EPT
Being able to track the WCS progress really makes stuff that much more interesting.Blizzcon qualification probabilities simulation - Page 10
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opisska
Poland8852 Posts
Being able to track the WCS progress really makes stuff that much more interesting. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17725 Posts
On September 16 2013 17:38 NarutO wrote: Hello! Thank you for your work, I think this is amazing and a great information to the community. Is there any chance that your program can also visually draw the way of failing to qualify? Just for the lulz? Like the poster above me mentioned SoulKey has a 0.0001% Chance to fail, in your program there are 300000 simulations/runs , could it show what needs to happen or what happened in those 3 that he failed? ^^ The problem with this is that it's such a large amount of crazy events that it would be difficult for the program to summarize. I made an old post similar to this for Mvp in his fanclub that shows how ridiculous it is, and Mvp has lower chances than Soulkey. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=19629434 | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17725 Posts
On September 16 2013 22:34 Roblin wrote: personally I would like to have them sorted by how likely they are to happen. Im much more interested in the event that happens 30% of the time and improves the chances from 10% to 20% than the event that happens 0.001% of the time and improves the chances from 10% to 100% It sounds like people are kinda split on which way it should be sorted. I think I'll try out a mixed sorting method for the next one. | ||
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iMAniaC
Norway703 Posts
On September 16 2013 22:25 Aquanim wrote: @iMAniaC: Two possibilities occur to me: 1) Dumb luck. Perhaps the dice happened to fall poorly for Polt/Soulkey when the Aligulac probabilities were used. 2) I imagine the only possibility where Polt/Soulkey don't make it is where a number of other players ALL somehow make just the right number of points to beat them. With regard to the probability of that eventuality, Polt and Soulkey's skills aren't as 'important' in some sense as the skills of all of those other players who need to go a long way in whatever tournament. Taking the skills of all those other players into account might increase their probability of getting enough points to beat out Soulkey. On September 16 2013 22:40 Ghanburighan wrote: You're assuming that it only depends on games where SK and Polt play, but it actually depends on how a whole lot of other players do. When everyone else is equal, less skilled players have a higher statistical probability of scoring major tournament wins. Aaah, right, of course. Thank you, both of you | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17725 Posts
(This example data was generated without Aligulac and without today's results from WCS AM) Maybe it should force the 100% scenarios to the top? Anyways I gotta go to sleep so I can wake up for GSTL lol, let me know what you guys think. HerO Liquid, 49998/50000, started with 3400 WCS points, 99.996%+ Show Spoiler [I F Game Changers] + ----ThorZaIN gets 8th place in IEM ----MC gets 4th place in IEM ----Maru Prime gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 0.01% of the time. When it does, it changes HerO Liquid's ch ances to 80%. ----Genius gets 16th place in IEM ----HyuN gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals ----MC gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.032% of the time. When it does, it changes HerO Liquid's c hances to 87.5%. ----ThorZaIN gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals ----HyuN gets 2nd place in America Premier ----HerO Liquid gets 16th place in America Premier This happens 0.024% of the time. When it does, it changes HerO Liquid's c hances to 91.6667%. ----Top CN gets 2nd place in IEM ----CranK Axiom gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 0.036% of the time. When it does, it changes HerO Liquid's c hances to 94.4444%. ----Minigun gets 8th place in IEM ----Scarlett gets 1st place in IEM This happens 0.04% of the time. When it does, it changes HerO Liquid's ch ances to 95%. ----TheStC gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.066% of the time. When it does, it changes HerO Liquid's c hances to 96.9697%. ----HuK gets 1st place in IEM ----TaeJa gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.066% of the time. When it does, it changes HerO Liquid's c hances to 96.9697%. ----Heart gets 4th place in IEM ----Apocalypse gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.088% of the time. When it does, it changes HerO Liquid's c hances to 97.7273%. ----HyuN gets 1st place in America Premier ----KrasS gets 2nd place in Europe Placement This happens 0.094% of the time. When it does, it changes HerO Liquid's c hances to 97.8723%. ----MC gets 4th place in Season 3 Finals ----aLive gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.108% of