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On April 16 2015 00:50 royalroadweed wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2015 00:44 maGicc wrote:On April 16 2015 00:33 royalroadweed wrote:
I'm not sure how this constitutes as proof that soulkey was match fixing. Maps have a huge impact on bo1s in sc2. So I don't its that unusual to bet that x player will win on x map but not win the series. For example, if Cure was playing herO in a bo3 and the first map is catellena, I don't think it would be strange for people to bet that cure wins the first map but loses the series.
I'll concur that I don't know PvZ well enough to determine if Protoss is that favored enough on King Sejong Station with zergs having nerfed swarmhosts for Creator to be a 3 to 1 favourite. We are talking about 25% underdog to win a series becoming 75% favorite to win map1. I am not sure how good you are with the %'s and stuff, but implying that blizzard's maps are THAT imbalanced is kind of silly. Also, the betting was done way before the map info became availible, i am pretty sure. I know enough to realize that Creator wasn't a 25% underdog to win the series >.> If the bets were made before the maps were public, then yes it is very suspicious and soulkey may be a match fixer.
Sorry for being sceptical about you knowing how much of the underdog Creator "really" was.
According to the most people it was like 100% victory for Soulkey, i heard someone even saying that 'why would anyone even bet on Creator taking one single map from Soulkey"?
I am pretty sure if we had the match fixed the other way the thread would be full of "Rofl no need to fix, Creator sucks anyway. EZ pz for Soulkey, he was much better anyway, i dont see any proof of a fix!" etc.
And FYI, 25% underdog for the bo5 series means Soulkey is is 64% fav to win on each map on average. Seems pretty reasonable to me, considering Creator's shape and results.
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On April 16 2015 00:56 Exstasy wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2015 00:44 maGicc wrote:On April 16 2015 00:33 royalroadweed wrote:
I'm not sure how this constitutes as proof that soulkey was match fixing. Maps have a huge impact on bo1s in sc2. So I don't its that unusual to bet that x player will win on x map but not win the series. For example, if Cure was playing herO in a bo3 and the first map is catellena, I don't think it would be strange for people to bet that cure wins the first map but loses the series.
I'll concur that I don't know PvZ well enough to determine if Protoss is that favored enough on King Sejong Station with zergs having nerfed swarmhosts for Creator to be a 3 to 1 favourite. We are talking about 25% underdog to win a series becoming 75% favorite to win map1. I am not sure how good you are with the %'s and stuff, but implying that blizzard's maps are THAT imbalanced is kind of silly. Also, the betting was done way before the map info became availible, i am pretty sure. Why would anyone bet on a match without map info. If you were smartly betting you would need map info or sc would be pointless to bet on.
Except you know who is going to win anyway?
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On April 16 2015 00:56 Exstasy wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2015 00:44 maGicc wrote:On April 16 2015 00:33 royalroadweed wrote:
I'm not sure how this constitutes as proof that soulkey was match fixing. Maps have a huge impact on bo1s in sc2. So I don't its that unusual to bet that x player will win on x map but not win the series. For example, if Cure was playing herO in a bo3 and the first map is catellena, I don't think it would be strange for people to bet that cure wins the first map but loses the series.
I'll concur that I don't know PvZ well enough to determine if Protoss is that favored enough on King Sejong Station with zergs having nerfed swarmhosts for Creator to be a 3 to 1 favourite. We are talking about 25% underdog to win a series becoming 75% favorite to win map1. I am not sure how good you are with the %'s and stuff, but implying that blizzard's maps are THAT imbalanced is kind of silly. Also, the betting was done way before the map info became availible, i am pretty sure. Why would anyone bet on a match without map info. If you were smartly betting you would need map info or sc would be pointless to bet on.
Good question. The answer is that winning 1 map has different odds than winning a bo5. If you don't know the map, it can be any map - so in other words you are betting on the assumption they are playing the "average map" of the map pool.
