Winrates since WCS S3 (Mostly since October)

On December 09 2013 06:20 Zealously wrote:


You realise that TvP was actually, statistically, less balanced pre-patch? With a per-matchup sample size of some 800 games (I think we can assume at least 600 TvPs were played post-patch), I don't think Taeja being a beast influenced the win rates that much.

On December 09 2013 06:28 nkr wrote:
Is there a way to filter these games and adjust them to my personal view of balance?

On December 09 2013 06:50 Faust852 wrote:
I got almost the same thing with Aligulac stats from the 4th october till now.

Pre patch
PvT 53,8%
PvZ 48,3%
TvZ 50,4%

Post patch
PvT 52,5%
PvZ 52,3%
TvZ 48,0%

But looking at the last list (list 99), things aren't going on the right tracks :
PvT 54.29%
PvZ 50.83%
TvZ 42.91%

Anyway, I think the reason why PvT has a more balanced W/R after the patch is that really good protoss like Daer, Trap & co didn't play that much after the 11/11.
For TvZ, we see more and more mass mutalisk that looks like a bit imbalanced.
Anyway, there are way less TvX match up than the others, that's also something that need to be noticed.

On December 09 2013 06:56 ZeromuS wrote:


Ladder is ladder. You can win randomly on ladder. There are a lot of one base all ins protoss can do vs Terran. Its similar to how terran was dominating early WoL - they just had so many early options that ladder could be abused by it.

On December 09 2013 06:53 RyF wrote:
Well those tournaments including the few best KR terrans are one thing. So the game seems pretty balanced at the high end Level of Play.

But what about this?

Protoss GMs by Region:

America ~ 98
Europe ~ 92
Korea ~ 82

Just random numbers? I don't think so. I think it's wrong to just look at those numbers and claim that the game is finally balanced.

On December 09 2013 07:10 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Thanks for the compilation! It's always good to have hard data, and it's nice to see a general balance between the races

Please don't show these statistics to Terrans. Doing 2% worse in their match-ups against the other races are data that many of the complainers are not yet ready to see.

On December 09 2013 07:14 geokilla wrote:
You can thank pro Terrans like Taeja and Maru to always keep the win rates in top tier tournaments. Terran when controlled well, performs like a God. Definitely the best race to play with the highest skill ceiling. Hell I think there's still room for improvement to exploit Terran even more.

For Protoss and Zerg, I feel that the player skill is not as high, save for a few players. When discussing top players, it always feel to me like there's more Top Terrans than top Zergs and Protoss combined for some reason.

On December 09 2013 07:14 bo1b wrote:

Has the patch been out for a month yet? I just don't see a justification for a balance patch after the game was pretty much balanced.

On December 09 2013 07:28 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:


You can thank pro Zergs like Soulkey and Life to always keep the win rates in top tier tournaments.

You can thank pro Protosses like Dear and Rain to always keep the win rates in top tier tournaments.

Am I doing it right?

On December 09 2013 07:05 bo1b wrote:
Why on earth would they make the changes they did god damnit, this is just like the queen patch too. Everything was balanced then aswell :\

On December 09 2013 07:32 RampancyTW wrote:
Quality of life patch, and was stated as such.

On December 09 2013 07:28 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:


You can thank pro Zergs like Soulkey and Life to always keep the win rates in top tier tournaments.

You can thank pro Protosses like Dear and Rain to always keep the win rates in top tier tournaments.

Am I doing it right?

On December 09 2013 07:17 StarStruck wrote:


Indeed, let the players play it out a bit more before we make such comments.

On December 09 2013 07:35 bo1b wrote:

Buff protoss and nerf terran is a quality of life patch?

On December 09 2013 06:50 Faust852 wrote:
I got almost the same thing with Aligulac stats from the 4th october till now.

