|
Note: This is NOT a balance discussion (personally, I enjoy ZvT match ups the most, even though I am a protoss fan). Just want to provide a thorough mathematical analysis.
A lot of casters talk about why 3-3 marines are pretty good against a Lair Zerg!
Let's look at the numbers and see why:
General Scenario for Lair Tech:
- Mutalisks do not get armor upgrades (most progamers usually go for attack upgrades)
- Mutalisk Regeneration is included, so the DPS against mutalisks will be subtracted by 1.
- For other zerg units regeneration, they are given + 1 hp (zerg units immediately regenerate after taking damage. (Hive units included)
- Best case scenario for zerg on lair tech: 2/2 upgrades for melee units and 2/0 for mutalisks
- Infestors are excluded because their damage are merely complementary and spell-based
Marine Damage Per Second:
+ Show Spoiler +Fully upgraded (w/ stim):
Original DPS: 15.683
Against Unarmored Mutalisks: 14.684 dps
Against 2/2 lings and banelings: 12.197 dps
Time to Kill: Mutalisk (8.17 seconds), 2/2 ling (2.95 seconds), 2/2 baneling (2.54 seconds)
LVL 2 weapons (w/ stim):
Original DPS: 13.940 dps
Against Mutalisks: 12.940 dps
Against 2/2 lings and banelings: 10.455 dps
Time to Kill: Mutalisk (9.27 seconds), 2/2 ling (3.44 seconds), 2/2 baneling (2.97 seconds)
Observations:
- Already a + 1.5 dmg boost after the upgrade!
- Approximately a 20% boost in damage effectiveness against the 2/2 ling/banelings!
- The time decrease to kill: 11.9% for mutalisk, 14.2% for ling, 14.5% for baneling
Armor Analysis:
Note: The actual amount of units required to kill the marine will definitely be greater than I calculated here because the surround does not guarantee the zerg units to attack simultaneously. Without the simultaneous attack, the influence of the medivac healing factor will be greater and would theoretically mitigate some of the damage inflicted by the zerg units.
+ Show Spoiler +Scenario for Every Armor Analysis: - The marine is a pacifist and won't attack the cute happy CARBOT zerg units - Medivac have invented overheal. In other words, it can give extra HP. - Mutalisk Bounce analysis excluded - After the zerg units attack, the marine will immediately be healed. - The goal of the zerg units to kill the marine in 1 second. - The medivac healing will trigger immediately after the attack (+13.5 hp bonus of the marine) ![[image loading]](http://www.swagling.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/zergling_featured.jpg) - The Zerg Units get the PERFECT surround! :D Healing rate of medivac: 13.5 hp/sec (game seconds) Fully upgraded armor (w/ healing from medivac): Against one 2/2 ling: 7.75 OVERHEAL/second How many 2/2 lings required to attack simultaneously: approximately 12 Against 2/2 banelings: 26.5 damage taken/second Against one LVL 2 attack mutalisk: 8.32 OVERHEAL/second How many 2/0 mutalisks required to attack simultaneously: approximately 14 LVL 2 armor (w/ healing from medivac): Against one 2/2 ling: 6.32 OVERHEAL/second How many 2/2 lings required to attack simultaneously: approximately 10 Against 2/2 banelings: 29.5 damage taken/second Against one LVL 2 attack mutalisk: 7.67 OVERHEAL/second How many 2/0 mutalisks required to attack simulateously: approximately 12 Observations: - The number of units required to kill are increased by 2 (approximately 20% increase for zerglings and 16.7% for mutalisks), when the marine gets +1 armor upgrade.
---
Now, let's look at the HIVE Tech!
General Scenario for Hive Tech:
- Best case scenario for zerg on high tech: fully upgraded zerglings/banelings/ultralisks, 3/0 for air units (we rarely see the air 3/3 scenario, unless it is super duper late game)
- Mutalisks are excluded because progamers tend to use hive units at this phase of the game.
