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--------UPDATE Thursday, Jun 05 3:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS AM Premier Round of 16 set and HomeStory Cup 9 previews!
The round of 16 groups for WCS AM Premier have been set! Time for the usual with ro16 Premier groups - overview, previews, and then analysis of Group of Death! Also HomeStory Cup 9 previews!
Here's the current top 25 by chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +#1 ROCCAT   HyuN is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3100#2  MC is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3175#3 Yoe San is at ~ 99.89 %, Min WCS Points: 2650#4 KT Zest is at ~ 98.04 %, Min WCS Points: 2550#5 CM Storm  Polt is at ~ 97.37 %, Min WCS Points: 2300#6 StarTale Life is at ~ 89.75 %, Min WCS Points: 2500#7 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 79.85 %, Min WCS Points: 2050#8 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 79.01 %, Min WCS Points: 2300#9 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 70.25 %, Min WCS Points: 1800#10 Jinair sOs is at ~ 64.43 %, Min WCS Points: 2200#11 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 63.36 %, Min WCS Points: 1475#12 Liquid  Snute is at ~ 52.52 %, Min WCS Points: 1250#13 EG Jaedong is at ~ 43.54 %, Min WCS Points: 1550#14 Bomber is at ~ 42.34 %, Min WCS Points: 1200#15 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 41.82 %, Min WCS Points: 1750#16 Acer INnoVation is at ~ 39.1 %, Min WCS Points: 925#17 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 31.18 %, Min WCS Points: 900#18 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 30.97 %, Min WCS Points: 1150#19 Acer MMA is at ~ 30.71 %, Min WCS Points: 1200#20 Jinair Maru is at ~ 29.33 %, Min WCS Points: 1200#21 Galaxy Solar is at ~ 22.25 %, Min WCS Points: 875#22  VortiX is at ~ 21.39 %, Min WCS Points: 800#23 SKT T1 Soulkey is at ~ 16.57 %, Min WCS Points: 450#24 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 15.75 %, Min WCS Points: 1300#25 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 15.46 %, Min WCS Points: 1175
Here are the biggest winners and losers of the WCS AM ro16 group drawings.
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] + Bomber went up by ~ 2.34 %, going from ~ 39.99 % to ~ 42.34 % Heart went up by ~ 1.44 %, going from ~ 8.2 % to ~ 9.64 % viOLet went up by ~ 0.73 %, going from ~ 11.27 % to ~ 12.01 %
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] + Oz went down by ~ 1.64 %, going from ~ 17.39 % to ~ 15.75 % Check went down by ~ 0.99 %, going from ~ 15.46 % to ~ 14.46 % MajOr went down by ~ 0.91 %, going from ~ 9.67 % to ~ 8.76 % Alicia went down by ~ 0.72 %, going from ~ 16.17 % to ~ 15.46 %
Here are the previews for the WCS AM ro16 groups.
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+ Show Spoiler [viOLet, NesTea, Heart, XiGua in WCS AM…] +WCS AM S2 Premier - viOLet is at ~ 12.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.52 % of the time viOLet wins and their chances go up to ~ 18.35 %. ~ 42.48 % of the time viOLet loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - NesTea is at ~ 2.64 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 43.93 % of the time NesTea wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.36 %. ~ 56.07 % of the time NesTea loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.51 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Heart is at ~ 9.64 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 63.07 % of the time Heart wins and their chances go up to ~ 13.9 %. ~ 36.93 % of the time Heart loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.38 %. ------------------------------------------------- -  XiGua is at ~ 1.73 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.49 % of the time XiGua wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.19 %. ~ 64.51 % of the time XiGua loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.38 %.
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+ Show Spoiler [HyuN, Oz, Alicia, Revival in WCS AM S2…] +WCS AM S2 Premier - HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.7 % of the time HyuN wins and their chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 27.3 % of the time HyuN loses and their chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Oz is at ~ 15.75 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.35 % of the time Oz wins and their chances go up to ~ 30.5 %. ~ 62.65 % of the time Oz loses and their chances go down to ~ 6.96 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Alicia is at ~ 15.46 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 44.97 % of the time Alicia wins and their chances go up to ~ 27.49 %. ~ 55.03 % of the time Alicia loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.62 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Revival is at ~ 10.95 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 44.98 % of the time Revival wins and their chances go up to ~ 19.91 %. ~ 55.02 % of the time Revival loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.63 %.
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+ Show Spoiler [Bomber, Arthur, Check, Pigbaby in WCS…] +WCS AM S2 Premier - Bomber is at ~ 42.34 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 66.27 % of the time Bomber wins and their chances go up to ~ 53.56 %. ~ 33.73 % of the time Bomber loses and their chances go down to ~ 20.3 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Arthur is at ~ 9.63 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.84 % of the time Arthur wins and their chances go up to ~ 16.38 %. ~ 52.16 % of the time Arthur loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.43 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Check is at ~ 14.46 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 44.25 % of the time Check wins and their chances go up to ~ 25.88 %. ~ 55.75 % of the time Check loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.4 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pigbaby is at ~ 2.9 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 41.65 % of the time Pigbaby wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.29 %. ~ 58.35 % of the time Pigbaby loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.48 %.
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+ Show Spoiler [TaeJa, Polt, TooDming, MajOr in WCS AM…] +WCS AM S2 Premier - TaeJa is at ~ 63.36 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.29 % of the time TaeJa wins and their chances go up to ~ 75.88 %. ~ 37.71 % of the time TaeJa loses and their chances go down to ~ 42.69 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Polt is at ~ 97.37 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.47 % of the time Polt wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.7 %. ~ 37.53 % of the time Polt loses and their chances go down to ~ 93.48 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TooDming is at ~ 2.98 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 35.68 % of the time TooDming wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.81 %. ~ 64.32 % of the time TooDming loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.85 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MajOr is at ~ 8.76 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 39.56 % of the time MajOr wins and their chances go up to ~ 17.12 %. ~ 60.44 % of the time MajOr loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.29 %.
Here are the winning chances for WCS AM.
+ Show Spoiler [WCS AM Winning Chances] +WCS AM S2 Premier HyuN has a ~ 23.38 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % Polt has a ~ 13.98 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 97.37 % to ~ 100 % TaeJa has a ~ 11.78 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 63.36 % to ~ 100 % Bomber has a ~ 10.42 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 42.34 % to ~ 100 % viOLet has a ~ 5.94 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 12.01 % to ~ 97.69 % Heart has a ~ 5.51 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.64 % to ~ 97.64 % Alicia has a ~ 4.57 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 15.46 % to ~ 100 % Arthur has a ~ 3.98 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.63 % to ~ 99.86 % Check has a ~ 3.74 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.46 % to ~ 99.99 % Revival has a ~ 3.68 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 10.95 % to ~ 99.99 % MajOr has a ~ 3.22 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 8.76 % to ~ 99.71 % Oz has a ~ 2.79 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 15.75 % to ~ 100 % Pigbaby has a ~ 2.37 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.9 % to ~ 74.26 % NesTea has a ~ 1.86 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.64 % to ~ 86.67 % TooDming has a ~ 1.63 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.98 % to ~ 96.72 % XiGua has a ~ 1.16 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.73 % to ~ 89.46 %
Here are the previews for HomeStory Cup 9.
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+ Show Spoiler [MMA, TLO, BlinG, iNcontroL in HomeStor…] +HomeStory Cup 9 - MMA is at ~ 30.71 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 73.45 % of the time MMA wins and their chances go up to ~ 34.88 %. ~ 26.55 % of the time MMA loses and their chances go down to ~ 19.14 %. ------------------------------------------------- -  TLO is at ~ 2.53 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 69.35 % of the time TLO wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.99 %. ~ 30.65 % of the time TLO loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.49 %. ------------------------------------------------- -  BlinG is at ~ 0.35 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 50.99 % of the time BlinG wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.45 %. ~ 49.01 % of the time BlinG loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.24 %. ------------------------------------------------- -  iNcontroL is at ~ 0 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 6.2 % of the time iNcontroL wins and their chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 93.8 % of the time iNcontroL loses and their chances go down to ~ 0 %.
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+ Show Spoiler [jjakji, NightEnD, TargA, HeRoMaRinE in…] +HomeStory Cup 9 - jjakji is at ~ 79.85 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.33 % of the time jjakji wins and their chances go up to ~ 84.73 %. ~ 27.67 % of the time jjakji loses and their chances go down to ~ 67.08 %. ------------------------------------------------- -  NightEnD is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 25.78 % of the time NightEnD wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 74.22 % of the time NightEnD loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TargA is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 53.68 % of the time TargA wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.02 %. ~ 46.32 % of the time TargA loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HeRoMaRinE is at ~ 0.02 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.22 % of the time HeRoMaRinE wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.03 %. ~ 51.78 % of the time HeRoMaRinE loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
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+ Show Spoiler [MC, Harstem, Dayshi, FireCake in HomeS…] +HomeStory Cup 9 - MC is at ~ 99.99 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.4 % of the time MC wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 27.6 % of the time MC loses and their chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- -  Harstem is at ~ 3.59 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.2 % of the time Harstem wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.03 %. ~ 42.8 % of the time Harstem loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.99 %. ------------------------------------------------- -  Dayshi is at ~ 0.63 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 43.92 % of the time Dayshi wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.8 %. ~ 56.08 % of the time Dayshi loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.49 %. ------------------------------------------------- - FireCake is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 26.48 % of the time FireCake wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 73.52 % of the time FireCake loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
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+ Show Spoiler [Snute, DeMusliM, White-Ra, Stork in Ho…] +HomeStory Cup 9 - Snute is at ~ 52.52 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 81.93 % of the time Snute wins and their chances go up to ~ 55.24 %. ~ 18.07 % of the time Snute loses and their chances go down to ~ 40.22 %. ------------------------------------------------- - DeMusliM is at ~ 0.02 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.69 % of the time DeMusliM wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.03 %. ~ 62.31 % of the time DeMusliM loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- -  White-Ra is at ~ 0 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 13.2 % of the time White-Ra wins and their chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 86.8 % of the time White-Ra loses and their chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Stork is at ~ 0.84 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 67.19 % of the time Stork wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.99 %. ~ 32.81 % of the time Stork loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.52 %.
