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Griffith`
714 Posts
----Flash KT gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 0.862333% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 100% ----Flash KT gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Premier I don't understand this. There's less of a chance (0.86%) versus (1.22%) to get second place in Season 3 Finals? | ||
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NeThZOR
South Africa7387 Posts
On September 14 2013 06:26 Griffith` wrote: This happens 1.22% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 100% ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 0.862333% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 100% ----Flash KT gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Premier I don't understand this. There's less of a chance (0.86%) versus (1.22%) to get second place in Season 3 Finals? Indeed! That asserts the assumption we've all had that Flash wins more often when he's put in a finals! | ||
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synapse
China13814 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17744 Posts
On September 14 2013 06:26 Griffith` wrote: This happens 1.22% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 100% ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 0.862333% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 100% ----Flash KT gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Premier I don't understand this. There's less of a chance (0.86%) versus (1.22%) to get second place in Season 3 Finals? That's a bit far away to get an accurate reading, and those are small numbers with a small difference. It might be true though, Flash is very high rated on aligulac and the bracket might work out in such a way that he meets his toughest opponent before the finals. | ||
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Ettick
United States2434 Posts
DIMAGA 0.000333333% 1/300000, started with 1450 WCS points Dimaga will definitely qualify for Blizzcon now | ||
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KillerDucky
United States498 Posts
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slowbacontron
United States7722 Posts
Also can't wait for the implementation of matchup-specific ratings  | ||
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crow_mw
Poland115 Posts
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MaskaGodlike
Russian Federation50 Posts
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chuky500
France473 Posts
43.3423% of the time 3000 WCS points is enough to qualify 57.4237% of the time 3050 WCS points is enough to qualify 69.3907% of the time 3100 WCS points is enough to qualify 72.5907% of the time 3105 WCS points is enough to qualify 73.7887% of the time 3125 WCS points is enough to qualify So if I understand correctly, a player like Forgg (ForGG 59.298%, started with 1950 WCS points) is expected to finish at about 3050 points right ? Also a difference of only 100 points makes a player's chances jump up 25 percentage points. So you should at least grant the 75 minimum points to the ones qualified for IEM and also take into account the WCS Challenger league for Premier League players, which grants up to 100 points and minimum 25. edit: well I'm not so sure about the IEM since they add so much randomness but anyways it just means the IEM make the whole thing more random and the ones invited/qualified get a mega huge bonus to qualify. | ||
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Cyro
United Kingdom20343 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17744 Posts
This was written in C++ I will keep the old predictions Yes it does use aligulac's help and I do want it to use the matchup specific ratings soon And I plan to have it account for all WCS points including challenger leagues | ||
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KrazyTrumpet
United States2520 Posts
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sns3rsam
United States138 Posts
Thanks for your contribution it looks like it took a long time to figure this all out! | ||
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Olex
United States135 Posts
"This means that 10.1397% of the time, MMA will get 16th place in the season 3 finals. When he does get 16th place, his chances to qualify for Blizzcon are 74.7506%." and applied that same readability to the Players not still in Premier League section. I also moved some things around to quickly compare stats at a glance, and (hopefully) add clarity. So, + Show Spoiler [Players not still in Premier League] + Mvp IM 99.9747% 299924/300000, started with 3425 WCS points NaNiwa 23.8807% 71642/300000, started with 2525 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 4.84267% of the time, changing NaNiwa's chances to 33.1727% ----NaNiwa gets 8th place in IEM This happens 4.75667% of the time, changing NaNiwa's chances to 96.2498% ----NaNiwa gets 1st place in IEM This happens 4.57033% of the time, changing NaNiwa's chances to 18.0474% ----NaNiwa gets 16th place