Just as in the previous thread, simply saying "X player did Y" without significant evidence will not be tolerated. Unless you can provide factual basis for your claims, do not accuse anyone of anything.
Any accusations that Pinnacle isn't legitimate or attempted to scam people, or that Kespa is involved in matchfixing will be moderated SEVERELY.
On January 23 2015 10:34 DookuSc2 wrote: Well, all I know is that if I was San I would either sue Pinnacle, TL, or whoever publicly claimed that "San was payed" or the "Match was fixed" for defamation of character. Easily a proceedable case.
Eh, you're more right than you might know at first glance, because Korea has very strict defamation laws (including criminal), and unlike Western countries, truth is not an absolute defense to defamation. It could even be a crime, although there are very few convictions, something like 2 since 2011 and most people who are accused are in really ugly divorce cases.
But since most of these people are foreigners, it means trying to get them to go to Korea to face justice. Which is just a big pain in the ass and he won't ever get any satisfaction or payout. He's better off just trying to move on.
On January 23 2015 09:37 Wuster wrote: Convenient for the gamblers then that San wasn't going to do some random all-in and instead play that macro game he was near certain to lose then huh?
Cuz that's really what it comes down to, 5:1 odds don't happen outside of no-name foreigner versus champion caliber Korean which speaks to the certainty you'd have to have to still bet on Dark. You'd have to think that San's condition gave him worse odds than that, and even then you had Scarlett 7 gating DRG for a win less than a year ago (yes I know DRG was nowhere near Dark's level).
Edit: If there was some illogical whale around the SC2 scene, why is this the first time in 5 years this sort of thing has happened?
Because he felt like it on that night?
We're not talking one big bet, we're talking a series of bets the algorithm of a 15+ year betting agency picked up on as being extremely suspect. It's not just one guy doing a wild bet.
How do you know it's not just one guy?
The algorithm picks up a large bet amount, nothing too complicated about that.
On January 23 2015 09:58 ZeromuS wrote: Can we stop with the posts accusing San of a matchfix? Seriously. Pinnacle themselves stated that the only reason they voided the bets was due to a problematic betting pattern.
Dont be so childish, the "problematic bettting pattern" points that someone knew the outcome of the match
Without any serious proof to claim San was involved in matchfixing we cannot say he was.
But what can we do is to create a number of theories and assign a certain % of probability to them, based on the facts we know so far. If you are not keen on the matchfixing theory, you can offer some other expanation. Saying that "we dont know, it could be anything" is a cop out.
If you feel THAT strongly about it, contact KeSpa and urge them to conduct an investigation. TL isn't the place to do some sort of vigilante justice style investigation or accusation.
I am pretty sure that it was already been done. And the fact that KeSpa is not doing anything is not exactly helping the case.
Also, keep in mind that there are different ways that match could be fixed, with the different degrees of guilt on parties involved.
1) It could be just some 3rd party offering $ to San directly (no one else was aware or responsible) 2) Fixing was arranged by someone "above" - (coach/team/whole organization is involved, a whole bunch of people responsible)
Leaning towards 2) personally, espessialy given the silence from Korea so far.
You should compare and contrast your post with the mod note. There's a reason for the mod note.
On January 23 2015 09:37 Wuster wrote: Convenient for the gamblers then that San wasn't going to do some random all-in and instead play that macro game he was near certain to lose then huh?
Cuz that's really what it comes down to, 5:1 odds don't happen outside of no-name foreigner versus champion caliber Korean which speaks to the certainty you'd have to have to still bet on Dark. You'd have to think that San's condition gave him worse odds than that, and even then you had Scarlett 7 gating DRG for a win less than a year ago (yes I know DRG was nowhere near Dark's level).
Edit: If there was some illogical whale around the SC2 scene, why is this the first time in 5 years this sort of thing has happened?
Because he felt like it on that night?
We're not talking one big bet, we're talking a series of bets the algorithm of a 15+ year betting agency picked up on as being extremely suspect. It's not just one guy doing a wild bet.
How do you know it's not just one guy?
"One guy doing a wild bet." From what I've read it's at least one guy making a series of suspect bets on the same match.
Also the silence from korea could simply be them hoping to avoid another scandal. The one that rocked BW did so much public perception/sponsorship damage. Appearances are everything here.
On January 23 2015 09:58 ZeromuS wrote: Can we stop with the posts accusing San of a matchfix? Seriously. Pinnacle themselves stated that the only reason they voided the bets was due to a problematic betting pattern.
Dont be so childish, the "problematic bettting pattern" points that someone knew the outcome of the match
Without any serious proof to claim San was involved in matchfixing we cannot say he was.
But what can we do is to create a number of theories and assign a certain % of probability to them, based on the facts we know so far. If you are not keen on the matchfixing theory, you can offer some other expanation. Saying that "we dont know, it could be anything" is a cop out.
