EPTit could be true, it could be not, that makes no difference to me as i've said earlier. i'm saying try to look at this WITHOUT saying he should have done this or that.
Pinnacle voids ByuL vs MarineKing Match - Page 31
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jinorazi
Korea (South)4948 Posts
it could be true, it could be not, that makes no difference to me as i've said earlier. i'm saying try to look at this WITHOUT saying he should have done this or that. | ||
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OtherWorld
France17333 Posts
On March 26 2015 05:01 jinorazi wrote: see, you guys are just saying he could have done this and that, it wasnt the perfect decision, this and that and i'm saying its completely normal for progamers to make bad decisions, mkp at that and i see no problem cherry picking if he saw or not saw the creep, whether he read zerg's base correctly or not. this happens, a lot and it coincides with the bet turn around. it could be true, it could be not, that makes no difference to me as i've said earlier. i'm saying try to look at this WITHOUT saying he should have done this or that. You can't deny that when looking critically and without bias at it, this is terrible play that makes little to no sense (closer to no than to little, actually). I'm pretty sure that without the betting thing this would have had a special mention at the end of the year in the "best games of 2015" article TL does. | ||
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Swoopae
Australia339 Posts
On March 26 2015 04:51 Elentos wrote: MK finished second in Hot6ix Cup in December and got into Code S (where he basically failed because of his non-existent winrate in TvT), that alone nets him about 8000$ since December, that's way more than most other players in Proleague earned in that timespan. This is you being fixated on him being guilty, not an objective point of evidence. By the way, how much is really known about the "matchfixing scene"? Like, do they just ask players nicely and hope they say "yes", or does it involve blackmail and threats? Are players that say "no" just left alone? Are there legit dangerous syndicates at work, or just individuals? If they are actually dangerous for the players, that makes things even worse. I have no idea but you could ask Solar and MMA both of whom have reported match fixing offers. I don't recall either of them being threatened and from memory the Solar chat logs were released or summarised | ||
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Salteador Neo
Andorra5591 Posts
It's really as close as it can get to 100% obvious imo. | ||
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BronzeKnee
United States5219 Posts
On March 26 2015 04:56 OtherWorld wrote: I have no qualification in Statistics and Probabilities, sorry. However I think that we are just seeing things through a different prism ; you're talking probabilities while I'm talking about having basic respect towards a person that has not been proven guilty. So the simplest explanation is the one that is true, eh? Right, that's a wonderful principle ; too bad that has probably been the basis of most condemnations of innocents in our judiciary system. Reality isn't "simple". Reality is complex. You can push this "fewer assumptions = better" thing up until absurdity and stupidity. The most simple explanation is not the one that is true. That isn't what I said. We know the few facts, no one here has better predictive ability than anyone else. So attempting to not assume anything, what is the simplest explanation? It is that MKP threw the match. Do you disagree? Is there a simpler explanation that makes fewer assumptions? And that is the power of occam's razor. First, it is usually right, not always, but usually. Second you'll go off the deep end (and you are already neck deep) trying to explain everything away until "absurdity and stupidity," especially when there is a very simple explanation that is probably going to be true. And then you'll look foolish when it comes to pass that he did throw the match. Sometimes, you have to go with what is most probable, not what is possible, because almost anything is possible. And that is good investing advice too. | ||
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sertas
Sweden890 Posts
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jinorazi
Korea (South)4948 Posts
On March 26 2015 05:02 OtherWorld wrote: You can't deny that when looking critically and without bias at it, this is terrible play that makes little to no sense (closer to no than to little, actually). I'm pretty sure that without the betting thing this would have had a special mention at the end of the year in the "best games of 2015" article TL does. i say its a terrible play, not a proof of match fixing. therefore, i think its a slippery slope to accuse any terrible play, even the ones that make no sense as a base for match fixing accusation. | ||
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FFW_Rude
France10201 Posts
Observer pointed 3times the crawler in MK vision in the VOD. Watching it again, MK seemed so destroy..... it was so sad to see. And i don't really like him. it was just sad to see his expression. | ||
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Penev
28512 Posts
On March 26 2015 05:01 jinorazi wrote: see, you guys are just saying he could have done this and that, it wasnt the perfect decision, this and that and i'm saying its completely normal for progamers to make bad decisions, mkp at that and i see no need to cherry picking if he saw or not saw the creep, whether he read zerg's base correctly or not. this happens, a lot and it coincides with the bet turn around. it could be true, it could be not, that makes no difference to me as i've said earlier. i'm saying try to look at this WITHOUT saying he should have done this or that. Please, again, try to explain his actions after he scouted the late pool + no natural. A Zerg on ONE base with NO tech? Where are all the minerals? Did Byul fell asleep? Surely, there must be a hatch somewhere? Let's check the golds, if not there than proxy. I have 2 Reapers and there's no (speed)lings out.. And then there's the voiding of the bet by Pinnacle | ||
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maGicc
Finland134 Posts
By your logic, we shouldnt be surprised either, because progamers make bad decisons all the time, and cherry picking what he should or shouldnt done is silly. | ||
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Elentos
55566 Posts
On March 26 2015 04:53 Penev wrote: Guys, it's not (just) about the spine. Watch the game, try to explain his actions after he scouted what he did. Try? Okay. He missed the dot on his minimap, nothing to be seen at his own natural or the golds. He then projects his own greedy playstyle on to ByuL, thinking that instead of playing an all-in, the man just expanded to one of his possible 3rd bases first (yes, sometimes players do that) and is going to play a standard game from that point on. He continues to not realise that there is an enemy building on the minimap and completely ignores that there might still be an all-in, going into full MarineKing mode, adding the 3rd CC. There. I tried. And you know what? Even if that was the legit thought process and exactly what happened, which is a .0001% chance, who would believe that story? Approximately nobody. If he's guilty, that's horrible, but if MK is actually somehow innocent, this whole debacle is also horrible, and he might end up leaving the scene either way. | ||
