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On December 09 2013 08:29 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2013 08:23 McRatyn wrote:On December 09 2013 06:53 RyF wrote:
Well those tournaments including the few best KR terrans are one thing. So the game seems pretty balanced at the high end Level of Play.
But what about this?
Protoss GMs by Region:
America ~ 98
Europe ~ 92
Korea ~ 82
Just random numbers? I don't think so. I think it's wrong to just look at those numbers and claim that the game is finally balanced.
In a game that is played as a major e-sport only the high end games matter, and nothing else. Yeah, the number of ladder heroes that can make into GM In each region doesn't really matter for balance. Its first come, first served as well. People keep citing that data, but its just the thing they use when the win/loss ratios don't favor their argument.
And of course when that isn't convincing enough it turns into "game needs diversity!" or "its balanced but the design is horrible!"
On December 09 2013 17:19 vthree wrote:
I think we have to look at why that is. We can't just assume the better foreigners just play Protoss.
In the same way we CAN assume that "Terran are just better" when they win, right? Because clearly there has to be an imbalance somewhere?
Anyway I find it funny that everyone is wringing their hands and stamping their feet over Terran winrates when they've shifted in Terran's favour in PvT by about half a percent and have shifted in Zerg's favour in ZvT by only 2.5%.
Everyone ignoring the fact that PvZ has, by far, shifted the most with an almost 4% change in favour of Protoss.
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I meant in matches that op includes. Still, just wow :O luci is playing so bad :/
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For now 52-48% is totally fine.
Though if the gap widens, or the number of competitive terran players decrease, or worse : both, there would be a problem.
This is a parameter which is not often (never?) taken into account in balance analysis.
When a race gets worse, the number of "competitive" players of this race decrease (in other words the worse Terran players stop to get invited, and they are less terrans at tournaments), and therefore the win-ratio doesn't necessarily decrease for that race.
Symetrically, when a race gets better, a lot of "frauds", patch-X whatever, get suddenly invited to prestigious tournaments and contribute to decrease the win ratio of their race.
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Its so ridicoulus, to only take the win rates of pro level of play. There is a problem on the casual level of play, where terran is much weaker after the patch. But u guys only close your eyes. Also if we only see the upper tier terrans which are successful these days. I mean look at lucifron ... i really think he will retire soon, or change race ^^
i m really frustrated with the recent state of the game ... i play random these days, and its fun. However i don't know if its my bias of the terran race, but i m quiet decent with zerg and toss after only 25 games (gold level) i know its bad ^^ but i play high platin with terran, so there is not a big diffrence and i think i can reach top gold soon, if i play more games ...  i mean now there are at least 9 matchups i have to learn (minus 3 i already know a bit ^^) however. it feels a lot easier to play with protoss or zerg ... but this is my opinion
If we consider the GM or Master or Diamand distribution we see that there are so few terrans and this is still a sign that something is wrong ... i mean over all there is 33% of each race, but if we check all leagues, we see in bronze there are the most terrans, in all leagues above terran is underrepresented ...
if i check all my terrans in my league, then i see they struggeling hard with protoss, maybe on pro level the terrans can reach 50%, but not on lower level of play!
Im really pissed of this game, why nerfing things ... balancing must be more decent and inteligent, why they don't higher the skill cap which is required for the other races ... nerfing Terran and buffing Toss or Zerg ends up in this scenario we see ... protoss can abuse so OP all ins/cheese, and zerg is the race which is more or less always on average (only at the end of WoL they were OP ^^) however. i really hope blizzard will do something, otherwise a lot of terran players quit or switch races ...
