On June 12 2015 08:06 brickrd wrote: it's funny how many people are quick to trash the concept of statistics and betting line anomalies as a bunch of arcane nonsense just because they don't understand it. even if you believe MKP is innocent, and even if he is, it still makes you look ignorant as fuck to just dismiss solid data from people with experience in a field you're not familiar with as useless or irrelevant. again, even if he IS INNOCENT it's still worth looking at the data and asking questions, because why would we want to be willfully ignorant or choose to ignore suggestive information?
i'm pretty sure if hillary clinton suddenly won 2016 with 85% of the vote and an official investigation concluded that there was nothing irregular about the election no one would be saying "pfffft, your statistics and probabilities don't mean anything"
I know right, even without going too much into learning it, just by following the other threads a little, in layman's terms it's pretty much: Oh noes, just before the match started a whole bunch of people placed a bet on the person at the last minute (who turned out to be the eventual winner) that it was enough to make the odds go all wonky. (Apparently like 10:1 odds)
Very good PR by Kespa but I'm still absolutely convinced MKP threw, as have others less blatantly. I guess keeping sponsors is more important than exposing match-fixers. The fact this 'committee' hasn't found one case of match-fixing (especially from Prime) makes it a joke, just Kespa's way of making it look like they're taking it seriously.
On June 11 2015 20:02 sixfour wrote: joke statement. they have zero interest in cleaning up their own house
I'm not sure what people want Kespa to do, lynch mob MKP? Vigilante justice with no due process or evidence? Think about this from their point of view, even if the head of kespa himself thinks with almost certainty that MKP threw the match just as you do, he's got no hard evidence. The BW match fixing scandal was all about hard evidence. Do you honestly think if Kespa denounced MKP as a match fixer with out actual physical evidence that it would be a net positive for the community in the short or long run? Forget about the sponsors, think about how all the players and coaches might feel, especially the ones who aren't playing in peak condition or up to fan expectations.
At best the odds and game itself is circumstantial evidence (pretty damning circumstantial evidence, but that gets you jack shit in court). We see players throw a match on his own with out any presumed outside influence due to a poor mental state, lack of understanding, or split moment frustration (literally hundreds if not thousands of examples of those games). Hell every single team kill tend to be weird as fuck and you can throw accusations of bracket rigging in any tournament. If you can't find physical evidence or financial transactions then you got nothing.
On June 12 2015 09:44 Caihead wrote: I'm not sure what people want Kespa to do, lynch mob MKP? Vigilante justice with no due process or evidence? Think about this from their point of view, even if the head of kespa himself thinks with almost certainty that MKP threw the match just as you do, he's got no hard evidence. The BW match fixing scandal was all about hard evidence. Do you honestly think if Kespa denounced MKP as a match fixer with out actual physical evidence that it would be a net positive for the community in the short or long run? Forget about the sponsors, think about how all the players and coaches might feel, especially the ones who aren't playing in peak condition or up to fan expectations.
At best the odds and game itself is circumstantial evidence (pretty damning circumstantial evidence, but that gets you jack shit in court). We see players throw a match on his own with out any presumed outside influence due to a poor mental state, lack of understanding, or split moment frustration (literally hundreds if not thousands of examples of those games). Hell every single team kill tend to be weird as fuck and you can throw accusations of bracket rigging in any tournament. If you can't find physical evidence or financial transactions then you got nothing.
pretty much this. Anyone whose has seen my posts in the other MK thread will know that I firmly believe that he threw the game based on the circumstantial evidence, however, with no hard evidence, one can't just convict MK based on what we have. In other words, there's nothing else that can be done atm.
Funny, people were complaining that Kespa wasn't doing much, ignoring the situation and were calling for an investigation in previous threads and now that Kespa has investigated and came to the conclusion that they didn't find any hard evidence, they are getting riled up about that as well. Can never please some people. Personally, I still think he threw but not going to shove him under a bus without having some hard evidence that can be used in a court of law. It's probably best to just accept things as they are and hope that if any other pros are planning to throw a match in the near future, they would reconsider that thought after this incident.
Nice to see Kespa talking a bit more. I'm really glad they are reviewing everything and gathering evidence before condemning anyone: its just sad to see people abandoning the idea that everyone is innocent until proven guilty.
