Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 7

mprs

Canada2933 Posts

September 14 2013 00:16 GMT

#121

25.2323% of the time 2900 WCS points is enough to qualify
43.3423% of the time 3000 WCS points is enough to qualify
57.4237% of the time 3050 WCS points is enough to qualify
69.3907% of the time 3100 WCS points is enough to qualify
72.5907% of the time 3105 WCS points is enough to qualify
73.7887% of the time 3125 WCS points is enough to qualify
75.6743% of the time 3150 WCS points is enough to qualify
78.9523% of the time 3200 WCS points is enough to qualify
87.614% of the time 3300 WCS points is enough to qualify

400 Points is like winning a teir1 tournament isn't it? Quite the spread.

Olex

United States135 Posts

September 14 2013 00:22 GMT

#122

Np ^^,

I found it interesting though that you sort the "game changers" by how much they help the player rather than how probable they are.

Yeah, I chose this based on what I think is the core of the presentation, that of the probability that a player will go to Blizzcon. As I explore the document, that became the interesting statistic, though I see the logic in organizing it how you did. It's intuitive to me, but ultimately that's super-subjective. "Game changers" was the first phrase I could think of to describe the contents of the spoiler... "What-If Scenarios" maybe, or "Scenarios to Watch for"?

I feel like putting the event over the probabilities will make it look weird when it's multiple events in 1 game changer?

+ Show Spoiler [multiple events] +

----HyuN gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
This happens 6.24367% of the time. When it does, it changes HyuN's chances to 96.9413%.

----HyuN gets 2nd place in America Placement
----HyuN gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens 6.023% of the time. When it does, it changes HyuN's chances to 73.8083%.

----HyuN gets 2nd place in America Placement
----HyuN gets 8th place in America Premier
This happens 6.023% of the time. When it does, it changes HyuN's chances to 73.8083%.

----HyuN gets 2nd place in America Premier
This happens 5.27967% of the time. When it does, it changes HyuN's chances to 97.4888%.

To me it doesn't look too weird, just because my eyes are searching for the stats of my favorite players advancing. I think the clarity remains.

edit- I can't stress enough how awesome this data is! I think meaningful stats mining is seriously lacking in esports in general and especially SC2. Thank you again for taking the time to assemble all of this

chuky500

France473 Posts

September 14 2013 00:25 GMT

#123

I agree that the helping or hurting chances is confusing and should be written the other way around. I think you should also mix the hurt/help chances considering all tournament placements at once and not separate WCS from IEM and dreamhack. It's more probable that a player will rank average in each tournament rather than winning one of them and failing the other ones.

Also in my opinon it makes no sense to separate players still in Premier from the ones that dropped, because in the end both groups try to qualify for the same event. So there should be 2 group of players, the ones that are already qualified or have a chance, and the other ones with not many points. This way you could compare the chances of 2 players with the same amount of points but in different leagues.

like this :

+ Show Spoiler [Players that can still qualify] +

INnoVation 100% 300000/300000, started with 5250 WCS points

Jaedong 100% 300000/300000, started with 4325 WCS points

Bomber 100% 300000/300000, started with 4250 WCS points

Soulkey WJS 99.9997% 299999/300000, started with 3500 WCS points

Polt 99.999% 299997/300000, started with 3625 WCS points

aLive 99.9843% 299953/300000, started with 3475 WCS points

HerO Liquid 99.957% 299871/300000, started with 3400 WCS points

Mvp IM 99.9293% 299788/300000, started with 3425 WCS points

TaeJa 99.4207% 298262/300000, started with 3150 WCS points

sOs 98.8087% 296426/300000, started with 3000 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 40.1657% of the time and would change sOs's chances to 97.2519%
----sOs gets 16th place in Korea Premier

Revival 80.8357% 242507/300000, started with 2900 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 15.1423% of the time and would change Revival's chances to 85.9936%
----Revival gets 16th place in America Premier

This happens 7.443% of the time and would change Revival's chances to 87.175%
----Revival gets 16th place in IEM

This happens 1.41233% of the time and would change Revival's chances to 92.1688%
----Revival gets 16th place in IEM
----Revival gets 16th place in America Premier

ForGG 59.298% 177894/300000, started with 1950 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 22.1987% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 97.8633%
----ForGG gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 19.7197% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 100%
----ForGG gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 14.9807% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 99.2163%
----ForGG gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 12.8877% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 99.9354%
----ForGG gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 9.96433% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 99.9031%
----ForGG gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

This happens 8.41% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 100%
----ForGG gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----ForGG gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 7.93433% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 95.6021%
----ForGG gets 1st place in Europe Placement
----ForGG gets 8th place in Europe Premier

This happens 7.81933% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 100%
----ForGG gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 6.30333% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 98.1624%
----ForGG gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----ForGG gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 5.85733% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 89.9191%
----ForGG gets 1st place in IEM

This happens 5.32533% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 100%
----ForGG gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 4.945% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 89.6483%
----ForGG gets 1st place in Dreamhack

This happens 4.762% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 100%
----ForGG gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----ForGG gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 4.368% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 100%
----ForGG gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 4.24667% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 99.7729%
----ForGG gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----ForGG gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

This happens 3.65467% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 99.9909%
----ForGG gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----ForGG gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 3.321% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 70.1719%
----ForGG gets 2nd place in IEM

This happens 3.321% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 70.1719%
----ForGG gets 2nd place in IEM

This happens 3.31833% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 10.4367%
----ForGG gets 16th place in Europe Premier

Maru Prime 49.9343% 149803/300000, started with 2425 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 15.4037% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 99.7475%
----Maru Prime gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 13.554% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 99.9975%
----Maru Prime gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 8.551% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100%
----Maru Prime gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 7.28867% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100%
----Maru Prime gets 2nd place in Korea Premier

This happens 6.98633% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100%
----Maru Prime gets 1st place in Korea Premier

This happens 6.80967% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 99.4354%
----Maru Prime gets 1st place in Korea Placement
----Maru Prime gets 8th place in Korea Premier

This happens 6.181% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 12.8932%
----Maru Prime gets 16th place in Korea Premier

