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On March 26 2015 04:17 OtherWorld wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2015 04:15 Big J wrote:
I've watched this game for 5years now. I've seen people make the most retarted decisions. Under the assumption that MK really just missed the spine crawler outside of the rocks, I don't see why this should be considered any worse than any proplayer trying to make Mech work vs Protoss in a serious game. Brainfarts and overconfidence are going to happen. (from the gameplay perspective; the betting is a complete other topic) Don't you spread bullshit, San's blocking his own nexus, Moon failing his baneling detonations and [insert the name of any Zerg ever here] blowing banelings on his opponent's hatch while doing a 10p bane were obviously all dirty players who very obviously fixed their matches.
Well, San and Moon both won those series which they made said mistakes.... and there weren't outrageous betting lines involved.
And those are small mistakes compared to this honestly. It wasn't like MKP just didn't scout and lost. He scouted no hatchery in the natural, knew his opponent hadn't expanded to either gold, failed to do any follow up scouting and then ignored his minimap which had revealed the all-in all while throwing down a third CC.
San placed a building incorrectly because he was under pressure from July. That isn't a series of odd decisions.
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Honestly, you don't even need that here. Occams razor does just fine.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor
The simplest explanation here (the one with the least amount of assumptions) is that MKP threw the match in order to make some people who bet money. That may not prove true later (I'd be shocked if it didn't) but in the "absence of differences in predictive ability—the fewer assumptions that are made, the better." We know the few facts, no one has better predictive ability than anyone else, so not assuming anything, what is the simplest explanation? It is that MKP threw the match.
Otherwise you either start making up crazy stories about how MKP missed the blatantly obvious and and why the betting lines were skewed.
Or you do what a lot of people here are doing, and try to make the burden of proof so ridiculously high than no one can "prove" anything for certain. It is the argument of the skeptic, and one that is have been proven wrong in philosophy and reality, oh so many times.
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On March 26 2015 04:33 hypercube wrote:
People who say that it's not proven are missing the point. You can't prove anything.
Even if MKP comes out and publically admits it there's still a chance that he's innocent. Maybe a crime syndicate is holding his girlfriend hostage and blackmailing him to admit to something he didn't do. Or Kespa convinced him to say it so that the fans see that they are actively fighting matchfixing. Or he got kidnapped by aliens and had his memories altered.
All evidence is circumstantial and potentially inconclusive. Which is why if you start from the position that you're 100% sure MKP would never cheat you'll end up with the conclusion that he's innocent. After all all these seemingly suspicious events have alternative explanations, which, however unlikely, are still more likely than MKP cheating (which has a probability of 0%).
Now, if you start with the assumption that there's a 0.1% chance MKP would participate in match-fixing during his career you'll end up with the conclusion that he's not unlikely to have done so in this game.
you're probably right but i will wait for the replay analysis and a possible explanation by marineking before jumping to any conclusions
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On March 26 2015 04:23 maGicc wrote:
[blah stuff]
And yet people are still "waiting for the evidence". Holy fucking dayum.
Sorry to bring this to you: This is how stuff in the real world works.
Unless you bring forth solid evidence all you are doing is throwing around speculations that do not solve any problems and only serve to create more.
So all you can do is either wait for someone to find evidence that this match was fixed or you can try to find it on your own. Everything else is unproductive bullshit...
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So is this not a big deal in Korea? Are Korean fans not thinking this was a thrown game? Surprised nothing from Kespa yet.
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On March 26 2015 04:29 BronzeKnee wrote Show nested quote +On March 26 2015 04:33 hypercube wrote:
Even if MKP comes out and publically admits it there's still a chance that he's innocent. Maybe a crime syndicate is holding his girlfriend hostage and blackmailing him to admit to something he didn't do. Or Kespa convinced him to say it so that the fans see that they are actively fighting matchfixing. Or he got kidnapped by aliens and had his memories altered.
The simplest explanation here (the one with the least amount of assumptions) is that MKP threw the match in order to make some people who bet money. That may not prove true later (I'd be shocked if it didn't) but in the "absence of differences in predictive ability—the fewer assumptions that are made, the better."
Otherwise you either start making up crazy stories about how MKP missed the blatantly obvious and and why the betting lines were skewed.
Well it has already happened.
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On March 26 2015 04:44 Charoisaur wrote:
you're probably right but i will wait for the replay analysis and a possible explanation by marineking before jumping to any conclusions
If by "replay" you mean an actual replay and not a vod - we will probably never see it, since its never going to be released to the public by Kespa
And chances of the any explanation by MKP, after he already threw his angry tantrum to the "gambling trash", without addressing any points at all, are pretty slim as well.
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The problem arises with many expressing their opinion on mkps hindsight as if no gamer, pro or not couldn't have missed that creep tumor, even a bronze could have done this and that as if proxies don't work on progamers. Crawler was not scouted from what I saw as some claim.
I have no interest in defending mkp nor shocked by match fixing, I'm just pointing out the usual witch hunting behavior.
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On March 26 2015 04:50 jinorazi wrote:
Crawler was not scouted from what I saw as some claim.
The minimap saw it clearly.
