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[October] TLPD Race Winrate Graphs - Page 16

Forum Index > SC2 General
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coolcor
Profile Joined February 2011
520 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-11-07 01:49:20
November 07 2011 01:35 GMT
#301
It doesn't help the scene if 90% of your players are cheering against 1/3 of your pros


Why not they can be the evil overpowered race fans like cheering for their favourites to conquer! It'll be fun.

Besides wasn't protoss strong in low level broodwar play did 90% hate bw protoss players and was this a big problem for making broodwar esports popular?
yzzdups
Profile Joined September 2011
United States32 Posts
November 07 2011 01:36 GMT
#302
On November 07 2011 05:23 coolcor wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2011 05:12 yzzdups wrote:
On November 07 2011 04:20 pPingu wrote:
https://twitter.com/#!/SC2Statistics

SC2Statistics SC2stats
October: imgur.com/JW38u . I have changed the trend lines to a moving average, feedback please! #SC2


[image loading]

color blind edition

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


September winrate


I kind of feel like this bar graph almost exaggerates the discrepancy in the win rate. Example, there is a 7% win rate difference between protoss and zerg, but the bar representing the statistics is less than half as tall for the protoss, as it is for the zerg or terran. I feel this is because the graph begins at 40% mark, rather 0 or 1.

EDIT: I just want to add that I'm not stating the game is balanced or not, I just feel like the graph appears a bit more extreme than it should.


Did anybody complain about the scale back when it was just a line graph and not a bar graph? I think that is what makes people feel like it is misleading because a lot of the height of the bar has been cut off even though they show the same points as the line graph.

He made one with the full scale for Korea last month would you really prefer this it just wastes a bunch of space from 0-40 and 60-100 with no information making the interesting part smaller and harder to read.

http://i.imgur.com/dNKqa.png

Looks fine to me.
ChaosTerran
Profile Joined August 2011
Austria844 Posts
November 07 2011 01:40 GMT
#303
On November 07 2011 10:35 coolcor wrote:
Show nested quote +
It doesn't help the scene if 90% of your players are cheering against 1/3 of your pros


Why not they can be the evil overpowered race fans like cheering for their favourites to conquer! I'll be fun.

Besides wasn't protoss strong in low level broodwar play did 90% hate bw protoss players and was this a big problem for making broodwar esports popular?


yes, I haven't played a lot of bw, just played casually, but I know for a fact that TvP was hard as hell to play.
StatX
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Canada343 Posts
November 07 2011 01:46 GMT
#304
Ladder stats are unreliable at best because blizzard's MMR matches you with an opponent around the same win/loss ratio as you. The only way to be sure about racial balance is to look at the top of the chain where they all have the mechanics, builds, micro and macro to support the race to its full potential.

Can we snipe it? Yes we can!
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-11-07 01:48:54
November 07 2011 01:46 GMT
#305
On November 07 2011 09:57 aksfjh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2011 09:52 Musketeer wrote:
On November 07 2011 09:45 doko100 wrote:
On November 07 2011 09:42 Silidons wrote:
On November 07 2011 09:36 doko100 wrote:
On November 07 2011 09:33 Maxhster wrote:
doko which ladder stats are you refferring to? do you have a link to those?


sc2ranks

Terran has by far the least players in masters (and diamond... and platinum.... and gold... and also grandmaster), least average points and protoss on the other hand is the complete opposite. If you want to complain about protoss, then look at the stats at your level of play. I'm fairly confident that none of you are pro players and terrans are actually the ones struggling on the ladder, so the question is... who should be complaining? We terrans are not really, but should the protoss players be complaining unless they are pros? No, it's irrational.

HAHAHAH so you're not comparing stats like win rates but only how many players are in what league. that is comical my friend, comical. please do continue as you seem to be a genius.


They are the most underrepresented race in the higher league with the least average points..really comical isn't it? Obviously their win rates have to be worse for there to be less terrans in the higher leagues compared to P and Z players when they are the most played race in the lower leagues, only logical explanation, or terrans are just worse and can't get out of silver league or they lose games on purpose.

Just checked SC2ranks. Pretty much everything you just said is wrong.

From today:
[image loading]
From July 17:
[image loading]

Terran population is slowly declining. Not sure which SC2ranks site you're looking at, but if you think he's wrong, it's not the right one.


None of that should have much effect on the stats. The graphs posted by the OP are for win-rates, so fewer players only means fewer games of that specific match up. That would have a limited/no effect of the win-rates, since the sample size is so large(over 25K games). Even if the were 10% less terrans that the other two races, that's still THOUSANDS of games. And none of those graphs show a difference of anything lose to that.

Also, random is included in those stats. 1/3 of those games are terran games.

