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On March 25 2015 22:08 Swoopae wrote:
Assuming the terror plug was unrelated to the rest of the post. Wolf plugged a bunch of other twitters after. Interested to hear his thoughts on this and the Korean community's take on this. It really sucks, but i'm glad it's being taken seriously now that it's clear this is not just an isolated incident
It's unfair to call this solely 'the marineking scandal', given at least 4 players have had matches cancelled due to suspicious bets/losses and at least three other matches have experienced the unusual line movement. If match fixing is going on it isn't just one player that is guilty.
There is a chance that some of these are false positives with bettors manipulating the market on some games to make it harder to detect in the matches that are actually fixed, but the chance that every single one is a false positive is exceedingly slim.
What are the incriminated games so far?
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51664 Posts
San-Dark, Yoda-Bunny, Terror-Byul and MKP-Byul AFAIK
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I think there was one with innovation in it as well
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On March 25 2015 22:15 GTR wrote:
San-Dark, Yoda-Bunny, Terror-Byul and MKP-Byul AFAIK
Wasn't it that one map of Super-INnoVation?
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On March 25 2015 22:15 GTR wrote:
San-Dark, Yoda-Bunny, Terror-Byul and MKP-Byul AFAIK
TerrOr-ByuL from R1 or from R2? And yeah I believe that map 1 from Super vs INnoVation was in as well.
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Super-INnoVation G1.
Super won G1, INnoVation the series. Bets favered Super in G1 really high, while they where nearly on point with Aligulac and normal Predicitions for G2, and the series.
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On March 25 2015 22:01 Penev wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 21:59 OtherWorld wrote:On March 25 2015 21:56 Aeromi wrote:
Why follow TerrOr though? On March 25 2015 21:57 Penev wrote:On March 25 2015 21:50 Clonester wrote:
Sorry but you cannot tell me, that MK did all these things:
Not see Yellow/Red Dot on Minimap
Confusing Yellow/Red permanent Dod with Overlord. Despite Zergs dont send Overlords there. They send it near natural to get the status of the expo (cc first, lowground etc). Oh and Overlords cant be seen in FOW.
Not seeing purple creep crawling in his base
Seeing a definitly after hatch pool timing and 16 gas mined so far and thinking this must be 1 base bane bust. Even if 16/16, this pool would be ways faster and there would be more gas mined. He clicked on the gas at 4:01 youtube time, 16 gas was mined so far. HE SAW THIS. He also clicked on the pool 1-2 secs later seeing the HP of the pool and how long the pool has to be build. How can this be 1 base bane bust? With slow lings? No hatch? Sorry no way that this can be considered.
You can bring all this "justMKthings" up, but the theorycrafting of "one base bane bust" breaks down, when you see that he clicked the gas, clicked the pool and KNEW it cant be that stuff. I agree. It's about scouting late pool/ no natural and not scouting for the proxy Players tilt, MK in particular. His behavior looks off as well, he was possibly tired/ill/some shit (although he didn't mention it in his FB post, so I guess we can rule that out sadly). I'm not saying it's definite proof, I'm saying it's the most suspicious part.
No, the most suspicious part is that minutes before the match is starting someone is dumping tens of thousands for marineking to lose against all reasonable odds AND then marineking plays the worst game of his career.
This time the illogical betting patterns are supported by the gameplay. My estimate (7+ years in online gaming industry) for the betting patterns themselves being an indication of match-fixing is around 90-99% (1-10% for other explanations, which depend on the situation and can/cannot be ruled out, explained in the locked thread). Now Marineking's play (I'm not a sc2 expert, so could be wrong) I'd say is around 90-95% also.
P(match-fixing did occure) = 1 - P(match-fixing didn't occure) = 1 - P(betting can be explained)*P(MK's play can be explained) = ~0,9975, in any case less than 1% chance of no match-fixing .