- Marines are still 3/3
Marine Damage Per Second:
+ Show Spoiler +Scenario: - Perfect Broodlord control, where marines can't reach the broodlords. (i.e: Broodlords are excluded in this part of the analysis) Against 5/3 ultralisks: 5.23 dps Against 4/3 ultralisks: 6.97 dps Against 3/3 lings/banelings: 10.455 dps Time to Kill for 3/3: ultralisk ( 95.8 seconds), 3/3 ling (3.44 seconds), 3/3 baneling (2.97 seconds) Time to Kill for 2/2:ultralisk ( 71.9 seconds) ling (2.95 seconds), baneling (2.54 seconds) Observations: ![[image loading]](http://distilleryimage0.s3.amazonaws.com/a5fea1468a4b11e2a76e22000a9f1968_6.jpg) - Ultralisks are great tanking units against marines! - Time to Kill increase from zerg LVL 2/2 to 3/3: 33.2% (ultralisks), 16.6% (lings), 16.9% (banelings)
Armor Analysis:
+ Show Spoiler + Against one 3/3 Ultralisk: 38.1 damage taken/ second
Against one 3/3 Broodlord: 24.9 damage taken + 1.1 OVERHEAL/second
Against one 3/3 Broodlord (average damage): 8.1 damage taken/second
Against 3/3 cracklings: 4.98 OVERHEAL/second
Amount of 3/3 crackling required to attack simultaneously: Approximately 9
Observations:
- Hive tech units can eat up 3/3 marines supported by medivacs
- Amount of lings required to kill decreased by 3, when cracklings are researched!
TLDR: As a zerg, NEVER EVER settle with Lair tech, even if you have a huge lead! 3/3 marines are very powerful in the middle-late game. Get your hive tech to reach to the late game phase! So, no more balance whining about marines please!
EDIT: Also, we can argue about how Widow Mines and Marauders still cause major problems, which I can relate. However, this thread is meant to focus mainly on marines, which is arguably one of the most cost-effective units in the game.
|
hm, i never heard casters specifically talking about 3/3 vs lair, but rather "3/3 vs ling bling muta". i always wondered why 3/3 terran would be so special against 3/3 zerg. it makes no sense to me at all.
|
On August 12 2013 14:47 beg wrote:
hm, i never heard casters specifically talking about 3/3 vs lair, but rather "3/3 vs ling bling muta". i always wondered why 3/3 terran would be so special against 3/3 zerg. it makes no sense to me at all.
Their DPS is so fast and that extra boost makes everything just die so quick :[
Just go around and drop 4 marauders sniping hatches like their creep tumors haha
|
Yes! WoL style 12 minute brood lords! I miss the good ole' days.. nice write up! Always nice to see someone that goes really indepth with the math behind it.
|
The issue is more that all terran players do is try to get super aggressive right when the zerg would like to go Hive, they never feel safe buying upgrades/tech because they have to keep making banelings.
I think it goes without saying that the longer a game is, the more important it is to finish your upgrades. Finding the money to do it at the right times is easier said than done.
|
On August 12 2013 15:02 darkscream wrote:
The issue is more that all terran players do is try to get super aggressive right when the zerg would like to go Hive, they never feel safe buying upgrades/tech because they have to keep making banelings.
I think it goes without saying that the longer a game is, the more important it is to finish your upgrades. Finding the money to do it at the right times is easier said than done.
Yeah, I noticed that. Terran players like Innovation and Polt utilize constant aggression to prevent zerg players from reaching the hive comfortably. However, there are some instances such as Jaedong vs. Polt and Soulkey vs. Innovation (one proleague match before the GSL finals) when the zerg players stayed on Lair tech for too long.
However, terran players are aggressive during the 2/2 phase, so zerg should learn how to balance teching and defend.
|
On August 12 2013 14:47 beg wrote:
hm, i never heard casters specifically talking about 3/3 vs lair, but rather "3/3 vs ling bling muta". i always wondered why 3/3 terran would be so special against 3/3 zerg. it makes no sense to me at all.
In general, Zergs need a hive to get 3/3 so terrans will almost always get 3/3 first. So its a pretty obvious timing window to do major damage. Also in reality 3/3 wrecks roach hydra if the Zerg is behind on the upgrades too so its not specific to ling/bane/muta. Although with mutas, zergs typically only get attack upgrades so the marine upgrades rip them apart especially quick.
|
On August 12 2013 14:47 beg wrote:
hm, i never heard casters specifically talking about 3/3 vs lair, but rather "3/3 vs ling bling muta". i always wondered why 3/3 terran would be so special against 3/3 zerg. it makes no sense to me at all.
in SC2, some units can bypass upgrade disadvantage. Widow mines, the pre nerf hellbats (can always deal with 3/3 zealots very well even if they are only 0/0), spells such as storms and fungals.
3/3 bio is stronger than (and much more cost efficient) 3/3 zerg should not be that surprising because zerg has fungal. (which is still kinda dealable by the terran with the power of medivac)
The problem of cause, is that infestors nowadays are just not what they used to be in WoL and muta is almost needed to stay alive from the drops, make it harder to get to hive tech
|
In today's series between Jaedong and Polt, there was one game where JD went ling bane infestor into quick hive and quick 3/3 upgrades. He survived the longest vs Polt in that game because he was 3/3 on ground vs 2/2. When Polt caught up to 3/3 JD started falling apart.
