Matchfixing is a very serious offence and accusations of matchfixing should not be made lightly. Please avoid making accusations against specific individuals unless you have substantial proof, or until further information is released. (0620 KST)
On January 21 2015 04:39 Clubfan wrote: Personally, I think that it's a false positive. And concerning the guy "having evidence", we don't know how credible he is.
No one is claiming that there is evidence for throw.
There is just evidence that placed bets were uncommon but as far as we know some rich drunk guy maybe decided to open e-sports tab on pinnacle and just go yolo on Dark because he has cool nick.
On January 21 2015 04:41 BlackCompany wrote: The point is: i am pretty sure they found something they thought is fishy and decided to play it safe by canceling the bets BUT that doesnt mean there really was match fixing. Could be one of those one in a million coicidences where something just went wrong. This doesnt proove San is match fixing.
True, just saying to people that Pinnacle would never do this just to avoid paying money. Something triggered their alarm which isn't that easy to do.
When someone yolobets a bunch of money on Dark, he wouldnt do it in small fractions, over the course of one day with a large number of newly created accounts while on all other days the bets set on this match evenend the quoata out.
People who are in esports, but not into betting, shouldnt talk like "they must be false, they now nothing about esports" when they now nothing about betting. Because this is not about esports, this is about betting and matchfixing, something that happens in all sports.
And when the brood war matchfixing scandal came out, people in esports were also shouting out "cant be", "not this player", "what do they know". Betting systems just dont get a warning from one or two dudes who think "dark, cool name, 10k on you".
Wow this smells fishy. Could it be some random, rich idiot just betting for fun, etc? Yes, but the chances are slim, specially if Pinnacle decided to act on it.
San was def a fav of mine back then when he was considered an underdog/too old, etc. so I hope the best for him.
On January 21 2015 03:01 Daswollvieh wrote: So everybody bets on Dark, even though the players´ chances of success are not that far from each other and that leads them to believe it was a set up.
People bet on Starcraft matches, wtf, seriously...
It's more that Dark odds were pretty out of line to how much better than San he was (see San's recent 2-0 of Dark).
On January 21 2015 03:01 terrancake wrote: Lets be fair, they aren't really claiming they cheated. Just voided all bets because of suspicion.
It happens quite often in the betting community when it comes to low leagues or obscure sports. Try betting on football for division 5 games or low division youth teams and you'll see what I mean
It is automatically detected and it takes into consideration amount of bets, size of bets and the time of the bets. If an unusual amount of bets happens or very high bets happens that are way out of the ordinary they just void every bet.
The players/teams aren't always directly involved, it could be information that leaked. Let's say a goalkeeper has some hand pain and has to play on painkillers. The goalie then proclaims unofficially to one of his friends that he can't feel anything and the ball feels like a wet soap. Some people find out about it and starts betting high amounts on that game. This triggers the warning system because multiple high bets in a short interval was placed on a match that should not have lots of these types of bets.
There was a documentary on it not so long ago in Swedish television. Sweden has had some problems with alleged match-fixing in the Swedish football leagues.
This is very possible, San's on a foreign team right now, who's he going to practice with? Probably people outside his team, could one of them leaked replays or what not. While the line ended up so insane that having inside knowledge might not be enough justify the risk, maybe the same people with the inside scoop made the initial early bets when the odds were decent, then the rumor started that the match was fixed?
Cuz I gotta assume these type of guys are savvy enough to *not* move the line that much to get noticed. Of course, I starting to feel like I'm writing fan fiction coming up with that scenario too lol.
Counter-counterpoint: The players were cleared in that case (not rock-solid proof of innocent I know), is it possible that gamblers were seeing how much they could get away with before the game was flagged, intel for later match fixing? Cuz how can you not assume you're going to get caught if you bet that obviously.
On January 21 2015 02:51 Gwavajuice wrote: Could this be a way for a betting website to not pay the winners if the outcome is very defavorable to the bet site?
