynor peaking. Surely it cannot be balance I don't know about others, but I looked at match win rates versus Koreans in given years (Serral has by far the best statistics in 6 years 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2024, Maru is the best in 2021), the Aligulac HoF (all years), percentage of being rank 1 (all years), tournament win percentages with top Korean participation (Serral wins 6 out of 7 years, 2021 was won by Rogue by 3% in comparison to Serral. Maru was down another roughly 4% that year), average placements in tournaments with top Korean participation (Serral wins 6 out of 7 years, some of which are by a large margin, Maru 2021 very closely). I didn't calculate the efficiency score for every year as that was more a life-time metric. He had the most Premier Tournaments wins in 2018, 2019, 2020 (tied with Maru and Rogue), 2021 (tied with Rogue), 2022, 2023 and (so far) 2024. So which statistics are you using to say that other Zerg toped him? Quick example: 2019. Serral participates in 6 premier international events: iem, wesg, rog assembly summer, gsl vs the world, hsc, and blizzcon. Lost iem, lost wesg, lost rog, and lost blizzcon. Soo wins iem, dark wins blizzcon. In that year dark also wins super tournament and a gsl. So you have serral with a gsl vs the world and hsc to his name, and dark with a gsl proper, a super tournament, and blizzcon. In what universe did serral dominate 2019? E: let's try 2020 because why not. Serral wins esl masters summer and winter. Rogue wins iem and a gsl. Dark wins TSL. Reynor wins esl masters fall and douyu cup. I don't know man, I'm expecting a person who supposedly dominates to do more than just trade tournaments with the other zergs. What is Serral’s average placement across this span though? And his overall win rate? There have definitely been other Zergs who’ve had better years in that span for sure, but Serral’s probably a lock for top 3, certainly amongst Zergs anyway for most if not all of the years across that period. I don’t think all but the most myopic Serral fanboys have ever said he’s been the outright best every year 2018 onwards, but he’s perpetually in the top 5 for results every year. And he’s two absolute monster years in 2018 and 2024 There must be an example but I can’t think of one to mind where Serral didn’t at least place Ro8, which is just ridiculous stuff
For sure his winrate and placements were high in the vast majority of tournaments since 2018. Off the top of my head the counterexample that comes to mind is when he didn't make esl finals 'cause he didn't place deep enough in esl europe. This is probably confirmation bias on my end though 'cause I feel like I've seen a fair number of people make that very claim: outright best since 2018. And I think the word "dominate" just didn't sit right. When I think domination I think you're the best and it's not even close. If it's competitive or debatable you're not dominating
|
Northern Ireland22975 Posts
On July 25 2024 05:26 lokol4890 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 25 2024 03:59 WombaT wrote:On July 25 2024 03:40 lokol4890 wrote:On July 25 2024 01:30 PremoBeats wrote:On July 25 2024 00:49 lokol4890 wrote: The guy has been on top for 6 straight years with different map pools, patches as well as playing veterans and new talent. He adapts his play style to match the opponent (and arguably has a race that is able to do that). I don't know tbh. Too many hypotheticals to pursue... he could also be another top 20 player, who knows. I keep seeing permutations of this statement with different ranges, some people saying 6 years, some 7, some a decade (somehow). In any event I don't know what data y'all are looking at because this is just not true. Serral's best years (by far) were 2018 and 2024, but in the years in between he definitely was not continuously on top. In that same period the other top zergs have either matched him or outperformed him. Wonder why serral's peak also coincided with rogue, dark, and reynor peaking. Surely it cannot be balance I don't know about others, but I looked at match win rates versus Koreans in given years (Serral has by far the best statistics in 6 years 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2024, Maru is the best in 2021), the Aligulac HoF (all years), percentage of being rank 1 (all years), tournament win percentages with top Korean participation (Serral wins 6 out of 7 years, 2021 was won by Rogue by 3% in comparison to Serral. Maru was down another roughly 4% that year), average placements in tournaments with top Korean participation (Serral wins 6 out of 7 years, some of which are by a large margin, Maru 2021 very closely). I didn't calculate the efficiency score for every year as that was more a life-time metric. He had the most Premier Tournaments wins in 2018, 2019, 2020 (tied with Maru and Rogue), 2021 (tied with Rogue), 2022, 2023 and (so far) 2024. So which statistics are you using to say that other Zerg toped him? Quick example: 2019. Serral participates in 6 premier international events: iem, wesg, rog assembly summer, gsl vs the world, hsc, and blizzcon. Lost iem, lost wesg, lost rog, and lost blizzcon. Soo wins iem, dark wins blizzcon. In that year dark also wins super tournament and a gsl. So you have serral with a gsl vs the world and hsc to his name, and dark with a gsl proper, a super tournament, and blizzcon. In what universe did serral dominate 2019? E: let's try 2020 because why not. Serral wins esl masters summer and winter. Rogue wins iem and a gsl. Dark wins TSL. Reynor wins esl masters fall and douyu cup. I don't know man, I'm expecting a person who supposedly dominates to do more than just trade tournaments with the other zergs. What is Serral’s average placement across this span though? And his overall win rate? There have definitely been other Zergs who’ve had better years in that span for sure, but Serral’s probably a lock for top 3, certainly amongst Zergs anyway for most if not all of the years across that period. I don’t think all but the most myopic Serral fanboys have ever said he’s been the outright best every year 2018 onwards, but he’s perpetually in the top 5 for results every year. And he’s two absolute monster years in 2018 and 2024 There must be an example but I can’t think of one to mind where Serral didn’t at least place Ro8, which is just ridiculous stuff For sure his winrate and placements were high in the vast majority of tournaments since 2018. Off the top of my head the counterexample that comes to mind is when he didn't make esl finals 'cause he didn't place deep enough in esl europe. This is probably confirmation bias on my end though 'cause I feel like I've seen a fair number of people make that very claim: outright best since 2018. And I think the word "dominate" just didn't sit right. When I think domination I think you're the best and it's not even close. If it's competitive or debatable you're not dominating
Yeah I think it’s fair to not use the dominant label, for reasons you outline.
