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Twinkle Toes
United States3605 Posts
Kevin Durant Stops Worrying, and Can’t Stop Scoring ![[image loading]](https://static01.nyt.com/images/2018/05/07/sports/07NBA-PRINT/07NBA-PRINT-superJumbo.jpg?quality=90&auto=webp) “I just try to tell myself that I’m at my best when I don’t care what happens after the game, the outcome or anything,” Durant said. “That’s when I’m free and having fun out there, and forceful.” “Just find ways to get him in scoring positions,” said Curry, who had 23 points. “Sometimes, that’s not really hard to do — just throw it to him.” NYTimes | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada18057 Posts
Raptors Fire Casey. The Raptors have ZERO top 4 draft picks on their roster and ONE top 5 pick... JV. The team is a bunch of hard working, low ceiling players. Casey maxed out the talent he was given. http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23471720/toronto-raptors-fire-head-coach-dwane-casey-7-seasons i wonder if Ujiri is reacting to pressure from the MLSE "board". That pressure would not exist if Lewieke were still there. | ||
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xwoGworwaTsx
United States984 Posts
On May 12 2018 00:57 ZenithM wrote: It's a simplistic view to say that "3s and layups exclusively" is the best "statistical model" (that doesn't mean anything btw...) for a basketball game. You don't just look at the expected value of the variable "my team makes a 3" and call it a day. What teams know is that generating 3s is better than generating long 2s, but you don't generate them by simply saying "shoot 3s and layups, guys!!!". If any team could magically instantly implement what Houston is doing they would. The league as a whole will probably get quickly better at generating even more 3 point looks going forward, sure, but that doesn't mean everything else will be completely forgotten. For one thing, "draw fouls like crazy" actually isn't a good gameplan. Only elite players are good at drawing fouls like you want them to (to the point of "milking the FT line"). And in the future if teams listen to you and choose to "milk the FT line" you can be sure that the league's refereeing will adjust to that. Statistical model "In simple terms, statistical modeling is a simplified, mathematically-formalized way to approximate reality (i.e. what generates your data) and optionally to make predictions from this approximation. " we are talking about 3 and layup as a general approach and not a total 100% of the possession teams should do. you are missing a key element here. teams follow trends. and now that number crunching is one of the most valuable assets that teams practice, most realize that this is the best way and and more will adopt. you can draw a straight line from the dantoni suns, 3 and d spurs, warriors, cavs 2016, rockets and wannabe teams now like portland and sixers. i am not saying this is absolute and that all nba teams should follow but im saying that the math holds. whether the teams can approximate the variables is the question. | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada18057 Posts
when a good measure becomes the target...it ceases to be a good measure. goodhart's law. this happened with the trend of baseball teams trying to draw a million walks and it might start happening now with basketball teams adopting "3 or Dunk" offenses. | ||
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Twinkle Toes
United States3605 Posts
On May 12 2018 01:13 xwoGworwaTsx wrote: Statistical model "In simple terms, statistical modeling is a simplified, mathematically-formalized way to approximate reality (i.e. what generates your data) and optionally to make predictions from this approximation. " we are talking about 3 and layup as a general approach and not a total 100% of the possession teams should do. you are missing a key element here. teams follow trends. and now that number crunching is one of the most valuable assets that teams practice, most realize that this is the best way and and more will adopt. you can draw a straight line from the dantoni suns, 3 and d spurs, warriors, cavs 2016, rockets and wannabe teams now like portland and sixers. i am not saying this is absolute and that all nba teams should follow but im saying that the math holds. whether the teams can approximate the variables is the question. Zenith makes some good points. Teams and rules will adjust, as they always have. The meta of the game is fluid. When you say that the math holds, do you mean that that is the ideas basketball game in a vacuum or based on actual data from player performances and teams? | ||
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xwoGworwaTsx
United States984 Posts
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xwoGworwaTsx
United States984 Posts
iirc it plots the best position of the players based both on ideal and actual profile and creds of average players in the nba that are engineered to play the system within reasonable bounds. | ||
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Twinkle Toes
United States3605 Posts
On May 12 2018 01:21 xwoGworwaTsx wrote: and just like that casey is out! I think Casey is the only coach-firing done this season? It's a remarkable development since the last coach-firing frenzy in the last couple of years, snowballing from the Blatt firing. | ||
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andrewlt
United States7702 Posts
I'm curious when we're going to see a team take the extreme Rockets approach on defense. I don't think anybody has tried it yet. | ||
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ZenithM
France15952 Posts
we are talking about 3 and layup as a general approach and not a total 100% of the possession teams should do. Then I mostly agree, in that I think in the future systems are going to use the midrange or post proficiency (of some of their players) as a way to get to that "3s or layup" goal. You don't have to shoot high volume of them for these so-called unefficient shots to still be a threat and open up your game in more ways. There won't ever be a point where if you take a midrange shot, the defender looks at you, scoffs, adjusts his monocle, gets out of your way with a "go ahead and shoot that, mister!". Also, a lot of 3s right now are created through the use of picks and using a switch to create a mismatch to your advantage. You're arguing that we're only going to see Durant-like tall wings that can do mostly everything in the future, yet this directly conflicts with this mean of abusing the defense. If everybody fields the same kind of tall wings that can do everything, then defense will figure out that switching everything is the way to go and it might even hurt enough the "3s or layup" offense that people go back to something else (like big behemoths again). Point is, we're neither at the point where you find 5 Durants growing on trees, nor at the point where the midrange is completely useless. | ||
