EPTBlizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 8
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Guimsbla
Taiwan25 Posts
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Yonnua
United Kingdom2331 Posts
On September 15 2013 03:03 Die4Ever wrote: Ok I'm looking at the WCS points given for challenger league, and this makes no sense lol. http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_2_Europe/Challenger How do they figure Ret got 33rd to 40th when he lost in the round of 16? The Up and Downs take precedence??? Don't the Up and Downs happen after the season though? Will the next Up and Downs count for Blizzcon? But then WCS Korea doesn't do it this way http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_2_Korea_OSL/Challenger You can see Leenock got 13th to 24th place and 50 WCS points even though he got dead last in his Up and Down group. WCS EU doesn't have up and downs, it has a 2 stage challenger division. The first stage is a bracket for immediate qualification to premier. Everybody else is seeded in to the group stage based on performance. Ret didn't win his bracket so he dropped to the group stage. In the group stage he finished last, making him 33rd-40th. WCS KR does have up and downs and they don't give WCS points. All challenger points in WCS KR are based on the bracket stage, because up and downs aren't part of the WCS system. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17588 Posts
On September 15 2013 03:45 Yonnua wrote: WCS EU doesn't have up and downs, it has a 2 stage challenger division. The first stage is a bracket for immediate qualification to premier. Everybody else is seeded in to the group stage based on performance. Ret didn't win his bracket so he dropped to the group stage. In the group stage he finished last, making him 33rd-40th. WCS KR does have up and downs and they don't give WCS points. All challenger points in WCS KR are based on the bracket stage, because up and downs aren't part of the WCS system. thanks, this is gonna be a pain to program lol, does WCS AM use the same system as EU? | ||
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Steel
Japan2283 Posts
On September 14 2013 05:18 KoRStarvid wrote: I don't understand how ELO is related to this at all. Is Glicko based on ELO, or am I missing something else here? Aligulac rankings seem pretty good imo. Are there any better alternatives? I really enjoyed scrolling through the results of this simulation! And unlike some of the other posters, I think the model is appropriately complex! :-) The aligulac point system looked like ELO to me, didn't know there was a difference. I'm pretty sure its calculated in a very similar way anyway | ||
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chuky500
France473 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17588 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17588 Posts
Flash went from 19.153% chances down to 11.7443% ouch Taeja went from 99.4207% to 99.804% lol ForGG went from 59.298% to 61.1547% I still have the old OP saved in a file, let me know if you want to see more of these comparisons. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17588 Posts
+ Show Spoiler [Players with a near 100% chance] + INnoVation 100% 300000/300000, started with 5250 WCS points Jaedong 100% 300000/300000, started with 4325 WCS points Bomber 100% 300000/300000, started with 4250 WCS points + Show Spoiler [Players still in Premier League] + Soulkey WJS 99.9997% 299999/300000, started with 3500 WCS points Polt 99.999% 299997/300000, started with 3625 WCS points aLive 99.9843% 299953/300000, started with 3475 WCS points HerO Liquid 99.957% 299871/300000, started with 3400 WCS points TaeJa 99.4207% 298262/300000, started with 3150 WCS points sOs 98.8087% 296426/300000, started with 3000 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 40.1657% of the time and would change sOs's chances to 97.2519% ----sOs gets 16th place in Korea Premier Revival 80.8357% 242507/300000, started with 2900 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 15.1423% of the time and would change Revival's chances to 85.9936% ----Revival gets 16th place in America Premier This happens 7.443% of the time and would change Revival's chances to 87.175% ----Revival gets 16th place in IEM This happens 1.41233% of the time and would change Revival's chances to 92.1688% ----Revival gets 16th place in IEM ----Revival gets 16th place in America Premier ForGG 59.298% 177894/300000, started with 1950 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 22.1987% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 97.8633% ----ForGG gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 19.7197% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 100% ----ForGG gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 14.9807% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 99.2163% ----ForGG gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 12.8877% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 99.9354% ----ForGG gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 9.96433% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 99.9031% ----ForGG gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 8.41% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 100% ----ForGG gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----ForGG gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 7.93433% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 95.6021% ----ForGG gets 1st place in Europe Placement ----ForGG gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 7.81933% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 100% ----ForGG gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 6.30333% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 98.1624% ----ForGG gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----ForGG gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 5.85733% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 89.9191% ----ForGG gets 1st place in IEM This happens 5.32533% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 100% ----ForGG gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 4.945% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 89.6483% ----ForGG gets 1st place in Dreamhack This happens 4.762% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 100% ----ForGG gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----ForGG gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 4.368% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 100% ----ForGG gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 4.24667% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 99.7729% ----ForGG gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----ForGG gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 3.65467% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 99.9909% ----ForGG gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----ForGG gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 3.321% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 70.1719% ----ForGG gets 2nd place in IEM This happens 3.321% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 70.1719% ----ForGG gets 2nd place in IEM This happens 3.31833% of the time and would change ForGG's chances to 10.4367% ----ForGG gets 16th place in Europe Premier Maru Prime 49.9343% 149803/300000, started with 2425 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 15.4037% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 99.7475% ----Maru Prime gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 13.554% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 99.9975% ----Maru Prime gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 8.551% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100% ----Maru Prime gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 7.28867% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100% ----Maru Prime gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 6.98633% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100% ----Maru Prime gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 6.80967% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 99.4354% ----Maru Prime gets 1st place in Korea Placement ----Maru Prime gets 8th place in Korea Premier This happens 6.181% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 12.8932% ----Maru Prime gets 16th place in Korea Premier This happens 6.181% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 12.8932% ----Maru Prime gets 16th place in Korea Premier This happens 6.01833% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 99.9945% ----Maru Prime gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Maru Prime gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 4.984% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100% ----Maru Prime gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 3.36333% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100% ----Maru Prime gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Maru Prime gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 3.30333% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 67.47% ----Maru Prime gets 8th place in IEM This happens 3.30333% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 67.47% ----Maru Prime gets 8th place in IEM This happens 3.21233% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100% ----Maru Prime gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Maru Prime gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 3.10033% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 98.7682% ----Maru Prime gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Maru Prime gets 1st place in Korea Placement ----Maru Prime gets 8th place in Korea Premier This happens 3.07267% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100% ----Maru Prime gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Maru Prime gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 2.96033% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100% ----Maru Prime gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.73967% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 100% ----Maru Prime gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.12167% of the time and would change Maru Prime's chances to 76.2002% ----Maru Prime gets 4th place in IEM Rain SKT1 39.014% 117042/300000, started with 2250 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 15.5197% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 98.7298% ----Rain SKT1 gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 13.685% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 99.8662% ----Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 8.54467% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100% ----Rain SKT1 gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 7.162% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 