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+ Show Spoiler [Bomber, ToD, Ret, Balloon in HomeStory…] +HomeStory Cup 9 - Bomber is at ~ 42.34 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 79.26 % of the time Bomber wins and their chances go up to ~ 44.83 %. ~ 20.74 % of the time Bomber loses and their chances go down to ~ 32.83 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ToD is at ~ 4.38 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.47 % of the time ToD wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.84 %. ~ 42.53 % of the time ToD loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.76 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Ret is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 26.28 % of the time Ret wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 73.72 % of the time Ret loses and their chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- -  Balloon is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 36.99 % of the time Balloon wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 63.01 % of the time Balloon loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
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+ Show Spoiler [YoDa, MaNa, Jaedong, Socke in HomeStor…] +HomeStory Cup 9 - YoDa is at ~ 5.89 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 50.99 % of the time YoDa wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.76 %. ~ 49.01 % of the time YoDa loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.98 %. ------------------------------------------------- -  MaNa is at ~ 4.18 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.37 % of the time MaNa wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.84 %. ~ 52.63 % of the time MaNa loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.59 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jaedong is at ~ 43.54 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 66.95 % of the time Jaedong wins and their chances go up to ~ 49.82 %. ~ 33.05 % of the time Jaedong loses and their chances go down to ~ 30.83 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Socke is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 34.69 % of the time Socke wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 65.31 % of the time Socke loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
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+ Show Spoiler [Stephano, HasuObs, Bunny, Armani in Ho…] +HomeStory Cup 9 - Stephano is at ~ 0.45 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.4 % of the time Stephano wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.63 %. ~ 52.6 % of the time Stephano loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.29 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HasuObs is at ~ 0.03 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.99 % of the time HasuObs wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.04 %. ~ 51.01 % of the time HasuObs loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- -  Bunny is at ~ 3.36 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.12 % of the time Bunny wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.09 %. ~ 43.88 % of the time Bunny loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.43 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Armani is at ~ 0.03 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.48 % of the time Armani wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.05 %. ~ 52.52 % of the time Armani loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.02 %.
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+ Show Spoiler [TaeJa, Scarlett, roof, Patience in Hom…] +HomeStory Cup 9 - TaeJa is at ~ 63.36 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 66.86 % of the time TaeJa wins and their chances go up to ~ 68.37 %. ~ 33.14 % of the time TaeJa loses and their chances go down to ~ 53.27 %. ------------------------------------------------- -  Scarlett is at ~ 0.28 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.39 % of the time Scarlett wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.4 %. ~ 52.61 % of the time Scarlett loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.17 %. ------------------------------------------------- - roof is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 23.97 % of the time roof wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 76.03 % of the time roof loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Patience is at ~ 7.83 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 61.77 % of the time Patience wins and their chances go up to ~ 9.28 %. ~ 38.23 % of the time Patience loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.48 %.
Here are the winning chances for HomeStory Cup 9.
+ Show Spoiler [HSC9 Winning Chances] +HomeStory Cup 9 MMA has a ~ 11.9 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 30.71 % to ~ 63.24 % jjakji has a ~ 10.29 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 79.85 % to ~ 99.94 % Snute has a ~ 10.12 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 52.52 % to ~ 83.12 % MC has a ~ 9.99 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % Jaedong has a ~ 7.55 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 43.54 % to ~ 87.09 % Bomber has a ~ 7.54 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 42.34 % to ~ 74.41 % TaeJa has a ~ 7.33 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 63.36 % to ~ 94.15 % Patience has a ~ 6.21 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.83 % to ~ 22.14 % Stork has a ~ 3.55 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.84 % to ~ 2.7 % Bunny has a ~ 2.54 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.36 % to ~ 14.26 % Scarlett has a ~ 2.26 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.28 % to ~ 1.88 % YoDa has a ~ 2.13 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.89 % to ~ 14.31 % HasuObs has a ~ 2.1 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.23 % TLO has a ~ 2.09 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.53 % to ~ 14.58 % Harstem has a ~ 1.76 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 3.59 % to ~ 9.39 % ToD has a ~ 1.75 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.38 % to ~ 11.47 % HeRoMaRinE has a ~ 1.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.18 % MaNa has a ~ 1.53 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.18 % to ~ 12.34 % Stephano has a ~ 1.44 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.45 % to ~ 1.85 % TargA has a ~ 1.34 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.13 % Armani has a ~ 1.28 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.24 % BlinG has a ~ 1.23 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.35 % to ~ 1.36 % Dayshi has a ~ 1.12 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.63 % to ~ 3.21 % Socke has a ~ 0.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.03 %
Now let's look at some stats to figure out the group of death. We will look at 3 different scores the same way we did the GSL and WCS EU ro16 analysis.
WCS AM Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing.
+ Show Spoiler [WCS AM Chances Scores] +
Group A -
viOLet has a ~ 5.94 % chance to win WCS AM Season 2.
NesTea has a ~ 1.86 % chance
XiGua has a ~ 1.16 % chance
Heart has a ~ 5.51 % chance
All these chances added up gives a 14.47 WCS AM Chances Score for Group A
Group B -
Alicia has a ~ 4.57 % chance
Revival has a ~ 3.68 % chance
HyuN has a ~ 23.38 % chance
Oz has a ~ 2.79 % chance
34.42 WCS AM Chances Score for Group B
Group C -
Pigbaby has a ~ 2.37 % chance
Arthur has a ~ 3.98 % chance
Bomber has a ~ 10.42 % chance
Check has a ~ 3.74 % chance
20.51 WCS AM Chances Score for Group C
Group D -
TaeJa has a ~ 11.78 % chance
TooDming has a ~ 1.63 % chance
Polt has a ~ 13.98 % chance
MajOr has a ~ 3.22 % chance
30.61 WCS AM Chances Score for Group D
Which means the groups go in this order according to the WCS AM Chances Scores
B > D > C > A
+ Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances] +
Group A -
viOLet went up by ~ 0.74 %, from ~ 11.27 % up to ~ 12.01 %
NesTea went up by ~ 0.11 %, from ~ 2.53 % up to ~ 2.64 %
XiGua went down by ~ 0.04 %, from ~ 1.77 % down to ~ 1.73 %
Heart went up by ~ 1.44 %, from ~ 8.2 % up to ~ 9.64 %
All these chances added up gives a 26.02 Blizzcon Chances Score, and a -2.25 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score for Group A.
Group B -
Alicia went down by ~ 0.71 %, from ~ 16.17 % down to ~ 15.46 %
Revival went down by ~ 0.48 %, from ~ 11.43 % down to ~ 10.95 %
HyuN stayed about the same, above 99.9999%, we'll just consider him 99.99%
Oz went down by ~ 1.64 %, from ~ 17.39 % down to ~ 15.75 %
142.15 Blizzcon Chances Score, and 2.83 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score for Group B
Group C -
Pigbaby went down by ~ 0.06 %, from ~ 2.96 % down to ~ 2.9 %
Arthur went down by ~ 0.09 %, from ~ 9.72 % down to ~ 9.63 %
Bomber went up by ~ 2.35 %, from ~ 39.99 % up to ~ 42.34 %
Check went down by ~ 1 %, from ~ 15.46 % down to ~ 14.46 %
69.33 Blizzcon Chances Score, and -1.2 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score for Group C
Group D -
TaeJa went up by ~ 0.37 %, from ~ 62.99 % up to ~ 63.36 %
TooDming went down by ~ 0.18 %, from ~ 3.16 % down to ~ 2.98 %
Polt went down by ~ 0.14 %, from ~ 97.51 % down to ~ 97.37 %
MajOr went down by ~ 0.91 %, from ~ 9.67 % down to ~ 8.76 %
172.47 Blizzcon Chances Score, and 0.86 Blizzcon Chances Lost Score for Group D
According to the Blizzcon Chances Scores the groups go in this order
D > B > C > A
And according to the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores, the groups go in this order
B > D > C > A
So in 2/3 of our metrics we have Group B being the group of death, and it's 2nd place in the other metric, Group B is our Group of Death! Congrats to Alicia, Revival, HyuN, and Oz!
Our 2nd place Group of Death is Group D which got 1st place in Blizzcon Chances Score, as well as a 2nd placing in our 2 other metrics.
What do you think?
Poll: Group of death?Group B (8) 67% Group D (3) 25% Group C (1) 8% Group A (0) 0% 12 total votes Your vote: Group of death? (Vote): Group A
(Vote): Group B
(Vote): Group C
(Vote): Group D
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WCS AM did a redraw on their ro16 groups. Maybe I'll redo the whole analysis for it later. For now here are the big changes from that redraw, but this also includes the changes from HomeStory Cup and of course Aligulac rating changes.
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] + jjakji went up by ~ 5.02 %, going from ~ 79.86 % to ~ 84.88 % Oz went up by ~ 3.2 %, going from ~ 15.74 % to ~ 18.94 % MMA went up by ~ 2.67 %, going from ~ 30.7 % to ~ 33.37 % Snute went up by ~ 2.11 %, going from ~ 52.54 % to ~ 54.65 % TLO went up by ~ 0.97 %, going from ~ 2.53 % to ~ 3.5 %
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] + Bomber went down by ~ 2.99 %, going from ~ 42.35 % to ~ 39.36 % Jaedong went down by ~ 1.28 %, going from ~ 43.55 % to ~ 42.26 % Heart went down by ~ 1.13 %, going from ~ 9.64 % to ~ 8.5 % Revival went down by ~ 0.78 %, going from ~ 10.94 % to ~ 10.16 % Arthur went down by ~ 0.78 %, going from ~ 9.63 % to ~ 8.85 % TaeJa went down by ~ 0.7 %, going from ~ 63.35 % to ~ 62.64 % viOLet went down by ~ 0.63 %, going from ~ 12.01 % to ~ 11.38 % Harstem went down by ~ 0.62 %, going from ~ 3.59 % to ~ 2.97 % Check went down by ~ 0.6 %, going from ~ 14.46 % to ~ 13.86 %
Looks like Oz really benefited from his new group, while the new groups hurt Bomber, Heart, Revival, and Arthur.
Don't miss tonight's GSL group!
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+ Show Spoiler [Soulkey, INnoVation, Zest, Shine in GS…] +GSL S2 Code S - Soulkey is at ~ 16.47 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.51 % of the time Soulkey wins and their chances go up to ~ 26.24 %. ~ 43.49 % of the time Soulkey loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.77 %. ------------------------------------------------- - INnoVation is at ~ 39.03 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 67.09 % of the time INnoVation wins and their chances go up to ~ 51.31 %. ~ 32.91 % of the time INnoVation loses and their chances go down to ~ 13.98 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Zest is at ~ 97.93 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 46.39 % of the time Zest wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.98 %. ~ 53.61 % of the time Zest loses and their chances go down to ~ 96.15 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Shine is at ~ 1.47 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 30.01 % of the time Shine wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.6 %. ~ 69.99 % of the time Shine loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.12 %.