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On December 09 2013 19:30 TheBloodyDwarf wrote:I meant in matches that op includes. Still, just wow :O luci is playing so bad :/
yeah he lost his skills ... from one day to another ^^
now he losts to noname protoss/zerg players (patchToss, patchZerg)
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Pandemona
Charlie Sheens House51489 Posts
TvZ went down after the patch....huh why what xD
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On December 09 2013 18:36 USvBleakill wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2013 18:06 mihajovics wrote:
guys, guys...
please understand that these numbers mean (almost) ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!!!
the sample size is just too small.
like the guy above said, just losing ONE series 2-0 changes the winrates by 1% !!!
it's fun to know these numbers but we can absolutely not determine anything balance wise (except that there isn't an enormous imbalance, like 60%, which would be highly unlikely, but my guess is that even with a real 55-45 distribution people would be raging) I think too that we shouldn't look too much at these numbers as long as they are not going out of the +-5% window, but saying they mean nothing is wrong in my opinion. Stats like this alone doesn´t tell to much without some background knowledge like every statistic or study. On the other hand is the "to small sample size" wrong. Almost every scientific study works with smaller sample size that is just calculated to a trend. If we would cover all games played in the last month you could argue that "99% of all players are to bad to take them into account" and you wouldn´t be wrong. But thats all we have to discuss and the past statistics show that they are pretty consistent data.
nonononnooooo
science using smaller sample size??? absolutely not!
only if for some reason it's impossible (or to expensive, etc) to have a larger one.
also maybe in one single study they use a relatively smaller sample size, but (partly for this reason) there are multitudes of follow up studies and conclusions in general are made looking at the big picture.
in general of course there is almost always some way to interpret data, but in the case of balance, these numbers ARE absolutely meaningless, because the variance is significantly higher than our sensitivity:
people would be very displeased by a 10% difference in winrates (45-55), but in our case the confidence at which we could state that these figures are even within that +-5% boundary are accurate is very low.
this is why we can only measure very large imbalances within the pro starcraft scene, because simply there are just not enough competitive games played.
of course this does not mean there aren't any imbalances, but measuring it with the winrates is just not reliable.
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On December 09 2013 19:48 VeTerrAn1 wrote:Its so ridicoulus, to only take the win rates of pro level of play. There is a problem on the casual level of play, where terran is much weaker after the patch. But u guys only close your eyes. Also if we only see the upper tier terrans which are successful these days. I mean look at lucifron ... i really think he will retire soon, or change race ^^ i m really frustrated with the recent state of the game ... i play random these days, and its fun. However i don't know if its my bias of the terran race, but i m quiet decent with zerg and toss after only 25 games (gold level) i know its bad ^^ but i play high platin with terran, so there is not a big diffrence and i think i can reach top gold soon, if i play more games ... i mean now there are at least 9 matchups i have to learn (minus 3 i already know a bit ^^) however. it feels a lot easier to play with protoss or zerg ... but this is my opinion If we consider the GM or Master or Diamand distribution we see that there are so few terrans and this is still a sign that something is wrong ... i mean over all there is 33% of each race, but if we check all leagues, we see in bronze there are the most terrans, in all leagues above terran is underrepresented ... if i check all my terrans in my league, then i see they struggeling hard with protoss, maybe on pro level the terrans can reach 50%, but not on lower level of play! Im really pissed of this game, why nerfing things ... balancing must be more decent and inteligent, why they don't higher the skill cap which is required for the other races ... nerfing Terran and buffing Toss or Zerg ends up in this scenario we see ... protoss can abuse so OP all ins/cheese, and zerg is the race which is more or less always on average (only at the end of WoL they were OP ^^) however. i really hope blizzard will do something, otherwise a lot of terran players quit or switch races ...
you have to balance for the top if it's a competitive game, sorry
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as balanced as it can get.