97.5306% ----Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Placement This happens 7.05333% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100% ----Rain SKT1 gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 6.27533% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 99.7087% ----Rain SKT1 gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 6.14367% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100% ----Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 4.80767% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100% ----Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 3.404% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100% ----Rain SKT1 gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 3.23167% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100% ----Rain SKT1 gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Rain SKT1 gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 3.22433% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 94.6755% ----Rain SKT1 gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Placement This happens 2.78833% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100% ----Rain SKT1 gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 2.62433% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100% ----Rain SKT1 gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.54767% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100% ----Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.24767% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 17.0869% ----Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Placement This happens 2.24767% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 17.0869% ----Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Placement This happens 1.947% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100% ----Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Rain SKT1 gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 1.824% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100% ----Rain SKT1 gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Rain SKT1 gets 1st place in Korea Placement This happens 1.76567% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 100% ----Rain SKT1 gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Rain SKT1 gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 1.58067% of the time and would change Rain SKT1's chances to 3.45363% ----Rain SKT1 gets 16th place in Korea Premier duckdeok 36.9047% 110714/300000, started with 2300 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 16.3243% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 99.222% ----duckdeok gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 12.8877% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 99.8193% ----duckdeok gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 8.01% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100% ----duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 7.00533% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 99.668% ----duckdeok gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----duckdeok gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 6.573% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100% ----duckdeok gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 5.887% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 98.2531% ----duckdeok gets 1st place in Europe Placement This happens 5.11333% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100% ----duckdeok gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 3.58633% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100% ----duckdeok gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 3.53033% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100% ----duckdeok gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----duckdeok gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 3.34767% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100% ----duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----duckdeok gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 3.07567% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 96.7089% ----duckdeok gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----duckdeok gets 1st place in Europe Placement This happens 2.96633% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 26.3175% ----duckdeok gets 4th place in Europe Placement ----duckdeok gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 2.96633% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 26.3175% ----duckdeok gets 4th place in Europe Placement This happens 2.713% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100% ----duckdeok gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----duckdeok gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 1.94067% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 3.70693% ----duckdeok gets 16th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.94067% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 3.70693% ----duckdeok gets 16th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.70133% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100% ----duckdeok gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----duckdeok gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 1.614% of the time and would change duckdeok's chances to 100% ----duckdeok gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals Scarlett 32.844% 98532/300000, started with 2050 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 15.2963% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 94.4976% ----Scarlett gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 12.995% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 98.3948% ----Scarlett gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 8.498% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 99.8903% ----Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 7.743% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 91.9087% ----Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Placement ----Scarlett gets 8th place in America Premier This happens 6.28967% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 96.7393% ----Scarlett gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Scarlett gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 5.96867% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 99.894% ----Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 5.366% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100% ----Scarlett gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 4.33833% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100% ----Scarlett gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 3.47767% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 83.7992% ----Scarlett gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Placement ----Scarlett gets 8th place in America Premier This happens 3.439% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100% ----Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Scarlett gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 2.904% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 99.7824% ----Scarlett gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 2.625% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100% ----Scarlett gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Scarlett gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 2.21267% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100% ----Scarlett gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.12033% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 99.5617% ----Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Placement ----Scarlett gets 8th place in America Premier This happens 1.73233% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100% ----Scarlett gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Scarlett gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 1.72733% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100% ----Scarlett gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.55267% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100% ----Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 1.386% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100% ----Scarlett gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Scarlett gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 1.12367% of the time and would change Scarlett's chances to 100% ----Scarlett gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Scarlett gets 2nd place in America Placement ----Scarlett gets 8th place in America Premier MMA Acer 25.97% 77910/300000, started with 1550 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 10.1397% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 74.7506% ----MMA Acer gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 10.1397% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 74.7506% ----MMA Acer gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 8.716% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 99.9579% ----MMA Acer gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 7.79333% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 83.0403% ----MMA Acer gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 7.79333% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 83.0403% ----MMA Acer gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 7.06767% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 95.7981% ----MMA Acer gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 5.96467% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 95.2721% ----MMA Acer gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 4.06233% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 99.9098% ----MMA Acer gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 3.99267% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 99.9082% ----MMA Acer gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----MMA Acer gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 2.58133% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 89.9002% ----MMA Acer gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----MMA Acer gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 2.28733% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 96.2142% ----MMA Acer gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----MMA Acer gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 2.25133% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 100% ----MMA Acer gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.2% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 100% ----MMA Acer gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----MMA Acer gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 2.12367% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 100% ----MMA Acer gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.55433% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 