EPTDatamined Game Win/Loss Statistics - Page 2
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3clipse
Canada2555 Posts
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koppik
United States676 Posts
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EccoEcco
United States61 Posts
On July 16 2010 04:16 Chriamon wrote: I think some of this data is going to be misinterpreted. Having similar overall win % doesn't mean much. You should only count games that are vs other diamond players, and go by specific matchups as well. While I'll agree that this isn't end all be all data (Certainly, the sample size is still small), actual data from aggregate results is a lot more significant than the anecdotal evidence that's been dominating the discussion thus far. A little induction would suggest it means each race has a success rate against the other two races that averages out equally. (TvP + TvZ)/2 = (PvT + PvZ)/2 = (ZvT + ZvP)/2 with a deviation of <2% at both diamond level and general play. That means that if Terran were truly overpowered against Zerg and dominating that match-up, then Terran would have to be equally underpowered against Protoss to generate such a close winning percentage to the other 2 races. Until that result is ruled out, its a possibility and Rock>Paper>Scissor is not the intended balance, but I for one, would be surprised if that were the case. Particularly because of how consistent the numbers are at both the general and top level. | ||
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muffley
United States280 Posts
EDIT: Global ladder information is possible too, I guess. | ||
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ashaman771
Canada114 Posts
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Logo
United States7542 Posts
On July 16 2010 04:58 EccoEcco wrote: While I'll agree that this isn't end all be all data (Certainly, the sample size is still small), actual data from aggregate results is a lot more significant than the anecdotal evidence that's been dominating the discussion thus far. A little induction would suggest it means each race has a success rate against the other two races that averages out equally. (TvP + TvZ)/2 = (PvT + PvZ)/2 = (ZvT + ZvP)/2 with a deviation of <2% at both diamond level and general play. That means that if Terran were truly overpowered against Zerg and dominating that match-up, then Terran would have to be equally underpowered against Protoss to generate such a close winning percentage to the other 2 races. Until that result is ruled out, its a possibility and Rock>Paper>Scissor is not the intended balance, but I for one, would be surprised if that were the case. Particularly because of how consistent the numbers are at both the general and top level. There's more to it than that because it assumes that all races are rated equally. The matchmaking system works to ensure 50% win ratios. If we want to use this kind of information it has to be based on things like average player ratings by race or some aggregate stat like average player rating/# of games | ||
Excalibur_Z
United States12279 Posts
On July 16 2010 04:36 3clipse wrote: Nice stuff. Confirms the change I thought occurred- Diamond is now top 10% rather than 20%. How is that a change? According to my estimate it's always been this way... | ||
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duBstar
United States57 Posts
On July 16 2010 05:11 ashaman771 wrote: What site is this information coming from?? The official beta website from battle.net | ||
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MangoTango
United States3670 Posts
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Alou
United States3748 Posts
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Silu
Finland165 Posts
On July 16 2010 04:20 Logo wrote: Any chance you could release the program and/or run the same on US and Asia? Even better if you make it an open source program on something like github or sourceforge so more people can pitch in on it. Yeah my intention was to run it for US and Asia as well, currently doing US as I finished iterating through 10k EU profile numbers (got around 6k actual hits = profiles with 1v1 games played). Takes forever though, for a great part because of the subpar implementation I guess  As I said I just threw it together to get some funny numbers fast, I'm sort of a sucker for statistics as well.I don't think what was used here is very useful as a baseline for more extensive analysis as the HTML parsing is very quick&dirty  Anyhow if someone is really interested the (Java) code is here.what website is this data from? http://beta-eu.battle.net/sc2/en/ - the profile URLs are of type http://beta-eu.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/PROFILE_NUMBER/1/ , where PROFILE_NUMBER is simply a (roughly) sequential index starting from 1 so it's possible to iterate through them. | ||