On June 12 2015 09:44 Caihead wrote: I'm not sure what people want Kespa to do, lynch mob MKP? Vigilante justice with no due process or evidence? Think about this from their point of view, even if the head of kespa himself thinks with almost certainty that MKP threw the match just as you do, he's got no hard evidence. The BW match fixing scandal was all about hard evidence. Do you honestly think if Kespa denounced MKP as a match fixer with out actual physical evidence that it would be a net positive for the community in the short or long run? Forget about the sponsors, think about how all the players and coaches might feel, especially the ones who aren't playing in peak condition or up to fan expectations.
At best the odds and game itself is circumstantial evidence (pretty damning circumstantial evidence, but that gets you jack shit in court). We see players throw a match on his own with out any presumed outside influence due to a poor mental state, lack of understanding, or split moment frustration (literally hundreds if not thousands of examples of those games). Hell every single team kill tend to be weird as fuck and you can throw accusations of bracket rigging in any tournament. If you can't find physical evidence or financial transactions then you got nothing.
Pretty much, this bit is weird though:
In addition to the previous questions, TeamLiquid inquired about the role (if any) Pinnacle is playing in any investigations. KeSPA declined to comment on questions relating to this.
considering the voided bets are the strongest circumstantial evidence we have. Could mean they do this for investigative reasons (and they are actually working together with Pinnacle on this) but I dunno..
considering the voided bets are the strongest circumstantial evidence we have. Could mean they do this for investigative reasons (and they are actually working together with Pinnacle on this) but I dunno..
I loved the bit about KeSPA's newfound enthusiasm about a "member in the community that can specialist on this matter" contacting them, and how it completely contradicts the fact that as of January 2015 Pinnacle had already expressed a willingness to cooperate with KeSPA but was never contacted, and Lichter and Swoopae had both tried to get in touch with KeSPA regarding Pinnacle, but heard nothing.
This has conflict of interest written all over it. KeSPA has absolutely nothing to gain by allowing others to poke around in their affairs, and everything to lose.
There's nothing more to be done about the MKP situation, but nothing has been solved. All we can do is cross our fingers that players will be too scared to try match fixing now. Is that realistic? I doubt it.
Those asking what more we want KeSPA to do - it's pretty simple. Explain MKP's stated reasoning for the specific actions in his match, and explain the questions KeSPA asked so we can see if they were tough. Why not give us any information about their discussion with MKP? Also, why not tell us about their interaction with Pinnacle? Their investigation could not possibly be thorough without any interaction with Pinnacle.
In short, KeSPA has not given enough information to counter the stack of evidence sitting on Marine King. Essentially KeSPA has said "just trust us".
And tbh, the fact that no independent investigator was hired makes the "investigation" kind of a joke. The organization with a vested financial interest in the investigation outcome is the one that conducted the investigation.
considering the voided bets are the strongest circumstantial evidence we have. Could mean they do this for investigative reasons (and they are actually working together with Pinnacle on this) but I dunno..
I loved the bit about KeSPA's newfound enthusiasm about a "member in the community that can specialist on this matter" contacting them, and how it completely contradicts the fact that as of January 2015 Pinnacle had already expressed a willingness to cooperate with KeSPA but was never contacted, and Lichter and Swoopae had both tried to get in touch with KeSPA regarding Pinnacle, but heard nothing.
This has conflict of interest written all over it. KeSPA has absolutely nothing to gain by allowing others to poke around in their affairs, and everything to lose.
There's nothing more to be done about the MKP situation, but nothing has been solved. All we can do is cross our fingers that players will be too scared to try match fixing now. Is that realistic? I doubt it.
I guess with members of the community they refer to a non korean Pro who knows what they are talking about.Nothing against Swoopae but he is not really a sc2 community member since he does not play and only bet on games.The same with pinnacle. Kespa has not to answer to NOONE. They are what they are,and it never changed. We will have to accept their answer till a real proof is there.
On June 11 2015 13:03 ZigguratOfUr wrote: What's your point? I'm sure Alfred Dreyfus also claimed his innocence.
His point was that just because an organization like FIFA or Kespa says they aren't corrupt, they still could be.
