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Winrates since WCS S3 (Mostly since October) - Page 7

Forum Index > SC2 General
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BakedButters
Profile Joined November 2011
United States748 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-12-09 15:02:30
December 09 2013 14:50 GMT
#121
I expect Terrans to stop doing MMMM, and go into mech to balance out TvZ.

TvP seems balanced, but the oracle is still broken, because any unit with high damage that can obliterate mineral lines gives the game another luck factor, (like DTs, pre-nerfed hellbats, banshees during 1/1/1) and the game is already heavily luck based as is.

I only expect Protoss to continue to win more against T and Z in the future
Snute <3 Bomber <3 Parting <3 Life <3
mihajovics
Profile Joined April 2011
179 Posts
December 09 2013 15:04 GMT
#122
I flipped a coin a couple of times and heads won with 115 out of 216 that's a 53.2% winrate for HvT.
Than I flipped some again and now tails won 102 out of 195, that's a 52.3% winrate for TvH.

OMG T got better after patch!!!
blah, blah, imba, imba, redesign the game, remove forciefieldstimcolossusswarmhost give us back the reaver.
Noonius
Profile Joined April 2012
Estonia17413 Posts
December 09 2013 16:03 GMT
#123
terran just needs warhound back and all will be well
Terran forever | Maru hater forever
VieuxSinge
Profile Joined February 2011
France231 Posts
December 09 2013 16:26 GMT
#124
On December 09 2013 23:50 BakedButters wrote:
I expect Terrans to stop doing MMMM, and go into mech to balance out TvZ.


One can still hope.

Sorry for being disillusional but I don't think it will happen :-p
Another clue to my existence.
NovemberstOrm
Profile Blog Joined September 2011
Canada16217 Posts
December 09 2013 16:33 GMT
#125
Thanks for posting the winrates!
Moderatorlickypiddy
sage_francis
Profile Joined December 2006
France1823 Posts
December 09 2013 16:35 GMT
#126
Sure thing is the game was more balanced before the patch.
As expected, this patch is a failure and illustrates the fact that most of the changes were not necessary.
deepfield1
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States373 Posts
December 09 2013 16:39 GMT
#127
so 2400 total games.. how many of those are PVT?

I think the sample size is way too small considering the amount of metagaming that goes on in these tournaments. Also the korean vs foreigner skill gap.

Is there any tool available to look at ALL korean GM games?
Orek
Profile Joined February 2012
1665 Posts
December 09 2013 18:22 GMT
#128
Smaller sample size, then some people complain about it.
Bigger sample size, then others complain about the quality of the games.

No matter how big or small sample sizes are, people find a way to discredit it. Maybe we should kidnap all those top Korean players and have them play millions of games in a basement so that we can finally have a huge quality sample size.
Dingodile
Profile Joined December 2011
4139 Posts
December 09 2013 18:28 GMT
#129
On December 10 2013 03:22 Orek wrote:
Smaller sample size, then some people complain about it.
Bigger sample size, then others complain about the quality of the games.

No matter how big or small sample sizes are, people find a way to discredit it. Maybe we should kidnap all those top Korean players and have them play millions of games in a basement so that we can finally have a huge quality sample size.

Without Top5 player each race is the best. A top5 player is winning against everyone until he mets a top5 player from other race.
Grubby | ToD | Moon | Lyn | Sky
Qwerty85
Profile Joined June 2012
Croatia5536 Posts
December 09 2013 18:32 GMT
#130
On December 10 2013 01:39 deepfield1 wrote:
so 2400 total games.. how many of those are PVT?

I think the sample size is way too small considering the amount of metagaming that goes on in these tournaments. Also the korean vs foreigner skill gap.

Is there any tool available to look at ALL korean GM games?


205 TvP games after the patch.
428 games before the patch.

Btw. If I am doing my math correctly, there is around 350 game discrepancy between the sample size stated on the image and the actual games listed in the google doc.

