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Race Win Rates Update: May - Page 2

Forum Index > SC2 General
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dani`
Profile Joined January 2011
Netherlands2402 Posts
June 07 2011 14:25 GMT
#21
Good job. Every time a Zerg whines again after I defeat him about how "stupidly imbalanced" Protoss is I will point him to this so he can see it's all roughly equal so he can conclude he just played horribly =)

If I would actually want to be a whiny [lewd or immoral woman] I could even say Protoss is the weakest right now. But let's interpret these numbers in the wrong way and take into account the variance and such and simply conclude: the game approaches balances, yay!
FrodaN
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
754 Posts
June 07 2011 14:25 GMT
#22
These graphs are ALWAYS great to have in the back of our minds. Very interesting indeed!

Also, I believe separating Korean and International results might really skew some data as Korean Ts are notoriously good and Korean Ps are struggling hardcore. Meanwhile players like Naniwa are dominating (still), etc. etc.

Nonetheless, great work op!
SolonTLG
Profile Joined November 2010
United States299 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-07 14:26:25
June 07 2011 14:25 GMT
#23
Another thing that might be interesting is to put vertical line markers and brief notes to denote the major balance patches. For example, where is the stim nerf in relation to the change in TvZ win rates? The correlation or non-correlation of the patches and percentage changes might be informative.
The Law Giver
naggerNZ
Profile Joined December 2010
New Zealand708 Posts
June 07 2011 14:27 GMT
#24
I'm not surprised, considering that there aren't really many good Protoss players. I think these results are more to do with Terran and Zerg being more attractive to top pros than Protoss being weaker than Zerg and Terran.
Slunk
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Germany768 Posts
June 07 2011 14:27 GMT
#25
On June 07 2011 23:22 Ctuchik wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 07 2011 23:18 Day[9] wrote:
Fantastic graphs! I have a really stupid request if possible lol:

I'm used to Zerg = Red, Terran = Blue, Protoss = Green from years of surfing Teamliquid. Would it be possible to do some color swapouts?

Regardless, I LOVE seeing data like this :D


Oh, are those the generally accepted colors? I was actually thinking quite a bit about this before settling on the ones I have now. It's incredibly easy to change though.

I can also very easily bring up International and Korean numbers only, but it's not as useful as some of you may think. The sample size of the Korean games is small enough that you can't really draw any conclusions from them, and international numbers are basically unchanged if you remove Koreans.


(T)MMA
(Z)DongRaeGu
(P)Alicia

This is why the colors are generally accepted.

Great work though. It shows very well how any complaining only gets going when the problem is almost solved.
Yaotzin
Profile Joined August 2010
South Africa4280 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-07 14:28:43
June 07 2011 14:27 GMT
#26
On June 07 2011 23:25 FrodaN wrote:
These graphs are ALWAYS great to have in the back of our minds. Very interesting indeed!

Also, I believe separating Korean and International results might really skew some data as Korean Ts are notoriously good and Korean Ps are struggling hardcore. Meanwhile players like Naniwa are dominating (still), etc. etc.

Nonetheless, great work op!

Obviously it has disclaimers attached, but it's still interesting to see the Korean only data. Korea is generally the best, and they generally create the big metagame shifts (most recent example the oh so popular roach ling allin vs 3gate expand), so..
RinconH
Profile Joined April 2010
United States512 Posts
June 07 2011 14:28 GMT
#27
Cool graphs.

The TvZ one is beautiful how it is coming together lol
lurked
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Canada918 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-07 14:29:48
June 07 2011 14:29 GMT
#28
If at least I had any knowledge of statistics, I could make up some significant and relevant information from this.

But as I'm an average TLer, I'll simply yell : PROTOSS UP! NEED A BUFF! GRAPH PROVED IT! I'M AN IDIOT TYPING IN CAPS! :D

But yeah seriously, it's nice to see an "imaged" version of these results, but I also can't wait to see what everyone will get out of it...
Magic is "just" magic until I get my hands on the source code.
Kon-Tiki
Profile Joined February 2011
United States402 Posts
June 07 2011 14:30 GMT
#29
On June 07 2011 23:27 Yaotzin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 07 2011 23:25 FrodaN wrote:
These graphs are ALWAYS great to have in the back of our minds. Very interesting indeed!

Also, I believe separating Korean and International results might really skew some data as Korean Ts are notoriously good and Korean Ps are struggling hardcore. Meanwhile players like Naniwa are dominating (still), etc. etc.

Nonetheless, great work op!

Obviously it has disclaimers attached, but it's still interesting to see the Korean only data. Korea is generally the best, and they generally create the big metagame shifts, so..


Indeed. Even knowing that the sample size is far too small for reasonable data, the Koreans do set the trends in the game right now, so I think most of us would like to see that data. Even if its just for grins
I am a leaf on the wind. Watch how I soar.
Tuczniak
Profile Joined September 2010
1561 Posts
June 07 2011 14:30 GMT
#30
Great work.