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On December 09 2013 20:24 sparklyresidue wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2013 19:48 VeTerrAn1 wrote:Its so ridicoulus, to only take the win rates of pro level of play. There is a problem on the casual level of play, where terran is much weaker after the patch. But u guys only close your eyes. Also if we only see the upper tier terrans which are successful these days. I mean look at lucifron ... i really think he will retire soon, or change race ^^ i m really frustrated with the recent state of the game ... i play random these days, and its fun. However i don't know if its my bias of the terran race, but i m quiet decent with zerg and toss after only 25 games (gold level) i know its bad ^^ but i play high platin with terran, so there is not a big diffrence and i think i can reach top gold soon, if i play more games ... i mean now there are at least 9 matchups i have to learn (minus 3 i already know a bit ^^) however. it feels a lot easier to play with protoss or zerg ... but this is my opinion If we consider the GM or Master or Diamand distribution we see that there are so few terrans and this is still a sign that something is wrong ... i mean over all there is 33% of each race, but if we check all leagues, we see in bronze there are the most terrans, in all leagues above terran is underrepresented ... if i check all my terrans in my league, then i see they struggeling hard with protoss, maybe on pro level the terrans can reach 50%, but not on lower level of play! Im really pissed of this game, why nerfing things ... balancing must be more decent and inteligent, why they don't higher the skill cap which is required for the other races ... nerfing Terran and buffing Toss or Zerg ends up in this scenario we see ... protoss can abuse so OP all ins/cheese, and zerg is the race which is more or less always on average (only at the end of WoL they were OP ^^) however. i really hope blizzard will do something, otherwise a lot of terran players quit or switch races ... you have to balance for the top if it's a competitive game, sorry
lol, u are exactly the typ of no brainers ... maybe blizzard hire ppl like you, could be, because they seem to have the common attitude like you!
there is always a solution ... what did blizzard make? They nerf, and buf, and nerf and nerf and buff ... its just stupid how they try to solve problems with balance ... instead they should think about design and how to even things out regarding the skill cap, which is the highest at terran playstlye, if the other races need the same effort to be sucessful, then things would be fair, but recently zerg and protoss needs less skill over all to reach masters/GM, and this is why on top leagues so few terrans are in.
Maybe u love PvP then GM is the place to be for you, but as Terran PvT is fucking Protoss favoured, because u need not as much micro, also u have an easy macro, warp in mechanics which are also very comfortable! anyways, i think u are a protoss player, and u think the game is still fine ... no other race needs so few apm to be sucessful ^^ this is another tendency ... think about it ...
PS: i play random, and i think protoss is boring compared with terran, but terran is 5times harder to execute
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On December 09 2013 20:38 VeTerrAn1 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2013 20:24 sparklyresidue wrote:On December 09 2013 19:48 VeTerrAn1 wrote:Its so ridicoulus, to only take the win rates of pro level of play. There is a problem on the casual level of play, where terran is much weaker after the patch. But u guys only close your eyes. Also if we only see the upper tier terrans which are successful these days. I mean look at lucifron ... i really think he will retire soon, or change race ^^ i m really frustrated with the recent state of the game ... i play random these days, and its fun. However i don't know if its my bias of the terran race, but i m quiet decent with zerg and toss after only 25 games (gold level) i know its bad ^^ but i play high platin with terran, so there is not a big diffrence and i think i can reach top gold soon, if i play more games ... i mean now there are at least 9 matchups i have to learn (minus 3 i already know a bit ^^) however. it feels a lot easier to play with protoss or zerg ... but this is my opinion If we consider the GM or Master or Diamand distribution we see that there are so few terrans and this is still a sign that something is wrong ... i mean over all there is 33% of each race, but if we check all leagues, we see in bronze there are the most terrans, in all leagues above terran is underrepresented ... if i check all my terrans in my league, then i see they struggeling hard with protoss, maybe on pro level the terrans can reach 50%, but not on lower level of play! Im really pissed of this game, why nerfing things ... balancing must be more decent and inteligent, why they don't higher the skill cap which is required for the other races ... nerfing Terran and buffing Toss or Zerg ends up in this scenario we see ... protoss can abuse so OP all ins/cheese, and zerg is the race which is more or less always on average (only at the end of WoL they were OP ^^) however. i really hope blizzard will do something, otherwise a lot of terran players quit or switch races ... you have to balance for the top if it's a competitive game, sorry lol, u are exactly the typ of no brainers ... maybe blizzard hire ppl like you, could be, because they seem to have the common attitude like you! there is always a solution ... what did blizzard make? They nerf, and buf, and nerf and nerf and buff ... its just stupid how they try to solve problems with balance ... instead they should think about design and how to even things out regarding the skill cap, which is the highest at terran playstlye, if the other races need the same effort to be sucessful, then things would be fair, but recently zerg and protoss needs less skill over all to reach masters/GM, and this is why on top leagues so few terrans are in. Maybe u love PvP then GM is the place to be for you, but as Terran PvT is fucking Protoss favoured, because u need not as much micro, also u have an easy macro, warp in mechanics which are also very comfortable! anyways, i think u are a protoss player, and u think the game is still fine ... no other race needs so few apm to be sucessful ^^ this is another tendency ... think about it ... PS: i play random, and i think protoss is boring compared with terran, but terran is 5times harder to execute
i'm not sure a plat/gold level is much of an experiential basis to go on. i feel your frustration, but i don't really think it's likely, for example, that the sentry is going to be removed from the game, or even the forcefield spell drastically changed (if we're talking design).