This happens 6.181% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 12.8932%
----Maru Prime gets 16th place in Korea Premier

This happens 6.01833% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 99.9945%
----Maru Prime gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----Maru Prime gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 4.984% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100%
----Maru Prime gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 3.36333% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100%
----Maru Prime gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----Maru Prime gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 3.30333% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 67.47%
----Maru Prime gets 8th place in IEM

This happens 3.30333% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 67.47%
----Maru Prime gets 8th place in IEM

This happens 3.21233% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100%
----Maru Prime gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----Maru Prime gets 2nd place in Korea Premier

This happens 3.10033% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 98.7682%
----Maru Prime gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----Maru Prime gets 1st place in Korea Placement
----Maru Prime gets 8th place in Korea Premier

This happens 3.07267% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100%
----Maru Prime gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----Maru Prime gets 1st place in Korea Premier

This happens 2.96033% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100%
----Maru Prime gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 2.73967% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100%
----Maru Prime gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 2.12167% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 76.2002%
----Maru Prime gets 4th place in IEM

Rain SKT1 39.014% 117042/300000, started with 2250 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 15.5197% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 98.7298%
----Rain SKT1 gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 13.685% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 99.8662%
----Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 8.54467% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100%
----Rain SKT1 gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 7.162% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 97.5306%
----Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Placement

This happens 7.05333% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100%
----Rain SKT1 gets 2nd place in Korea Premier

This happens 6.27533% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 99.7087%
----Rain SKT1 gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 6.14367% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100%
----Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Premier

This happens 4.80767% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100%
----Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 3.404% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100%
----Rain SKT1 gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 3.23167% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100%
----Rain SKT1 gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----Rain SKT1 gets 2nd place in Korea Premier

This happens 3.22433% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 94.6755%
----Rain SKT1 gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Placement

This happens 2.78833% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100%
----Rain SKT1 gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Premier

This happens 2.62433% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100%
----Rain SKT1 gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 2.54767% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100%
----Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 2.24767% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 17.0869%
----Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Placement

This happens 2.24767% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 17.0869%
----Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Placement

This happens 1.947% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100%
----Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 1.824% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100%
----Rain SKT1 gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Placement

This happens 1.76567% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100%
----Rain SKT1 gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----Rain SKT1 gets 2nd place in Korea Premier

This happens 1.58067% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 3.45363%
----Rain SKT1 gets 16th place in Korea Premier

duckdeok 36.9047% 110714/300000, started with 2300 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 16.3243% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 99.222%
----duckdeok gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 12.8877% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 99.8193%
----duckdeok gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 8.01% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100%
----duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 7.00533% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 99.668%
----duckdeok gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----duckdeok gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 6.573% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100%
----duckdeok gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

This happens 5.887% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 98.2531%
----duckdeok gets 1st place in Europe Placement

This happens 5.11333% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100%
----duckdeok gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 3.58633% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100%
----duckdeok gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 3.53033% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100%
----duckdeok gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----duckdeok gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

This happens 3.34767% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100%
----duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----duckdeok gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 3.07567% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 96.7089%
----duckdeok gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----duckdeok gets 1st place in Europe Placement

This happens 2.96633% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 26.3175%
----duckdeok gets 4th place in Europe Placement
----duckdeok gets 8th place in Europe Premier

This happens 2.96633% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 26.3175%
----duckdeok gets 4th place in Europe Placement

This happens 2.713% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100%
----duckdeok gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----duckdeok gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.94067% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 3.70693%
----duckdeok gets 16th place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.94067% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 3.70693%
----duckdeok gets 16th place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.70133% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100%
----duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----duckdeok gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.614% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100%
----duckdeok gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals

Scarlett 32.844% 98532/300000, started with 2050 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 15.2963% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 94.4976%
----Scarlett gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 12.995% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 98.3948%
----Scarlett gets 4th place in America Premier

This happens 8.498% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 99.8903%
----Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 7.743% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 91.9087%
----Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Placement
----Scarlett gets 8th place in America Premier

This happens 6.28967% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 96.7393%
----Scarlett gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----Scarlett gets 4th place in America Premier

This happens 5.96867% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 99.894%
----Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Premier

This happens 5.366% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100%
----Scarlett gets 1st place in America Premier

This happens 4.33833% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100%
----Scarlett gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 3.47767% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 83.7992%
----Scarlett gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Placement
----Scarlett gets 8th place in America Premier

This happens 3.439% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100%
----Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----Scarlett gets 4th place in America Premier

This happens 2.904% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 99.7824%
----Scarlett gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Premier

This happens 2.625% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100%
----Scarlett gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----Scarlett gets 1st place in America Premier

This happens 2.21267% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100%
----Scarlett gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 2.12033% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 99.5617%
----Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Placement
----Scarlett gets 8th place in America Premier

This happens 1.73233% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100%
----Scarlett gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----Scarlett gets 4th place in America Premier

This happens 1.72733% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100%
----Scarlett gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 1.55267% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100%
----Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Premier

This happens 1.386% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100%
----Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----Scarlett gets 1st place in America Premier

This happens 1.12367% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100%
----Scarlett gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Placement
----Scarlett gets 8th place in America Premier

MMA Acer 25.97% 77910/300000, started with 1550 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 10.1397% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 74.7506%
----MMA Acer gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 10.1397% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 74.7506%
----MMA Acer gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 8.716% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 99.9579%
----MMA Acer gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 7.79333% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 83.0403%
----MMA Acer gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 7.79333% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 83.0403%
----MMA Acer gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 7.06767% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 95.7981%
----MMA Acer gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 5.96467% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 95.2721%
----MMA Acer gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

This happens 4.06233% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 99.9098%
----MMA Acer gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 3.99267% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 99.9082%
----MMA Acer gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----MMA Acer gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 2.58133% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 89.9002%
----MMA Acer gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----MMA Acer gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

This happens 2.28733% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 96.2142%
----MMA Acer gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----MMA Acer gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 2.25133% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 100%
----MMA Acer gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 2.2% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 100%
----MMA Acer gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----MMA Acer gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 2.12367% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 100%
----MMA Acer gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 1.55433% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 99.6155%
----MMA Acer gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----MMA Acer gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.294% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 100%
----MMA Acer gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----MMA Acer gets 4th place in Europe Premier