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xwoGworwaTsx
United States984 Posts
i said possessions just will be faster because there is no need to dribble so much to create space for a drive or shot or to show off handles. an optimum possession would be lets say we start at half inbound, 1. player asseses d, if he has enough room in the 3, shoot 1.1 d doubles, pass until the cascade opens to the most available man 2. player asseses d, he can take on the single d and the interior is open, drive 2.1. d doubles, again a pass or series of passes to the best open man 3. high screen, pnr for 3, assess the reaction and go to 1 or 2. and this happens within 10 or so seconds. no more kyrie or westbrook or kobe type iso plays. perimeter iso shot, pick and pop midrange shoots, will be generally discouraged. every touch is either to immediately shoot or draw defender then pass. imagine euro ball but more athletic. remember also, barely 5 years ago, the 3 point game we have now is unimaginable. now no one is surprised if ad or embiid shoots the three, they are even expected to do and make them. and this is not an accident. it is not a result of teams waiting for a players with the specific skillset. it is not accident that harden shoots a lot of threes and draws a lot of fouls. him, ariza, battier, draymond, embiid, nowitzki, and others are talent enhanced by sports data integrated into player development. soon, this system of player development will be universal with particular consideration to a players natural skills and preferences. | ||
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xwoGworwaTsx
United States984 Posts
shaq type behemoth players who dominate the post will never be in fashion again unless shooting skills drastically declines. two things killed that type of player. first shooting accuracy increased and became more widespread across players of any possession.. second defense now are more sophisticated and effective than in the 90s, regardless of what oldies claim that league is softer now and big men will crush the defense. teams will still benefit from the offense from the behemoth player but not at the level of shaq eating everyone in the low block, but defensively, the team might as well play 4 vs 5. there may be many adjustments and counters to the new 3 or layup game but going big behemoths is not one of them. | ||
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cLutZ
United States19574 Posts
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xwoGworwaTsx
United States984 Posts
On May 12 2018 02:06 andrewlt wrote: The general approach of 3s, layups and free throws work. You just can't do it on every possession because what the offense knows, the defense knows as well. first sentence is correct. but second sentence, data is that early in the possession and in transition offense is at the advantage because the defense is still just reactive and offense can create chaos. but the longer the possession takes, defense gets the advantage because it can settle and read the offense correctly as you said and even lead them to managable traps. | ||
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xwoGworwaTsx
United States984 Posts
On May 12 2018 17:04 cLutZ wrote: If you are right it will necessitate another set of rule changes ala 2004. The game you describe is super boring as an entertainment product. There are already rumblings. Unless a team breaks the mould ala 1990s bulls, it will happen quickly. ye, and rules always change along with playstyles so that is expected. boring is a matter of preference. imagine a rockets style game but with more pick and roll dunks and drive and kick 3s and quick iso 3s farther and farther out of the arc and even more accurate. imo with this kind of game the post up game and the dribble dribble perimeter shot will be the boring part of the game. | ||
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cLutZ
United States19574 Posts
On May 12 2018 17:19 xwoGworwaTsx wrote: ye, and rules always change along with playstyles so that is expected. boring is a matter of preference. imagine a rockets style game but with more pick and roll dunks and drive and kick 3s and quick iso 3s farther and farther out of the arc and even more accurate. imo with this kind of game the post up game and the dribble dribble perimeter shot will be the boring part of the game. Pro sports' appeal is generally about the players doing things we normals can't do. The old man shooting 3s at the Y is a trope for a reason, and its because we don't like to see it (just like we don't like how 6-10 yard passes are starting to dominate in the NFL). | ||
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xwoGworwaTsx
United States984 Posts
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cLutZ
United States19574 Posts
Offense and orchestration are cheap highs unless we see it beating quality physicality and defense. | ||
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xwoGworwaTsx
United States984 Posts
as i said earlier im not saying 100 possessions are 3s but that offense will be designed mostly on that scheme. presently houston has it at around 46%, so it could be pushed to 55-60% and still have room for others. yeah they break the mold now but they will be the standard in the future. your argument sims to be that you think and like physicality over long range shooting. doesnt mean that you like it others do as well. im not saying one is more preferable than the other even if personally i enjoy a burst of houston or curry and thompson bombing the hell out of the opponent behind the arc in the 3rd and blowing the game wide open. my original statement is that models show that the most efficient way to score and play the game based on existing data is 3 and layup and ft heavy offense. and interpretation of this model leads us to the prediction that the best teams of the future are those that distill this system and adopt the best data points and develop the players within this system. unintended consquence will be less mid range jumpshots and physical post ups. | ||
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Twinkle Toes
United States3605 Posts
What everyone is arguing here is that that kind of basketball that you describe is more like NBA 2K and runs against the spirit of basketball as a display of athleticism and physical grace, strength, and control. Moreover, in the system that you describe, so much will be lost of things that are both eye-candy to spectators and a means for players to display skills. This include Kobe's shimmy and fadeaway moves, Kyrie's handles, Hakeem's dream shake, among many. In the end, NBA is a business product, and the market always self-regulates. If fans want to watch teams shoot 70 threes a game, then NBA will go with it. If not, rules will be enforced to make the game watchable even in contrast to whatever teams deem as a perfect statistical model of winning games. | ||
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