Ling bane muta gets stuck around 2/2 because you don't already have an infestor pit, and you don't need as many infestors as mutas. Infestors recharge energy and mutas regen health, but it is easier to lose a muta here and there to marines as it is infestors which should stay in the back. Infestors may cost more per unit, but over 10 minutes of back and forth, zerg probably makes a lot more muta. Also, a good fungal can make your banelings much more cost effective since it denies splitting. But of course, with infestors, it's harder to keep the medivac numbers down, unless they clump and you get a nice chain fungal off.
But you kind of need mutas due to the threat of drops.
Also armor is useless against mines, they do spell damage.
There's no magical counter, you just need to be better than your opponent it seems.
|
Yep just like Innovation and SK during SPL Finals.
|
I think there a lot of misunderstanding on what is going on. I am specifically focusing on 3/3 marines.
Widow Mines and Marauders are a completely different matter. (Although I am inclined to believe that widows could use some reworking because widow mines are actually hindering zerg units from making correct engagements, even with the creep advantage).
As for the balancing, yes, it's true how zerg is having a hard time at the moment. But for now, let's just give the meta some time to develop before we argue what's overpowered.
This analysis was meant to hopefully provide a possible solution for the zerg's problem against 3/3.
|
On August 12 2013 15:19 FakeDouble wrote:
In today's series between Jaedong and Polt, there was one game where JD went ling bane infestor into quick hive and quick 3/3 upgrades. He survived the longest vs Polt in that game because he was 3/3 on ground vs 2/2. When Polt caught up to 3/3 JD started falling apart.
Ling bane muta gets stuck around 2/2 because you don't already have an infestor pit, and you don't need as many infestors as mutas. Infestors recharge energy and mutas regen health, but it is easier to lose a muta here and there to marines as it is infestors which should stay in the back. Infestors may cost more per unit, but over 10 minutes of back and forth, zerg probably makes a lot more muta. But of course, with infestors, it's harder to keep the medivac numbers down, unless they clump and you get a nice chain fungal off.
Also armor is useless against mines, they do spell damage.
The worst part about Infestors is trying to deal with drops... that's an absolute nightmare unless you are really superb at multitasking. The Medivac count starts accumulating (very bad!), and Zerg loses the harassment utility of Mutalisks. The trade-off is that you can have more gas, especially if you invest in some static defense.
- Mutalisks
- Infestors
- 3/3 Upgrades
- Ultralisks
In the end, Zerg players probably need all four of those, but perhaps the order may be shifted around. Perhaps it would be cool to get out a couple of Infestors (to delay the push), and get Hive ASAP. Then, while Hive is done, get your 3/3 upgrades and throw down a Spire... only then do you get Mutalisks. Then finally you get Ultralisks?
|
Only Scarlett and Suppy (foreigners, oddly enough) regularly get a good hive timing vs terran, and try their best to get ultras and 3/3 out, Roro does a decent job at it too, but he has trouble holding a 4th on most maps. Zergs just about always have at least 100 gas floating, just drop an infestation pit! It's so common zergs start their 2/2 before the terran, but terran finish 3/3 before the zerg even has a fester pit down. You can give excuses, but you can't seriously tell me the zerg needed every single bit of gas throughout the entire game. If he spends 100 gas on a pit, instead of 1 mutalisk, he's not going to lose the game.
It takes a hell of a long time for zerg to get access to 3/3, don't wait til 2/2 is finished to start your fester pit.
|
I guess, ideally zerg wants more than 8 geysers then vs endless bio mine parade? That means taking a 5th just for gas and keeping it alive though which can be a tough ask.
Edit: zenbrez makes a good argument. It's 150 for infestor pit and 150 for hive so it's 3 mutas, but similar idea.
|
On August 12 2013 15:23 hansonslee wrote:
I think there a lot of misunderstanding on what is going on. I am specifically focusing on 3/3 marines.
Widow Mines and Marauders are a completely different matter. (Although I am inclined to believe that widows could use some reworking because widow mines are actually hindering zerg units from making correct engagements, even with the creep advantage).
As for the balancing, yes, it's true how zerg is having a hard time at the moment. But for now, let's just give the meta some time to develop before we argue what's overpowered.