HyuN 25.3053% 75916/300000, started with 1625 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 8.84733% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 76.762%
----HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 8.84733% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 76.762%
----HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 8.76633% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 99.9924%
----HyuN gets 1st place in America Premier

This happens 6.24367% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 96.9413%
----HyuN gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 6.023% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 73.8083%
----HyuN gets 2nd place in America Placement
----HyuN gets 8th place in America Premier

This happens 6.023% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 73.8083%
----HyuN gets 2nd place in America Placement
----HyuN gets 8th place in America Premier

This happens 5.27967% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 97.4888%
----HyuN gets 2nd place in America Premier

This happens 4.68067% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 88.6154%
----HyuN gets 4th place in America Premier

This happens 4.02967% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 100%
----HyuN gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 3.59533% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 99.9815%
----HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----HyuN gets 1st place in America Premier

This happens 3.31133% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 100%
----HyuN gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 2.31767% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 100%
----HyuN gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 2.14767% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 94.0584%
----HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----HyuN gets 2nd place in America Premier

This happens 2.103% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 32.8491%
----HyuN gets 1st place in Dreamhack

This happens 2.044% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 100%
----HyuN gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----HyuN gets 1st place in America Premier

This happens 1.739% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 90.9836%
----HyuN gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----HyuN gets 2nd place in America Placement
----HyuN gets 8th place in America Premier

This happens 1.60867% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 73.6007%
----HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----HyuN gets 4th place in America Premier

NaNiwa 23.8807% 71642/300000, started with 2525 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 4.84267% of the time and would change NaNiwa's chances to 33.1727%
----NaNiwa gets 8th place in IEM

This happens 4.84267% of the time and would change NaNiwa's chances to 33.1727%
----NaNiwa gets 8th place in IEM

This happens 4.75667% of the time and would change NaNiwa's chances to 96.2498%
----NaNiwa gets 1st place in IEM

This happens 4.57033% of the time and would change NaNiwa's chances to 18.0474%
----NaNiwa gets 16th place in IEM

This happens 3.33933% of the time and would change NaNiwa's chances to 77.1981%
----NaNiwa gets 2nd place in IEM

MC 20.3017% 60905/300000, started with 2275 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 9.04967% of the time and would change MC's chances to 98.8494%
----MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 6.97067% of the time and would change MC's chances to 99.6996%
----MC gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 4.46333% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100%
----MC gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 3.711% of the time and would change MC's chances to 99.4373%
----MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----MC gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 3.62867% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100%
----MC gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

This happens 3.44% of the time and would change MC's chances to 97.6071%
----MC gets 1st place in Europe Placement
----MC gets 8th place in Europe Premier

This happens 3.07767% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100%
----MC gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 2.07333% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100%
----MC gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 1.92133% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100%
----MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----MC gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.81533% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100%
----MC gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----MC gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.77933% of the time and would change MC's chances to 95.4749%
----MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----MC gets 1st place in Europe Placement
----MC gets 8th place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.638% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100%
----MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----MC gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.16933% of the time and would change MC's chances to 26.5798%
----MC gets 8th place in IEM

This happens 0.951667% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100%
----MC gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----MC gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.915667% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100%
----MC gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----MC gets 1st place in Europe Placement
----MC gets 8th place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.830667% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100%
----MC gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----MC gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.780667% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100%
----MC gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----MC gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.777% of the time and would change MC's chances to 2.77177%
----MC gets 16th place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.733% of the time and would change MC's chances to 32.9636%
----MC gets 4th place in IEM

Happy Empire 19.6267% 58880/300000, started with 950 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 9.699% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 88.0127%
----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 5.10033% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 86.5343%
----Happy Empire gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 4.277% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 28.9547%
----Happy Empire gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 3.058% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 99.7066%
----Happy Empire gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 2.79767% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 98.9741%
----Happy Empire gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 2.58733% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 100%
----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 1.79933% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 88.4193%
----Happy Empire gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----Happy Empire gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.79433% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 6.36446%
----Happy Empire gets 8th place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.50933% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 100%
----Happy Empire gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.16633% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 98.3694%
----Happy Empire gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----Happy Empire gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.049% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 100%
----Happy Empire gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----Happy Empire gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.868667% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 100%
----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----Happy Empire gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.786% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 100%
----Happy Empire gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.683667% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 100%
----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.628333% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 100%
----Happy Empire gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----Happy Empire gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.594667% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 98.5091%
----Happy Empire gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----Happy Empire gets 8th place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.526667% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 100%
----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----Happy Empire gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

Flash KT 19.153% 57459/300000, started with 700 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 8.146% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 81.3813%
----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Premier

This happens 4.683% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 79.8103%
----Flash KT gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 4.62633% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 100%
----Flash KT gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 3.349% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 98.8683%
----Flash KT gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 2.28367% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 94.4314%
----Flash KT gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Premier

This happens 2.00233% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 8.67036%
----Flash KT gets 8th place in Korea Premier

This happens 2.001% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 26.8687%
----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Placement
----Flash KT gets 8th place in Korea Premier

This happens 1.92233% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 31.5171%
----Flash KT gets 1st place in Dreamhack

This happens 1.61867% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 77.8455%
----Flash KT gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----Flash KT gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 1.60967% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 100%
----Flash KT gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----Flash KT gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 1.47433% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 100%
----Flash KT gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Premier

This happens 1.22% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 100%
----Flash KT gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Premier

This happens 1.20333% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 99.5862%
----Flash KT gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----Flash KT gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 1.166% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 95.1578%
----Flash KT gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----Flash KT gets 2nd place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.932333% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 100%
----Flash KT gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----Flash KT gets 2nd place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.864333% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 100%
----Flash KT gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Placement
----Flash KT gets 8th place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.862333% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 100%
----Flash KT gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Premier