the time. When it does, it changes HerO Liquid's c hances to 98.1481%. ----MC gets 4th place in IEM ----Maru Prime gets 1st place in Korea Premier This happens 0.158% of the time. When it does, it changes HerO Liquid's c hances to 98.7342%. ----Genius gets 16th place in IEM ----HyuN gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.378% of the time. When it does, it changes HerO Liquid's c hances to 98.9418%. ----HyuN gets 2nd place in America Premier ----HerO Liquid gets 16th place in America Premier This happens 0.886% of the time. When it does, it changes HerO Liquid's c hances to 99.7743%. ----Scarlett gets 1st place in IEM This happens 1.066% of the time. When it does, it changes HerO Liquid's c hances to 99.8124%. ----Flash KT gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.954% of the time. When it does, it changes HerO Liquid's c hances to 99.8976%. ----MC gets 4th place in IEM This happens 2.086% of the time. When it does, it changes HerO Liquid's c hances to 99.9041%. ----HyuN gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 4.582% of the time. When it does, it changes HerO Liquid's c hances to 99.9127%. ----HyuN gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 3.094% of the time. When it does, it changes HerO Liquid's c hances to 99.9354%. ----CranK Axiom gets 1st place in America Premier This happens 3.106% of the time. When it does, it changes HerO Liquid's c hances to 99.9356%. ----HuK gets 1st place in IEM This happens 3.24% of the time. When it does, it changes HerO Liquid's ch ances to 99.9383%. MC, 9512/50000, started with 2275 WCS points, 19.024%+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Cha ngers] + ----MC gets 8th place or better in Season 3 Finals This happens 7.81% of the time. When it does, it changes MC's chances to 100%. ----MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 7.992% of the time. When it does, it changes MC's chances to 98.974%. ----MC gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 6.484% of the time. When it does, it changes MC's chances to 99.8149%. ----MC gets 2nd place or better in Europe Premier This happens 6.298% of the time. When it does, it changes MC's chances to 100%. ----MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----MC gets 4th place in Europe Premier This happens 3.272% of the time. When it does, it changes MC's chances to 99.6333%. ----MC gets 1st place in Europe Placement ----MC gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 3.02% of the time. When it does, it changes MC's chances to 97.6821%. ----MC gets 8th place or better in IEM ----MC gets 4th place or better in Europe Premier This happens 0.524% of the time. When it does, it changes MC's chances to 100%. ----MC gets 8th place or better in IEM ----MC gets 16th place or better in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.498% of the time. When it does, it changes MC's chances to 100%. ----MC gets 8th place or better in IEM ----MC gets 16th place or better in Season 3 Finals ----MC gets 8th place or better in Europe Premier This happens 0.366% of the time. When it does, it changes MC's chances to 100%. ----MC gets 8th place or better in IEM ----MC gets 1st place in Europe Placement ----MC gets 8th place or better in Europe Premier This happens 0.21% of the time. When it does, it changes MC's chances to 100%. ----MC gets 1st place in IEM ----MC gets 8th place or better in Europe Premier This happens 0.122% of the time. When it does, it changes MC's chances to 100%. ----MC gets 8th place or better in IEM ----MC gets 16th place or better in Season 3 Finals ----MC gets 1st place in Europe Placement ----MC gets 8th place or better in Europe Premier This happens 0.1% of the time. When it does, it changes MC's chances to [ b]100%. ----MC gets 2nd place or better in IEM ----MC gets 1st place in Europe Placement This happens 0.07% of the time. When it does, it changes MC's chances to 100%. ----MC gets 2nd place or better in IEM ----MC gets 16th place or better in Season 3 Finals ----MC gets 1st place in Europe Placement This happens 0.03% of the time. When it does, it changes MC's chances to 100%. ----MC gets 4th place in IEM ----MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.17% of the time. When it does, it changes MC's chances to 98.8235%. ----MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----MC gets 1st place in Europe Placement ----MC gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 1.528% of the time. When it does, it changes MC's chances to 95.4188%. ----MC gets 4th place in IEM ----MC gets 1st place in Europe Placement ----MC gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.058% of the time. When it does, it changes MC's chances to 96.5517%. ----MC gets 1st place in IEM ----MC gets 16th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.254% of the time. When it does, it changes MC's chances to 94.4882%. ----MC gets 4th place in IEM ----MC gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----MC gets 1st place in Europe Placement ----MC gets 8th place in Europe Premier This happens 0.036% of the time. When it does, it changes MC's chances to 94.4444%. ----MC gets 1st place in IEM This happens 1.094% of the time. When it does, it changes MC's chances to 89.7623%. | ||