And tomorrow's HomeStory Cup groups!
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+ Show Spoiler [Bomber, ToD, Ret, Balloon in HomeStory…] +HomeStory Cup 9 - Bomber is at ~ 39.4 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 79.27 % of the time Bomber wins and their chances go up to ~ 41.68 %. ~ 20.73 % of the time Bomber loses and their chances go down to ~ 30.65 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ToD is at ~ 4.19 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.45 % of the time ToD wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.62 %. ~ 42.55 % of the time ToD loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.62 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Ret is at ~ 0 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 26.3 % of the time Ret wins and their chances go up to ~ 0 %. ~ 73.7 % of the time Ret loses and their chances go down to ~ 0 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Balloon is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 36.97 % of the time Balloon wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 63.03 % of the time Balloon loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [YoDa, MaNa, Jaedong, Socke in HomeStor…] +HomeStory Cup 9 - YoDa is at ~ 5.77 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 51.04 % of the time YoDa wins and their chances go up to ~ 6.58 %. ~ 48.96 % of the time YoDa loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.93 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaNa is at ~ 4.03 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.37 % of the time MaNa wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.63 %. ~ 52.63 % of the time MaNa loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.48 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Jaedong is at ~ 42.23 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 66.89 % of the time Jaedong wins and their chances go up to ~ 48.01 %. ~ 33.11 % of the time Jaedong loses and their chances go down to ~ 30.55 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Socke is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 34.7 % of the time Socke wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 65.3 % of the time Socke loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Stephano, HasuObs, Bunny, Armani in Ho…] +HomeStory Cup 9 - Stephano is at ~ 0.42 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.41 % of the time Stephano wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.59 %. ~ 52.59 % of the time Stephano loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.28 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HasuObs is at ~ 0.03 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 49.02 % of the time HasuObs wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.04 %. ~ 50.98 % of the time HasuObs loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bunny is at ~ 3.26 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.12 % of the time Bunny wins and their chances go up to ~ 3.92 %. ~ 43.88 % of the time Bunny loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.41 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Armani is at ~ 0.03 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.46 % of the time Armani wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.04 %. ~ 52.54 % of the time Armani loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.02 %.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [TaeJa, Scarlett, roof, Patience in Hom…] +HomeStory Cup 9 - TaeJa is at ~ 62.64 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 66.84 % of the time TaeJa wins and their chances go up to ~ 67.42 %. ~ 33.16 % of the time TaeJa loses and their chances go down to ~ 52.99 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Scarlett is at ~ 0.27 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 47.34 % of the time Scarlett wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.38 %. ~ 52.66 % of the time Scarlett loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.17 %. ------------------------------------------------- - roof is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 24 % of the time roof wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 76 % of the time roof loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Patience is at ~ 7.57 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 61.82 % of the time Patience wins and their chances go up to ~ 8.92 %. ~ 38.18 % of the time Patience loses and their chances go down to ~ 5.39 %.
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--------UPDATE Sunday, Jun 08 11:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) HomeStory Cup 9 review!
TaeJa finally puts the first Terran icon on the graphs!
Here's the current top 25 by chances for qualifying to Blizzcon
+ Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +#1 MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3800#2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100#3 KT Zest is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2900#4 Yoe San is at ~ 99.89 %, Min WCS Points: 2650#5 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 97.58 %, Min WCS Points: 2300#6 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 97.01 %, Min WCS Points: 2350#7 StarTale Life is at ~ 90.43 %, Min WCS Points: 2500#8 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 86.64 %, Min WCS Points: 2300#9 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 81.07 %, Min WCS Points: 2300#10 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 70.39 %, Min WCS Points: 1800#11 Jinair sOs is at ~ 65.29 %, Min WCS Points: 2200#12 EG Jaedong is at ~ 46.11 %, Min WCS Points: 1800#13 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 40.72 %, Min WCS Points: 1750#14 Liquid Snute is at ~ 39.8 %, Min WCS Points: 1250#15 Bomber is at ~ 39.8 %, Min WCS Points: 1450#16 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 31.29 %, Min WCS Points: 900#17 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 30.66 %, Min WCS Points: 1150#18 Jinair Maru is at ~ 28.66 %, Min WCS Points: 1200#19 SKT T1 Soulkey is at ~ 27.28 %, Min WCS Points: 800#20 Acer MMA is at ~ 26.58 %, Min WCS Points: 1450#21 Galaxy Solar is at ~ 22.36 %, Min WCS Points: 875#22 Millenium VortiX is at ~ 21.26 %, Min WCS Points: 800#23 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 18.91 %, Min WCS Points: 1300#24 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 15.71 %, Min WCS Points: 1175#25 Wayi Check is at ~ 14.21 %, Min WCS Points: 700
We now have 7 players with over 90% chances! MC, HyuN, Zest, San, Polt, TaeJa, and Life!
And then over 50% we have jjakji, CJ herO, StarDust, and sOs! Finishing off the current top 16 in chances we have Jaedong, soO, Snute, Bomber, and ForGG.
MC is at a monstrous minimum WCS Points of 3,800, mode of 4,750, and a median of 4,875! MC has been over 99.99% since April 13th!
Here are the biggest winners and losers since Friday, Jun 06 1:19pm GMT (GMT+00:00)
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] + TaeJa went up by ~ 33.97 %, going from ~ 63.04 % to ~ 97.01 % Jaedong went up by ~ 3.32 %, going from ~ 42.79 % to ~ 46.11 % jjakji went up by ~ 1.18 %, going from ~ 85.45 % to ~ 86.64 % Dayshi went up by ~ 1.04 %, going from ~ 1.02 % to ~ 2.07 % Scarlett went up by ~ 0.64 %, going from ~ 0.25 % to ~ 0.89 % herO went up by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 80.56 % to ~ 81.07 %
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] + Snute went down by ~ 15.42 %, going from ~ 55.22 % to ~ 39.8 % MMA went down by ~ 7.39 %, going from ~ 33.96 % to ~ 26.58 % Patience went down by ~ 2.95 %, going from ~ 7.71 % to ~ 4.76 % TLO went down by ~ 2.14 %, going from ~ 3.57 % to ~ 1.43 % ToD went down by ~ 1.39 %, going from ~ 4.27 % to ~ 2.88 % INnoVation went down by ~ 1.2 %, going from ~ 13.37 % to ~ 12.17 % YoDa went down by ~ 1.17 %, going from ~ 5.88 % to ~ 4.71 % soO went down by ~ 1.1 %, going from ~ 41.83 % to ~ 40.72 % Solar went down by ~ 1.08 %, going from ~ 23.44 % to ~ 22.36 % Bunny went down by ~ 0.96 %, going from ~ 3.33 % to ~ 2.36 % HerO went down by ~ 0.92 %, going from ~ 6.61 % to ~ 5.69 % Arthur went down by ~ 0.69 %, going from ~ 8.77 % to ~ 8.08 % Stork went down by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 1.03 % to ~ 0.52 % Classic went down by ~ 0.5 %, going from ~ 31.16 % to ~ 30.66 %
Team Liquid is catching up to mYinsanity for the #1 team spot, with Liquid's ~ 9.38% vs mYinsanity's ~ 9.82%. On Friday, Jun 06 1:19pm GMT (GMT+00:00) it was ~ 9.75% for mYinsanity and ~ 8.49% for Team Liquid.
Terran with ~ 28.53% is catching up to Zerg's ~ 28.73%, while Protoss still holds a strong lead at ~ 42.74%. On Friday, Jun 06 1:19pm GMT (GMT+00:00) it was at ~ 26.95% T, ~ 29.76% Z, and ~ 43.28% P.
Make sure to check out the upcoming matches section on the website, I see lots of red and pink upcoming matches! Here is the next one, WCS EU Ro16 Group A, with BOTH top foreign hopes Snute and Vortix, along with Harstem and ForGG!
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [ForGG, VortiX, Snute, Harstem in WCS E…] +WCS EU S2 Premier - ForGG is at ~ 31.29 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.5 % of the time ForGG wins and their chances go up to ~ 44.29 %. ~ 43.5 % of the time ForGG loses and their chances go down to ~ 14.42 %. ------------------------------------------------- - VortiX is at ~ 21.26 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 57.53 % of the time VortiX wins and their chances go up to ~ 31.16 %. ~ 42.47 % of the time VortiX loses and their chances go down to ~ 7.85 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Snute is at ~ 39.8 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 55.02 % of the time Snute wins and their chances go up to ~ 55.93 %. ~ 44.98 % of the time Snute loses and their chances go down to ~ 20.08 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Harstem is at ~ 2.89 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 30.96 % of the time Harstem wins and their chances go up to ~ 7.91 %. ~ 69.04 % of the time Harstem loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.65 %.
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http://sc2.4ever.tv
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The upcoming group in WCS EU is, for me at least, the most interesting. Isn't it weird that there is no information about WCS EU Ro16 on this web page? I was expecting to see a live thread and preview and everything, but it isn't even listed as an upcoming event... is it really today? 
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On June 09 2014 21:32 BaneRiders wrote:The upcoming group in WCS EU is, for me at least, the most interesting. Isn't it weird that there is no information about WCS EU Ro16 on this web page? I was expecting to see a live thread and preview and everything, but it isn't even listed as an upcoming event... is it really today?
It's weird. This group was supposed to be the group C but now it's group A. There has never been any public announcement about that, I discovered it two days ago while browsing Liquipedia.
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On June 09 2014 21:47 Boucot wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2014 21:32 BaneRiders wrote:The upcoming group in WCS EU is, for me at least, the most interesting. Isn't it weird that there is no information about WCS EU Ro16 on this web page? I was expecting to see a live thread and preview and everything, but it isn't even listed as an upcoming event... is it really today? It's weird. This group was supposed to be the group C but now it's group A. There has never been any public announcement about that, I discovered it two days ago while browsing Liquipedia.
Yea I didn't notice that before either, weird. I guess they moved them around because of Dreamhack?
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On June 10 2014 00:32 Die4Ever wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2014 21:47 Boucot wrote:On June 09 2014 21:32 BaneRiders wrote:The upcoming group in WCS EU is, for me at least, the most interesting. Isn't it weird that there is no information about WCS EU Ro16 on this web page? I was expecting to see a live thread and preview and everything, but it isn't even listed as an upcoming event... is it really today? It's weird. This group was supposed to be the group C but now it's group A. There has never been any public announcement about that, I discovered it two days ago while browsing Liquipedia. Yea I didn't notice that before either, weird. I guess they moved them around because of Dreamhack?