Any time you have an internal investigation of an organization by the organization itself, it is a ridiculous situation and should be viewed as comedy as it is not serious. Anyone who understands what the term "conflict of interests" laughs at this situation.
Anyway it didn't seem like a live interview, so of course it comes off like a bunch of softball questions with indirect answers. I would have liked someone to grill this guy and get real explanations about why they can't reveal everything about the MKP situation, why they can't share replays, why it matters that people know what their committee looks for, and get some real evidence that the bets weren't shady for MKP-Byul ect.
They basically said "We investigated everything thoroughly and by the book, but we can't tell you what we did." And that doesn't mean anything.
Nice. Now please tell me who should have investigated this. And also tell me what would constitute evidence that the bets weren't shady--in fact what would constitute evidence that any given bet isn't shady.
Just because an internal investigation is terrible way to investigate anything doesn't mean I know who should have investigated it. Those are two different things, pointing out a problem and solving it.
That being said there are plenty of third party organizations they could have hired to do an investigation. The NFL hires them all the time, and then Roger Goodell looks like an idiot when they don't side with him. So he isn't hiring one for the Tom Brady appeal. Big surprise.
On June 11 2015 12:31 T.O.P. wrote: They talk tough, but why not give us some evidence that MarineKing is innocent. After watching that game, he's guilty until proven innocent in my mind.
OK - I hear what you are saying.
MarineKing at this point is guilty of: 1) Playing like a silver league 6 year old. (never being minimap aware.) 2) Refusing to learn ( that stupid triple CC build he insists on using repeatedly.) 3) Having terrible nerves and being emotionally susceptible to breakage. 4) Failing his team. 5) Disappointing his fans.
But
He is innocent of matchfixing in the eyes of KESPA.
Sepp Blatter also insisted that FIFA was clean and that they had nothing to hide.
What the does that have to do with anything?
Detective: "So sir, I have some suspicions of you, I am suspicious you committed murder..."
Guilty until proven innocent person: ...
I don't think you understand how the legal system or analogies works. Starting with the former, not everything is treated like murder. In fact, nothing but murder is.
If you get pulled over by the police and received ticket for going 96 mph when you're actually doing 65 mph in a 65 mph zone (I say this because it happened to my grandfather when I was in the car) and you challenge it in court, you'll lose if the judge wants you to, it doesn't matter what actually happened.
You're guilty if the judge says so, and they don't have to prove much (proved nothing in the case of my grandfather). Certainly not beyond a reasonable doubt.
And the reason it works like that is because if you're guilty for speeding, the loss of $150 bucks isn't life ending, so the wrongly accused (like my grandfather) don't suffer a great deal. Going to jail for life for murder is life ending, so the wrongly accused do suffer a great deal.
Now we're talking about fixing matches in a video game. While it needs more evidence than a speeding ticket to prove that he isn't automatically guilty, the burden of proof doesn't come anywhere close to murder.
So don't pretend it does.
As for the analogy, his point was that just because FIFA and Kespa say they are clean, doesn't mean they are. Especially when all we have to go by is an internal investigation.
One question for you guys that are saying KeSPA needs to consult with Pinnacle:
Is Pinnacle a Stakeholder to KeSPA? In short and at face value - I'd probably say no.
If that's the case, then it is highly unlikely that they will be working with Pinnacle.
However if they are working with them but both parties have agree to stay silent then a reason why might be because of this: How would it look if your country condemns gambling but one of your Government Departments publicly declares that they are liaising with a gambling organisation? So perhaps to not look contradictory to the public, no public announcement / declaration can be made.
Personally I don't think KeSPA is working with Pinnacle as KeSPA has shown that they don't work with foreign organisations unless there is a benefit involved to them directly (remember when Destiny host his tournament but KeSPA prevented their players from playing in it because there wasn't anything that Destiny could provide to them?)
And to you guys that are saying that KeSPA is sweeping it under the carpet to protect themselves... If they really did think MarineKing fixed but didn't want to damage the scene...what say they "forced him into retirement" as punishment?
I remember the site manager for a company I worked for had essentially cooked the books in her previous company before coming to us. When it hit the media that this woman was going to be prosecuted for fraud as a result of an audit into the other company's books; my company (which is a multinational btw - and as such I cannot name them) decided that it was in their best interest to ask this woman to resign than fire her (they could have fired her because she lied and said that she had no pending court cases when she signed her contract) which may have caused a media frenzy for us, as well as bringing unnecessary audit and tax investigation attention to us.
