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People, people, please actually read the post. It does not have the whole server stats, just a subset, 10k profile numbers per region, which corresponds to about actual 5.5k-6k profiles with 1v1 games played. So it does not have the total number of Diamond players, and all win%s can be over 50% since the games recorded can be against people that were not mined. And yeah I know there are a bajillion more interesting stats, these are the ones that are easy to get 
Now if I had infinite time and bandwidth and then a global ranking with global stats for the whole region would be possible.
And if I'm not mistaken, there's only a portion of each player's matches that's kept and displayed on the website. Hence why anything statistics of MU would not be complete.
AFAIK MU stats cannot be mined at all since the match history doesn't show who the games are played against. A rough race&map win% would be possible though since the map is shown in the partial match history. Maybe I'll check that.
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maybe im just bad at math but how does each race have an average of over 50%. In order to win you have to beat som1 so every1 cant win more than half the time but w.e i could be oblivious to something
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Wont lie, looking at US one my first thought was "50 more toss than zerg and terran? Does that mean Toss is the strongest in the US?"
But then noticed there are just more Toss overall (500 more, actually), so yeah.
Kinda interesting that it seems each race has 10% of it's numbers in diamond
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What this data tells us is that the MM is doing its job. As long as they are matching people with people close to their skill level, win rates should always be 50-60% no matter what race they play.
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not sure whether we can use this to create our own ladder though ... as has been pointed out there is no detailed information on games played and the player 'points'' are just the points in that particular division. There is information on the points won or lost for every game but I don't think there is anyway to correlate players between different divisions/leagues?
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I updated with some data that might be of interest; average diamond player ratings of different races and map win percentages, based on the brief match history of each diamond player.
Please note that I'm pretty sure this sample size is not very statistically significant. Can't be bothered to calculate that though The data was the 1v1 games that were found in the last 25 games played for those ~600 diamond players.
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T seems to be pretty imbalanced on metalopolis and desert oasis. On the other hand, random has 59% on metalopolis also, so I wonder if any real conclusions can be drawn from these stats at all?
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On July 16 2010 17:49 Multis wrote:
T seems to be pretty imbalanced on metalopolis and desert oasis. On the other hand, random has 59% on metalopolis also, so I wonder if any real conclusions can be drawn from these stats at all?
Probably not because of the relatively small amounts of games analyzed (~6k-10k).  Even less so for Random and DO since the sample size is even smaller for those (since everyone thumbdowns DO). Still, at least for the more popular maps the figures shouldn't be THAT far off.
In theory 4p maps could favor Random because of the harder scouting.
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Ohh, nice find =D The stats seem to be pretty even-ish for diamond level play, and sure there are some stats that aren't dead 50/50 but thats what skill is for right?
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Can someone explain to me why every single race has over 50% on kulas? How is that possible?
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Sweden33719 Posts
On July 16 2010 17:49 Multis wrote:
T seems to be pretty imbalanced on metalopolis and desert oasis. On the other hand, random has 59% on metalopolis also, so I wonder if any real conclusions can be drawn from these stats at all?
How exactly do you find a 51% win ratio to be imbalanced (desert oasis), especially when the other races have higher winrates on that map?
EDIT: Oh I see, EU stats are different from the US stats. Pretty big difference too.
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We have Diamond players, who are matched against people not part of the sample (possibly including some platinum players I'd imagine). We should expect diamond players to have a slightly over 50% win rate on average overall.
That said, I agree that this says more about the matchmaker than it does about the game balance.
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On July 17 2010 00:49 Glacierz wrote:
Can someone explain to me why every single race has over 50% on kulas? How is that possible?
Diamond League has a >50% win rate as a whole because they kill lower level leagues.
Zerg on Kulas Ravine : 54.56%
Zerg on Metalopolis : 49.93 %
Zerg on Scrap Station : 56.45 %
Zerg on Desert Oasis : 52.87 %
Zerg on Steppes of War : 52.23 %
Zerg on Lost Temple : 48.47 %
Zerg on Blistering Sands : 54.94 %
Did no one think to point this out, this is mind boggling.
The ONLY sub 50% win rate for any race on any map in diamond is Zerg in Metalopolis and LT! That's just nuts for the 'most zerg favored map'.
I wonder what kind of bias there is. Are inferior zerg diamond players thumbing down everything they can so they play Metaloplis and LT more often because those maps are 'zerg favored'? If they're doing this while stronger zerg players leave everything thumbed up it could account for the %s.
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Good info, good post.
LT is absolutely awful for Zerg (against T) with that cliff over the nat. Don't know who would ever say it favors Zerg. I HAVE heard that for metalopolis though. I think that 2nd nat is really easy for t and p to take and defend while Zerg usually has to take a big risk to get their 4th, and Zerg has almost nowhere to put overlords. Those are the only reasons I can think of that would put Zerg far enough behind the other races to account for that, although I still wonder how it's THAT low..
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That's a good analysis, but the more shocking one really is Metalopolis. Also shocking is that Kulas Ravine has a 'normal' win % for Zerg, it's even one of the higher win %s in the pool.
Zerg also has the highest map win % with Scrap Station. I hate that map as Z so that's pretty surprising for me.