VortiX 17.81% 53430/300000, started with 900 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 8.76733% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 83.791%
----VortiX gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 4.82867% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 83.6422%
----VortiX gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 3.987% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 26.8515%
----VortiX gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 2.93567% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 99.3233%
----VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 2.64533% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 97.446%
----VortiX gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----VortiX gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 2.367% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 100%
----VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 1.76033% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 87.0016%
----VortiX gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----VortiX gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.59633% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 5.61443%
----VortiX gets 8th place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.41133% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 100%
----VortiX gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----VortiX gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.153% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 97.2175%
----VortiX gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----VortiX gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.03033% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 100%
----VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----VortiX gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.834333% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 100%
----VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----VortiX gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.707333% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 100%
----VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----VortiX gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.615667% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 100%
----VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----VortiX gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.597667% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 100%
----VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----VortiX gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.582333% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 96.6796%
----VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----VortiX gets 8th place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.472% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 100%
----VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----VortiX gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

KangHo 17.0763% 51229/300000, started with 1500 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 7.79567% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 66.6961%
----KangHo gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 5.538% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 88.4382%
----KangHo gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 4.30733% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 87.8808%
----KangHo gets 2nd place in Korea Premier

This happens 3.002% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 99.8116%
----KangHo gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 2.76% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 99.699%
----KangHo gets 1st place in Korea Premier

This happens 2.724% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 92.0685%
----KangHo gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----KangHo gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 2.21367% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 9.11311%
----KangHo gets 8th place in Korea Premier

This happens 1.98833% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 77.3771%
----KangHo gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----KangHo gets 2nd place in Korea Premier

This happens 1.452% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 100%
----KangHo gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 1.42967% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 100%
----KangHo gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----KangHo gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 1.41233% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 99.4134%
----KangHo gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----KangHo gets 1st place in Korea Premier

This happens 1.266% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 99.0094%
----KangHo gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----KangHo gets 2nd place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.732667% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 100%
----KangHo gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----KangHo gets 1st place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.696667% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 100%
----KangHo gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----KangHo gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.636% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 99.1169%
----KangHo gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----KangHo gets 1st place in Korea Placement
----KangHo gets 8th place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.586% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 100%
----KangHo gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----KangHo gets 2nd place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.350333% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 100%
----KangHo gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----KangHo gets 1st place in Korea Premier

Welmu 13.9823% 41947/300000, started with 1050 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 4.991% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 92.1812%
----Welmu gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 4.20733% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 26.676%
----Welmu gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 3.748% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 92.6576%
----Welmu gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 1.78767% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 99.9069%
----Welmu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 1.67033% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 94.3513%
----Welmu gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----Welmu gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.521% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 75.3095%
----Welmu gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----Welmu gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.431% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 99.7676%
----Welmu gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----Welmu gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.17067% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 4.25635%
----Welmu gets 8th place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.15267% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 28.3443%
----Welmu gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----Welmu gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.868333% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 99.5034%
----Welmu gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----Welmu gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.798667% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 100%
----Welmu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----Welmu gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.624333% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 100%
----Welmu gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----Welmu gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.585% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 75.225%
----Welmu gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----Welmu gets 8th place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.380667% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 100%
----Welmu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----Welmu gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.341333% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 99.5141%
----Welmu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----Welmu gets 8th place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.267% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 100%
----Welmu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----Welmu gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.0493333% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 2.69925%
----Welmu gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----Welmu gets 8th place in Europe Premier

StarDust 12.4123% 37237/300000, started with 950 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 5.64133% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 92.7647%
----StarDust gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 3.24133% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 28.3904%
----StarDust gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 2.938% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 92.4675%
----StarDust gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 2.45767% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 85.1091%
----StarDust gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----StarDust gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.619% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 99.8766%
----StarDust gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 1.56733% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 99.366%
----StarDust gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----StarDust gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.36333% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 100%
----StarDust gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 1.093% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 7.75709%
----StarDust gets 8th place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.09067% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 25.4057%
----StarDust gets 1st place in Europe Placement
----StarDust gets 8th place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.04633% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 93.4783%
----StarDust gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----StarDust gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.912667% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 72.0526%
----StarDust gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----StarDust gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.816333% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 100%
----StarDust gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----StarDust gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.664667% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 99.5507%
----StarDust gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----StarDust gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.661667% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 31.3834%
----StarDust gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----StarDust gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.557667% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 100%
----StarDust gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----StarDust gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.501667% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 20.9406%
----StarDust gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----StarDust gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.474% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 100%
----StarDust gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----StarDust gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.432667% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 100%
----StarDust gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----StarDust gets 1st place in Europe Premier

PartinG 12.0767% 36230/300000, started with 800 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 4.60467% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 78.3284%
----PartinG gets 1st place in Korea Premier

This happens 3.61267% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 27.7876%
----PartinG gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 3.502% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 77.6956%
----PartinG gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 2.41% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 99.2042%
----PartinG gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 2.36233% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 100%
----PartinG gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 2.162% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 26.8694%
----PartinG gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 1.449% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 79.5425%
----PartinG gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----PartinG gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 1.40733% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 95.3478%
----PartinG gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----PartinG gets 1st place in Korea Premier

This happens 1.279% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 19.9906%
----PartinG gets 1st place in Korea Placement

This happens 1.279% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 19.9906%
----PartinG gets 1st place in Korea Placement
----PartinG gets 8th place in Korea Premier

This happens 1.00333% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 99.9336%
----PartinG gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----PartinG gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.943333% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 100%
----PartinG gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----PartinG gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.892333% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 95.1991%
----PartinG gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----PartinG gets 2nd place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.842% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 100%
----PartinG gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----PartinG gets 1st place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.519667% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 100%
----PartinG gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----PartinG gets 2nd place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.498667% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 100%
----PartinG gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----PartinG gets 2nd place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.468% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 100%
----PartinG gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----PartinG gets 1st place in Korea Placement

This happens 0.468% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 100%
----PartinG gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----PartinG gets 1st place in Korea Placement
----PartinG gets 8th place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.465667% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 96.1459%
----PartinG gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----PartinG gets 1st place in Korea Placement
----PartinG gets 8th place in Korea Premier

