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On August 16 2011 15:32 Trias wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2011 08:09 Mortality wrote:On August 16 2011 06:49 Trias wrote:On August 16 2011 06:29 Mortality wrote:
That Protoss is more often fielded than Terran should not be taken to mean that coaches have more faith in Protoss as a race, as you seem to believe. Nor does it even truly mean that Protoss has a deeper line-up than Terran since SPL cuts-off each team's line-up at a particular point (typically only 4 players are used per team -- if the fifth man is a Terran he won't be used and the fact that the 5th man is a Terran will not be counted towards your statistic). Furthermore, maps should always be taken into account when discussing balance -- and that brings up yet another key difference between SPL and SL: in SPL you can be sent out for a particular map whereas in SL you have no real choice.
Indeed, that protoss is more often fielded in pro league does not mean that the coaches have more faith in Protoss in a race (where did I say that). It does mean that the coaches have more faith in their protoss players though. Typically, a coach will send out the player that he/she deems to have the highest chance of winning. It does not mean coaches have more faith in their Protoss players. It may mean that a coach has a stronger Protoss line-up, or it may mean that a particular coach has more faith in a particular Protoss player than a particular Terran player as the 4th man. Or it may mean that the coach is choosing to utilize a particular Protoss as a sniper. That can all be conveniently be summarized as "the coach has more confidence in his protoss players winning the match". As for your 4th man argument. No comptent coach would systematically arrange his line up such that one of his players that he has the most confidence in regularly does not get to play. (Except maybe if he is trying to spare them, due to a heavy schedule.)
You are not understanding the argument. Let's simplify the situation with a hypothetical: 3 people from your team have to play. You best is T, then P, then P, then T, then T, then T, then T, then T. Who do you send? 1 T, 2 P, of course (barring any issue with maps or concerns over snipers). But that does not mean that the line-up of P's is as good or better even though statistically we are seeing 2/3 of the games played by P.
With regards to the actual data, there are not so many more games being played by P than by T that it means anything other than "racial balance isn't *that* big of a problem (at least in SPL format)." It does not mean coaches have more confidence in Protoss players.
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It depends on the circumstances of the team and it depends on the map selection (a point you conveniently ignored).
Since the maps rotate, the map order does not factor in the overall statistics. There obviously may be an effect due to the map pool, but that is ore an issue of why a certain race is dominant at a current period.
You're missing the point completely. If more of the maps are more P favoring than T favoring and you have two players of comparable skill competing for the last spot, one P and one T, you're more likely to play the P player.
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And here you are talking to me about sample size... the difference is not so substantial as to make the point you seem to want it to make. I question its importance in the conversation at hand.
Yes there is only a nearly two order of magnitude difference in the sample size. That is clearly not substantial.
No. Because when considering the number of games played by each race, WHAT is producing the data? The PLAYERS themselves. Which is NOT a 3 digit sample.
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Moreover, something that SL results show that you are completely missing is that Protoss players are overly dependent on a small handful of timings for a small handful of strategies, making them easier to prepare for. There are reasons why Protoss is consistently lagging behind from Ro32 up to champions and they aren't just dumb luck or lack of superstar level players. Although people keep talking about just Flash and Jaedong, there has been only 1 TBLS champion and 2 finalists, the second of whom is Protoss. Stork's SL runs this year have been comparable to JD's in depth -- despite the fact that Zerg is absolutely, positively blowing Protoss out of the water at ALL levels of SL competition.
Yes, and that contradicts the conclusions I drew from the pro league data how? Both show that zerg has been dominant over protoss.
Really? Over a one year period we've seen Zerg play 29 SPL games more than Protoss. That difference can be accounted for by just a single player.
I don't understand what kind of argument you are trying to make at all. That in SPL the classical balance will be observed over a long enough time period? Of course. That does not address the current situation, nor does it ever seem to reflect the tournament situation. That the difference in number of games played in SPL is an adequate reflection of how coaches view the current racial balance? I'm not a coach but I doubt they would be agreeing with that assessment.
