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On July 05 2013 06:15 iky43210 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2013 05:12 TheRabidDeer wrote:
I am confused, I thought the most recent winrates reported were pretty even across the board? I know what you posted is how it feels, but is it accurate? its not accurate, he is totally bullshitting and cherry picking his data. This is Korea only win rates (international looks even more balanced) http://i.imgur.com/0ciWmTd.png Not "only PL RO 6, finals of WCS (all 6 matches of it), during raining days and only innovations" arbitrary picked data.
Also there was an enormous number of zergs in some of those tournaments like WCS season 2. There is nothing wrong with one race losing a lot more, if the initial distribution was so skewed. Ro32 was zerg dominated regarding distribution, Ro16 is much more evenly distributed. Zergs might have lost more, but there were more zergs as well.
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On July 05 2013 06:15 iky43210 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2013 05:12 TheRabidDeer wrote:
I am confused, I thought the most recent winrates reported were pretty even across the board? I know what you posted is how it feels, but is it accurate? its not accurate, he is totally bullshitting and cherry picking his data. This is Korea only win rates (international looks even more balanced) http://i.imgur.com/0ciWmTd.png Not "only PL RO 6, finals of WCS (all 6 matches of it), during raining days and only innovations" arbitrary picked data.
mine is stat of the highest level leagues from last 30 days or so
zerg/ protoss are not doing well at the top level
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On July 05 2013 06:15 iky43210 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2013 05:12 TheRabidDeer wrote:
I am confused, I thought the most recent winrates reported were pretty even across the board? I know what you posted is how it feels, but is it accurate? its not accurate, he is totally bullshitting and cherry picking his data. This is Korea only win rates (international looks even more balanced) http://i.imgur.com/0ciWmTd.png Not "only PL RO 6, finals of WCS (all 6 matches of it), during raining days and only innovations" arbitrary picked data.
give me your source please?
I am on both korean/english forums and before Rain qualified, Terran had 11 game winsteak vs toss in Korea and it's been quite controversial as to how terran is overperforming at the highest level. honestly I'm surprsied by your win rates data and how people on TL don't even mention terran's winsteak, which makes me think protoss imba stat is probably including lower level leagues as well.
and I just copied/pasted from a thread in playxp.In korea, overall consensus seem to suggest that most fans don't consider Europe/America WCS results significant and they tend to ignore GSTL or deem it as a lower level proleauge due to Kespa players dominating in indivisual leagues, probably that's why the stat don't include some of leagues Koreans generally view as of 'lower level'. Most people's been complaining how Terran is overperforming in Korean forums.
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don't know how taht was computed but considering there are months with 1000 games in one MU it includes foreign scene as well?
ps. ok I can limit search to korean scene only though that graph is not available with search function. thanks.
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so here it goes... using your website which seems accurate.
WCS 2013 Season 2 Korea Premier
PvT
5–9 (36%)
PvZ
8–6 (57%)
TvZ
8–1 (89%)
Terran absolutely crushing Z and P at the highest level WCS (up/down qualifier exlucded)
Proleague 2012-2013 Season 1 Round 6
PvT
11–12 (48%)
PvZ
16–16 (50%)
TvZ
9–6 (60%)
Terran still killing Z in the most recent proleauge
GSTL 2013 Season 1 Group Stage Week 13
PvT
1–4 (20%)
PvZ
2–0 (100%)
TvZ
2–1 (67%)
week 12
PvT
0–1 (0%)
PvZ
1–2 (33%)
TvZ
3–2 (60%)
week 11
PvT
3–1 (75%)
PvZ
1–2 (33%)
TvZ
2–1 (67%)
week 10
PvT
2–3 (40%)
PvZ
1–0 (100%)
TvZ
0–1 (0%)
I didn't cut WCS and Proleauge by 1 month but from these stats you can see that Terran is doing very well in the highest leagues of Korea.
I still don't know how one of above posters came up with P imba stat. I don't think including qualifiers count because there is a higher league format and unlike proleagues low-level progs can complete in qualifers and up/downs. They are code A and B level gamers.
