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Just as in the previous thread, simply saying "X player did Y" without significant evidence will not be tolerated. Unless you can provide factual basis for your claims, do not accuse anyone of anything.
Any accusations that Pinnacle isn't legitimate or attempted to scam people, or that Kespa is involved in matchfixing will be moderated SEVERELY. |
I was recently making an illustration for one of my friends showing how the law of large numbers works. I will change it a bit for the current situation.
Imagine you have 2 players of exactly the same skill, all other factors that can influence people betting on them are also the same and they don't change while betting is in progress.
Q:Out of 10 betters, what is the probability that at least 6 (6-10) of them will bet on the same player?
A: 37,7% probability for a specific player, and twice that much (75,4%) for any of them.
Q:Out of 100 betters, what is the probability that at least 60 of them will bet on the same player?
A: 2,8% probability for a specific player, and twice that much (5,7%) for any of them.
Q:Out of 1000 betters, what is the probability that at least 600 of them will bet on the same player?
A: 2,72/10^10 for any of them. That is less than one in 1 000 000 000.
In other words, the probability that out of 1000 betters each player will receive from 401 to 599 bets is more than 999 999 999 out of 1 000 000 000.
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I am not sure that's very helpful with respect to betting markets though as it's less about the number of people than the amount of money on a side. It's not rare for a book to have a winning position be the side with 75% of tickets on it, because the 25% on the other side is a hugely deep pocketed (and typically wiser) minority.
I would suspect that in this game for example, Dark would have easily gathered the overwhelming majority of the tickets as he's been getting a lot of hype from both Tastosis during games and the community at large (arguably deserved since he has been playing well). And if that ended up being a substantially more amount of money - even odds-adjusted, then there would be probabilistic value by betting on San - which the professional, smarter bettors might bite on. What probably happened was some version of that. However, what also likely happened is that a small group (or a even single but suspicious) bettor just poured money into Dark no matter how low the odds became. Meanwhile, there were probably very smart guys who were taking the value on San as the odds got longer and longer (too long) for him. It was those honest bettors who Pinnacle is trying to protect by refunding bets when they have good reason to suspect an irregularity.
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Just regarding all those people who say Pinnacle is a large reputable business. I would like to say. Enron was also a large reputable business until they weren't.
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Eerrm, are there any news to this case?
It feels like nobody talks about that anymore.
But, if there are some results from the investigation, i guess, SC2 Fans would like to hear...
And - more of that - i think, betters want to see some real news as well.
Im my opinion it's just not fair to void the bets, (directly or indirectly) accuse a player and/or organisation of cheating and never reveal some results.
Very strange story...
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On January 31 2015 23:13 Mosha wrote:
Eerrm, are there any news to this case?
It feels like nobody talks about that anymore.
But, if there are some results from the investigation, i guess, SC2 Fans would like to hear...
And - more of that - i think, betters want to see some real news as well.
Im my opinion it's just not fair to void the bets, (directly or indirectly) accuse a player and/or organisation of cheating and never reveal some results.
Very strange story...
investigations?
There is only one organistation who can do that and that's kespa. Not sure if they are doing something. I am not even sure if they would make it public if they found something.
Its not fair to void bets?
The odds were clearly very far of. Numbers don't lie. There was going on something. As an experienced better i can tell you i have never seen odds like that in a match where the players were fairly equal matched. It's not like San is a low GM NA player or something but the odds suggested that.
Btw Pinnacle doesn't accuse anyone they are just stating the facts. They are also acting within their own rules. I would have been very disappointed if they didn't react to this just to avoid some bad press.
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I think, there was a little bit of a misunderstanding.
Of course it's not unfair to void the bets, given the circumstances.
But, according to this link: http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/notice/esports-statement?ito=twitter they indeed accused someone to have fixed that match.
In accordance with this policy, the match between Dark and San {20th January 2015 } has been identified by our fraud prevention team as being manipulated. The bet placement pattern clearly indicates that the match was not played on a fair basis.
They speak of the MATCH being manipulated, not just the betting pattern being weird. (which could for example happen, if someone spreads inside information)
So, yes, i do expect something like
"In order to solve the issues concerning this incident, Kespa has come to investigate further on it. Of course we do our best to keep our customers informed"
It was not Kespa cancelling or voiding a match, it was Pinnacle voiding the bets, so its their turn to inform people about whats going on, even if the investigation is not theirs to do.
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Yes "they speak of the MATCH being manipulated" and then follow the reason how they came to that conclusion. That's an implication but i guess you can see it as an accusation as well. If the implication is correct there has to be someone who manipulated it after all.
I think everybody would like to know the whole story behind it.
But I don't think it's Pinnacles job from here to investigate or inform us.
"Pinnacle Sports reserves the right to refuse, restrict, cancel or limit any bet perceived to be placed in a fraudulent manner in order to circumvent our bet limits, rules and/or system regulations. "
They detected it and canceled the wagers. End of story for them.
If Kespa investigates the issue they might or might not make a statement about it. I hope they do both.
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EPT