Nerchio 8.66333% 25990/300000, started with 275 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 2.32267% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 100%
----Nerchio gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 2.27833% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 84.3307%
----Nerchio gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 1.88933% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 14.0082%
----Nerchio gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.68267% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 20.7779%
----Nerchio gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.37633% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 14.0902%
----Nerchio gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 1.33667% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 96.8833%
----Nerchio gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----Nerchio gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.789333% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 100%
----Nerchio gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----Nerchio gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.789% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 83.6691%
----Nerchio gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----Nerchio gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.735% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 100%
----Nerchio gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----Nerchio gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.605% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 100%
----Nerchio gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----Nerchio gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.559% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 97.6135%
----Nerchio gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----Nerchio gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.501% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 100%
----Nerchio gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----Nerchio gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.259667% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 14.4313%
----Nerchio gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----Nerchio gets 4th place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.096% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 4.68597%
----Nerchio gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----Nerchio gets 2nd place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.0436667% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 1.27283%
----Nerchio gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----Nerchio gets 4th place in Europe Premier

DongRaeGu 7.82133% 23464/300000, started with 425 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 2.93933% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 100%
----DongRaeGu gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 2.213% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 85.0282%
----DongRaeGu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 2.11867% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 17.9335%
----DongRaeGu gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 1.65733% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 24.6066%
----DongRaeGu gets 2nd place in Korea Premier

This happens 1.06733% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 100%
----DongRaeGu gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----DongRaeGu gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.982667% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 97.2937%
----DongRaeGu gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----DongRaeGu gets 1st place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.847% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 86.2233%
----DongRaeGu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----DongRaeGu gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.647% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 100%
----DongRaeGu gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----DongRaeGu gets 1st place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.607333% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 100%
----DongRaeGu gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----DongRaeGu gets 2nd place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.536% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 100%
----DongRaeGu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----DongRaeGu gets 1st place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.521333% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 98.2412%
----DongRaeGu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----DongRaeGu gets 2nd place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.181% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 10.3271%
----DongRaeGu gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----DongRaeGu gets 4th place in Korea Premier

Jim CN 6.54233% 19627/300000, started with 550 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 1.78667% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 100%
----Jim CN gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 1.71833% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 91.5956%
----Jim CN gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 1.37033% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 26.2332%
----Jim CN gets 2nd place in America Premier

This happens 1.09333% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 13.4819%
----Jim CN gets 2nd place in America Placement

This happens 1.09033% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 18.9119%
----Jim CN gets 4th place in America Premier

This happens 1.05533% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 17.2%
----Jim CN gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 0.980333% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 70.9187%
----Jim CN gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----Jim CN gets 1st place in America Premier

This happens 0.778% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 99.6584%
----Jim CN gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----Jim CN gets 1st place in America Premier

This happens 0.577667% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 100%
----Jim CN gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----Jim CN gets 2nd place in America Placement

This happens 0.527% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 72.8236%
----Jim CN gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----Jim CN gets 2nd place in America Premier

This happens 0.460667% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 77.5098%
----Jim CN gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----Jim CN gets 2nd place in America Placement

This happens 0.44% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 100%
----Jim CN gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----Jim CN gets 1st place in America Premier

This happens 0.426% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 100%
----Jim CN gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----Jim CN gets 4th place in America Premier

This happens 0.416333% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 100%
----Jim CN gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----Jim CN gets 1st place in America Premier

This happens 0.412667% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 94.7207%
----Jim CN gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----Jim CN gets 4th place in America Premier

This happens 0.405% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 99.7537%
----Jim CN gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----Jim CN gets 2nd place in America Premier

This happens 0.366667% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 100%
----Jim CN gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----Jim CN gets 2nd place in America Premier

This happens 0.230667% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 28.6069%
----Jim CN gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----Jim CN gets 4th place in America Premier

This happens 0.052% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 4.00308%
----Jim CN gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----Jim CN gets 2nd place in America Premier

Oz 6.31867% 18956/300000, started with 1100 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 2.696% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 31.1917%
----Oz gets 4th place in America Premier

This happens 1.738% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 93.5582%
----Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 1.45067% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 13.2079%
----Oz gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 1.17433% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 18.2814%
----Oz gets 2nd place in America Placement

This happens 1.03967% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 94.889%
----Oz gets 1st place in America Premier

This happens 0.812667% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 96.8613%
----Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----Oz gets 4th place in America Premier

This happens 0.578667% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 91.1765%
----Oz gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----Oz gets 1st place in America Premier

This happens 0.572667% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 85.4726%
----Oz gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----Oz gets 2nd place in America Premier

This happens 0.545667% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 85.3938%
----Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----Oz gets 2nd place in America Placement

This happens 0.43% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 28.3579%
----Oz gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----Oz gets 2nd place in America Premier

This happens 0.380667% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 7.43441%
----Oz gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----Oz gets 4th place in America Premier

This happens 0.297667% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 100%
----Oz gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----Oz gets 1st place in America Premier

This happens 0.268667% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 100%
----Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----Oz gets 2nd place in America Premier

This happens 0.205% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 11.986%
----Oz gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals
----Oz gets 2nd place in America Placement

This happens 0.111% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 100%
----Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----Oz gets 1st place in America Premier

This happens 0.0613333% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 1.6523%
----Oz gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals
----Oz gets 2nd place in America Placement

Sen 5.74533% 17236/300000, started with 325 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 2.16267% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 100%
----Sen gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 1.64067% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 73.6496%
----Sen gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 1.29533% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 30.6153%
----Sen gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 1.27967% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 19.4764%
----Sen gets 2nd place in America Premier

This happens 1.03767% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 14.3028%
----Sen gets 4th place in America Premier

This happens 0.895667% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 96.2048%
----Sen gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----Sen gets 1st place in America Premier

This happens 0.527% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 100%
----Sen gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----Sen gets 4th place in America Premier

This happens 0.490333% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 100%
----Sen gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----Sen gets 1st place in America Premier

This happens 0.473667% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 100%
----Sen gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----Sen gets 1st place in America Premier

This happens 0.473333% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 100%
----Sen gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----Sen gets 2nd place in America Premier

This happens 0.459667% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 96.9761%
----Sen gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----Sen gets 2nd place in America Premier

This happens 0.443% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 80.0602%
----Sen gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----Sen gets 4th place in America Premier

