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On March 26 2015 04:15 Big J wrote: I've watched this game for 5years now. I've seen people make the most retarted decisions. Under the assumption that MK really just missed the spine crawler outside of the rocks, I don't see why this should be considered any worse than any proplayer trying to make Mech work vs Protoss in a serious game. Brainfarts and overconfidence are going to happen. (from the gameplay perspective; the betting is a complete other topic)
No just no. Think for a second about what Marineking DID see. People defending him with the oh well he didn't see the proxy are IDIOTS. No natural base. No gold bases. Severely delayed spawning pool. Yet throws down a third CC. Your game knowledge is literally nil.
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On March 26 2015 05:07 Elentos wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2015 04:53 Penev wrote: Guys, it's not (just) about the spine. Watch the game, try to explain his actions after he scouted what he did. Try? Okay. He missed the dot on his minimap, nothing to be seen at his own natural or the golds. He then projects his own greedy playstyle on to ByuL, thinking that instead of playing an all-in, the man just expanded to one of his possible 3rd bases first (yes, sometimes players do that) and is going to play a standard game from that point on. He continues to not realise that there is an enemy building on the minimap and completely ignores that there might still be an all-in, going into full MarineKing mode, adding the 3rd CC. There. I tried. And you know what? Even if that was the legit thought process and exactly what happened, which is a .0001% chance, who would believe that story? Approximately nobody. If he's guilty, that's horrible, but if MK is actually somehow innocent, this whole debacle is also horrible, and he might end up leaving the scene either way. Nice try Elentos, I'll give you that. But what exactly is your stance in this? The ridiculously "bad" play plus the line movements?
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On March 26 2015 05:15 Wuster wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2015 05:08 jinorazi wrote:On March 26 2015 05:05 FFW_Rude wrote:On March 26 2015 04:53 jinorazi wrote:On March 26 2015 04:50 BronzeKnee wrote:On March 26 2015 04:50 jinorazi wrote: Crawler was not scouted from what I saw as some claim.
The minimap saw it clearly. Tumor, not crawler. Observer pointed 3times the crawler in MK vision in the VOD. Watching it again, MK seemed so destroy..... it was so sad to see. And i don't really like him. it was just sad to see his expression. i watched it again and yes its a crawler being built. Even if we ignore the visible crawler. I'm trying to think of a build where you have 2 reapers and keep them at home for ever. You go double reaper to scout and put early pressure to keep his early units at home I thought. If you suspect all-in then reapers are faster than literally every unit at that point of the game and you go look for them no? That's definitely what I see people doing with their hellions.
Especially when you're MKP. Of *all* terran players to have idle reapers, MKP? The dude is known for doing stupid shit and biting off more than he can chew.
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On March 26 2015 05:10 Swoopae wrote: Jinorazi we get that you don't think the match was fixed. You're wrong, and you've posted factually inaccurate info in the thread that was disproven about the crawler not being seen by the reaper, but you're entitled to your opinion as nothing can be 100% conclusive here. (edit: didn't see your above post, clearly you now agree the reaper saw the crawler)
If that's the case though what explanation do you have for enormous piles of money being bet on Byul in a best of 1 as a 11-1 favourite? Is this logical behaviour from a bettor to you? Would you expect Byul to win 92+ maps in a best of 100 against Marineking? Because that is what would need to occur for the bettor not to be lighting money on fire at that point.
If the betting was manipulated, and the match wasn't fixed, what possible explanation is there in your mind? If the betting wasn't manipulated, what expertise do you have that makes your judgement similar to the world's most reputable online sportsbook?
That is a great point.
- What the chances of betting lines being that skewed for a match between players of that skill level?
- What are the chances MKP doesn't check his minimap or see the big yellow dot on the mini map from 4:02 until 5:47, knowing his opponent isn't playing standard?
- What are the chances that MKP drops a third CC knowing his opponent hasn't expanded normally, and could be cheesing him?
- What are the chances that MKP doesn't scout more knowing his opponent isn't playing standard?
- What are the chances that MKP forgot about the backdoor rocks when he knows his opponent could be cheesing him?
The chance of any of those things happening is probably pretty low. But all of them combined?
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On March 26 2015 05:16 FFW_Rude wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2015 05:15 maGicc wrote:On March 26 2015 05:11 jinorazi wrote: i'm just saying its more likely mkp played horribly, as usual Its kinda funny but people seems to dismiss the possibility of MKP's previous "horrible plays" being matchfixing related as well. Did you know that hunger in the world was also his fault ? Give the guy a break for god sake
Its just the result of thinking rationally really. Since i assume that this match was 99.5% fixed its not that far stretched to assume that its not his first time of doing that. If in the near future we will find out that his "slump" was a result of him throwing matches i honestly would not be shocked one tiny bit.
