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On April 16 2015 00:07 TheDwf wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2015 23:50 The_Red_Viper wrote:On April 15 2015 23:46 Rekrul wrote:On April 15 2015 23:25 Swoopae wrote:On April 15 2015 23:22 LongShot27 wrote:On April 15 2015 23:21 Swoopae wrote:On April 15 2015 23:20 LongShot27 wrote:On April 15 2015 23:17 bananafone wrote:On April 15 2015 22:46 LongShot27 wrote:On April 15 2015 22:43 Swoopae wrote:
[quote]
This is why match fixing will continue. If we don't care, the game is dead. If we do care, we can apply pressure on Kespa to investigate. A few articles, a few tweets, it doesn't take much effort to actually do something about it. No I don't care because this wasn't match fixing, nothing in this match was suspect whatsoever but this godforsaken excuse for a community is believing a bunch of gamblers over their common sense. If you we're to throw a match how would you do it? Clearly a not very obvious way would be good. Everyone who has ever played starcraft have probably thrown lots of games by accident and subsequently raged. Throwing games in a non-suspect fashion isn't hard and it's done all the time by people trying their best to do the exact opposite. This community is not using stupid excuses to witch hunt and forgetting about common sense. At this point probability answers the question for you. I'd suggest you go pick up a book about statistics and probability if you don't understand what is going on with the bet voiding. To simplify massively and make it easy to understand; each of these voided bets can be seen as an extraodinary event (like rolling ten sixes in a row with a normal die). In and of themselves the voided bets are very suspicious, but its hard to conclude that something weird is definetely going on. The same thing is true for the die example. Rolling ten sixes in a row is going to happen if you roll enough times, its just how probability works. However probability also says that if it happens enough times within a short span of time then maybe its time to check if the die is loaded. If someone rolls ten sixes in a row, goes to the toilet, comes back and rolls ten sixes in a row again you'll start to suspect that something is going on. Especially if you had money on that not happening. That is just common sense. "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." Wake the fuck up. You. Have. Zero. Proof. Whatsoever. No, there is plenty of proof, you're just ignoring it because you don't understand it. I'm done. Everyone has already made up their mind and there is no reason to argue anymore. You've made up your mind without looking objectively at evidence. That's fine, you're entitled to your opinion, but your opinion is objectively wrong. I mean, i'm doing my best to help save the Korean Esports scene before it's too late but if everyone wants to pretend the problem doesn't exist, then there's nothing more I can do. As Huk said, the longer this goes on before it's exposed the more likely it is that it'll kill the scene altogether rather than result in the suspension of the matchfixing players. Well atleast we now know why Swoopae keeps posting the same thing over and over and over and over again to the point where it becomes monotonous drivel, to SAVE ESPORTS! I am not quite sure what your side is tbh. I guess it's kinda "meh whatever" ? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/starcraft-2/481281-pinnacle-voids-byul-vs-marineking-match?page=8#152
Nah i know.
I am just curious what in his opinion should happen now.
Imo there are only really 3 options:
1. let's ignore it cause we don't want to risk the end of korean sc2
2. let's force korean entities to investigate, even if that means korean sc2 could be gone
3. i don't care at all
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No one in this thread is going to force anyone to do anything lol. korean bettors are not shaking in their boots because of a TL thread
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On April 16 2015 00:15 The_Red_Viper wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2015 00:07 TheDwf wrote:On April 15 2015 23:50 The_Red_Viper wrote:On April 15 2015 23:46 Rekrul wrote:On April 15 2015 23:25 Swoopae wrote:On April 15 2015 23:22 LongShot27 wrote:On April 15 2015 23:21 Swoopae wrote:On April 15 2015 23:20 LongShot27 wrote:On April 15 2015 23:17 bananafone wrote:On April 15 2015 22:46 LongShot27 wrote:
[quote]