If you feel THAT strongly about it, contact KeSpa and urge them to conduct an investigation. TL isn't the place to do some sort of vigilante justice style investigation or accusation.
I am pretty sure that it was already been done. And the fact that KeSpa is not doing anything is not exactly helping the case.
Also, keep in mind that there are different ways that match could be fixed, with the different degrees of guilt on parties involved.
1) It could be just some 3rd party offering $ to San directly (no one else was aware or responsible) 2) Fixing was arranged by someone "above" - (coach/team/whole organization is involved, a whole bunch of people responsible)
Leaning towards 2) personally, espessialy given the silence from Korea so far.
You should compare and contrast your post with the mod note. There's a reason for the mod note.
Not much info from Pinnacle as expected. The percentages are interesting, but without much more data its hard to tell how much of a statistical outlier this is.
Hmmmm, well I wish they were more specific about actions they are taking outside their own site. Also it is weird that when asked to divulge why they stopped the bets they didn't just reveal the jump in % win odds over 4 days. That to me already reads as a big, and significant, change given that there was no new information about either player coming out.
On January 23 2015 04:22 aidoSC wrote: I have no words. I thought this is a solid bookmaker Pinnacle. but it's a shame. Pinnacle robbed players.
Are you serious here? So they shouldnt void a match when its obviously far from being legit? Is that what you are saying?
"Customers, we suspect that a match was fixed, if you did bet on San we are kinda sorry, but be more carefull next time, your money is gone." The only one who could be mad here is someone who followed the criminal money, expecting easy profits.
1) Pinnacle at no public evidence (may be no evidence) 2) San said - there was no fixing 3) KeSPA not canceled the results 4) Pinnacle was aware of the "problem" but accepts bets
output
1) Pinnacle unscrupulous bookie 2) Pinnacle wants to pay the winning players
I'm sorry defrauded players and San.but Pinnacle is registered in an offshore zone...
Thanks to TL for following up; i'm glad Pinnacle agreed to cooperate with Kespa in the interview
As some people are still mentioning me personally, let me clarify that I rescinded my initial statement that San definitely threw the match (made hastily on twitter which I have apologised for, I should have stated it is a possibility as something suspicious clearly happened in this match, and the betting WAS manipulated in Pinnacle's fraud team's opinion as confirmed by Pinnacle here, but San can't be judged as definitely having involvement based on that).
The statement would have been made by Pinnacle regardless of anything I did/said, and we would be in this exact same situation. Their risk/fraud team spotted the market manipulation and I just happened to spot it in real time as well as an esports bettor and talk about it publicly because I had recommended to people who follow my picks to bet on San before there was suspicious movement and didn't want people to continue betting on San when I thought there was something shady and unprecedented going on with the line movement that made me suspicious that the match may not be on the level (a conclusion Pinnacle's experts reached as well).
I remain almost certain something shady happened here but I have less information than Pinnacle and nothing to add to the conversation beyond speculation.
On another note I never insinuated that Dark had anything to do with anything and find it odd TL would even mention that possibility in their question, there is absolutely no reason to suspect him of any wrongdoing. You don't need to have the winner of a match involved in fixing if it occurred, because people are trying to win by default and everything Dark did in the game was totally normal. There is a reason to suspect but not convict San or somebody close to him of some sort of wrongdoing, but it's not up to me to investigate. Certainly I can't draw a definitive conclusion, but it should be investigated by Kespa and not to do so would be willful negligence, especially since Pinnacle have agreed to cooperate with a Kespa investigation. At the very least they should find out what specifically Pinnacle found suspicious so that they can keep an eye out for it in the future as they are the body tasked with keeping Esports clean as they run the biggest SC2 league in Korea. Hopefully San will be cleared of wrongdoing we can't say he is guilty based on speculation, but the suspicion is valid and will not go away without a proper investigation by Kespa, even if they don't make the results public beyond 'we are satisfied San did not participate in any match fixing'. If they can reach that conclusion after an investigation, then yes, it is fair to assume San was not involved as he is entitled to the presumption of innocence until proven guilty, but it is also fine to suspect that somebody did something when there is circumstantial evidence pointing to that conclusion and a comprehensive investigation has not happened. Once the investigation happens if it does, we can draw more accurate conclusions even if the results are not made public in detail.
Something did happen here and i'm glad Pinnacle spoke up about it even if this interview doesn't really give us much in the way of new information other than confirming that Pinnacle believes it is unlikely that the match was played on a fair basis and that they will cooperate with Kespa in any investigation.
One thing Pinnacle should do is make the accounts who bet on this match known to Kespa, so that the information can be analysed in any investigation in case anyone linked to the esports scene in Korea is involved in making suspicious bets. Obviously Pinnacle should also ban these accounts from wagering on their account to be safe; although IF a match fixing syndicate does exist, they will always find a way to get bets on.