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Otherworld one thing worth noting is we're not all demanding Marineking be thrown out of progaming forever or be thrown in jail or whatever. What we're demanding is a proper investigation, because the circumstantial evidence says he is likely to be guilty. Nobody on TL has the resources to conduct a proper investigation on the ground in Korea. Pinnacle has previously agreed to be cooperative with Kespa and share their data, i'm assuming on betting patterns, IP addresses etc. Kespa have access to the replay at very least and potentially access to the players in questions computers/bank accounts to clear them or gather more evidence etc. i'm sure they could investigate properly if they wanted to, after all, the Savior scandal was exposed through a proper investigation.
If this goes unresolved and uninvestigated, opinions will vary on each implicated player's guilt or innocence, but it's obviously awful for the SC2 scene in general especially if matches continue to get cancelled after ridiculous bets are made and players heavily bet against go on to lose in suspicious fashion.
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On March 26 2015 05:15 Wuster wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2015 05:08 jinorazi wrote:On March 26 2015 05:05 FFW_Rude wrote:On March 26 2015 04:53 jinorazi wrote:On March 26 2015 04:50 BronzeKnee wrote:On March 26 2015 04:50 jinorazi wrote: Crawler was not scouted from what I saw as some claim.
The minimap saw it clearly. Tumor, not crawler. Observer pointed 3times the crawler in MK vision in the VOD. Watching it again, MK seemed so destroy..... it was so sad to see. And i don't really like him. it was just sad to see his expression. i watched it again and yes its a crawler being built. Even if we ignore the visible crawler. I'm trying to think of a build where you have 2 reapers and keep them at home for ever. You go double reaper to scout and put early pressure to keep his early units at home I thought. If you suspect all-in then reapers are faster than literally every unit at that point of the game and you go look for them no? That's definitely what I see people doing with their hellions.
It is very probable he feared zergling speed, at one point his reapers went to the low ground ( i assume to check for banes morphing and not because he is flustered that he accidentally scouted a proxy spine and has no idea what to do to lose)
Any proxy hatchery or 1 base build will lose to even greedy non ebay terran builds if they are somewhat competent. Marineking should have had his third or a depot started by the rocks is the only suspicious part for me. I would still attribute this to a misread and bad eyesight of marineking.
Also after the dark/san bets being void wouldnt they make the betting lines look less skewed if they were going to fix the match since it will just get canceled anyway?
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On March 26 2015 05:21 FFW_Rude wrote: NVM Hehe, yeah, you didn't think that one completely through
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On March 26 2015 00:51 BisuDagger wrote:![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/b7btkwr.png) As a colorblind person, I might not notice that. edit:The color actually looks like neutral critters/artifacts from SC1. There's only an 8% chance MK would be color blind, and Blizzard introduced a color blind mode in the options to help those with red-green color blindness.
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On March 26 2015 05:23 duckk wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2015 05:15 Wuster wrote:On March 26 2015 05:08 jinorazi wrote:On March 26 2015 05:05 FFW_Rude wrote:On March 26 2015 04:53 jinorazi wrote:On March 26 2015 04:50 BronzeKnee wrote:On March 26 2015 04:50 jinorazi wrote: Crawler was not scouted from what I saw as some claim.
The minimap saw it clearly. Tumor, not crawler. Observer pointed 3times the crawler in MK vision in the VOD. Watching it again, MK seemed so destroy..... it was so sad to see. And i don't really like him. it was just sad to see his expression. i watched it again and yes its a crawler being built. Even if we ignore the visible crawler. I'm trying to think of a build where you have 2 reapers and keep them at home for ever. You go double reaper to scout and put early pressure to keep his early units at home I thought. If you suspect all-in then reapers are faster than literally every unit at that point of the game and you go look for them no? That's definitely what I see people doing with their hellions. It is very probable he feared zergling speed, at one point his reapers went to the low ground ( i assume to check for banes morphing and not because he is flustered that he accidentally scouted a proxy spine and has no idea what to do to lose) Any proxy hatchery or 1 base build will lose to even greedy non ebay terran builds if they are somewhat competent. Marineking should have had his third or a depot started by the rocks is the only suspicious part for me. I would still attribute this to a misread and bad eyesight of marineking. Also after the dark/san bets being void wouldnt they make the betting lines look less skewed if they were going to fix the match since it will just get canceled anyway? No it was not, the pool was late, he scouted that.
