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LighT.
Canada4501 Posts
On December 29 2012 18:05 Emzeeshady wrote: If you follow GSTL then they would be. Come to think of it look at all the team league superstars that went on to be Code S champs DRG MMA Life Sniper Your turn next Tear You'd think Yonghwa would have demi-god status right now. | ||
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Warboss
United States12 Posts
Good luck to him no the Less. | ||
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thrawn1020
United States32 Posts
On December 29 2012 22:32 m0ck wrote: No one likes to think of probabilities when considering sports. GSL is pretty random. Match-ups, build-orders and a lot of players very close in skill. Whichever way it goes, I think we can be sure that the significance of the result will be overestimated ^^ See, it's not the Matchups -- So imagine a person, let's call them JYP, has a bad matchup, and let's say it is against Terran. Is it RANDOM that they lose if they play against a Terran? I doubt it. Also, Ro16 is _picked_, and the Ro8 matchups are determined by who picks whom. That's not terribly _random_, at least not in any way that term has ever been defined. There may be variance from season to season, but that's nonrandom as well. Also, build orders are a non-random event. What choices are out there may be dictated by time and or place, but it is assuredly not random. I know nobody really says it enough, but nothing any progamer does is random. It may be a mistake, they may forget things from time to time, but forgetfulness is not random either, because a great progamer notices when they forget things. Decisions on what build order to choose are also non-random. Even if the metagame says "This is what you do in this matchup", a coach and a player decide what to do in a certain map in a certain score in a certain position. Everything is being mapped out. Sometimes a plan doesn't work; after all, somebody does lose. But it is assuredly not random. Skill. Finally we get to the real heart of it. Skill is the overriding factor. Skill is not random, but rather it is a function of understanding and (lots of) practice. It is also nonlinear. Different players may understand things sooner than others, and that plays out in results. But there again, that's not random either. Frankly, luck is not the reason anything happens in starcraft. And things that look like luck are probably something that has happened a number of times in in-house games. The largest luck factor in the GSL is the Round of 32 groups, and there are conspiracy theories as to how those are selected and just how random they are. But the rest is time and place specific. | ||
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thrawn1020
United States32 Posts
On December 30 2012 02:13 LighT. wrote: You'd think Yonghwa would have demi-god status right now. I think we've been waiting for Yonghwa longer than we did for theSTC or Bomber to break out...I'm not holding my breath. I'm waiting for Startale_Avenge. Sniper knocked him out in the first round of Code A the season after they were the breakout stars. | ||
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vthree
Hong Kong8039 Posts
On December 29 2012 22:32 m0ck wrote: No one likes to think of probabilities when considering sports. GSL is pretty random. Match-ups, build-orders and a lot of players very close in skill. Whichever way it goes, I think we can be sure that the significance of the result will be overestimated ^^ Well, if you go by that theory, every sport and life is random. Things like weather, condition, injury, referee etc all play a huge role in sports. And even in normal life, is the person being paid the most in your company the 'best' person? The smartest? The hardest working? | ||
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ColtraneL
France248 Posts
The difference between last year (10/12 GSL tournaments to 4 players) and this year is huge. Despite the fact that you don't like the use of the word random, you can't say that there is no volatility in SC2 at the moment, and that implies two possible things. Either the luck aspect of every match up is important or the pool of player in code S is so close in level that you never see the same players dominate. In 5 tournaments, it's a bit hard to discuss whether it is one option or the other, even more when you take into account the fact that those 5 tournaments were played over a full year of evolving metagame, but still it always gives me this bitter impression that you can't really bet with confidence on anybody in GSL. I kinda liked when I was able to know who was going to win. For example, I have a hard time appreciating the fact that Taeja crushed everybody during two months with incredible domination before losing to a lot of inferior players right after. Seems pretty volatile to me (And I'm not even a fan of Taeja). | ||
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aintz
Canada5624 Posts
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unix04
United States89 Posts
