On March 25 2015 22:27 ZenithM wrote: Swoopae, how does it work on Pinnacle when they cancel the betting? Do they keep all money or give it back to the betters? If they give it back (I think they keep it from what I picked up reading the thread), it would be easy to kind of DDoS the betting by just placing multiple super suspicious bets until Pinnacle pulls the plug.
Also I suppose there are other eSports bettings sites, what about them? Did they cancel bets and/or make statements?
I must say, having slept on it and read a few more pages of thread, I myself am starting to come out of my delusion and believe MarineKing is guilty. Sad shit...
Wouldn't keeping the money be outright theft!? :-S
Yes, it would be.
They don't keep the money they refund all players who bet on either player in full when a match is cancelled due to 'fraudulent market manipulation'
I've had one losing bet and two winning bets refunded so far (I had money on San vs Dark, Innovation to win the series vs Super (they cancelled all bets on that even though Match 1 was the only match with suspicious betting) and on Byul vs Marineking). I didn't have bets placed on any of the other matches in question.
On March 25 2015 22:15 GTR wrote: San-Dark, Yoda-Bunny, Terror-Byul and MKP-Byul AFAIK
Full list
Matches cancelled by Pinnacle (basically they say the match was fixed/manipulated by doing so)
San vs Dark Innovation vs Super map 1 Super vs Dream map 1 Marineking vs Byul
These are the four main ones that Pinnacle cancelled action on after suspicious line movement/player bet against lost
Other matches expert bettors find suspicious due to unusual line movements that weren't cancelled by Pinnacle afaik
Yoda vs Bunny (not as extreme as other steam but last minute Yoda went from -150 to +200 with a huge sea of money coming on Bunny, note I haven't watched this match yet) Alive vs Dark (weird steam on Dark from -250ish to -689 then back to -288 could be match fixers trying to mess with Pinnacle's algorithms to get other bets through) Terror vs Byul (the more recent one Byul won, massive steam on Terror, again could be match fixers screwing with the algorithm to win more money elsewhere by making sure bets dont get cancelled, Terror got bet in from a huge dog to a moderate favourite but then lost, this is the only match where the player in question that all of the money was bet on lost)
If I was going to start an investigation, i'd start with the four matches cancelled by Pinnacle, followed by these matches. Note there may be some false positives, but if none of the matches above were found to be fixed then I would take back anything i've said about matches being fixed in Korean leagues.
Then information i've received via PM but haven't had a chance to verify the legitimacy of as follows
Allegedly some of Innovations matches during Hot6 cup last year had suspicious line movement although I haven't looked into that in depth
and I received a PM about Classic vs Soo Code S final being fixed here on TL from a poster who wants to remain anonymous but claims to have received information from insiders in Korea that this match was fixed (I haven't had the time to look into whether there was suspicious line movement yet and it was so long ago I can't recall the line movement but i've contacted a friend with a database to look into it to see if there was anything unusual)
I can provide a screenshot of the PM to a mod upon request, with the poster's name blacked out at their request
The list is interesting to see. All players but INnoVation belong to non-KeSPA teams.
On March 25 2015 22:27 ZenithM wrote: Swoopae, how does it work on Pinnacle when they cancel the betting? Do they keep all money or give it back to the betters? If they give it back (I think they keep it from what I picked up reading the thread), it would be easy to kind of DDoS the betting by just placing multiple super suspicious bets until Pinnacle pulls the plug.
Also I suppose there are other eSports bettings sites, what about them? Did they cancel bets and/or make statements?
I must say, having slept on it and read a few more pages of thread, I myself am starting to come out of my delusion and believe MarineKing is guilty. Sad shit...
You get your money back. Well... If you have the money maybe you can do it. But what for? so you get the same money back that you paid to possibly void the bet? What if it doesn't work? I don't really see what you are going for...
