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Pinnacle voids ByuL vs MarineKing Match - Page 43

Forum Index > SC2 General
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lohdon
Profile Blog Joined September 2014
170 Posts
March 26 2015 14:26 GMT
#841
On March 26 2015 23:19 Penev wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2015 23:17 lohdon wrote:
On March 26 2015 23:07 Grizvok wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:41 Deathstar wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:34 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:19 Deathstar wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:16 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:10 DJHelium wrote:

Nice, hopefully we'll get more than PR bullshit. The hopes are small though.


Are you mad? They're going to say they will either investigate this further or that there is no conclusive evidence of match fixing.

Which is pretty much PR bullshit, no? d:


I don't know what else you would expect. Leave MKP alone until you have something solid


There's already plenty of solid evidence.


No there isn't.

Explain to me why someone of MK's level wouldn't scout for a (proxy) hatch after scouting late pool + no natural


This has already been discussed numerous times. For instance he could have missed that there was no natural at first went in with his scv and everything seemed normal timing then at some point he realized wait there is no natural and started to question if it really was normal pool and gas timings and started to believe it was one base bane.
Charoisaur
Profile Joined August 2014
Germany16007 Posts
March 26 2015 14:28 GMT
#842
On March 26 2015 23:19 Penev wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2015 23:17 lohdon wrote:
On March 26 2015 23:07 Grizvok wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:41 Deathstar wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:34 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:19 Deathstar wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:16 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:10 DJHelium wrote:
https://twitter.com/SC2MVP/status/581068461784322048

Nice, hopefully we'll get more than PR bullshit. The hopes are small though.


Are you mad? They're going to say they will either investigate this further or that there is no conclusive evidence of match fixing.

Which is pretty much PR bullshit, no? d:


I don't know what else you would expect. Leave MKP alone until you have something solid


There's already plenty of solid evidence.


No there isn't.

Explain to me why someone of MK's level wouldn't scout for a (proxy) hatch after scouting late pool + no natural


sometimes players just make those mistakes.
Why would someone of INnoVations level fly 3 fully loaded medivacs into mutas?
Why would someone of Rains level not build a pylon during a baserace despite having the money?
Why would MMA destroy his own command center?
only because they are pros it doesn't mean they can't make mistakes.
Many of the coolest moments in sc2 happen due to worker harassment
Penev
Profile Joined October 2012
28500 Posts
March 26 2015 14:29 GMT
#843
On March 26 2015 23:24 OtherWorld wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2015 23:10 The_Red_Viper wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:50 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:41 Deathstar wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:34 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:19 Deathstar wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:16 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:10 DJHelium wrote:
https://twitter.com/SC2MVP/status/581068461784322048

Nice, hopefully we'll get more than PR bullshit. The hopes are small though.


Are you mad? They're going to say they will either investigate this further or that there is no conclusive evidence of match fixing.

Which is pretty much PR bullshit, no? d:


I don't know what else you would expect. Leave MKP alone until you have something solid

I guess an analysis of the game by MVP's staff, possibly by MK himself, because sadly saying that "there is no conclusive evidence of matchfixing" will do them more hurt than not saying anything.
And if you read the thread I am not witch hunting, I actually defended MK's innocence until he is proven guilty and argued against the "it looks shady so, y'known, it has to be shady, right?" logic.


This isn't the logic though.
It is more like: "Considering we have a voided bet and MKP's gameplay looked like a thrown match the most simple and probable explanation is that is was a thrown match"

Well yeah, and how do you go from "it's the most simple and probable explanation" to "it's what actually happened"?

I said this tons of times but I'll say it again. I don't deny that bets were placed on an unregular basis, because they were, at least according to Pinnacle, which we can probably trust as far as betting goes. I don't deny that MK looked different in his behavior before and during the game, because he did, which may or may not be an indication of him matchfixing. I don't deny that MK's play looked, at least for someone with no knowledge of MarineKing's usual play and reactions, somewhere between "terribly bad" and "straight-up nonsensical". It's enough to suspect him of matchfixing, because yes that's what it looks like unless you have more informations, but it's not enough to jump to the conclusion that "it has to be matchfixing", ie, to accuse him of this.