Now that doesn't even take in to consideration any of the other factors: "knowledge" that match-fixing is going on, other suspicious/voided bets on games, Rekrul's post, Welmu's post etc.
So everyone who reads this post. Ask yourself the question. Which is more likely, match-fixing or no match-fixing?
edit: mehh screwup writing the calculations, fixed now
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On March 25 2015 22:03 OtherWorld wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 22:01 Penev wrote:On March 25 2015 21:59 OtherWorld wrote:Why follow TerrOr though? On March 25 2015 21:57 Penev wrote:On March 25 2015 21:50 Clonester wrote:
Sorry but you cannot tell me, that MK did all these things:
Not see Yellow/Red Dot on Minimap
Confusing Yellow/Red permanent Dod with Overlord. Despite Zergs dont send Overlords there. They send it near natural to get the status of the expo (cc first, lowground etc). Oh and Overlords cant be seen in FOW.
Not seeing purple creep crawling in his base
Seeing a definitly after hatch pool timing and 16 gas mined so far and thinking this must be 1 base bane bust. Even if 16/16, this pool would be ways faster and there would be more gas mined. He clicked on the gas at 4:01 youtube time, 16 gas was mined so far. HE SAW THIS. He also clicked on the pool 1-2 secs later seeing the HP of the pool and how long the pool has to be build. How can this be 1 base bane bust? With slow lings? No hatch? Sorry no way that this can be considered.
You can bring all this "justMKthings" up, but the theorycrafting of "one base bane bust" breaks down, when you see that he clicked the gas, clicked the pool and KNEW it cant be that stuff. I agree. It's about scouting late pool/ no natural and not scouting for the proxy Players tilt, MK in particular. His behavior looks off as well, he was possibly tired/ill/some shit (although he didn't mention it in his FB post, so I guess we can rule that out sadly). I'm not saying it's definite proof, I'm saying it's the most suspicious part. Definitely, yes. Not seeing the spine is something, and I can believe that he could miss it by pure lack of awareness/focus, but not even scouting shit around with his reapers while the pool isn't even done and that he knows that ByuL is doing strange shit is something else.
At this point, nodody but MK can say what goes through his head...
All we know is he's aware of something wierd, that's why he checked the gold. He prolly knows it's proxy hatch (since there nothing on Byul's third and nothing on the golds - it's very unlikely that Byul wants to hide an expansion in the corners of the map). He plays defensive : his ramp is walled off, his army is inside, ready to defend. He doesn't want to get caught outside, in the case when 35 speedlings are waiting at his natural ramp.
So the question is : if the proxy was at the "usual spot" (somewhere between the natural and third - like on other maps) would his defense have been successful? Franckly, it's a risky defense but can we dismiss the fact taht MK thinks it a viable defense, given his personnality and playstyle? I think not, but that's just me.
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On March 25 2015 21:50 Clonester wrote:
Sorry but you cannot tell me, that MK did all these things:
Not see Yellow/Red Dot on Minimap
Confusing Yellow/Red permanent Dod with Overlord. Despite Zergs dont send Overlords there. They send it near natural to get the status of the expo (cc first, lowground etc). Oh and Overlords cant be seen in FOW.
Not seeing purple creep crawling in his base
Seeing a definitly after hatch pool timing and 16 gas mined so far and thinking this must be 1 base bane bust. Even if 16/16, this pool would be ways faster and there would be more gas mined. He clicked on the gas at 4:01 youtube time, 16 gas was mined so far. HE SAW THIS. He also clicked on the pool 1-2 secs later seeing the HP of the pool and how long the pool has to be build. How can this be 1 base bane bust? With slow lings? No hatch? Sorry no way that this can be considered.
You can bring all this "justMKthings" up, but the theorycrafting of "one base bane bust" breaks down, when you see that he clicked the gas, clicked the pool and KNEW it cant be that stuff.