I'm obviously going for my dream scenario where a malicious conspiracy is trying to destroy eSportS and MarineKing by making bets until Pinnacle pulls the plug :D. As it wouldn't take any money aside from a buffer of up to 100k splitted among several people, you could just bet like this when an underdog is likely to lose horribly and it looks like match fixing afterwards. Apparently there even has been a case where the betting pattern looked like match fixing but it ended up being the other player who won.
I'm not saying this is the most likely scenario but I can't see how this is unfeasible (and I've myself tried to do more idiotic malicious shit than ruin some competitive video game scene so I can see the appeal). Obviously I still believe that MarineKing match-fixed, so yeah, I'm not even able to convince myself that this must be what happened :D
On March 25 2015 22:27 ZenithM wrote: Swoopae, how does it work on Pinnacle when they cancel the betting? Do they keep all money or give it back to the betters? If they give it back (I think they keep it from what I picked up reading the thread), it would be easy to kind of DDoS the betting by just placing multiple super suspicious bets until Pinnacle pulls the plug.
Also I suppose there are other eSports bettings sites, what about them? Did they cancel bets and/or make statements?
I must say, having slept on it and read a few more pages of thread, I myself am starting to come out of my delusion and believe MarineKing is guilty. Sad shit...
Wouldn't keeping the money be outright theft!? :-S
Well, nothing is theft if you signed the right contract with Pinnacle. I don't know how betting works (and frankly imo it's not really far from theft altogether anyway). If they say in their contract that they reserve the right to cancel all bets and keep the money well you're fucked. It's not like it's obviously different to lose your money to Pinnacle or to lose it to a random better on the other end of the bet. But yeah, it's probably theft for legit companies...:D
Sorry but he scouted the pool timing, he knew there had to be a hatch somewhere, there is no way you will ignore a dot on the minimap ever in that scenario. Also the first overlord of the zerg goes to the terran natural first 99% of the time, so that the zerg can see the cc timing. There was no way the overlord would actually be at that spot at that time of the game since it was too early for the second overlord to arrive. On top of that he should have at least checked around with his reaper more to check for the proxy hatch. But he Just happily throws down a third cc when he knows he's getting 1 base allined. I dont think anyone with a brain can make this many mistakes early game, so it's pretty clear to me he threw the game
Edit: the spine was also out of vision again after he saw it, an overlord doesn't keep being on the minimap out of vision, so it's really no excuse
Wow, kinda sad that there are so many of these shady illegal Koreans bets that many important matches have been recognized as fixed publicly.
What I don't understand is why the people pulling the strings didn't tell ByuL to just play a macro game and MKP to play poorly, instead of this shit where it's blatant obvious that there is something weird. Sounds like the fixers wanted to show the game is fixed on purpose.
Pinnacle do not keep any money when bets are cancelled. Can we please stop talking about that it's irrelevant all bettors get refunded in full.
Poopi - there is no reason to involve the winning player in match fixing you only need to involve the losing player. The winning player is trying to win regardless of whether the match is legitimate or fixed so why would you need to involve them?
On March 25 2015 22:50 Poopi wrote: Wow, kinda sad that there are so many of these shady illegal Koreans bets that many important matches have been recognized as fixed publicly.
What I don't understand is why the people pulling the strings didn't tell ByuL to just play a macro game and MKP to play poorly, instead of this shit where it's blatant obvious that there is something weird. Sounds like the fixers wanted to show the game is fixed on purpose.
It's unlikely that ByuL was part of the match-fixing. Otherwise as you said it wouldn't have been that obvious. It's probably only MarineKing who was involved, scouted the obvious cheese by accident and didn't know what to do to lose and make it look normal.
On March 25 2015 22:50 Poopi wrote: Wow, kinda sad that there are so many of these shady illegal Koreans bets that many important matches have been recognized as fixed publicly.
What I don't understand is why the people pulling the strings didn't tell ByuL to just play a macro game and MKP to play poorly, instead of this shit where it's blatant obvious that there is something weird. Sounds like the fixers wanted to show the game is fixed on purpose.
