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On July 17 2010 01:44 Paramore wrote:
This data is completely useless.. It just proves that Diamond players across all races play more non-diamond players than other Diamond players, otherwise there wouldn't be 50+% for every single race across every single map (with the exception of 2 zerg maps) .
That's not at all what it proves or says.
Every diamond vs diamond game drives the rating towards 50% win. Every diamond vs non-diamond game drives it away from that 50% by some unspecified amount based on how likely a diamond is to beat a non-diamond.
Here's an example... If a diamond pool has 2000 games vs diamond players and 1000 games vs non-diamond players with a 75% win rate then the pool's win % is 55% while 2/3rds of the games were played diamond vs diamond.
If the win rate vs non-diamonds is higher than 75% then you could have 57% with an even higher % of games being diamond vs diamond.
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On July 17 2010 01:40 Logo wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2010 01:30 Glacierz wrote:On July 17 2010 00:58 Logo wrote:On July 17 2010 00:49 Glacierz wrote:
Can someone explain to me why every single race has over 50% on kulas? How is that possible? Diamond League has a >50% win rate as a whole because they kill lower level leagues. Zerg on Kulas Ravine : 54.56%
Zerg on Metalopolis : 49.93 %
Zerg on Scrap Station : 56.45 %
Zerg on Desert Oasis : 52.87 %
Zerg on Steppes of War : 52.23 %
Zerg on Lost Temple : 48.47 %
Zerg on Blistering Sands : 54.94 % Did no one think to point this out, this is mind boggling. The ONLY sub 50% win rate for any race on any map in diamond is Zerg in Metalopolis and LT! That's just nuts for the 'most zerg favored map'. I wonder what kind of bias there is. Are inferior zerg diamond players thumbing down everything they can so they play Metaloplis and LT more often because those maps are 'zerg favored'? If they're doing this while stronger zerg players leave everything thumbed up it could account for the %s. Oh right, but in time most people in diamond should also get 50% as they get matched against one another... I think theres not enough data history here for anything conclusive as a lot of these high win %s are from climbing up the ladder while the ladder is still settling players. No. Long Version: Diamond comprises the top 10% of the ladder, even more it extends up to the top 1 player. Players at the top are statistically more likely to play someone below them than above them given the possible range in match making. It sounds obvious but think about what it means. When you account for people being offline, in game, or not playing then the top 10 players are more likely to play the top 11-50 than they are each other, the top 11-50 are more likely to play 51-200 than they are to play the top 1-50 and so on. It's only the middle part of the bell-curve of player skill that you're statistically likely to have opponents that are on average exactly your skill level. You have to remember that the # of people with say 400 Diamond points is significantly more than the # of people with 500 diamond points, but those groups of players are still close enough to be matched. So what happens is players play people that they're slightly favored to beat (say 57% likely as the racial win %s for diamond show) because when searching for a game it's more likely for a player at the top to match a player slightly below them. To put it another way, even though behind the scenes it's the same effect, players in platinum may play vs diamond players as their rating streaks up. On the other end there's no one better than diamond to come down and play diamond. If you looked at map win %s of Platinum or Gold they'd be much closer to 50%. If you looked at map win %s of Bronze they'd average slightly below 50%. This sounds like it's largely about overall win % and it is. If diamond players are winning 57% of their games how could they possible have an average of 50% win rate on the maps. That'd be mathematically impossible. Now the larger the bell curve (more players that play) the less the bell curve dips off. So right now it's a 7% difference for top players. Come release that may shrink down to 1%-5%, but it'll still exist.
I still think with a large enough player base it will be a negligible difference, assuming the matchmaking system has no trouble matching players with similar skill levels, then maybe only the top 10 players out of say 1000 will have a significant over 50% win rate. Let's be realistic, these top players will never get matched against some plat league. As long as they play against other diamond league players, 1 win = 1 loss = 50% win rate in diamond league.