Well, we are live now, no matter what.
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--------UPDATE Thursday, Jun 12 3:30am GMT (GMT+00:00) DreamHack Summer Group Stage 2 Previews!
Here's the current Top 25 by chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Top 25 By Chances] +#1 MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3900#2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100#3 KT Zest is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 2900#4 Yoe San is at ~ 99.88 %, Min WCS Points: 2650#5 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 97.44 %, Min WCS Points: 2350#6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 97.36 %, Min WCS Points: 2300#7 StarTale Life is at ~ 89.87 %, Min WCS Points: 2500#8 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 86.61 %, Min WCS Points: 2300#9 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 80.5 %, Min WCS Points: 2300#10 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 69.83 %, Min WCS Points: 1800#11 Jinair sOs is at ~ 64.73 %, Min WCS Points: 2200#12 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 47.13 %, Min WCS Points: 1400#13 EG Jaedong is at ~ 45.39 %, Min WCS Points: 1800#14 Jinair Maru is at ~ 43.07 %, Min WCS Points: 1450#15 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 39.77 %, Min WCS Points: 1750#16 Bomber is at ~ 38.17 %, Min WCS Points: 1450#17 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 36.82 %, Min WCS Points: 1000#18 Liquid Snute is at ~ 29.33 %, Min WCS Points: 1250#19 Acer MMA is at ~ 27.44 %, Min WCS Points: 1450#20 Millenium VortiX is at ~ 26.29 %, Min WCS Points: 900#21 Galaxy Solar is at ~ 21.55 %, Min WCS Points: 875#22 First is at ~ 19.42 %, Min WCS Points: 400#23 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 17.61 %, Min WCS Points: 1300#24 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 15.23 %, Min WCS Points: 1175#25 Wayi Check is at ~ 14.76 %, Min WCS Points: 700
Here are the DreamHack Summer Group Stage 2 previews. These previews only show the stats for the 2 players set in their group, but they are counting the players from group stage 1 too.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Scarlett, Harstem in DreamHack Summer] +DreamHack Summer - Scarlett is at ~ 0.97 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 80.03 % of the time Scarlett wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.07 %. ~ 19.97 % of the time Scarlett loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.59 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Harstem is at ~ 1.63 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 71.73 % of the time Harstem wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.74 %. ~ 28.27 % of the time Harstem loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.36 %.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [HyuN, HuK in DreamHack Summer] +DreamHack Summer - HyuN is at ~ 99.99 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 88.72 % of the time HyuN wins and their chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 11.28 % of the time HyuN loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.99 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HuK is at ~ 1.45 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 70.02 % of the time HuK wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.55 %. ~ 29.98 % of the time HuK loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.21 %.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [First, FireCake in DreamHack Summer] +DreamHack Summer - First is at ~ 19.42 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 85.66 % of the time First wins and their chances go up to ~ 19.85 %. ~ 14.34 % of the time First loses and their chances go down to ~ 16.9 %. ------------------------------------------------- - FireCake is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 48.73 % of the time FireCake wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 51.27 % of the time FireCake loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [MC, Oz in DreamHack Summer] +DreamHack Summer - MC is at ~ 100 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 84.13 % of the time MC wins and their chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 15.87 % of the time MC loses and their chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Oz is at ~ 17.61 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.44 % of the time Oz wins and their chances go up to ~ 18.84 %. ~ 27.56 % of the time Oz loses and their chances go down to ~ 14.38 %.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [ForGG, TLO in DreamHack Summer] +DreamHack Summer - ForGG is at ~ 36.82 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 85.91 % of the time ForGG wins and their chances go up to ~ 37.73 %. ~ 14.09 % of the time ForGG loses and their chances go down to ~ 31.31 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TLO is at ~ 1.42 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 71.41 % of the time TLO wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.53 %. ~ 28.59 % of the time TLO loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.14 %.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Patience, Zanster in DreamHack Summer] +DreamHack Summer - Patience is at ~ 4.68 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 82.46 % of the time Patience wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.85 %. ~ 17.54 % of the time Patience loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.88 %. ------------------------------------------------- -  Zanster is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 66.03 % of the time Zanster wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 33.97 % of the time Zanster loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Snute, uThermal in DreamHack Summer] +DreamHack Summer - Snute is at ~ 29.33 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 84.99 % of the time Snute wins and their chances go up to ~ 30.39 %. ~ 15.01 % of the time Snute loses and their chances go down to ~ 23.33 %. ------------------------------------------------- - uThermal is at ~ 0.19 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 69.96 % of the time uThermal wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.21 %. ~ 30.04 % of the time uThermal loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.13 %.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [San, Balloon in DreamHack Summer] +DreamHack Summer - San is at ~ 99.88 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 89.43 % of the time San wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.9 %. ~ 10.57 % of the time San loses and their chances go down to ~ 99.7 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Balloon is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 58.18 % of the time Balloon wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 41.82 % of the time Balloon loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [TaeJa, Socke in DreamHack Summer] +DreamHack Summer - TaeJa is at ~ 97.44 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 88.04 % of the time TaeJa wins and their chances go up to ~ 97.76 %. ~ 11.96 % of the time TaeJa loses and their chances go down to ~ 95.13 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Socke is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 61.22 % of the time Socke wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 38.78 % of the time Socke loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Tefel, Bunny in DreamHack Summer] +DreamHack Summer - Tefel is at ~ 0.21 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 69.9 % of the time Tefel wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.25 %. ~ 30.1 % of the time Tefel loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.14 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Bunny is at ~ 2.5 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 80.74 % of the time Bunny wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.6 %. ~ 19.26 % of the time Bunny loses and their chances go down to ~ 2.08 %.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [StarDust, Serral in DreamHack Summer] +DreamHack Summer - StarDust is at ~ 69.83 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 85.46 % of the time StarDust wins and their chances go up to ~ 71.48 %. ~ 14.54 % of the time StarDust loses and their chances go down to ~ 60.1 %. ------------------------------------------------- -  Serral is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 67.57 % of the time Serral wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 32.43 % of the time Serral loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [MMA, ShoWTimE in DreamHack Summer] +DreamHack Summer - MMA is at ~ 27.44 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 86.94 % of the time MMA wins and their chances go up to ~ 28.73 %. ~ 13.06 % of the time MMA loses and their chances go down to ~ 18.84 %. ------------------------------------------------- - ShoWTimE is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 70.39 % of the time ShoWTimE wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 29.61 % of the time ShoWTimE loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [jjakji, DeMusliM in DreamHack Summer] +DreamHack Summer - jjakji is at ~ 86.61 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 89.01 % of the time jjakji wins and their chances go up to ~ 87.94 %. ~ 10.99 % of the time jjakji loses and their chances go down to ~ 75.83 %. ------------------------------------------------- - DeMusliM is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.95 % of the time DeMusliM wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 43.05 % of the time DeMusliM loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Jaedong, Golden in DreamHack Summer] +DreamHack Summer - Jaedong is at ~ 45.39 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 85.98 % of the time Jaedong wins and their chances go up to ~ 47.2 %. ~ 14.02 % of the time Jaedong loses and their chances go down to ~ 34.27 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Golden is at ~ 4.2 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.95 % of the time Golden wins and their chances go up to ~ 4.42 %. ~ 27.05 % of the time Golden loses and their chances go down to ~ 3.61 %.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [YoDa, Dayshi in DreamHack Summer] +DreamHack Summer - YoDa is at ~ 2.34 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 76.98 % of the time YoDa wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.45 %. ~ 23.02 % of the time YoDa loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.96 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Dayshi is at ~ 1.91 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 75.18 % of the time Dayshi wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.05 %. ~ 24.82 % of the time Dayshi loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.49 %.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [HerO, MaNa in DreamHack Summer] +DreamHack Summer - HerO is at ~ 5.46 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 76.75 % of the time HerO wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.89 %. ~ 23.25 % of the time HerO loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.03 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MaNa is at ~ 4.82 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 72.75 % of the time MaNa wins and their chances go up to ~ 5.02 %. ~ 27.25 % of the time MaNa loses and their chances go down to ~ 4.29 %.
And here are the chances to win DreamHack Summer.
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Chances] +DreamHack Summer HyuN has a ~ 8.58 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % San has a ~ 8.19 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 99.88 % to ~ 100 % MMA has a ~ 6.95 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 27.44 % to ~ 63.12 % jjakji has a ~ 6.77 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 86.61 % to ~ 99.99 % ForGG has a ~ 6.65 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 36.82 % to ~ 60.1 % TaeJa has a ~ 6.47 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 97.44 % to ~ 100 % MC has a ~ 5.82 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % StarDust has a ~ 5.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 69.83 % to ~ 98.29 % Snute has a ~ 4.94 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 29.33 % to ~ 60.42 % Jaedong has a ~ 4.9 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 45.39 % to ~ 93.43 % First has a ~ 4.48 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 19.42 % to ~ 30.02 % Patience has a ~ 3.79 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.68 % to ~ 11.42 % Scarlett has a ~ 2.54 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.97 % to ~ 5.72 % Bunny has a ~ 2.27 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.5 % to ~ 7.74 % HerO has a ~ 2.17 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.46 % to ~ 24.12 % Golden has a ~ 1.73 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.2 % to ~ 9.39 % YoDa has a ~ 1.62 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.34 % to ~ 5.48 % Dayshi has a ~ 1.5 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.91 % to ~ 10.1 % Oz has a ~ 1.4 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 17.61 % to ~ 56.38 % HuK has a ~ 1.36 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.45 % to ~ 5.1 % Harstem has a ~ 1.29 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.63 % to ~ 3.99 % MaNa has a ~ 1.28 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.82 % to ~ 11.14 % ShoWTimE has a ~ 1.19 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.11 % TLO has a ~ 1.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.42 % to ~ 8.03 % uThermal has a ~ 0.91 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.19 % to ~ 0.77 % Tefel has a ~ 0.87 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.21 % to ~ 0.99 % Serral has a ~ 0.68 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.05 % Zanster has a ~ 0.49 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.06 % Socke has a ~ 0.43 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.03 %
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http://sc2.4ever.tv
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--------UPDATE Tuesday, Jun 17 5:50pm GMT (GMT+00:00) DreamHack Summer in Review!