|
On July 25 2024 05:26 lokol4890 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 25 2024 03:59 WombaT wrote:On July 25 2024 03:40 lokol4890 wrote:On July 25 2024 01:30 PremoBeats wrote:On July 25 2024 00:49 lokol4890 wrote: The guy has been on top for 6 straight years with different map pools, patches as well as playing veterans and new talent. He adapts his play style to match the opponent (and arguably has a race that is able to do that). I don't know tbh. Too many hypotheticals to pursue... he could also be another top 20 player, who knows. I keep seeing permutations of this statement with different ranges, some people saying 6 years, some 7, some a decade (somehow). In any event I don't know what data y'all are looking at because this is just not true. Serral's best years (by far) were 2018 and 2024, but in the years in between he definitely was not continuously on top. In that same period the other top zergs have either matched him or outperformed him. Wonder why serral's peak also coincided with rogue, dark, and reynor peaking. Surely it cannot be balance I don't know about others, but I looked at match win rates versus Koreans in given years (Serral has by far the best statistics in 6 years 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2024, Maru is the best in 2021), the Aligulac HoF (all years), percentage of being rank 1 (all years), tournament win percentages with top Korean participation (Serral wins 6 out of 7 years, 2021 was won by Rogue by 3% in comparison to Serral. Maru was down another roughly 4% that year), average placements in tournaments with top Korean participation (Serral wins 6 out of 7 years, some of which are by a large margin, Maru 2021 very closely). I didn't calculate the efficiency score for every year as that was more a life-time metric. He had the most Premier Tournaments wins in 2018, 2019, 2020 (tied with Maru and Rogue), 2021 (tied with Rogue), 2022, 2023 and (so far) 2024. So which statistics are you using to say that other Zerg toped him? Quick example: 2019. Serral participates in 6 premier international events: iem, wesg, rog assembly summer, gsl vs the world, hsc, and blizzcon. Lost iem, lost wesg, lost rog, and lost blizzcon. Soo wins iem, dark wins blizzcon. In that year dark also wins super tournament and a gsl. So you have serral with a gsl vs the world and hsc to his name, and dark with a gsl proper, a super tournament, and blizzcon. In what universe did serral dominate 2019? E: let's try 2020 because why not. Serral wins esl masters summer and winter. Rogue wins iem and a gsl. Dark wins TSL. Reynor wins esl masters fall and douyu cup. I don't know man, I'm expecting a person who supposedly dominates to do more than just trade tournaments with the other zergs. What is Serral’s average placement across this span though? And his overall win rate? There have definitely been other Zergs who’ve had better years in that span for sure, but Serral’s probably a lock for top 3, certainly amongst Zergs anyway for most if not all of the years across that period. I don’t think all but the most myopic Serral fanboys have ever said he’s been the outright best every year 2018 onwards, but he’s perpetually in the top 5 for results every year. And he’s two absolute monster years in 2018 and 2024 There must be an example but I can’t think of one to mind where Serral didn’t at least place Ro8, which is just ridiculous stuff For sure his winrate and placements were high in the vast majority of tournaments since 2018. Off the top of my head the counterexample that comes to mind is when he didn't make esl finals 'cause he didn't place deep enough in esl europe. This is probably confirmation bias on my end though 'cause I feel like I've seen a fair number of people make that very claim: outright best since 2018. And I think the word "dominate" just didn't sit right. When I think domination I think you're the best and it's not even close. If it's competitive or debatable you're not dominating
Maybe it's because it's how I mean it, but when I see people say that I tend to give them the benefit of the doubt that they mean "Serral's 2018–Present (win-rate, placements, tournament wins) is the best" rather than "in every day since 2018 he's always been the best" because the latter is so clearly wrong that it seems ridiculous that anyone would seriously argue it. Maybe I'm too generous.
|
On July 25 2024 12:33 Mumei wrote:
Maybe it's because it's how I mean it, but when I see people say that I tend to give them the benefit of the doubt that they mean "Serral's 2018–Present (win-rate, placements, tournament wins) is the best" rather than "in every day since 2018 he's always been the best" because the latter is so clearly wrong that it seems ridiculous that anyone would seriously argue it. Maybe I'm too generous.
FWIW I think it's fair. He's had the best 6.5 years out of anyone, but he's definitely not had the best year each and every year if we're talking results. Dark's 2019's been mentioned and it was a helluva year. I think Maru had a better 2020? Yet it doesn't seem unfair to say Serral's been on top for 6 years considering how much better he's been in aggregate than anyone else during this timeframe. It's like someone saying Maru's had a bad 2024 because he's only won 1 GSL and a small Chinese tourny - his overall placings have been absolute god-tier and if it weren't for that Finnish player having an even better year everyone would be going on about Maru right now (even if his placements didn't change).
|
On July 25 2024 03:40 lokol4890 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 25 2024 01:30 PremoBeats wrote:On July 25 2024 00:49 lokol4890 wrote: The guy has been on top for 6 straight years with different map pools, patches as well as playing veterans and new talent. He adapts his play style to match the opponent (and arguably has a race that is able to do that). I don't know tbh. Too many hypotheticals to pursue... he could also be another top 20 player, who knows. I keep seeing permutations of this statement with different ranges, some people saying 6 years, some 7, some a decade (somehow). In any event I don't know what data y'all are looking at because this is just not true. Serral's best years (by far) were 2018 and 2024, but in the years in between he definitely was not continuously on top. In that same period the other top zergs have either matched him or outperformed him. Wonder why serral's peak also coincided with rogue, dark, and reynor peaking. Surely it cannot be balance I don't know about others, but I looked at match win rates versus Koreans in given years (Serral has by far the best statistics in 6 years 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2024, Maru is the best in 2021), the Aligulac HoF (all years), percentage of being rank 1 (all years), tournament win percentages with top Korean participation (Serral wins 6 out of 7 years, 2021 was won by Rogue by 3% in comparison to Serral. Maru was down another roughly 4% that year), average placements in tournaments with top Korean participation (Serral wins 6 out of 7 years, some of which are by a large margin, Maru 2021 very closely). I didn't calculate the efficiency score for every year as that was more a life-time metric. He had the most Premier Tournaments wins in 2018, 2019, 2020 (tied with Maru and Rogue), 2021 (tied with Rogue), 2022, 2023 and (so far) 2024. So which statistics are you using to say that other Zerg toped him? Quick example: 2019. Serral participates in 6 premier international events: iem, wesg, rog assembly summer, gsl vs the world, hsc, and blizzcon. Lost iem, lost wesg, lost rog, and lost blizzcon. Soo wins iem, dark wins blizzcon. In that year dark also wins super tournament and a gsl. So you have serral with a gsl vs the world and hsc to his name, and dark with a gsl proper, a super tournament, and blizzcon. In what universe did serral dominate 2019? E: let's try 2020 because why not. Serral wins esl masters summer and winter. Rogue wins iem and a gsl. Dark wins TSL. Reynor wins esl masters fall and douyu cup. I don't know man, I'm expecting a person who supposedly dominates to do more than just trade tournaments with the other zergs.
Ok, so you only look at one metric (Premier Tournament wins), which is the hardest one to achieve and at which Serral has the best participation-win-rate except 2021.
You further discount a couple of Serral's wins whereas Dark is able to keep his (the argument is probably region lock, versus "open"... open in brackets as it was a Korean offline event with offline qualifiers). I am not saying that Serral dominated this year, but I mean.. the guy won 4 Premier Tournaments. It ain't like he was slacking either.
In 2021 he won 3 and had 4 runner-ups.
Btw, I am not saying that Serral dominated every year through Premier Tournaments wins. But did you give any thought to the other metrics I laid out before?