No I don't care because this wasn't match fixing, nothing in this match was suspect whatsoever but this godforsaken excuse for a community is believing a bunch of gamblers over their common sense. If you we're to throw a match how would you do it? Clearly a not very obvious way would be good. Everyone who has ever played starcraft have probably thrown lots of games by accident and subsequently raged. Throwing games in a non-suspect fashion isn't hard and it's done all the time by people trying their best to do the exact opposite. This community is not using stupid excuses to witch hunt and forgetting about common sense. At this point probability answers the question for you. I'd suggest you go pick up a book about statistics and probability if you don't understand what is going on with the bet voiding. To simplify massively and make it easy to understand; each of these voided bets can be seen as an extraodinary event (like rolling ten sixes in a row with a normal die). In and of themselves the voided bets are very suspicious, but its hard to conclude that something weird is definetely going on. The same thing is true for the die example. Rolling ten sixes in a row is going to happen if you roll enough times, its just how probability works. However probability also says that if it happens enough times within a short span of time then maybe its time to check if the die is loaded. If someone rolls ten sixes in a row, goes to the toilet, comes back and rolls ten sixes in a row again you'll start to suspect that something is going on. Especially if you had money on that not happening. That is just common sense. "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." Wake the fuck up. You. Have. Zero. Proof. Whatsoever. No, there is plenty of proof, you're just ignoring it because you don't understand it. I'm done. Everyone has already made up their mind and there is no reason to argue anymore. You've made up your mind without looking objectively at evidence. That's fine, you're entitled to your opinion, but your opinion is objectively wrong. I mean, i'm doing my best to help save the Korean Esports scene before it's too late but if everyone wants to pretend the problem doesn't exist, then there's nothing more I can do. As Huk said, the longer this goes on before it's exposed the more likely it is that it'll kill the scene altogether rather than result in the suspension of the matchfixing players. Well atleast we now know why Swoopae keeps posting the same thing over and over and over and over again to the point where it becomes monotonous drivel, to SAVE ESPORTS! I am not quite sure what your side is tbh. I guess it's kinda "meh whatever" ? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/starcraft-2/481281-pinnacle-voids-byul-vs-marineking-match?page=8#152 Nah i know. I am just curious what in his opinion should happen now. Imo there are only really 3 options: 1. let's ignore it cause we don't want to risk the end of korean sc2 2. let's force korean entities to investigate, even if that means korean sc2 could be gone 3. i don't care at all
I came to the conclusion that it was your #3
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On April 15 2015 22:22 Swoopae wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2015 22:10 Gwavajuice wrote:
Fact 1 : it's not someone who betted a lot of money, it's some people that betted some amount of money, said amount being enough to move the scales on game 1.
Fact 2 : Pinacle runs a business and wants esport betting to become a good banch of activity. The last thing they want is a scandal. What they want is to tell their customer : 'it is safe, it is legit, we're protecting you'
Fact 3 : there is no secret algorithm that automatically dectect a fraud in a betting line, at best an automated process spots wierd movements and in the end it's a human brain (the trader in chief -that Jonathan ‘DarKFoRcE’ Belke guy- I would suppose?) that decides if it's safe to keep the bet open or if it has to be voided.
Fact 4 : Pinacle pre-emtively canceld all bets of Prime just because they though they are weak and poor and likely to fall into match fixing.
Fact 5 : if Pinacle doesn't provide the list and amount of betters to KeSPA, GOM or korean authorities, nothing will happen, ever. The CS;GO scandal only was discovered when betters could be linked to the cheating team.
Fact 6 : Creator fucking won the whole series
In Pinacle's PR guy interview, the big line was 'the question is not 'is it possible?' but 'is it likely''
So my question is : how likely is it that Pinacle is just protecting their business by just voiding anything that is not usual, instead of taking any risk? Pinnacle have offered to share their information with Kespa multiple times. The map in question for fixing was Map 1, what happens in maps 2-5 is irrelevant for the purposes of this thread.
The Esports market forms a semi negligible portion of Pinnacle's overall marketshare. I'm confident it's less than 1% and doesn't affect their bottom line at allMatch fixing resulting in bets being cancelled will scare more players away from Esports betting. Pinnacle isn't doing this for their bottom line at all, they're doing it to protect their customers from fraud.
don't be so sure though....
Q : The whole eSports scene is growing rapidly and more and more players have become professionals in the last couple of years. There are people who believe that in 10 to 20 years eSports might be bigger than conventional ball games. Do you agree?
