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On June 16 2011 19:30 Azarkon wrote:
Zenio coin-flipped, but he coin-flipped with a biased coin - he won the mind games - he predicted what Idra would do, and Idra fell into these predictions.
Against anyone else, the specific coin-flips Zenio did may not have paid off, but against Idra, who Zenio has played and studied, it did.
First game, he 10 pooled on a macro map, knowing that Idra would not be able to resist 15 hatching to maximize his economy (because if there's one thing Idra fears, it's being behind on economy). Yet, even with this prediction, it was a coin-flip because Zenio had to count on scouting Idra in a timely manner. He did, and Idra lost.
Second game, they both opened "safe," and then transitioned into their techs of choice. Zenio went for ling baneling aggression, but could not do damage because Idra went the defensive counter - roaches. Idra then attacked Zenio's natural with a roach-ling timing but failed to break him because Zenio had good simcity with his spines. At this point, they were fairly even. Then Zenio coin-flipped mutas. Had Idra put down a hydra den and made a few hydras, or scouted with a speed overlord or overseer and put down some spores, Zenio would've been dead. But Zenio predicted that Idra was afraid of falling behind on roach numbers after losing a bunch during the "all-in" attack, predicted that Idra had a habit of not scouting in ZvZ and relying on standard play, and so his muta switch paid off. Idra lost.
There are two conclusions to be drawn from these games, and it's not about ZvZ. It's about Idra's play style.
It is very easy to mind game Idra because he is predictable, and he is predictable in a very specific way - he is generally not willing to coin-flip. Except for the one game against Sen, where Idra played out of his style and took Sen completely by surprise with a ling spine-crawler cheese, Idra has just about always opened defensive, "safe" builds.
Idra doesn't like to take chances, and because he doesn't like to take chances, he is often vulnerable to builds that DO take chances. What Idra does not seem to understand, or understands but refuses to change his play-style accordingly, is that while you can't win consistently with a coin-flip build against random opponents, you CAN win consistently with a coin-flip build against specific opponents (ie Idra), because no one really plays "randomly."
Consider the first game. If Idra opened 14 pool, he would've been at an advantage. But does anyone really think that Idra is going to open 14 pool 50% of the times on Terminus, and 15 hatch the other 50% of the times? Or how about the second game - was Idra going to hydra switch 50% of the times, and build drones and roaches the other 50% of the times? No, because Idra, especially, does not like coin-flipping. He has a set of responses that he considers the "best" responses to each situation and uses them. These responses, when known by the opponent, or even when not known by the opponent, can easily be used to meta-game Idra into a loss.
Mind games are a part of SC 2, and in the hands of successful players, they make "coin flips" into "calculated risks" that result, more often than not, in wins. Unfortunately, Idra has always been weak at them. That's partly why he loses more than he should and to players with worse mechanics - because they out-mind game him. Idra does not really understand, I feel, how to mind game, or perhaps it is more insightful to say that Idra's mentality towards the game does not allow him to mind game effectively.
That Idra hates playing from a position of disadvantage makes it hard for him to pull off any successful coin-flips, because whereas a player like Zenio is fine with failing a 10 pool and then playing to get back in the game (a process that usually involves doing more coin-flips), Idra is not. This is what separates Idra from many other players - the fact that he is unwilling to coin flip because he does not or cannot play from a position of disadvantage. This is, in fact, a weakness in his game no matter what Idra tries to excuse it as, because it limits his versatility as a player, and makes him predictable.
I don't know if Idra will ever get over this limitation as a player, but until he does, he's probably going to keep losing in this fashion.
That's probably the best analysis on his play i ve ever read. Good job.
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As I said the last time Zenio did this, Zenio is sick good. I don't see why people are consistently suprised by him, hes awesome.
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On June 16 2011 21:59 Trowa127 wrote:
As I said the last time Zenio did this, Zenio is sick good. I don't see why people are consistently suprised by him, hes awesome.