I think you are vastly overrating how visible something like this would be judging by that picture of the minimap, it's pretty easy to dismiss it on color and location. It's almost the same situation with Maru scouting the Nydus but the colors blend into the map and it is out of range of the camera hotkeys.
The reaction from the scout was clearly wrong, but of course that is the whole point of Byul's build. It's such an unorthodox strat the player doesn't expect it and defends it poorly and loses. I don't think Byul would do a strat that completely falls apart if you scout his main which is almost expected. This is not only MarineKing's reaction to a bane bust, but his safe build to any early aggression when he lacks full scouting information (much to the dismay of his fans).
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On March 25 2015 22:23 Jarree wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 22:01 Penev wrote:On March 25 2015 21:59 OtherWorld wrote:Why follow TerrOr though? On March 25 2015 21:57 Penev wrote:On March 25 2015 21:50 Clonester wrote:
Sorry but you cannot tell me, that MK did all these things:
Not see Yellow/Red Dot on Minimap
Confusing Yellow/Red permanent Dod with Overlord. Despite Zergs dont send Overlords there. They send it near natural to get the status of the expo (cc first, lowground etc). Oh and Overlords cant be seen in FOW.
Not seeing purple creep crawling in his base
Seeing a definitly after hatch pool timing and 16 gas mined so far and thinking this must be 1 base bane bust. Even if 16/16, this pool would be ways faster and there would be more gas mined. He clicked on the gas at 4:01 youtube time, 16 gas was mined so far. HE SAW THIS. He also clicked on the pool 1-2 secs later seeing the HP of the pool and how long the pool has to be build. How can this be 1 base bane bust? With slow lings? No hatch? Sorry no way that this can be considered.
You can bring all this "justMKthings" up, but the theorycrafting of "one base bane bust" breaks down, when you see that he clicked the gas, clicked the pool and KNEW it cant be that stuff. I agree. It's about scouting late pool/ no natural and not scouting for the proxy Players tilt, MK in particular. His behavior looks off as well, he was possibly tired/ill/some shit (although he didn't mention it in his FB post, so I guess we can rule that out sadly). I'm not saying it's definite proof, I'm saying it's the most suspicious part. No, the most suspicious part is that minutes before the match is starting someone is dumping tens of thousands for marineking to lose against all reasonable odds AND then marineking plays the worst game of his career. This time the illogical betting patterns are supported by the gameplay. My estimate (7+ years in online gaming industry) for the betting patterns themselves being an indication of match-fixing is around 90-99% (1-10% for other explanations, which depend on the situation and can/cannot be ruled out, explained in the locked thread). Now Marineking's play (I'm not a sc2 expert, so could be wrong) I'd say is around 90-95% also. P(match-fixing did occure) = 1 - P(match-fixing didn't occure) = 1 - P(betting can be explained)*P(MK's play can be explained) = ~0,0025, less than 1% in any case. Now that doesn't even take in to consideration any of the other factors: "knowledge" that match-fixing is going on, other suspicious/voided bets on games, Rekrul's post, Welmu's post etc. So everyone who reads this post. Ask yourself the question. Which is more likely, match-fixing or no match-fixing?
Of course it is, I just meant the most suspicious part of MK's play.
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Swoopae, how does it work on Pinnacle when they cancel the betting? Do they keep all money or give it back to the betters?
If they give it back (I think they keep it from what I picked up reading the thread), it would be easy to kind of DDoS the betting by just placing multiple super suspicious bets until Pinnacle pulls the plug.
Also I suppose there are other eSports bettings sites, what about them? Did they cancel bets and/or make statements?
I must say, having slept on it and read a few more pages of thread, I myself am starting to come out of my delusion and believe MarineKing is guilty. Sad shit...
Edit: And I just want to quote Big J's message which concerns how likely it is that MarineKing legitimately played that way
On March 25 2015 21:06 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 19:40 Jono7272 wrote:On March 25 2015 19:37 lohdon wrote:
I don't think that the video is proof of anything. The spine could have easily been missed especially if he mistakenly thought he was going to be one base baneling busted and his focus was on being ready to defend the front.