This happens 0.059% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 5.71521%
----Sen gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----Sen gets 4th place in America Premier

NesTea 5.58133% 16744/300000, started with 600 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 1.67867% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 15.1313%
----NesTea gets 4th place in America Premier

This happens 1.61133% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 94.2668%
----NesTea gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 1.14833% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 100%
----NesTea gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 1.05433% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 22.8161%
----NesTea gets 2nd place in America Premier

This happens 0.657333% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 96.9518%
----NesTea gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----NesTea gets 4th place in America Premier

This happens 0.508% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 100%
----NesTea gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----NesTea gets 1st place in America Premier

This happens 0.497333% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 81.933%
----NesTea gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----NesTea gets 2nd place in America Premier

This happens 0.460333% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 100%
----NesTea gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----NesTea gets 4th place in America Premier

This happens 0.294% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 100%
----NesTea gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----NesTea gets 2nd place in America Premier

This happens 0.255333% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 100%
----NesTea gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----NesTea gets 1st place in America Premier

This happens 0.192667% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 100%
----NesTea gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----NesTea gets 2nd place in America Premier

This happens 0.157667% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 100%
----NesTea gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----NesTea gets 1st place in America Premier

soO 5.15767% 15473/300000, started with 800 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 1.95933% of the time and would change soO's chances to 18.2433%
----soO gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 1.79833% of the time and would change soO's chances to 70.1743%
----soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 1.507% of the time and would change soO's chances to 68.3653%
----soO gets 1st place in Korea Premier

This happens 1.18267% of the time and would change soO's chances to 26.8768%
----soO gets 2nd place in Korea Premier

This happens 1.17067% of the time and would change soO's chances to 98.7904%
----soO gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 0.917% of the time and would change soO's chances to 70.9386%
----soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----soO gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.577% of the time and would change soO's chances to 99.4256%
----soO gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----soO gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.48% of the time and would change soO's chances to 92.3669%
----soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----soO gets 2nd place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.264667% of the time and would change soO's chances to 100%
----soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----soO gets 1st place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.249% of the time and would change soO's chances to 100%
----soO gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----soO gets 2nd place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.123% of the time and would change soO's chances to 100%
----soO gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----soO gets 1st place in Korea Premier

HuK 3.96633% 11899/300000, started with 600 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 0.215333% of the time and would change HuK's chances to 99.8454%
----HuK gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----HuK gets 1st place in America Premier

Super MVP 3.865% 11595/300000, started with 50 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 2.11233% of the time and would change Super MVP's chances to 99.9527%
----Super MVP gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 1.38067% of the time and would change Super MVP's chances to 25.7619%
----Super MVP gets 1st place in Korea Premier

This happens 1.191% of the time and would change Super MVP's chances to 9.49332%
----Super MVP gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.888667% of the time and would change Super MVP's chances to 100%
----Super MVP gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----Super MVP gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.413333% of the time and would change Super MVP's chances to 99.5185%
----Super MVP gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----Super MVP gets 1st place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.364667% of the time and would change Super MVP's chances to 100%
----Super MVP gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----Super MVP gets 1st place in Korea Premier

This happens 0.281667% of the time and would change Super MVP's chances to 29.7326%
----Super MVP gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----Super MVP gets 4th place in Korea Premier

KeeN 3.23533% 9706/300000, started with 375 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 1.18133% of the time and would change KeeN's chances to 10.3981%
----KeeN gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 1.173% of the time and would change KeeN's chances to 81.2702%
----KeeN gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 0.611667% of the time and would change KeeN's chances to 89.2944%
----KeeN gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----KeeN gets 4th place in Korea Premier

Genius 3.175% 9525/300000, started with 50 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 1.454% of the time and would change Genius's chances to 21.7253%
----Genius gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 1.29033% of the time and would change Genius's chances to 100%
----Genius gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 0.385% of the time and would change Genius's chances to 99.7409%
----Genius gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----Genius gets 1st place in Europe Premier

This happens 0.267% of the time and would change Genius's chances to 100%
----Genius gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals
----Genius gets 1st place in Europe Premier

Trap 3.01033% 9031/300000, started with 450 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 1.11867% of the time and would change Trap's chances to 10.2998%
----Trap gets 4th place in Korea Premier

This happens 1.07167% of the time and would change Trap's chances to 85.6876%
----Trap gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals

This happens 0.545333% of the time and would change Trap's chances to 92.221%
----Trap gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals
----Trap gets 4th place in Korea Premier

CranK Axiom 2.771% 8313/300000, started with 750 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] +

This happens 1.14233% of the time and would change CranK Axiom's chances to 13.2496%
----CranK Axiom gets 4th place in America Premier

This happens 0.578333% of the time and would change CranK Axiom's chances to 74.3678%
----CranK Axiom gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals
----CranK Axiom gets 4th place in America Premier

