Is it possible that someone fed early information from the match ahead of the delay, I mean the proxy hatch was unscouted pretty early in the game so it was easy to call the game. Is this possible? I don't know how much of a window there is with betting in a proleague match. Or like someone else said it could of been the build orders that were leaked, 3 CC vs proxy hatch is another sure thing.
The build thing is a possibility but only if both coaches are leaking information to bettors and it still isn't a sure thing.
I've attended matches live in Korea (GSL Finals a couple years ago) and as far as I know the major leagues aren't on a significant enough delay to affect bettind, although someone in Korea could confirm that by getting a stream up while they're also at the event live.
I don't think this is related to the Olimoley revelations about delayed streams in minor tournaments, it wasn't clear that Byul was going to win against Marineking until the spines were burrowing in Marineking's main, that would have to be one hell of a delay given the lines were taken down several minutes before the match started due to the overwhelmingly suspicious bets being placed
On March 25 2015 19:37 lohdon wrote: I don't think that the video is proof of anything. The spine could have easily been missed especially if he mistakenly thought he was going to be one base baneling busted and his focus was on being ready to defend the front.
It looks very suspicious but there is not enough to call him guilty.
You build a bunker vs one base bane, and the reapers should be hopping down and up to check for lings or banes..
Not interested to take any sides or get into the speculations on matchfixing or not, but just in terms of gameplay what could have happened is interesting: - the spine crawler on the minimap could have been mistaken for an overlord, or plainly ignored. Keep in mind ByuL played yellow. There is no red dot on MKs minimap, what he sees is an extra dot that your brain could easily identify as part of a mineral line when you glance onto it. - the reapers can't hop up and down on Expedition Lost! The only way out is through the main ramp, and then the natural ramp. MK checked for a proxy hatch in the natural which wasn't there, so under the assumption of a frontal attack, just keeping the reapers behind his wall makes sense (no cliff escape). - it could happen that MK was really just off. It is not necessary to SCV scout when you reaper expand anyways. Due to the terrain on EL, reaper expand might not be the best build to begin with. So what could have happend was MK actually wanting to 1rax expand because of EL, out of habit starting a gas and upon realizing going reaper expand, but still SCV scouting as if it was a 1rax expand. At this point any player, pro or amateur, would start to question his timing sense and MK. MK proceeds to double check the obvious bases ByuL could have taken - both golds and MKs natural but doesn't find a hatchery. At this point, he might really think that ByuL went pool first, maybe something like 16/16 instead of 14/14. Now, I know that he technically scouted the Spine Crawler building, but he truely never scouted towards that location at the bottom of his base. What he did was move his reaper out of the way to start his Command Center at the ramp, which moved the reaper close enough to reveal the spine. But given that MK was building 2depots and a CC at the front at that moment in time, his camera could have very likely been too far up to actually have the spine on his screen ever. From there he proceeds to control his reaper in a way to cover the front of his base against a baneling or roach rush. Now a spine crawler rush aside, there is no reason to actually pay attention towards the backdoor of your base that early against Zerg. Both roaches and zerglings (which you can only have 4attack the rocks from the bottom!) take forever to actually break through.
I know this sounds a bit like a pile of made up bullshit, but everyone who has played SC2 has had those moments where you are tired and not very confident and you switch from idea to idea in your head and proceed to lose in the most embarassing way possible. I'm not saying this is what happened, but it can be. Statistically, we are bound to see such matches sometimes. I mean, this has also happened: + Show Spoiler +
I couldn't have worded it any better. This scenario doesn't seem so unlikely as many people here think.
On March 25 2015 19:42 xrayEU wrote: I don't understand how this can be matchfixing when there was like no money to be earn from betting on ByuL in this match, i mean the odds were like 1.1 on ByuL. If it was the otherway around ByuL throwing and MK winning @ 8 sure I would call matchfix as well.
The odds weren't 1.1 on Byul at the start, they were 1.73, and about 1.50 at the time when the suspicious bets started being made
See my post in this thread a few pages back where I list the approximate bets that would need to be made to move the line that far for a better explanation the bulk of the money didn't come in at 1.1, but what is suspicious is that it CONTINUED to come in at that price until Pinnacle took the line down
On March 25 2015 17:28 lichter wrote: Please try to contain your comments in one post. Multiple successive posts are discouraged because it tries to monopolize discussion.