Edit: You probably get matched to plat if you are on the lower quantile of the diamond league and the plat player is about to get promoted. This is where I think could potentially cause some biases.
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On July 17 2010 01:50 Logo wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2010 01:44 Paramore wrote:
This data is completely useless.. It just proves that Diamond players across all races play more non-diamond players than other Diamond players, otherwise there wouldn't be 50+% for every single race across every single map (with the exception of 2 zerg maps) . That's not at all what it proves or says. Every diamond vs diamond game drives the rating towards 50% win. Every diamond vs non-diamond game drives it away from that 50% by some unspecified amount based on how likely a diamond is to beat a non-diamond. Here's an example... If a diamond pool has 2000 games vs diamond players and 1000 games vs non-diamond players with a 75% win rate then the pool's win % is 55% while 2/3rds of the games were played diamond vs diamond. If the win rate vs non-diamonds is higher than 75% then you could have 57% with an even higher % of games being diamond vs diamond.
I hope the matchmaking wouldn't create 1000 games vs non-diamond players unless the non-diamond players are playing at diamond level and eventually becomes the diamond pool.
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I don't know how much this means, because I thought the pros agreed that Metalopolis is a zerg favored map, and that Kulas is a pretty bad map for zerg,
Zerg on Metalopolis : 49.93 %
Zerg on Kulas Ravine : 54.56%
There might be too many bronze players messing up the stats to find anything useful
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You're putting too much stock into leagues. Leagues are an arbitrary division on a match making rating. Some of those players may eventually become diamond, many of them will play a diamond, lose, and drop in rating.
Think of it like this. You have score x that's your rating, this rating goes up and down based on wins and losses as 0-sum* (every point you lose your opponent gains). Because it does this a bell curve forms of player's ratings. When you matchmake you're targets for a game are x +/- z. When we take an arbitrary division of the top # of players (diamond) there are more players with x-z than there are x+z. So a diamond level player plays more favored match-ups than they do unfavored. That's really all it comes down to with the >50% win rates.
*even if it's not 0-sum it should still form a bell curve or possibly a slightly skewed bell curve.
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See this is where I don't understand why the x-z should happen. As number of players approach a large sum, z should approach 0 by fundamental calculus. There's no reason you would match 2 players with completely different skill sets to create a 5% win difference when there are enough players in all spectrum of skill levels. I think it happens here because the number of people in beta is too small.
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On July 17 2010 01:56 MattDamon wrote:
I don't know how much this means, because I thought the pros agreed that Metalopolis is a zerg favored map, and that Kulas is a pretty bad map for zerg,
Zerg on Metalopolis : 49.93 %
Zerg on Kulas Ravine : 54.56%
There might be too many bronze players messing up the stats to find anything useful
The map win percentage data is from Diamond players' match histories only. Granted, their opponents could be from Bronze but does that really skew the stats since they get an equal amount of noobs on other maps as well? 
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On July 17 2010 01:56 MattDamon wrote:
Zerg on Metalopolis : 49.93 %
Zerg on Kulas Ravine : 54.56%
As a zerg player, I find this really strange.
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On July 17 2010 01:50 Logo wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2010 01:44 Paramore wrote:
This data is completely useless.. It just proves that Diamond players across all races play more non-diamond players than other Diamond players, otherwise there wouldn't be 50+% for every single race across every single map (with the exception of 2 zerg maps) . That's not at all what it proves or says. Every diamond vs diamond game drives the rating towards 50% win. Every diamond vs non-diamond game drives it away from that 50% by some unspecified amount based on how likely a diamond is to beat a non-diamond. Here's an example... If a diamond pool has 2000 games vs diamond players and 1000 games vs non-diamond players with a 75% win rate then the pool's win % is 55% while 2/3rds of the games were played diamond vs diamond. If the win rate vs non-diamonds is higher than 75% then you could have 57% with an even higher % of games being diamond vs diamond.