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On March 26 2015 04:23 maGicc wrote:
Rekrul confirms that matchfixing is rampant in the Proleague, espessialy amongs players who cant win $ legitly in the individual leagues (MKP fits the description perfectly)
MK finished second in Hot6ix Cup in December and got into Code S (where he basically failed because of his non-existent winrate in TvT), that alone nets him about 8000$ since December, that's way more than most other players in Proleague earned in that timespan. This is you being fixated on him being guilty, not an objective point of evidence.
By the way, how much is really known about the "matchfixing scene"? Like, do they just ask players nicely and hope they say "yes", or does it involve blackmail and threats? Are players that say "no" just left alone? Are there legit dangerous syndicates at work, or just individuals? If they are actually dangerous for the players, that makes things even worse.
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On March 26 2015 04:46 Nezgar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2015 04:23 maGicc wrote:
[blah stuff]
And yet people are still "waiting for the evidence". Holy fucking dayum. Sorry to bring this to you: This is how stuff in the real world works. Unless you bring forth solid evidence all you are doing is throwing around speculations that do not solve any problems and only serve to create more. So all you can do is either wait for someone to find evidence that this match was fixed or you can try to find it on your own. Everything else is unproductive bullshit...
Once again, examples of the "solid" evidence that would satisfy you?
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On March 26 2015 04:50 BronzeKnee wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2015 04:50 jinorazi wrote:
Crawler was not scouted from what I saw as some claim.
The minimap saw it clearly.
Tumor, not crawler.
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Guys, it's not (just) about the spine. Watch the game, try to explain his actions after he scouted what he did.
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On March 26 2015 04:53 Penev wrote:
Guys, it's not (just) about the spine. Watch the game, try to explain his actions after he scouted what he did.
there was nothing he can do after scouting, which was when creep was already in his base.
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On March 26 2015 04:50 jinorazi wrote:
The problem arises with many expressing their opinion on mkps hindsight as if no gamer, pro or not couldn't have missed that creep tumor, even a bronze could have done this and that as if proxies don't work on progamers. Crawler was not scouted from what I saw as some claim.
I have no interest in defending mkp nor shocked by match fixing, I'm just pointing out the usual witch hunting behavior.
It was on the minimap for almost a minute, and there was nothing else going on in the game.
A progamer might miss a blip on the minimap during the intense game of drops and harass and whatnot, but MKP was sitting on 1 base against a confirmed 1 base zerg proxy.
Saying that he didnt see a spine on his minimap for 1 minute in that exact position is a very, very tough sell. Espessialy when in any normal game he would be looking for hatcheries and spines, with the information he had from the scv scout.
And i wont even go into probability of him not checking his rocks even once againast 1base zerg in a legit game.
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On March 26 2015 04:54 jinorazi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2015 04:53 Penev wrote:
Guys, it's not (just) about the spine. Watch the game, try to explain his actions after he scouted what he did. there was nothing he can do after scouting, which was when creep was already in his base.
After he scouted the late pool and no natural!
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On March 26 2015 04:40 maGicc wrote:
^ Ever heard of the Bayesian probability?
I have no qualification in Statistics and Probabilities, sorry. However I think that we are just seeing things through a different prism ; you're talking probabilities while I'm talking about having basic respect towards a person that has not been proven guilty (yet).
On March 26 2015 04:43 BronzeKnee wrote:Honestly, you don't even need that here. Occams razor does just fine. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razorThe simplest explanation here (the one with the least amount of assumptions) is that MKP threw the match in order to make some people who bet money. That may not prove true later (I'd be shocked if it didn't) but in the "absence of differences in predictive ability—the fewer assumptions that are made, the better." We know the few facts, no one has better predictive ability than anyone else, so not assuming anything, what is the simplest explanation? It is that MKP threw the match. Otherwise you either start making up crazy stories about how MKP missed the blatantly obvious and and why the betting lines were skewed. Or you do what a lot of people here are doing, and try to make the burden of proof so ridiculously high than no one can "prove" anything for certain. It is the argument of the skeptic, and one that is have been proven wrong in philosophy and reality, oh so many times.
So the simplest explanation is the one that is true, eh? Right, that's a wonderful principle ; too bad that has probably been the basis of most condemnations of innocents in our judiciary system. Reality isn't "simple". Reality is complex. You can push this "fewer assumptions = better" thing up until absurdity and stupidity.
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On March 26 2015 04:53 jinorazi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2015 04:50 BronzeKnee wrote:On March 26 2015 04:50 jinorazi wrote:
Crawler was not scouted from what I saw as some claim.
The minimap saw it clearly. Tumor, not crawler.
Nah, it was a Spine Crawler building:
![[image loading]](http://s28.postimg.org/mzidha84d/MKP.png)
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On March 26 2015 04:54 jinorazi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2015 04:53 Penev wrote:
Guys, it's not (just) about the spine. Watch the game, try to explain his actions after he scouted what he did. there was nothing he can do after scouting, which was when creep was already in his base.
yeah there was nothing he could do with 2 reapers against slow lings at best.
Even IF he expects a one base allin (like some say), he doesn't build any bunkers, he doesn't really build any units which could defend AND he even places a third cc.
Sry, but this isn't "bad play", this is the most suspicious game i have EVER seen in sc2 by far. (and all of that even assumes he didn't see the spine on the minimap..)
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EPT