Apologies on this point was trying to respond to a bunch of posts at once, please feel free to moderate my posts into a single post
This reminds me so much of a broodwar fixed game by fake yellow i think it was, where he drone scouted, saw the proxies (lol) made a 12 hatch anyway and then pulled all his drones before the attack even came and obv got crushed. And that was one of the worst thrown games, but i would say this is even worse throw-game execution.
On March 25 2015 19:04 Bohemond wrote: The way people are talking about how the game had to be a throw from MK because of how poorly he played is pathetic. As bad as the game was, I've seen far worse pro games over the years that I've been watching SC2. Hell, I don't remember who was playing, but I once watched a game on Frost in a major tournament where one of the players didn't move his scouting worker far enough into the main bases to see the other players buildings. He ended up 'scouting' every base, and didn't find his opponent .That is, just like MK potentially not seeing the spine, something that no pro player would ever do... except, he did.
The betting is odd and suspicious, however. I hope there's an investigation. It's possible that everyone is involved, or no one. But cool off with all the allegations. It's easy to throw out accusations, but remember that lives can be ruined from this kind of stuff.
I'm really disappointed with how lightly this thread is being moderated.
The thing is that this isn't just a mechanical mistake like not scouting far enough or not seeing a spine on the minimap.
Marineking KNEW that Byul went hatch first since he saw pool timing. He knows it's not in Byul's natural, at the gold bases or in his own natural.
He then made a deliberate choice not to scout around with his reaper. There is no reason not to do it, unless you don't want to find your opponent's hatchery. Marineking knows the speed timing since he saw the gas.
I would love to hear any Starcraft pro (or anyone really) give any reason why you wouldn't do it. I just can't think of a reason other that you don't want to scout the hatch.
This is not a simple mechanical error or a brainfart. He had to know what was going on.
It's easy to see that from the outside perspective, but just a few weeks ago Maru missed an obvious Nydus in his base and didn't react for at least 30 seconds, by then he had lost the game.
I'm not saying the he is innocent, only that he could be.
Maru missing the Nydus is very maybe equivalent of MK missing the spine + creep, but not of not scouting for the hatch he KNOWS must be there. It really doesn't make any sense. You scout a Zerg without a natural and late pool.. Come on man..
I still think there's a big difference between Maru missing a Nydus for ~15-20 seconds and MarineKing missing creep + spine for 2+ minutes. Does Nydus even show up as a dot on the minimap? I'm not sure.
He did not see the creep on his base.
Thanks, Aeromi.
For people that seem to have not seen Boucot's earlier post...
On March 25 2015 08:54 Yorkie wrote: Someone watch the replay from MK's pov. If he looks at the spine/creep then doesn't react that's damning. If not then there's no evidence that he simply didn't notice. It would be a monumental mistake, but stranger things can happen
J'ai regardé le replay. Il voit le premier point rouge a 3 minutes 59, il scoute rien. A 5 minutes 40 il a du creep dans sa main il check toujours pas. C'est que à 5 minutes 46 qu'il vient checker les rochers.
"I watched the replay. He sees the first red dot at 3:59, doesn't scout. At 5:40 he has creep in his main base, still doesn't scout. It's only at 5:46 that he checks the rocks."
Aeromi, just for giggles, could you confirm that you did watch the replay from MK's POV and that the above is what you saw?
(Note: I believe OGaming was in the game, as the KESPA approved French language stream, and that they have the replay. Not sure if they can release it without KESPA being upset about it. I also believe Aeromi watched it.)
On March 25 2015 21:13 Swoopae wrote: I don't see why people keep bringing up Maru, he's continually successful and I see no reason to suspect him in anything given there have been no suspicious betting patterns in his matches.
Obviously I can't conclusively rule anything out but I see no reason why he would be under suspicion for missing something that leads to a game loss in a map alone, by itself it doesn't mean anything it's when it's coupled with incredibly suspicious line movements in the betting that it's noteworthy. I could find 100 examples of game losing mistakes, and while yes, some of them may be as a result of a match being fixed most won't. It's the betting patterns coupled with such mistakes that make a match suspicious.
They're not bringing him up to incriminate him but rather to defend MK.
On March 25 2015 21:09 Rocket-Bear wrote: Pretty sure MKP plays with the green/red color. Alt + F so Byul is still red not yellow. Only yellow for spectators
On March 25 2015 21:13 Swoopae wrote: I don't see why people keep bringing up Maru, he's continually successful and I see no reason to suspect him in anything given there have been no suspicious betting patterns in his matches.