San was not outplayed in a really shocking way, was he?
The only debatable moment was when San blinked all of his stalkers into a roach hydra army of comparable size, losing most of his army. Protoss players get overconfident and do that all the time, though, and it wasn't the worst "throw" out there.
There was more than just that. He didn't mineral walk his scout probe and lost it to 2 zerglings, he lost his mothership core to one queen at dark's nat, and I'm only halfway through
He made lots of bad mistakes like this vs Life in blizzcon. Lost his MSC to queen easily, lost probe placing pylons etc. I mean it's not like he's a guy who hasn't made horrible mistakes before. His reputation for like the first 2 years of his career was based off that.
The return of SadZenith!
On January 21 2015 03:56 dsousa wrote: Why would you fix a match to go the way that it was overwhelming favored to go? Why do all that risk for only a 20% gain, when you can do the same risk and bet on an underdog and get 500% gain. (at 5-1)
The premise that San fixed a match where he was a huge underdog doesn't make sense from the people who fixed the match perspective.
The heavy favorite won.
Only why was Dark such a huge favorite? 5-1 seems like insane odds for any proleague match.
Maybe the betting volume was incredibly low and there were no betters for San?
The line was 5-1 because so many people bet on Dark. It didn't start remotely that lopsided, which is why it's so fishy.
On January 21 2015 04:45 xuanzue wrote: yeah, too big to fall, too big to make that shit. You are the naive if you think that being "too big" makes any organization "untainted" and that never ever will act like that.
God dammit, you don't get it do you? Pinnacle is not happy with this. Do you really thing that it goes into their favor to put this kind of announcement: "hey customers, there's match fixing going on our site, why don't you bet with us?"
They would rather pay money than admit something like this is going on because it destroys customer confidence on a market that's growing rapidly. If they are putting this kind of announcement then it means something is really really fishy.
It may be false positive, it may be all ok, but there is no way that pinnacle is staging this just to avoid paying money, that just wouldn't make sense.
On January 21 2015 04:39 Clubfan wrote: Personally, I think that it's a false positive. And concerning the guy "having evidence", we don't know how credible he is.
No one is claiming that there is evidence for throw.
There is just evidence that placed bets were uncommon but as far as we know some rich drunk guy maybe decided to open e-sports tab on pinnacle and just go yolo on Dark because he has cool nick.
On January 21 2015 04:41 BlackCompany wrote: The point is: i am pretty sure they found something they thought is fishy and decided to play it safe by canceling the bets BUT that doesnt mean there really was match fixing. Could be one of those one in a million coicidences where something just went wrong. This doesnt proove San is match fixing.
True, just saying to people that Pinnacle would never do this just to avoid paying money. Something triggered their alarm which isn't that easy to do.
When someone yolobets a bunch of money on Dark, he wouldnt do it in small fractions, over the course of one day with a large number of newly created accounts while on all other days the bets set on this match evenend the quoata out.
People who are in esports, but not into betting, shouldnt talk like "they must be false, they now nothing about esports" when they now nothing about betting. Because this is not about esports, this is about betting and matchfixing, something that happens in all sports.
But if doing it in small fractions over the course of the day still triggers the alarm and get the bets voided, why do it like that?
On January 21 2015 04:45 xuanzue wrote: yeah, too big to fall, too big to make that shit. You are the naive if you think that being "too big" makes any organization "untainted" and that never ever will act like that.
God dammit, you don't get it do you? Pinnacle is not happy with this. Do you really thing that it goes into their favor to put this kind of announcement: "hey customers, there's match fixing going on our site, why don't you bet with us?"
They would rather pay money than admit something like this is going on because it destroys customer confidence on a market that's growing rapidly. If they are putting this kind of announcement then it means something is really really fishy.
It may be false positive, it may be all ok, but there is no way that pinnacle is staging this just to avoid paying money, that just wouldn't make sense.