Here's the current Top 25 by chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +#1 MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4350#2 Yoe San is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3325#3 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3225#4 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100#5 KT Zest is at ~ 99.9 %, Min WCS Points: 2900#6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 95.86 %, Min WCS Points: 2300#7 StarTale Life is at ~ 91.02 %, Min WCS Points: 2500#8 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 81.91 %, Min WCS Points: 2425#9 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 75.32 %, Min WCS Points: 2300#10 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 74.24 %, Min WCS Points: 2100#11 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 70.57 %, Min WCS Points: 2000#12 EG Jaedong is at ~ 67.39 %, Min WCS Points: 2175#13 Jinair sOs is at ~ 57.33 %, Min WCS Points: 2200#14 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 50.52 %, Min WCS Points: 1400#15 Bomber is at ~ 40.88 %, Min WCS Points: 1450#16 Jinair Maru is at ~ 40.72 %, Min WCS Points: 1450#17 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 40.57 %, Min WCS Points: 1325#18 Millenium VortiX is at ~ 27.5 %, Min WCS Points: 1100#19 First is at ~ 21.99 %, Min WCS Points: 850#20 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 19.79 %, Min WCS Points: 1425#21 Liquid HerO is at ~ 16.41 %, Min WCS Points: 1675#22 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 15.86 %, Min WCS Points: 1175#23 Acer MMA is at ~ 15.12 %, Min WCS Points: 1450#24 NrS Welmu is at ~ 13.39 %, Min WCS Points: 1350#25 Jinair TRUE is at ~ 13.06 %, Min WCS Points: 1000
Here are the biggest winners and losers from the completion of DreamHack
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] + Jaedong went up by ~ 14.99 %, going from ~ 43.28 % to ~ 58.28 % HerO went up by ~ 7.83 %, going from ~ 5.11 % to ~ 12.94 % Oz went up by ~ 4.43 %, going from ~ 16.56 % to ~ 20.99 % First went up by ~ 4.14 %, going from ~ 18.43 % to ~ 22.57 % TaeJa went up by ~ 3.05 %, going from ~ 96.95 % to ~ 99.99 % soO went up by ~ 2.06 %, going from ~ 70.18 % to ~ 72.24 % Patience went up by ~ 0.97 %, going from ~ 4.53 % to ~ 5.5 % MaNa went up by ~ 0.71 %, going from ~ 0.86 % to ~ 1.57 %
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] + StarDust went down by ~ 12.49 %, going from ~ 80.65 % to ~ 68.16 % MMA went down by ~ 9.78 %, going from ~ 26.03 % to ~ 16.25 % Snute went down by ~ 5.76 %, going from ~ 16.03 % to ~ 10.27 % sOs went down by ~ 1.69 %, going from ~ 62.16 % to ~ 60.48 % Golden went down by ~ 1.55 %, going from ~ 7.99 % to ~ 6.44 % ForGG went down by ~ 1.23 %, going from ~ 42.97 % to ~ 41.74 % Maru went down by ~ 0.94 %, going from ~ 42.77 % to ~ 41.83 % Dayshi went down by ~ 0.66 %, going from ~ 1.82 % to ~ 1.16 %
Also I set the confirmed MLG open bracket players, here are the biggest winners and losers from that. (I have not yet programmed in the full format so the previews will come later.)
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Winners] + Jaedong went up by ~ 9.12 %, going from ~ 58.28 % to ~ 67.39 % StarDust went up by ~ 6.09 %, going from ~ 68.16 % to ~ 74.24 % Bomber went up by ~ 4.58 %, going from ~ 36.3 % to ~ 40.88 % HerO went up by ~ 3.47 %, going from ~ 12.94 % to ~ 16.41 % Life went up by ~ 2.99 %, going from ~ 88.03 % to ~ 91.02 % Alicia went up by ~ 1.67 %, going from ~ 14.19 % to ~ 15.86 % Revival went up by ~ 0.89 %, going from ~ 8.58 % to ~ 9.48 %
+ Show Spoiler [Biggest Losers] + sOs went down by ~ 3.14 %, going from ~ 60.48 % to ~ 57.33 % jjakji went down by ~ 3.1 %, going from ~ 85.01 % to ~ 81.91 % herO went down by ~ 2.69 %, going from ~ 78.01 % to ~ 75.32 % soO went down by ~ 1.67 %, going from ~ 72.24 % to ~ 70.57 % Polt went down by ~ 1.3 %, going from ~ 97.16 % to ~ 95.86 % Oz went down by ~ 1.21 %, going from ~ 20.99 % to ~ 19.79 % ForGG went down by ~ 1.18 %, going from ~ 41.74 % to ~ 40.57 % MMA went down by ~ 1.13 %, going from ~ 16.25 % to ~ 15.12 % Maru went down by ~ 1.11 %, going from ~ 41.83 % to ~ 40.72 % MajOr went down by ~ 0.97 %, going from ~ 13.63 % to ~ 12.66 % Classic went down by ~ 0.85 %, going from ~ 51.37 % to ~ 50.52 % Rain went down by ~ 0.76 %, going from ~ 11.42 % to ~ 10.66 % viOLet went down by ~ 0.71 %, going from ~ 9.2 % to ~ 8.49 % Welmu went down by ~ 0.7 %, going from ~ 14.09 % to ~ 13.39 % Check went down by ~ 0.68 %, going from ~ 13.59 % to ~ 12.91 % VortiX went down by ~ 0.67 %, going from ~ 28.18 % to ~ 27.5 % PartinG went down by ~ 0.58 %, going from ~ 12.85 % to ~ 12.26 % Snute went down by ~ 0.58 %, going from ~ 10.27 % to ~ 9.69 % First went down by ~ 0.57 %, going from ~ 22.57 % to ~ 21.99 % TRUE went down by ~ 0.56 %, going from ~ 13.62 % to ~ 13.06 %
Here are the previews for the GSL Semifinals!
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Maru, Classic in GSL S2 Code S] +GSL S2 Code S- Maru is at ~ 40.72 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 43.57 % of the time Maru wins and their chances go up to ~ 74.76 %. ~ 56.43 % of the time Maru loses and their chances go down to ~ 14.43 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Classic is at ~ 50.52 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 56.43 % of the time Classic wins and their chances go up to ~ 80.9 %. ~ 43.57 % of the time Classic loses and their chances go down to ~ 11.18 %.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [soO, TRUE in GSL S2 Code S] +GSL S2 Code S soO has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - soO is at ~ 70.57 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 62.13 % of the time soO wins and their chances go up to ~ 94.27 %. ~ 37.87 % of the time soO loses and their chances go down to ~ 31.68 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TRUE is at ~ 13.06 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.87 % of the time TRUE wins and their chances go up to ~ 32.79 %. ~ 62.13 % of the time TRUE loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.03 %.
Also I added tournament pages! You can now click on a tournament name to see the players who have at least a small chance of winning the tournament, upcoming matches for the tournament, the winning chances, and also who would gain the most from winning the tournament. Here are a few example pages.
MLG Anaheim http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=43
GSL S2 Code S http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=13
GSL S3 Code S http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=20
WCS AM S2 Premier http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=15
I hope to improve the tournament pages more in the future, along with the pages for races, countries, teams, and favorite players.
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http://sc2.4ever.tv
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Wow looks like the outcomes of GSL SF's have an enormous impact on the chances! Some additional flavor to watch
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On June 18 2014 02:59 McRatyn wrote:Wow looks like the outcomes of GSL SF's have an enormous impact on the chances! Some additional flavor to watch
2000 WCS points for 1st place is huge, we still only have 13 players with 2000 or more points. 2nd place gets 1000 points, only 31 players have 1000 or more points.
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I checked how it works and i understood a little bit (not a mathematician). It predicts individual game result chances and add em to simulate the tournament chances and WCS points that each player are expected to get right?
Looks good
But isn't the system weaker for current form prediction and players with inconsistent skill (players with fast improvement or in a slump)? Just want to know if its better for long term predictions than for short term ones (what i understood).
Because there is also those ELO ratings around and they are very different from the aligulac ones. ELO is of course terrible mixing kespa players with the ones in the foreign scene, but they seen to be ok if you sepparate those two groups.
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On June 20 2014 19:47 Superbanana wrote:I checked how it works and i understood a little bit (not a mathematician). It predicts individual game result chances and add em to simulate the tournament chances and WCS points that each player are expected to get right? Looks good But isn't the system weaker for current form prediction and players with inconsistent skill (players with fast improvement or in a slump)? Just want to know if its better for long term predictions than for short term ones (what i understood). Because there is also those ELO ratings around and they are very different. ELO is of course terrible mixing kespa players with the ones in the foreign scene, but they seen to be ok if you sepparate those two groups.
You're correct in how it basically works, it simulates each tournament and qualifier and adds up the WCS points then sees who the top 16 is for each simulation. It also counts up players' chances when different things happen, for example if you look at the Upcoming Matches section, the Possible Tournament Winners section, or if you go to a player's page and look at their events table at the bottom of the page, for example Jaedong's page http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=73
It doesn't use Elo though, it uses Aligulac ratings, which are similar. Aligulac is a great player rating system and player database, check it out http://aligulac.com/
Aligulac isn't really made for long term predictions, although I make the predictions slightly closer to 50/50 chances for each match to be more conservative, which helps with long term predictions.
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On June 20 2014 20:05 Die4Ever wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2014 19:47 Superbanana wrote:I checked how it works and i understood a little bit (not a mathematician). It predicts individual game result chances and add em to simulate the tournament chances and WCS points that each player are expected to get right? Looks good But isn't the system weaker for current form prediction and players with inconsistent skill (players with fast improvement or in a slump)? Just want to know if its better for long term predictions than for short term ones (what i understood). Because there is also those ELO ratings around and they are very different. ELO is of course terrible mixing kespa players with the ones in the foreign scene, but they seen to be ok if you sepparate those two groups. You're correct in how it basically works, it simulates each tournament and qualifier and adds up the WCS points then sees who the top 16 is for each simulation. It also counts up players' chances when different things happen, for example if you look at the Upcoming Matches section, the Possible Tournament Winners section, or if you go to a player's page and look at their events table at the bottom of the page, for example Jaedong's page http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=73It doesn't use Elo though, it uses Aligulac ratings, which are similar. Aligulac is a great player rating system and player database, check it out http://aligulac.com/Aligulac isn't really made for long term predictions, although I make the predictions slightly closer to 50/50 chances for each match to be more conservative, which helps with long term predictions.
Thank you.
Found the link explaining the Glicko system, still have to read that, but since its supposed to be an ELO improvement it makes all your work with the aligulac rating and WCS predictor even more fascinating.