Show nested quote +
On March 26 2015 23:15 Grizvok wrote:
On March 26 2015 23:10 The_Red_Viper wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:50 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:41 Deathstar wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:34 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:19 Deathstar wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:16 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:10 DJHelium wrote:
https://twitter.com/SC2MVP/status/581068461784322048

Nice, hopefully we'll get more than PR bullshit. The hopes are small though.


Are you mad? They're going to say they will either investigate this further or that there is no conclusive evidence of match fixing.

Which is pretty much PR bullshit, no? d:


I don't know what else you would expect. Leave MKP alone until you have something solid

I guess an analysis of the game by MVP's staff, possibly by MK himself, because sadly saying that "there is no conclusive evidence of matchfixing" will do them more hurt than not saying anything.
And if you read the thread I am not witch hunting, I actually defended MK's innocence until he is proven guilty and argued against the "it looks shady so, y'known, it has to be shady, right?" logic.


This isn't the logic though.
It is more like: "Considering we have a voided bet and MKP's gameplay looked like a thrown match the most simple and probable explanation is that is was a thrown match"


Exactly. Given all evidence we've received this being a fixed match is the probable explanation. If you think otherwise you probably lack some pretty basic critical thinking skills.

Jesus, someone who didn't even try to look at things from different point of views telling me that I lack basic critical skills without even reading what I said. Grats.

I think it is but it's good that you provide the "innocent until proven guilty" thing to the thread (without stupidly being in denial).
I Protoss winner, could it be?
OtherWorld
Profile Blog Joined October 2013
France17333 Posts
March 26 2015 14:30 GMT
#844
On March 26 2015 23:26 lohdon wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2015 23:19 Penev wrote:
On March 26 2015 23:17 lohdon wrote:
On March 26 2015 23:07 Grizvok wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:41 Deathstar wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:34 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:19 Deathstar wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:16 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:10 DJHelium wrote:
https://twitter.com/SC2MVP/status/581068461784322048

Nice, hopefully we'll get more than PR bullshit. The hopes are small though.


Are you mad? They're going to say they will either investigate this further or that there is no conclusive evidence of match fixing.

Which is pretty much PR bullshit, no? d:


I don't know what else you would expect. Leave MKP alone until you have something solid


There's already plenty of solid evidence.


No there isn't.

Explain to me why someone of MK's level wouldn't scout for a (proxy) hatch after scouting late pool + no natural


This has already been discussed numerous times. For instance he could have missed that there was no natural at first went in with his scv and everything seemed normal timing then at some point he realized wait there is no natural and started to question if it really was normal pool and gas timings and started to believe it was one base bane.

That one is not really likely though, since at 3:26 ingame time he leans forward when clicking on the spawning pool, most likely to check for the timing of the pool.
Used Sigs - New Sigs - Cheap Sigs - Buy the Best Cheap Sig near You at www.cheapsigforsale.com
Penev
Profile Joined October 2012
28500 Posts
March 26 2015 14:30 GMT
#845
On March 26 2015 23:26 lohdon wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2015 23:19 Penev wrote:
On March 26 2015 23:17 lohdon wrote:
On March 26 2015 23:07 Grizvok wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:41 Deathstar wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:34 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:19 Deathstar wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:16 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:10 DJHelium wrote:
https://twitter.com/SC2MVP/status/581068461784322048

Nice, hopefully we'll get more than PR bullshit. The hopes are small though.


Are you mad? They're going to say they will either investigate this further or that there is no conclusive evidence of match fixing.

Which is pretty much PR bullshit, no? d:


I don't know what else you would expect. Leave MKP alone until you have something solid


There's already plenty of solid evidence.


No there isn't.

Explain to me why someone of MK's level wouldn't scout for a (proxy) hatch after scouting late pool + no natural


This has already been discussed numerous times. For instance he could have missed that there was no natural at first went in with his scv and everything seemed normal timing then at some point he realized wait there is no natural and started to question if it really was normal pool and gas timings and started to believe it was one base bane.