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On December 09 2013 20:57 sparklyresidue wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2013 20:38 VeTerrAn1 wrote:On December 09 2013 20:24 sparklyresidue wrote:On December 09 2013 19:48 VeTerrAn1 wrote:Its so ridicoulus, to only take the win rates of pro level of play. There is a problem on the casual level of play, where terran is much weaker after the patch. But u guys only close your eyes. Also if we only see the upper tier terrans which are successful these days. I mean look at lucifron ... i really think he will retire soon, or change race ^^ i m really frustrated with the recent state of the game ... i play random these days, and its fun. However i don't know if its my bias of the terran race, but i m quiet decent with zerg and toss after only 25 games (gold level) i know its bad ^^ but i play high platin with terran, so there is not a big diffrence and i think i can reach top gold soon, if i play more games ... i mean now there are at least 9 matchups i have to learn (minus 3 i already know a bit ^^) however. it feels a lot easier to play with protoss or zerg ... but this is my opinion If we consider the GM or Master or Diamand distribution we see that there are so few terrans and this is still a sign that something is wrong ... i mean over all there is 33% of each race, but if we check all leagues, we see in bronze there are the most terrans, in all leagues above terran is underrepresented ... if i check all my terrans in my league, then i see they struggeling hard with protoss, maybe on pro level the terrans can reach 50%, but not on lower level of play! Im really pissed of this game, why nerfing things ... balancing must be more decent and inteligent, why they don't higher the skill cap which is required for the other races ... nerfing Terran and buffing Toss or Zerg ends up in this scenario we see ... protoss can abuse so OP all ins/cheese, and zerg is the race which is more or less always on average (only at the end of WoL they were OP ^^) however. i really hope blizzard will do something, otherwise a lot of terran players quit or switch races ... you have to balance for the top if it's a competitive game, sorry lol, u are exactly the typ of no brainers ... maybe blizzard hire ppl like you, could be, because they seem to have the common attitude like you! there is always a solution ... what did blizzard make? They nerf, and buf, and nerf and nerf and buff ... its just stupid how they try to solve problems with balance ... instead they should think about design and how to even things out regarding the skill cap, which is the highest at terran playstlye, if the other races need the same effort to be sucessful, then things would be fair, but recently zerg and protoss needs less skill over all to reach masters/GM, and this is why on top leagues so few terrans are in. Maybe u love PvP then GM is the place to be for you, but as Terran PvT is fucking Protoss favoured, because u need not as much micro, also u have an easy macro, warp in mechanics which are also very comfortable! anyways, i think u are a protoss player, and u think the game is still fine ... no other race needs so few apm to be sucessful ^^ this is another tendency ... think about it ... PS: i play random, and i think protoss is boring compared with terran, but terran is 5times harder to execute i'm not sure a plat/gold level is much of an experiential basis to go on. i feel your frustration, but i don't really think it's likely, for example, that the sentry is going to be removed from the game, or even the forcefield spell drastically changed (if we're talking design).
sorry for beeing rude ... but the frustration level is very high ^^
i m not a pro, so my insight of the game is not that good, but its good enough to see when something is broken. There were pro players which clearly say that the oracle buff is not necessary (also Toss players). Thus i don't understand why they implement this buff anyways ... only because they wanna see more action ... sad story, true ...
however, i think especially against Zerg the sentry is a key unit ... when i play toss against zerg i need the sentry otherwise i have plenty of zerglings in my mineral line and lose the game ... i don't say that i have the solution on the tablet but i earn no money, if they will hire me and give me a loan, i will find a solution (unbiased as possible ^^ i swear). I see the fragile part of the balance, but i don't know why the change so much after HotS, because i remember when HotS came out, the problems were not so big (WM nerf was ok) but all the nerfs and buffs together destroys the already good balance, and make the game (in terrans point of view) uncomfortable ...