Similarly, I think this is a route that KeSPA would take if they were aware of their player corruption and confronted them about it without letting the greater public knowing about it. I mean hey if they went down this road it'll be all hush hush right? Since the player wouldn't admit to match-fixing and the employees wouldn't risk their jobs.
Anyway that's my 2 cents on the subject, with a little bit of food for thought. Only MarineKing (and if he did, his benefactors) knows whether he match fixed or not. And for a guy that's so emotional... if he's masked his guilt this well so far... he's probably as good of an actor as The Blade Runner (aka. Oscar Pistorius).
On June 12 2015 09:44 Caihead wrote: I'm not sure what people want Kespa to do, lynch mob MKP? Vigilante justice with no due process or evidence? Think about this from their point of view, even if the head of kespa himself thinks with almost certainty that MKP threw the match just as you do, he's got no hard evidence. The BW match fixing scandal was all about hard evidence. Do you honestly think if Kespa denounced MKP as a match fixer with out actual physical evidence that it would be a net positive for the community in the short or long run? Forget about the sponsors, think about how all the players and coaches might feel, especially the ones who aren't playing in peak condition or up to fan expectations.
At best the odds and game itself is circumstantial evidence (pretty damning circumstantial evidence, but that gets you jack shit in court). We see players throw a match on his own with out any presumed outside influence due to a poor mental state, lack of understanding, or split moment frustration (literally hundreds if not thousands of examples of those games). Hell every single team kill tend to be weird as fuck and you can throw accusations of bracket rigging in any tournament. If you can't find physical evidence or financial transactions then you got nothing.
In addition to the previous questions, TeamLiquid inquired about the role (if any) Pinnacle is playing in any investigations. KeSPA declined to comment on questions relating to this.
considering the voided bets are the strongest circumstantial evidence we have. Could mean they do this for investigative reasons (and they are actually working together with Pinnacle on this) but I dunno..
voided bets aren't evidences. That's the main problem it makes everything highly sucpicious but you can't prove the match-fixing only with voided bets.
On June 12 2015 09:44 Caihead wrote: I'm not sure what people want Kespa to do, lynch mob MKP? Vigilante justice with no due process or evidence? Think about this from their point of view, even if the head of kespa himself thinks with almost certainty that MKP threw the match just as you do, he's got no hard evidence. The BW match fixing scandal was all about hard evidence. Do you honestly think if Kespa denounced MKP as a match fixer with out actual physical evidence that it would be a net positive for the community in the short or long run? Forget about the sponsors, think about how all the players and coaches might feel, especially the ones who aren't playing in peak condition or up to fan expectations.
At best the odds and game itself is circumstantial evidence (pretty damning circumstantial evidence, but that gets you jack shit in court). We see players throw a match on his own with out any presumed outside influence due to a poor mental state, lack of understanding, or split moment frustration (literally hundreds if not thousands of examples of those games). Hell every single team kill tend to be weird as fuck and you can throw accusations of bracket rigging in any tournament. If you can't find physical evidence or financial transactions then you got nothing.
Pretty much, this bit is weird though:
In addition to the previous questions, TeamLiquid inquired about the role (if any) Pinnacle is playing in any investigations. KeSPA declined to comment on questions relating to this.
considering the voided bets are the strongest circumstantial evidence we have. Could mean they do this for investigative reasons (and they are actually working together with Pinnacle on this) but I dunno..
voided bets aren't evidences. That's the main problem it makes everything highly sucpicious but you can't prove the match-fixing only with voided bets.
Hence the "circumstantial".
It is very strange if KeSPA isn't cooperating with Pinnacle concerning the investigation because Pinnacle manages the accounts of people who, allegedly, knew the outcome of at least seven(!) matches so far.
The most scrutinized game so far is MarineKing vs ByuL due to the voided bets and the nature of the game. Team MVP has made a statement claiming that the loss was not a thrown game. However, the VOD alone has given the community a reason to doubt that conclusion. MarineKing clearly saw a dot on his mini map. Did he go there using his POV? What was MarineKing doing during the time the creep/spinecrawler was visible on the mini map? Is there any reason for MarineKing not to check his mini map? Did MarineKing do anything out of the ordinary during the rush? Please walk us through your analysis of the replay.