Aligulac ranks
Average placement in tournaments with top Koreans
Match win rates vs top Koreans
Tournament participation-win-rate with top Koreans
Because tournaments aren't the only thing one can analyze and in these metrics he distances/dominates everyone in most years (except the few I listed in my quote above).
|
On July 25 2024 03:40 lokol4890 wrote:
Quick example: 2019. Serral participates in 6 premier international events: iem, wesg, rog assembly summer, gsl vs the world, hsc, and blizzcon. Lost iem, lost wesg, lost rog, and lost blizzcon. Soo wins iem, dark wins blizzcon. In that year dark also wins super tournament and a gsl. So you have serral with a gsl vs the world and hsc to his name, and dark with a gsl proper, a super tournament, and blizzcon. In what universe did serral dominate 2019?
E: let's try 2020 because why not. Serral wins esl masters summer and winter. Rogue wins iem and a gsl. Dark wins TSL. Reynor wins esl masters fall and douyu cup. I don't know man, I'm expecting a person who supposedly dominates to do more than just trade tournaments with the other zergs.
So here is a list from Serral:s results from 2019:
08.12.19 1st Premier StarCraft II: NationWars 2019
24.11.19 1st Premier HomeStory Cup XX
01.11.19 3rd-4th Premier 2019 WCS Global Finals
08.09.19 1st Premier 2019 WCS Fall
24.08.19 1st Major 2019 WCS Fall: Europe Qualifier
18.08.19 1st Premier 2019 GSL vs the World
18.08.19 2nd Premier 2019 GSL vs. The World: Teams Competition
03.08.19 3rd- th Premier Assembly Summer 2019
14.07.19 2nd Premier 2019 WCS Summer
30.06.19 1st Major HomeStory Cup XIX
22.06.19 1st Major 2019 WCS Summer: Europe Qualifier
19.05.19 1st Premier 2019 WCS Spring
04.05.19 1st Major 2019 WCS Spring: Europe Qualifier
07.04.19 2nd Premier 2019 WCS Winter Europe
17.03.19 2nd Premier World Electronic Sports Games 2018
03.03.19 1st Week. (Basic) EU Ladder Heroes/2019/February Week 4
02.03.19 5th-8th Premier IEM Season XIII - Katowice
24.02.19 1st Week. (Basic) EU Ladder Heroes/2019/February Week 3
So, I dont know about dominating but isnt this almost that ? Who else puts up with that kind of results or even near ? After 2018 there were already speculations about who can beat him after 42 (or something) matches undefeated. 2019 and 2020 were bit more "slump" years for Serral, and still he was favourite to win every single tournament he went to. In this list, he has 11 number one spots, 4 number two spots, 2 places at 3-4th and one whole finish at 5-8th. Quickly calculated his average tournament spot is 1,94sh or something. His tournament winrate was over 60%. Yeah, yeah, they arent same value and all, but you get the point.
Yeah, he maybe hasnt been the ultimately best player of every single year, but he has still been the man to beat whole that time. His winrates have been constantly up at 70-80% vs. best of the field. THATS what I call Dominating.
|
On July 26 2024 14:33 Starcloud wrote:Show nested quote +On July 25 2024 03:40 lokol4890 wrote:
Quick example: 2019. Serral participates in 6 premier international events: iem, wesg, rog assembly summer, gsl vs the world, hsc, and blizzcon. Lost iem, lost wesg, lost rog, and lost blizzcon. Soo wins iem, dark wins blizzcon. In that year dark also wins super tournament and a gsl. So you have serral with a gsl vs the world and hsc to his name, and dark with a gsl proper, a super tournament, and blizzcon. In what universe did serral dominate 2019?
E: let's try 2020 because why not. Serral wins esl masters summer and winter. Rogue wins iem and a gsl. Dark wins TSL. Reynor wins esl masters fall and douyu cup. I don't know man, I'm expecting a person who supposedly dominates to do more than just trade tournaments with the other zergs.
So here is a list from Serral:s results from 2019: 08.12.19 1st Premier StarCraft II: NationWars 2019 24.11.19 1st Premier HomeStory Cup XX 01.11.19 3rd-4th Premier 2019 WCS Global Finals 08.09.19 1st Premier 2019 WCS Fall 24.08.19 1st Major 2019 WCS Fall: Europe Qualifier 18.08.19 1st Premier 2019 GSL vs the World 18.08.19 2nd Premier 2019 GSL vs. The World: Teams Competition 03.08.19 3rd- th Premier Assembly Summer 2019 14.07.19 2nd Premier 2019 WCS Summer 30.06.19 1st Major HomeStory Cup XIX 22.06.19 1st Major 2019 WCS Summer: Europe Qualifier 19.05.19 1st Premier 2019 WCS Spring 04.05.19 1st Major 2019 WCS Spring: Europe Qualifier 07.04.19 2nd Premier 2019 WCS Winter Europe 17.03.19 2nd Premier World Electronic Sports Games 2018 03.03.19 1st Week. (Basic) EU Ladder Heroes/2019/February Week 4 02.03.19 5th-8th Premier IEM Season XIII - Katowice 24.02.19 1st Week. (Basic) EU Ladder Heroes/2019/February Week 3 So, I dont know about dominating but isnt this almost that ? Who else puts up with that kind of results or even near ? After 2018 there were already speculations about who can beat him after 42 (or something) matches undefeated. 2019 and 2020 were bit more "slump" years for Serral, and still he was favourite to win every single tournament he went to. In this list, he has 11 number one spots, 4 number two spots, 2 places at 3-4th and one whole finish at 5-8th. Quickly calculated his average tournament spot is 1,94sh or something. His tournament winrate was over 60%. Yeah, yeah, they arent same value and all, but you get the point. Yeah, he maybe hasnt been the ultimately best player of every single year, but he has still been the man to beat whole that time. His winrates have been constantly up at 70-80% vs. best of the field. THATS what I call Dominating.
Well yeah, I think this really is a bit nitpicking. I think in 2019 Dark was better and 2020-2021 Serral also wasn't THE best player, but I mean - we also say Mvp dominated WoL despite him only really dominating 2011.
I think Serral is dominating since 2018 is a pretty fair statement
|
On July 26 2024 17:46 Charoisaur wrote:Show nested quote +On July 26 2024 14:33 Starcloud wrote:On July 25 2024 03:40 lokol4890 wrote:
Quick example: 2019. Serral participates in 6 premier international events: iem, wesg, rog assembly summer, gsl vs the world, hsc, and blizzcon. Lost iem, lost wesg, lost rog, and lost blizzcon. Soo wins iem, dark wins blizzcon. In that year dark also wins super tournament and a gsl. So you have serral with a gsl vs the world and hsc to his name, and dark with a gsl proper, a super tournament, and blizzcon. In what universe did serral dominate 2019?
E: let's try 2020 because why not. Serral wins esl masters summer and winter. Rogue wins iem and a gsl. Dark wins TSL. Reynor wins esl masters fall and douyu cup. I don't know man, I'm expecting a person who supposedly dominates to do more than just trade tournaments with the other zergs.