Obviously I can't conclusively rule anything out but I see no reason why he would be under suspicion for missing something that leads to a game loss in a map alone, by itself it doesn't mean anything it's when it's coupled with incredibly suspicious line movements in the betting that it's noteworthy. I could find 100 examples of game losing mistakes, and while yes, some of them may be as a result of a match being fixed most won't. It's the betting patterns coupled with such mistakes that make a match suspicious.
People bring up Maru because he is a recent case of a player having clearly vision of something on his minimap, yet not seeing it until it's too late. Yes it has nothing to do about matchfixing and Maru's mistake is far less important than MK's, but it is an interesting indicator.
On March 25 2015 19:37 lohdon wrote: I don't think that the video is proof of anything. The spine could have easily been missed especially if he mistakenly thought he was going to be one base baneling busted and his focus was on being ready to defend the front.
It looks very suspicious but there is not enough to call him guilty.
You build a bunker vs one base bane, and the reapers should be hopping down and up to check for lings or banes..
Not interested to take any sides or get into the speculations on matchfixing or not, but just in terms of gameplay what could have happened is interesting: - the spine crawler on the minimap could have been mistaken for an overlord, or plainly ignored. Keep in mind ByuL played yellow. There is no red dot on MKs minimap, what he sees is an extra dot that your brain could easily identify as part of a mineral line when you glance onto it. - the reapers can't hop up and down on Expedition Lost! The only way out is through the main ramp, and then the natural ramp. MK checked for a proxy hatch in the natural which wasn't there, so under the assumption of a frontal attack, just keeping the reapers behind his wall makes sense (no cliff escape). - it could happen that MK was really just off. It is not necessary to SCV scout when you reaper expand anyways. Due to the terrain on EL, reaper expand might not be the best build to begin with. So what could have happend was MK actually wanting to 1rax expand because of EL, out of habit starting a gas and upon realizing going reaper expand, but still SCV scouting as if it was a 1rax expand. At this point any player, pro or amateur, would start to question his timing sense and MK. MK proceeds to double check the obvious bases ByuL could have taken - both golds and MKs natural but doesn't find a hatchery. At this point, he might really think that ByuL went pool first, maybe something like 16/16 instead of 14/14. Now, I know that he technically scouted the Spine Crawler building, but he truely never scouted towards that location at the bottom of his base. What he did was move his reaper out of the way to start his Command Center at the ramp, which moved the reaper close enough to reveal the spine. But given that MK was building 2depots and a CC at the front at that moment in time, his camera could have very likely been too far up to actually have the spine on his screen ever. From there he proceeds to control his reaper in a way to cover the front of his base against a baneling or roach rush. Now a spine crawler rush aside, there is no reason to actually pay attention towards the backdoor of your base that early against Zerg. Both roaches and zerglings (which you can only have 4attack the rocks from the bottom!) take forever to actually break through.
I know this sounds a bit like a pile of made up bullshit, but everyone who has played SC2 has had those moments where you are tired and not very confident and you switch from idea to idea in your head and proceed to lose in the most embarassing way possible. I'm not saying this is what happened, but it can be. Statistically, we are bound to see such matches sometimes. I mean, this has also happened: + Show Spoiler +
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLt1ESy0S7U
Yeah I looked at the minimap again and it is way less visible than what I initially thought. Additionally you can see that he clearly moves his head towards the minimap only three times between the moment the spine gets in reaper vision range and the moment he looks surprised. Funny thing, when looking at the Maru vs Dark replay again, Dark was playing in blue, and the Nydus appears in Maru's cam as a blue dot on the blue-textured part of Overgrowth's main, which gives it less visibility.
Yeah it seems lohdon's scenario is certainly possible, especially looking at the POV video with player colors and MarineKing's camera control, he doesn't really pan at all except when microing units.
On March 25 2015 21:09 Rocket-Bear wrote: Pretty sure MKP plays with the green/red color. Alt + F so Byul is still red not yellow. Only yellow for spectators
The picture I posted was from the broadcast when the Observer did a first person shot of MK. Going into first person does switch you to the colors the player sees in SC2, right? In which case MK saw yellow.
I know the actual gameplay isn't the most relevant part of the discussion, but since many people hold it as major evidence against MK. I just wanted to point out that going full avilo with accusing players based on observed gameplay is not really the most sure method to identify anything.