A: I would say that depends a lot on what conventional ball game we are talking about  . Will it be bigger than Soccer (or Football, as most of the World says)? Definitely not. But it could definitely get bigger than some of the smaller/medium sports. In fact, we are already offering higher limits on Pro-League, GSL, LCS and OGN The Champions than we do on national Volleyball leagues, Darts or Snooker – just to name a few examples. Our belief in eSports and its potential for growth is reflected in our offering more than any other book, and the adjoining belief that by hosting events and offering markets, we’re contributing to that growth.
soucre
Pinnacle is about bets, not about the thing people bet on, if it can offer good odds, if it gives some good arbitrage opportunities (arbitrage opportunities is something Pinnacle is famous for afaik) it's good businees for them... They would offer bets on snail racing if enough people were interested in snail races.
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On April 16 2015 00:17 Deathstar wrote:
No one in this thread is going to force anyone to do anything lol. korean bettors are not shaking in their boots because of a TL thread
Hey, we're up to at least, like, four threads at this point!
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Betting in Korea is illegal, but still happens. That means that the korean police can't stop it. Illegal online betting kills eSports - Korean police kills eSports. Time to riot !
BTW, if match-fixing is so rampant in Korea, that means that other eSports are guilty of it too. I mean, SC2 is a midget compared to LoL, the betting interest there should be even bigger. The new BW tournaments shouldn't be out of question too.
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Another 10-20 pages of nothing probably
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I'm not sure how this constitutes as proof that soulkey was match fixing. Maps have a huge impact on bo1s in sc2. So I don't its that unusual to bet that x player will win on x map but not win the series. For example, if Cure was playing herO in a bo3 and the first map is catellena, I don't think it would be strange for people to bet that cure wins the first map but loses the series.
I'll concur that I don't know PvZ well enough to determine if Protoss is that favored enough on King Sejong Station with zergs having nerfed swarmhosts for Creator to be a 3 to 1 favourite.
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On April 16 2015 00:26 Pr0wler wrote:
BTW, if match-fixing is so rampant in Korea, that means that other eSports are guilty of it too. I mean, SC2 is a midget compared to LoL, the betting interest there should be even bigger. The new BW tournaments shouldn't be out of question too.
I'd imagine fixing in a 1v1 game is more probable than in a team game.
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At this point I don't know what I'd prefer :
The game being cleaned of these matchfixes, and dying in Korea because of than, the world following soon after, or,
Keeping the status-co, match-fixing spreading more and more but keeping SC2 Korea articifially alive till spectactor get bored of fixed games.
Anyway, with the evidence we got, it's pretty obvious the issue is here, but how do we solve it ? I don't know.
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Is pinnacle owned by savior? sounds like a revenge plot to a esports movie.
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On April 16 2015 00:35 rotta wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2015 00:26 Pr0wler wrote:
BTW, if match-fixing is so rampant in Korea, that means that other eSports are guilty of it too. I mean, SC2 is a midget compared to LoL, the betting interest there should be even bigger. The new BW tournaments shouldn't be out of question too. I'd imagine fixing in a 1v1 game is more probable than in a team game.
IIRC there already was proven match fixing in korean lol a while ago.
One of the players tried to suicide after it.
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On April 16 2015 00:35 Faust852 wrote:
At this point I don't know what I'd prefer :
The game being cleaned of these matchfixes, and dying in Korea because of than, the world following soon after, or,
Keeping the status-co, match-fixing spreading more and more but keeping SC2 Korea articifially alive till spectactor get bored of fixed games.
Anyway, with the evidence we got, it's pretty obvious the issue is here, but how do we solve it ? I don't know.
I think the right answer is obvious really. The true fan should never allow matchfixing no matter what. The later they take action against it the more likely it is for the game to die becaus of it.