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On July 05 2013 13:51 highsis wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2013 06:15 iky43210 wrote:On July 05 2013 05:12 TheRabidDeer wrote:
I am confused, I thought the most recent winrates reported were pretty even across the board? I know what you posted is how it feels, but is it accurate? its not accurate, he is totally bullshitting and cherry picking his data. This is Korea only win rates (international looks even more balanced) http://i.imgur.com/0ciWmTd.png Not "only PL RO 6, finals of WCS (all 6 matches of it), during raining days and only innovations" arbitrary picked data. mine is stat of the highest level leagues from last 30 days or so zerg/ protoss are not doing well at the top level
Get it into your head ... SMALL SAMPLE SIZE (like yours) does NOT make a valid "statistic". The only thing you can do with that is shove it into the trash because it is NOT representative of the races. The skill of certain individuals, the "getting knocked out by lesser players" of certain other individuals shifts the balance in such a tiny community wildly around. There is also the "I didnt get to play against player X whom I can beat easily but rather met player Y who trashes me" part of any such tournament.
All your "statistics" prove nothing and are completely utterly worthless.
----
If you honestly want to "prove" something with a statistic you also need to work on your "presentation" of the data.
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On July 05 2013 14:36 Rabiator wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2013 13:51 highsis wrote:On July 05 2013 06:15 iky43210 wrote:On July 05 2013 05:12 TheRabidDeer wrote:
I am confused, I thought the most recent winrates reported were pretty even across the board? I know what you posted is how it feels, but is it accurate? its not accurate, he is totally bullshitting and cherry picking his data. This is Korea only win rates (international looks even more balanced) http://i.imgur.com/0ciWmTd.png Not "only PL RO 6, finals of WCS (all 6 matches of it), during raining days and only innovations" arbitrary picked data. mine is stat of the highest level leagues from last 30 days or so zerg/ protoss are not doing well at the top level Get it into your head ... SMALL SAMPLE SIZE (like yours) does NOT make a valid "statistic". The only thing you can do with that is shove it into the trash because it is NOT representative of the races. The skill of certain individuals, the "getting knocked out by lesser players" of certain other individuals shifts the balance in such a tiny community wildly around. There is also the "I didnt get to play against player X whom I can beat easily but rather met player Y who trashes me" part of any such tournament. All your "statistics" prove nothing and are completely utterly worthless. ---- If you honestly want to "prove" something with a statistic you also need to work on your "presentation" of the data.
well yes I copy/pasted and if the stat was flawed my opinion's premise was flawed to begin with. I did it again with the post before this. you can derive whatever conclusion you want yourself.
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It would be nice if the people who want to nerf terran into the ground would find some kind of concensus. At one side you have the people who claim that only at the highest level people can counter the new terran units, so it is unbalanced for the 'normal' player (lets say everything from gold to masters). At the other hand you have people like highsis who claim it is unbalanced for only the top 30 or so players in the world. A completely arbitrary line only chosen so you can cherrypick statistically insignificant data of course. But which one is should we now be worried about? That it is unbalanced for everyone who isn't a pro, or that it is unbalanced for the top few players.
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On July 05 2013 14:55 Sissors wrote:
It would be nice if the people who want to nerf terran into the ground would find some kind of concensus. At one side you have the people who claim that only at the highest level people can counter the new terran units, so it is unbalanced for the 'normal' player (lets say everything from gold to masters). At the other hand you have people like highsis who claim it is unbalanced for only the top 30 or so players in the world. A completely arbitrary line only chosen so you can cherrypick statistically insignificant data of course. But which one is should we now be worried about? That it is unbalanced for everyone who isn't a pro, or that it is unbalanced for the top few players.
How's GSTL - Proleague - WCS premier 'arbritrary'? and I assure you, it's much more than 30 players, and
and there are leagues of difference between players from the above leauges and any other leagues. qualifier is basically code a, and up/down is equivalent to code b. foreign WCSs are much less competitive, so none of those results including foreign/qulaifer/up and down translate to the state of balance at the highest skill cap, and even if my stat doesn't indicate absoulte inbaance ,those over 50 or so games in each MU at least gives a hint of which race is overperforming these days at the highest level: terran.
