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Funny MMR system - Page 2

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Sundr
Profile Joined November 2017
34 Posts
December 01 2017 18:47 GMT
#21
Yeah, looks like system just needs time to auto-adjust. It's pretty funny, when just started I had nice winstreak until Gold league, now I'm in some brutal lose streak (around 10-15?) cause mostly matched against (real) plat/diamond opponents, then barely won match with similar newbie just as myself and BAM, I'm platinum, haha.
givebacklife
Profile Joined November 2017
2 Posts
December 01 2017 19:51 GMT
#22
im not gonna comment on what OP said but gonna use this thread to express something similar: matchmaking seems really off lately! im a little master 3 player with a very settled mmr, yet i constantly face gms or generally players way above my mmr lately. even when on a 5 game losing stream, the game just puts me vs people with 500+ more mmr than myself. I even got matches with a 6k mmr guy one time. and no, they arent offracing or anything, its legit and its annoying. whats up with that?
Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12240 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-12-01 21:10:17
December 01 2017 21:02 GMT
#23
On December 01 2017 17:53 Sound1 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 01 2017 08:41 Excalibur_Z wrote:
Happy to explain what's happening here.

You correctly assessed that your opponent had very few games played. This means that there is a great deal of uncertainty around whether he actually belongs at 3400 MMR. It's much better for his MMR to move rapidly in this case because if it didn't, if he lost the standard (low-uncertainty) 20-21 MMR, he would take 6-7x longer to reach players of his true skill level.

He did not lose 130 MMR because of any in-game factors, or because of how badly you beat him. He lost 130 MMR for two reasons:
1. The system is not convinced that he is truly 3400-quality.
2. The system IS convinced that YOU ARE truly 3400-quality.

If you had only 6 games played and were in the same high-uncertainty situation as your opponent, his MMR would not have been as heavily impacted (he probably would have lost half that much instead). But because you have established yourself as a reliable representation of what a 3400-MMR player is, you exert greater influence over his MMR.

The fact that he is in Silver is related. His MMR is in the Platinum range, but for players who have less than ~25 games played, their league placement uses a provisional MMR that is around ~500 lower than the MMR used for actually finding opponents. The reason for this is that if he continues playing against people much better than him, losing -130 then -100 then -70 then -50..., then he would end up around 2900 MMR anyway and the Silver badge would accurately define him. If he instead started winning half his games at 3400 and defined himself as a true 3400-quality player, he would be promoted once the provisional status expires after ~25 games.

The reason he has 3400 MMR to start with is simple: that's near the median of the skill spectrum. Because skill distribution is relatively normal, it makes sense to start new players out near the middle where they have equal opportunity to rise and fall.


Thanks a lot for these explanations. MMR system still was mysterious for me.

Show nested quote +
The reason he has 3400 MMR to start with is simple: that's near the median of the skill spectrum. Because skill distribution is relatively normal, it makes sense to start new players out near the middle where they have equal opportunity to rise and fall.


It sounds very weird to me. Why no synchronise MMR with rank ? Even if you win your 5 ranking matches, you can not drop in diams league, so why MMR is not immediatly adapted to your current league (silver or gold).
Instead of that, a new player will have to play vs plats or diams (with ~3.5k MMR) while he still has difficulties to make units.
It still nonsense for me

This game is already so frustrating when you play against an opponent with equal skill level than you, I don't think it is a good idea to propose to new player some matches vs 2 leagues above players.


MMR is synchronized with rank, but not immediately. The rank you get at first represents a conservative estimate of your skill level. I mentioned before that the provisional MMR difference is around 500. That means that for your 3400-MMR opponent, the matchmaker believes with 99% certainty (or whatever the confidence threshold is) that he is not worse than 2900* based on its 5 previous data points -- his placement matches. Therefore, it's safe to assign him a league badge that reflects what the matchmaker DOES have strong confidence in: that he is Silver at the very least.

The reason for the conservative estimate is mainly because you can't downrank mid-season, but it's also just a better player experience overall. Therefore, it is better for the system to underestimate your skill than to accidentally overestimate. If your 3400-MMR opponent started out in Platinum and was doomed to eventually sink to 2900, he would still have a Platinum badge but face only Silver and Gold players (and it would also cement him in the lower half of his division in ladder points, for what that's worth). It's confusing and frustrating. However, if he starts out in Silver for his first ~25 games, then only good things happen: either he was accurately placed to start, or he gets promoted.

* This also means, of course, that the matchmaker is equally confident that he is not better than 3900. The uncertainty range applies equally in both directions.

On December 02 2017 04:51 givebacklife wrote:
im not gonna comment on what OP said but gonna use this thread to express something similar: matchmaking seems really off lately! im a little master 3 player with a very settled mmr, yet i constantly face gms or generally players way above my mmr lately. even when on a 5 game losing stream, the game just puts me vs people with 500+ more mmr than myself. I even got matches with a 6k mmr guy one time. and no, they arent offracing or anything, its legit and its annoying. whats up with that?


Usually when this happens it's because the matchmaking rules are less strict. The rules are defined by the designer. Matchmaking may be looser during off-peak hours in a region when wait times are longer, and/or near the top or bottom end of the ladder where players are less densely populated. Generally the looser matchmaking will still have reasonable restrictions, so while you might find a 500-MMR gap game (which is what, maybe an 85/15 matchup? 90/10?), you wouldn't find a 3000-MMR gap game because even the maximum search range under loose matchmaking doesn't go that far. When that happens, though, you should ask the other player how long they were waiting in the queue: it's possible they were just waiting a long time.
Moderator
roadrunner343
Profile Joined November 2010
148 Posts
December 03 2017 12:48 GMT
#24
On December 01 2017 08:18 Sundr wrote:
I think I've got around ~25 games by now and I still see some absolutely crazy stuff with MMR, like how diamond player with 7k!!! games have similar MMR as I do (around ~3,5k)? In-game it is painfully obvious that opponent plays like 50 times better than me, and we're matched in Ranked system...

Btw, a quick question: does Unranked takes into account player stats and matches you against more similar in skill opponent?


I'm sure you've also got people like me, who were previously consistently mid/high masters, but are just coming back now that SC2 is F2P. I quit playing shortly after HotS in Master league, and came back and placed in Gold/Plat (I forget which) and am now high Diamond, which feels right.

All that to say, there's more to someone's skill level than their game count. I used to consider myself pretty good. Now I suck =) And that's with over 6k games. From when I've encountered, it seems a fair amount of people who passed on HotS and LotV are giving SC2 a second chance now that it's free to play.
doihoeh f
Profile Joined March 2019
7 Posts
March 20 2019 11:48 GMT
#25
I have seen a diamond player drop 300 mmr. I was unranked but still-crazy man. I feel as if losing a match shouldn't drop you more than 70. Unless your grandmaster and you lose t unranked,then you deserve what you get.
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