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jinorazi
Korea (South)4948 Posts
On March 26 2015 05:05 FFW_Rude wrote: Observer pointed 3times the crawler in MK vision in the VOD. Watching it again, MK seemed so destroy..... it was so sad to see. And i don't really like him. it was just sad to see his expression. i watched it again and yes its a crawler being built. | ||
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Swoopae
Australia339 Posts
If that's the case though what explanation do you have for enormous piles of money being bet on Byul in a best of 1 as a 11-1 favourite? Is this logical behaviour from a bettor to you? Would you expect Byul to win 92+ maps in a best of 100 against Marineking? Because that is what would need to occur for the bettor not to be lighting money on fire at that point. If the betting was manipulated, and the match wasn't fixed, what possible explanation is there in your mind? If the betting wasn't manipulated, what expertise do you have that makes your judgement similar to the world's most reputable online sportsbook? On another note, very interested to see what Wolf has to say about everything and if he's still planning to translate some Korean comments etc as he mentioned on Twitter | ||
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jinorazi
Korea (South)4948 Posts
On March 26 2015 05:10 Swoopae wrote: Jinorazi we get that you don't think the match was fixed. You're wrong, and you've posted factually inaccurate info in the thread that was disproven about the crawler not being seen by the reaper, but you're entitled to your opinion as nothing can be 100% conclusive here. (edit: didn't see your above post, clearly you now agree the reaper saw the crawler) If that's the case though what explanation do you have for enormous piles of money being bet on Byul in a best of 1 as a 11-1 favourite? Is this logical behaviour from a bettor to you? Would you expect Byul to win 92+ maps in a best of 100 against Marineking? Because that is what would need to occur for the bettor not to be lighting money on fire at that point. If the betting was manipulated, and the match wasn't fixed, what possible explanation is there in your mind? If the betting wasn't manipulated, what expertise do you have that makes your judgement similar to the world's most reputable online sportsbook? no no, i do not say this was fixed or not, i'm just saying its more likely mkp played horribly, as usual, rather than playing horribly on purpose. i'm just saying lets not carry our pitch forks too high before it pokes flash's eyes out. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15736 Posts
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OtherWorld
France17333 Posts
On March 26 2015 05:03 BronzeKnee wrote: The most simple explanation is not the one that is true. That isn't what I said. We know the few facts, no one here has better predictive ability than anyone else. So attempting to not assume anything, what is the simplest explanation? It is that MKP threw the match. Do you disagree? Is there a simpler explanation that makes fewer assumptions? And that is the power of occam's razor. First, it is usually right, not always, but usually. Second you'll go off the deep end (and you are already neck deep) trying to explain everything away until "absurdity and stupidity," especially when there is a very simple explanation that is probably going to be true. And then you'll look foolish when it comes to pass that he did throw the match. Sometimes, you have to go with what is most probable, not what is possible, because almost anything is possible. And that is good investing advice too. I'd say that MK being ill and on painkillers, affecting his ability to analyze the game without affecting his ability to play mechanically decently, is as simple as implying that MK threw the game, and makes fewer assumptions. Although I recognize that if that was the case it is likely that MK would have mentioned it in his FB rant. So let's say that yes, this is the simplest explanation, I agree. Now you see, that's the issue here. We're talking about someone's life, not about "investing". We're talking about justice, not about your everyday decisions. That's why "usually" is not enough. That's why judgements are not made by going for "hey, look, this is the explanation with the fewest assumptions. Let's say it's what happened and make a judgement out of it". I do agree that you sometimes, even often, have to go with what is the most probable. But not when it's someone's career, someone's life, that is the matter. And I won't look like a fool, because I am not defending MarineKing and saying that he didn't throw the game. I am defending what he deserves (even if guilty, btw), that is, basic respect, because a progamer's life doesn't deserve to be destroyed based on sole probabilities (remember this? ). And I'm saying this as someone who is happy to see MarineKing lose and who never supported it. | ||
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Swoopae
Australia339 Posts
On March 26 2015 05:11 jinorazi wrote: no no, i do not say this was fixed or not, i'm just saying its more likely mkp played horribly, as usual, rather than playing horribly on purpose. We can agree that regardless of this match being thrown or not Marineking is clearly out of form in all matchups except TvP, that doesn't really affect the probability that this match was thrown one way or the other. | ||
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maGicc
Finland134 Posts
On March 26 2015 05:11 jinorazi wrote: i'm just saying its more likely mkp played horribly, as usual Its kinda funny but people seems to dismiss the possibility of MKP's previous "horrible plays" being matchfixing related as well. | ||
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Wuster
1974 Posts
On March 26 2015 05:08 jinorazi wrote: i watched it again and yes its a crawler being built. Even if we ignore the visible crawler. I'm trying to think of a build where you have 2 reapers and keep them at home for ever. You go double reaper to scout and put early pressure to keep his early units at home I thought. If you suspect all-in then reapers are faster than literally every unit at that point of the game and you go look for them no? That's definitely what I see people doing with their hellions. | ||
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FFW_Rude
France10201 Posts
On March 26 2015 05:15 maGicc wrote: Its kinda funny but people seems to dismiss the possibility of MKP's previous "horrible plays" being matchfixing related as well. Did you know that hunger in the world was also his fault ? Give the guy a break for god sake | ||
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