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On June 08 2011 00:44 Iamyournoob wrote:
So the win percentages displayed are calculated based on the last 9 months?
Argh, if I understand this correctly, then I wonder what this data is really going to tell us.
So as of now the overall win percentages are pretty close to eachother but going back 9 months, how many patches haver there been?
I am sorry, but if I am not mistaken this data isn't helping at all in terms of learning something about the balance of the game.
It would make most sense to only look at the data since the last balance patch and then use statistical methods to check if the win percentages are significantly different from 50%. But this highly aggregated is not a good indicator at all.
As I understood it, the data goes back 9 month, but each month only regards the results during this month. This means each data point only regards the values of 1 month, while the whole graph spans a time of 9 month.
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On June 08 2011 00:48 Raid wrote:
Pretty balanced game imo. looks like there is no need for further changes
Just because a game is seemingly balanced a year after launch doesn't mean it's going to stay balanced/is interesting.
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On June 08 2011 00:39 Talic_Zealot wrote:
As a protoss who doesn't like using collosi I have felt for a long time that collosi are a boring and poorly designed unit. More importantly to the question of @backtoback I have felt that storm was quite underwhelming in it's performance. Units like the roach barely feel it and most of the zer gunits are so fast that they dodge it before even the 2nd tick of damage hits. It has smaller range and does practically less damage than both emp and fungal growth and splash damage is a must for protoss. A better archon and better but balanced storm would greatly improve the general feel of the game I feel not just solve some imbalance that may or may not be due to trends.
Well then you should be liking the current metagame :o
Speaking as a Protoss...
In ZvP fast Colossus means death these days, you just can't do it without dieing to roach aggression minus PERFECT forcefields. A single Colossus or two isn't enough to swing the battle in your favor early in the game and in turn allows the Zerg to be really greedy if they want to because you cant punish them if you go fast Colossus. If you get too many Colossus then you become Infestor/Baneling-drop food, these days you stop at around 3-4 Colossus and go Templar/Stalker, you really need a TON of blink Stalkers, Colossus take up too much supply in the lategame.
Fast Blink is a must it seems, Zerg have realized Lings aren't terrible against Toss and dominate the battlefield till we have 30forcefields (but usually they just start running between my bases at that stage ><) or Templars 
Disagree about Storm, If it did more damage then it would be too strong, it is fine as it is. The damage is amazing, but usually its not Storm that is the problem, is getting to it and having an economy to support it.
If they really had to buff something for Protoss, I would rather them reduce the cost of our tech structures, mineral cost of Stalkers and maybe have sentries return 25gas on death, they are sooo expensive .__.
The last two are a stretch but I can dream can't I ^^"?
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Guys,
Obviously we protoss still be OP cause we have lasers.
and PRO is in our race name... common. Why does anyone play another race.
Why do you think we don't whine like little drones every time we loose a game.
Cause we just blow up your planet - done. no questions. "we purge" and "remain focused" on using our "power overwhelming"
seriously tho these stats means whose winning pro matches not the balance of the game. If everyone was the same skill level and there were equal number of players for each race these stats would indicate balance.
Terran has been doing so well because it was the most popular and "op" at release and a lot of really talented people chose stuck with T.
EDIT: gosh darn it two protoss complained above me. You better report to the executor for execution
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[QUOTE]On June 07 2011 23:01 Ctuchik wrote:
There have been over 1700 tournament and league games added for May to TLPD, so it's time to update the win rate graph.
/QUOTE]
Good work man. I have one suggestion though. I think you should mention explicitly that the x-axis does not go from 0-100 but only shows the necessary part of the domain. And that this means that the differences are exaggerated (not everyone will have this in mind. Why should they really...).
This is not a problem with your data or your graphs. It is a problem with how people perceive data when presented as graphs  We need all the help we can get with stats 
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On June 07 2011 23:25 FrodaN wrote:
These graphs are ALWAYS great to have in the back of our minds. Very interesting indeed!
Also, I believe separating Korean and International results might really skew some data as Korean Ts are notoriously good and Korean Ps are struggling hardcore. Meanwhile players like Naniwa are dominating (still), etc. etc.