To anyone describing Pinnacle as an unscrupulous bookie; this is the sportsbook that went out of their way to pay out both sides on a bet on Al Iaquinta vs Mitch Clarke (an MMA fight in which the wrong finish time was announced for the over/under, under was announced as losing on the night, then about a week later the official finish time was amended so they paid out the bets that were graded as losers on the night on the under as well as the over which was graded as a win on the night) without taking the funds back from the winners graded on the night. The amount wagered on this game would be substantially less than 1% of pinnacle's wagers that day, and probably substantially less than 0.1%. They have no financial incentive to void the bets other than protecting their customers.
I don't have anything else to contribute at this stage other than i'm glad Pinnacle agreed to do an interview with TL, and I hope they are contacted by Kespa who at the very least should make themselves aware of what suspicious petting looks like in the future.
I don't know exactly what happened, I just know that something unscrupulous happened a mathematically ridiculous % of the time and that kespa should look into it because if they dont this sort of thing might happen again and that would be messed up.
And offtopic but hey, Kespa, while we're looking at stuff to do with Startale-Yoe and SKTT1... can we release Parting from Kespa-jail already? There is no reason he shouldn't be able to play in proleague.
On January 23 2015 04:22 aidoSC wrote: I have no words. I thought this is a solid bookmaker Pinnacle. but it's a shame. Pinnacle robbed players.
Are you serious here? So they shouldnt void a match when its obviously far from being legit? Is that what you are saying?
"Customers, we suspect that a match was fixed, if you did bet on San we are kinda sorry, but be more carefull next time, your money is gone." The only one who could be mad here is someone who followed the criminal money, expecting easy profits.
1) Pinnacle at no public evidence (may be no evidence) 2) San said - there was no fixing 3) KeSPA not canceled the results 4) Pinnacle was aware of the "problem" but accepts bets
output
1) Pinnacle unscrupulous bookie 2) Pinnacle wants to pay the winning players
I'm sorry defrauded players and San.but Pinnacle is registered in an offshore zone...
Ya, Pinnacle is the bad guy. That's why they issued a press release and then took the time to answer TL's questions.
Kespa's done nothing, and has a history of matchfixing, but they're the good guys we trust.
On January 23 2015 04:22 aidoSC wrote: I have no words. I thought this is a solid bookmaker Pinnacle. but it's a shame. Pinnacle robbed players.
Are you serious here? So they shouldnt void a match when its obviously far from being legit? Is that what you are saying?
"Customers, we suspect that a match was fixed, if you did bet on San we are kinda sorry, but be more carefull next time, your money is gone." The only one who could be mad here is someone who followed the criminal money, expecting easy profits.
1) Pinnacle at no public evidence (may be no evidence) 2) San said - there was no fixing 3) KeSPA not canceled the results 4) Pinnacle was aware of the "problem" but accepts bets
output
1) Pinnacle unscrupulous bookie 2) Pinnacle wants to pay the winning players
I'm sorry defrauded players and San.but Pinnacle is registered in an offshore zone...
bizarre betting lines are pretty much evidence for something being amiss. For betting sites a site stands to lose a lot more if they don't void these type of betting patterns. Gamblers expect to to have an even playing field. I'm pretty sure pretty much everyone who gambles will tell you they don't feel defrauded if something like this happens
On January 23 2015 04:22 aidoSC wrote: I have no words. I thought this is a solid bookmaker Pinnacle. but it's a shame. Pinnacle robbed players.
Are you serious here? So they shouldnt void a match when its obviously far from being legit? Is that what you are saying?
"Customers, we suspect that a match was fixed, if you did bet on San we are kinda sorry, but be more carefull next time, your money is gone." The only one who could be mad here is someone who followed the criminal money, expecting easy profits.
1) Pinnacle at no public evidence (may be no evidence) 2) San said - there was no fixing 3) KeSPA not canceled the results 4) Pinnacle was aware of the "problem" but accepts bets
output
1) Pinnacle unscrupulous bookie 2) Pinnacle wants to pay the winning players
I'm sorry defrauded players and San.but Pinnacle is registered in an offshore zone...
Kespa's done nothing, and has a history of matchfixing, but they're the good guys we trust.
Pinnacle obviously did the right thing, but constantly repeating that "Kespa is doing nothing" is foolish. We don't know if they are investigating or not. We'll try to find out, but to suggest some large scale fixing because they haven't made an announcement is crazy.
Any accusations from this point forward that Pinnacle isn't legitimate or attempted to scam people, or that Kespa is involved in matchfixing will be moderated SEVERELY.
On January 23 2015 09:58 ZeromuS wrote: Can we stop with the posts accusing San of a matchfix? Seriously. Pinnacle themselves stated that the only reason they voided the bets was due to a problematic betting pattern.