Now combine that with the voiding of the bet
I Protoss winner, could it be?
The_Red_Viper
Profile Blog Joined August 2013
19533 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-03-26 14:32:14
March 26 2015 14:31 GMT
#846
On March 26 2015 23:24 OtherWorld wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2015 23:10 The_Red_Viper wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:50 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:41 Deathstar wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:34 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:19 Deathstar wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:16 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:10 DJHelium wrote:
https://twitter.com/SC2MVP/status/581068461784322048

Nice, hopefully we'll get more than PR bullshit. The hopes are small though.


Are you mad? They're going to say they will either investigate this further or that there is no conclusive evidence of match fixing.

Which is pretty much PR bullshit, no? d:


I don't know what else you would expect. Leave MKP alone until you have something solid

I guess an analysis of the game by MVP's staff, possibly by MK himself, because sadly saying that "there is no conclusive evidence of matchfixing" will do them more hurt than not saying anything.
And if you read the thread I am not witch hunting, I actually defended MK's innocence until he is proven guilty and argued against the "it looks shady so, y'known, it has to be shady, right?" logic.


This isn't the logic though.
It is more like: "Considering we have a voided bet and MKP's gameplay looked like a thrown match the most simple and probable explanation is that is was a thrown match"

Well yeah, and how do you go from "it's the most simple and probable explanation" to "it's what actually happened"?

I said this tons of times but I'll say it again. I don't deny that bets were placed on an unregular basis, because they were, at least according to Pinnacle, which we can probably trust as far as betting goes. I don't deny that MK looked different in his behavior before and during the game, because he did, which may or may not be an indication of him matchfixing. I don't deny that MK's play looked, at least for someone with no knowledge of MarineKing's usual play and reactions, somewhere between "terribly bad" and "straight-up nonsensical". It's enough to suspect him of matchfixing, because yes that's what it looks like unless you have more informations, but it's not enough to jump to the conclusion that "it has to be matchfixing", ie, to accuse him of this.


Well as long as it is the most likely explanation given the information we have, i obviously also look at it as "the right solution"
I don't even disagree that there shouldn't be any actions yet, i don't think MKP should be banned or whatever.
But the evidence is strong enough imo to expect it to be true, we still could need more information to cement it (so it get's even more likely, or to deny it completely)
If there is another explanation which is just as likely, pls give it to me and i wouldn't even expect matchfixing.
So far i saw none which comes even close though.
IU | Sohyang || There is no God and we are his prophets | For if ‘Thou mayest’—it is also true that ‘Thou mayest not.” | Ignorance is the parent of fear |
maGicc
Profile Joined March 2015
Finland134 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-03-26 14:41:41
March 26 2015 14:41 GMT
#847
Given that MVP twitter favorited this i'd say chances that their statement will actually be truthful are increasing :

[image loading]
OtherWorld
Profile Blog Joined October 2013
France17333 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-03-26 15:00:50
March 26 2015 14:48 GMT
#848
On March 26 2015 23:31 The_Red_Viper wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2015 23:24 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 23:10 The_Red_Viper wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:50 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:41 Deathstar wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:34 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:19 Deathstar wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:16 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:10 DJHelium wrote:
https://twitter.com/SC2MVP/status/581068461784322048

Nice, hopefully we'll get more than PR bullshit. The hopes are small though.


Are you mad? They're going to say they will either investigate this further or that there is no conclusive evidence of match fixing.

Which is pretty much PR bullshit, no? d:


I don't know what else you would expect. Leave MKP alone until you have something solid

I guess an analysis of the game by MVP's staff, possibly by MK himself, because sadly saying that "there is no conclusive evidence of matchfixing" will do them more hurt than not saying anything.
And if you read the thread I am not witch hunting, I actually defended MK's innocence until he is proven guilty and argued against the "it looks shady so, y'known, it has to be shady, right?" logic.


This isn't the logic though.
It is more like: "Considering we have a voided bet and MKP's gameplay looked like a thrown match the most simple and probable explanation is that is was a thrown match"

Well yeah, and how do you go from "it's the most simple and probable explanation" to "it's what actually happened"?