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On July 17 2010 00:58 Logo wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2010 00:49 Glacierz wrote:
Can someone explain to me why every single race has over 50% on kulas? How is that possible? Diamond League has a >50% win rate as a whole because they kill lower level leagues. Show nested quote +Zerg on Kulas Ravine : 54.56%
Zerg on Metalopolis : 49.93 %
Zerg on Scrap Station : 56.45 %
Zerg on Desert Oasis : 52.87 %
Zerg on Steppes of War : 52.23 %
Zerg on Lost Temple : 48.47 %
Zerg on Blistering Sands : 54.94 % Did no one think to point this out, this is mind boggling. The ONLY sub 50% win rate for any race on any map in diamond is Zerg in Metalopolis and LT! That's just nuts for the 'most zerg favored map'. I wonder what kind of bias there is. Are inferior zerg diamond players thumbing down everything they can so they play Metaloplis and LT more often because those maps are 'zerg favored'? If they're doing this while stronger zerg players leave everything thumbed up it could account for the %s.
Oh right, but in time most people in diamond should also get 50% as they get matched against one another... I think theres not enough data history here for anything conclusive as a lot of these high win %s are from climbing up the ladder while the ladder is still settling players.
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On July 17 2010 00:56 Liquid`Jinro wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2010 17:49 Multis wrote:
T seems to be pretty imbalanced on metalopolis and desert oasis. On the other hand, random has 59% on metalopolis also, so I wonder if any real conclusions can be drawn from these stats at all? How exactly do you find a 51% win ratio to be imbalanced (desert oasis), especially when the other races have higher winrates on that map? EDIT: Oh I see, EU stats are different from the US stats. Pretty big difference too.
Yeah, I would probably not take heed of the data marked as "old", as the sample set in the now updated US region data is 6-7 times bigger and should include virtually every diamond player and all the 1v1 games from their 25 last played games. So that's about 50k games total - should give statistical significance already.
The zerg deficit in Metalo and LT looks pretty dumbfounding though since as far as I understand those are the only two maps widely considered as balanced. I'm not sure what could cause such a difference compared to the others, even maps like Kulas which zergs often seem to struggle on, judging by the posts here.
Also fun to see how Protoss looks to be almost oblivious to the map played, with win percentages very very similar across all maps.
I'll probably do other regions when they get included in http://starcraftrankings.com (= the data is muuuch faster to mine since the diamond players would be indexed already).
Oh right, but in time most people in diamond should also get 50% as they get matched against one another... I think theres not enough data history here for anything conclusive as a lot of these high win %s are from climbing up the ladder while the ladder is still settling players.
Yeah the absolute numbers don't really say a lot, but the relative numbers do compared to other maps for the same race.
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On July 17 2010 01:30 Glacierz wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2010 00:58 Logo wrote:On July 17 2010 00:49 Glacierz wrote:
Can someone explain to me why every single race has over 50% on kulas? How is that possible? Diamond League has a >50% win rate as a whole because they kill lower level leagues. Zerg on Kulas Ravine : 54.56%
Zerg on Metalopolis : 49.93 %
Zerg on Scrap Station : 56.45 %
Zerg on Desert Oasis : 52.87 %
Zerg on Steppes of War : 52.23 %
Zerg on Lost Temple : 48.47 %
Zerg on Blistering Sands : 54.94 % Did no one think to point this out, this is mind boggling. The ONLY sub 50% win rate for any race on any map in diamond is Zerg in Metalopolis and LT! That's just nuts for the 'most zerg favored map'. I wonder what kind of bias there is. Are inferior zerg diamond players thumbing down everything they can so they play Metaloplis and LT more often because those maps are 'zerg favored'? If they're doing this while stronger zerg players leave everything thumbed up it could account for the %s. Oh right, but in time most people in diamond should also get 50% as they get matched against one another... I think theres not enough data history here for anything conclusive as a lot of these high win %s are from climbing up the ladder while the ladder is still settling players.
No.
Long Version:
Diamond comprises the top 10% of the ladder, even more it extends up to the top 1 player. Players at the top are statistically more likely to play someone below them than above them given the possible range in match making. It sounds obvious but think about what it means. When you account for people being offline, in game, or not playing then the top 10 players are more likely to play the top 11-50 than they are each other, the top 11-50 are more likely to play 51-200 than they are to play the top 1-50 and so on. It's only the middle part of the bell-curve of player skill that you're statistically likely to have opponents that are on average exactly your skill level. You have to remember that the # of people with say 400 Diamond points is significantly more than the # of people with 500 diamond points, but those groups of players are still close enough to be matched.
So what happens is players play people that they're slightly favored to beat (say 57% likely as the racial win %s for diamond show) because when searching for a game it's more likely for a player at the top to match a player slightly below them.
To put it another way, even though behind the scenes it's the same effect, players in platinum may play vs diamond players as their rating streaks up. On the other end there's no one better than diamond to come down and play diamond.
If you looked at map win %s of Platinum or Gold they'd be much closer to 50%. If you looked at map win %s of Bronze they'd average slightly below 50%.
This sounds like it's largely about overall win % and it is. If diamond players are winning 57% of their games how could they possible have an average of 50% win rate on the maps. That'd be mathematically impossible.
Now the larger the bell curve (more players that play) the less the bell curve dips off. So right now it's a 7% difference for top players. Come release that may shrink down to 1%-5%, but it'll still exist.
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This data is completely useless.. It just proves that Diamond players across all races play more non-diamond players than other Diamond players, otherwise there wouldn't be 50+% for every single race across every single map (with the exception of 2 zerg maps) .
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The game aims to give everyone a win percentage of 50-60%.
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EPT