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On April 16 2015 00:56 Exstasy wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2015 00:44 maGicc wrote:On April 16 2015 00:33 royalroadweed wrote:
I'm not sure how this constitutes as proof that soulkey was match fixing. Maps have a huge impact on bo1s in sc2. So I don't its that unusual to bet that x player will win on x map but not win the series. For example, if Cure was playing herO in a bo3 and the first map is catellena, I don't think it would be strange for people to bet that cure wins the first map but loses the series.
I'll concur that I don't know PvZ well enough to determine if Protoss is that favored enough on King Sejong Station with zergs having nerfed swarmhosts for Creator to be a 3 to 1 favourite. We are talking about 25% underdog to win a series becoming 75% favorite to win map1. I am not sure how good you are with the %'s and stuff, but implying that blizzard's maps are THAT imbalanced is kind of silly. Also, the betting was done way before the map info became availible, i am pretty sure. Why would anyone bet on a match without map info. If you were smartly betting you would need map info or sc would be pointless to bet on.
You dont get to know the map info, because as far as i know the players ban/pick maps just before start of the match.
Also, you are greatly exaggerating the importance of maps. If you look at the stats there is a barely a tiny % of difference in winrates, its not a huge deal.
We are not in WoL beta anymore, its not like suddenly the map1 is Steps of War and everything is going out of a window when it comes to odds.
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So if Soulkey is guilty, do you think it's possible that the reeeeallly long swarm host vs mech game was actually a "game will end after over X minutes" bet?
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On April 16 2015 01:06 Fuchsteufelswild wrote:
So if Soulkey is guilty, do you think it's possible that the reeeeallly long swarm host vs mech game was actually a "game will end after over X minutes" bet?
Seems really, really far-fetched, for the following reasons : (1) SK was on SKT1, and thus supposedly receiving a quite high salary ; (2) what happens if Reality 2-rax him or all-ins early? ; (3) it's much, much safer to all-in himself and GG out if he fails
edit : wait, additionally that game ended up with a draw. Which made me think of, how are draws in SC2 handled by Pinnacle and the likes? You can't bet on a draw, right? What happens then there is one then? I guess it's the rematch that is taken into account?
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Don't see a reason to watch SC2 anymore... only thing left to watch is what happens with this.
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Oh for fuck's sake. Can this community stop getting garbage thrown at them for 5 goddamn minutes please?
Is half the Korean scene being fucking fixed? Why the fuck should I keep giving a shit about any Korean player if half the games are thrown? I'm so fucking close to ditching the Korean scene in general, since apparenlty I'm watching WWE and not SSL and Proleague. And Soulkey of all players, it's not like he's starving and struggling for cash... can't trust anyone i guess. Fuck this shit
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On April 15 2015 23:07 Rekrul wrote:
The fixes have been in since the very beginning of SC2, the BW fixing scandal didn't deter anyone. It may have actually made the problem bigger because it was huge advertising for the fact that you can bet on these kind of things online illegal very easily in Korea (online illegal betting has grown to be HUGE in Korea since then).
Matchfixing is impossible to detect if done correctly. The only reason pinnacle is voiding these matches is because someone in the fixing ring is really dumb/greedy and leaking/selling information to too many people who then in turn tell more and more then too much money goes in on the match making it obvious to the sports books that there's a fix.
A common way that they make money off their matches is to bet on 'game will end under x minutes' (a popular prop bet on korean betting sites) and then they do an all-in build where they'll win or lose under that time frame 100%. That way they still have a chance to win and get paid win or lose.
Matchfixing exists and continues to exist in all sports and games that you place bets on, it's just always going to happen. You can't demonize KESPA for not investigating and trying to do something about it, because frankly theres really nothing they can do without putting themselves out of business. You can't really demonize players either because unless theres a huge breakthrough of evidence or admission of guilt all evidence will be circumstantial. Take MKP's loss for example; the evidence that he threw that match is overwhelming (and I believe he did throw that), but it's not 100% provable. Though I do wish KESPA would release that replay so we can see FPV if he actually looked at the spine or not.