I said this tons of times but I'll say it again. I don't deny that bets were placed on an unregular basis, because they were, at least according to Pinnacle, which we can probably trust as far as betting goes. I don't deny that MK looked different in his behavior before and during the game, because he did, which may or may not be an indication of him matchfixing. I don't deny that MK's play looked, at least for someone with no knowledge of MarineKing's usual play and reactions, somewhere between "terribly bad" and "straight-up nonsensical". It's enough to suspect him of matchfixing, because yes that's what it looks like unless you have more informations, but it's not enough to jump to the conclusion that "it has to be matchfixing", ie, to accuse him of this.


Well as long as it is the most likely explanation given the information we have, i obviously also look at it as "the right solution"
I don't even disagree that there shouldn't be any actions yet, i don't think MKP should be banned or whatever.
But the evidence is strong enough imo to expect it to be true, we still could need more information to cement it (so it get's even more likely, or to deny it completely)
If there is another explanation which is just as likely, pls give it to me and i wouldn't even expect matchfixing.
So far i saw none which comes even close though.

There are two on top of my mind to explain MK's play, and it might be a combination of them too :
-As claimed by duckk, this is MarineKing's standard reaction to a proxy hatching Zerg. Yes it seems like a terrible reaction, but hell it's not like we never saw terrible builds in PL (to be fair even ByuL's build here is terrible, I mean unless the Terran CC first it's basically an autoloss).
-He was ill/tired (fun fact : 24 hours without sleep is equivalent to having 1g/L of alcohol in your blood EDIT : nvm I got my figures wrong, but sleep deprivation still produces similar effects to alcohol)/on painkillers/tried to take drugs to be less nervous/anything that could alter his ability to think clearly (although to be fair I recognize that if this is the case it is strange that it wasn't mentioned in his FB post).

Now I agree that combined with the voided bets, those two explanations fall short in terms of probability compared to match-fixing. But as I said earlier, this indicates to me that this is not MK's play that should be the most important part of this, but the voided bets. If we picture MK as very likely of having matchfixed, then we should with the other players who lost games with voided bets too ; because one executes a crime in a less visible way doesn't mean that one is less guilty of the crime.
Used Sigs - New Sigs - Cheap Sigs - Buy the Best Cheap Sig near You at www.cheapsigforsale.com
lohdon
Profile Blog Joined September 2014
170 Posts
March 26 2015 14:53 GMT
#849
On March 26 2015 23:30 Penev wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2015 23:26 lohdon wrote:
On March 26 2015 23:19 Penev wrote:
On March 26 2015 23:17 lohdon wrote:
On March 26 2015 23:07 Grizvok wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:41 Deathstar wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:34 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:19 Deathstar wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:16 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:10 DJHelium wrote:
https://twitter.com/SC2MVP/status/581068461784322048

Nice, hopefully we'll get more than PR bullshit. The hopes are small though.


Are you mad? They're going to say they will either investigate this further or that there is no conclusive evidence of match fixing.

Which is pretty much PR bullshit, no? d:


I don't know what else you would expect. Leave MKP alone until you have something solid


There's already plenty of solid evidence.


No there isn't.

Explain to me why someone of MK's level wouldn't scout for a (proxy) hatch after scouting late pool + no natural


This has already been discussed numerous times. For instance he could have missed that there was no natural at first went in with his scv and everything seemed normal timing then at some point he realized wait there is no natural and started to question if it really was normal pool and gas timings and started to believe it was one base bane.

Now combine that with the voiding of the bet


We had voided bets before and now we have a voided bet combined with suspicious gameplay which could still be interpreted either way. All I'm saying is we still have no real proof. Might it be really probable that it was matchfixing? Yes. But is it enough to charge MKP guilty? No, I don't think so.
Tenks
Profile Joined April 2010
United States3104 Posts
March 26 2015 14:55 GMT
#850
It may not be enough to charge him guilty but it is enough to warrant a very thorough investigation into the matter
Wat
Zenbrez
Profile Joined June 2012
Canada5973 Posts
March 26 2015 14:56 GMT
#851
The amount of people that are so easily convinced is so remarkably saddening.