I know the ELO system because im a chess fan.
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Previews for MLG Anaheim
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Polt, Scarlett, Trap, Illusion, puCK,…] +MLG Anaheim- Polt is at ~ 97.79 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 51.11 % of the time Polt wins and their chances go up to ~ 99.37 %. ~ 48.89 % of the time Polt loses and their chances go down to ~ 96.14 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Scarlett is at ~ 1.68 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 40.34 % of the time Scarlett wins and their chances go up to ~ 2.37 %. ~ 59.66 % of the time Scarlett loses and their chances go down to ~ 1.21 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Trap is at ~ 0.99 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 19.87 % of the time Trap wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.55 %. ~ 80.13 % of the time Trap loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.86 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Illusion is at ~ 0.1 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 4.65 % of the time Illusion wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.24 %. ~ 95.35 % of the time Illusion loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.09 %. ------------------------------------------------- - puCK is at ~ 0.98 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 11.46 % of the time puCK wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.37 %. ~ 88.54 % of the time puCK loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.93 %. ------------------------------------------------- -  Petraeus is at ~ 0.03 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 20.4 % of the time Petraeus wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.05 %. ~ 79.6 % of the time Petraeus loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.02 %.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [viOLet, TLO, HuK, MajOr, Miniraser, he…] +MLG Anaheim- viOLet is at ~ 8.67 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 30.19 % of the time viOLet wins and their chances go up to ~ 10.39 %. ~ 69.81 % of the time viOLet loses and their chances go down to ~ 7.93 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TLO is at ~ 0.92 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 19.59 % of the time TLO wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.34 %. ~ 80.41 % of the time TLO loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.81 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HuK is at ~ 0.64 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 12.79 % of the time HuK wins and their chances go up to ~ 1.01 %. ~ 87.21 % of the time HuK loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.58 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MajOr is at ~ 12.65 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 37.01 % of the time MajOr wins and their chances go up to ~ 14.99 %. ~ 62.99 % of the time MajOr loses and their chances go down to ~ 11.28 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Miniraser is at ~ 0.01 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 3.77 % of the time Miniraser wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 96.23 % of the time Miniraser loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - hendralisk is at ~ 0.28 % chances for top 16 points of 2014 ~ 19.77 % of the time hendralisk wins and their chances go up to ~ 0.59 %. ~ 80.23 % of the time hendralisk loses and their chances go down to ~ 0.21 %.
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Chances] +MLG Anaheim Polt has a ~ 15.41 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 97.79 % to ~ 99.99 % Scarlett has a ~ 12.4 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.68 % to ~ 4.24 % HyuN has a ~ 9.55 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 100 % to ~ 100 % MajOr has a ~ 7.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 12.65 % to ~ 22.13 % viOLet has a ~ 5.79 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 8.67 % to ~ 14.53 % Life has a ~ 5.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 89.54 % to ~ 100 % Trap has a ~ 4.84 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 2.26 % Petraeus has a ~ 4.61 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.03 % to ~ 0.14 % Jaedong has a ~ 4.6 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 64.27 % to ~ 99.82 % StarDust has a ~ 3.67 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 71.72 % to ~ 99.66 % hendralisk has a ~ 3.17 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.28 % to ~ 1.14 % TLO has a ~ 3.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.92 % to ~ 2.8 % Bomber has a ~ 2.4 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 39.07 % to ~ 78.51 % puCK has a ~ 2.35 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.98 % to ~ 2.15 % Leenock has a ~ 1.91 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.13 % to ~ 3.41 % HuK has a ~ 1.83 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.64 % to ~ 1.58 % RagnaroK has a ~ 1.49 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.35 % to ~ 1.9 % HerO has a ~ 1.16 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.67 % to ~ 66.86 % DongRaeGu has a ~ 1.14 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.59 % to ~ 2.25 % Alicia has a ~ 0.72 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 14.5 % to ~ 43.87 % Heart has a ~ 0.61 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.78 % to ~ 17.68 % Revival has a ~ 0.51 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 8.98 % to ~ 29.23 % Illusion has a ~ 0.49 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 0.45 % Apocalypse has a ~ 0.31 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.26 % Harstem has a ~ 0.3 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.51 % to ~ 1.91 % INnoVation has a ~ 0.21 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 12.17 % to ~ 31.72 % herO has a ~ 0.21 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 74.83 % to ~ 99.98 % sOs has a ~ 0.17 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 56.98 % to ~ 99.79 % MMA has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 15.03 % to ~ 53.7 % jjakji has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 81.43 % to ~ 100 % PartinG has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 11.97 % to ~ 33.56 % Rain has a ~ 0.11 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 10.54 % to ~ 42.43 % Soulkey has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 8.45 % to ~ 21.54 % Classic has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 78.32 % to ~ 99.28 % Snute has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 9.53 % to ~ 37.83 % Maru has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 13.84 % to ~ 54.57 % Dear has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 2.82 % to ~ 22.86 % Patience has a ~ 0.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 5.02 % to ~ 20.33 % Solar has a ~ 0.06 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 4.84 % to ~ 14.01 % soO has a ~ 0.05 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 93.98 % to ~ 100 % Happy has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.52 % to ~ 5.98 % Golden has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 7.6 % to ~ 16.38 % Hydra has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.39 % to ~ 2.12 % Bunny has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.85 % to ~ 5.76 % Dark has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.29 % to ~ 2.59 % Arthur has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 6.61 % to ~ 12.83 % Oz has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 19.55 % to ~ 66.08 % Dayshi has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 1.1 % to ~ 8.62 % Stephano has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.21 % to ~ 1.53 % Top has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.14 % to ~ 1.6 % LiveZerg has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their chances from ~ 0.26 % to ~ 2.74 %
WCS Predictor page for MLG Anaheim http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=43
http://sc2.4ever.tv/
I'm thinking of changing the text for upcoming matches since it seems to be confusing for some people. Maybe something like this?
-Polt has a ~ 97.79 % chance to qualify for Blizzcon
~ 51.11 % of the time Polt wins this match and their chances go up to ~ 99.37 %.
~ 48.89 % of the time Polt loses this match and their chances go down to ~ 96.14 %.
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Yes, i think its better this way
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On June 20 2014 20:37 Superbanana wrote:Yes, i think its better this way
Thanks. I fixed up the wording on the website and for the posts, is this better?
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Polt, Scarlett, Trap, Illusion, puCK,…] +MLG Anaheim- Polt is at ~ 97.78 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.14 % of the time Polt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.36 %. ~ 48.86 % of the time Polt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 96.12 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Scarlett is at ~ 1.67 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 40.33 % of the time Scarlett wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 2.38 %. ~ 59.67 % of the time Scarlett loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.2 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Trap is at ~ 0.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 19.85 % of the time Trap wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.55 %. ~ 80.15 % of the time Trap loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.86 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Illusion is at ~ 0.1 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 4.62 % of the time Illusion wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.24 %. ~ 95.38 % of the time Illusion loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.09 %. ------------------------------------------------- - puCK is at ~ 0.98 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 11.46 % of the time puCK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.39 %. ~ 88.54 % of the time puCK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.92 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Petraeus is at ~ 0.02 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 20.41 % of the time Petraeus wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.06 %. ~ 79.59 % of the time Petraeus loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.02 %.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [viOLet, TLO, HuK, MajOr, Miniraser, he…] +MLG Anaheim- viOLet is at ~ 8.67 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 30.26 % of the time viOLet wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 10.38 %. ~ 69.74 % of the time viOLet loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 7.92 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TLO is at ~ 0.91 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 19.59 % of the time TLO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 1.29 %. ~ 80.41 % of the time TLO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.81 %. ------------------------------------------------- - HuK is at ~ 0.63 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 12.79 % of the time HuK wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.96 %. ~ 87.21 % of the time HuK loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.58 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MajOr is at ~ 12.7 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.96 % of the time MajOr wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 15.07 %. ~ 63.04 % of the time MajOr loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 11.3 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Miniraser is at ~ 0.01 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 3.79 % of the time Miniraser wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.01 %. ~ 96.21 % of the time Miniraser loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - hendralisk is at ~ 0.28 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 19.75 % of the time hendralisk wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 0.57 %. ~ 80.25 % of the time hendralisk loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.21 %.
+ Show Spoiler [Winning Chances] +MLG Anaheim Polt has a ~ 15.46 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 97.78 % to ~ 99.99 % Scarlett has a ~ 12.41 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.67 % to ~ 4.19 % HyuN has a ~ 9.53 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.99 % to ~ 100 % MajOr has a ~ 7.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.7 % to ~ 22.14 % viOLet has a ~ 5.77 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.67 % to ~ 14.58 % Life has a ~ 5.04 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 89.49 % to ~ 99.99 % Trap has a ~ 4.83 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.99 % to ~ 2.28 % Jaedong has a ~ 4.62 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 64.28 % to ~ 99.82 % Petraeus has a ~ 4.61 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.13 % StarDust has a ~ 3.67 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 71.71 % to ~ 99.63 % hendralisk has a ~ 3.17 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.28 % to ~ 1.07 % TLO has a ~ 3.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.91 % to ~ 2.77 % Bomber has a ~ 2.4 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 39.08 % to ~ 78.61 % puCK has a ~ 2.32 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.98 % to ~ 2.12 % Leenock has a ~ 1.92 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.13 % to ~ 3.41 % HuK has a ~ 1.81 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.63 % to ~ 1.51 % RagnaroK has a ~ 1.49 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.35 % to ~ 1.97 % HerO has a ~ 1.16 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 14.64 % to ~ 66.6 % DongRaeGu has a ~ 1.15 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.59 % to ~ 2.18 % Alicia has a ~ 0.71 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 14.51 % to ~ 43.74 % Heart has a ~ 0.62 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.76 % to ~ 16.94 % Revival has a ~ 0.52 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.97 % to ~ 29.1 % Illusion has a ~ 0.49 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.1 % to ~ 0.38 % Apocalypse has a ~ 0.31 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.02 % to ~ 0.16 % Harstem has a ~ 0.3 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.5 % to ~ 2.12 % herO has a ~ 0.21 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 74.87 % to ~ 99.97 % INnoVation has a ~ 0.21 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.14 % to ~ 31.2 % sOs has a ~ 0.17 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 56.99 % to ~ 99.84 % MMA has a ~ 0.15 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 15.02 % to ~ 54.74 % TooDming has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.69 % to ~ 7.65 % jjakji has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 81.45 % to ~ 100 % PartinG has a ~ 0.14 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.99 % to ~ 33.8 % Rain has a ~ 0.12 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.54 % to ~ 42.77 % Soulkey has a ~ 0.1 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.48 % to ~ 21.58 % Classic has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 78.33 % to ~ 99.15 % Snute has a ~ 0.09 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 9.53 % to ~ 37.2 % Maru has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.78 % to ~ 53.38 % Dear has a ~ 0.07 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.84 % to ~ 22.82 % Solar has a ~ 0.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.8 % to ~ 14.31 % Patience has a ~ 0.06 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.02 % to ~ 18.52 % soO has a ~ 0.05 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 93.99 % to ~ 100 % Bbyong has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.65 % to ~ 5.94 % MaSa has a ~ 0.03 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.53 % to ~ 3.77 % Bunny has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.86 % to ~ 5.82 % Jim has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.51 % to ~ 2.48 % Check has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.41 % to ~ 44.85 % Squirtle has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.42 % to ~ 1.79 % Arthur has a ~ 0.02 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 6.6 % to ~ 17.56 % Welmu has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.25 % to ~ 46.97 % MarineKing has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 0.01 % to ~ 0.27 % MaNa has a ~ 0.01 % chance to win. This would increase their Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.37 % to ~ 3.92 %
MLG Anaheim page http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=43&bbcode=1
http://sc2.4ever.tv/
|
--------UPDATE Monday, Jun 23 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) WCS AM Round of 16 Previews and Group of Death Analysis!