Why do Terrans bring this up every month:

"Look, I know the stats say we are winning every match up. That looks like an issue, but its a lie. We are doing the worst on the ladder because we have fewer players. I know that does sound logical, but think about it. We are beating fewer protoss and zergs that we did last month. That means our number of total wins are declining, so we ARE doing worse. So just ignore those stats, they don't show the true story. They are only numbers."

I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Aetherial
Profile Joined August 2010
Australia917 Posts
November 07 2011 01:53 GMT
#306
From a statistical standpoint there are a few issues as to why these graphs don't provide a good picture of balance IMO:

Fluctuating player numbers (e.g. September had 1307 games, October had 810)
Fluctuating race ratios across months (Can't guarantee the same number of each race each month)


Lewan72
Profile Joined April 2011
United States381 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-11-07 02:09:12
November 07 2011 01:57 GMT
#307
Guys its cuz terran players are just better.
MC / Hero / MMA / Bomber / Coca / Suppy
Peanutbutter717
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United States240 Posts
November 07 2011 02:01 GMT
#308
I like the jump from october 2010 to november 2010 for PvT, was that when the 1/1/1 got big or what happened there?
Marine -> masters
Bro_Stone
Profile Joined April 2011
United States510 Posts
November 07 2011 02:05 GMT
#309
On November 07 2011 11:01 Peanutbutter717 wrote:
I like the jump from october 2010 to november 2010 for PvT, was that when the 1/1/1 got big or what happened there?


Think KA removal?
Stim Go Go GO!
aksfjh
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4853 Posts
November 07 2011 02:07 GMT
#310
On November 07 2011 10:46 Plansix wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2011 09:57 aksfjh wrote:
On November 07 2011 09:52 Musketeer wrote:
On November 07 2011 09:45 doko100 wrote:
On November 07 2011 09:42 Silidons wrote:
On November 07 2011 09:36 doko100 wrote:
On November 07 2011 09:33 Maxhster wrote:
doko which ladder stats are you refferring to? do you have a link to those?


sc2ranks

Terran has by far the least players in masters (and diamond... and platinum.... and gold... and also grandmaster), least average points and protoss on the other hand is the complete opposite. If you want to complain about protoss, then look at the stats at your level of play. I'm fairly confident that none of you are pro players and terrans are actually the ones struggling on the ladder, so the question is... who should be complaining? We terrans are not really, but should the protoss players be complaining unless they are pros? No, it's irrational.

HAHAHAH so you're not comparing stats like win rates but only how many players are in what league. that is comical my friend, comical. please do continue as you seem to be a genius.


They are the most underrepresented race in the higher league with the least average points..really comical isn't it? Obviously their win rates have to be worse for there to be less terrans in the higher leagues compared to P and Z players when they are the most played race in the lower leagues, only logical explanation, or terrans are just worse and can't get out of silver league or they lose games on purpose.

Just checked SC2ranks. Pretty much everything you just said is wrong.

From today:
[image loading]
From July 17:
[image loading]

Terran population is slowly declining. Not sure which SC2ranks site you're looking at, but if you think he's wrong, it's not the right one.


None of that should have much effect on the stats. The graphs posted by the OP are for win-rates, so fewer players only means fewer games of that specific match up. That would have a limited/no effect of the win-rates, since the sample size is so large(over 25K games). Even if the were 10% less terrans that the other two races, that's still THOUSANDS of games. And none of those graphs show a difference of anything lose to that.

Also, random is included in those stats. 1/3 of those games are terran games.

Why do Terrans bring this up every month:

"Look, I know the stats say we are winning every match up. That looks like an issue, but its a lie. We are doing the worst on the ladder because we have fewer players. I know that does sound logical, but think about it. We are beating fewer protoss and zergs that we did last month. That means our number of total wins are declining, so we ARE doing worse. So just ignore those stats, they don't show the true story. They are only numbers."


We're not talking about Terran ladder numbers affecting number of games played or winrates at pro level. We talk about ladder populations as an indicator of possible imbalance beyond the pro level. When you take into account a dwindling Terran population and lack of success outside of Korea, it paints a very different picture than the one most people portray on various SC2 communities. What's more, the complaints registered against Terrans generally come from non-pro players, in the plat-masters range anyways. Thus, detailed discussions often end up being tailored towards complaining about Terran strengths and possible nerfs at lower levels of play, that would affect already dwindling populations. It's not often that level-headed people enter a discussion about the TvX matchup suggesting a 5s rax buildtime nerf. Instead, it's usually along the lines of, "Marines should only have 4 range!" "MULEs should have a long cooldown!" "EMP should be a single target ability!"

