EPT[GSL] Oct Code S RO32 Day 3 - Page 2
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cmen15
United States1519 Posts
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gullberg
Sweden1301 Posts
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VirGin
Norway278 Posts
Group F pretty weak I think, but hard to predict because of it. Happy looking a touch better than the other 3 though, I think. | ||
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Indrium
United States2236 Posts
Group E July has a much better chance of making it through if he doesn't have to play Losira. With an absolutely abysmal ZVZ record and Losira's remarkably good ZVZ, that would be pretty awful for him. July went 2-0 against HongUn last time so he shouldn't have any problems here. And if he does have to play GanZi, the results with him beating Ryung last time are sort of in his favor, although you have to look at the GanZi section to be clear on why I say "sort of." HongUn is the biggest wildcard here. The thing Artosis hates and some fans love is his complete and utter lack of regard for risk taking consequences. I really don't think it'll be enough regardless. He has a losing record vs July and Losira's statistically better than July at ZVP by a ~15% margin. GanZi, well, again, is sort of a wildcard. See below. GanZi is sort of unclear here. He's got fantastic TVT that carried him through Code A a month ago, but the people he had to beat of the other races weren't that impressive. Vanvanth, FruitDealer, and Check are nowhere near as good as they used to be, and Check got really easy opponents on top of that, and that was the ro8 for GanZi. It's hard to call whether he can stand up to Code S opponents. This group could prove trouble for him, but I feel like I don't have enough to say. So I'll go with the following for the group. + Show Spoiler [Overall results] +  July <Tal'Darim Altar LE>  HongUn GanZi <Terminus RE 1.1> LosirAJuly <Metalopolis 1.1> LosirAGanZi <Dual Sight> HongUnJuly <Antiga Shipyard 1.1> HongUnLosira 2-0 July 2-1 HongUn 1-2 GanZi 0-2 But GanZi could surprise me. Group F Genius looks bad at first sight PVT if you look at his TLPD, and it kind of is. But he did well last GSL, beating Virus and losing to eventual silver medalist TOP. However, Happy had an incredible streak in the GSTL with a 3 kill in the playoffs. One of those kills was Genius. I give the edge to Happy here. If Genius plays Leenock, it's probably going to be terrible, it's both of their worst matchups. But in the ST, Genius went out 0-2 to Min, who I think is worse. So PVZ goes to Leenock. Jjakji's TVP is way too good for Genius, so he'll lose there. Happy will beat Genius, but Happy's TVZ is kind of weird. The only people he's beaten are not very good, and the only people he's lost to were the best. If he has to play Leenock, I give the edge to Leenock just because Happy's televised TVZ is so scarce. Jjaki has taken games off better players TVT, so Jjaki, but it's close. Leenock is the poster child of unlucky players that finally got into Code S. (I disagree, aside from the MKP/NesTea Up and Down that one time.) Jjakji's TVZ is pretty good. He's beat notable NSH player Seal, took a game off Losira during the Up/Down, and 2-0'd Check, who, while I did regard unfavorably earlier, had a remarkably good Up/Down run, despite not having to do much to get there. However, Leenock is pretty much regarded as a ZVT beast. The only Terran he's lost to lately is MKP. The results speak more to Leenock. Jjaki has been pretty much covered. He's good enough to beat Happy and Genius, but probably not Leenock. Therefore, the group falls, at least in my mind, as follows. + Show Spoiler [Overall results] + Genius <Metalopolis 1.1> IMHappyLeenock <Antiga Shipyard 1.1> JjakjiIMHappy <Terminus RE 1.1> Leenock Genius <Dual Sight> JjakjiIMHappy <Daybreak> JjakjiLeenock 2-0 Jjakji 2-1 Happy 1-2 Genius 0-2 Hope you enjoyed!  Critiques/feedback/debate always welcome. | ||
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00Visor
4337 Posts
On September 27 2011 05:08 Joey Wheeler wrote: Don't see Leenock not winning unless he loses to some unpredictable Genius strat Could Leenock finally get into code s? This IS Code S. And Jjakji and Happy are probably underrated. 2 up-and-coming players. Will be really interesting tomorrow. Everybody has a good shot. My picks: E: July, Ganzi F: Jjakji, Leenock | ||
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Talin
Montenegro10532 Posts
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QTIP.