So here is a list from Serral:s results from 2019: 08.12.19 1st Premier StarCraft II: NationWars 2019 24.11.19 1st Premier HomeStory Cup XX 01.11.19 3rd-4th Premier 2019 WCS Global Finals 08.09.19 1st Premier 2019 WCS Fall 24.08.19 1st Major 2019 WCS Fall: Europe Qualifier 18.08.19 1st Premier 2019 GSL vs the World 18.08.19 2nd Premier 2019 GSL vs. The World: Teams Competition 03.08.19 3rd- th Premier Assembly Summer 2019 14.07.19 2nd Premier 2019 WCS Summer 30.06.19 1st Major HomeStory Cup XIX 22.06.19 1st Major 2019 WCS Summer: Europe Qualifier 19.05.19 1st Premier 2019 WCS Spring 04.05.19 1st Major 2019 WCS Spring: Europe Qualifier 07.04.19 2nd Premier 2019 WCS Winter Europe 17.03.19 2nd Premier World Electronic Sports Games 2018 03.03.19 1st Week. (Basic) EU Ladder Heroes/2019/February Week 4 02.03.19 5th-8th Premier IEM Season XIII - Katowice 24.02.19 1st Week. (Basic) EU Ladder Heroes/2019/February Week 3 So, I dont know about dominating but isnt this almost that ? Who else puts up with that kind of results or even near ? After 2018 there were already speculations about who can beat him after 42 (or something) matches undefeated. 2019 and 2020 were bit more "slump" years for Serral, and still he was favourite to win every single tournament he went to. In this list, he has 11 number one spots, 4 number two spots, 2 places at 3-4th and one whole finish at 5-8th. Quickly calculated his average tournament spot is 1,94sh or something. His tournament winrate was over 60%. Yeah, yeah, they arent same value and all, but you get the point. Yeah, he maybe hasnt been the ultimately best player of every single year, but he has still been the man to beat whole that time. His winrates have been constantly up at 70-80% vs. best of the field. THATS what I call Dominating. Well yeah, I think this really is a bit nitpicking. I think in 2019 Dark was better and 2020-2021 Serral also wasn't THE best player, but I mean - we also say Mvp dominated WoL despite him only really dominating 2011. I think Serral is dominating since 2018 is a pretty fair statement
Yeah, and even between MVP's GSL wins during his year of dominance, there was Nestea winning GSLs and MC too.
So very fair to say that Serral has been dominating 2018-2024 in a general sense. Not necessarily each and every year but overall.
I think Serral's achievements during 2019 are pretty good, but a lot of it feels inflated by qualifiers into the next stage of the tournament, etc. I would also say Dark had a more convincing 2019 just cus the stuff he won was more high profile.
|
On July 27 2024 14:27 Yoshi Kirishima wrote:Show nested quote +On July 26 2024 17:46 Charoisaur wrote:On July 26 2024 14:33 Starcloud wrote:On July 25 2024 03:40 lokol4890 wrote:
Quick example: 2019. Serral participates in 6 premier international events: iem, wesg, rog assembly summer, gsl vs the world, hsc, and blizzcon. Lost iem, lost wesg, lost rog, and lost blizzcon. Soo wins iem, dark wins blizzcon. In that year dark also wins super tournament and a gsl. So you have serral with a gsl vs the world and hsc to his name, and dark with a gsl proper, a super tournament, and blizzcon. In what universe did serral dominate 2019?
E: let's try 2020 because why not. Serral wins esl masters summer and winter. Rogue wins iem and a gsl. Dark wins TSL. Reynor wins esl masters fall and douyu cup. I don't know man, I'm expecting a person who supposedly dominates to do more than just trade tournaments with the other zergs.
So here is a list from Serral:s results from 2019: 08.12.19 1st Premier StarCraft II: NationWars 2019 24.11.19 1st Premier HomeStory Cup XX 01.11.19 3rd-4th Premier 2019 WCS Global Finals 08.09.19 1st Premier 2019 WCS Fall 24.08.19 1st Major 2019 WCS Fall: Europe Qualifier 18.08.19 1st Premier 2019 GSL vs the World 18.08.19 2nd Premier 2019 GSL vs. The World: Teams Competition 03.08.19 3rd- th Premier Assembly Summer 2019 14.07.19 2nd Premier 2019 WCS Summer 30.06.19 1st Major HomeStory Cup XIX 22.06.19 1st Major 2019 WCS Summer: Europe Qualifier 19.05.19 1st Premier 2019 WCS Spring 04.05.19 1st Major 2019 WCS Spring: Europe Qualifier 07.04.19 2nd Premier 2019 WCS Winter Europe 17.03.19 2nd Premier World Electronic Sports Games 2018 03.03.19 1st Week. (Basic) EU Ladder Heroes/2019/February Week 4 02.03.19 5th-8th Premier IEM Season XIII - Katowice 24.02.19 1st Week. (Basic) EU Ladder Heroes/2019/February Week 3 So, I dont know about dominating but isnt this almost that ? Who else puts up with that kind of results or even near ? After 2018 there were already speculations about who can beat him after 42 (or something) matches undefeated. 2019 and 2020 were bit more "slump" years for Serral, and still he was favourite to win every single tournament he went to. In this list, he has 11 number one spots, 4 number two spots, 2 places at 3-4th and one whole finish at 5-8th. Quickly calculated his average tournament spot is 1,94sh or something. His tournament winrate was over 60%. Yeah, yeah, they arent same value and all, but you get the point. Yeah, he maybe hasnt been the ultimately best player of every single year, but he has still been the man to beat whole that time. His winrates have been constantly up at 70-80% vs. best of the field. THATS what I call Dominating. Well yeah, I think this really is a bit nitpicking. I think in 2019 Dark was better and 2020-2021 Serral also wasn't THE best player, but I mean - we also say Mvp dominated WoL despite him only really dominating 2011. I think Serral is dominating since 2018 is a pretty fair statement Yeah, and even between MVP's GSL wins during his year of dominance, there was Nestea winning GSLs and MC too. So very fair to say that Serral has been dominating 2018-2024 in a general sense. Not necessarily each and every year but overall. I think Serral's achievements during 2019 are pretty good, but a lot of it feels inflated by qualifiers into the next stage of the tournament, etc. I would also say Dark had a more convincing 2019 just cus the stuff he won was more high profile.