Well, neither of us know what the frequency of diamond vs diamond and diamond vs non-diamond.. so that information becomes even more ambiguous and useless.... it could even be possible that non-diamond win vs diamond more often than diamond win vs non-diamond lol... I'm not saying that is the case, but we actually don't know anything from this information.
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On July 17 2010 05:15 Paramore wrote:
Well, neither of us know what the frequency of diamond vs diamond and diamond vs non-diamond.. so that information becomes even more ambiguous and useless.... it could even be possible that non-diamond win vs diamond more often than diamond win vs non-diamond lol... I'm not saying that is the case, but we actually don't know anything from this information.
.......???
So you know that across all leagues, a race has 50% win. You know that diamond players of that race have ~57% win. And you say that from this we can't say if dias win vs non-dias more often than not? Please elaborate how the percentage discrepancy is possible if dias don't win against non-dias more often than not. Or tell me what I misunderstood.
Anyhow, the main point here is the dia race avg ratings and dia map win percentages... As that's the only stuff with a really sufficient sample size. Plus the only things that people (other than the "0mg ter4n has 80% win r31t agenst all and 73% of dias is ter4n" folk) didn't already know
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On July 17 2010 05:57 Silu wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2010 05:15 Paramore wrote:
Well, neither of us know what the frequency of diamond vs diamond and diamond vs non-diamond.. so that information becomes even more ambiguous and useless.... it could even be possible that non-diamond win vs diamond more often than diamond win vs non-diamond lol... I'm not saying that is the case, but we actually don't know anything from this information.
.......??? So you know that across all leagues, a race has 50% win. You know that diamond players of that race have ~57% win. And you say that from this we can't say if dias win vs non-dias more often than not? Please elaborate how the percentage discrepancy is possible if dias don't win against non-dias more often than not. Or tell me what I misunderstood. Anyhow, the main point here is the dia race avg ratings and dia map win percentages... As that's the only stuff with a really sufficient sample size. Plus the only things that people (other than the "0mg ter4n has 80% win r31t agenst all and 73% of dias is ter4n" folk) didn't already know
We really don't know how many diamond vs non-diamond there are.. or diamond vs diamond...
there are many different possibilities to come up with the current map %... plus.. maybe non-diamond thumb down metropolis more often than diamonds... thats even more of a variable, but have fun at sifting through the information... i'm not hear to judge, i'm just saying the information cannot conclude anything
your 2nd paragraph doesn't even make sense. maybe try english...
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Some of the zerg map statics look weird indeed. As zerg I've shut down steppes/kulas/DO because first two I feel are really bad for someone who enjoys zerg macroing, and DO cos it's just bad map. So I feel most happy playing LT,meta,scrap and blistering, and I'd assume I have clearly highest win% on those also. I understand low % on LT since cliffs can be abused pretty hard, but meta definately seems top2 map for zvt. You can't nicely take gold there, but other than that there are no terran imbalance showing much. I have to assume the amount of games or something just isn't wide enough yet.
Come to think of it, meta close ground spawns are pretty bad for zerg though, similar to steppes. That could be partial reason for low win%. But Kulas having high win% just shows how very few terran is abusing the map properly. Should not be possible for equivalent players getting over 50% there in zvt.
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Updated with EU data. Zergs will find that it corresponds much better with the "baseline feeling", with Kulas at 47.6% and DO at 54.3% being the worst and best.
Interesting to note how Blistering Sands is clearly the worst map for Terrans in both EU and US, sitting at ~3% less than the second worst. Guess that back door really hurts the turtling Also, Protosses still don't seem to give a damn about which map they're playing on with regards to win percentage.
Also added amounts of win/loss to show what maps people thumb down - again, all games counted are Diamond (possibly vs non-Diamond) games. Not surprisingly DO has about 40% less games played on it than the others. Almost as few Kulas games for Zerg
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Nice to see Terran on EU with average rating over 10 points above the other 2.
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EPT