On March 25 2015 21:09 Rocket-Bear wrote: Pretty sure MKP plays with the green/red color. Alt + F so Byul is still red not yellow. Only yellow for spectators
The picture I posted was from the broadcast when the Observer did a first person shot of MK. Going into first person does switch you to the colors the player sees in SC2, right? In which case MK saw yellow.
I know the actual gameplay isn't the most relevant part of the discussion, but since many people hold it as major evidence against MK. I just wanted to point out that going full avilo with accusing players based on observed gameplay is not really the most sure method to identify anything.
Yes, switching to a player's vision changes colors to what the player sees.
Sorry but you cannot tell me, that MK did all these things: Not see Yellow/Red Dot on Minimap Confusing Yellow/Red permanent Dod with Overlord. Despite Zergs dont send Overlords there. They send it near natural to get the status of the expo (cc first, lowground etc). Oh and Overlords cant be seen in FOW. Not seeing purple creep crawling in his base Seeing a definitly after hatch pool timing and 16 gas mined so far and thinking this must be 1 base bane bust. Even if 16/16, this pool would be ways faster and there would be more gas mined. He clicked on the gas at 4:01 youtube time, 16 gas was mined so far. HE SAW THIS. He also clicked on the pool 1-2 secs later seeing the HP of the pool and how long the pool has to be build. How can this be 1 base bane bust? With slow lings? No hatch? Sorry no way that this can be considered.
You can bring all this "justMKthings" up, but the theorycrafting of "one base bane bust" breaks down, when you see that he clicked the gas, clicked the pool and KNEW it cant be that stuff.
On March 25 2015 21:50 Clonester wrote: Sorry but you cannot tell me, that MK did all these things: Not see Yellow/Red Dot on Minimap Confusing Yellow/Red permanent Dod with Overlord. Despite Zergs dont send Overlords there. They send it near natural to get the status of the expo (cc first, lowground etc). Oh and Overlords cant be seen in FOW. Not seeing purple creep crawling in his base Seeing a definitly after hatch pool timing and 16 gas mined so far and thinking this must be 1 base bane bust. Even if 16/16, this pool would be ways faster and there would be more gas mined. He clicked on the gas at 4:01 youtube time, 16 gas was mined so far. HE SAW THIS. He also clicked on the pool 1-2 secs later seeing the HP of the pool and how long the pool has to be build. How can this be 1 base bane bust? With slow lings? No hatch? Sorry no way that this can be considered.
You can bring all this "justMKthings" up, but the theorycrafting of "one base bane bust" breaks down, when you see that he clicked the gas, clicked the pool and KNEW it cant be that stuff.
I agree. It's about scouting late pool/ no natural and not scouting for the proxy
On March 25 2015 21:50 Clonester wrote: Sorry but you cannot tell me, that MK did all these things: Not see Yellow/Red Dot on Minimap Confusing Yellow/Red permanent Dod with Overlord. Despite Zergs dont send Overlords there. They send it near natural to get the status of the expo (cc first, lowground etc). Oh and Overlords cant be seen in FOW. Not seeing purple creep crawling in his base Seeing a definitly after hatch pool timing and 16 gas mined so far and thinking this must be 1 base bane bust. Even if 16/16, this pool would be ways faster and there would be more gas mined. He clicked on the gas at 4:01 youtube time, 16 gas was mined so far. HE SAW THIS. He also clicked on the pool 1-2 secs later seeing the HP of the pool and how long the pool has to be build. How can this be 1 base bane bust? With slow lings? No hatch? Sorry no way that this can be considered.
You can bring all this "justMKthings" up, but the theorycrafting of "one base bane bust" breaks down, when you see that he clicked the gas, clicked the pool and KNEW it cant be that stuff.
I agree. It's about scouting late pool/ no natural and not scouting for the proxy
Players tilt, MK in particular. His behavior looks off as well, he was possibly tired/ill/some shit (although he didn't mention it in his FB post, so I guess we can rule that out sadly).
On March 25 2015 21:50 Clonester wrote: Sorry but you cannot tell me, that MK did all these things: Not see Yellow/Red Dot on Minimap Confusing Yellow/Red permanent Dod with Overlord. Despite Zergs dont send Overlords there. They send it near natural to get the status of the expo (cc first, lowground etc). Oh and Overlords cant be seen in FOW. Not seeing purple creep crawling in his base Seeing a definitly after hatch pool timing and 16 gas mined so far and thinking this must be 1 base bane bust. Even if 16/16, this pool would be ways faster and there would be more gas mined. He clicked on the gas at 4:01 youtube time, 16 gas was mined so far. HE SAW THIS. He also clicked on the pool 1-2 secs later seeing the HP of the pool and how long the pool has to be build. How can this be 1 base bane bust? With slow lings? No hatch? Sorry no way that this can be considered.