Alright, if we're just literally changing the meaning of words to fit our points, there is not much I can say. Dictionary defs pretty clearly equate dominate with being the best. No idea how you guys feel this confident reshaping the meaning of that word. This feels so weird. And funnily enough premobeats himself doubled down on dominating as synonym for best, e.g., noting serral's winrates against koreans since 2018. So this is the position you guys are in: you're at the same time arguing dominating somehow doesn't mean being the best in order to defend criticism of premobeats' analysis while premobeats's own words undercut your position. Wild
|
On July 24 2024 21:57 UnLarva wrote:Show nested quote +On July 24 2024 21:50 njleslu2024 wrote:On July 24 2024 11:09 lokol4890 wrote:On July 24 2024 02:01 onPHYRE wrote:On July 24 2024 01:08 lokol4890 wrote:On July 24 2024 00:34 onPHYRE wrote:On July 23 2024 12:35 onPHYRE wrote:I think this discussion can be best summarized by “If you use numbers and qualitative data, it’s clear Serral is the GOAT.” If you want to discuss things that cannot be quantified then the only real competitor to Serral is Maru and depending on what you value in a GOAT and what metrics are used, you could chose either player. However if you look at all of the metrics, Serral wins most of them, which explains why the community and current pros from a pure numbers standpoint back Serral much more often. The whole vocal minority argument comes in to play here.. I would honestly be so curious to see the answer to a true poll of people choosing who they think is the GOAT. I genuinely think it would be Serral at 65-70% of the community. Poll: Who is the GOAT?(Vote): Serral
(Vote): Maru
Well these poll results pretty accurately summarize what I strongly suspected. Not a HUGE sample size, but the overall numbers line up with what I’ve seen since the Miz list dropped. What's the sample size? E: just for kicks, went ahead and found a sample size calculator at 95% confidence level. Assuming a population of 100, the sample size would need to be 80; for 1000 it'd be 278; and for 10,000 it'd be 370 Currently at 56. Serral is at nearly 80%… Dominating just like every other measurable metric. Again, your sample is not big enough to even represent a population of 100 people. But sure, let's throw common sense out the door and use this as another metric for serral being the goat... Lowko did a poll on X, including 27 thousands people and Serral still has 80%, more sample size more advantage for Serral While I assume that result is highly indicative, it is also selection biased toward foreign scene: it can be expected that there are relatively more Serral fans participating to the poll than there are Maru fans (due the forum) compared to the true ratio between them (what ever it maybe be).
I think people don’t realize that many Koreans also think Serral is the GOAT. Any time a Korean pro has been asked, their answer has been Serral in recent years. Now I don’t have a good metric or point of data for the actual Korean fans, but while the ratios might skew a bit more Maru/Inno than Serral, I would imagine Serral still sits at 65%+. I would be curious to see an actual poll from a Korean SC2 forum. Keep in mind that Lowko’s does capture Koreans fans as well, even if the ratio is a bit off.
On July 24 2024 14:39 PremoBeats wrote:Show nested quote +On July 24 2024 00:04 ejozl wrote:
So the reason for me that Serral isn't necessarily the goat is this:
For me tournament result is the only objective measure of balance, at the end of the day, it doesn't matter how much you crush the other guy, it is about taking home the trophy. The results should be how you leave your mark on the game.
Rogue punching above his weight class is just as impressive, as were it the case that he always played at this level, even on ladder. This was the same for Stats, the best Toss of LotV, he was infamously low on the ladder. It was the opposite for sOs, everyone and their mother feared sOs, but when it came to the tournament, in LotV that is, he would falter.
You didn't counter the balance issue properly, not that you HAVE to address this issue, you could say that if you look at it objectively, this means that you should disregard balance.
But honestly, you said that if you remove Maru and Serral the biggest outliers. that the game would be pretty damned balance. If you remove herO, Protoss as a race didn't win GSL, or a higher tier caliber tournament since, after 2017. The list of players who did, excluding herO, Maru and Serral are: Oliveira, Solar, Cure, Gumiho, SoO, Scarlett, INnoVation, Dark, Reynor, Rogue and TY. 11 players and no Protoss. I wouldn't fault a person for simply excluding 2018+ years out of the GOAT debate, simply because it holds little value to be the GOAT of a 2x race game.
The argument for Serral not playing the most competitive era is tough. If SC2 almost died, but the online competitive scene continued with Maxpax dominating it for 50 years. People would argue that maxpax would be the GOAT, but the time that he played would've been simply too different, so who's really to say.
Let me write the timeline for GOATage:
MC/MVP -> Life -> sOs -> INnoVation -> Maru -> Serral
You can argue some names should be here or there, but the overarching picture is like this.
So, if we say that the end of HotS is the peak of competitiveness then that removes MC/MVP. So now it is a spectrum of how much you value the time from after the Kespa abandonment.
If you say life is meaningless after Kespa, Life is your GOAT, if you still value the era up and including to 2017, then INnoVation is your GOAT, then there is 2020+ where Blizzcon wasn't there anymore and so on and depending on how much you value the different scenes you could put either Life, sOs, INnoVation, Maru or Serral as your GOAT. If you do put Serral, Maru and Rogue in the top 3, as most people do, with possibly Dark, or INnoVation as the 4th spot, then I would consider Serral the GOAT, since the scene that includes Serral, Rogue and Maru is from 2017+. And wouldn't this in turn make 2017+ the most valuable era?, you could argue that Life couldn't be the GOAT because he didn't get to witness the Serral, Rogue and Maru peaks. So based on your observation that Protoss has no wins in high tier tournaments: Does that mean that neither a Terran nor Zerg can be GOAT? But you realize that even under the assumption that Protoss could not win (assuming T and Z were more or less balanced), a T or Z would still have to beat the other race and mirrors? I am gathering more data on balance and era, so give me some time. I'll definitely address this better next time. Show nested quote +On July 23 2024 12:35 onPHYRE wrote:I think this discussion can be best summarized by “If you use numbers and qualitative data, it’s clear Serral is the GOAT.” If you want to discuss things that cannot be quantified then the only real competitor to Serral is Maru and depending on what you value in a GOAT and what metrics are used, you could chose either player. However if you look at all of the metrics, Serral wins most of them, which explains why the community and current pros from a pure numbers standpoint back Serral much more often. The whole vocal minority argument comes in to play here.. I would honestly be so curious to see the answer to a true poll of people choosing who they think is the GOAT. I genuinely think it would be Serral at 65-70% of the community. Poll: Who is the GOAT?(Vote): Serral
(Vote): Maru
In my opinion the poll is layed out wrongly. Because most people who are against Serral mostly argue about era. Meaning even if their GOAT was Mvp, they would much more likely settle with Maru. From what I learned (having written a couple of pieces on reddit and one here): Life, Mvp and Maru are the names people drop. I will prepare another article, where I will prepare Life's and Mvp's numbers in perfect alignment with my previous list and will also add some data to more accurately pin down era-variance. But for the next poll: Put these 4 on... It is my intuition that Maru's votes will go down much more than Serral's (or people, as they now have read this will troll me and still vote Maru )
I wanted to handicap Serral just like you did.. but got the same results. He dominates every category.
|
On July 27 2024 20:19 rwala wrote:
That’s a lot of words merely to concede you have no conceptual justification for your metrics or weighting for them, and are doubling down on excluding Proleague while including the weak Euro regionals (to be “fair” to Serral, again your words).
At this point honestly you can say you’re being “objective” one thousand times but no one other than the most die hard Serral fans will believe you.
I provided one framework to help you think about a path to redeeming some credibility after the extremely biased and subjective original article, nonsensical football analogies to justify it, etc. It’s really then up to you whether you want to take that path. Good luck!
Do you seriously not understand that giving different weighting to metrics where the same person is on top every time and another player at times doesn't even occupy 2nd spot and is placed 4th at times, does not make any sense? According to the metrics I evaluated, Maru and Serral share 1st place in one metric, while Serral has more in the others.. no amount of weighting will change that Serral comes out on top, that is why a weighting was superfluous.
