EPTOn June 16 2011 19:30 Azarkon wrote:
Zenio coin-flipped, but he coin-flipped with a biased coin - he won the mind games - he predicted what Idra would do, and Idra fell into these predictions.
Against anyone else, the specific coin-flips Zenio did may not have paid off, but against Idra, who Zenio has played and studied, it did.
First game, he 10 pooled on a macro map, knowing that Idra would not be able to resist 15 hatching to maximize his economy (because if there's one thing Idra fears, it's being behind on economy). Yet, even with this prediction, it was a coin-flip because Zenio had to count on scouting Idra in a timely manner. He did, and Idra lost.
Second game, they both opened "safe," and then transitioned into their techs of choice. Zenio went for ling baneling aggression, but could not do damage because Idra went the defensive counter - roaches. Idra then attacked Zenio's natural with a roach-ling timing but failed to break him because Zenio had good simcity with his spines. At this point, they were fairly even. Then Zenio coin-flipped mutas. Had Idra put down a hydra den and made a few hydras, or scouted with a speed overlord or overseer and put down some spores, Zenio would've been dead. But Zenio predicted that Idra was afraid of falling behind on roach numbers after losing a bunch during the "all-in" attack, predicted that Idra had a habit of not scouting in ZvZ and relying on standard play, and so his muta switch paid off. Idra lost.
There are two conclusions to be drawn from these games, and it's not about ZvZ. It's about Idra's play style.
It is very easy to mind game Idra because he is predictable, and he is predictable in a very specific way - he is generally not willing to coin-flip. Except for the one game against Sen, where Idra played out of his style and took Sen completely by surprise with a ling spine-crawler cheese, Idra has just about always opened defensive, "safe" builds.
Idra doesn't like to take chances, and because he doesn't like to take chances, he is often vulnerable to builds that DO take chances. What Idra does not seem to understand, or understands but refuses to change his play-style accordingly, is that while you can't win consistently with a coin-flip build against random opponents, you CAN win consistently with a coin-flip build against specific opponents (ie Idra), because no one really plays "randomly."
Consider the first game. If Idra opened 14 pool, he would've been at an advantage. But does anyone really think that Idra is going to open 14 pool 50% of the times on Terminus, and 15 hatch the other 50% of the times? Or how about the second game - was Idra going to hydra switch 50% of the times, and build drones and roaches the other 50% of the times? No, because Idra, especially, does not like coin-flipping. He has a set of responses that he considers the "best" responses to each situation and uses them. These responses, when known by the opponent, or even when not known by the opponent, can easily be used to meta-game Idra into a loss.
Mind games are a part of SC 2, and in the hands of successful players, they make "coin flips" into "calculated risks" that result, more often than not, in wins. Unfortunately, Idra has always been weak at them. That's partly why he loses more than he should and to players with worse mechanics - because they out-mind game him. Idra does not really understand, I feel, how to mind game, or perhaps it is more insightful to say that Idra's mentality towards the game does not allow him to mind game effectively.
That Idra hates playing from a position of disadvantage makes it hard for him to pull off any successful coin-flips, because whereas a player like Zenio is fine with failing a 10 pool and then playing to get back in the game (a process that usually involves doing more coin-flips), Idra is not. This is what separates Idra from many other players - the fact that he is unwilling to coin flip because he does not or cannot play from a position of disadvantage. This is, in fact, a weakness in his game no matter what Idra tries to excuse it as, because it limits his versatility as a player, and makes him predictable.
I don't know if Idra will ever get over this limitation as a player, but until he does, he's probably going to keep losing in this fashion.
Zenio coin-flipped, but he coin-flipped with a biased coin - he won the mind games - he predicted what Idra would do, and Idra fell into these predictions.
Against anyone else, the specific coin-flips Zenio did may not have paid off, but against Idra, who Zenio has played and studied, it did.
First game, he 10 pooled on a macro map, knowing that Idra would not be able to resist 15 hatching to maximize his economy (because if there's one thing Idra fears, it's being behind on economy). Yet, even with this prediction, it was a coin-flip because Zenio had to count on scouting Idra in a timely manner. He did, and Idra lost.
Second game, they both opened "safe," and then transitioned into their techs of choice. Zenio went for ling baneling aggression, but could not do damage because Idra went the defensive counter - roaches. Idra then attacked Zenio's natural with a roach-ling timing but failed to break him because Zenio had good simcity with his spines. At this point, they were fairly even. Then Zenio coin-flipped mutas. Had Idra put down a hydra den and made a few hydras, or scouted with a speed overlord or overseer and put down some spores, Zenio would've been dead. But Zenio predicted that Idra was afraid of falling behind on roach numbers after losing a bunch during the "all-in" attack, predicted that Idra had a habit of not scouting in ZvZ and relying on standard play, and so his muta switch paid off. Idra lost.
There are two conclusions to be drawn from these games, and it's not about ZvZ. It's about Idra's play style.
It is very easy to mind game Idra because he is predictable, and he is predictable in a very specific way - he is generally not willing to coin-flip. Except for the one game against Sen, where Idra played out of his style and took Sen completely by surprise with a ling spine-crawler cheese, Idra has just about always opened defensive, "safe" builds.
Idra doesn't like to take chances, and because he doesn't like to take chances, he is often vulnerable to builds that DO take chances. What Idra does not seem to understand, or understands but refuses to change his play-style accordingly, is that while you can't win consistently with a coin-flip build against random opponents, you CAN win consistently with a coin-flip build against specific opponents (ie Idra), because no one really plays "randomly."
Consider the first game. If Idra opened 14 pool, he would've been at an advantage. But does anyone really think that Idra is going to open 14 pool 50% of the times on Terminus, and 15 hatch the other 50% of the times? Or how about the second game - was Idra going to hydra switch 50% of the times, and build drones and roaches the other 50% of the times? No, because Idra, especially, does not like coin-flipping. He has a set of responses that he considers the "best" responses to each situation and uses them. These responses, when known by the opponent, or even when not known by the opponent, can easily be used to meta-game Idra into a loss.
Mind games are a part of SC 2, and in the hands of successful players, they make "coin flips" into "calculated risks" that result, more often than not, in wins. Unfortunately, Idra has always been weak at them. That's partly why he loses more than he should and to players with worse mechanics - because they out-mind game him. Idra does not really understand, I feel, how to mind game, or perhaps it is more insightful to say that Idra's mentality towards the game does not allow him to mind game effectively.
That Idra hates playing from a position of disadvantage makes it hard for him to pull off any successful coin-flips, because whereas a player like Zenio is fine with failing a 10 pool and then playing to get back in the game (a process that usually involves doing more coin-flips), Idra is not. This is what separates Idra from many other players - the fact that he is unwilling to coin flip because he does not or cannot play from a position of disadvantage. This is, in fact, a weakness in his game no matter what Idra tries to excuse it as, because it limits his versatility as a player, and makes him predictable.
I don't know if Idra will ever get over this limitation as a player, but until he does, he's probably going to keep losing in this fashion.
I like this analysis. It makes me think of poker situations as well, if people on here know how to play. Idra would probably suck at the game.
If you approach poker as just optimal decision making based on the current state of your hand, you'll never win. There's something called implied odds, which takes into account the tendencies, stack size, and aggressiveness of your opponent. Making the "wrong move" pre-flop or post-flop could net you huge gains at the turn or the river. This is especially apparent in heads up play. I would probably know exactly what Idra has on the flop and most of the time pre-flop as well. It's like playing a poker bot, very easy to figure out once you've seen enough hands and analyzed its betting patterns.
. Hope to see more of them, they have a good chemistry together.