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On March 26 2015 05:24 Penev wrote:Hehe, yeah, you didn't think that one completely through 
You got the point if you read. English is not my main language so i was unsure. And realized that i didn't want to go that route.
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On March 26 2015 05:25 FFW_Rude wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2015 05:24 Penev wrote:On March 26 2015 05:21 FFW_Rude wrote: NVM Hehe, yeah, you didn't think that one completely through  You got the point if you read. English is not my main language so i was unsure. And realized that i didn't want to go that route. I know, I know, didn't mean it in a bad way
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On March 26 2015 05:27 Penev wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2015 05:25 FFW_Rude wrote:On March 26 2015 05:24 Penev wrote:On March 26 2015 05:21 FFW_Rude wrote: NVM Hehe, yeah, you didn't think that one completely through  You got the point if you read. English is not my main language so i was unsure. And realized that i didn't want to go that route. I know, I know, didn't mean it in a bad way
I know
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It sometimes happens to me that I send out my scv to scout but don't pay any attention to the things i scout because I'm so tired that I just play the early game in autopilot. i know I'm only masters and no progamer but I think on a really bad day it could happen to a pro too. Of course it's suspicous combined with the betting pattern but i don't think it's unthinkable that a progamer would play like this.
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On March 26 2015 05:17 Penev wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2015 05:07 Elentos wrote:On March 26 2015 04:53 Penev wrote: Guys, it's not (just) about the spine. Watch the game, try to explain his actions after he scouted what he did. Try? Okay. He missed the dot on his minimap, nothing to be seen at his own natural or the golds. He then projects his own greedy playstyle on to ByuL, thinking that instead of playing an all-in, the man just expanded to one of his possible 3rd bases first (yes, sometimes players do that) and is going to play a standard game from that point on. He continues to not realise that there is an enemy building on the minimap and completely ignores that there might still be an all-in, going into full MarineKing mode, adding the 3rd CC. There. I tried. And you know what? Even if that was the legit thought process and exactly what happened, which is a .0001% chance, who would believe that story? Approximately nobody. If he's guilty, that's horrible, but if MK is actually somehow innocent, this whole debacle is also horrible, and he might end up leaving the scene either way. Nice try Elentos, I'll give you that. But what exactly is your stance in this? The ridiculously "bad" play plus the line movements? Well, obviously it's far more likely that the match was fixed and MarineKing was supposed to lose all along, because that's the only explanation to the line movements we can reasonably come up with (the other being CJ herO betting all his money on ByuL <.<). The bad play makes it look worse, obviously, although MarineKing has looked far less than stellar this season so far, so there might be some... honesty (?) to the way he reacted. I mean, it's not like he would know before the game that he was gonna get proxy hatched. At least, I hope they don't have the audacity to go that far before the match.
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On March 26 2015 05:25 Penev wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2015 05:23 duckk wrote:On March 26 2015 05:15 Wuster wrote:On March 26 2015 05:08 jinorazi wrote:On March 26 2015 05:05 FFW_Rude wrote:On March 26 2015 04:53 jinorazi wrote:On March 26 2015 04:50 BronzeKnee wrote:On March 26 2015 04:50 jinorazi wrote: Crawler was not scouted from what I saw as some claim.