99.6155% ----MMA Acer gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----MMA Acer gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 1.294% of the time and would change MMA Acer's chances to 100% ----MMA Acer gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----MMA Acer gets 4th place in Europe Premier HyuN 25.3053% 75916/300000, started with 1625 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 8.84733% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 76.762% ----HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 8.84733% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 76.762% ----HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 8.76633% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 99.9924% ----HyuN gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 6.24367% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 96.9413% ----HyuN gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 6.023% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 73.8083% ----HyuN gets 2nd place in America Placement ----HyuN gets 8th place in America Premier This happens 6.023% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 73.8083% ----HyuN gets 2nd place in America Placement ----HyuN gets 8th place in America Premier This happens 5.27967% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 97.4888% ----HyuN gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 4.68067% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 88.6154% ----HyuN gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 4.02967% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 100% ----HyuN gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 3.59533% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 99.9815% ----HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----HyuN gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 3.31133% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 100% ----HyuN gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.31767% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 100% ----HyuN gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.14767% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 94.0584% ----HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----HyuN gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 2.103% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 32.8491% ----HyuN gets 1st place in Dreamhack This happens 2.044% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 100% ----HyuN gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----HyuN gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 1.739% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 90.9836% ----HyuN gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----HyuN gets 2nd place in America Placement ----HyuN gets 8th place in America Premier This happens 1.60867% of the time and would change HyuN's chances to 73.6007% ----HyuN gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----HyuN gets 4th place in America Premier MC 20.3017% 60905/300000, started with 2275 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 9.04967% of the time and would change MC's chances to 98.8494% ----MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 6.97067% of the time and would change MC's chances to 99.6996% ----MC gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 4.46333% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100% ----MC gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 3.711% of the time and would change MC's chances to 99.4373% ----MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----MC gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 3.62867% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100% ----MC gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 3.44% of the time and would change MC's chances to 97.6071% ----MC gets 1st place in Europe Placement ----MC gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 3.07767% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100% ----MC gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 2.07333% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100% ----MC gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.92133% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100% ----MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----MC gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 1.81533% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100% ----MC gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----MC gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.77933% of the time and would change MC's chances to 95.4749% ----MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----MC gets 1st place in Europe Placement ----MC gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.638% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100% ----MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----MC gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 1.16933% of the time and would change MC's chances to 26.5798% ----MC gets 8th place in IEM This happens 0.951667% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100% ----MC gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----MC gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 0.915667% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100% ----MC gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----MC gets 1st place in Europe Placement ----MC gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.830667% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100% ----MC gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----MC gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.780667% of the time and would change MC's chances to 100% ----MC gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----MC gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 0.777% of the time and would change MC's chances to 2.77177% ----MC gets 16th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.733% of the time and would change MC's chances to 32.9636% ----MC gets 4th place in IEM Happy Empire 19.6267% 58880/300000, started with 950 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 9.699% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 88.0127% ----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 5.10033% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 86.5343% ----Happy Empire gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 4.277% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 28.9547% ----Happy Empire gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 3.058% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 99.7066% ----Happy Empire gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.79767% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 98.9741% ----Happy Empire gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 2.58733% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 100% ----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.79933% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 88.4193% ----Happy Empire gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Happy Empire gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.79433% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 6.36446% ----Happy Empire gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.50933% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 100% ----Happy Empire gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 1.16633% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 98.3694% ----Happy Empire gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Happy Empire gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 1.049% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 100% ----Happy Empire gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Happy Empire gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.868667% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 100% ----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Happy Empire gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.786% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 100% ----Happy Empire gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 0.683667% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 100% ----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 0.628333% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 100% ----Happy Empire gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Happy Empire gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 0.594667% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 98.5091% ----Happy Empire gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Happy Empire gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.526667% of the time and would change Happy Empire's chances to 100% ----Happy Empire gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Happy Empire gets 2nd place in Europe Premier Flash KT 19.153% 57459/300000, started with 700 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 8.146% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 81.3813% ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 4.683% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 79.8103% ----Flash KT gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 4.62633% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 100% ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 3.349% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 98.8683% ----Flash KT gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.28367% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 94.4314% ----Flash KT gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 2.00233% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 8.67036% ----Flash KT gets 8th place in Korea Premier This happens 2.001% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 26.8687% ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Placement ----Flash KT gets 8th place in Korea Premier This happens 1.92233% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 31.5171% ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Dreamhack This happens 1.61867% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 77.8455% ----Flash KT gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 1.60967% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 100% ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 1.47433% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 100% ----Flash KT gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 1.22% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 100% ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 1.20333% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 99.5862% ----Flash KT gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 1.166% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 95.1578% ----Flash KT gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 0.932333% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 100% ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 0.864333% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 100% ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Placement ----Flash KT gets 8th place in Korea Premier This happens 0.862333% of the time and would change Flash KT's chances to 100% ----Flash KT gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Korea Premier VortiX 17.81% 53430/300000, started with 900 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 8.76733% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 83.791% ----VortiX gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 4.82867% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 83.6422% ----VortiX gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 3.987% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 26.8515% ----VortiX gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 2.93567% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 99.3233% ----VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.64533% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 97.446% ----VortiX gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----VortiX gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 2.367% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 100% ----VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.76033% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 87.0016% ----VortiX gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----VortiX gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.59633% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 5.61443% ----VortiX gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.41133% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 100% ----VortiX gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----VortiX gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 1.153% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 97.2175% ----VortiX gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----VortiX gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 1.03033% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 100% ----VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----VortiX gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.834333% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 100% ----VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----VortiX gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.707333% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 100% ----VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----VortiX gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 0.615667% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 100% ----VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----VortiX gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 0.597667% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 100% ----VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----VortiX gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 0.582333% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 96.6796% ----VortiX gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----VortiX gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.472% of the time and would change VortiX's chances to 100% ----VortiX gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----VortiX gets 2nd place in Europe Premier KangHo 17.0763% 51229/300000, started with 1500 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 7.79567% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 66.6961% ----KangHo gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 5.538% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 88.4382% ----KangHo gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 4.30733% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 87.8808% ----KangHo gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 3.002% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 99.8116% ----KangHo gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.76% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 99.699% ----KangHo gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 2.724% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 92.0685% ----KangHo gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----KangHo gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 2.21367% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 9.11311% ----KangHo gets 8th place in Korea Premier This happens 1.98833% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 77.3771% ----KangHo gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----KangHo gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 1.452% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 100% ----KangHo gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.42967% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 100% ----KangHo gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----KangHo gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 1.41233% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 99.4134% ----KangHo gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----KangHo gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 1.266% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 99.0094% ----KangHo gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----KangHo gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 0.732667% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 100% ----KangHo gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----KangHo gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 0.696667% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 100% ----KangHo gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----KangHo gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 0.636% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 99.1169% ----KangHo gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----KangHo gets 1st place in Korea Placement ----KangHo gets 8th place in Korea Premier This happens 0.586% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 100% ----KangHo gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----KangHo gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 0.350333% of the time and would change KangHo's chances to 100% ----KangHo gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----KangHo gets 1st place in Korea Premier Welmu 13.9823% 41947/300000, started with 1050 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 4.991% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 92.1812% ----Welmu gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 4.20733% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 26.676% ----Welmu gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 3.748% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 92.6576% ----Welmu gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.78767% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 99.9069% ----Welmu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.67033% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 94.3513% ----Welmu gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Welmu gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.521% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 75.3095% ----Welmu gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Welmu gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 1.431% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 99.7676% ----Welmu gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Welmu gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 1.17067% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 4.25635% ----Welmu gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.15267% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 28.3443% ----Welmu gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Welmu gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.868333% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 99.5034% ----Welmu gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Welmu gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 0.798667% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 100% ----Welmu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Welmu gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.624333% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 100% ----Welmu gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Welmu gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 0.585% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 75.225% ----Welmu gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Welmu gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.380667% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 100% ----Welmu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Welmu gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 0.341333% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 99.5141% ----Welmu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Welmu gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.267% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 100% ----Welmu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Welmu gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 0.0493333% of the time and would change Welmu's chances to 2.69925% ----Welmu gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Welmu gets 8th place in Europe Premier StarDust 12.4123% 37237/300000, started with 950 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 5.64133% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 92.7647% ----StarDust gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 3.24133% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 28.3904% ----StarDust gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.938% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 92.4675% ----StarDust gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.45767% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 85.1091% ----StarDust gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----StarDust gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 1.619% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 99.8766% ----StarDust gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.56733% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 99.366% ----StarDust gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----StarDust gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 1.36333% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 100% ----StarDust gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.093% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 7.75709% ----StarDust gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.09067% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 