Just breath the word "match fixing" and everybody gets on board. Gross.
Refer to my post.
OtherWorld
Profile Blog Joined October 2013
France17333 Posts
March 26 2015 14:57 GMT
#852
On March 26 2015 23:55 Tenks wrote:
It may not be enough to charge him guilty but it is enough to warrant a very thorough investigation into the matter

I don't think anyone denies that though. That's pretty much the most important thing now. Additionally the worst possible thing would be KeSPA banning MK to please the people but doing nothing about the other suspicious games.
Used Sigs - New Sigs - Cheap Sigs - Buy the Best Cheap Sig near You at www.cheapsigforsale.com
The_Red_Viper
Profile Blog Joined August 2013
19533 Posts
March 26 2015 14:57 GMT
#853
On March 26 2015 23:48 OtherWorld wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2015 23:31 The_Red_Viper wrote:
On March 26 2015 23:24 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 23:10 The_Red_Viper wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:50 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:41 Deathstar wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:34 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:19 Deathstar wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:16 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:10 DJHelium wrote:
https://twitter.com/SC2MVP/status/581068461784322048

Nice, hopefully we'll get more than PR bullshit. The hopes are small though.


Are you mad? They're going to say they will either investigate this further or that there is no conclusive evidence of match fixing.

Which is pretty much PR bullshit, no? d:


I don't know what else you would expect. Leave MKP alone until you have something solid

I guess an analysis of the game by MVP's staff, possibly by MK himself, because sadly saying that "there is no conclusive evidence of matchfixing" will do them more hurt than not saying anything.
And if you read the thread I am not witch hunting, I actually defended MK's innocence until he is proven guilty and argued against the "it looks shady so, y'known, it has to be shady, right?" logic.


This isn't the logic though.
It is more like: "Considering we have a voided bet and MKP's gameplay looked like a thrown match the most simple and probable explanation is that is was a thrown match"

Well yeah, and how do you go from "it's the most simple and probable explanation" to "it's what actually happened"?

I said this tons of times but I'll say it again. I don't deny that bets were placed on an unregular basis, because they were, at least according to Pinnacle, which we can probably trust as far as betting goes. I don't deny that MK looked different in his behavior before and during the game, because he did, which may or may not be an indication of him matchfixing. I don't deny that MK's play looked, at least for someone with no knowledge of MarineKing's usual play and reactions, somewhere between "terribly bad" and "straight-up nonsensical". It's enough to suspect him of matchfixing, because yes that's what it looks like unless you have more informations, but it's not enough to jump to the conclusion that "it has to be matchfixing", ie, to accuse him of this.


Well as long as it is the most likely explanation given the information we have, i obviously also look at it as "the right solution"
I don't even disagree that there shouldn't be any actions yet, i don't think MKP should be banned or whatever.
But the evidence is strong enough imo to expect it to be true, we still could need more information to cement it (so it get's even more likely, or to deny it completely)
If there is another explanation which is just as likely, pls give it to me and i wouldn't even expect matchfixing.
So far i saw none which comes even close though.

There are two on top of my mind to explain MK's play, and it might be a combination of them too :
-As claimed by duckk, this is MarineKing's standard reaction to a proxy hatching Zerg. Yes it seems like a terrible reaction, but hell it's not like we never saw terrible builds in PL (to be fair even ByuL's build here is terrible, I mean unless the Terran CC first it's basically an autoloss).
-He was ill/tired (fun fact : 24 hours without sleep is equivalent to having 1g/L of alcohol in your blood)/on painkillers/tried to take drugs to be less nervous/anything that could alter his ability to think clearly (although to be fair I recognize that if this is the case it is strange that it wasn't mentioned in his FB post).

Now I agree that combined with the voided bets, those two explanations fall short in terms of probability compared to match-fixing. But as I said earlier, this indicates to me that this is not MK's play that should be the most important part of this, but the voided bets. If we picture MK as very likely of having matchfixed, then we should with the other players who lost games with voided bets too ; because one executes a crime in a less visible way doesn't mean that one is less guilty of the crime.

Well yeah i agree completely. His play isn't the most important part at all. It's just that a lot of people still don't understand how the betting thing works and now that MKP played/threw this badly they are more inclined to believe what other people said all along: there might be a matchfixing problem in korean sc2.
And yes, i obviously want Kespa to look into these other matches too.