I'd rather stop watching now after a big drama than watch how the scene dies slowly while it gets more and more corrupted and everyone involved knows it and does nothing. That would be fucking sad. There's always foreign championships... and other games I guess ><
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On April 16 2015 00:14 sAsImre wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2015 23:21 Swoopae wrote:On April 15 2015 23:20 LongShot27 wrote:On April 15 2015 23:17 bananafone wrote:On April 15 2015 22:46 LongShot27 wrote:On April 15 2015 22:43 Swoopae wrote:On April 15 2015 22:41 LongShot27 wrote:
I just don't care anymore This is why match fixing will continue. If we don't care, the game is dead. If we do care, we can apply pressure on Kespa to investigate. A few articles, a few tweets, it doesn't take much effort to actually do something about it. No I don't care because this wasn't match fixing, nothing in this match was suspect whatsoever but this godforsaken excuse for a community is believing a bunch of gamblers over their common sense. If you we're to throw a match how would you do it? Clearly a not very obvious way would be good. Everyone who has ever played starcraft have probably thrown lots of games by accident and subsequently raged. Throwing games in a non-suspect fashion isn't hard and it's done all the time by people trying their best to do the exact opposite. This community is not using stupid excuses to witch hunt and forgetting about common sense. At this point probability answers the question for you. I'd suggest you go pick up a book about statistics and probability if you don't understand what is going on with the bet voiding. To simplify massively and make it easy to understand; each of these voided bets can be seen as an extraodinary event (like rolling ten sixes in a row with a normal die). In and of themselves the voided bets are very suspicious, but its hard to conclude that something weird is definetely going on. The same thing is true for the die example. Rolling ten sixes in a row is going to happen if you roll enough times, its just how probability works. However probability also says that if it happens enough times within a short span of time then maybe its time to check if the die is loaded. If someone rolls ten sixes in a row, goes to the toilet, comes back and rolls ten sixes in a row again you'll start to suspect that something is going on. Especially if you had money on that not happening. That is just common sense. "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." Wake the fuck up. You. Have. Zero. Proof. Whatsoever. No, there is plenty of proof, you're just ignoring it because you don't understand it. and you don't understand what proof means. Obviously there is match fixing going on since it plagued everything (Champion's League and WC in football) but the amount of proof is so small that nothing gets done in any sport. Main problem is that betting is a cancer for any competitive activity.
No mate, you don't understand.
If I post next week's lottery numbers today and they turn out to be right, it's one hell of a lucky guess. But when it happens 2 weeks in a row, or 3 or 4 weeks, it becomes proof that I somehow know the lottery numbers beforehand and the lottery machine is rigged. This is what is happening in Korean sc2 scene.
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On April 16 2015 00:33 royalroadweed wrote:
I'm not sure how this constitutes as proof that soulkey was match fixing. Maps have a huge impact on bo1s in sc2. So I don't its that unusual to bet that x player will win on x map but not win the series. For example, if Cure was playing herO in a bo3 and the first map is catellena, I don't think it would be strange for people to bet that cure wins the first map but loses the series.
I'll concur that I don't know PvZ well enough to determine if Protoss is that favored enough on King Sejong Station with zergs having nerfed swarmhosts for Creator to be a 3 to 1 favourite.
We are talking about 25% underdog to win a series becoming 75% favorite to win map1. I am not sure how good you are with the %'s and stuff, but implying that blizzard's maps are THAT imbalanced is kind of silly.
Also, the betting was done way before the map info became availible, i am pretty sure.
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On April 16 2015 00:44 maGicc wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2015 00:33 royalroadweed wrote:
I'm not sure how this constitutes as proof that soulkey was match fixing. Maps have a huge impact on bo1s in sc2. So I don't its that unusual to bet that x player will win on x map but not win the series. For example, if Cure was playing herO in a bo3 and the first map is catellena, I don't think it would be strange for people to bet that cure wins the first map but loses the series.
I'll concur that I don't know PvZ well enough to determine if Protoss is that favored enough on King Sejong Station with zergs having nerfed swarmhosts for Creator to be a 3 to 1 favourite. We are talking about 25% underdog to win a series becoming 75% favorite to win map1. I am not sure how good you are with the %'s and stuff, but implying that blizzard's maps are THAT imbalanced is kind of silly. Also, the betting was done way before the map info became availible, i am pretty sure.
I know enough to realize that Creator wasn't a 25% underdog to win the series >.>
If the bets were made before the maps were public, then yes it is very suspicious and soulkey may be a match fixer.