Yes because your forgetting the first rule of public relations, there is not such thing as bad publicity
On January 21 2015 04:45 xuanzue wrote: yeah, too big to fall, too big to make that shit. You are the naive if you think that being "too big" makes any organization "untainted" and that never ever will act like that.
God dammit, you don't get it do you? Pinnacle is not happy with this. Do you really thing that it goes into their favor to put this kind of announcement: "hey customers, there's match fixing going on our site, why don't you bet with us?"
They would rather pay money than admit something like this is going on because it destroys customer confidence on a market that's growing rapidly. If they are putting this kind of announcement then it means something is really really fishy.
It may be false positive, it may be all ok, but there is no way that pinnacle is staging this just to avoid paying money, that just wouldn't make sense.
Yes because your forgetting the first rule of public relations, there is not such thing as bad publicity
That rule is not absolute. Yes, it is true to a degree and certain point. But it has limitations, and is not absolute.
On January 21 2015 04:39 Clubfan wrote: Personally, I think that it's a false positive. And concerning the guy "having evidence", we don't know how credible he is.
No one is claiming that there is evidence for throw.
There is just evidence that placed bets were uncommon but as far as we know some rich drunk guy maybe decided to open e-sports tab on pinnacle and just go yolo on Dark because he has cool nick.
On January 21 2015 04:41 BlackCompany wrote: The point is: i am pretty sure they found something they thought is fishy and decided to play it safe by canceling the bets BUT that doesnt mean there really was match fixing. Could be one of those one in a million coicidences where something just went wrong. This doesnt proove San is match fixing.
True, just saying to people that Pinnacle would never do this just to avoid paying money. Something triggered their alarm which isn't that easy to do.
When someone yolobets a bunch of money on Dark, he wouldnt do it in small fractions, over the course of one day with a large number of newly created accounts while on all other days the bets set on this match evenend the quoata out.
People who are in esports, but not into betting, shouldnt talk like "they must be false, they now nothing about esports" when they now nothing about betting. Because this is not about esports, this is about betting and matchfixing, something that happens in all sports.
But if doing it in small fractions over the course of the day still triggers the alarm and get the bets voided, why do it like that?
THIS!Can anyone explain me why would you do that if it's so easy to detect?
On January 21 2015 04:45 xuanzue wrote: yeah, too big to fall, too big to make that shit. You are the naive if you think that being "too big" makes any organization "untainted" and that never ever will act like that.
God dammit, you don't get it do you? Pinnacle is not happy with this. Do you really thing that it goes into their favor to put this kind of announcement: "hey customers, there's match fixing going on our site, why don't you bet with us?"
They would rather pay money than admit something like this is going on because it destroys customer confidence on a market that's growing rapidly. If they are putting this kind of announcement then it means something is really really fishy.
It may be false positive, it may be all ok, but there is no way that pinnacle is staging this just to avoid paying money, that just wouldn't make sense.
So you believe that pinnacle is 100% correct. And that there is matchfixing when pinnacle's only statement is that there was an odd betting pattern?
"The bet placement pattern clearly indicates that the match was not played on a fair basis"
The bet placement.
No mention of external news to trigger this other than bet placement as the reason for voiding the match.
I think you shouldn't be making the grand claim of match fixing without there being additional proof of the fact. In other scenes lately any match fixing accusations are backed up by at least some modicum of proof other than bet placement and betting lines that occurred once and the numbers of which were not public ...
I think its easier to claim that someone knew San isn't in top shape and that information might have influenced bets moreso than the claim that San was matchfixing. San just tweeted something to the effect of wrist and shoulder pain as well as bad practice and playing poorly :/
On January 21 2015 04:39 Clubfan wrote: Personally, I think that it's a false positive. And concerning the guy "having evidence", we don't know how credible he is.
No one is claiming that there is evidence for throw.
There is just evidence that placed bets were uncommon but as far as we know some rich drunk guy maybe decided to open e-sports tab on pinnacle and just go yolo on Dark because he has cool nick.