Here's the current Top 25 by chances.
+ Show Spoiler [Top 25 Chances] +#1 MC is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 4350#2 ROCCAT HyuN is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3475#3 Yoe San is at ~ 100 %, Min WCS Points: 3325#4 Liquid TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 %, Min WCS Points: 3100#5 KT Zest is at ~ 99.87 %, Min WCS Points: 2900#6 CM Storm Polt is at ~ 99.86 %, Min WCS Points: 2800#7 SKT T1 soO is at ~ 94.45 %, Min WCS Points: 2500#8 StarTale Life is at ~ 93.31 %, Min WCS Points: 2625#9 mYinsanity StarDust is at ~ 83.84 %, Min WCS Points: 2350#10 mYinsanity jjakji is at ~ 80.8 %, Min WCS Points: 2425#11 SKT T1 Classic is at ~ 76.53 %, Min WCS Points: 1900#12 CJ Entus herO is at ~ 73.71 %, Min WCS Points: 2300#13 Jinair sOs is at ~ 57.31 %, Min WCS Points: 2200#14 EG Jaedong is at ~ 53.23 %, Min WCS Points: 2175#15 Bomber is at ~ 41.22 %, Min WCS Points: 1575#16 Millenium ForGG is at ~ 39.77 %, Min WCS Points: 1325#17 Millenium VortiX is at ~ 24.55 %, Min WCS Points: 1100#18 First is at ~ 21.15 %, Min WCS Points: 850#19 Planetkey Oz is at ~ 20.1 %, Min WCS Points: 1425#20 Axiom Alicia is at ~ 15.4 %, Min WCS Points: 1175#21 Acer MMA is at ~ 14.63 %, Min WCS Points: 1450#22 viOLet is at ~ 13.91 %, Min WCS Points: 875#23 NrS Welmu is at ~ 13.34 %, Min WCS Points: 1350#24 Jinair Maru is at ~ 12.91 %, Min WCS Points: 1450#25 Wayi Check is at ~ 12.57 %, Min WCS Points: 700
Here are the WCS AM Round of 16 Previews!
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Heart, Oz, XiGua, Pigbaby in WCS AM S2…] +WCS AM S2 Premier- Heart is at ~ 6.42 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 52.77 % of the time Heart wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 10.76 %. ~ 47.23 % of the time Heart loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 1.57 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Oz is at ~ 20.1 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 56.35 % of the time Oz wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 30.45 %. ~ 43.65 % of the time Oz loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 6.73 %. ------------------------------------------------- - XiGua is at ~ 1.49 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 41.44 % of the time XiGua wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 3.22 %. ~ 58.56 % of the time XiGua loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.26 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Pigbaby is at ~ 2.41 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.44 % of the time Pigbaby wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 4.58 %. ~ 50.56 % of the time Pigbaby loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.29 %.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [HyuN, NesTea, Alicia, Revival in WCS A…] +WCS AM S2 Premier- HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 71.27 % of the time HyuN wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 28.73 % of the time HyuN loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 100 %. ------------------------------------------------- - NesTea is at ~ 1.81 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 36.94 % of the time NesTea wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 4.35 %. ~ 63.06 % of the time NesTea loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.32 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Alicia is at ~ 15.4 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 51.26 % of the time Alicia wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 25.06 %. ~ 48.74 % of the time Alicia loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 5.23 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Revival is at ~ 8.41 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 40.53 % of the time Revival wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 16.51 %. ~ 59.47 % of the time Revival loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 2.89 %.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [Bomber, Polt, TooDming, Check in WCS A…] +WCS AM S2 Premier- Bomber is at ~ 41.22 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 59.33 % of the time Bomber wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 55.76 %. ~ 40.67 % of the time Bomber loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 20.01 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Polt is at ~ 99.86 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 65.03 % of the time Polt wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.99 %. ~ 34.97 % of the time Polt loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 99.6 %. ------------------------------------------------- - TooDming is at ~ 2.48 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 33.3 % of the time TooDming wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 6.11 %. ~ 66.7 % of the time TooDming loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 0.66 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Check is at ~ 12.57 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 42.35 % of the time Check wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 23.32 %. ~ 57.65 % of the time Check loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 4.68 %.
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [TaeJa, viOLet, MajOr, Arthur in WCS AM…] +WCS AM S2 Premier- TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 70.66 % of the time TaeJa wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 29.34 % of the time TaeJa loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 99.99 %. ------------------------------------------------- - viOLet is at ~ 13.91 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 49.32 % of the time viOLet wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 22.88 %. ~ 50.68 % of the time viOLet loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 5.18 %. ------------------------------------------------- - MajOr is at ~ 9.86 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 45.95 % of the time MajOr wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 17.23 %. ~ 54.05 % of the time MajOr loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 3.59 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Arthur is at ~ 6.28 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 34.08 % of the time Arthur wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 13.67 %. ~ 65.92 % of the time Arthur loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 2.47 %.
And now let's do some analysis to see what the Group of Death is according to WCS Predictor. I did this before but I have to redo it now since the groups were redrawn.
This time we will be looking at 5 different scores instead of just the normal 3.
Champion Chances Score is the chances to win the tournament for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Score is the chances to qualify for Blizzcon for each player in the group added together.
Blizzcon Chances Lost Score is how much the Blizzcon Chances Score went down by because of the group drawing.
Affects Score is the sum of the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would gain if they won the group, plus the amount of Blizzcon chances each player would lose if they lost the group.
Aligulac Score is the overall Aligulac rating of every player in the group added together.
+ Show Spoiler [Champion Chances] +
Group A
Heart has a ~ 3.79 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier
Oz has a ~ 4.31 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier
XiGua has a ~ 1.13 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier
Pigbaby has a ~ 2.35 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier
Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 11.587
Group B
HyuN has a ~ 20.49 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier
NesTea has a ~ 1.45 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier
Alicia has a ~ 5.06 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier
Revival has a ~ 3.02 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier
Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 30.0157
Group C
Bomber has a ~ 8.85 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier
Polt has a ~ 12.95 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier
TooDming has a ~ 1.45 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier
Check has a ~ 3.52 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier
Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 26.7719
Group D
TaeJa has a ~ 18.85 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier
viOLet has a ~ 5.86 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier
MajOr has a ~ 4.27 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier
Arthur has a ~ 2.64 % chance to win WCS AM S2 Premier
Giving this match a Champion Chances Score of 31.6254
Which means the groups go in this order for the Champion Chances Scores
D > B > C > A
+ Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances] +
Group A
Heart is at ~ 6.42 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014
Oz is at ~ 20.1 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014
XiGua is at ~ 1.49 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014
Pigbaby is at ~ 2.41 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014
Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 30.4117
Group B
HyuN is at ~ 100 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014
NesTea is at ~ 1.81 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014
Alicia is at ~ 15.4 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014
Revival is at ~ 8.41 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014
Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 125.616
Group C
Bomber is at ~ 41.22 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014
Polt is at ~ 99.86 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014
TooDming is at ~ 2.48 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014
Check is at ~ 12.57 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014
Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 156.13
Group D
TaeJa is at ~ 99.99 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014
viOLet is at ~ 13.91 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014
MajOr is at ~ 9.86 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014
Arthur is at ~ 6.28 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014
Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Score of 130.049
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Scores
C > D > B > A
+ Show Spoiler [Blizzcon Chances Lost] +
Group A
Heart's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.36 %
Oz's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 2.04 %
XiGua's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.17 %
Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.28 %
Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of -2.86117
Group B
HyuN's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0 %
NesTea's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -10.0 %
Alicia's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.32 %
Revival's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -10.6 %
Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.385503
Group C
Bomber's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.24 %
Polt's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 %
TooDming's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -10.2 %
Check's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -2 %
Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 0.970449
Group D
TaeJa's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ 0.01 %
viOLet's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -10.6 %
MajOr's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -10.5 %
Arthur's Blizzcon chances changed by ~ -20.1 %
Giving this match a Blizzcon Chances Lost Score of 2.39453
Which means the groups go in this order for the Blizzcon Chances Lost Scores
D > C > B > A
+ Show Spoiler [Effects] +
Group A
When Heart wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 4.34 %
When Heart loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 4.85 %
When Oz wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 10.36 %
When Oz loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 13.37 %
When XiGua wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 1.73 %
When XiGua loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.23 %
When Pigbaby wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.17 %
When Pigbaby loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 2.12 %
Giving this match an Effects Score of 40.1758
Group B
When HyuN wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0 %
When HyuN loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0 %
When NesTea wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 2.54 %
When NesTea loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.49 %
When Alicia wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 9.67 %
When Alicia loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 10.17 %
When Revival wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 8.1 %
When Revival loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 5.52 %
Giving this match an Effects Score of 37.4876
Group C
When Bomber wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 14.54 %
When Bomber loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 21.21 %
When Polt wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.14 %
When Polt loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.26 %
When TooDming wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 3.64 %
When TooDming loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 1.81 %
When Check wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 10.75 %
When Check loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 7.9 %
Giving this match an Effects Score of 60.2409
Group D
When TaeJa wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 0.01 %
When TaeJa loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 0.01 %
When viOLet wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 8.97 %
When viOLet loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 8.73 %
When MajOr wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 7.37 %
When MajOr loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 6.27 %
When Arthur wins this match, their Blizzcon chances go up by ~ 7.38 %
When Arthur loses this match, their Blizzcon chances go down by ~ 3.82 %
Giving this match an Effects Score of 42.5468
Which means the groups go in this order for Effects Scores
C > D > A > B
+ Show Spoiler [Aligulac Ratings] +
Group A
Heart has an overall Aligulac rating of 1652
Oz has an overall Aligulac rating of 1663
XiGua has an overall Aligulac rating of 1476
Pigbaby has an overall Aligulac rating of 1566
Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6357
Group B
HyuN has an overall Aligulac rating of 2101
NesTea has an overall Aligulac rating of 1523
Alicia has an overall Aligulac rating of 1709
Revival has an overall Aligulac rating of 1656
Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 6989
Group C
Bomber has an overall Aligulac rating of 1885
Polt has an overall Aligulac rating of 1974
TooDming has an overall Aligulac rating of 1552
Check has an overall Aligulac rating of 1695
Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7106
Group D
TaeJa has an overall Aligulac rating of 2094
viOLet has an overall Aligulac rating of 1794
MajOr has an overall Aligulac rating of 1722
Arthur has an overall Aligulac rating of 1638
Giving this match an Aligulac Score of 7248
Which means the groups go in this order for Aligulac Scores
D > C > B > A
Group A has 4 4th places and a 3rd place.