This analysis was meant to hopefully provide a possible solution for the zerg's problem against 3/3.
But there are not only 3/3 marines, also marauders.
Ulralisks are not the ultimate solution in this case. A superior economy is still key which nowadays zerg players are struggled to get.
|
China6329 Posts
Yeah I was thinking about is it Jaedong's super late Hive and 3/3 that cost him 4 games in a row? But on the other hand, it seems he never actually got the spare money to spend on Infestation Pit and Hive because Polt was so aggressive that he can't spend resources on things other than lings and banes.
|
On August 12 2013 15:30 Zenbrez wrote:
Only Scarlett and Suppy (foreigners, oddly enough) regularly get a good hive timing vs terran, and try their best to get ultras and 3/3 out, Roro does a decent job at it too, but he has trouble holding a 4th on most maps. Zergs just about always have at least 100 gas floating, just drop an infestation pit! It's so common zergs start their 2/2 before the terran, but terran finish 3/3 before the zerg even has a fester pit down. You can give excuses, but you can't seriously tell me the zerg needed every single bit of gas throughout the entire game. If he spends 100 gas on a pit, instead of 1 mutalisk, he's not going to lose the game.
It takes a hell of a long time for zerg to get access to 3/3, don't wait til 2/2 is finished to start your fester pit.
You need a Hive for 3/3 upgrades. That's a completed infestation pit plus the time it takes for the hive to morph. Then you can start the upgrades. Terran just needs an armory which incidentally they already have if they have +2/2. So no, it's not so simple as having 100 gas lying around.
|
On August 12 2013 15:30 Zenbrez wrote:
Only Scarlett and Suppy (foreigners, oddly enough) regularly get a good hive timing vs terran, and try their best to get ultras and 3/3 out, Roro does a decent job at it too, but he has trouble holding a 4th on most maps. Zergs just about always have at least 100 gas floating, just drop an infestation pit! It's so common zergs start their 2/2 before the terran, but terran finish 3/3 before the zerg even has a fester pit down. You can give excuses, but you can't seriously tell me the zerg needed every single bit of gas throughout the entire game. If he spends 100 gas on a pit, instead of 1 mutalisk, he's not going to lose the game.
It takes a hell of a long time for zerg to get access to 3/3, don't wait til 2/2 is finished to start your fester pit.
You are totally disregarding total gas cost of
Infestor pit
Hive
3/3 upgrade
crackling
That is a lot of gas that otherwise might lead to you dying.
|
is there a reason protoss and terran do not need another tech path for +3? Zerg has to add on two buildings.. one of them being completely useless
|
On August 12 2013 15:27 Entirety wrote:Show nested quote +On August 12 2013 15:19 FakeDouble wrote:
In today's series between Jaedong and Polt, there was one game where JD went ling bane infestor into quick hive and quick 3/3 upgrades. He survived the longest vs Polt in that game because he was 3/3 on ground vs 2/2. When Polt caught up to 3/3 JD started falling apart.
Ling bane muta gets stuck around 2/2 because you don't already have an infestor pit, and you don't need as many infestors as mutas. Infestors recharge energy and mutas regen health, but it is easier to lose a muta here and there to marines as it is infestors which should stay in the back. Infestors may cost more per unit, but over 10 minutes of back and forth, zerg probably makes a lot more muta. But of course, with infestors, it's harder to keep the medivac numbers down, unless they clump and you get a nice chain fungal off.
Also armor is useless against mines, they do spell damage. The worst part about Infestors is trying to deal with drops... that's an absolute nightmare unless you are really superb at multitasking. The Medivac count starts accumulating (very bad!), and Zerg loses the harassment utility of Mutalisks. The trade-off is that you can have more gas, especially if you invest in some static defense. - Mutalisks - Infestors - 3/3 Upgrades - Ultralisks In the end, Zerg players probably need all four of those, but perhaps the order may be shifted around. Perhaps it would be cool to get out a couple of Infestors (to delay the push), and get Hive ASAP. Then, while Hive is done, get your 3/3 upgrades and throw down a Spire... only then do you get Mutalisks. Then finally you get Ultralisks?
I was wondering the same actually...
What if zerg wanted to get safely to 3/3 thanks to infestors (so they are on 3-4 bases, you can defend without muta)
And then, throw down a spire, upgrade mutalisks and add them to get a ~25 muta ball. Its pretty easy on 4/5 bases mining gas, especially if you already have your infestors...
The other good point is that terran players will start adding marauders very early on once they see you are rushing Hive, and muta are the best answer to marauders in this matchup.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