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slowbacontron
United States7722 Posts
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[F_]aths
Germany3947 Posts
On September 13 2013 20:50 Die4Ever wrote: The number of past events does not justify a probability calculation with four decimal places.I've been working on a program that calculates each players' chances of going to Blizzcon. It works by running hundreds of thousands of simulations of the tournament brackets using Monte Carlo method(wikipedia it) with the help of Aligulac ratings. Not only does it give % chances, but it also lists events that help or hurt that player's chances in the details section. ----MMA Acer gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 10.1397% of the time. When it does, it changes his chances to 74.7506%. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17725 Posts
On September 18 2013 00:25 [F_]aths wrote: The number of past events does not justify a probability calculation with four decimal places. You're right, maybe I'll change to 1 or 2. | ||
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NarutO
Germany18839 Posts
On September 17 2013 00:15 Die4Ever wrote: The problem with this is that it's such a large amount of crazy events that it would be difficult for the program to summarize. I made an old post similar to this for Mvp in his fanclub that shows how ridiculous it is, and Mvp has lower chances than Soulkey. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=19629434 Haha brilliant :-)! Thank you! | ||
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Scones
Wales99 Posts
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Dragoonstorm7
United States599 Posts
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EatThePath
United States3943 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17725 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17725 Posts
I added in information about the next match for each player and how it will affect their chances. This was very hard to figure out before because it didn't show all of the events, so you couldn't add up their chances based on finishing 16th,8th,4th,2nd, and 1st place. (this was run without Aligulac to make it faster) Revival, 243912/300000, started with 2900 WCS points, 81.304%+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] + Revival starts in the round of 32 in America Premier facing Polt, Sage, HyuN Revival loses this match 49.85% of the time, which changes Revival's chances to 71.56%. Revival wins this match 50.15% of the time, which changes Revival's chances to 90.99%. ----Revival gets 16th place or better in Season 3 Finals This happens 18.75% of the time. When it does, it changes Revival's chances to 100.00%. ----Revival gets 4th place or better in America Premier This happens 12.55% of the time. When it does, it changes Revival's chances to 100.00%. ----Revival gets 2nd place or better in America Placement This happens 6.19% of the time. When it does, it changes Revival's chances to 100.00%. ----Revival gets 32nd place in America Premier This happens 49.85% of the time. When it does, it changes Revival's chances to 71.56%. ----Revival gets 8th place in America Premier This happens 12.51% of the time. When it does, it changes Revival's chances to 97.09%. ----Revival gets 1st place in IEM This happens 1.13% of the time. When it does, it changes Revival's chances to 100.00%. ----Revival gets 2nd place in IEM This happens 1.14% of the time. When it does, it changes Revival's chances to 98.16%. ----Revival gets 4th place in America Placement ----Revival gets 8th place in America Premier This happens 6.32% of the time. When it does, it changes Revival's chances to 94.25%. ----Revival gets 4th place in IEM This happens 2.31% of the time. When it does, it changes Revival's chances to 95.18%. ----Revival gets 8th place in IEM This happens 4.55% of the time. When it does, it changes Revival's chances to 92.07%. ----Revival gets 16th place in IEM This happens 9.12% of the time. When it does, it changes Revival's chances to 86.66%. Maru Prime, 128970/300000, started with 2425 WCS points, 42.99%+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] + Maru Prime starts in the round of 16 in Korea Premier facing PartinG, Flash KT, KangHo Maru Prime loses this match 49.88% of the time, which changes Maru Prime's chances to 8.46%. Maru Prime wins this match 50.12% of the time, which changes Maru Prime's chances to 77.36%. ----Maru Prime gets 8th place or better in Season 3 Finals This happens 15.62% of the time. When it does, it changes Maru Prime's chances to 100.00%. ----Maru Prime gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 15.70% of the time. When it does, it changes Maru Prime's chances to 