Stringing questions together like this is the most surefire way to get almost none of them answered.
Good job on TL for making this happen. Sadly the answers don't convince me of anything. What I get from all this is "we know there are individuals who have tried and will try to match fix" and yet they haven't done anything serious yet. Their "council of specialists" sounds a bit like bs to me really.
It is very strange if KeSPA isn't cooperating with Pinnacle concerning the investigation because Pinnacle manages the accounts of people who, allegedly, knew the outcome of at least seven(!) matches so far.
You'd think that, but Kespa's a domestic organisation - they probably think all they need to do is to try to ensure that things look OK to the domestic audience. Why would they collaborate with a company that's offering services that, while perfectly legal in the markets they offer it, is illegal in Korea and is only going to point to obvious issues, when they can just ignore them and not have to make difficult decisions?
It is very strange if KeSPA isn't cooperating with Pinnacle concerning the investigation because Pinnacle manages the accounts of people who, allegedly, knew the outcome of at least seven(!) matches so far.
You'd think that, but Kespa's a domestic organisation - they probably think all they need to do is to try to ensure that things look OK to the domestic audience. Why would they collaborate with a company that's offering services that, while perfectly legal in the markets they offer it, is illegal in Korea and is only going to point to obvious issues, when they can just ignore them and not have to make difficult decisions?
Well that's obviously the question. But if so, it's not going to work. South Korea is not.. well, North Korea.
I don't think betting being illegal has anything to with it btw
On June 11 2015 12:31 T.O.P. wrote: They talk tough, but why not give us some evidence that MarineKing is innocent. After watching that game, he's guilty until proven innocent in my mind.
OK - I hear what you are saying.
MarineKing at this point is guilty of: 1) Playing like a silver league 6 year old. (never being minimap aware.) 2) Refusing to learn ( that stupid triple CC build he insists on using repeatedly.) 3) Having terrible nerves and being emotionally susceptible to breakage. 4) Failing his team. 5) Disappointing his fans.
But
He is innocent of matchfixing in the eyes of KESPA.
Sepp Blatter also insisted that FIFA was clean and that they had nothing to hide.
What the does that have to do with anything?
Detective: "So sir, I have some suspicions of you, I am suspicious you committed murder..."
Guilty until proven innocent person: ...
And the reason it works like that is because if you're guilty for speeding, the loss of $150 bucks isn't life ending, so the wrongly accused (like my grandfather) don't suffer a great deal. Going to jail for life for murder is life ending, so the wrongly accused do suffer a great deal.
Now we're talking about fixing matches in a video game. While it needs more evidence than a speeding ticket to prove that he isn't automatically guilty, the burden of proof doesn't come anywhere close to murder.
considering the voided bets are the strongest circumstantial evidence we have. Could mean they do this for investigative reasons (and they are actually working together with Pinnacle on this) but I dunno..
I loved the bit about KeSPA's newfound enthusiasm about a "member in the community that can specialist on this matter" contacting them, and how it completely contradicts the fact that as of January 2015 Pinnacle had already expressed a willingness to cooperate with KeSPA but was never contacted, and Lichter and Swoopae had both tried to get in touch with KeSPA regarding Pinnacle, but heard nothing.
This has conflict of interest written all over it. KeSPA has absolutely nothing to gain by allowing others to poke around in their affairs, and everything to lose.
There's nothing more to be done about the MKP situation, but nothing has been solved. All we can do is cross our fingers that players will be too scared to try match fixing now. Is that realistic? I doubt it.
I guess with members of the community they refer to a non korean Pro who knows what they are talking about.Nothing against Swoopae but he is not really a sc2 community member since he does not play and only bet on games.The same with pinnacle. Kespa has not to answer to NOONE. They are what they are,and it never changed. We will have to accept their answer till a real proof is there.
For what its worth i do play and have lurked tl since sc1; but im not a masters plus player and as such im not qualified to comment on the thought process of progamers during matches; that said as a diamond id have done a better job trying to defend byuls all in than mkp did given the info available at the time. Someone like huk or kane would be perfect.
EPT