Nonetheless, great work op!
but the best way to show the real overall race winrates is the way it has been done. when i sample the whole of the united states about politics, i will get people from rural areas and people from urban araes, and they're going to have some differing political opinions. i can't leave out the city for the sake of the country, or vice versa, because each person is just as valid as the other. sure, i can look at them separately as you suggest, but when i want to learn about the overall population, i need to look at them as a whole. starcraft is very unique in that a census of top players is not only possible, but very easy to do because all information is recorded, so combining all regions gives an excellent sense of where the real overall winrates are at. you can't even argue natural sampling error as it's a census of the population.
anyway, the winrates are looking very good. it seems that we're past the point where zerg never won games, and we're just about even. anyone saying that zerg is better than protoss now, that's not necessarily true. it would appear that zerg is just at the advantageous state in the metagame. starcraft is about response. a race comes up with a powerful new strategy that the other doesn't have a clear response to yet, so they pull ahead in the winrate. the other race responds with a strategy that trumps it, and then they pull ahead in the winrate. i'm of the opinion that balanced starcraft should not follow a straight line of exactly 50%, but rather should follow a sort of sinusoidal curve.
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im colorblind and cannot tell the difference between red and green...
possible to get an edit of the graph with colorblind friendly colors
red/blue/yellow works very well
otherwise can someone give a hint as to what line is which race?
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On June 08 2011 01:00 smacky wrote:
im color blind and cannot tell the difference between red and green...
possible to get an edit with colorblind
This. I'm the same unfortunately.
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Interesting how there are so few PvZ compared to TvX. While the current % difference is a bit higher in this matchup, the sample size is a lot smaller.
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As expected, the stats show what every sane person knows, that the game is getting pretty damn close to being fully balanced. thanks for putting so much effort into making these stats, its very interesting to see how the metagame shifts with every patch/new strategy!
for example, WTF happened in january for TvZ lol.
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Is there a way you can split the data? The skill level is somewhat greater in Korea so it really can't be combined I think.
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[+ Show Spoiler +QUOTE] On June 08 2011 01:01 valaki wrote:On June 08 2011 01:00 smacky wrote:
im color blind and cannot tell the difference between red and green...
possible to get an edit with colorblind This. I'm the same unfortunately.
alas we shall never be fighter pilots....
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On June 08 2011 01:04 SilverJohnny wrote:
As expected, the stats show what every sane person knows, that the game is getting pretty damn close to being fully balanced. thanks for putting so much effort into making these stats, its very interesting to see how the metagame shifts with every patch/new strategy!
for example, WTF happened in january for TvZ lol.
Jan is the time every GSL terran was making 8-12 marines when sending them with 20 SCV in front of them to kill zerg
It still works actually, I don't know why more terran are not doing it.
The only reason it stopped working 6 months ago is because every zerg was so afraid of it that they would instantly build a blind spine crawler when their natural finished or a blind fast baneling nest.
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On June 08 2011 01:08 smacky wrote:[ + Show Spoiler +QUOTE] On June 08 2011 01:01 valaki wrote:On June 08 2011 01:00 smacky wrote:
im color blind and cannot tell the difference between red and green...
possible to get an edit with colorblind This. I'm the same unfortunately.
alas we shall never be fighter pilots....
[/QUOTE]
Color blind edition!
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/Rxlaz.png)
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On June 08 2011 01:17 Mailing wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2011 01:04 SilverJohnny wrote:
As expected, the stats show what every sane person knows, that the game is getting pretty damn close to being fully balanced. thanks for putting so much effort into making these stats, its very interesting to see how the metagame shifts with every patch/new strategy!
for example, WTF happened in january for TvZ lol. Jan is the time every GSL terran was making 8-12 marines when sending them with 20 SCV in front of them to kill zerg It still works actually, I don't know why more terran are not doing it. The only reason it stopped working 6 months ago is because every zerg was so afraid of it that they would instantly build a blind spine crawler when their natural finished or a blind fast baneling nest.
I thought that was more of a GSL season 2/3 thing, January was MKP vs MVP finals, not as much 2rax alling I thought (except bitbybit LOL). I'm in class right now so I can't watch VODS, but from the matches I remember it wasn't quite that. Maybe i'm wrong though, all the GSLs have started to blur together.
and that's just the GSL, doesn't explain all the international tournaments and such.
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No idea then.
Jan 11 was patch 1.2, which was extremely minor. No zerg nerfs or buffs and terran only had a bunker/scv building change. Can't remember what happened to the metagame back then
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Is this including bronze league and such? because if they do i dont really care about these stats... they need to be masters +
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Damn, those Protoss players are so bad. Even with such an OP race, they still can't get above 50% win ratio in any matchup. It's a good thing Zerg and Terran players are on average three times better, and the Protoss' can't win games anymore by macroing to 200 and then a-moving across the map.
On a related note, I'd really like to see the Korean stats by themselves.
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Nice job, dude !
However The T and Z lines will never cross paths untill the guessing game is over.
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EPT