You can bring all this "justMKthings" up, but the theorycrafting of "one base bane bust" breaks down, when you see that he clicked the gas, clicked the pool and KNEW it cant be that stuff.
I agree. It's about scouting late pool/ no natural and not scouting for the proxy
Players tilt, MK in particular. His behavior looks off as well, he was possibly tired/ill/some shit (although he didn't mention it in his FB post, so I guess we can rule that out sadly).
I'm not saying it's definite proof, I'm saying it's the most suspicious part.
On March 25 2015 21:50 Clonester wrote: Sorry but you cannot tell me, that MK did all these things: Not see Yellow/Red Dot on Minimap Confusing Yellow/Red permanent Dod with Overlord. Despite Zergs dont send Overlords there. They send it near natural to get the status of the expo (cc first, lowground etc). Oh and Overlords cant be seen in FOW. Not seeing purple creep crawling in his base Seeing a definitly after hatch pool timing and 16 gas mined so far and thinking this must be 1 base bane bust. Even if 16/16, this pool would be ways faster and there would be more gas mined. He clicked on the gas at 4:01 youtube time, 16 gas was mined so far. HE SAW THIS. He also clicked on the pool 1-2 secs later seeing the HP of the pool and how long the pool has to be build. How can this be 1 base bane bust? With slow lings? No hatch? Sorry no way that this can be considered.
You can bring all this "justMKthings" up, but the theorycrafting of "one base bane bust" breaks down, when you see that he clicked the gas, clicked the pool and KNEW it cant be that stuff.
I agree. It's about scouting late pool/ no natural and not scouting for the proxy
Players tilt, MK in particular. His behavior looks off as well, he was possibly tired/ill/some shit (although he didn't mention it in his FB post, so I guess we can rule that out sadly).
I'm not saying it's definite proof, I'm saying it's the most suspicious part.
Definitely, yes. Not seeing the spine is something, and I can believe that he could miss it by pure lack of awareness/focus, but not even scouting shit around with his reapers while the pool isn't even done and that he knows that ByuL is doing strange shit is something else.
On March 25 2015 21:50 Clonester wrote: Sorry but you cannot tell me, that MK did all these things: Not see Yellow/Red Dot on Minimap Confusing Yellow/Red permanent Dod with Overlord. Despite Zergs dont send Overlords there. They send it near natural to get the status of the expo (cc first, lowground etc). Oh and Overlords cant be seen in FOW. Not seeing purple creep crawling in his base Seeing a definitly after hatch pool timing and 16 gas mined so far and thinking this must be 1 base bane bust. Even if 16/16, this pool would be ways faster and there would be more gas mined. He clicked on the gas at 4:01 youtube time, 16 gas was mined so far. HE SAW THIS. He also clicked on the pool 1-2 secs later seeing the HP of the pool and how long the pool has to be build. How can this be 1 base bane bust? With slow lings? No hatch? Sorry no way that this can be considered.
You can bring all this "justMKthings" up, but the theorycrafting of "one base bane bust" breaks down, when you see that he clicked the gas, clicked the pool and KNEW it cant be that stuff.
Yep exactly. There is no reason for him to not use his reapers any further. He has all the scouting he needs, i really don't know how people can defend this -.-
On March 25 2015 19:42 xrayEU wrote: I don't understand how this can be matchfixing when there was like no money to be earn from betting on ByuL in this match, i mean the odds were like 1.1 on ByuL. If it was the otherway around ByuL throwing and MK winning @ 8 sure I would call matchfix as well.
Assuming the terror plug was unrelated to the rest of the post. Wolf plugged a bunch of other twitters after. Interested to hear his thoughts on this and the Korean community's take on this. It really sucks, but i'm glad it's being taken seriously now that it's clear this is not just an isolated incident
It's unfair to call this solely 'the marineking scandal', given at least 4 players have had matches cancelled due to suspicious bets/losses and at least three other matches have experienced the unusual line movement. If match fixing is going on it isn't just one player that is guilty.
There is a chance that some of these are false positives with bettors manipulating the market on some games to make it harder to detect in the matches that are actually fixed, but the chance that every single one is a false positive is exceedingly slim.
EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/EmkT61H.jpg)