It looks very suspicious but there is not enough to call him guilty. You build a bunker vs one base bane, and the reapers should be hopping down and up to check for lings or banes.. Not interested to take any sides or get into the speculations on matchfixing or not, but just in terms of gameplay what could have happened is interesting: - the spine crawler on the minimap could have been mistaken for an overlord, or plainly ignored. Keep in mind ByuL played yellow. There is no red dot on MKs minimap, what he sees is an extra dot that your brain could easily identify as part of a mineral line when you glance onto it. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/EmkT61H.jpg) - the reapers can't hop up and down on Expedition Lost! The only way out is through the main ramp, and then the natural ramp. MK checked for a proxy hatch in the natural which wasn't there, so under the assumption of a frontal attack, just keeping the reapers behind his wall makes sense (no cliff escape). - it could happen that MK was really just off. It is not necessary to SCV scout when you reaper expand anyways. Due to the terrain on EL, reaper expand might not be the best build to begin with. So what could have happend was MK actually wanting to 1rax expand because of EL, out of habit starting a gas and upon realizing going reaper expand, but still SCV scouting as if it was a 1rax expand. At this point any player, pro or amateur, would start to question his timing sense and MK. MK proceeds to double check the obvious bases ByuL could have taken - both golds and MKs natural but doesn't find a hatchery. At this point, he might really think that ByuL went pool first, maybe something like 16/16 instead of 14/14. Now, I know that he technically scouted the Spine Crawler building, but he truely never scouted towards that location at the bottom of his base. What he did was move his reaper out of the way to start his Command Center at the ramp, which moved the reaper close enough to reveal the spine. But given that MK was building 2depots and a CC at the front at that moment in time, his camera could have very likely been too far up to actually have the spine on his screen ever. From there he proceeds to control his reaper in a way to cover the front of his base against a baneling or roach rush. Now a spine crawler rush aside, there is no reason to actually pay attention towards the backdoor of your base that early against Zerg. Both roaches and zerglings (which you can only have 4attack the rocks from the bottom!) take forever to actually break through. I know this sounds a bit like a pile of made up bullshit, but everyone who has played SC2 has had those moments where you are tired and not very confident and you switch from idea to idea in your head and proceed to lose in the most embarassing way possible. I'm not saying this is what happened, but it can be. Statistically, we are bound to see such matches sometimes. I mean, this has also happened: + Show Spoiler +
I think all of this is true, people are like "wouldn't happened to a silver league player", but it certainly could happen to me (and I'm no silver league :D).The problem is that + the betting lines = too much.
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On March 25 2015 22:14 OtherWorld wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 22:08 Swoopae wrote:
Assuming the terror plug was unrelated to the rest of the post. Wolf plugged a bunch of other twitters after. Interested to hear his thoughts on this and the Korean community's take on this. It really sucks, but i'm glad it's being taken seriously now that it's clear this is not just an isolated incident
It's unfair to call this solely 'the marineking scandal', given at least 4 players have had matches cancelled due to suspicious bets/losses and at least three other matches have experienced the unusual line movement. If match fixing is going on it isn't just one player that is guilty.
There is a chance that some of these are false positives with bettors manipulating the market on some games to make it harder to detect in the matches that are actually fixed, but the chance that every single one is a false positive is exceedingly slim. What are the incriminated games so far?
Incriminated players are San, Inno and Marineking
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Edit : we just keep throwing the same points at each other over and over, it makes no sense. I delete my post and stop reading this thread, and everybody should do the same at this point tbh.
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On March 25 2015 22:27 ZenithM wrote:
Swoopae, how does it work on Pinnacle when they cancel the betting? Do they keep all money or give it back to the betters?