Funnily enough, when a match gets fixed these things happen:
1. The progamer who's semi-famous and on TV but still making dogshit money actually gets some cash.
2. The sportsbooks who are the roots of these problems lose some money.
3. Vast majority of people don't notice. A small percentage of the fans who are smart enough to realize the truth are dissapointed but even most of them just enjoy the drama or don't care LOL
I think saying the vast majority of people don't notice is bullshit. Especially when threads like this get made and we're all made aware of it. In no fucking way is this good for the scene. Sure a few players make a few bucks but it makes the entire community look like a joke. The Korean scene is apparently all one big farce and nothing should be taken seriously.
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On April 16 2015 01:02 maGicc wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2015 00:56 Exstasy wrote:On April 16 2015 00:44 maGicc wrote:On April 16 2015 00:33 royalroadweed wrote:
I'm not sure how this constitutes as proof that soulkey was match fixing. Maps have a huge impact on bo1s in sc2. So I don't its that unusual to bet that x player will win on x map but not win the series. For example, if Cure was playing herO in a bo3 and the first map is catellena, I don't think it would be strange for people to bet that cure wins the first map but loses the series.
I'll concur that I don't know PvZ well enough to determine if Protoss is that favored enough on King Sejong Station with zergs having nerfed swarmhosts for Creator to be a 3 to 1 favourite. We are talking about 25% underdog to win a series becoming 75% favorite to win map1. I am not sure how good you are with the %'s and stuff, but implying that blizzard's maps are THAT imbalanced is kind of silly. Also, the betting was done way before the map info became availible, i am pretty sure. Why would anyone bet on a match without map info. If you were smartly betting you would need map info or sc would be pointless to bet on. You dont get to know the map info, because as far as i know the players ban/pick maps just before start of the match. Also, you are greatly exaggerating the importance of maps. If you look at the stats there is a barely a tiny % of difference in winrates, its not a huge deal. We are not in WoL beta anymore, its not like suddenly the map1 is Steps of War and everything is going out of a window when it comes to odds.
You're right that the balance of the game doesn't make it impossible for any player to win on any map. But maps have a huge impact if you're trying to guess who will win, taking into account map specific strategies in the mu as well as player styles in relation to the map. What makes it unlikely that people look at the favourable odds for SK overall and say creator might try to all in game 1. This is pretty much as good a guess as you can have.
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Cayman Islands330 Posts
I wonder what does the Korean audience think? If they start getting suspicious kespa and the proteams are almost obligated to make a statement for them.
also a suspision is not a proof people, take it easy
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This sounds like bullshit to me, sorry.
Soulkey is a player who has a legitimate chance at a high finish when he's on form. Why would he throw away not only his chance to get into Code S, but also at making WCS top 16 and going to Blizzcon?
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On April 16 2015 00:54 Yorbon wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2015 00:44 Jarree wrote:On April 16 2015 00:14 sAsImre wrote:On April 15 2015 23:21 Swoopae wrote:On April 15 2015 23:20 LongShot27 wrote:On April 15 2015 23:17 bananafone wrote:On April 15 2015 22:46 LongShot27 wrote:On April 15 2015 22:43 Swoopae wrote:On April 15 2015 22:41 LongShot27 wrote:
I just don't care anymore This is why match fixing will continue. If we don't care, the game is dead. If we do care, we can apply pressure on Kespa to investigate. A few articles, a few tweets, it doesn't take much effort to actually do something about it. No I don't care because this wasn't match fixing, nothing in this match was suspect whatsoever but this godforsaken excuse for a community is believing a bunch of gamblers over their common sense. If you we're to throw a match how would you do it? Clearly a not very obvious way would be good. Everyone who has ever played starcraft have probably thrown lots of games by accident and subsequently raged. Throwing games in a non-suspect fashion isn't hard and it's done all the time by people trying their best to do the exact opposite. This community is not using stupid excuses to witch hunt and forgetting about common sense. At this point probability answers the question for you. I'd suggest you go pick up a book about statistics and probability if you don't understand what is going on with the bet voiding. To simplify massively and make it easy to understand; each of these voided bets can be seen as an extraodinary event (like rolling ten sixes in a row with a normal die). In and of themselves the voided bets are very suspicious, but its hard to conclude that something weird is definetely going on. The same thing is true for the die example. Rolling ten sixes in a row is going to happen if you roll enough times, its just how probability works. However probability also says that if it happens enough times within a short span of time then maybe its time to check if the die is loaded. If someone rolls ten sixes in a row, goes to the toilet, comes back and rolls ten sixes in a row again you'll start to suspect that something is going on. Especially if you had money on that not happening. That is just common sense. "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." Wake the fuck up. You. Have. Zero. Proof. Whatsoever. No, there is plenty of proof, you're just ignoring it because you don't understand it. and you don't understand what proof means. Obviously there is match fixing going on since it plagued everything (Champion's League and WC in football) but the amount of proof is so small that nothing gets done in any sport. Main problem is that betting is a cancer for any competitive activity. No mate, you don't understand. If I post next week's lottery numbers today and they turn out to be right, it's one hell of a lucky guess. But when it happens 2 weeks in a row, or 3 or 4 weeks, it becomes proof that I somehow know the lottery numbers beforehand and the lottery machine is rigged. This is what is happening in Korean sc2 scene. Wouldn't that be called evidence? English isn't my first language, though.