in IEM This happens 3.33933% of the time, changing NaNiwa's chances to 77.1981% ----NaNiwa gets 2nd place in IEM TLO 1.44% 4320/300000, started with 1950 WCS points Becomes: Chances of Advancing to Blizzcon + Show Spoiler [Players out of Premier League] + Mvp IM, 299924/300000, started with 3425 WCS points, 99.9747% NaNiwa, 71642/300000, started with 2525 WCS points, 23.8807% + Show Spoiler [IF game changers] + ----NaNiwa gets 1st place in IEM This happens 4.75667% of the time. When it does, it changes his chances to 96.2498%. ----NaNiwa gets 2nd place in IEM This happens 3.33933% of the time. When it does, it changes his chances to 77.1981% ---Naniwa gets 8th Place in IEM This happens 4.84267% of the time. When it does, it changes his chances to 33.1727%. ----NaNiwa gets 16th place in IEM This happens 4.57033% of the time. When it does, it changes his chances to 18.0474%. TLO 4320/300000, started with 1950 WCS points, 1.44% First IM 2075/300000, started with 2050 WCS points, 0.691667% Symbol 632/300000, started with 1750 WCS points, 0.210667% Alicia 594/300000, started with 1850 WCS points, 0.198% Stephano 239/300000, started with 2025 WCS points, 0.0796667% Ryung 83/300000, started with 1600 WCS points, 0.0276667% Grubby 75/300000, started with 1650 WCS points, 0.025% DIMAGA 1/300000, started with 1450 WCS points, 0.000333333% | ||
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TaishiCi
Korea (South)211 Posts
On September 14 2013 08:42 Die4Ever wrote: To answer some of the recent questions This was written in C++ I will keep the old predictions Yes it does use aligulac's help and I do want it to use the matchup specific ratings soon And I plan to have it account for all WCS points including challenger leagues Thanks for the clarification. Checked a few for fun. | ||
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
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Jerubaal
United States7684 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17744 Posts
On September 14 2013 09:00 Jerubaal wrote: Idk, I feel like idrA still has a really good chance. You're right he has a really good chance to make it to Blizzcon...as a commentator | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17744 Posts
On September 14 2013 08:54 Olex wrote: It goes without saying that this is amazing and clearly exhaustive (and exhausting!), thank you for your work! I humbly propose the clearest presentation I could think of. I started from your explaining sentence, "This means that 10.1397% of the time, MMA will get 16th place in the season 3 finals. When he does get 16th place, his chances to qualify for Blizzcon are 74.7506%." and applied that same readability to the Players not still in Premier League section. I also moved some things around to quickly compare stats at a glance, and (hopefully) add clarity. So, + Show Spoiler [Players not still in Premier League] + Mvp IM 99.9747% 299924/300000, started with 3425 WCS points NaNiwa 23.8807% 71642/300000, started with 2525 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 4.84267% of the time, changing NaNiwa's chances to 33.1727% ----NaNiwa gets 8th place in IEM This happens 4.75667% of the time, changing NaNiwa's chances to 96.2498% ----NaNiwa gets 1st place in IEM This happens 4.57033% of the time, changing NaNiwa's chances to 18.0474% ----NaNiwa gets 16th place in IEM This happens 3.33933% of the time, changing NaNiwa's chances to 77.1981% ----NaNiwa gets 2nd place in IEM TLO 1.44% 4320/300000, started with 1950 WCS points Becomes: Chances of Advancing to Blizzcon + Show Spoiler [Players out of Premier League] + Mvp IM, 299924/300000, started with 3425 WCS points, 99.9747% NaNiwa, 71642/300000, started with 2525 WCS points, 23.8807% + Show Spoiler [IF game changers] + ----NaNiwa gets 1st place in IEM This happens 4.75667% of the time. When it does, it changes his chances to 96.2498%. ----NaNiwa gets 2nd place in IEM This happens 3.33933% of the time. When it does, it changes his chances to 77.1981% ---Naniwa gets 8th Place in IEM This happens 4.84267% of the time. When it does, it changes his chances to 33.1727%. ----NaNiwa gets 16th place in IEM This happens 4.57033% of the time. When it does, it changes his chances to 18.0474%. TLO 4320/300000, started with 1950 WCS points, 1.44% First IM 2075/300000, started with 2050 WCS points, 0.691667% Symbol 632/300000, started with 1750 WCS points, 0.210667% Alicia 594/300000, started with 1850 WCS points, 0.198% Stephano 239/300000, started with 2025 WCS points, 0.0796667% Ryung 83/300000, started with 1600 WCS points, 0.0276667% Grubby 75/300000, started with 1650 WCS points, 0.025% DIMAGA 1/300000, started with 1450 WCS points, 0.000333333% I like it, thanks. I'll try out that format for the next run. I found it interesting though that you sort the "game changers" by how much they help the player rather than how probable they are. Also I feel like putting the event over the probabilities will make it look weird when it's multiple events in 1 game changer? | ||
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