After I included team matches ( I still don't think it is a good way of looking at it), Maru comes out on top in one metric. I will actually give you a weighting example later to show you how much we have to weigh Maru's achievements even more to make him somewhat come out on par (the same way I did with INnoVation and the era-amplifier, where INno would need a 300% boost to par Maru and Serral).
It is obvious who the extremely biased reader is, when you can't even acknowledge how often Serral was nerfed, yet him still coming out ahead by a milestone in most metrics, Maru often not being 2nd and that looking at team results the way I did was actually pretty sensible (especially as before I nerfed Serral heavily) AND doesn't really influence the end result all that much.
I said time and again, that I will find a fairer way to compare eras and I will include team results in an update, although the difficulties listed below need to be thought about (and I bet they won't please people who don't want to see Serral on top despite all other nerfs he received).
On July 27 2024 22:06 Charoisaur wrote:
Yeah the rhethoric he uses with doing mental gymnastics in every category to twist it like he's "nerfing" Serral is hilarious.
While at the same time nerfing Maru/Inno heavily by disregarding Proleague and barely talking about it hoping we wouldn't notice
On July 27 2024 21:59 rwala wrote:
Yes the result was preordained by the choice of metrics and not-so-subtle decisions like excluding achievements related to Proleague while including less impressive achievements like results in Euro regionals.
By the way I’d be careful not to concede too much with your “nerfing” and “buffing” of tournament results/era handicaps because if folks decide that they don’t care about things like Aligulac rating and only care about tournament results you will have inadvertently anointed someone other than Serral as the GOAT. This is also the peril of not justifying or weighting your metrics.
Do you two realize that
1. That this only affects one of seven metrics?
2. That if I have to include Proleague tournament wins I also have to include it in tournament win percentage which will in relation nerf the Koreans more than Serral?
3. I conceded the Proleague issue for the tournament score, although I still think that it is utterly illogical to include team achievements in an individual ranking (and not include it in other metrics, nerfing Koreans).
4. This concession leads to Maru being slightly ahead in one of 7 rankings and wouldn't change the end result at all?
Now consider the following to get a feeling on how sensible the topic team achievements is:
What if a GOAT contender never played in a team?
In a metric that needs you to probably live in Korea?
Or someone was in a team that dragged him down?
Or lifted him up?
How about the occurrence when one player played only a couple of games but lost the majority?
How to weight team efforts and individual ones? Because - this is mostly not true for the GOAT contenders as they more often than not lifted their teams up - what about the fact that some players who play for big teams score points because they were lifted up by their team mates? Rex for example never won a Premier Tournament by himself but one with JAGW. Is it thus really fair to include them in a 1:1 ratio?
Do you see that Proleague-results were included in the match win rates, where individual scoring could be included perfectly without much thought?
Some thoughts in regards to the Euro regionals:
Should I simply discount them all together according to you two?
Is it fair that Serral simply gets axed all of his individual efforts from Europe?
Does he get some kind of trade-of for the invested time?
Is heavily penalizing Euro regionals in the tournament-multiplier not enough?
There are so many questions and new weightings that are subjective and would need to be figured out when including team redults in the tournament score, that I think I took the most sensible approach. You two act as if this decision comes out of the blue, don't mention the incredible nerfs Serral received and act like this Proleague issue would change anything in the end. Seriously, the bias is dripping out of each and every sentence at this moment, if you can't appreciate the honest thought I gave this whole topic.
Further, as we already know, this is a tiny portion of one metric, which will not change the end result by much, although it will of course affect all players with shorter careers and ones that did not play in Korea (Mvp will probably score a lower tournament score in relation as well... just saying )
PS: rwala said that "At this point honestly you can say you’re being “objective” one thousand times but no one other than the most die hard Serral fans will believe you. "
Some of the people defending my article didn't strike me as die-hard fans. Just saying, as this probably says more about how you look at the article in contrast to my supposed intentions writing it or the perceived flaws (Which I don't deny exist... I never said it was perfect).
PPS: I would like to say to you two, that I want to continue here without accusations floating around that imply any preordained winner or implications that make it seem like I tried to sneak in or tinker with any of the weightings or results (then I will shut up about bias as well). These are subjective, unprovable accusations and to be honest, I don't see the necessity to rely on such tactics. If you see issues with the decisions or weightings I made, simply point them out. I described in detail my thought processes and weighting considerations to avoid exactly such accusations.
Cheers!
You two (as well as anyone else) are invited to join me in a discussion about weighing the team results.
|
United States1756 Posts
On July 28 2024 14:30 PremoBeats wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2024 20:19 rwala wrote:
That’s a lot of words merely to concede you have no conceptual justification for your metrics or weighting for them, and are doubling down on excluding Proleague while including the weak Euro regionals (to be “fair” to Serral, again your words).
At this point honestly you can say you’re being “objective” one thousand times but no one other than the most die hard Serral fans will believe you.
I provided one framework to help you think about a path to redeeming some credibility after the extremely biased and subjective original article, nonsensical football analogies to justify it, etc. It’s really then up to you whether you want to take that path. Good luck!
Do you seriously not understand that giving different weighting to metrics where the same person is on top every time and another player at times doesn't even occupy 2nd spot and is placed 4th at times, does not make any sense? According to the metrics I evaluated, Maru and Serral share 1st place in one metric, while Serral has more in the others.. no amount of weighting will change that Serral comes out on top, that is why a weighting was superfluous. After I included team matches ( I still don't think it is a good way of looking at it), Maru comes out on top in one metric. I will actually give you a weighting example later to show you how much we have to weigh Maru's achievements even more to make him somewhat come out on par (the same way I did with INnoVation and the era-amplifier, where INno would need a 300% boost to par Maru and Serral). It is obvious who the extremely biased reader is, when you can't even acknowledge how often Serral was nerfed, yet him still coming out ahead by a milestone in most metrics, Maru often not being 2nd and that looking at team results the way I did was actually pretty sensible (especially as before I nerfed Serral heavily) AND doesn't really influence the end result all that much. I said time and again, that I will find a fairer way to compare eras and I will include team results in an update, although the difficulties listed below need to be thought about (and I bet they won't please people who don't want to see Serral on top despite all other nerfs he received). Show nested quote +On July 27 2024 22:06 Charoisaur wrote:
Yeah the rhethoric he uses with doing mental gymnastics in every category to twist it like he's "nerfing" Serral is hilarious.
While at the same time nerfing Maru/Inno heavily by disregarding Proleague and barely talking about it hoping we wouldn't notice
Show nested quote +On July 27 2024 21:59 rwala wrote:
Yes the result was preordained by the choice of metrics and not-so-subtle decisions like excluding achievements related to Proleague while including less impressive achievements like results in Euro regionals.