Group B has 3 3rd places, 1 4th place, and 1 2nd place.
Group C has both of the other 2 1st places and 2 2nd places and also a 3rd place.
Group D has 3 1st places and 2 2nd places in these 5 rankings.
Group D is our Group of Death barely beating out Group C! Congrats to TaeJa, viOLet, MajOr, and Arthur!
What do you think?
Poll: Group of Death?Group D (3) 75% Group C (1) 25% Group A (0) 0% Group B (0) 0% 4 total votes Your vote: Group of Death? (Vote): Group A
(Vote): Group B
(Vote): Group C
(Vote): Group D
Also don't forget about the GSL Finals!
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [soO, Classic in GSL S2 Code S] +GSL S2 Code S soO has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - soO is at ~ 94.45 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.62 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 55.38 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 89.97 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Classic is at ~ 76.53 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.38 % of the time Classic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.89 %. ~ 44.62 % of the time Classic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 47.55 %.
-----------------------
http://sc2.4ever.tv
|
GSL FINALS PREVIEW!
Starts in
+ Show Spoiler [soO, Classic in GSL S2 Code S] +GSL S2 Code S soO has the #2 headband! This is a match for the #2 headband! - soO is at ~ 94.81 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 44.64 % of the time soO wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 100 %. ~ 55.36 % of the time soO loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 90.62 %. ------------------------------------------------- - Classic is at ~ 76.79 % chances to qualify for Blizzcon 2014 ~ 55.36 % of the time Classic wins this match and their Blizzcon chances go up to ~ 99.9 %. ~ 44.64 % of the time Classic loses this match and their Blizzcon chances go down to ~ 48.12 %.
+ Show Spoiler [Consequences of soO Winning] +
This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 82.03 % to ~ 84.37 %
This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 54.02 % to ~ 56.2 %
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 58.38 % to ~ 60.39 %
This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 74.57 % to ~ 76.51 %
This would change StarDust's Blizzcon chances from ~ 84.62 % to ~ 86.12 %
This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 93.94 % to ~ 95.17 %
This would change Bomber's Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.68 % to ~ 41.8 %
This would change Alicia's Blizzcon chances from ~ 28.99 % to ~ 29.78 %
This would change HerO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.02 % to ~ 12.79 %
This would change ForGG's Blizzcon chances from ~ 39.5 % to ~ 40.17 %
This would change Maru's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.11 % to ~ 13.72 %
This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 14.19 % to ~ 14.77 %
This would change Rain's Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.49 % to ~ 10.92 %
This would change Welmu's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.75 % to ~ 13.17 %
This would change Check's Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.56 % to ~ 11.98 %
This would change VortiX's Blizzcon chances from ~ 24.78 % to ~ 25.2 %
This would change First's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.56 % to ~ 21.92 %
This would change PartinG's Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.81 % to ~ 12.13 %
This would change Oz's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.16 % to ~ 5.43 %
This would change viOLet's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.78 % to ~ 13.06 %
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.62 % to ~ 8.88 %
This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.48 % to ~ 5.73 %
This would change Soulkey's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.99 % to ~ 8.24 %
This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.74 % to ~ 7.99 %
This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.51 % to ~ 10.75 %
This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.57 % to ~ 11.79 %
This would change MajOr's Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.85 % to ~ 9.03 %
This would change Dear's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.74 % to ~ 2.92 %
This would change Trap's Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.78 % to ~ 4.93 %
This would change Arthur's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.8 % to ~ 5.95 %
This would change Nerchio's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.75 % to ~ 1.89 %
This would change Mvp's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.76 % to ~ 1.89 %
This would change DongRaeGu's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.21 % to ~ 2.34 %
This would change Solar's Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.56 % to ~ 4.68 %
This would change Scarlett's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.09 % to ~ 2.2 %
This would change Patience's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.31 % to ~ 5.41 %
This would change Bbyong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.48 % to ~ 1.56 %
This would change TooDming's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.25 % to ~ 2.33 %
This would change Sen's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.56 % to ~ 1.64 %
This would change Bunny's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.86 % to ~ 1.92 %
This would change MaNa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.38 % to ~ 1.43 %
This would change ParalyzE's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.26 % to ~ 1.31 %
This would change Dayshi's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.39 % to ~ 1.43 %
This would change Polt's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.88 % to ~ 99.91 %
This would change Zest's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.89 % to ~ 99.92 %
+ Show Spoiler [Consequences of Classic Winning] +
This would change jjakji's Blizzcon chances from ~ 82.03 % to ~ 80.14 %
This would change Jaedong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 54.02 % to ~ 52.26 %
This would change sOs's Blizzcon chances from ~ 58.38 % to ~ 56.76 %
This would change herO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 74.57 % to ~ 73.01 %
This would change StarDust's Blizzcon chances from ~ 84.62 % to ~ 83.42 %
This would change Life's Blizzcon chances from ~ 93.94 % to ~ 92.94 %
This would change Bomber's Blizzcon chances from ~ 40.68 % to ~ 39.77 %
This would change Alicia's Blizzcon chances from ~ 28.99 % to ~ 28.35 %
This would change HerO's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.02 % to ~ 11.4 %
This would change ForGG's Blizzcon chances from ~ 39.5 % to ~ 38.95 %
This would change Maru's Blizzcon chances from ~ 13.11 % to ~ 12.63 %
This would change MMA's Blizzcon chances from ~ 14.19 % to ~ 13.73 %
This would change Rain's Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.49 % to ~ 10.15 %
This would change Welmu's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.75 % to ~ 12.41 %
This would change Check's Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.56 % to ~ 11.23 %
This would change VortiX's Blizzcon chances from ~ 24.78 % to ~ 24.45 %
This would change First's Blizzcon chances from ~ 21.56 % to ~ 21.27 %
This would change PartinG's Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.81 % to ~ 11.55 %
This would change Oz's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.16 % to ~ 4.94 %
This would change viOLet's Blizzcon chances from ~ 12.78 % to ~ 12.57 %
This would change Snute's Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.62 % to ~ 8.41 %
This would change Pigbaby's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.48 % to ~ 5.28 %
This would change Soulkey's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.99 % to ~ 7.78 %
This would change Golden's Blizzcon chances from ~ 7.74 % to ~ 7.55 %
This would change Heart's Blizzcon chances from ~ 10.51 % to ~ 10.33 %
This would change INnoVation's Blizzcon chances from ~ 11.57 % to ~ 11.38 %
This would change MajOr's Blizzcon chances from ~ 8.85 % to ~ 8.7 %
This would change Dear's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.74 % to ~ 2.6 %
This would change Trap's Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.78 % to ~ 4.66 %
This would change Arthur's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.8 % to ~ 5.69 %
This would change Solar's Blizzcon chances from ~ 4.56 % to ~ 4.46 %
This would change Happy's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.35 % to ~ 1.26 %
This would change Scarlett's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.09 % to ~ 2.01 %
This would change Patience's Blizzcon chances from ~ 5.31 % to ~ 5.23 %
This would change Bbyong's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.48 % to ~ 1.41 %
This would change TooDming's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.25 % to ~ 2.18 %
This would change Revival's Blizzcon chances from ~ 2.88 % to ~ 2.82 %
This would change Sen's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.56 % to ~ 1.5 %
This would change Bunny's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.86 % to ~ 1.81 %
This would change MaNa's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.38 % to ~ 1.33 %
This would change ParalyzE's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.26 % to ~ 1.21 %
This would change Dayshi's Blizzcon chances from ~ 1.39 % to ~ 1.36 %
This would change Polt's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.88 % to ~ 99.86 %
This would change Zest's Blizzcon chances from ~ 99.89 % to ~ 99.87 %
(basically no one benefits from Classic winning except for Classic)
GSL Code S page http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=tournament&tid=13
http://sc2.4ever.tv/
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WCS Predictor says the results of the GSL Finals are
+ Show Spoiler [GSL Finals results] + Classic went up by ~ 23.11 %, going from ~ 76.79 % to ~ 99.9 % soO went down by ~ 4.23 %, going from ~ 94.81 % to ~ 90.57 % jjakji went down by ~ 1.84 %, going from ~ 82.03 % to ~ 80.19 % Jaedong went down by ~ 1.8 %, going from ~ 54.02 % to ~ 52.22 % sOs went down by ~ 1.6 %, going from ~ 58.38 % to ~ 56.78 % herO went down by ~ 1.56 %, going from ~ 74.57 % to ~ 73.01 % StarDust went down by ~ 1.22 %, going from ~ 84.62 % to ~ 83.4 % Life went down by ~ 1.05 %, going from ~ 93.94 % to ~ 92.89 % Bomber went down by ~ 0.89 %, going from ~ 40.68 % to ~ 39.78 % Alicia went down by ~ 0.68 %, going from ~ 28.99 % to ~ 28.31 % HerO went down by ~ 0.64 %, going from ~ 12.02 % to ~ 11.38 % ForGG went down by ~ 0.51 %, going from ~ 39.5 % to ~ 38.98 %Also Classic now has the #2 headband.
http://sc2.4ever.tv/
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EPT