Because Byul probably wasn't involved? If this matchfixing is actually true then Marineking probably got really unlucky that byul did such a poorly executed allin.
On March 25 2015 22:50 Poopi wrote: Wow, kinda sad that there are so many of these shady illegal Koreans bets that many important matches have been recognized as fixed publicly.
What I don't understand is why the people pulling the strings didn't tell ByuL to just play a macro game and MKP to play poorly, instead of this shit where it's blatant obvious that there is something weird. Sounds like the fixers wanted to show the game is fixed on purpose.
I highly doubt Byul is involved in this. Why would someone pay him to play normal and win?
On March 25 2015 22:50 Poopi wrote: Wow, kinda sad that there are so many of these shady illegal Koreans bets that many important matches have been recognized as fixed publicly.
What I don't understand is why the people pulling the strings didn't tell ByuL to just play a macro game and MKP to play poorly, instead of this shit where it's blatant obvious that there is something weird. Sounds like the fixers wanted to show the game is fixed on purpose.
Only the loser needs to be in on the fixing, it just so happened that byul made it hard for him with his build choice
On March 25 2015 22:50 Poopi wrote: Wow, kinda sad that there are so many of these shady illegal Koreans bets that many important matches have been recognized as fixed publicly.
What I don't understand is why the people pulling the strings didn't tell ByuL to just play a macro game and MKP to play poorly, instead of this shit where it's blatant obvious that there is something weird. Sounds like the fixers wanted to show the game is fixed on purpose.
Because you don't need to bribe two players in order to match-fix, but only one. It costs less money, y'know.
On March 25 2015 22:52 Swoopae wrote: Pinnacle do not keep any money when bets are cancelled. Can we please stop talking about that it's irrelevant all bettors get refunded in full.
Poopi - there is no reason to involve the winning player in match fixing you only need to involve the losing player. The winning player is trying to win regardless of whether the match is legitimate or fixed so why would you need to involve them?
So technically I can void all the bets I want on Pinnacle by just having a couple 10k$ in the bank?
Yeah so it is stupid from match fixers to do it on a game like sc2 because allins happen frequently and in these situations it's hard to lose on purpose.
On March 25 2015 22:52 Swoopae wrote: Pinnacle do not keep any money when bets are cancelled. Can we please stop talking about that it's irrelevant all bettors get refunded in full.
Poopi - there is no reason to involve the winning player in match fixing you only need to involve the losing player. The winning player is trying to win regardless of whether the match is legitimate or fixed so why would you need to involve them?
So technically I can void all the bets I want on Pinnacle by just having a couple 10k$ in the bank?
Afaik you also need multiple accounts on Pinnacle.
On March 25 2015 22:27 ZenithM wrote: Swoopae, how does it work on Pinnacle when they cancel the betting? Do they keep all money or give it back to the betters? If they give it back (I think they keep it from what I picked up reading the thread), it would be easy to kind of DDoS the betting by just placing multiple super suspicious bets until Pinnacle pulls the plug.
Also I suppose there are other eSports bettings sites, what about them? Did they cancel bets and/or make statements?
I must say, having slept on it and read a few more pages of thread, I myself am starting to come out of my delusion and believe MarineKing is guilty. Sad shit...
You get your money back. Well... If you have the money maybe you can do it. But what for? so you get the same money back that you paid to possibly void the bet? What if it doesn't work? I don't really see what you are going for...
I'm obviously going for my dream scenario where a malicious conspiracy is trying to destroy eSportS and MarineKing by making bets until Pinnacle pulls the plug :D. As it wouldn't take any money aside from a buffer of up to 100k splitted among several people, you could just bet like this when an underdog is likely to lose horribly and it looks like match fixing afterwards. Apparently there even has been a case where the betting pattern looked like match fixing but it ended up being the other player who won.