By the way I’d be careful not to concede too much with your “nerfing” and “buffing” of tournament results/era handicaps because if folks decide that they don’t care about things like Aligulac rating and only care about tournament results you will have inadvertently anointed someone other than Serral as the GOAT. This is also the peril of not justifying or weighting your metrics. Do you two realize that 1. That this only affects one of seven metrics? 2. That if I have to include Proleague tournament wins I also have to include it in tournament win percentage which will in relation nerf the Koreans more than Serral? 3. I conceded the Proleague issue for the tournament score, although I still think that it is utterly illogical to include team achievements in an individual ranking (and not include it in other metrics, nerfing Koreans). 4. This concession leads to Maru being slightly ahead in one of 7 rankings and wouldn't change the end result at all? Now consider the following to get a feeling on how sensible the topic team achievements is: What if a GOAT contender never played in a team? In a metric that needs you to probably live in Korea? Or someone was in a team that dragged him down? Or lifted him up? How about the occurrence when one player played only a couple of games but lost the majority? How to weight team efforts and individual ones? Because - this is mostly not true for the GOAT contenders as they more often than not lifted their teams up - what about the fact that some players who play for big teams score points because they were lifted up by their team mates? Rex for example never won a Premier Tournament by himself but one with JAGW. Is it thus really fair to include them in a 1:1 ratio? Do you see that Proleague-results were included in the match win rates, where individual scoring could be included perfectly without much thought? Some thoughts in regards to the Euro regionals: Should I simply discount them all together according to you two? Is it fair that Serral simply gets axed all of his individual efforts from Europe? Does he get some kind of trade-of for the invested time? Is heavily penalizing Euro regionals in the tournament-multiplier not enough? There are so many questions and new weightings that are subjective and would need to be figured out when including team redults in the tournament score, that I think I took the most sensible approach. You two act as if this decision comes out of the blue, don't mention the incredible nerfs Serral received and act like this Proleague issue would change anything in the end. Seriously, the bias is dripping out of each and every sentence at this moment, if you can't appreciate the honest thought I gave this whole topic. Further, as we already know, this is a tiny portion of one metric, which will not change the end result by much, although it will of course affect all players with shorter careers and ones that did not play in Korea (Mvp will probably score a lower tournament score in relation as well... just saying ) PS: rwala said that "At this point honestly you can say you’re being “objective” one thousand times but no one other than the most die hard Serral fans will believe you. " Some of the people defending my article didn't strike me as die-hard fans. Just saying, as this probably says more about how you look at the article in contrast to my supposed intentions writing it or the perceived flaws (Which I don't deny exist... I never said it was perfect). PPS: I would like to say to you two, that I want to continue here without accusations floating around that imply any preordained winner or implications that make it seem like I tried to sneak in or tinker with any of the weightings or results (then I will shut up about bias as well). These are subjective, unprovable accusations and to be honest, I don't see the necessity to rely on such tactics. If you see issues with the decisions or weightings I made, simply point them out. I described in detail my thought processes and weighting considerations to avoid exactly such accusations. Cheers! You two (as well as anyone else) are invited to join me in a discussion about weighing the team results.
Proleague, specifically, was worth a lot in my evaluation. Proleague only existed for a few years, but it was the top priority for players on KeSPA teams and there's a ton of overlap between successful Proleague players (Zest, Maru, Inno, Stats, sOs etc) and those who had stellar individual careers.
|
On July 28 2024 21:12 Mizenhauer wrote:Show nested quote +On July 28 2024 14:30 PremoBeats wrote:On July 27 2024 20:19 rwala wrote:
That’s a lot of words merely to concede you have no conceptual justification for your metrics or weighting for them, and are doubling down on excluding Proleague while including the weak Euro regionals (to be “fair” to Serral, again your words).
At this point honestly you can say you’re being “objective” one thousand times but no one other than the most die hard Serral fans will believe you.
I provided one framework to help you think about a path to redeeming some credibility after the extremely biased and subjective original article, nonsensical football analogies to justify it, etc. It’s really then up to you whether you want to take that path. Good luck!
Do you seriously not understand that giving different weighting to metrics where the same person is on top every time and another player at times doesn't even occupy 2nd spot and is placed 4th at times, does not make any sense? According to the metrics I evaluated, Maru and Serral share 1st place in one metric, while Serral has more in the others.. no amount of weighting will change that Serral comes out on top, that is why a weighting was superfluous. After I included team matches ( I still don't think it is a good way of looking at it), Maru comes out on top in one metric. I will actually give you a weighting example later to show you how much we have to weigh Maru's achievements even more to make him somewhat come out on par (the same way I did with INnoVation and the era-amplifier, where INno would need a 300% boost to par Maru and Serral). It is obvious who the extremely biased reader is, when you can't even acknowledge how often Serral was nerfed, yet him still coming out ahead by a milestone in most metrics, Maru often not being 2nd and that looking at team results the way I did was actually pretty sensible (especially as before I nerfed Serral heavily) AND doesn't really influence the end result all that much. I said time and again, that I will find a fairer way to compare eras and I will include team results in an update, although the difficulties listed below need to be thought about (and I bet they won't please people who don't want to see Serral on top despite all other nerfs he received). On July 27 2024 22:06 Charoisaur wrote:
Yeah the rhethoric he uses with doing mental gymnastics in every category to twist it like he's "nerfing" Serral is hilarious.
While at the same time nerfing Maru/Inno heavily by disregarding Proleague and barely talking about it hoping we wouldn't notice
On July 27 2024 21:59 rwala wrote:
Yes the result was preordained by the choice of metrics and not-so-subtle decisions like excluding achievements related to Proleague while including less impressive achievements like results in Euro regionals.