TitaN RoX.Kis 2.345% 7035/300000, started with 750 WCS points

Dear STX 2.328% 6984/300000, started with 250 WCS points

ThorZaIN 2.09367% 6281/300000, started with 525 WCS points

TheStC 2.02733% 6082/300000, started with 700 WCS points

jjakji 1.82367% 5471/300000, started with 25 WCS points

Sage 1.54667% 4640/300000, started with 525 WCS points

Kas 1.48933% 4468/300000, started with 250 WCS points

Hack 1.42033% 4261/300000, started with 50 WCS points

BabyKnight 1.399% 4197/300000, started with 750 WCS points

Starbuck 1.37333% 4120/300000, started with 100 WCS points

ByuL 1.26% 3780/300000, started with 100 WCS points

MacSed 1.12067% 3362/300000, started with 700 WCS points

TLO 1.026% 3078/300000, started with 1950 WCS points

Suppy 0.785667% 2357/300000, started with 550 WCS points

Apocalypse 0.779333% 2338/300000, started with 500 WCS points

Targa 0.746333% 2239/300000, started with 50 WCS points

Heart 0.725% 2175/300000, started with 250 WCS points

First IM 0.691667% 2075/300000, started with 2050 WCS points

Goswser 0.661% 1983/300000, started with 375 WCS points

ShoWTimE ESC 0.621% 1863/300000, started with 50 WCS points

DeMusliM 0.523% 1569/300000, started with 400 WCS points

MajOr 0.433% 1299/300000, started with 350 WCS points

Arthur P 0.432% 1296/300000, started with 50 WCS points

Sleep 0.344667% 1034/300000, started with 100 WCS points

Minigun 0.292% 876/300000, started with 600 WCS points

TAiLS MVP 0.264% 792/300000, started with 200 WCS points

Symbol 0.210667% 632/300000, started with 1750 WCS points

Alicia 0.198% 594/300000, started with 1850 WCS points

puCK 0.191333% 574/300000, started with 300 WCS points

KrasS 0.177% 531/300000, started with 175 WCS points

Stephano 0.0796667% 239/300000, started with 2025 WCS points

HwangSin 0.061% 183/300000, started with 250 WCS points

Top CN 0.0476667% 143/300000, started with 250 WCS points

Neeb 0.035% 105/300000, started with 200 WCS points

Ryung 0.0276667% 83/300000, started with 1600 WCS points

Grubby 0.025% 75/300000, started with 1650 WCS points

ViBE 0.00933333% 28/300000, started with 300 WCS points

FireCake 0.00833333% 25/300000, started with 75 WCS points

DIMAGA 0.000333333% 1/300000, started with 1450 WCS points

+ Show Spoiler [Players with a near 0% chance] +

RorO 0% 0/300000, started with 1625 WCS points

LucifroN 0% 0/300000, started with 1150 WCS points

Leenock 0% 0/300000, started with 1150 WCS points

Snute 0% 0/300000, started with 800 WCS points

Life 0% 0/300000, started with 775 WCS points

viOLet 0% 0/300000, started with 750 WCS points

GuMiho 0% 0/300000, started with 750 WCS points

HasuObs 0% 0/300000, started with 700 WCS points

mOOnGLaDe 0% 0/300000, started with 650 WCS points

SaSe 0% 0/300000, started with 625 WCS points

SuperNova 0% 0/300000, started with 625 WCS points

SortOf 0% 0/300000, started with 575 WCS points

Flying 0% 0/300000, started with 550 WCS points

Squirtle 0% 0/300000, started with 525 WCS points

Tefel 0% 0/300000, started with 500 WCS points

Dayshi 0% 0/300000, started with 500 WCS points

hyvaa 0% 0/300000, started with 500 WCS points

MaNa 0% 0/300000, started with 475 WCS points

sLivko 0% 0/300000, started with 475 WCS points

ToD 0% 0/300000, started with 425 WCS points

Bbyong 0% 0/300000, started with 425 WCS points

Shine Samsung 0% 0/300000, started with 425 WCS points

Ret 0% 0/300000, started with 425 WCS points

Shuttle T 0% 0/300000, started with 400 WCS points

Bunny 0% 0/300000, started with 400 WCS points

FanTaSy 0% 0/300000, started with 375 WCS points

YugiOh 0% 0/300000, started with 375 WCS points

Curious 0% 0/300000, started with 375 WCS points

Bly 0% 0/300000, started with 375 WCS points

Strelok 0% 0/300000, started with 350 WCS points

theognis 0% 0/300000, started with 325 WCS points

SjoW 0% 0/300000, started with 300 WCS points

elfi 0% 0/300000, started with 300 WCS points

JangBi 0% 0/300000, started with 275 WCS points

TRUE JinAir 0% 0/300000, started with 275 WCS points

YoDa IM 0% 0/300000, started with 275 WCS points

Sound T 0% 0/300000, started with 250 WCS points

CoCa 0% 0/300000, started with 225 WCS points

uzer 0% 0/300000, started with 225 WCS points

YongHwa 0% 0/300000, started with 225 WCS points

Feast 0% 0/300000, started with 225 WCS points

State 0% 0/300000, started with 225 WCS points

XY 0% 0/300000, started with 225 WCS points

EffOrt 0% 0/300000, started with 200 WCS points

Creator Prime 0% 0/300000, started with 200 WCS points

RagnaroK 0% 0/300000, started with 200 WCS points

MarineKing 0% 0/300000, started with 200 WCS points

KiLLeR Clarity 0% 0/300000, started with 200 WCS points

hellokitty 0% 0/300000, started with 200 WCS points

Beastyqt 0% 0/300000, started with 175 WCS points

Illusion ROOT 0% 0/300000, started with 175 WCS points

Savage 0% 0/300000, started with 175 WCS points

Socke 0% 0/300000, started with 175 WCS points

qxc 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points

Siw 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points

Capoch 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points

Puzzle 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points

Verdi 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points

Hurricane 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points

Harstem 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points

Stats 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points

Crazy KT 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points

Daisy 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points

monchi 0% 0/300000, started with 125 WCS points

Maker 0% 0/300000, started with 125 WCS points

IdrA 0% 0/300000, started with 125 WCS points

Reality 0% 0/300000, started with 125 WCS points

Fenix 0% 0/300000, started with 125 WCS points

Last STX 0% 0/300000, started with 100 WCS points

Tilea 0% 0/300000, started with 100 WCS points

BBoongBBoong 0% 0/300000, started with 100 WCS points

Dream MVP 0% 0/300000, started with 100 WCS points

Noname 0% 0/300000, started with 100 WCS points

JYP 0% 0/300000, started with 75 WCS points

BlinG 0% 0/300000, started with 75 WCS points

Seed 0% 0/300000, started with 75 WCS points

MyuNgSiK 0% 0/300000, started with 75 WCS points

iaguz 0% 0/300000, started with 75 WCS points

Drunkenboi 0% 0/300000, started with 75 WCS points

Avenge 0% 0/300000, started with 75 WCS points

Pigbaby 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points

Swagger 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points

ByuN 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points

Center 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points

ParalyzE 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points

Ruin 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points

San 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points

SeleCT 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points

herO CJ 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points

MorroW 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points

Ian 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points

Jogginghose 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points

Bunny CJ 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points

NightEnD 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points

Sonder 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points

Trust 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points

Xenocider 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points