Isn't it the same really?
http://www.mijnwoordenboek.nl/vertaal/NL/EN/bewijs
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Game didn't look like a throw, bunch of stuff happened with the Cannon rush in the beginning and it came out pretty even.
Couldn't it just be because Swarm Host just received a heavy nerf, Soulkey is a player that is very dependant on Swarm Hosts and King Sejong Station is together with Overgrowth THE Swarm Host maps?
Edit: Didn't realize maps was selected after the betting.
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On April 16 2015 01:24 Exstasy wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2015 01:02 maGicc wrote:On April 16 2015 00:56 Exstasy wrote:On April 16 2015 00:44 maGicc wrote:On April 16 2015 00:33 royalroadweed wrote:
I'm not sure how this constitutes as proof that soulkey was match fixing. Maps have a huge impact on bo1s in sc2. So I don't its that unusual to bet that x player will win on x map but not win the series. For example, if Cure was playing herO in a bo3 and the first map is catellena, I don't think it would be strange for people to bet that cure wins the first map but loses the series.
I'll concur that I don't know PvZ well enough to determine if Protoss is that favored enough on King Sejong Station with zergs having nerfed swarmhosts for Creator to be a 3 to 1 favourite. We are talking about 25% underdog to win a series becoming 75% favorite to win map1. I am not sure how good you are with the %'s and stuff, but implying that blizzard's maps are THAT imbalanced is kind of silly. Also, the betting was done way before the map info became availible, i am pretty sure. Why would anyone bet on a match without map info. If you were smartly betting you would need map info or sc would be pointless to bet on. You dont get to know the map info, because as far as i know the players ban/pick maps just before start of the match. Also, you are greatly exaggerating the importance of maps. If you look at the stats there is a barely a tiny % of difference in winrates, its not a huge deal. We are not in WoL beta anymore, its not like suddenly the map1 is Steps of War and everything is going out of a window when it comes to odds. You're right that the balance of the game doesn't make it impossible for any player to win on any map. But maps have a huge impact if you're trying to guess who will win, taking into account map specific strategies in the mu as well as player styles in relation to the map. What makes it unlikely that people look at the favourable odds for SK overall and say creator might try to all in game 1. This is pretty much as good a guess as you can have.
The map discussion is not really relevant here, with the current tourney system's, the players get to pick/ban, which results in a balanced map pool for both parties. Additionally, no one can know who gets to pick/ban first.
Its not like in Cs:Go, where you can often see map right in the betting line. In Sc2 betting, map 1 is just map 1, you will almost never know which map will it be.