Pre patch
PvT 53,8%
PvZ 48,3%
TvZ 50,4%

Post patch
PvT 52,5%
PvZ 52,3%
TvZ 48,0%

But looking at the last list (list 99), things aren't going on the right tracks :
PvT 54.29%
PvZ 50.83%
TvZ 42.91%

Anyway, I think the reason why PvT has a more balanced W/R after the patch is that really good protoss like Daer, Trap & co didn't play that much after the 11/11.
For TvZ, we see more and more mass mutalisk that looks like a bit imbalanced.
Anyway, there are way less TvX match up than the others, that's also something that need to be noticed.

On December 09 2013 07:28 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:


You can thank pro Zergs like Soulkey and Life to always keep the win rates in top tier tournaments.

You can thank pro Protosses like Dear and Rain to always keep the win rates in top tier tournaments.

Am I doing it right?

On December 09 2013 06:59 ffadicted wrote:
Looks like terrans are finally learning to adapt!
GJ Blizzard, good to see balanced stats

On December 09 2013 08:00 Psychobabas wrote:


They sure do. 2 base allin with SCVs and hope Protoss can't defend. If it doesnt work, its game over.

It's even more fun to watch those "games" happen in tournaments. Beautiful sight indeed.

...

On December 09 2013 08:02 Plansix wrote:

I like the part where you specifically referenced games where players did that to provide evidence to back up this claim....

oh wait.

On December 09 2013 08:05 Faust852 wrote:


It's a system Aligulac use, every 2 weeks there is a new list, and the list are just matchs up W/R in the 2 weeks time.

On December 09 2013 08:05 Faust852 wrote:


It's a system Aligulac use, every 2 weeks there is a new list, and the list are just matchs up W/R in the 2 weeks time.

On December 09 2013 08:00 Psychobabas wrote:


They sure do. 2 base allin with SCVs and hope Protoss can't defend. If it doesnt work, its game over.

It's even more fun to watch those "games" happen in tournaments. Beautiful sight indeed.

...

On December 09 2013 08:01 zezamer wrote:
complain about tvp been played exactly the same way for 2 years instead of who has couple % advantage this month?

On December 09 2013 06:53 RyF wrote:
Well those tournaments including the few best KR terrans are one thing. So the game seems pretty balanced at the high end Level of Play.

But what about this?

Protoss GMs by Region:

America ~ 98
Europe ~ 92
Korea ~ 82

Just random numbers? I don't think so. I think it's wrong to just look at those numbers and claim that the game is finally balanced.

On December 09 2013 08:23 McRatyn wrote:


In a game that is played as a major e-sport only the high end games matter, and nothing else.

On December 09 2013 08:28 FrostedMiniWheats wrote:
huh, the PvT stats are odd. If anything you'd think it'd be the other way around with Protoss mostly getting all the benefits in the last patch.

It's not like we've seen an increase in mech nor even more siege tank usage in that matchup.

On December 09 2013 08:28 FrostedMiniWheats wrote:
huh, the PvT stats are odd. If anything you'd think it'd be the other way around with Protoss mostly getting all the benefits in the last patch.

It's not like we've seen an increase in mech nor even more siege tank usage in that matchup.

On December 09 2013 11:14 Waxangel wrote:
is DK a god?

On December 09 2013 09:12 goody153 wrote:
balance still pretty good. i was expecting horrible balance like 20% winrate increase from one side

On December 09 2013 16:33 Qwerty85 wrote:
So out of those 2.4k games, what is the sample size before and what is after the patch?

On December 09 2013 17:06 USvBleakill wrote:
TvZ is kinda interesting, TvP the numbers doesn´t really matter. TvP will always have some weird numbers because there are way more successful foreign Protoss than Terrans.

On December 09 2013 17:06 USvBleakill wrote:
TvZ is kinda interesting, TvP the numbers doesn´t really matter. TvP will always have some weird numbers because there are way more successful foreign Protoss than Terrans.

On December 09 2013 16:33 Qwerty85 wrote:
So out of those 2.4k games, what is the sample size before and what is after the patch?