Not sure where those games disappeared, I asked the OP about it, but so far no response from him.
deepfield1
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States373 Posts
December 09 2013 19:05 GMT
#131
On December 10 2013 03:22 Orek wrote:
Smaller sample size, then some people complain about it.
Bigger sample size, then others complain about the quality of the games.

No matter how big or small sample sizes are, people find a way to discredit it. Maybe we should kidnap all those top Korean players and have them play millions of games in a basement so that we can finally have a huge quality sample size.


all of korean GM would be a good place to start.

Who is complaining about a large sample size? and quality of games? lol
ZenithM
Profile Joined February 2011
France15952 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-12-09 19:07:19
December 09 2013 19:06 GMT
#132
Still pretty good, but I fear a long fall toward an End-of-2012-like abyss for Terran.
larse
Profile Blog Joined March 2012
1611 Posts
December 09 2013 19:24 GMT
#133
On December 10 2013 03:32 Qwerty85 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 10 2013 01:39 deepfield1 wrote:
so 2400 total games.. how many of those are PVT?

I think the sample size is way too small considering the amount of metagaming that goes on in these tournaments. Also the korean vs foreigner skill gap.

Is there any tool available to look at ALL korean GM games?


205 TvP games after the patch.
428 games before the patch.

Btw. If I am doing my math correctly, there is around 350 game discrepancy between the sample size stated on the image and the actual games listed in the google doc.

Not sure where those games disappeared, I asked the OP about it, but so far no response from him.


Sorry the data set was not updated since the mistake. It is now updated.

Pre patch TvP has a sample size of 509

post patch TvP has a sample size of 205
Wingblade
Profile Joined April 2012
United States1806 Posts
December 09 2013 19:31 GMT
#134
On December 10 2013 04:05 deepfield1 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 10 2013 03:22 Orek wrote:
Smaller sample size, then some people complain about it.
Bigger sample size, then others complain about the quality of the games.

No matter how big or small sample sizes are, people find a way to discredit it. Maybe we should kidnap all those top Korean players and have them play millions of games in a basement so that we can finally have a huge quality sample size.


all of korean GM would be a good place to start.

Who is complaining about a large sample size? and quality of games? lol


Sure let's use blind, random bo1s online to determine our balance. I never really figured this out, no one has ever before pointed to ladder as legitimate balance evidence until now and anyone that tried was basically mocked. A race that relies more on tricks and gimmicks(Protoss) will naturally be better on ladder.
PartinG fanboy to the max, Rain/Squirtle/Dear/Scarlett/Bbyong are cool too. I don't always watch Dota2 but when I do I have no clue what's going on. GOGO POWER RANGERS
dyDrawer
Profile Joined September 2012
Canada438 Posts
December 09 2013 20:09 GMT
#135
That Oracle/Mine patch made things worse. It was more balanced before that it is now.
Dear, Rain, PartinG, Trap - "Glory to the Firstborn"
MadeInEarth
Profile Joined May 2013
United States1 Post
December 09 2013 21:34 GMT
#136
yes , David Kim destroyed the game
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
December 09 2013 23:20 GMT
#137
Does Fragbite Masters count in this tally?
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
zyce
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States649 Posts
December 14 2013 01:35 GMT
#138
Thanks for the interesting statistics. Balance is looking great.
Beauty is not the goal of competitive sports, but high-level sports are a prime venue for the expression of human beauty. The relation is roughly that of courage to war.
ManicMarine
Profile Joined April 2011
Australia409 Posts
December 14 2013 06:00 GMT
#139
Seems pretty close to perfect balance. The differences between pre-patch and post-patch winrates is probably statistical fluctuation.

OP can you give us p-values for the changes? I'd like to see how statistically significant the changes in winrate before and after the patch are.
Manic by name, Manic by nature.
yokohama
Profile Joined February 2005
United States1116 Posts
December 14 2013 07:06 GMT
#140
Looks like the balance in PvT could be tuned just a tiny bit, but other than that it looks surprisingly close.
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