25.4057% ----StarDust gets 1st place in Europe Placement ----StarDust gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.04633% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 93.4783% ----StarDust gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----StarDust gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.912667% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 72.0526% ----StarDust gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----StarDust gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 0.816333% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 100% ----StarDust gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----StarDust gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 0.664667% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 99.5507% ----StarDust gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----StarDust gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 0.661667% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 31.3834% ----StarDust gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----StarDust gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.557667% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 100% ----StarDust gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----StarDust gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.501667% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 20.9406% ----StarDust gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----StarDust gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 0.474% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 100% ----StarDust gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----StarDust gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.432667% of the time and would change StarDust's chances to 100% ----StarDust gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----StarDust gets 1st place in Europe Premier PartinG 12.0767% 36230/300000, started with 800 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 4.60467% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 78.3284% ----PartinG gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 3.61267% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 27.7876% ----PartinG gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 3.502% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 77.6956% ----PartinG gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.41% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 99.2042% ----PartinG gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.36233% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 100% ----PartinG gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.162% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 26.8694% ----PartinG gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.449% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 79.5425% ----PartinG gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----PartinG gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 1.40733% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 95.3478% ----PartinG gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----PartinG gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 1.279% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 19.9906% ----PartinG gets 1st place in Korea Placement This happens 1.279% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 19.9906% ----PartinG gets 1st place in Korea Placement ----PartinG gets 8th place in Korea Premier This happens 1.00333% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 99.9336% ----PartinG gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----PartinG gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 0.943333% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 100% ----PartinG gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----PartinG gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 0.892333% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 95.1991% ----PartinG gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----PartinG gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 0.842% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 100% ----PartinG gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----PartinG gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 0.519667% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 100% ----PartinG gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----PartinG gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 0.498667% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 100% ----PartinG gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----PartinG gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 0.468% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 100% ----PartinG gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----PartinG gets 1st place in Korea Placement This happens 0.468% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 100% ----PartinG gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----PartinG gets 1st place in Korea Placement ----PartinG gets 8th place in Korea Premier This happens 0.465667% of the time and would change PartinG's chances to 96.1459% ----PartinG gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----PartinG gets 1st place in Korea Placement ----PartinG gets 8th place in Korea Premier Nerchio 8.66333% 25990/300000, started with 275 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 2.32267% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 100% ----Nerchio gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.27833% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 84.3307% ----Nerchio gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.88933% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 14.0082% ----Nerchio gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.68267% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 20.7779% ----Nerchio gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 1.37633% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 14.0902% ----Nerchio gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.33667% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 96.8833% ----Nerchio gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Nerchio gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 0.789333% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 100% ----Nerchio gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Nerchio gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.789% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 83.6691% ----Nerchio gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Nerchio gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.735% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 100% ----Nerchio gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Nerchio gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 0.605% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 100% ----Nerchio gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Nerchio gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 0.559% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 97.6135% ----Nerchio gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Nerchio gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 0.501% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 100% ----Nerchio gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Nerchio gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 0.259667% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 14.4313% ----Nerchio gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Nerchio gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.096% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 4.68597% ----Nerchio gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Nerchio gets 2nd place in Europe Premier This happens 0.0436667% of the time and would change Nerchio's chances to 1.27283% ----Nerchio gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Nerchio gets 4th place in Europe Premier DongRaeGu 7.82133% 23464/300000, started with 425 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 2.93933% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 100% ----DongRaeGu gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.213% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 85.0282% ----DongRaeGu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 2.11867% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 17.9335% ----DongRaeGu gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 1.65733% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 24.6066% ----DongRaeGu gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 1.06733% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 100% ----DongRaeGu gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----DongRaeGu gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 0.982667% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 97.2937% ----DongRaeGu gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----DongRaeGu gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 0.847% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 86.2233% ----DongRaeGu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----DongRaeGu gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 0.647% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 100% ----DongRaeGu gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----DongRaeGu gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 0.607333% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 100% ----DongRaeGu gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----DongRaeGu gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 0.536% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 100% ----DongRaeGu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----DongRaeGu gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 0.521333% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 98.2412% ----DongRaeGu gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----DongRaeGu gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 0.181% of the time and would change DongRaeGu's chances to 10.3271% ----DongRaeGu gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----DongRaeGu gets 4th place in Korea Premier Jim CN 6.54233% 19627/300000, started with 550 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 1.78667% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 100% ----Jim CN gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.71833% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 91.5956% ----Jim CN gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.37033% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 26.2332% ----Jim CN gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 1.09333% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 13.4819% ----Jim CN gets 2nd place in America