I'm not saying this is the most likely scenario but I can't see how this is unfeasible (and I've myself tried to do more idiotic malicious shit than ruin some competitive video game scene so I can see the appeal). Obviously I still believe that MarineKing match-fixed, so yeah, I'm not even able to convince myself that this must be what happened :D
On March 25 2015 22:27 ZenithM wrote: Swoopae, how does it work on Pinnacle when they cancel the betting? Do they keep all money or give it back to the betters? If they give it back (I think they keep it from what I picked up reading the thread), it would be easy to kind of DDoS the betting by just placing multiple super suspicious bets until Pinnacle pulls the plug.
Also I suppose there are other eSports bettings sites, what about them? Did they cancel bets and/or make statements?
I must say, having slept on it and read a few more pages of thread, I myself am starting to come out of my delusion and believe MarineKing is guilty. Sad shit...
Wouldn't keeping the money be outright theft!? :-S
Well, nothing is theft if you signed the right contract with Pinnacle. I don't know how betting works (and frankly imo it's not really far from theft altogether anyway). If they say in their contract that they reserve the right to cancel all bets and keep the money well you're fucked. It's not like it's obviously different to lose your money to Pinnacle or to lose it to a random better on the other end of the bet. But yeah, it's probably theft for legit companies...:D
That's absolutely not true. You cannot put stuff in a contract that's against the law. If so, you could have contracts where you'd have to give up your first born or something.
Btw, in addition to not using his reapers to scout, it seems like he didn't even intend to scout the gold bases. By about 3:27(game time) I believe he just sent his scv straight back to his base. It looks like it just 'pathfound' its way back, so I assume he never selected that scv again after that point. Yeah if the hatch was in one of the gold bases, he would've seen it, but I just expected to see him issue move commands on both golds then send the scv somewhere else. I understand that he might be afraid to lose his reapers to speedlings(which won't be out for long) but I just don't see the point in not letting that scv roam around the map(or even idle in front of his natural ramp) to know precisely when the bust is happening.
On March 25 2015 21:06 Big J wrote: - the reapers can't hop up and down on Expedition Lost! The only way out is through the main ramp, and then the natural ramp. MK checked for a proxy hatch in the natural which wasn't there, so under the assumption of a frontal attack, just keeping the reapers behind his wall makes sense (no cliff escape).
If you watch MarineKing's recent game with Curious he leaves all his marines in the open and lets them all get surrounded by zerglings without even stimming or even microing his units and loses a huge chunk of his army. He's super behind, and the announcers keep commenting on how tilted he is and he makes a lot of other mistakes like lifting up all of command centers. He somehow comes back to win it despite making bigger mistakes than this game. In the same broadcast I thought Yoda had more glaring mistakes with Shine since he easily had the game, it's definitely not definitive evidence for anything. The betting is definitively the most suspicious part but even the result of those games have contrasting results, I wonder how they can prove something like this.
On March 25 2015 22:52 Swoopae wrote: Pinnacle do not keep any money when bets are cancelled. Can we please stop talking about that it's irrelevant all bettors get refunded in full.
Poopi - there is no reason to involve the winning player in match fixing you only need to involve the losing player. The winning player is trying to win regardless of whether the match is legitimate or fixed so why would you need to involve them?
So technically I can void all the bets I want on Pinnacle by just having a couple 10k$ in the bank?
Afaik you also need multiple accounts on Pinnacle.
My friends and I then. I don't have a clear idea of how many people bet on a game like MK vs ByuL and how many suspicious bets were made at the end. If it something like 10-20 it's certainly easy to pull off, but it would take more organization if we're talking a hundred.
On March 25 2015 13:32 ElMeanYo wrote: Guys, does it really matter if match fixing is rampant? I mean, look at pro-wrestling. Everyone knows its fake but it is still hugely popular with millions of fans.
It's all a show, you just have to use your imagination and pretend it isn't fantasy.
Except people don't bet real money on fake wrestling. Try a better analogy next time
Undertaker losing busted my Wrestlemania accumulator last year and I'm busy trying to work out which of Brock/Reigns is the smart line. Try again.
EPT
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