Though it says almost nothing about balance. It's more about trends.
If roach + ling allins works now, it doesn't mean the game is balanced or isn't.
goiflin
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Canada1220 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-07 14:31:29
June 07 2011 14:31 GMT
#31
For the swarm. The imba crying was all a ploy to get you terrans and protosses to be too comfortable with the matchup!
awu25
Profile Joined April 2010
United States2003 Posts
June 07 2011 14:31 GMT
#32
I think many people still need to take a statistics course. These matches weren't all played under the same circumstances (different maps, different players, different skill levels) so to say that the game is balanced/imbalanced based on these statistics is wrong.
Blackk
Profile Joined November 2010
South Africa226 Posts
June 07 2011 14:32 GMT
#33
If this means anything it is probably that nobody currently needs a significant buff. If I was blizzard all i might be tinkering with would be the maps.
hah.
Olinim
Profile Joined March 2011
4044 Posts
June 07 2011 14:32 GMT
#34
On June 07 2011 23:30 Tuczniak wrote:
Great work.

Though it says almost nothing about balance. It's more about trends.
If roach + ling allins works now, it doesn't mean the game is balanced or isn't.

How come no one said this during the "deathball" phase?
Yaotzin
Profile Joined August 2010
South Africa4280 Posts
June 07 2011 14:33 GMT
#35
On June 07 2011 23:31 awu25 wrote:
I think many people still need to take a statistics course. These matches weren't all played under the same circumstances (different maps, different players, different skill levels) so to say that the game is balanced/imbalanced based on these statistics is wrong.

Maps changing is something to bear in mind, but the player/skill level stuff cancels out.
Piski
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Finland3461 Posts
June 07 2011 14:35 GMT
#36
On June 07 2011 23:32 Olinim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 07 2011 23:30 Tuczniak wrote:
Great work.

Though it says almost nothing about balance. It's more about trends.
If roach + ling allins works now, it doesn't mean the game is balanced or isn't.

How come no one said this during the "deathball" phase?


A lot of people said that actually.
Tuczniak
Profile Joined September 2010
1561 Posts
June 07 2011 14:35 GMT
#37
On June 07 2011 23:32 Olinim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 07 2011 23:30 Tuczniak wrote:
Great work.

Though it says almost nothing about balance. It's more about trends.
If roach + ling allins works now, it doesn't mean the game is balanced or isn't.

How come no one said this during the "deathball" phase?
I meant if in 50% cases you kill him before deathball and otherwise you die, it seems statistically balanced, but...
jinixxx123
Profile Joined June 2010
543 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-07 14:39:13
June 07 2011 14:36 GMT
#38
do these count ladder games also in korea? if so how much games do you think are screwed due to close positions TvZ since ladder maps have not removed it. if we bear that in mind T=Z exactly? or maybe just slightly 1 or 2 % in favor for zerg on maps with no close position
Lonyo
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United Kingdom3884 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-07 14:38:26
June 07 2011 14:37 GMT
#39
On June 07 2011 23:20 Yaotzin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 07 2011 23:15 Mailing wrote:
On June 07 2011 23:11 Yaotzin wrote:
On June 07 2011 23:09 Mailing wrote:
Not really. Korean protoss are falling apart, to the point where only Alicia, MC, Ace, Squirtle, and maybe Huk are having any form of consistent results, namely because they are actually really good players who belong in Code S >>

I would suspect the rest, like inca/anypro/tester/hongun/sangho to fall out of code S soon.

Uh yes? That's the trend: Korean Protosses are doing horribly.

Not sure why you're disagreeing.


I am saying the good protoss are doing fine, and the bad protoss are doing bad.

As opposed to months ago when the good protoss were winning and the bad protoss were still making top 16

The good tosses are doing badly. Alicia has done nothing. MC has done poorly in last 2 GSLs. Ace is useless in Korea he just wins in foreigner tournaments. Squirtle has done nothing.


MC lost to Alicia in a PvP in GS ST
In GSTL before that he went 3-1
He lost to Polt in GSL April, PvT, but won a PvZ and beat a terran in Up/Down matches.
He won the GSL before that.

Protoss may be doing worse against Zerg overall, but MC's performance isn't bad because of balance changes. He lost a PvT 2-0 and a PvP 2-0 and that's why he went out of the two recent GSLs.
HOLY CHECK!
Yaotzin
Profile Joined August 2010
South Africa4280 Posts
June 07 2011 14:38 GMT
#40
On June 07 2011 23:36 jinixxx123 wrote:
do these count ladder games also in korea? if so how much games do you think are screwed due to close positions TvZ since ladder maps have not removed it. if we bear that in mind T=Z exactly? or maybe just slightly 1 or 2 % in favor for zerg?

It's all pro games in competitions, from TLPD. Zero ladder games.
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