He's being overshadowed by NesTea and LosirA, who are way more consistent than him. Zenio always seems to maneuver himself into a position where the slightest mistake costs him the game, but an instant win if he executes his plan flawlessly.
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On June 16 2011 18:46 Koshi wrote:
SotG pillars are really falling of their pedestal after this loss. As a Starcraft history bob I always looked up to them as the Masters of SCII.
IdrA not making the top 16. Even though he told everybody NASL (and other "easy" money tournaments) was the reason he came back to NA for.
Incontrol not making the Play-offs but doing ok-ish in MLG.
Tyler not making anything.
It shatters my mind.
i really dont get it why he leave korea early,he should have finish his GSL code S since NASL will start in 1 1/2 months after GSL and he will definetly advance to r16 bacause his group is easy and maybe advance to ro8 and he will earn easy money. sorry for my english
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Used to be a big Idra fan... not anymore. He needs to man up and have some respect for his opponents/peers.
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On June 16 2011 21:33 nvrs wrote:Show nested quote +On June 16 2011 19:30 Azarkon wrote:
Zenio coin-flipped, but he coin-flipped with a biased coin - he won the mind games - he predicted what Idra would do, and Idra fell into these predictions.
Against anyone else, the specific coin-flips Zenio did may not have paid off, but against Idra, who Zenio has played and studied, it did.
First game, he 10 pooled on a macro map, knowing that Idra would not be able to resist 15 hatching to maximize his economy (because if there's one thing Idra fears, it's being behind on economy). Yet, even with this prediction, it was a coin-flip because Zenio had to count on scouting Idra in a timely manner. He did, and Idra lost.
Second game, they both opened "safe," and then transitioned into their techs of choice. Zenio went for ling baneling aggression, but could not do damage because Idra went the defensive counter - roaches. Idra then attacked Zenio's natural with a roach-ling timing but failed to break him because Zenio had good simcity with his spines. At this point, they were fairly even. Then Zenio coin-flipped mutas. Had Idra put down a hydra den and made a few hydras, or scouted with a speed overlord or overseer and put down some spores, Zenio would've been dead. But Zenio predicted that Idra was afraid of falling behind on roach numbers after losing a bunch during the "all-in" attack, predicted that Idra had a habit of not scouting in ZvZ and relying on standard play, and so his muta switch paid off. Idra lost.
There are two conclusions to be drawn from these games, and it's not about ZvZ. It's about Idra's play style.
It is very easy to mind game Idra because he is predictable, and he is predictable in a very specific way - he is generally not willing to coin-flip. Except for the one game against Sen, where Idra played out of his style and took Sen completely by surprise with a ling spine-crawler cheese, Idra has just about always opened defensive, "safe" builds.
Idra doesn't like to take chances, and because he doesn't like to take chances, he is often vulnerable to builds that DO take chances. What Idra does not seem to understand, or understands but refuses to change his play-style accordingly, is that while you can't win consistently with a coin-flip build against random opponents, you CAN win consistently with a coin-flip build against specific opponents (ie Idra), because no one really plays "randomly."
Consider the first game. If Idra opened 14 pool, he would've been at an advantage. But does anyone really think that Idra is going to open 14 pool 50% of the times on Terminus, and 15 hatch the other 50% of the times? Or how about the second game - was Idra going to hydra switch 50% of the times, and build drones and roaches the other 50% of the times? No, because Idra, especially, does not like coin-flipping. He has a set of responses that he considers the "best" responses to each situation and uses them. These responses, when known by the opponent, or even when not known by the opponent, can easily be used to meta-game Idra into a loss.
Mind games are a part of SC 2, and in the hands of successful players, they make "coin flips" into "calculated risks" that result, more often than not, in wins. Unfortunately, Idra has always been weak at them. That's partly why he loses more than he should and to players with worse mechanics - because they out-mind game him. Idra does not really understand, I feel, how to mind game, or perhaps it is more insightful to say that Idra's mentality towards the game does not allow him to mind game effectively.