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On April 16 2015 01:29 Penev wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2015 00:54 Yorbon wrote:On April 16 2015 00:44 Jarree wrote:On April 16 2015 00:14 sAsImre wrote:On April 15 2015 23:21 Swoopae wrote:On April 15 2015 23:20 LongShot27 wrote:On April 15 2015 23:17 bananafone wrote:On April 15 2015 22:46 LongShot27 wrote:On April 15 2015 22:43 Swoopae wrote:On April 15 2015 22:41 LongShot27 wrote:
I just don't care anymore This is why match fixing will continue. If we don't care, the game is dead. If we do care, we can apply pressure on Kespa to investigate. A few articles, a few tweets, it doesn't take much effort to actually do something about it. No I don't care because this wasn't match fixing, nothing in this match was suspect whatsoever but this godforsaken excuse for a community is believing a bunch of gamblers over their common sense. If you we're to throw a match how would you do it? Clearly a not very obvious way would be good. Everyone who has ever played starcraft have probably thrown lots of games by accident and subsequently raged. Throwing games in a non-suspect fashion isn't hard and it's done all the time by people trying their best to do the exact opposite. This community is not using stupid excuses to witch hunt and forgetting about common sense. At this point probability answers the question for you. I'd suggest you go pick up a book about statistics and probability if you don't understand what is going on with the bet voiding. To simplify massively and make it easy to understand; each of these voided bets can be seen as an extraodinary event (like rolling ten sixes in a row with a normal die). In and of themselves the voided bets are very suspicious, but its hard to conclude that something weird is definetely going on. The same thing is true for the die example. Rolling ten sixes in a row is going to happen if you roll enough times, its just how probability works. However probability also says that if it happens enough times within a short span of time then maybe its time to check if the die is loaded. If someone rolls ten sixes in a row, goes to the toilet, comes back and rolls ten sixes in a row again you'll start to suspect that something is going on. Especially if you had money on that not happening. That is just common sense. "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." Wake the fuck up. You. Have. Zero. Proof. Whatsoever. No, there is plenty of proof, you're just ignoring it because you don't understand it. and you don't understand what proof means. Obviously there is match fixing going on since it plagued everything (Champion's League and WC in football) but the amount of proof is so small that nothing gets done in any sport. Main problem is that betting is a cancer for any competitive activity. No mate, you don't understand. If I post next week's lottery numbers today and they turn out to be right, it's one hell of a lucky guess. But when it happens 2 weeks in a row, or 3 or 4 weeks, it becomes proof that I somehow know the lottery numbers beforehand and the lottery machine is rigged. This is what is happening in Korean sc2 scene. Wouldn't that be called evidence? English isn't my first language, though. Isn't it the same really? http://www.mijnwoordenboek.nl/vertaal/NL/EN/bewijs
No, you can have several pieces of evidence, but no definite proof. To prove someone is guilty you need evidence, of which the only one availably is skewed odds - this does not give any proof of either player matchfixing.
SK, Creator, both, or neither could be guilty of it as it stands. SK could have thrown the game, Creator could have been fed information somehow, either directly or by being given info from someone on SK's team beforehand, both could have agreed on how the game would be played out beforehand, or someone on SKT1 could have let betters know that SK slipped in the shower that morning or something. Right now it's suspicious, but no player can be implicated for anything.
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On April 16 2015 01:29 sitromit wrote:
This sounds like bullshit to me, sorry.
Soulkey is a player who has a legitimate chance at a high finish when he's on form. Why would he throw away not only his chance to get into Code S, but also at making WCS top 16 and going to Blizzcon?