So yes, DK has constantly stated that the balance should be centred on the highest level of play. If we are to discuss balance on that level, I think my data is much more accurate than anything that includes foreign scenes and code A/B level gamers.
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Highsis, There are so few games in your sample size it's entirely meaningless. You're supposed to have that much variation! Try coin-flipping the same number of times per MU, do you get 50%? No, right. But the coin is obviously balanced. The variation is due to the fact that the sample needs to be larger.
You're reporting 3-2 as 60% imbalance towards TvZ, but that's nonsense. One more win by a Z, and it's perfect balance. 1 more win and it's ZvT imbalance! That makes no sense! In two days, given a few good ZvT's for someone, your entire data set can show ZvT imbalance because it only takes a few good games by a Z. Although, you won't have that in WCS Korea any time soon for the simple reason that Soulkey, Soo and Symbol are all in the same Ro16 group. All you can say so far about the Ro16 is that Supernova beat KangHo 2-0. Would I think that Supernova could do that to KangHo? Well, yes, he beat KangHo when they last met in September 2012, during the domination of Z against T.
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I like the banshee change. Banshees are nothing like hellbats, with hellbats you can get lucky if your opponent sends workers the wrong way or doesn't react in time. Banshee is far more forgiving for the defender and takes a lot of micro and babysitting to be useful for the attacker.
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On July 05 2013 13:51 highsis wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2013 06:15 iky43210 wrote:On July 05 2013 05:12 TheRabidDeer wrote:
I am confused, I thought the most recent winrates reported were pretty even across the board? I know what you posted is how it feels, but is it accurate? its not accurate, he is totally bullshitting and cherry picking his data. This is Korea only win rates (international looks even more balanced) http://i.imgur.com/0ciWmTd.png Not "only PL RO 6, finals of WCS (all 6 matches of it), during raining days and only innovations" arbitrary picked data. mine is stat of the highest level leagues from last 30 days or so zerg/ protoss are not doing well at the top level
source is here. http://www.reddit.com/r/starcraft/comments/1hers1/winrates_june_source_liquipedia/catmkos
Also when you have such a small sample size, people like innovation will massively skewer the data points.
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On July 05 2013 14:55 Sissors wrote:
It would be nice if the people who want to nerf terran into the ground would find some kind of concensus. At one side you have the people who claim that only at the highest level people can counter the new terran units, so it is unbalanced for the 'normal' player (lets say everything from gold to masters). At the other hand you have people like highsis who claim it is unbalanced for only the top 30 or so players in the world. A completely arbitrary line only chosen so you can cherrypick statistically insignificant data of course. But which one is should we now be worried about? That it is unbalanced for everyone who isn't a pro, or that it is unbalanced for the top few players.
The point of view that its imbalanced for the normal player annoys me. Terran gets progressively less represented as you go up higher leagues - http://www.sc2ranks.com/stats/league/all/1/all That strongly suggests its actually harder to play terran.
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On July 05 2013 15:22 Ghanburighan wrote:
Highsis, There are so few games in your sample size it's entirely meaningless. You're supposed to have that much variation! Try coin-flipping the same number of times per MU, do you get 50%? No, right. But the coin is obviously balanced. The variation is due to the fact that the sample needs to be larger.
You're reporting 3-2 as 60% imbalance towards TvZ, but that's nonsense. One more win by a Z, and it's perfect balance. 1 more win and it's ZvT imbalance! That makes no sense! In two days, given a few good ZvT's for someone, your entire data set can show ZvT imbalance because it only takes a few good games by a Z. Although, you won't have that in WCS Korea any time soon for the simple reason that Soulkey, Soo and Symbol are all in the same Ro16 group. All you can say so far about the Ro16 is that Supernova beat KangHo 2-0. Would I think that Supernova could do that to KangHo? Well, yes, he beat KangHo when they last met in September 2012, during the domination of Z against T.