On December 29 2012 12:22 Dosey wrote: I don't think you understand how sponsors work... That would be a terrible pitch. "HEY RAIDCALL, I HAVE A GENIUS IDEA!!! We're going to send Stephano to korea to train/play for 3 months to qualify for Code S! He's our most consistent foreign tournament player, but who cares about foreign stuff, even though you're a foreign based company! Pay for this dude to stay here for 3 months and POSSIBLY make it to the big stage of Code S while ignoring all foreign tournaments and getting your brand virtually no recognition! It's a sweet plan!" You know it doesn't cost a lot to sponsor one player for 3 months in Korea. We are not talking tens of thousands in endorsements. It would be very little cost and sending him would increase their global footprint by adding Korea to their audience. In the case that stephano does make it far into code s that will translate to stronger brand recognition in other places in the world, especially when he returns to crash the foreign scene once again. Rc already has many players already to spread their brand in foreign tourneys. One less will not ruin their campaign. It really comes down to your confidence in Stephan but it's low risk high reward. Every once in a while it's ok to make a few bets like this especially if you are in the marketing industry. | ||
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vthree
Hong Kong8039 Posts
On December 30 2012 03:10 ColtraneL wrote: You may not want to call it luck, but what Thurken says is still true. There is no stability in the game at the moment, no player that is capable of consistently crushing everybody, and the a solid proof are the numbers Thurken mentionned. The difference between last year (10/12 GSL tournaments to 4 players) and this year is huge. Despite the fact that you don't like the use of the word random, you can't say that there is no volatility in SC2 at the moment, and that implies two possible things. Either the luck aspect of every match up is important or the pool of player in code S is so close in level that you never see the same players dominate. In 5 tournaments, it's a bit hard to discuss whether it is one option or the other, even more when you take into account the fact that those 5 tournaments were played over a full year of evolving metagame, but still it always gives me this bitter impression that you can't really bet with confidence on anybody in GSL. I kinda liked when I was able to know who was going to win. For example, I have a hard time appreciating the fact that Taeja crushed everybody during two months with incredible domination before losing to a lot of inferior players right after. Seems pretty volatile to me (And I'm not even a fan of Taeja). I think that the players in Code S has just gotten so much closer in skill. Look at something like tennis. We have periods where it is dominated by 1 or 2 or 3 players and periods where it is wide open. Same with many other sports, it is just the way it is. Would someone say tennis is a volatile game? | ||
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Account252508
3454 Posts
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Sea_aeS
1025 Posts
On December 30 2012 03:08 vthree wrote: Well, if you go by that theory, every sport and life is random. Things like weather, condition, injury, referee etc all play a huge role in sports. And even in normal life, is the person being paid the most in your company the 'best' person? The smartest? The hardest working? Of course there is randomness even in normal life .... And for your example : most of the time the "best paid" ppl in companies come from the best schools, and ppl from the best schools come from the "best" social environment, and the fact that you, and not another, were born in the upper class is "random". | ||
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Animzor
Sweden2154 Posts
On December 30 2012 03:11 aintz wrote: is it for real this time. no it aintz | ||
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OrD_SC2
United States247 Posts
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Slardar
Canada7593 Posts
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Thurken
961 Posts
On December 30 2012 03:19 vthree wrote: I think that the players in Code S has just gotten so much closer in skill. Look at something like tennis. We have periods where it is dominated by 1 or 2 or 3 players and periods where it is wide open. Same with many other sports, it is just the way it is. Would someone say tennis is a volatile game? It is possible that people have gotten much closer in skill in code S but if you look at other big events where many of the best players are here (MLG, IPL, DH), you see that out of the last 7 tournaments, you only have 4 different winners. The top4 is also a lot less spread out. You could say that the skill variance is higher in those tournament but, the players pool is also a lot more diverse than in GSL. You have better chance to know you is gonna perform well in MLG, IPL or DH than in GSL because of different factors, but also because of the fact that GSL does not really reward the best player (by best I mean the best at macroing/microing/understanding the game/performing under pressure/reacting accordingly). | ||
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Chemist
Austria127 Posts
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rysecake
United States2632 Posts
not really... | ||
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niteReloaded
Croatia5281 Posts
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revel8
United Kingdom3022 Posts
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c0sm0naut
United States1229 Posts
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