On December 09 2013 07:14 Blargh wrote:
Unfortunately, the game is still horribly designed with units such as the Oracle in the game. Do you really want a unit that flies at Nascar speeds and has the potential to kill a whole mineral line in about 10 seconds. It's just a unit in the game that really do not add anything truly "skill-requiring" to the game. Terran are stuck sitting with 5+ marines and a turret, and there is nothing else they can do about it.

So, the win rates can be completely even, but the game is still sort of bad. Too many units lack skill-requiring mechanics, which ends up limiting the game's "reflectiveness" of skill (meaning, skill is not represented very well).

@bo1b
There is zero reason why Blizzard shouldn't be actively trying to improve their game other than the fact that they don't really make any money off of SC2 any more. And that's the worst developer excuse (at least for a company as well-off as Blizzard is........) ever. Instead of just trying to make it so all of the races win an equal amount, they should be trying to improve the mechanics and aspects of the game. They should change some skills around so that they do something more interesting than totally slow a huge area (Time Warp). There is really nothing the Terran can do once time-warped, as the spell is gigantic and has far too strong of an effect. The role of TW is also fulfilled by Force Fields, so there was not really much of a reason to add it in the first place.

They have a TEST SERVER for this exact reason. Might as well have it constantly up with new changes. They could just throw totally random things up on the test server and it'd be better than how it is now.

On December 09 2013 17:39 Striker123 wrote:
I am surprised people are still talking about balance vs complaints on TvP....The problem lies in the design of TvP at the moment, not necessarily a balance issue. Obviously balance does come into play and many can see that by observing the ratio of toss vs terran players in Master and GM, and from that data, I would have to say that TvP is pretty balanced in pro scene atm (although many can argue that it's mainly due to like 2/3 korean terrans who are traditionally good since WoL days like Taeja).

The main problem that many terrans are addressing is the fact that due to design of Toss in general, ladder games can't be compared to LANs. Toss is a race that excels when one doesn't know how this person plays (a.k.a in ladder with so many barcodes in GM or randos that you haven't faced yet if you are in masters) due to the flexibility in early game. Now with the changes like MSC/Oracle Buff, it just adds on to so many things that toss can throw at you in terms of creativity (blink, dt, oracle, oracle into 3 gate, oracle into expo, greedy play with nexus cannon def, etc). This just makes TvP not FUN at all...it feels like when you win TvP that this toss tried to do something creative and failed horribly or you did not catch the timing attacks or the tech path toss went (in TvP no one can argue that Terran isn't the reactive race....if you don't choose the corresponding tech in forms of vikings vs col or ghosts vs ht, YOU ARE FUCKED. But if you guess it right, toss isn't always fucked and becomes a skill mu.)

This doesn't happen as much in LANs since you know how that toss player plays and what kind of tricks they excel at in particular (which is why even MC changed his playstyle from all-in('timing') into more macro cuz you just can't win when everyone knows your style as a protoss unless you go macro style). HOWEVER, in ladder, it's just 5-6 different openers toss throws at you, and you trying to predict it. The games NEVER go back and forth like TvZ or TvT....which really reduces the quality of MU imo. This is why many terrans are begging blizzard to buff mech so Terran can also have a tech path they can choose and hopefully make toss react to Terran's opener depending on maps.

On December 09 2013 17:24 vthree wrote:



I think we have to look at why that is. We can't just assume the better foreigners just play Protoss.

Also, strangely, I think the tournaments kind of balance themselves out in terms of win rate. There are very few big name foreign terrans so foreign teams end up picking up more Korean terrans and fly them to all the foreign events.

I don't have enough them to gather all the data. But I would be interested to know that if we took the top 10 players of each race (using alilugac or something) and see how many events they have been to since the patch. I have a feeling that the top 10 terrans go to a lot more tournaments compare to the top 10 protoss. Therefore, they end up pulling the win rate closer to 50%.