All these stats about lower level play are just trying to bring perspective to the numbers. That perspective is, "Outside the EXTREME top of the playerbase, Terrans have a hard time." It's more of a call to rational discussion than anything else.
aksfjh
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4853 Posts
November 07 2011 02:09 GMT
#311
On November 07 2011 11:05 Bro_Stone wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2011 11:01 Peanutbutter717 wrote:
I like the jump from october 2010 to november 2010 for PvT, was that when the 1/1/1 got big or what happened there?


Think KA removal?

KA removal was in March 2011. That jump was mostly the metagame first developing, with stim+SCV all-ins on tiny maps.
Bippzy
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States1466 Posts
November 07 2011 02:44 GMT
#312
On November 07 2011 04:31 andis35 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2011 04:30 Fusilero wrote:
Why is PvZ so bad for toss? I thought that with the NP nerf it'd be more even or perhaps in favour of toss perhaps someone more enlightened could explain this to me?


infestor broodlord

Yeah pretty much neural parasite wasnt used so it aint much of a nerf

Toss does need a little something extra, im hopin those cheaper upgrades will make toss better
LEENOCK LEENOCK LEENOCK LEENOCK LEENOCK LEENOCK LEENOCK LEENOCK LEENOCK LEENOCK LEENOCK LEENOCK
dc302
Profile Joined December 2010
Australia576 Posts
November 07 2011 02:54 GMT
#313
On November 07 2011 11:44 Bippzy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2011 04:31 andis35 wrote:
On November 07 2011 04:30 Fusilero wrote:
Why is PvZ so bad for toss? I thought that with the NP nerf it'd be more even or perhaps in favour of toss perhaps someone more enlightened could explain this to me?


infestor broodlord

Yeah pretty much neural parasite wasnt used so it aint much of a nerf

Toss does need a little something extra, im hopin those cheaper upgrades will make toss better


It's also cause after everyone watches Nestea, they learn how to make drones.
...
iky43210
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
United States2099 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-11-07 02:56:14
November 07 2011 02:55 GMT
#314
On November 07 2011 09:25 thane wrote:
All that these graphs do is make me depressed because I cant beat protoss to save my life :S


its ok, pro play is drastically different from ladder play. Some units just don't cut it without the proper APM to execute them

I can't beat protoss to save my life either.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
November 07 2011 03:41 GMT
#315
On November 07 2011 11:07 aksfjh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2011 10:46 Plansix wrote:
On November 07 2011 09:57 aksfjh wrote:
On November 07 2011 09:52 Musketeer wrote:
On November 07 2011 09:45 doko100 wrote:
On November 07 2011 09:42 Silidons wrote:
On November 07 2011 09:36 doko100 wrote:
On November 07 2011 09:33 Maxhster wrote:
doko which ladder stats are you refferring to? do you have a link to those?


sc2ranks

Terran has by far the least players in masters (and diamond... and platinum.... and gold... and also grandmaster), least average points and protoss on the other hand is the complete opposite. If you want to complain about protoss, then look at the stats at your level of play. I'm fairly confident that none of you are pro players and terrans are actually the ones struggling on the ladder, so the question is... who should be complaining? We terrans are not really, but should the protoss players be complaining unless they are pros? No, it's irrational.

HAHAHAH so you're not comparing stats like win rates but only how many players are in what league. that is comical my friend, comical. please do continue as you seem to be a genius.


They are the most underrepresented race in the higher league with the least average points..really comical isn't it? Obviously their win rates have to be worse for there to be less terrans in the higher leagues compared to P and Z players when they are the most played race in the lower leagues, only logical explanation, or terrans are just worse and can't get out of silver league or they lose games on purpose.

Just checked SC2ranks. Pretty much everything you just said is wrong.

From today:
[image loading]
From July 17:
[image loading]

Terran population is slowly declining. Not sure which SC2ranks site you're looking at, but if you think he's wrong, it's not the right one.


None of that should have much effect on the stats. The graphs posted by the OP are for win-rates, so fewer players only means fewer games of that specific match up. That would have a limited/no effect of the win-rates, since the sample size is so large(over 25K games). Even if the were 10% less terrans that the other two races, that's still THOUSANDS of games. And none of those graphs show a difference of anything lose to that.

Also, random is included in those stats. 1/3 of those games are terran games.

Why do Terrans bring this up every month:

"Look, I know the stats say we are winning every match up. That looks like an issue, but its a lie. We are doing the worst on the ladder because we have fewer players. I know that does sound logical, but think about it. We are beating fewer protoss and zergs that we did last month. That means our number of total wins are declining, so we ARE doing worse. So just ignore those stats, they don't show the true story. They are only numbers."