By the way I’d be careful not to concede too much with your “nerfing” and “buffing” of tournament results/era handicaps because if folks decide that they don’t care about things like Aligulac rating and only care about tournament results you will have inadvertently anointed someone other than Serral as the GOAT. This is also the peril of not justifying or weighting your metrics. Do you two realize that 1. That this only affects one of seven metrics? 2. That if I have to include Proleague tournament wins I also have to include it in tournament win percentage which will in relation nerf the Koreans more than Serral? 3. I conceded the Proleague issue for the tournament score, although I still think that it is utterly illogical to include team achievements in an individual ranking (and not include it in other metrics, nerfing Koreans). 4. This concession leads to Maru being slightly ahead in one of 7 rankings and wouldn't change the end result at all? Now consider the following to get a feeling on how sensible the topic team achievements is: What if a GOAT contender never played in a team? In a metric that needs you to probably live in Korea? Or someone was in a team that dragged him down? Or lifted him up? How about the occurrence when one player played only a couple of games but lost the majority? How to weight team efforts and individual ones? Because - this is mostly not true for the GOAT contenders as they more often than not lifted their teams up - what about the fact that some players who play for big teams score points because they were lifted up by their team mates? Rex for example never won a Premier Tournament by himself but one with JAGW. Is it thus really fair to include them in a 1:1 ratio? Do you see that Proleague-results were included in the match win rates, where individual scoring could be included perfectly without much thought? Some thoughts in regards to the Euro regionals: Should I simply discount them all together according to you two? Is it fair that Serral simply gets axed all of his individual efforts from Europe? Does he get some kind of trade-of for the invested time? Is heavily penalizing Euro regionals in the tournament-multiplier not enough? There are so many questions and new weightings that are subjective and would need to be figured out when including team redults in the tournament score, that I think I took the most sensible approach. You two act as if this decision comes out of the blue, don't mention the incredible nerfs Serral received and act like this Proleague issue would change anything in the end. Seriously, the bias is dripping out of each and every sentence at this moment, if you can't appreciate the honest thought I gave this whole topic. Further, as we already know, this is a tiny portion of one metric, which will not change the end result by much, although it will of course affect all players with shorter careers and ones that did not play in Korea (Mvp will probably score a lower tournament score in relation as well... just saying ) PS: rwala said that "At this point honestly you can say you’re being “objective” one thousand times but no one other than the most die hard Serral fans will believe you. " Some of the people defending my article didn't strike me as die-hard fans. Just saying, as this probably says more about how you look at the article in contrast to my supposed intentions writing it or the perceived flaws (Which I don't deny exist... I never said it was perfect). PPS: I would like to say to you two, that I want to continue here without accusations floating around that imply any preordained winner or implications that make it seem like I tried to sneak in or tinker with any of the weightings or results (then I will shut up about bias as well). These are subjective, unprovable accusations and to be honest, I don't see the necessity to rely on such tactics. If you see issues with the decisions or weightings I made, simply point them out. I described in detail my thought processes and weighting considerations to avoid exactly such accusations. Cheers! You two (as well as anyone else) are invited to join me in a discussion about weighing the team results. Proleague, specifically, was worth a lot in my evaluation. Proleague only existed for a few years, but it was the top priority for players on KeSPA teams and there's a ton of overlap between successful Proleague players (Zest, Maru, Inno, Stats, sOs etc) and those who had stellar individual careers.
Further, the Proleague players were actively being prohibited from participating in lots of overseas tournaments to focus on Proleague. That's why the top Proleague guys have less "premier" tournament wins in that era than guys like TaeJa, Polt, MMA, MC despite being mostly better. Punishing them for that and not counting the circuit they focuses on just because it's easier doesn't make sense.
But my main problem with the article is the ridicolous rhethoric where you tried to twist it like you were nerfing Serral somehow in every statistic when that's not anywhere the case, to make him appear better. Like what, only counting vs korean winrates to enable comparibility is a Serral nerf?
Like don't get me wrong, Serral would be my top Goat pick too (even though just barely) by now but this article is just extremely biased written in favor of Serral (not necessarily the statistics which seem fine even though I disagree with some things, but the text).
|
On July 28 2024 21:51 Charoisaur wrote:
Further, the Proleague players were actively being prohibited from participating in lots of overseas tournaments to focus on Proleague. That's why the top Proleague guys have less "premier" tournament wins in that era than guys like TaeJa, Polt, MMA, MC despite being mostly better. Punishing them for that and not counting the circuit they focuses on just because it's easier doesn't make sense.
But my main problem with the article is the ridicolous rhethoric where you tried to twist it like you were nerfing Serral somehow in every statistic when that's not anywhere the case, to make him appear better. Like what, only counting vs korean winrates to enable comparibility is a Serral nerf?
Like don't get me wrong, Serral would be my top Goat pick too (even though just barely) by now but this article is just extremely biased written in favor of Serral (not necessarily the statistics which seem fine even though I disagree with some things, but the text).
Ok. Just to be clear: You didn't answer when I asked if you understand the value of Proleague in the scope of the bigger discussion, the important questions when factoring in Proleague and you simply declare that I say I nerfed Serral, although you imply that I actually didn't do so.
So I didn't do any of these?
1. Serral would have gotten a match win rate buff as the Koreans also play lower tier Koreans and qualifiers and tournaments. Serral only plays the top of the top which inflates the Korean's scores. There were inflation corrections of up to 3,96% that were not used for Serral
2. The idea to only look at match win rates versus Koreans makes sense, but is there to mostly nerf Serral (for obvious reasons, but a nerf nevertheless).
3. Looking only at prime years in this regard would have also been something to make mostly Serral's (And Maru a little bit less) success be more apparent as he simply crushed it post-2018.
4. For the tournament-win-rate I only counted Serral's tournaments with top Korean participation; again a major nerf, which made sense for the comparison, but still is a nerf, nevertheless.
5. The 50% buff for pre-2018 is of course a nerf to Serral.
6. Average place achieved was also a nerf to Serral (and Rogue) as I counted only prime years which would have made INno's and Maru's results much, much worse
7. Also a 50% buff for pre-2018 in average placements.
8.Tournament score: In relation to Miz I penalized Serral's ESL Masters and DH more and made a separate category for HomeStoryCups which also meant mostly a penalty for Serral. The upward-corrections for WESG helped Maru and INno, at the same time penalizing all other players.
9. Another 50% for pre-2018.
10. I chose a 1,5:1 1st to 2nd place ratio, instead of a much more fitting 2:1 in a GOAT debut.
11. Efficiency-score: As a dividend of tournament score this was also affected by the 50%-buff for pre-2018 which only was a penalty to Serral.
So all of these do not matter, eh? And yes, of course it is a nerf to Serral, leaving foreigners out. The same way it is an understandable nerf for Koreans in favor of comparability to not count team results (which is an even more arbitrary metric where the influence of the individual is not even perfectly demonstrable, as well as many other questions which I asked in my post before this one. Which on top is a metric that only helps one Korean against Serral but in the bigger picture doesn't do much as Serral is way too good in other metrics).
By the way.. this nerf was mentioned as a legit correction in the article. I only made the point after being attacked by you and rwala to list all things that have been detrimental to Serral.
"It is important to mention that I ONLY looked at match win rates or tournaments where top Koreans participated. I did this because of the correct notion that it would be easier for Serral to score points in these metrics as he played in tournaments that are region-locked which have heavy influence on match win rates, placement in tournaments or the percentage of won tournaments. "
Just out of curiosity: Did you find anything else besides team matches where you think I was "unfair" towards Koreans?
|
@Premobeat
Just represent those calculations without any penalties/weight added and see how much (some) people would complain then. Yes, I know it would be vain extra work. Most of your weightings, penalties are pretty good guesses for purposes to be on the safe-side, educated guesses. Yes, there are lot of arbitrary things there, but they are all set such way that Serral is the prime target to suffer from those decisions. It would be fair for Serral at least to look what those scores would look like if there are no penalties set on him.
Outrage from Maru-fans would increase at least one magnitude, if you really go on with flying the flag of fairness!!!
For example, it is very hard to defend a stance that the decline in competitiveness would be such high level that it would justify a drop to 66.7% from previous levels (100% at the peak era) in a single night that exactly happens when Serral appear as serious contender into the top competition. It is very hard to defend that level of decline within the time frame 2015-2018.
If Miz's work was the thesis, and Your's is it's anti-thesis...
Some kind of synthesis is possible when measurable and objective enough transition function emerges from the data set...
|
water is wet and serral is the best. you all trying too hard to look academic
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