DarkHydra 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points

Bischu 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points

Bang 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points

Bails 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points

AlaStOr 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points

SonGDuri 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points

Golden 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points

TurN 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points

Pet 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points

s2 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points

sC 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points

Shark Samsung 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points

sKyHigh 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points

Sniper 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points

Solar 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points

Sparta 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points

Terminator 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points

ZerO 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points

VINES 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points

Noblesse 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points

Mamuri 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points

LabyRinth 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points

Kop 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points

JuNi 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points

Journey 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points

Hydra 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points

Dark 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points

Billowy 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points

Balloon 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points

Argo 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points

ALBM 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points

+ Show Spoiler [point cutoffs] +

0.264% of the time 2600 WCS points is enough to qualify
3.84733% of the time 2700 WCS points is enough to qualify
14.225% of the time 2800 WCS points is enough to qualify
25.2323% of the time 2900 WCS points is enough to qualify
43.3423% of the time 3000 WCS points is enough to qualify
57.4237% of the time 3050 WCS points is enough to qualify
69.3907% of the time 3100 WCS points is enough to qualify
72.5907% of the time 3105 WCS points is enough to qualify
73.7887% of the time 3125 WCS points is enough to qualify
75.6743% of the time 3150 WCS points is enough to qualify
78.9523% of the time 3200 WCS points is enough to qualify
87.614% of the time 3300 WCS points is enough to qualify
93.5893% of the time 3400 WCS points is enough to qualify
97.214% of the time 3500 WCS points is enough to qualify
99.809% of the time 3600 WCS points is enough to qualify
99.9653% of the time 3700 WCS points is enough to qualify
99.9977% of the time 3800 WCS points is enough to qualify
99.9997% of the time 3900 WCS points is enough to qualify
100% of the time 4000 WCS points is enough to qualify

Lehtori

Belgium5 Posts

September 14 2013 00:27 GMT

#124

interesting but pointless at the same time

Maleta

Chile150 Posts

September 14 2013 00:36 GMT

#125

im so happy jaedong has a 100% chance

... tyrant plz show the best ZvT ever at blizzcon madafaka!!!!

Olferen

United States39 Posts

September 14 2013 01:11 GMT

#126

On September 14 2013 09:27 Lehtori wrote:
interesting but pointless at the same time

Not really pointless, it's always interesting to see how people apply math to unpredictable outcomes, and see how right/wrong they are and how they could improve their model. This is pretty impressive in my opinion.

Die4Ever

United States17684 Posts

September 14 2013 01:19 GMT

#127

On September 14 2013 09:16 mprs wrote:
25.2323% of the time 2900 WCS points is enough to qualify
43.3423% of the time 3000 WCS points is enough to qualify
57.4237% of the time 3050 WCS points is enough to qualify
69.3907% of the time 3100 WCS points is enough to qualify
72.5907% of the time 3105 WCS points is enough to qualify
73.7887% of the time 3125 WCS points is enough to qualify
75.6743% of the time 3150 WCS points is enough to qualify
78.9523% of the time 3200 WCS points is enough to qualify
87.614% of the time 3300 WCS points is enough to qualify

400 Points is like winning a teir1 tournament isn't it? Quite the spread.

You get 750 points for winning a tier 1, 450 for getting 2nd. So yea it can make a big difference lol.

Gravesong

United States96 Posts

September 14 2013 02:37 GMT

#128

Really cool, thanks for this!

Nebuchad

Switzerland12318 Posts

September 14 2013 02:41 GMT

#129

In the numbers I've read you always have a higher percentage chance of Naniwa winning IEM, vs Naniwa finishing 2nd at IEM. I assume that's a mistake?

Great work anyways

FoShao

United States256 Posts

September 14 2013 04:12 GMT

#130

math.

blade55555

United States17423 Posts

September 14 2013 04:32 GMT

#131

On September 14 2013 09:36 Maleta wrote:
im so happy jaedong has a 100% chance

... tyrant plz show the best ZvT ever at blizzcon madafaka!!!!

I am happy as well ^_^. I'm glad he's able to participate in like every major tournament and do well (minus wcs eu/kr of course). Hope he can win wcs na or at least make top 4 so he can go to the finals again :D

Akaann

Switzerland82 Posts

September 14 2013 08:19 GMT

#132

this is amazing! Thanks

gkts

Germany56 Posts

September 14 2013 09:00 GMT

#133

Finally a use for stochastic!

Good job

Hermanoid

Sweden213 Posts

September 14 2013 09:12 GMT

#134

No shit Jangbi has 0 % to advance, he's retired.

Beta2k

Austria218 Posts

September 14 2013 09:22 GMT

#135

i suggest to run it also with winrates (and/or matchup specific ratings) and then compare it to reality at the end. so you will know which model (elo vs. winrates vs etc.) did the best predictions

thumbs up for your work!

PVJ

Hungary5221 Posts

September 14 2013 13:15 GMT

#136

interesting

DurandaL917

United States92 Posts

September 14 2013 16:35 GMT

#137

All I took away from that was that Grubby still has a chance !! Grubby Fighting !!

+ Show Spoiler +

In all seriousness though, I am holding out hope that at least one or more foreigner will be at Blizzcon. Kinda scary that in the various scenarios, only Scarlett (32.84%) has a better than 20% chance of getting there. I hope that she is recovering from her injuries and has had time to practice ...

DurandaL917

United States92 Posts

September 14 2013 16:36 GMT

#138

great work by the way !

Die4Ever

United States17684 Posts

September 14 2013 18:03 GMT

#139

Ok I'm looking at the WCS points given for challenger league, and this makes no sense lol.
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_2_Europe/Challenger
How do they figure Ret got 33rd to 40th when he lost in the round of 16? The Up and Downs take precedence??? Don't the Up and Downs happen after the season though? Will the next Up and Downs count for Blizzcon?

But then WCS Korea doesn't do it this way
http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_2_Korea_OSL/Challenger
You can see Leenock got 13th to 24th place and 50 WCS points even though he got dead last in his Up and Down group.

havok55

United States276 Posts

September 14 2013 18:30 GMT

#140

It's gonna be sooooo good.

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