Without any serious proof to claim San was involved in matchfixing we cannot say he was.
If you feel THAT strongly about it, contact KeSpa and urge them to conduct an investigation. TL isn't the place to do some sort of vigilante justice style investigation or accusation.
It's very hard to speculate on what makes things fishy without indirectly implicating San, but you are right that is premature and unfounded. Apologies if I went overboard arguing against this all being some big misunderstanding.
I just find the amount of hand-waving in this thread astounding. People act like there's no way something like this could happen in Starcraft 2 or under KeSPA's watch.
But just looking at the history of Korean esports you already have: Brood War match fixing scandal Warcraft 3 map editing scandal
So it's not like big cheating cases are unheard of in Korean esports.
Even in SC2 you have: Thrown game on stream (ESV Weekly) WCS EU players banned for negotiating match fixing Map hacking during a WoL show match (for money) KeSPA players offered money to throw games Dreamhack qualifier game replayed due to one player being told what the other player was doing A Korean pro admitting to stream cheating during an online tournament
None of these incidents are in dispute either, I left out anything that wasn't actually proven / admitted to.
I know this doesn't mean anything regarding San-Dark but it feels like people keep wanting to bury the ugly incidents and deny that anything could possibly happen. But this is the first time a major 3rd party organization is implying that something ugly could be going on and maybe it's time to pay attention.
On January 23 2015 04:22 aidoSC wrote: I have no words. I thought this is a solid bookmaker Pinnacle. but it's a shame. Pinnacle robbed players.
Are you serious here? So they shouldnt void a match when its obviously far from being legit? Is that what you are saying?
"Customers, we suspect that a match was fixed, if you did bet on San we are kinda sorry, but be more carefull next time, your money is gone." The only one who could be mad here is someone who followed the criminal money, expecting easy profits.
1) Pinnacle at no public evidence (may be no evidence) 2) San said - there was no fixing 3) KeSPA not canceled the results 4) Pinnacle was aware of the "problem" but accepts bets
output
1) Pinnacle unscrupulous bookie 2) Pinnacle wants to pay the winning players
I'm sorry defrauded players and San.but Pinnacle is registered in an offshore zone...
Actually Pinnacle suspended all betting on San - Dark once enough red flags piled up. Then they voided all bets after an investigation.
BTW, you know how bookies make money? By taking a cut from all bets. The losing bets pay the winning bets, so it really doesn't matter who wins or loses each game.
I know this doesn't mean anything regarding San-Dark but it feels like people keep wanting to bury the ugly incidents and deny that anything could possibly happen. But this is the first time a major 3rd party organization is implying that something ugly could be going on and maybe it's time to pay attention.
Nobody wants to bury anything, and you can rest assured that people are paying very keen attention to this thing as it develops. Some of us are simply very aware of the negative repercussions that a scandal could have on a player's career regardless of their actual involvement, and we would rather the speculating was left to the professionals. I think the only thing we have the power to do in this situation is turn foreign public sentiment for or against a player... although with Koreans being booted out of Europe, that might not mean much. If Korean sentiment (which we have zero access to or control over) turns sour, there's not going to be any "MMA flees to Europe" type saving moves.
1) you need to understand that Pinnacle interested party - their speculation about fixed matches can not be objectively 2) bookie can not guarantee your income in each match 3) match-fixing serious crime. decision on fixed matches should take sports associations and the police, not the bookmaker 4) bookie himself decides on a fixed match - it is an unreliable bookie
oh please fill in the first post on there that you can not berate Pinnacle and I did not notice
mass discussion at 2p2 over innovation vs super game 1 today
I had bet Innovation ML at -177 opener to win 100usd equiv and returned home to an all bets have been cancelled on the match due to fraudulent activity.
Apparently Super got bet into being a huge favourite in Map 1, Pinnacle suspended lines, then innovation came back and won the series. This time it was my winning bet that got cancelled, and again I don't care about the money but I want to know WTF is going on here. I didn't see it myself but people were saying Super got bet into being a huge favourite over Innovation in map 1?
I caught the opener and it moved the line to -203 which I thought was huge, but figured i'd been flagged as sharp and it moved the line more than usual
Inno was a substantial fav in game 1 at the time I bet, but apparently Super became a huge fav in game 1 specifically and I didnt watch live so I have no idea what happened. Emailed pinnacle I hope they make a statement
I have no comment on this other than what the hell is going on... it could mean anything but how nothing makes sense
I'm really hoping Innovation isn't the next Savior. Really strange that the betters would make it so obvious by betting on one game in a series like that.
Even if the players involved weren't really involved in match-fixing, it's going to be a hell of a time for them back in their respective team houses / talking to their friends or family who know about this. Feel really sorry for them if they're not really guilty, but if they are then I'd be very disappointed. Innovation, especially, has been the closest to the most inspirational progamer in my eyes.
EPT