That Idra hates playing from a position of disadvantage makes it hard for him to pull off any successful coin-flips, because whereas a player like Zenio is fine with failing a 10 pool and then playing to get back in the game (a process that usually involves doing more coin-flips), Idra is not. This is what separates Idra from many other players - the fact that he is unwilling to coin flip because he does not or cannot play from a position of disadvantage. This is, in fact, a weakness in his game no matter what Idra tries to excuse it as, because it limits his versatility as a player, and makes him predictable.
I don't know if Idra will ever get over this limitation as a player, but until he does, he's probably going to keep losing in this fashion. That's probably the best analysis on his play i ve ever read. Good job.
I would completely agree with this. Or moreover, it seems that Idra is just simply not completely wary of everything that will work. Basically, Idra's playstyle would work, but dare I say it, Idra's simply not smart enough to handle the way his playstyle works (but even computers aren't, as the problem of taking each branch is essentially going down an exponentially growing tree). Yes, if he EVER tries to "if then, if then" the way his opponent goes and takes the worst case scenario, he would win.
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On June 16 2011 21:26 lazyfeet wrote:Show nested quote +On June 16 2011 21:06 MrCon wrote:
One thing is funny, NASL choose all the koreans based on skill (but low skill) but they're still here :
- rainbow and ensnare : picked because they were bad (worst players of all terran candidates)
- nada and boxer : picked because of their popularity and their average sc2 skills, perfect candidates (but since that time Nada has became really good and Boxer is good enough to cruise his way in the group of death). Can still be considered legit invites.
- zenio : was considered bad at the time they took him. "Sadly", he's now very good.
- moon and july : like nada and boxer, picked because of their star power combined with being bad players. Too bad July is now a beast and Moon own white dudes.
- squirtle and ace : average protoss but still legit picks at the time of invites.
- MC : legit pick too + star power.
So, of 10 Koreans, 7 were picked because they were bad enough (at that time) to not pwn everyone while still bringing a lot of viewers.
(when I say someone is "bad" it's relative to average korean skill or how they were considered at the time they were picked, except the first 2).
You can't say nada is average since he is the most consistent player in gsl. July wasn't consider a bad player when they pick him. If you look at it squirtle and ace did the worst in gsl but were picked because of IEM exposure. They obvious pick the korean players all based on their popularity.
That's what I said, they choose based on a popularity/bad play. July wasn't really bad at that time, just considered cheesy and not solid. Nada was considered good, but far from his current form and skill.
And Squirtle and Ace I said were legit pick (by legit I mean skill wise)
When you look at the list of candidates (youtube applications) and compare to the list of accepted players, the low skill requirement (for terrans, as Z and P didn't had lots of applicants) becomes apparent. (I don't really say that as a criticism, it's understandable) I just wanted to say that it was not expected that korean do so well.
 North American Star League/Applications
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On June 16 2011 19:30 Azarkon wrote:
Second game, they both opened "safe," and then transitioned into their techs of choice. Zenio went for ling baneling aggression, but could not do damage because Idra went the defensive counter - roaches. Idra then attacked Zenio's natural with a roach-ling timing but failed to break him because Zenio had good simcity with his spines. At this point, they were fairly even. Then Zenio coin-flipped mutas. Had Idra put down a hydra den and made a few hydras, or scouted with a speed overlord or overseer and put down some spores, Zenio would've been dead. But Zenio predicted that Idra was afraid of falling behind on roach numbers after losing a bunch during the "all-in" attack, predicted that Idra had a habit of not scouting in ZvZ and relying on standard play, and so his muta switch paid off. Idra lost.
No, this is simply untrue. First, Idra does NOT have a habit of not scouting, he does so fairly persistently, including in ZvZ. In this game Zenio kept the pressure on him with the forward Ling/Roach/Bling force he kept poking with, and went Overlord hunting with his queen, leaving Idra in the dark.