If they give it back (I think they keep it from what I picked up reading the thread), it would be easy to kind of DDoS the betting by just placing multiple super suspicious bets until Pinnacle pulls the plug.
Also I suppose there are other eSports bettings sites, what about them? Did they cancel bets and/or make statements?
I must say, having slept on it and read a few more pages of thread, I myself am starting to come out of my delusion and believe MarineKing is guilty. Sad shit...
Wouldn't keeping the money be outright theft!? :-S
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On March 25 2015 22:23 Gwavajuice wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 22:03 OtherWorld wrote:On March 25 2015 22:01 Penev wrote:On March 25 2015 21:59 OtherWorld wrote:Why follow TerrOr though? On March 25 2015 21:57 Penev wrote:On March 25 2015 21:50 Clonester wrote:
Sorry but you cannot tell me, that MK did all these things:
Not see Yellow/Red Dot on Minimap
Confusing Yellow/Red permanent Dod with Overlord. Despite Zergs dont send Overlords there. They send it near natural to get the status of the expo (cc first, lowground etc). Oh and Overlords cant be seen in FOW.
Not seeing purple creep crawling in his base
Seeing a definitly after hatch pool timing and 16 gas mined so far and thinking this must be 1 base bane bust. Even if 16/16, this pool would be ways faster and there would be more gas mined. He clicked on the gas at 4:01 youtube time, 16 gas was mined so far. HE SAW THIS. He also clicked on the pool 1-2 secs later seeing the HP of the pool and how long the pool has to be build. How can this be 1 base bane bust? With slow lings? No hatch? Sorry no way that this can be considered.
You can bring all this "justMKthings" up, but the theorycrafting of "one base bane bust" breaks down, when you see that he clicked the gas, clicked the pool and KNEW it cant be that stuff. I agree. It's about scouting late pool/ no natural and not scouting for the proxy Players tilt, MK in particular. His behavior looks off as well, he was possibly tired/ill/some shit (although he didn't mention it in his FB post, so I guess we can rule that out sadly). I'm not saying it's definite proof, I'm saying it's the most suspicious part. Definitely, yes. Not seeing the spine is something, and I can believe that he could miss it by pure lack of awareness/focus, but not even scouting shit around with his reapers while the pool isn't even done and that he knows that ByuL is doing strange shit is something else. At this point, nodody but MK can say what goes through his head... All we know is he's aware of something wierd, that's why he checked the gold. He prolly knows it's proxy hatch (since there nothing on Byul's third and nothing on the golds - it's very unlikely that Byul wants to hide an expansion in the corners of the map). He plays defensive : his ramp is walled off, his army is inside, ready to defend. He doesn't want to get caught outside, in the case when 35 speedlings are waiting at his natural ramp. So the question is : if the proxy was at the "usual spot" (somewhere between the natural and third - like on other maps) would his defense have been successful? Franckly, it's a risky defense but can we dismiss the fact taht MK thinks it a viable defense, given his personnality and playstyle? I think not, but that's just me.
However at ~3:20 in game time, he scouts that the pool isn't even half done. At 3:48 he sends his reaper back to his main, while he knows that speed is not even close to being done. He risked nothing, nothing, by sending his reaper around, and considering the reaper's speed the chance of him scouting the proxy before speed finished would have been pretty high. He also doesn't scout for the second gold base, while he could have done that with both the SCV and the reaper. At 4:34 he sends his two reapers back into the main, because he had started to move them around in the natural. Speed is not even at 1/4 of completion. Come on. He is facing a Zerg player who has one base and no zergling speed for a while. He has two of the most mobile units in the game. And yet his map vision is basically nonexistent.
Now this isn't proof that he is throwing the game, but you have to admit that even for MarineKing, that's far, far from being even "decent" play.