99.41%. ----Maru Prime gets 16th place in Korea Premier This happens 49.88% of the time. When it does, it changes Maru Prime's chances to 8.45%. ----Maru Prime gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 12.58% of the time. When it does, it changes Maru Prime's chances to 100.00%. ----Maru Prime gets 2nd place or better in Korea Premier This happens 12.48% of the time. When it does, it changes Maru Prime's chances to 100.00%. ----Maru Prime gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Maru Prime gets 4th place in Korea Premier This happens 6.28% of the time. When it does, it changes Maru Prime's chances to 99.99%. ----Maru Prime gets 1st place in Korea Placement This happens 6.26% of the time. When it does, it changes Maru Prime's chances to 98.53%. ----Maru Prime gets 16th place in Season 3 Finals ----Maru Prime gets 1st place in Korea Placement This happens 3.16% of the time. When it does, it changes Maru Prime's chances to 97.09%. ----Maru Prime gets 1st place in IEM ----Maru Prime gets 16th place or better in Season 3 Finals This happens 0.18% of the time. When it does, it changes Maru Prime's chances to 100.00%. ----Maru Prime gets 1st place in IEM ----Maru Prime gets 4th place or better in Korea Premier This happens 0.15% of the time. When it does, it changes Maru Prime's chances to 100.00%. ----Maru Prime gets 4th place or better in IEM ----Maru Prime gets 16th place or better in Season 3 Finals ----Maru Prime gets 1st place in Korea Placement This happens 0.07% of the time. When it does, it changes Maru Prime's chances to 100.00%. ----Maru Prime gets 1st place in IEM ----Maru Prime gets 16th place or better in Season 3 Finals ----Maru Prime gets 4th place or better in Korea Premier This happens 0.07% of the time. When it does, it changes Maru Prime's chances to 100.00%. ----Maru Prime gets 1st place in IEM This happens 1.18% of the time. When it does, it changes Maru Prime's chances to 97.71%. ----Maru Prime gets 2nd place in IEM This happens 1.18% of the time. When it does, it changes Maru Prime's chances to 85.94%. ----Maru Prime gets 4th place in IEM This happens 2.28% of the time. When it does, it changes Maru Prime's chances to 68.75%. | ||
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grigorin
Austria275 Posts
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zmsFlood
Finland169 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17725 Posts
I know, it's not gonna happen  NesTea, 11955/300000, started with 600 WCS points, 3.985%+ Show Spoiler [IF Game Changers] + NesTea starts in the round of 32 in America Premier facing Jaedong, ViBE, TheStC NesTea loses this match 50.08% of the time. When it does NesTea's chances change to 0.00%. NesTea wins this match 49.92% of the time. When it does NesTea's chances change to 7.98%. ----NesTea gets 1st place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.17% of the time. When it does, it changes NesTea's chances to 100.00%. ----NesTea gets 2nd place in Season 3 Finals This happens 1.19% of the time. When it does, it changes NesTea's chances to 89.98%. ----NesTea gets 1st place in IEM ----NesTea gets 2nd place in America Placement ----NesTea gets 8th place in America Premier This happens 0.08% of the time. When it does, it changes NesTea's chances to 28.19%. ----NesTea gets 2nd place in America Premier This happens 3.13% of the time. When it does, it changes NesTea's chances to 22.35%. ----NesTea gets 4th place in America Premier This happens 6.22% of the time. When it does, it changes NesTea's chances to 16.30%. ----NesTea gets 8th place in Season 3 Finals This happens 4.62% of the time. When it does, it changes NesTea's chances to 12.78%. ----NesTea gets 2nd place in America Placement This happens 6.20% of the time. When it does, it changes NesTea's chances to 11.19%. ----NesTea gets 1st place in IEM This happens 1.14% of the time. When it does, it changes NesTea's chances to 10.60%. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17725 Posts
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slowbacontron
United States7722 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17725 Posts
On September 19 2013 13:01 slowbacontron wrote: Thanks! The next match consequences are really cool. What does Placement mean? The WCS Placement matches are to determine the 5th and 6th place players, which determines who gets to go to the season finals. My program handles them as a separate tournament since it made it easier for me. 1st place in the placement matches means you got 5th place in that WCS region. 2nd place means 6th place for the region. You can see the placement matches from last season on liquipedia. http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_2_Europe/Premier#Placement_Matches http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_2_Korea_OSL/Premier#Placement_Matches http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2013_WCS_Season_2_America/Premier#Placement_Matches | ||
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