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On June 07 2011 23:24 aurum510 wrote:
How can IdrA cry about ZvP... It's the most imbalanced matchup and it's in favor of Zerg...
IdrA cried about BW TvP even when revolutions like the Flash Build and 1Rax FE were bringing it closer to parity on the professional level. The whine volume does not coorelate with reality. On the noob level I was still getting owned by D tosses while trying to copy IdrA's super-safe siege expand, so I was more than willing to soak up the pity. :D
Thanks for updating the graphs! It's obviously not 100% accurate, but gives us a great general idea of the balance.
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Fantastic work! Really appreciate this
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nice shark graph for TvZ :D and good thing came more close
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i find the results amusing cause idra keeps saying zvp blows....but yet you get guys like losira beating mc still. :-/.
either way with the problems with presenting data flat out like that...its still an interesting look into things.
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On June 07 2011 23:57 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Protoss seems to do the least QQing about their race, yet seems to be doing the worst overall.
Interesting.
Are these the statistics all across the board? Across all servers and all leagues?
You obviously weren't observing the MLG live discussion thread then.
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the ZvP graph looks fairly accurate for last few months, toss went through a month or so of rape, then went back to losing.
TBH those 4 graphs feel about how i feel playing each match up (im toss, off race as zerg quite a lot)
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On June 07 2011 23:49 Chaosvuistje wrote:
I would love to see statistics of this in relation to game duration, not just win/loss.
Yes, these statistics clearly show that overall, zerg has about the same chances to win as protoss. However, none of these statistics show if these wins come from the early game, midgame or the lategame.
That's one thing I've always wondered and I think the reason Zerg's tend to not look so strong in statistical analysis like this (even though this one of course shows there not doing bad at all) but once you show the win percentage past early to mid game I'm sure its much higher than most would assume.
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nice graphs! Looks like ZvP is really in favor of Zerg. What does blizzard need to change in order to make it closer?
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On June 08 2011 00:32 backtoback wrote:
nice graphs! Looks like ZvP is really in favor of Zerg. What does blizzard need to change in order to make it closer?
Changing something would be the worst thing they could do. It needs to play out over time.
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On June 08 2011 00:32 backtoback wrote:
nice graphs! Looks like ZvP is really in favor of Zerg. What does blizzard need to change in order to make it closer?
Still a couple more things to try out to put that matchup in protoss favor a little more before asking blizzard to step in.
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You can see the growing trend happening with all races. New banling styles and Infestor buffs have really helped.
http://www.sc2ranks.com/stats/league/eu/1/all
Check out Europe for example, Zerg use to have like 26% representation in Masters/Grand Masters-- roughly around their race representation (25%)--but in the last 2-3 months they have shot up to almost equaling Protoss in Diamond/Masters and Grand Masters, less than 1% difference
Craziest thing is, in Diamond they are about to become the most represented race (in Europe).
At the beginning of may there use to be 60 Zergs in Europe Grand Master, now there are 70.
From the looks of it, Zerg is going to become the dominant race in Europe if the trend continues for the next month or two 
EDIT:
Pro players aside, All Zergs in general have been having a lot of success
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Nice graphs! Although this probably ain't 100% accurate, but atleast it gives some direction of in what kind of state this game is.
What I see is that Zerg had 1 huge buff (infestor) and Protoss got a huge nerf (warpage research) and since the players are still re-discovering which is the best opening and more solid for PvZ I wouldn't atleast change yet in the game. If protoss can't still figure it out in a while I guess there surely needs to be done some tweaking since Zerg still needs few buffs that probably could mess the whole PvZ balance. (Hydra speed/scouting)
Just my personal opinion and I do not want start any imbalance discussion since it seems to be already in the air.
ps. I hope you will update those statistics in the future ^^
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On June 08 2011 00:32 backtoback wrote:
nice graphs! Looks like ZvP is really in favor of Zerg. What does blizzard need to change in order to make it closer?
It would be better if they didn't change anything. The players should have to figure out how to win, not start crying to Blizzard whenever they lose.
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On June 08 2011 00:32 backtoback wrote:
nice graphs! Looks like ZvP is really in favor of Zerg. What does blizzard need to change in order to make it closer?
That's the wrong question to ask.
The right question to ask would be "What other styles or strategies can Protosses explore to help them against Zergs?"
As a Protoss, I'm always open to suggestions 
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On June 07 2011 23:57 Yaotzin wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2011 23:49 Chaosvuistje wrote:
I would love to see statistics of this in relation to game duration, not just win/loss.
Yes, these statistics clearly show that overall, zerg has about the same chances to win as protoss. However, none of these statistics show if these wins come from the early game, midgame or the lategame.
If we could see winpercentages per matchup overall , y-axis winpercentage, x-axis game duration, we could deduct if lategame protoss is imbalanced, or if lategame TvZ is terribly lopsided in favour of Zerg. Until then these numbers are a good commodity, but nothing conclusion can be deducted from them balance wise.
Don't think game length is recorded anywhere so alas. An unequal winrate at various times would not, however, mean that one race is imba at that point. For example, let's say current metagame dictates incredibly greedy early game play. Under this metagame, the large majority of their losses will be early game, with many economic wins lategame. Yet the metagame could simply be flawed - perhaps this race would actually be better off with a middling approach throughout the game, which could produce a 50% winrate at all times. That's not even getting into whether having 50% at all times is even desirable.
I'm merely asking for data, I do not want a 50% at all times during the game, hell, that wasnt even the case for broodwar to my knowledge.
Lets have a hypothetical example in which protoss is imbalanced towards z at the 12 minute mark. The graph shows that around that time, protoss has an 80% winrate over zerg. This data we could then use to ask, which push is it that is difficult to handle. In such an extreme example like this, patching might be a solution. After the patch, the winrate is still in favour of protoss, but only by 60%. This is a much better ratio, and does not kill that strong push.
Obviously this data isn't the holy grail of balance. But it is a much better representation of balance than a normal boolean is.
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As a protoss who doesn't like using collosi I have felt for a long time that collosi are a boring and poorly designed unit. More importantly to the question of @backtoback I have felt that storm was quite underwhelming in it's performance. Units like the roach barely feel it and most of the zer gunits are so fast that they dodge it before even the 2nd tick of damage hits. It has smaller range and does practically less damage than both emp and fungal growth and splash damage is a must for protoss. A better archon and better but balanced storm would greatly improve the general feel of the game I feel not just solve some imbalance that may or may not be due to trends.
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On June 07 2011 23:30 Tuczniak wrote:
Great work.
Though it says almost nothing about balance. It's more about trends.
If roach + ling allins works now, it doesn't mean the game is balanced or isn't.
Yet protoss 2 months ago was IMBA?
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So the win percentages displayed are calculated based on the last 9 months?
Argh, if I understand this correctly, then I wonder what this data is really going to tell us.
So as of now the overall win percentages are pretty close to eachother but going back 9 months, how many patches haver there been?
I am sorry, but if I am not mistaken this data isn't helping at all in terms of learning something about the balance of the game.
It would make most sense to only look at the data since the last balance patch and then use statistical methods to check if the win percentages are significantly different from 50%. But this highly aggregated is not a good indicator at all.
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On June 07 2011 23:24 aurum510 wrote:
How can IdrA cry about ZvP... It's the most imbalanced matchup and it's in favor of Zerg...
Cuz Idra just cry all the time...he is a big baby
User was warned for this post
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Pretty balanced game imo. looks like there is no need for further changes
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EPT