It's obviously true but the more data into account the more you're merging results and player of different caliber, and you washed out the information. Data of winrate like this are pointless to my opinion, because format (BO1/BO3/BO5), maps and player do play a huge role. And in the end, the question is alway to ask where do you stop your data, which player you take into account and which one you ignore.
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On July 05 2013 13:51 highsis wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2013 06:15 iky43210 wrote:On July 05 2013 05:12 TheRabidDeer wrote:
I am confused, I thought the most recent winrates reported were pretty even across the board? I know what you posted is how it feels, but is it accurate? its not accurate, he is totally bullshitting and cherry picking his data. This is Korea only win rates (international looks even more balanced) http://i.imgur.com/0ciWmTd.png Not "only PL RO 6, finals of WCS (all 6 matches of it), during raining days and only innovations" arbitrary picked data. mine is stat of the highest level leagues from last 30 days or so zerg/ protoss are not doing well at the top level
Learn to statistics. Your sample size is bad and you should feel bad.
A proper sample size is to include ALL match ups since the last patch.
Also, Terran pros are insane. Hello, muthertrucking FLASH and INNOVATION?!!!
A fair statistics will remove ALL TOP RACE Pros.
That's because one star can bugger all the stats in the world. See Portugal soccer team's Cristian Ronaldo and Russian Chess teams.
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On July 05 2013 20:23 Hattori_Hanzo wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2013 13:51 highsis wrote:On July 05 2013 06:15 iky43210 wrote:On July 05 2013 05:12 TheRabidDeer wrote:
I am confused, I thought the most recent winrates reported were pretty even across the board? I know what you posted is how it feels, but is it accurate? its not accurate, he is totally bullshitting and cherry picking his data. This is Korea only win rates (international looks even more balanced) http://i.imgur.com/0ciWmTd.png Not "only PL RO 6, finals of WCS (all 6 matches of it), during raining days and only innovations" arbitrary picked data. mine is stat of the highest level leagues from last 30 days or so zerg/ protoss are not doing well at the top level Learn to statistics. Your sample size is bad and you should feel bad. A proper sample size is to include ALL match ups since the last patch. Also, Terran pros are insane. Hello, muthertrucking FLASH and INNOVATION?!!! A fair statistics will remove ALL TOP RACE Pros. That's because one star can bugger all the stats in the world. See Portugal soccer team's Cristian Ronaldo and Russian Chess teams.
Foreigners and code A/B level progamers don't represent balance at the highest level which is only relevant.
And pros at the very top represent the skillcap and potential that race has, which other pro gamers will eventually catch up. They shouldn't be excluded. if you ever watched BW, top players led to the imrpovement of their respective race.
Also about the sample size, you need to consider 'lengths' the data was collected from. ever since HOTS came out there must have been thousands of games that have been played between pros, and the on-screen games are the finest, best skill refined with countless practices and training. If for 3 months one race has been overperforming, that definitely indicate indicate something.
In addition, change in game strategy and trend makes it impossible to gain a data collectively representing the 'overal' balance because it shifts from time to time, so a compromise must be made as well as in defining the range of the highest level group.
If one player wins 9 games out of 10 you could still say that he was just lucky because there are only 10 games sample size, but it's more feasible to believe he is actually playing better than other players at the moment.
Larger sample size will provide more accurate answers, but even with smaller sample size you can get the flow of the balance.
And last for the love of mankind stop calling me ignorant or yelling me to learn. Some comments are unnecessarily aggressive, much more so than your average TL comments.
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I Would like it if double hellbat was removed from reactors and only built on tech labs, then put back on the reactor when you research the transformation upgrade. Give a reason to upgrade it and puts quite a big investment on the player if the player decides he wants to invest in hellbats/hellbat drops.
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I think it's pretty clear that the reason Terran does so well at the very tip top level is because for a while in both match ups they are just dropping and multitasking everywhere. This puts them in control of every game in the mid game, and lets players with better mechanics force mistakes out of the other player. These things are really difficult, and a good defense can beat pretty much anybody, but when innovation or flash is playing at their best they are almost impossible to beat. It kind of reminds me how in pro basketball, when a star player is shooting well, good offence always beats good deffence.
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EPT