I won't comment on your explanations for gameplay only, cause that isn't really what i am looking for though. (you HAVE TO explain the betting too)
I hope this "witch hunt" will lead to an investigation, that's the best case scenario at this point
IU | Sohyang || There is no God and we are his prophets | For if ‘Thou mayest’—it is also true that ‘Thou mayest not.” | Ignorance is the parent of fear |
maGicc
Profile Joined March 2015
Finland134 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-03-26 15:02:53
March 26 2015 15:00 GMT
#854
On March 26 2015 23:53 lohdon wrote:
We had voided bets before and now we have a voided bet combined with suspicious gameplay which could still be interpreted either way. All I'm saying is we still have no real proof. Might it be really probable that it was matchfixing? Yes. But is it enough to charge MKP guilty? No, I don't think so.


I hope you understand that the fact that now we have voided bet + suspicious gameplay only makes the previous voided matches way way more likely to be fixed.

The "well we had voided matches before, and we are not sure they were throws, so this MKP's match could be legit"-logic is a massive, MASSIVE fallacy. Its not how probabilities work.
Big J
Profile Joined March 2011
Austria16289 Posts
March 26 2015 15:01 GMT
#855
On March 27 2015 00:00 maGicc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2015 23:53 lohdon wrote:
We had voided bets before and now we have a voided bet combined with suspicious gameplay which could still be interpreted either way. All I'm saying is we still have no real proof. Might it be really probable that it was matchfixing? Yes. But is it enough to charge MKP guilty? No, I don't think so.


I hope you understand that the fact that now we have voided bet + suspicious gameplay only makes the previous voided matches way way more likely to be fixed.

The "well we had voided matches before, and we are not sure they were throws, so this MKP's match could be legit" is a massive, MASSIVE fallacy. Its not how probabilities work.

Probabilities don't "work". That's the point of probabilities.
Andre
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
Slovenia3523 Posts
March 26 2015 15:02 GMT
#856
I thought it was established korea has a big problem with matchfixing. Consider the smaller tournaments that got money out of thin air and Rekrul's statement, it's quite scary.

Matchfixing expedited BW's downfall, it would be sad if the same happens here.
You must gather your party before venturing forth.
OtherWorld
Profile Blog Joined October 2013
France17333 Posts
March 26 2015 15:02 GMT
#857
On March 26 2015 23:57 The_Red_Viper wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2015 23:48 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 23:31 The_Red_Viper wrote:
On March 26 2015 23:24 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 23:10 The_Red_Viper wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:50 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:41 Deathstar wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:34 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:19 Deathstar wrote:
On March 26 2015 22:16 OtherWorld wrote:
[quote]
Nice, hopefully we'll get more than PR bullshit. The hopes are small though.


Are you mad? They're going to say they will either investigate this further or that there is no conclusive evidence of match fixing.

Which is pretty much PR bullshit, no? d:


I don't know what else you would expect. Leave MKP alone until you have something solid

I guess an analysis of the game by MVP's staff, possibly by MK himself, because sadly saying that "there is no conclusive evidence of matchfixing" will do them more hurt than not saying anything.
And if you read the thread I am not witch hunting, I actually defended MK's innocence until he is proven guilty and argued against the "it looks shady so, y'known, it has to be shady, right?" logic.


This isn't the logic though.
It is more like: "Considering we have a voided bet and MKP's gameplay looked like a thrown match the most simple and probable explanation is that is was a thrown match"

Well yeah, and how do you go from "it's the most simple and probable explanation" to "it's what actually happened"?

I said this tons of times but I'll say it again. I don't deny that bets were placed on an unregular basis, because they were, at least according to Pinnacle, which we can probably trust as far as betting goes. I don't deny that MK looked different in his behavior before and during the game, because he did, which may or may not be an indication of him matchfixing. I don't deny that MK's play looked, at least for someone with no knowledge of MarineKing's usual play and reactions, somewhere between "terribly bad" and "straight-up nonsensical". It's enough to suspect him of matchfixing, because yes that's what it looks like unless you have more informations, but it's not enough to jump to the conclusion that "it has to be matchfixing", ie, to accuse him of this.