I don't wanna insult you, only because u play another race, its not your problem if DK don't make his job ...
i mean --> Protoss as a whole race is broken:
Colossi: so damn strong, hardcountered by vikings, but vikings are useless if the protoss switch to Ht's /Zealot/Archon/Stalker Army
Immortal: destroy every mech plan of terran
HT: so huge damage output against bio, matchwinning also on Pro level
DT's: do huge dmg also against buildings, if behind darkshrine ^^
Void Rays: strong, but buffed
Oracle: strong, but also buffed --> now OP
i mean also zealots are fucking strong, MSC/Zealot/Stalker pressure against Terran is damn strong ... wtf
Blink Allin / Oracle proxy or expand --> too strong, also if scouted early (espcially Blink)
no scouting against Terran --> its not necessary ... = imbalance
but i stop now ... i can understand that protoss must be the race with the hightech units, but this must not result in a imbalanced game ...
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On December 09 2013 21:21 VeTerrAn1 wrote:
I see the fragile part of the balance, but i don't know why the change so much after HotS, because i remember when HotS came out, the problems were not so big (WM nerf was ok) but all the nerfs and buffs together destroys the already good balance, and make the game (in terrans point of view) uncomfortable ...
1) There have actually been very, very few changes. It's simply not right to say they change a lot when blizzard actually lets the game vegetate with glaring (pretty universally accepted) issues like Mech being not strong enough or ZvZ being roachgalore and no real solutions, despite the community presenting one after the other.
2) People actually want changes. At least big parts of the community. E.g. the famous post of MC about TvZ and how it's pretty stale. Not to mention TvP, for which you could remove 50% of the units of both races and you wouldn't notice the difference.
3) Most of the balance changes have been minor. Most of the changes in winrates have been contributed by metagame changes (e.g. TvP and TvZ have been going from >50% to <50% or ~50% anyways, even before the last patch). Which of course questions the necessity of the patches, yet also the impact that people accredit them.
As the statistics in the OP show, the winrates are actually quite fine and we absolutly cannot speak of "all the nerfs and buffs destroying the already good balance", since the statistics don't seem to be in shambles not to mention: not long enough to be significant.
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to me the game looks pretty balance BUT only for the highest level. Protoss has a huge advantage in lower leagues imo...
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On December 09 2013 19:30 TheBloodyDwarf wrote:I meant in matches that op includes. Still, just wow :O luci is playing so bad :/
I just wanted to show it in a more visual way. I just choose 1st of november as a starting date at random, I know you were referring to the last 2 weeks or so.
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to me it looks like the winrates were more balanced pre patch, so why did they even patch in the first place??
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On December 09 2013 19:36 SiroKO wrote:
For now 52-48% is totally fine.
Though if the gap widens, or the number of competitive terran players decrease, or worse : both, there would be a problem.
This is a parameter which is not often (never?) taken into account in balance analysis.
When a race gets worse, the number of "competitive" players of this race decrease (in other words the worse Terran players stop to get invited, and they are less terrans at tournaments), and therefore the win-ratio doesn't necessarily decrease for that race.
Symetrically, when a race gets better, a lot of "frauds", patch-X whatever, get suddenly invited to prestigious tournaments and contribute to decrease the win ratio of their race.
Sure, but it could be the other way around, e.g. Lucifron is in fact not very good (relative to other top pros), but imbalance in favor of Terran allowed him to get a string of good results.
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On December 09 2013 22:37 skunk_works wrote:
to me it looks like the winrates were more balanced pre patch, so why did they even patch in the first place??
I noticed this too. Looks to me like everything got more imbalanced than before.
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Why are qualifiers included into the winrates if they are said to be "premier".
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On December 09 2013 22:37 skunk_works wrote:
to me it looks like the winrates were more balanced pre patch, so why did they even patch in the first place??
Way too less matches to say anything..anything..
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EPT