On January 21 2015 04:41 BlackCompany wrote: The point is: i am pretty sure they found something they thought is fishy and decided to play it safe by canceling the bets BUT that doesnt mean there really was match fixing. Could be one of those one in a million coicidences where something just went wrong. This doesnt proove San is match fixing.
True, just saying to people that Pinnacle would never do this just to avoid paying money. Something triggered their alarm which isn't that easy to do.
When someone yolobets a bunch of money on Dark, he wouldnt do it in small fractions, over the course of one day with a large number of newly created accounts while on all other days the bets set on this match evenend the quoata out.
People who are in esports, but not into betting, shouldnt talk like "they must be false, they now nothing about esports" when they now nothing about betting. Because this is not about esports, this is about betting and matchfixing, something that happens in all sports.
But if doing it in small fractions over the course of the day still triggers the alarm and get the bets voided, why do it like that?
I don't think anyone knows exactly how the fraud detection works. Which is more fishy? Big yolobet or suddenly a bunch of people caring about starcraft betting? I don't know, I could make a case for either. But I doubt the algorithm is that cut and dry anyways.
On January 21 2015 04:45 xuanzue wrote: yeah, too big to fall, too big to make that shit. You are the naive if you think that being "too big" makes any organization "untainted" and that never ever will act like that.
God dammit, you don't get it do you? Pinnacle is not happy with this. Do you really thing that it goes into their favor to put this kind of announcement: "hey customers, there's match fixing going on our site, why don't you bet with us?"
They would rather pay money than admit something like this is going on because it destroys customer confidence on a market that's growing rapidly. If they are putting this kind of announcement then it means something is really really fishy.
It may be false positive, it may be all ok, but there is no way that pinnacle is staging this just to avoid paying money, that just wouldn't make sense.
Yes because your forgetting the first rule of public relations, there is not such thing as bad publicity
only some celeb news watcher would say this. A betting site needs the trust of its costoumers. Manipulated betting destroys it. Or does General Motors think "oh yeah, we had to get Millions of Cars back because we did shit, that will boost our sells."
Yet another instance of sensationalism in todays world of twitter, etc. The day I believe an aspiring sportsbetter is the day I make GM, it ain't gonna fucking happen.
It just sucks that by default San is going to be looked at as a match fixer even if it is proven that he didn't because he was the one that lost the match. And this 11 pages are not helping the situation cause the majority of you on here are already claiming to the gods that San for sure match fixed instead of waiting for their to be more information to come out about the situation and you guys are the toxic in this community. Something like this can lose sponsors and lose a player a team but for the sake of keeping a conversation going you guys are watching the video of the match and exclaiming that 100% without a doubt San threw the game....I dont care if I get warned or banned or whatever for what I say next but honestly...you guys that are 100% exclaiming he cheat....Kill Your Self
On January 21 2015 04:45 xuanzue wrote: yeah, too big to fall, too big to make that shit. You are the naive if you think that being "too big" makes any organization "untainted" and that never ever will act like that.
God dammit, you don't get it do you? Pinnacle is not happy with this. Do you really thing that it goes into their favor to put this kind of announcement: "hey customers, there's match fixing going on our site, why don't you bet with us?"
They would rather pay money than admit something like this is going on because it destroys customer confidence on a market that's growing rapidly. If they are putting this kind of announcement then it means something is really really fishy.
It may be false positive, it may be all ok, but there is no way that pinnacle is staging this just to avoid paying money, that just wouldn't make sense.
Yes because your forgetting the first rule of public relations, there is not such thing as bad publicity
only some celeb news watcher would say this. A betting site needs the trust of its costoumers. Manipulated betting destroys it. Or does General Motors think "oh yeah, we had to get Millions of Cars back because we did shit, that will boost our sells."
You honestly think gamblers trust their bookies? Manipulating betting is what the industry is built on.
EPT