We're not talking about Terran ladder numbers affecting number of games played or winrates at pro level. We talk about ladder populations as an indicator of possible imbalance beyond the pro level. When you take into account a dwindling Terran population and lack of success outside of Korea, it paints a very different picture than the one most people portray on various SC2 communities. What's more, the complaints registered against Terrans generally come from non-pro players, in the plat-masters range anyways. Thus, detailed discussions often end up being tailored towards complaining about Terran strengths and possible nerfs at lower levels of play, that would affect already dwindling populations. It's not often that level-headed people enter a discussion about the TvX matchup suggesting a 5s rax buildtime nerf. Instead, it's usually along the lines of, "Marines should only have 4 range!" "MULEs should have a long cooldown!" "EMP should be a single target ability!"

All these stats about lower level play are just trying to bring perspective to the numbers. That perspective is, "Outside the EXTREME top of the playerbase, Terrans have a hard time." It's more of a call to rational discussion than anything else.


I am very confused by your points. The data you are referencing in the "dwindling Terran population" show that terran is either A: is greater than the other two races, B: has close to equal numbers, being only off by 2-4%. Even at the highest level, GM, the numbers are close when there is only 200 of them per server. There is no dwindling population, the numbers are just not 33% terran, 33% protoss, 33% zerg, 1% random. Even at GM the numbers wouldn't be like that because it is only referencing 200 people, which is a small sample size. I have NEVER seen any evidence that terrans are having a rough time on the ladder.

I understand the frustration of playing a race and having everyone say it is overpowered. Its not like it is not a challenge to play SC2. It diminishes your wins, which you felt were hard to come by. If you are having problems with a match up, it doesn't help to hear that everyone else is winning it. There was a time earlier this year when everyone thought Protoss was unstoppable and then they got nerf and stuff got buffed. Personally, I never felt any of the unstoppable in my play, but I dealt with it and moved on. But I did get tired of seeing the posts about removing force-field from the game.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
skatbone
Profile Joined August 2010
United States1005 Posts
November 07 2011 03:45 GMT
#316
On November 07 2011 10:08 doko100 wrote:
You can hate on pro terrans all you want, but this hate towards master- terrans has to stop, it's irrational since terran already is underrepresented in Masters League (and in the lower leagues down to silver) and have the least average points. protoss player or even zerg players at that level of play have absolutely no right to complain about terran. pro imbalance doesn't affect them at all. We are the one's struggling at master, they are not.


Show me some hate that isn't irrational. The use of reason to justify hate leads to some pretty disgusting situations. Hitler did a great job rationalizing hate; European colonial powers rationalized dehumanization of indigenous populations--I'd argue that is hate as well.

My point: you're barking up the wrong tree in telling someone else that their feelings on balance aren't justified. As an earlier poster suggested, while we have statistics/facts, we are biased by the races we play. And many people in this thread are being selective about which stats they are highlighting. Still others are inventing things or reading into facts in exaggerated ways. Welcome to argumentation about something we care about. Only your rhetoric textbooks can expertly separate logos from pathos.

Now I'm all for mitigating general rage in SCII as a gesture toward better community. But toss aren't inventing rage and hate toward Terrans. A lot of toss feel legitimately ripped off by this game right now. You are welcome to throw facts at us and tell us our hate is not rational. From that privileged position, you can dismiss about the 99% of the material that passes for argument on TeamLiquid or on the Internet for that matter.

tl;dr Please refrain from telling people they have no right to complain. While I don't want "hate" either (I have never professed a hate of Terrans), I read you as asking toss players to drop their frustrations about their struggles because Terran struggle more. Why? Why is this a conversation about who deserves the right to feel frustrated? Obviously, a lot of us, across races, are frustrated with this game right now.
Mercurial#1193
vonterribad
Profile Joined July 2010
Australia50 Posts
November 07 2011 03:48 GMT
#317
I definitely had noticed a decline in running into Terrans on the ladder.
Kuja
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
United States1759 Posts
November 07 2011 03:50 GMT
#318
Seems about right, all i run into in my masters ladder is Zerg, but thankfully my PvZ is great. Despite what the graph might lead you to believe, i almost never run into terrans.
“Who's to say that my light is better than your darkness? Who's to say death is better than your darkness? Who am I to say?”
Daralii
Profile Joined March 2010
United States16991 Posts
November 07 2011 03:52 GMT
#319
I hope people realize that their ladder experiences don't reflect the balance of the game as a whole. The only place that it really matters is at the top, which right now is the GSL.
Fear is freedom! Subjugation is liberation! Contradiction is truth!
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
November 07 2011 03:55 GMT
#320
On November 07 2011 12:50 Kuja wrote:
Seems about right, all i run into in my masters ladder is Zerg, but thankfully my PvZ is great. Despite what the graph might lead you to believe, i almost never run into terrans.


Masters is the top 2% of players. It is possible that there are few terrans near your MMR since the player size is so small. There could, and likely are, the same number of terrans but none of them are at the exact point in the skill set you are.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
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