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On March 25 2015 22:23 Gwavajuice wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 22:03 OtherWorld wrote:On March 25 2015 22:01 Penev wrote:On March 25 2015 21:59 OtherWorld wrote:Why follow TerrOr though? On March 25 2015 21:57 Penev wrote:On March 25 2015 21:50 Clonester wrote:
Sorry but you cannot tell me, that MK did all these things:
Not see Yellow/Red Dot on Minimap
Confusing Yellow/Red permanent Dod with Overlord. Despite Zergs dont send Overlords there. They send it near natural to get the status of the expo (cc first, lowground etc). Oh and Overlords cant be seen in FOW.
Not seeing purple creep crawling in his base
Seeing a definitly after hatch pool timing and 16 gas mined so far and thinking this must be 1 base bane bust. Even if 16/16, this pool would be ways faster and there would be more gas mined. He clicked on the gas at 4:01 youtube time, 16 gas was mined so far. HE SAW THIS. He also clicked on the pool 1-2 secs later seeing the HP of the pool and how long the pool has to be build. How can this be 1 base bane bust? With slow lings? No hatch? Sorry no way that this can be considered.
You can bring all this "justMKthings" up, but the theorycrafting of "one base bane bust" breaks down, when you see that he clicked the gas, clicked the pool and KNEW it cant be that stuff. I agree. It's about scouting late pool/ no natural and not scouting for the proxy Players tilt, MK in particular. His behavior looks off as well, he was possibly tired/ill/some shit (although he didn't mention it in his FB post, so I guess we can rule that out sadly). I'm not saying it's definite proof, I'm saying it's the most suspicious part. Definitely, yes. Not seeing the spine is something, and I can believe that he could miss it by pure lack of awareness/focus, but not even scouting shit around with his reapers while the pool isn't even done and that he knows that ByuL is doing strange shit is something else. At this point, nodody but MK can say what goes through his head... All we know is he's aware of something wierd, that's why he checked the gold. He prolly knows it's proxy hatch (since there nothing on Byul's third and nothing on the golds - it's very unlikely that Byul wants to hide an expansion in the corners of the map). He plays defensive : his ramp is walled off, his army is inside, ready to defend. He doesn't want to get caught outside, in the case when 35 speedlings are waiting at his natural ramp. So the question is : if the proxy was at the "usual spot" (somewhere between the natural and third - like on other maps) would his defense have been successful? Franckly, it's a risky defense but can we dismiss the fact taht MK thinks it a viable defense, given his personnality and playstyle? I think not, but that's just me.
He knows there cant be any speedlings, he scouted the gas timing. It makes NO SENSE to not use his reapers
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On March 25 2015 22:27 ZenithM wrote:
Swoopae, how does it work on Pinnacle when they cancel the betting? Do they keep all money or give it back to the betters?
If they give it back (I think they keep it from what I picked up reading the thread), it would be easy to kind of DDoS the betting by just placing multiple super suspicious bets until Pinnacle pulls the plug.
Also I suppose there are other eSports bettings sites, what about them? Did they cancel bets and/or make statements?
I must say, having slept on it and read a few more pages of thread, I myself am starting to come out of my delusion and believe MarineKing is guilty. Sad shit...
You get your money back. Well... If you have the money maybe you can do it. But what for? so you get the same money back that you paid to possibly void the bet? What if it doesn't work? I don't really see what you are going for...
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On March 25 2015 22:27 ZenithM wrote:
Swoopae, how does it work on Pinnacle when they cancel the betting? Do they keep all money or give it back to the betters?
If they give it back (I think they keep it from what I picked up reading the thread), it would be easy to kind of DDoS the betting by just placing multiple super suspicious bets until Pinnacle pulls the plug.
Also I suppose there are other eSports bettings sites, what about them? Did they cancel bets and/or make statements?
I must say, having slept on it and read a few more pages of thread, I myself am starting to come out of my delusion and believe MarineKing is guilty. Sad shit...
They do not keep money after voiding the bets. They pay back the amount of money you have used to bet on that game 100%. Everything else would be not voiding a bet, but stealing. And Pinnicale is not a run down garage company.