Second of all, people in this thread are exaggerating the effect of the opponent seeing the Mutas coming and switching to Hydras to counter it, like it's a guaranteed loss, it's not. We just saw this in the game between Junwi and Curious on Tal'Darim in iCCup Korean Weekly. Junwi saw the Mutas coming, and built Hydras, but Curious just used the Mutas for harass and map control, and was able to expand more easily because of it, because Hydras, while they do counter Mutas, are very immobile.
Edit: Didn't Zenio also go Mutas in one of their games during the league, and Idra spotted it that time and got Hydras, and Zenio still won? It's not by any means an auto-loss. It was the game on Shattered Temple wasn't it?
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Love it how there always must be a reason why Idra loses, he isnt as good as he thinks he is. Simple as that.
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Cmon Idra WTF. I want him to beat Zenio so bad.
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On June 16 2011 23:00 DyEnasTy wrote:
Cmon Idra WTF. I want him to beat Zenio so bad.
Cmon DyEnasTy WTF. Who do you think Zenio is and why do you think Idra leave Korea? Idra is 0-6 against him; no reason to believe Idra's improved.
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I assume that since Idra won, Zenio must have killed his initial hatch with drones and hid an extractor at an expansion. Idra saw the broodlings and just decided it was too much for him and he gg'd. Is this close to what happened?
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On June 16 2011 20:48 Bobster wrote:
daaaaaamn Idra not making the Top 16 finals is a pretty huge surprise.
Well, I guess there's always next season for him.
Why is that such a surprise, when he lost against Korean? Isn't that a given?
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On June 16 2011 18:46 Koshi wrote:
IdrA not making the top 16. Even though he told everybody NASL (and other "easy" money tournaments) was the reason he came back to NA for.
Incontrol not making the Play-offs but doing ok-ish in MLG.
Tyler not making anything.
It shatters my mind.
Your mind is not too knowledgeable about the SC2 pro scene then. In any tournaments that has Koreans in it, EG players would lose. Incontrol lost horribly when he played against Koreans in MLG, Idra eventually 2-4 lost to MC and 0-6 lost to Zenio, given history. They cannot defeat Koreans in do-or-die situation; common knowledge at this point.
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Good games...
but seriously, what was up with those casters? hands down they sucked, unfortunately.
they didnt have no sense for the game whatsoever, and was flooding us with comments after comments that were completely stupid and/or wrong
give me incontrol and gretorp !
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these getting restreamed for the EU?
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On June 16 2011 23:40 magh wrote:
Good games...
but seriously, what was up with those casters? hands down they sucked, unfortunately.
they didnt have no sense for the game whatsoever, and was flooding us with comments after comments that were completely stupid and/or wrong
give me incontrol and gretorp !
Blasphemy!
Diggity and Moletrap are legends of starcraft commentating.
Anyway, not really surprised Idra got eliminated.
Group 5 was a tough group and Idra didn't have what it took to get out of that group.
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On June 16 2011 23:46 Liudo wrote:
these getting restreamed for the EU?
Yeah, 7 pm CEST
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On June 16 2011 16:40 Mailing wrote:Show nested quote +On June 16 2011 16:34 Officedrone wrote:
According to IdrA:
ZvP - "Zerg isn't supposed to beat Protoss", and "Against Protoss, you're always 1 click away from losing"
ZvZ - It's a coinflip no matter what you do
ZvT - As long as Terran doesn't "cheese" I win. With cheese meaning "doesn't do any pressure for 15-20 min"
Besides the obvious hyperbole you used to be snide, a lot of other pro player share this sentiment. Do you not hear the sadness in their voices when reminiscing about brood war?
The sadness in their voices... yeah, that pretty much confirms it.
Let's not forget that Idra did have similar views on balance in BW. It's just his defence mechanism and really shouldn't be taken too seriously.
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So has Zenio officially surpassed Idra when we talk about the Zerg pecking order?
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EPT