Well as long as it is the most likely explanation given the information we have, i obviously also look at it as "the right solution"
I don't even disagree that there shouldn't be any actions yet, i don't think MKP should be banned or whatever.
But the evidence is strong enough imo to expect it to be true, we still could need more information to cement it (so it get's even more likely, or to deny it completely)
If there is another explanation which is just as likely, pls give it to me and i wouldn't even expect matchfixing.
So far i saw none which comes even close though.

There are two on top of my mind to explain MK's play, and it might be a combination of them too :
-As claimed by duckk, this is MarineKing's standard reaction to a proxy hatching Zerg. Yes it seems like a terrible reaction, but hell it's not like we never saw terrible builds in PL (to be fair even ByuL's build here is terrible, I mean unless the Terran CC first it's basically an autoloss).
-He was ill/tired (fun fact : 24 hours without sleep is equivalent to having 1g/L of alcohol in your blood)/on painkillers/tried to take drugs to be less nervous/anything that could alter his ability to think clearly (although to be fair I recognize that if this is the case it is strange that it wasn't mentioned in his FB post).

Now I agree that combined with the voided bets, those two explanations fall short in terms of probability compared to match-fixing. But as I said earlier, this indicates to me that this is not MK's play that should be the most important part of this, but the voided bets. If we picture MK as very likely of having matchfixed, then we should with the other players who lost games with voided bets too ; because one executes a crime in a less visible way doesn't mean that one is less guilty of the crime.

Well yeah i agree completely. His play isn't the most important part at all. It's just that a lot of people still don't understand how the betting thing works and now that MKP played/threw this badly they are more inclined to believe what other people said all along: there might be a matchfixing problem in korean sc2.
And yes, i obviously want Kespa to look into these other matches too.

I won't comment on your explanations for gameplay only, cause that isn't really what i am looking for though. (you HAVE TO explain the betting too)
I hope this "witch hunt" will lead to an investigation, that's the best case scenario at this point

Yeah, OK. I guess we don't disagree that much then.
Used Sigs - New Sigs - Cheap Sigs - Buy the Best Cheap Sig near You at www.cheapsigforsale.com
Samx
Profile Joined August 2013
Singapore149 Posts
March 26 2015 15:04 GMT
#858
To those familiar with sports betting. This is as clear as day.

The equivalent is this. A match between Arsenal and west ham. William hill open at 1.25 for arsenal to win. But 10 minutes before kick off. Someone betted about $1 billion dollars on arsenal to win and caused the rate for arsenal to drop to 1.02. Meaning if arsenal win, he stands to win 80 million.

At kick off, arsene wenger's squad comprise of 11 attackers and no defenders. West ham responded to this lunacy by playing the game blindfolded.
Our enemies are a legion and STILL you procrastinate
BronzeKnee
Profile Joined March 2011
United States5217 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-03-26 15:17:12
March 26 2015 15:06 GMT
#859
On March 26 2015 23:56 Zenbrez wrote:
The amount of people that are so easily convinced is so remarkably saddening.

Just breath the word "match fixing" and everybody gets on board. Gross.


Actually, I was convinced when I saw the betting lines then watched the vod carefully several times. Is that gross too? Is using your brain gross?

Because if you watched the vod, then realized how skewed the betting lines were, you'd reach the same conclusion.

The chance of the betting lines being that skewed (we aren't talking one standard deviation from the norm here) alone are astronomically small. It has never happened in a legit match, and according to Aliguac, it would never happen between two Proleague players. And what about the chances that a professional player throws down a third CC knowing their opponent did not expand normally, that they don't follow up scout to figure out what was going on, that they blatantly missed for over 1:30 seconds a big dot on the minimap, and that they didn't watch the backdoor of their base knowing their opponent wasn't playing standard and could be cheesing on a map with a backdoor entrance? The chances of any of those things alone are small.

And the chance that all of those things happened at once? That is match fixing. And the chances I win the lottery are better than the chances I am wrong.

Salteador Neo
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
Andorra5591 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-03-26 15:07:39
March 26 2015 15:07 GMT
#860
On March 26 2015 23:56 Zenbrez wrote:
The amount of people that are so easily convinced is so remarkably saddening.

Just breath the word "match fixing" and everybody gets on board. Gross.


I'm sorry but if you watch the game and know how numbers work and you are not convinced, then you are just naive.
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