United States2113 Posts
On September 27 2011 05:40 Talin wrote: Okay HongUn, your time is up. No wiggling out of it this time. I have to agree. Though I am a fan of Hongun's eccentric play-style, I really can't him surviving the up/downs this time. | ||
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MrCon
France29748 Posts
What I'm trying to say is usually in a group you can easily find the 2 better players, who'll advance no matter what will happen in the other matches. Here things could be a lot different depending of who win what (and by that I'm talking about non involved players in that particular match). ...I tried to explain 2 times and both times I think I wasn't not clear >< For instance if Jjakji wins Leenock, Happy has a lot less chances to qualify than if Leenock wins jjakji. | ||
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ramon
Germany4842 Posts
pretty sure Jjakji is gonna make it far this season | ||
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Piledriver
United States1697 Posts
On September 27 2011 05:43 QTIP. wrote: I have to agree. Though I am a fan of Hongun's eccentric play-style, I really can't him surviving the up/downs this time. Everytime you count out HongUn, he gets back up and surprises you. But then on the other hand, if you expect him to do well, he flatters to deceive. But one thing is for sure, no matter how many people count him out , he'll keep winning, and he'll keep hanging on by the skin of his teeth. I actually think he's a better toss than HuK, and most of the people who hate on HongUn are just sheeple who blindly listen to whatever Tastosis say. | ||
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MrCon
France29748 Posts
On September 27 2011 05:43 QTIP. wrote: I have to agree. Though I am a fan of Hongun's eccentric play-style, I really can't him surviving the up/downs this time. Hey, every season we all say that, and Genius and Hongun are the rare players who are here from the beginning of GSL (only 7 players can say so). (credits to ESFI World for this picture and their amazing GSL writeups) + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/88XIx.jpg) | ||
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QTIP.
United States2113 Posts
On September 27 2011 05:49 MrCon wrote: Hey, every season we all say that, and Genius and Hongun are the rare players who are here from the beginning of GSL. (credit to ESFI world for this picture and their amazing GSL writeups) + Show Spoiler + Agreed. Hongun is always terrible when you expect him to be good, and good when you expect him to get raped. So by counting him out, I've essentially granted him a pass to the Round of 16. ^^ | ||
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MrCon
France29748 Posts
On September 27 2011 05:52 QTIP. wrote: Agreed. Hongun is always terrible when you expect him to be good, and good when you expect him to get raped. So by counting him out, I've essentially granted him a pass to the Round of 16. ^^ Too much curses again :D By realizing that Hongun is always winning when we're expecting him to lose, we now think he should do well, which will make him go to the up and downs. The GSL has so much curses =) | ||
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QTIP.
United States2113 Posts
On September 27 2011 05:48 Piledriver wrote: Everytime you count out HongUn, he gets back up and surprises you. But then on the other hand, if you expect him to do well, he flatters to deceive. But one thing is for sure, no matter how many people count him out , he'll keep winning, and he'll keep hanging on by the skin of his teeth. I actually think he's a better toss than HuK, and most of the people who hate on HongUn are just sheeple who blindly listen to whatever Tastosis say. The funny thing is, the same thing happened to Tasteless. Tasteless used to fucking love Hongun, until Artosis repeatedly bashed Hongun in casts to the point that Tasteless just started echoing Artosis' comments. I still think Tasteless is a closet Hongun fan. | ||
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awesomoecalypse
United States2235 Posts
HongUn is so underrated. He's not flashy or particularly fun to watch, but he's capable of playing a lot of different styles, and all-ins a lot, without being afraid to play a macro game when he wants to. That makes him REALLY unpredictable, and he knows how to use that to his advantage. Even when his hand was injured and his mechanics were wrecked and he couldn't blink micro, he was still winning games on gamesense and decision making. His consistency in the GSL is remarkable, and he has a lot of wins over people that nobody thought he had a shot against. Genius is cocky as hell and that makes him play really risky, but he's also one of the most forward-thinking Protoss in the world. If you watch his play, he's always a couple steps ahead in the metagame. If Genius is doing something, there's a good chance that in 2 months lots of Toss will be doing it. His weakness is that a lot of the time his opponent will just decide to go kill him while he's macroing up some sick lategame-oriented strat, and he'll just die to an all-in. But with the new patch, everything is in flux, and I think that could play to Genius' advantage, because if anyone can figure out a way to take advantage of the patch before other people do, its him. I predict at least one of these Toss will make it to Ro16. | ||
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Asha
United Kingdom38156 Posts
Both groups are great tomorrow, E is stronger than F on paper, but the players look well matched in both so the groups should be competitive and there's a nice racial spread too. | ||
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Yoshi Kirishima
United States10317 Posts
go hongun !!! the new patch should help a lot | ||
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Indrium
United States2236 Posts
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xbankx
703 Posts
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LittLeD
Sweden7973 Posts
 July and Genius fiGhTinG~ | ||
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