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oursblanc
Canada1450 Posts
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Excalibur_Z
United States12279 Posts
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Silu
Finland165 Posts
On July 16 2010 05:22 Excalibur_Z wrote: Silu, thanks for the data. Could you parse through the leagues to determine the number of players in each league? I'd like to update my ladder analysis post with confirmed results beyond the diamond level. Hmm, you mean just the amount of players in each of Bronze/Silver/Gold/Plat/Dia? From the EU data I gathered already, this is the distribution: Bronze: 1424 Silver: 1579 Gold: 1795 Platinum: 584 Diamond: 600 Probably very skewed from the very low amount of games played and the vast majority of people going in Bronze/Silver/Gold from placement matches. | ||
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Excalibur_Z
United States12279 Posts
On July 16 2010 05:38 Silu wrote: Hmm, you mean just the amount of players in each of Bronze/Silver/Gold/Plat/Dia? From the EU data I gathered already, this is the distribution: Bronze: 1424 Silver: 1579 Gold: 1795 Platinum: 584 Diamond: 600 Probably very skewed from the very low amount of games played and the vast majority of people going in Bronze/Silver/Gold from placement matches. Yeah I don't see anything conclusive yet, we'll probably just have to wait for more data. It would be pretty strange to have them 10%/10%/30%/25%/25%. Diamond makes sense because you have to be promoted into it, but we may have to wait a few more days to get some more concrete info about the other leagues. Thanks! | ||
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NuKedUFirst
Canada3139 Posts
On July 16 2010 04:14 jamesr12 wrote: 350 just add them up Other interesting things: 350/3151 = 11% so diamond leauge is around 11% of all players 19933 total games played in diamond leauge, that is 28.475 games per player in diamond. note: 2 players in each game !!!!! These statistics diamond league is hilarious I mean seriously.. the # of baddies i've met in the ladder so far..too funny, I'm surprised they are in the 11%.. around a 50% win ratio all round..I'd say that is pretty balanced. On July 16 2010 05:38 Silu wrote: Hmm, you mean just the amount of players in each of Bronze/Silver/Gold/Plat/Dia? From the EU data I gathered already, this is the distribution: Bronze: 1424 Silver: 1579 Gold: 1795 Platinum: 584 Diamond: 600 Probably very skewed from the very low amount of games played and the vast majority of people going in Bronze/Silver/Gold from placement matches. It's kinda funny how the drop off is regardless of placement. | ||
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professorjoak
318 Posts
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EccoEcco
United States61 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On July 16 2010 05:16 Logo wrote: On July 16 2010 04:58 EccoEcco wrote: While I'll agree that this isn't end all be all data (Certainly, the sample size is still small), actual data from aggregate results is a lot more significant than the anecdotal evidence that's been dominating the discussion thus far. A little induction would suggest it means each race has a success rate against the other two races that averages out equally. (TvP + TvZ)/2 = (PvT + PvZ)/2 = (ZvT + ZvP)/2 with a deviation of <2% at both diamond level and general play. That means that if Terran were truly overpowered against Zerg and dominating that match-up, then Terran would have to be equally underpowered against Protoss to generate such a close winning percentage to the other 2 races. Until that result is ruled out, its a possibility and Rock>Paper>Scissor is not the intended balance, but I for one, would be surprised if that were the case. Particularly because of how consistent the numbers are at both the general and top level. There's more to it than that because it assumes that all races are rated equally. The matchmaking system works to ensure 50% win ratios. If we want to use this kind of information it has to be based on things like average player ratings by race or some aggregate stat like average player rating/# of games Curses, i totally forgot about the matchmaking system and its nefarious data skewing. WTB complete access to back end data... and a monogrammed white lab coat. | ||
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Keitzer
United States2509 Posts
On July 16 2010 04:14 jamesr12 wrote: 350 just add them up Other interesting things: 350/3151 = 11% so diamond leauge is around 11% of all players 19933 total games played in diamond leauge, that is 28.475 games per player in diamond. note: 2 players in each game eh, im guessing its a flat 10%, but b/c its group based and not rating based, its more/less 10% | ||
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Gescom
Canada3525 Posts
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