That's because it is bullshit
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On April 16 2015 01:38 sushiman wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2015 01:29 Penev wrote:On April 16 2015 00:54 Yorbon wrote:On April 16 2015 00:44 Jarree wrote:On April 16 2015 00:14 sAsImre wrote:On April 15 2015 23:21 Swoopae wrote:On April 15 2015 23:20 LongShot27 wrote:On April 15 2015 23:17 bananafone wrote:On April 15 2015 22:46 LongShot27 wrote:On April 15 2015 22:43 Swoopae wrote:
[quote]
This is why match fixing will continue. If we don't care, the game is dead. If we do care, we can apply pressure on Kespa to investigate. A few articles, a few tweets, it doesn't take much effort to actually do something about it. No I don't care because this wasn't match fixing, nothing in this match was suspect whatsoever but this godforsaken excuse for a community is believing a bunch of gamblers over their common sense. If you we're to throw a match how would you do it? Clearly a not very obvious way would be good. Everyone who has ever played starcraft have probably thrown lots of games by accident and subsequently raged. Throwing games in a non-suspect fashion isn't hard and it's done all the time by people trying their best to do the exact opposite. This community is not using stupid excuses to witch hunt and forgetting about common sense. At this point probability answers the question for you. I'd suggest you go pick up a book about statistics and probability if you don't understand what is going on with the bet voiding. To simplify massively and make it easy to understand; each of these voided bets can be seen as an extraodinary event (like rolling ten sixes in a row with a normal die). In and of themselves the voided bets are very suspicious, but its hard to conclude that something weird is definetely going on. The same thing is true for the die example. Rolling ten sixes in a row is going to happen if you roll enough times, its just how probability works. However probability also says that if it happens enough times within a short span of time then maybe its time to check if the die is loaded. If someone rolls ten sixes in a row, goes to the toilet, comes back and rolls ten sixes in a row again you'll start to suspect that something is going on. Especially if you had money on that not happening. That is just common sense. "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." Wake the fuck up. You. Have. Zero. Proof. Whatsoever. No, there is plenty of proof, you're just ignoring it because you don't understand it. and you don't understand what proof means. Obviously there is match fixing going on since it plagued everything (Champion's League and WC in football) but the amount of proof is so small that nothing gets done in any sport. Main problem is that betting is a cancer for any competitive activity. No mate, you don't understand. If I post next week's lottery numbers today and they turn out to be right, it's one hell of a lucky guess. But when it happens 2 weeks in a row, or 3 or 4 weeks, it becomes proof that I somehow know the lottery numbers beforehand and the lottery machine is rigged. This is what is happening in Korean sc2 scene. Wouldn't that be called evidence? English isn't my first language, though. Isn't it the same really? http://www.mijnwoordenboek.nl/vertaal/NL/EN/bewijs No, you can have several pieces of evidence, but no definite proof. To prove someone is guilty you need evidence, of which the only one availably is skewed odds - this does not give any proof of either player matchfixing. SK, Creator, both, or neither could be guilty of it as it stands. SK could have thrown the game, Creator could have been fed information somehow, either directly or by being given info from someone on SK's team beforehand, both could have agreed on how the game would be played out beforehand, or someone on SKT1 could have let betters know that SK slipped in the shower that morning or something. Right now it's suspicious, but no player can be implicated for anything.
In Yorbons language it is (see link)
I know the difference (but can be the same as well), the point is people tend to sidetrack a bit on this. It's not important
On April 16 2015 01:29 sitromit wrote:
This sounds like bullshit to me, sorry.
Soulkey is a player who has a legitimate chance at a high finish when he's on form. Why would he throw away not only his chance to get into Code S, but also at making WCS top 16 and going to Blizzcon?
It happened before with Inno. Apparently it's a way to earn an easy extra buck; Throw the first map (match fix) but still win the series. Possibly karma caught up with SK on this one.
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On April 16 2015 01:29 sitromit wrote:
This sounds like bullshit to me, sorry.
Soulkey is a player who has a legitimate chance at a high finish when he's on form. Why would he throw away not only his chance to get into Code S, but also at making WCS top 16 and going to Blizzcon?
I bet people said the same thing about BW match fixing allegations.
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On April 16 2015 01:39 LongShot27 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2015 01:29 sitromit wrote:
This sounds like bullshit to me, sorry.
Soulkey is a player who has a legitimate chance at a high finish when he's on form. Why would he throw away not only his chance to get into Code S, but also at making WCS top 16 and going to Blizzcon? That's because it is bullshit
I am not sure why you so emotionally invested in this, but all your posts very weak when it comes to arguments.
Its a battle of simple data vs emotions, and its clear on which side you are on.
Its not an issue of "trusting a bunch of gamblers", its trusting the data. The data is out there, its neutral, its just facts. You are choosing to ignore it, but it doesnt make it less true.
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EPT