Placement This happens 1.09033% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 18.9119% ----Jim CN gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 1.05533% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 17.2% ----Jim CN gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.980333% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 70.9187% ----Jim CN gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Jim CN gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.778% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 99.6584% ----Jim CN gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Jim CN gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.577667% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 100% ----Jim CN gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Jim CN gets 2nd place in America Placement This happens 0.527% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 72.8236% ----Jim CN gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Jim CN gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 0.460667% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 77.5098% ----Jim CN gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Jim CN gets 2nd place in America Placement This happens 0.44% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 100% ----Jim CN gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Jim CN gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.426% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 100% ----Jim CN gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Jim CN gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 0.416333% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 100% ----Jim CN gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Jim CN gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.412667% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 94.7207% ----Jim CN gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Jim CN gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 0.405% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 99.7537% ----Jim CN gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Jim CN gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 0.366667% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 100% ----Jim CN gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Jim CN gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 0.230667% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 28.6069% ----Jim CN gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Jim CN gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 0.052% of the time and would change Jim CN's chances to 4.00308% ----Jim CN gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Jim CN gets 2nd place in America Premier Oz 6.31867% 18956/300000, started with 1100 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 2.696% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 31.1917% ----Oz gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 1.738% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 93.5582% ----Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.45067% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 13.2079% ----Oz gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.17433% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 18.2814% ----Oz gets 2nd place in America Placement This happens 1.03967% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 94.889% ----Oz gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.812667% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 96.8613% ----Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Oz gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 0.578667% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 91.1765% ----Oz gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Oz gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.572667% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 85.4726% ----Oz gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Oz gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 0.545667% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 85.3938% ----Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Oz gets 2nd place in America Placement This happens 0.43% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 28.3579% ----Oz gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Oz gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 0.380667% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 7.43441% ----Oz gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Oz gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 0.297667% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 100% ----Oz gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Oz gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.268667% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 100% ----Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Oz gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 0.205% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 11.986% ----Oz gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----Oz gets 2nd place in America Placement This happens 0.111% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 100% ----Oz gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Oz gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.0613333% of the time and would change Oz's chances to 1.6523% ----Oz gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Oz gets 2nd place in America Placement Sen 5.74533% 17236/300000, started with 325 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 2.16267% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 100% ----Sen gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.64067% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 73.6496% ----Sen gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.29533% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 30.6153% ----Sen gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.27967% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 19.4764% ----Sen gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 1.03767% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 14.3028% ----Sen gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 0.895667% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 96.2048% ----Sen gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Sen gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.527% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 100% ----Sen gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Sen gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 0.490333% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 100% ----Sen gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Sen gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.473667% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 100% ----Sen gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Sen gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.473333% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 100% ----Sen gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Sen gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 0.459667% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 96.9761% ----Sen gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Sen gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 0.443% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 80.0602% ----Sen gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Sen gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 0.059% of the time and would change Sen's chances to 5.71521% ----Sen gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Sen gets 4th place in America Premier NesTea 5.58133% 16744/300000, started with 600 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 1.67867% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 15.1313% ----NesTea gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 1.61133% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 94.2668% ----NesTea gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.14833% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 100% ----NesTea gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.05433% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 22.8161% ----NesTea gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 0.657333% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 96.9518% ----NesTea gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----NesTea gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 0.508% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 100% ----NesTea gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----NesTea gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.497333% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 81.933% ----NesTea gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----NesTea gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 0.460333% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 100% ----NesTea gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----NesTea gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 0.294% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 100% ----NesTea gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----NesTea gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 0.255333% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 100% ----NesTea gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----NesTea gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.192667% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 100% ----NesTea gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----NesTea gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 0.157667% of the time and would change NesTea's chances to 100% ----NesTea gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----NesTea gets 1st place in America Premier soO 5.15767% 15473/300000, started with 800 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 1.95933% of the time and would change soO's chances to 18.2433% ----soO gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 1.79833% of the time and would change soO's chances to 70.1743% ----soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.507% of the time and would change soO's chances to 68.3653% ----soO gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 1.18267% of the time and would change soO's chances to 26.8768% ----soO gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 1.17067% of the time and would change soO's chances to 98.7904% ----soO gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.917% of the time and would change soO's chances to 70.9386% ----soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----soO gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 0.577% of the time and would change soO's chances to 99.4256% ----soO gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----soO gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 0.48% of the time and would change soO's chances to 92.3669% ----soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----soO gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 0.264667% of the time and would change soO's chances to 100% ----soO gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----soO gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 0.249% of the time and would change soO's chances to 100% ----soO gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----soO gets 2nd place in Korea Premier This happens 0.123% of the time and would change soO's chances to 100% ----soO gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----soO gets 1st place in Korea Premier HuK 3.96633% 11899/300000, started with 600 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 0.215333% of the time and would change HuK's chances to 99.8454% ----HuK gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----HuK gets 1st place in America Premier Super MVP 3.865% 11595/300000, started with 50 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 2.11233% of the time and would change Super MVP's chances to 99.9527% ----Super MVP gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.38067% of the time and would change Super MVP's chances to 25.7619% ----Super MVP gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 1.191% of the time and would change Super MVP's chances to 9.49332% ----Super MVP gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 0.888667% of the time and would change Super MVP's chances to 100% ----Super MVP gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Super MVP gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 0.413333% of the time and would change Super MVP's chances to 99.5185% ----Super MVP gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Super MVP gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 0.364667% of the time and would change Super MVP's chances to 100% ----Super MVP gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Super MVP gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 0.281667% of the time and would change Super MVP's chances to 29.7326% ----Super MVP gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Super MVP gets 4th place in Korea Premier KeeN 3.23533% 9706/300000, started with 375 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 1.18133% of the time and would change KeeN's chances to 10.3981% ----KeeN gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 1.173% of the time and would change KeeN's chances to 81.2702% ----KeeN gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.611667% of the time and would change KeeN's chances to 89.2944% ----KeeN gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----KeeN gets 4th place in Korea Premier Genius 3.175% 9525/300000, started with 50 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 1.454% of the time and would change Genius's chances to 21.7253% ----Genius gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 1.29033% of the time and would change Genius's chances to 100% ----Genius gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.385% of the time and would change Genius's chances to 99.7409% ----Genius gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Genius gets 1st place in Europe Premier This happens 0.267% of the time and would change Genius's chances to 100% ----Genius gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----Genius gets 1st place in Europe Premier Trap 3.01033% 9031/300000, started with 450 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 1.11867% of the time and would change Trap's chances to 10.2998% ----Trap gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 1.07167% of the time and would change Trap's chances to 85.6876% ----Trap gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.545333% of the time and would change Trap's chances to 92.221% ----Trap gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals ----Trap gets 4th place in Korea Premier CranK Axiom 2.771% 8313/300000, started with 750 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 1.14233% of the time and would change CranK Axiom's chances to 13.2496% ----CranK Axiom gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 0.578333% of the time and would change CranK Axiom's chances to 74.3678% ----CranK Axiom gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----CranK Axiom gets 4th place in America Premier TitaN RoX.Kis 2.345% 7035/300000, started with 750 WCS points Dear STX 2.328% 6984/300000, started with 250 WCS points ThorZaIN 2.09367% 6281/300000, started with 525 WCS points TheStC 2.02733% 6082/300000, started with 700 WCS points jjakji 1.82367% 5471/300000, started with 25 WCS points Sage 1.54667% 4640/300000, started with 525 WCS points Kas 1.48933% 4468/300000, started with 250 WCS points Hack 1.42033% 4261/300000, started with 50 WCS points BabyKnight 1.399% 4197/300000, started with 750 WCS points Starbuck 1.37333% 4120/300000, started with 100 WCS points ByuL 1.26% 3780/300000, started with 100 WCS points MacSed 1.12067% 3362/300000, started with 700 WCS points Suppy 0.785667% 2357/300000, started with 550 WCS points Apocalypse 0.779333% 2338/300000, started with 500 WCS points Targa 0.746333% 2239/300000, started with 50 WCS points Heart 0.725% 2175/300000, started with 250 WCS points Goswser 0.661% 1983/300000, started with 375 WCS points ShoWTimE ESC 0.621% 1863/300000, started with 50 WCS points DeMusliM 0.523% 1569/300000, started with 400 WCS points MajOr 0.433% 1299/300000, started with 350 WCS points Arthur P 0.432% 1296/300000, started with 50 WCS points Sleep 0.344667% 1034/300000, started with 100 WCS points Minigun 0.292% 876/300000, started with 600 WCS points TAiLS MVP 0.264% 792/300000, started with 200 WCS points puCK 0.191333% 574/300000, started with 300 WCS points KrasS 0.177% 531/300000, started with 175 WCS points HwangSin 0.061% 183/300000, started with 250 WCS points Top CN 0.0476667% 143/300000, started with 250 WCS points Neeb 0.035% 105/300000, started with 200 WCS points ViBE 0.00933333% 28/300000, started with 300 WCS points FireCake 0.00833333% 25/300000, started with 75 WCS points + Show Spoiler [Players not still in Premier League] + Mvp IM 99.9293% 299788/300000, started with 3425 WCS points NaNiwa 23.8807% 71642/300000, started with 2525 WCS points+ Show Spoiler [details] + This happens 4.84267% of the time and would change NaNiwa's chances to 33.1727% ----NaNiwa gets 8th place in IEM This happens 4.84267% of the time and would change NaNiwa's chances to 33.1727% ----NaNiwa gets 8th place in IEM This happens 4.75667% of the time and would change NaNiwa's chances to 96.2498% ----NaNiwa gets 1st place in IEM This happens 4.57033% of the time and would change NaNiwa's chances to 18.0474% ----NaNiwa gets 16th place in IEM This happens 3.33933% of the time and would change NaNiwa's chances to 77.1981% ----NaNiwa gets 2nd place in IEM TLO 1.026% 3078/300000, started with 1950 WCS points First IM 0.691667% 2075/300000, started with 2050 WCS points Symbol 0.210667% 632/300000, started with 1750 WCS points Alicia 0.198% 594/300000, started with 1850 WCS points Stephano 0.0796667% 239/300000, started with 2025 WCS points Ryung 0.0276667% 83/300000, started with 1600 WCS points Grubby 0.025% 75/300000, started with 1650 WCS points DIMAGA 0.000333333% 1/300000, started with 1450 WCS points + Show Spoiler [Players with a near 0% chance] + RorO 0% 0/300000, started with 1625 WCS points LucifroN 0% 0/300000, started with 1150 WCS points Leenock 0% 0/300000, started with 1150 WCS points Snute 0% 0/300000, started with 800 WCS points Life 0% 0/300000, started with 775 WCS points viOLet 0% 0/300000, started with 750 WCS points GuMiho 0% 0/300000, started with 750 WCS points HasuObs 0% 0/300000, started with 700 WCS points mOOnGLaDe 0% 0/300000, started with 650 WCS points SaSe 0% 0/300000, started with 625 WCS points SuperNova 0% 0/300000, started with 625 WCS points SortOf 0% 0/300000, started with 575 WCS points Flying 0% 0/300000, started with 550 WCS points Squirtle 0% 0/300000, started with 525 WCS points Tefel 0% 0/300000, started with 500 WCS points Dayshi 0% 0/300000, started with 500 WCS points hyvaa 0% 0/300000, started with 500 WCS points MaNa 0% 0/300000, started with 475 WCS points sLivko 0% 0/300000, started with 475 WCS points ToD 0% 0/300000, started with 425 WCS points Bbyong 0% 0/300000, started with 425 WCS points Shine Samsung 0% 0/300000, started with 425 WCS points Ret 0% 0/300000, started with 425 WCS points Shuttle T 0% 0/300000, started with 400 WCS points Bunny 0% 0/300000, started with 400 WCS points FanTaSy 0% 0/300000, started with 375 WCS points YugiOh 0% 0/300000, started with 375 WCS points Curious 0% 0/300000, started with 375 WCS points Bly 0% 0/300000, started with 375 WCS points Strelok 0% 0/300000, started with 350 WCS points theognis 0% 0/300000, started with 325 WCS points SjoW 0% 0/300000, started with 300 WCS points elfi 0% 0/300000, started with 300 WCS points JangBi 0% 0/300000, started with 275 WCS points TRUE JinAir 0% 0/300000, started with 275 WCS points YoDa IM 0% 0/300000, started with 275 WCS points Sound T 0% 0/300000, started with 250 WCS points CoCa 0% 0/300000, started with 225 WCS points uzer 0% 0/300000, started with 225 WCS points YongHwa 0% 0/300000, started with 225 WCS points Feast 0% 0/300000, started with 225 WCS points State 0% 0/300000, started with 225 WCS points XY 0% 0/300000, started with 225 WCS points EffOrt 0% 0/300000, started with 200 WCS points Creator Prime 0% 0/300000, started with 200 WCS points RagnaroK 0% 0/300000, started with 200 WCS points MarineKing 0% 0/300000, started with 200 WCS points KiLLeR Clarity 0% 0/300000, started with 200 WCS points hellokitty 0% 0/300000, started with 200 WCS points Beastyqt 0% 0/300000, started with 175 WCS points Illusion ROOT 0% 0/300000, started with 175 WCS points Savage 0% 0/300000, started with 175 WCS points Socke 0% 0/300000, started with 175 WCS points qxc 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points Siw 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points Capoch 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points Puzzle 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points Verdi 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points Hurricane 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points Harstem 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points Stats 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points Crazy KT 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points Daisy 0% 0/300000, started with 150 WCS points monchi 0% 0/300000, started with 125 WCS points Maker 0% 0/300000, started with 125 WCS points IdrA 0% 0/300000, started with 125 WCS points Reality 0% 0/300000, started with 125 WCS points Fenix 