And I don't think we can throw out ladder data outright. Sure, if it is just for a single individual player, it might be because their style just works better when their opponent doesn't know their style(ie, mech in TvP, roach hydra in ZvT, etc). But blink all-ins, proxy oracles are pretty much in every protoss' arsenal, so if a terran player can be prepared for it in offline tournaments, they would be prepared on it on ladder.

After Soulkey's comment about lack of terrans on KR ladder, I went to check and there are 3 terrans in the top 30.

And I disagree that PvZ is like WoL. A lot of foreign protoss seem to prefer the 2 base all-ins. But Korean protoss are doing fine with taking a 3rd and defending it (although they still throw stuff like 2 base all-ins or each zealots (San!) to change things up). If you watch the Rain series, he has little to no problems taking his third. Yes, sometimes it gets cancelled/delayed but is not do or die.

On December 09 2013 18:20 AxionSteel wrote:
TvZ stats will continue to decline, TvP will always probably be around the same. It always seems somewhat balanced at the top level, no matter how frustrating it is for ladder terrans!

On December 09 2013 18:06 mihajovics wrote:
guys, guys...
please understand that these numbers mean (almost) ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!!!
the sample size is just too small.

like the guy above said, just losing ONE series 2-0 changes the winrates by 1% !!!

it's fun to know these numbers but we can absolutely not determine anything balance wise (except that there isn't an enormous imbalance, like 60%, which would be highly unlikely, but my guess is that even with a real 55-45 distribution people would be raging)

On December 09 2013 18:06 mihajovics wrote:
guys, guys...
please understand that these numbers mean (almost) ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!!!
the sample size is just too small.

like the guy above said, just losing ONE series 2-0 changes the winrates by 1% !!!

it's fun to know these numbers but we can absolutely not determine anything balance wise (except that there isn't an enormous imbalance, like 60%, which would be highly unlikely, but my guess is that even with a real 55-45 distribution people would be raging)

On December 09 2013 18:53 TheBloodyDwarf wrote:

Luci is 0-12 w/l in last two tournament
Edit: sorry, lucifron has 14 losses and 0 wins in last 2 tournaments.

Opponent Race:    all
Opponent Country: all
Match Format:     all
On/offline:       both
Game Version:     all

On December 09 2013 17:39 Striker123 wrote:

This doesn't happen as much in LANs since you know how that toss player plays and what kind of tricks they excel at in particular (which is why even MC changed his playstyle from all-in('timing') into more macro cuz you just can't win when everyone knows your style as a protoss unless you go macro style). HOWEVER, in ladder, it's just 5-6 different openers toss throws at you, and you trying to predict it. The games NEVER go back and forth like TvZ or TvT....which really reduces the quality of MU imo. This is why many terrans are begging blizzard to buff mech so Terran can also have a tech path they can choose and hopefully make toss react to Terran's opener depending on maps.

On December 09 2013 08:29 Plansix wrote:

Yeah, the number of ladder heroes that can make into GM In each region doesn't really matter for balance. Its first come, first served as well. People keep citing that data, but its just the thing they use when the win/loss ratios don't favor their argument.

On December 09 2013 17:19 vthree wrote:
I think we have to look at why that is. We can't just assume the better foreigners just play Protoss.

On December 09 2013 19:14 Grovbolle wrote:

Results for LucifroN after 2013-11-01.

Games: 15.79% (3-16)
Matches: 27.27% (3-8)

Current Form:
      W W L L L L L L L L
Recent Matches:
       LucifroN 0 – 3 jjakji
       LucifroN 0 – 3 elfi
       LucifroN 0 – 2 NaNiwa
       LucifroN 0 – 2 Patience
       LucifroN 0 – 2 TLO
       LucifroN 0 – 2 HyuN
       LucifroN 0 – 1 Alicia
       LucifroN 0 – 1 Sting
       LucifroN 1 – 0 Daisy
       LucifroN 1 – 0 StarNaN


Filters:
+ Show Spoiler +
Stats by Aligulac. Link.