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On March 25 2015 22:15 GTR wrote:
San-Dark, Yoda-Bunny, Terror-Byul and MKP-Byul AFAIK
Full list
Matches cancelled by Pinnacle (basically they say the match was fixed/manipulated by doing so)
San vs Dark
Innovation vs Super map 1
Super vs Dream map 1
Marineking vs Byul
These are the four main ones that Pinnacle cancelled action on after suspicious line movement/player bet against lost
Other matches expert bettors find suspicious due to unusual line movements that weren't cancelled by Pinnacle afaik
Yoda vs Bunny (not as extreme as other steam but last minute Yoda went from -150 to +200 with a huge sea of money coming on Bunny, note I haven't watched this match yet)
Alive vs Dark (weird steam on Dark from -250ish to -689 then back to -288 could be match fixers trying to mess with Pinnacle's algorithms to get other bets through)
Terror vs Byul (the more recent one Byul won, massive steam on Terror, again could be match fixers screwing with the algorithm to win more money elsewhere by making sure bets dont get cancelled, Terror got bet in from a huge dog to a moderate favourite but then lost, this is the only match where the player in question that all of the money was bet on lost)
If I was going to start an investigation, i'd start with the four matches cancelled by Pinnacle, followed by these matches. Note there may be some false positives, but if none of the matches above were found to be fixed then I would take back anything i've said about matches being fixed in Korean leagues.
Then information i've received via PM but haven't had a chance to verify the legitimacy of as follows
Allegedly some of Innovations matches during Hot6 cup last year had suspicious line movement although I haven't looked into that in depth
and I received a PM about Classic vs Soo Code S final being fixed here on TL from a poster who wants to remain anonymous but claims to have received information from insiders in Korea that this match was fixed (I haven't had the time to look into whether there was suspicious line movement yet and it was so long ago I can't recall the line movement but i've contacted a friend with a database to look into it to see if there was anything unusual)
I can provide a screenshot of the PM to a mod upon request, with the poster's name blacked out at their request
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On March 25 2015 22:25 Jermius wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2015 21:50 Clonester wrote:
Sorry but you cannot tell me, that MK did all these things:
Not see Yellow/Red Dot on Minimap
Confusing Yellow/Red permanent Dod with Overlord. Despite Zergs dont send Overlords there. They send it near natural to get the status of the expo (cc first, lowground etc). Oh and Overlords cant be seen in FOW.
Not seeing purple creep crawling in his base
Seeing a definitly after hatch pool timing and 16 gas mined so far and thinking this must be 1 base bane bust. Even if 16/16, this pool would be ways faster and there would be more gas mined. He clicked on the gas at 4:01 youtube time, 16 gas was mined so far. HE SAW THIS. He also clicked on the pool 1-2 secs later seeing the HP of the pool and how long the pool has to be build. How can this be 1 base bane bust? With slow lings? No hatch? Sorry no way that this can be considered.
You can bring all this "justMKthings" up, but the theorycrafting of "one base bane bust" breaks down, when you see that he clicked the gas, clicked the pool and KNEW it cant be that stuff. I think you are vastly overrating how visible something like this would be judging by that picture of the minimap, it's pretty easy to dismiss it on color and location. It's almost the same situation with Maru scouting the Nydus but the colors blend into the map and it is out of range of the camera hotkeys. The reaction from the scout was clearly wrong, but of course that is the whole point of Byul's build. It's such an unorthodox strat the player doesn't expect it and defends it poorly and loses. I don't think Byul would do a strat that completely falls apart if you scout his main which is almost expected. This is not only MarineKing's reaction to a bane bust, but his safe build to any early aggression when he lacks full scouting information (much to the dismay of his fans).
This Proxy Location has just been used by Symbol on the same map, same spot (tho dircetly in the base behind rocks, not so near to the rocks. It is not uncommon.
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EPT