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On April 16 2015 00:44 Jarree wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2015 00:14 sAsImre wrote:On April 15 2015 23:21 Swoopae wrote:On April 15 2015 23:20 LongShot27 wrote:On April 15 2015 23:17 bananafone wrote:On April 15 2015 22:46 LongShot27 wrote:On April 15 2015 22:43 Swoopae wrote:On April 15 2015 22:41 LongShot27 wrote:
I just don't care anymore This is why match fixing will continue. If we don't care, the game is dead. If we do care, we can apply pressure on Kespa to investigate. A few articles, a few tweets, it doesn't take much effort to actually do something about it. No I don't care because this wasn't match fixing, nothing in this match was suspect whatsoever but this godforsaken excuse for a community is believing a bunch of gamblers over their common sense. If you we're to throw a match how would you do it? Clearly a not very obvious way would be good. Everyone who has ever played starcraft have probably thrown lots of games by accident and subsequently raged. Throwing games in a non-suspect fashion isn't hard and it's done all the time by people trying their best to do the exact opposite. This community is not using stupid excuses to witch hunt and forgetting about common sense. At this point probability answers the question for you. I'd suggest you go pick up a book about statistics and probability if you don't understand what is going on with the bet voiding. To simplify massively and make it easy to understand; each of these voided bets can be seen as an extraodinary event (like rolling ten sixes in a row with a normal die). In and of themselves the voided bets are very suspicious, but its hard to conclude that something weird is definetely going on. The same thing is true for the die example. Rolling ten sixes in a row is going to happen if you roll enough times, its just how probability works. However probability also says that if it happens enough times within a short span of time then maybe its time to check if the die is loaded. If someone rolls ten sixes in a row, goes to the toilet, comes back and rolls ten sixes in a row again you'll start to suspect that something is going on. Especially if you had money on that not happening. That is just common sense. "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." Wake the fuck up. You. Have. Zero. Proof. Whatsoever. No, there is plenty of proof, you're just ignoring it because you don't understand it. and you don't understand what proof means. Obviously there is match fixing going on since it plagued everything (Champion's League and WC in football) but the amount of proof is so small that nothing gets done in any sport. Main problem is that betting is a cancer for any competitive activity. No mate, you don't understand. If I post next week's lottery numbers today and they turn out to be right, it's one hell of a lucky guess. But when it happens 2 weeks in a row, or 3 or 4 weeks, it becomes proof that I somehow know the lottery numbers beforehand and the lottery machine is rigged. This is what is happening in Korean sc2 scene. Wouldn't that be called evidence? English isn't my first language, though.
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On April 16 2015 00:44 maGicc wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2015 00:33 royalroadweed wrote:
I'm not sure how this constitutes as proof that soulkey was match fixing. Maps have a huge impact on bo1s in sc2. So I don't its that unusual to bet that x player will win on x map but not win the series. For example, if Cure was playing herO in a bo3 and the first map is catellena, I don't think it would be strange for people to bet that cure wins the first map but loses the series.
I'll concur that I don't know PvZ well enough to determine if Protoss is that favored enough on King Sejong Station with zergs having nerfed swarmhosts for Creator to be a 3 to 1 favourite. We are talking about 25% underdog to win a series becoming 75% favorite to win map1. I am not sure how good you are with the %'s and stuff, but implying that blizzard's maps are THAT imbalanced is kind of silly. Also, the betting was done way before the map info became availible, i am pretty sure.
Why would anyone bet on a match without map info. If you were smartly betting you would need map info or sc would be pointless to bet on.
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On April 16 2015 00:50 royalroadweed wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2015 00:44 maGicc wrote:On April 16 2015 00:33 royalroadweed wrote:
I'm not sure how this constitutes as proof that soulkey was match fixing. Maps have a huge impact on bo1s in sc2. So I don't its that unusual to bet that x player will win on x map but not win the series. For example, if Cure was playing herO in a bo3 and the first map is catellena, I don't think it would be strange for people to bet that cure wins the first map but loses the series.
I'll concur that I don't know PvZ well enough to determine if Protoss is that favored enough on King Sejong Station with zergs having nerfed swarmhosts for Creator to be a 3 to 1 favourite. We are talking about 25% underdog to win a series becoming 75% favorite to win map1. I am not sure how good you are with the %'s and stuff, but implying that blizzard's maps are THAT imbalanced is kind of silly. Also, the betting was done way before the map info became availible, i am pretty sure. I know enough to realize that Creator wasn't a 25% underdog to win the series >.> If the bets were made before the maps were public, then yes it is very suspicious and soulkey may be a match fixer.
I read in the other thread that the odds for the series were closer to 33% Creator, 66% Soulkey? Which is almost exactly what the Aligulac predictions say for the series as well. So if they were off, it wasn't by much, I would think.
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EPT