On December 09 2013 19:30 TheBloodyDwarf wrote:

I meant in matches that op includes. Still, just wow :O luci is playing so bad :/

On December 09 2013 18:36 USvBleakill wrote:


I think too that we shouldn't look too much at these numbers as long as they are not going out of the +-5% window, but saying they mean nothing is wrong in my opinion. Stats like this alone doesn´t tell to much without some background knowledge like every statistic or study.

On the other hand is the "to small sample size" wrong. Almost every scientific study works with smaller sample size that is just calculated to a trend. If we would cover all games played in the last month you could argue that "99% of all players are to bad to take them into account" and you wouldn´t be wrong.

But thats all we have to discuss and the past statistics show that they are pretty consistent data.

On December 09 2013 20:24 sparklyresidue wrote:

you have to balance for the top if it's a competitive game, sorry

On December 09 2013 20:57 sparklyresidue wrote:


i'm not sure a plat/gold level is much of an experiential basis to go on. i feel your frustration, but i don't really think it's likely, for example, that the sentry is going to be removed from the game, or even the forcefield spell drastically changed (if we're talking design).

On December 09 2013 21:21 VeTerrAn1 wrote:
I see the fragile part of the balance, but i don't know why the change so much after HotS, because i remember when HotS came out, the problems were not so big (WM nerf was ok) but all the nerfs and buffs together destroys the already good balance, and make the game (in terrans point of view) uncomfortable ...

On December 09 2013 19:30 TheBloodyDwarf wrote:

I meant in matches that op includes. Still, just wow :O luci is playing so bad :/

On December 09 2013 19:36 SiroKO wrote:
For now 52-48% is totally fine.
Though if the gap widens, or the number of competitive terran players decrease, or worse : both, there would be a problem.

This is a parameter which is not often (never?) taken into account in balance analysis.
When a race gets worse, the number of "competitive" players of this race decrease (in other words the worse Terran players stop to get invited, and they are less terrans at tournaments), and therefore the win-ratio doesn't necessarily decrease for that race.
Symetrically, when a race gets better, a lot of "frauds", patch-X whatever, get suddenly invited to prestigious tournaments and contribute to decrease the win ratio of their race.

On December 09 2013 22:37 skunk_works wrote:
to me it looks like the winrates were more balanced pre patch, so why did they even patch in the first place??

On December 09 2013 23:50 BakedButters wrote:
I expect Terrans to stop doing MMMM, and go into mech to balance out TvZ.

On December 10 2013 03:22 Orek wrote:
Smaller sample size, then some people complain about it.
Bigger sample size, then others complain about the quality of the games.

No matter how big or small sample sizes are, people find a way to discredit it. Maybe we should kidnap all those top Korean players and have them play millions of games in a basement so that we can finally have a huge quality sample size.

On December 10 2013 01:39 deepfield1 wrote:
so 2400 total games.. how many of those are PVT?

I think the sample size is way too small considering the amount of metagaming that goes on in these tournaments. Also the korean vs foreigner skill gap.

Is there any tool available to look at ALL korean GM games?

On December 10 2013 03:22 Orek wrote:
Smaller sample size, then some people complain about it.
Bigger sample size, then others complain about the quality of the games.

No matter how big or small sample sizes are, people find a way to discredit it. Maybe we should kidnap all those top Korean players and have them play millions of games in a basement so that we can finally have a huge quality sample size.

On December 10 2013 03:32 Qwerty85 wrote:


205 TvP games after the patch.
428 games before the patch.

Btw. If I am doing my math correctly, there is around 350 game discrepancy between the sample size stated on the image and the actual games listed in the google doc.

Not sure where those games disappeared, I asked the OP about it, but so far no response from him.

On December 10 2013 04:05 deepfield1 wrote:


all of korean GM would be a good place to start.

Who is complaining about a large sample size? and quality of games? lol