The minimap saw it clearly. Tumor, not crawler. Observer pointed 3times the crawler in MK vision in the VOD. Watching it again, MK seemed so destroy..... it was so sad to see. And i don't really like him. it was just sad to see his expression. i watched it again and yes its a crawler being built. Even if we ignore the visible crawler. I'm trying to think of a build where you have 2 reapers and keep them at home for ever. You go double reaper to scout and put early pressure to keep his early units at home I thought. If you suspect all-in then reapers are faster than literally every unit at that point of the game and you go look for them no? That's definitely what I see people doing with their hellions. It is very probable he feared zergling speed, at one point his reapers went to the low ground ( i assume to check for banes morphing and not because he is flustered that he accidentally scouted a proxy spine and has no idea what to do to lose) Any proxy hatchery or 1 base build will lose to even greedy non ebay terran builds if they are somewhat competent. Marineking should have had his third or a depot started by the rocks is the only suspicious part for me. I would still attribute this to a misread and bad eyesight of marineking. Also after the dark/san bets being void wouldnt they make the betting lines look less skewed if they were going to fix the match since it will just get canceled anyway? No it was not, the pool was late, he scouted that. Yeah people in this thread use so many assumptions, it's really disappointing. I guess people defending him with "misreading the situation" think he doesn't know the most simple pool/hatchery timings. He absolutely should have known that there has to be a hatch somewhere. He had two reapers and didn't search for this hatchery at all, why? Some people then argue, "well he thought it's a one base allin" (that makes no sense, but ok), well why didn't he scout with his reapers then? He still knew there can't be speed yet. He didn't build any bunkers. All of this doesn't add up, this isn't "bad play", this most likely is "bad throwing"
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On March 25 2015 16:56 Swoopae wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 07:35 Wuster wrote:On March 25 2015 07:33 Penev wrote:On March 25 2015 07:23 royalroadweed wrote: Kespa should launch an official investigation and really solve whats going on. Better them than the people here and on reddit doing their best impression of the mentalist. Of course there should be an official investigation but that doesn't mean people can't discuss the matter on the forums. If anything the public discussion might increase the pressure on the proper authorities to actually, finally, start such an investigation. To be fair, any investigation might be done very quietly so as not to tip people off. Since this involves gambling this may involve criminal charges too and that would definitely be done quietly as police usually don't talk about what they're doing. IIRC this is what happened with the Savi0r case, everything was dropped at once on the public. This is a strong possibility as to why we haven't heard from Kespa, but so is the possibility that Kespa is doing nothing/trying to sweep it under the rug because it looks bad
Remember that this sort of behavior isn't just bad for SC2 / KeSPA but actually criminal behavior in S. Korea (on the part of any player accepting money that is). The Savi0r scandal was most probably handled by the police with KeSPA's cooperation rather than by KeSPA themselves and turning things over to the police when they were done investigating.
So I'll be an optimist and presume there's some sort of investigation going on since KeSPA can't really cover this up from the legal system can they (I guess they might since they're a government entity iirc)?
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On March 26 2015 05:23 Swoopae wrote: Otherworld one thing worth noting is we're not all demanding Marineking be thrown out of progaming forever or be thrown in jail or whatever. What we're demanding is a proper investigation, because the circumstantial evidence says he is likely to be guilty. Nobody on TL has the resources to conduct a proper investigation on the ground in Korea. Pinnacle has previously agreed to be cooperative with Kespa and share their data, i'm assuming on betting patterns, IP addresses etc. Kespa have access to the replay at very least and potentially access to the players in questions computers/bank accounts to clear them or gather more evidence etc. i'm sure they could investigate properly if they wanted to, after all, the Savior scandal was exposed through a proper investigation.
If this goes unresolved and uninvestigated, opinions will vary on each implicated player's guilt or innocence, but it's obviously awful for the SC2 scene in general especially if matches continue to get cancelled after ridiculous bets are made and players heavily bet against go on to lose in suspicious fashion. I do totally agree with you on that, and something should be done to force KeSPA to react at this point. But as you said, scandals are exposed through proper investigations, not through people spreading assumptions as if they were accepted truth. That will only bring bad things for everyone, and that's what some people are doing in this thread.
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On March 26 2015 05:32 OtherWorld wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2015 05:23 Swoopae wrote: Otherworld one thing worth noting is we're not all demanding Marineking be thrown out of progaming forever or be thrown in jail or whatever. What we're demanding is a proper investigation, because the circumstantial evidence says he is likely to be guilty. Nobody on TL has the resources to conduct a proper investigation on the ground in Korea. Pinnacle has previously agreed to be cooperative with Kespa and share their data, i'm assuming on betting patterns, IP addresses etc. Kespa have access to the replay at very least and potentially access to the players in questions computers/bank accounts to clear them or gather more evidence etc. i'm sure they could investigate properly if they wanted to, after all, the Savior scandal was exposed through a proper investigation.
If this goes unresolved and uninvestigated, opinions will vary on each implicated player's guilt or innocence, but it's obviously awful for the SC2 scene in general especially if matches continue to get cancelled after ridiculous bets are made and players heavily bet against go on to lose in suspicious fashion. I do totally agree with you on that, and something should be done to force KeSPA to react at this point. But as you said, scandals are exposed through proper investigations, not through people spreading assumptions as if they were accepted truth. That will only bring bad things for everyone, and that's what some people are doing in this thread. Yes, people who defend this play and the "coincidence" that there was a voided bet use many assumptions, i agree completely
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