0% 0/300000, started with 125 WCS points Last STX 0% 0/300000, started with 100 WCS points Tilea 0% 0/300000, started with 100 WCS points BBoongBBoong 0% 0/300000, started with 100 WCS points Dream MVP 0% 0/300000, started with 100 WCS points Noname 0% 0/300000, started with 100 WCS points JYP 0% 0/300000, started with 75 WCS points BlinG 0% 0/300000, started with 75 WCS points Seed 0% 0/300000, started with 75 WCS points MyuNgSiK 0% 0/300000, started with 75 WCS points iaguz 0% 0/300000, started with 75 WCS points Drunkenboi 0% 0/300000, started with 75 WCS points Avenge 0% 0/300000, started with 75 WCS points Pigbaby 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points Swagger 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points ByuN 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points Center 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points ParalyzE 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points Ruin 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points San 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points SeleCT 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points herO CJ 0% 0/300000, started with 50 WCS points MorroW 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points Ian 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points Jogginghose 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points Bunny CJ 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points NightEnD 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points Sonder 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points Trust 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points Xenocider 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points DarkHydra 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points Bischu 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points Bang 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points Bails 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points AlaStOr 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points SonGDuri 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points Golden 0% 0/300000, started with 25 WCS points TurN 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Pet 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points s2 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points sC 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Shark Samsung 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points sKyHigh 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Sniper 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Solar 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Sparta 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Terminator 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points ZerO 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points VINES 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Noblesse 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Mamuri 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points LabyRinth 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Kop 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points JuNi 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Journey 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Hydra 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Dark 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Billowy 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Balloon 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points Argo 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points ALBM 0% 0/300000, started with 0 WCS points + Show Spoiler [point cutoffs] + 0.264% of the time 2600 WCS points is enough to qualify 3.84733% of the time 2700 WCS points is enough to qualify 14.225% of the time 2800 WCS points is enough to qualify 25.2323% of the time 2900 WCS points is enough to qualify 43.3423% of the time 3000 WCS points is enough to qualify 57.4237% of the time 3050 WCS points is enough to qualify 69.3907% of the time 3100 WCS points is enough to qualify 72.5907% of the time 3105 WCS points is enough to qualify 73.7887% of the time 3125 WCS points is enough to qualify 75.6743% of the time 3150 WCS points is enough to qualify 78.9523% of the time 3200 WCS points is enough to qualify 87.614% of the time 3300 WCS points is enough to qualify 93.5893% of the time 3400 WCS points is enough to qualify 97.214% of the time 3500 WCS points is enough to qualify 99.809% of the time 3600 WCS points is enough to qualify 99.9653% of the time 3700 WCS points is enough to qualify 99.9977% of the time 3800 WCS points is enough to qualify 99.9997% of the time 3900 WCS points is enough to qualify 100% of the time 4000 WCS points is enough to qualify | ||
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Sandermatt
Switzerland1365 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17588 Posts
On September 15 2013 08:11 Sandermatt wrote: It would be interessting to know the combined chance that any foreigner qualifies. it actually looks pretty good, Scarlett + Naniwa alone is over 55%, but I don't know how many of those instances are mutually exclusive(example, they can't BOTH win WCS S3 finals). Then you also have Empire Happy at ~18.7%, Vortix at ~17.2%, and a but of other below that. | ||
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Sandermatt
Switzerland1365 Posts
On September 15 2013 08:24 Die4Ever wrote: it actually looks pretty good, Scarlett + Naniwa alone is over 55%, but I don't know how many of those instances are mutually exclusive(example, they can't BOTH win WCS S3 finals). Then you also have Empire Happy at ~18.7%, Vortix at ~17.2%, and a but of other below that. Well, chances cannot simple be added up. For example if two players had a 50% chance to qualify. The combined chance would be 75% not 100% (if they are not exclusive), There is still a 25 % chance that both fail. Is there a way to directly read this data from the simulation results to include all correlation (not two players winning the same tournament) effects? | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17588 Posts
On September 15 2013 08:31 Sandermatt wrote: Well, chances cannot simple be added up. For example if two players had a 50% chance to qualify. The combined chance would be 75% not 100%, Yea that's why I said I don't know how much of it is mutually exclusive. In your example you cannot say for sure if 50%+50% = 75%, cause what if they're facing each other in the round of 32 in WCS AM and all they need is to make ro16 to qualify? Then it's 50% for each player, 100% one of them will make it. But then again there are other examples that would have different combined probabilities. No way to tell really unless I write the code to figure it out. | ||
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KillerDucky
United States498 Posts
Scarlett 32.4% Naniwa 23.1% Happy 18.7% Voritx 17.2% Welmu 13.3% Nerchio 10.1% ---- cut here cuz I'm lazy 69.7% chance that at least one of the above gets in. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17588 Posts
On September 15 2013 10:29 KillerDucky wrote: Well just assuming they are independently random, I get: Scarlett 32.4% Naniwa 23.1% Happy 18.7% Voritx 17.2% Welmu 13.3% Nerchio 10.1% ---- cut here cuz I'm lazy 69.7% chance that at least one of the above gets in. It's probably closer to 30%. Keep in mind most of the chances come from the season finals, so they would have to make top 5/6 in their region. Only so many people can do that. | ||
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KillerDucky
United States498 Posts
On September 15 2013 10:32 Die4Ever wrote: It's probably closer to 30%. Keep in mind most of the chances come from the season finals, so they would have to make top 5/6 in their region. Only so many people can do that. I would assume the actual chance would be higher, not lower. If they don't play each other directly it will be similar to independent events. If they do play each other directly then it becomes similar to your 50% + 50% = 100% example -- the probability will go up. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17588 Posts
On September 15 2013 11:14 KillerDucky wrote: I would assume the actual chance would be higher, not lower. If they don't play each other directly it will be similar to independent events. If they do play each other directly then it becomes similar to your 50% + 50% = 100% example -- the probability will go up. Yea you're right haha, ok so there is likely some overlap so it won't be the full 69%, maybe 50% if I had to guess. | ||
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chuky500
France473 Posts
Also it'd be great if the "what if" scenarios were less big. Like if I click Forgg all the scenarios are placing high and give him a 100% chance. It would be cool he we saw his chances for finishing top 16 instead of 1st. | ||
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opisska
Poland8852 Posts
On September 15 2013 03:45 Yonnua wrote: WCS EU doesn't have up and downs, it has a 2 stage challenger division. The first stage is a bracket for immediate qualification to premier. Everybody else is seeded in to the group stage based on performance. Ret didn't win his bracket so he dropped to the group stage. In the group stage he finished last, making him 33rd-40th. WCS KR does have up and downs and they don't give WCS points. All challenger points in WCS KR are based on the bracket stage, because up and downs aren't part of the WCS system. What is the practical difference between Challenger group stage and Up and downs? Don't they do the same thing? Also, lol at the DH, where almost none of the people who actually needed the points went past group stage. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17588 Posts
On September 15 2013 17:38 chuky500 wrote: You should have less spoilers showing the results. The first 16 players are qualified but if I want to see the first 16 predicted players I have to click 3 spoilers, and it will only show 19 which is not even enough for those with reasonable chances. Also it'd be great if the "what if" scenarios were less big. Like if I click Forgg all the scenarios are placing high and give him a 100% chance. It would be cool he we saw his chances for finishing top 16 instead of 1st. Yea this was bothering me too. I already fixed #1 for the next version. I hope to fix #2 as well. | ||
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Yonnua
United Kingdom2331 Posts
On September 15 2013 17:46 opisska wrote: What is the practical difference between Challenger group stage and Up and downs? Don't they do the same thing? Also, lol at the DH, where almost none of the people who actually needed the points went past group stage. Practically they do the same thing, but why were you expecting sense and congruence from the WCS system? | ||
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