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On August 12 2011 01:16 Fionn wrote:
Killer is so close to usurping Jaedong in the Power Rank.
If he can win in the Ro8 of the OSL, he might do it...
lol, shitstorm incoming.
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On August 17 2011 14:29 djbhINDI wrote:Show nested quote +On August 12 2011 01:16 Fionn wrote:
Killer is so close to usurping Jaedong in the Power Rank.
If he can win in the Ro8 of the OSL, he might do it... lol, shitstorm incoming.
Why? It's not that controversial of a statement. Killer has been playing very well lately and is only 1 spot behind Jaedong right now in the PR. JD has been passed up on the PR by other zergs before.
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Canada2480 Posts
On August 17 2011 14:54 red4ce wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2011 14:29 djbhINDI wrote:On August 12 2011 01:16 Fionn wrote:
Killer is so close to usurping Jaedong in the Power Rank.
If he can win in the Ro8 of the OSL, he might do it... lol, shitstorm incoming. Why? It's not that controversial of a statement. Killer has been playing very well lately and is only 1 spot behind Jaedong right now in the PR. JD has been passed up on the PR by other zergs before.
I'm guessing he meant JD fanboys shitstorm once killer passes him
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Im a JD fanboy and I would find it hilarious if killer passes him haha.
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On August 17 2011 17:21 ReketSomething wrote:
Im a JD fanboy and I would find it hilarious if killer passes him haha.
Imo he shoulda allready had passed him this month
No reason for JD to be higher...
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On August 17 2011 15:14 swanized wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2011 14:54 red4ce wrote:On August 17 2011 14:29 djbhINDI wrote:On August 12 2011 01:16 Fionn wrote:
Killer is so close to usurping Jaedong in the Power Rank.
If he can win in the Ro8 of the OSL, he might do it... lol, shitstorm incoming. Why? It's not that controversial of a statement. Killer has been playing very well lately and is only 1 spot behind Jaedong right now in the PR. JD has been passed up on the PR by other zergs before. I'm guessing he meant JD fanboys shitstorm once killer passes him
I thought most JD fans liked Killer since they're teammates on Oz.
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Netherlands45349 Posts
If anyone does it, it should be Killer
while he is at it he should also beat Flash in the ro4 and then Fantasy in the finals
profit.
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Killer killing! Glad to see him get some respect after the boxer nukes
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What a poor PR, I agree with all of it
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I always assumed the "more games by Zergs" just meant "there are more good Zergs at the moment".
Off the top of my head, if we're talking about A-class/ace players or better, you have:
Protoss: Bisu, Stork, Jangbi, Movie, Horang2... and results say Jaehoon but his play is still really shaky. No idea what to make of Stats or Kal right now. free's just been bad.
Terran: Flash, Bogus, Sea, Light, fantasy I guess, and Leta sort of.
Zerg: ZerO, Hydra, Soulkey, Jaedong, Killer, ... Calm I guess, soO atm but not really.
Now this isn't an exhaustive or scientific list, but I feel like the games played match up fairly well with the numbers of pretty good players of each race right now.
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Stats > Stork, Jangbi and Jaehoon these days and definitely deserves a spot on said list.
Kal and free are both in deep slumps they may not recover from.
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Zerg gets a lot better in the mediocre and in the retrospective. Remember, we're looking into the past for how zerg has dominated the game, and they also had Luxury, Yarnc, Great, Kwanro (Hey, MSL Finalists!) -- 3 of those players are no longer with us and great is slumping (similar to how you picked kal and free), but they've knocked out their fair few players in leagues.
For the mediocre, toss in Roro and Shine who are pretty good and beat almost anyone in their own right, and then the "random" zergs who show up out of nowhere, like Shine, to make a ro4 like By.Hero back when and Modesty just this past season. The most random tosses and terrans we've had make "splashes" in individual leagues are Snow for that one series with JD (that seems to have broken him). Maybe Stats and Grape who, like Snow, had the misfortune of running into JD.
Terran doesn't have ANYONE like that. Everyone you see making it even slightly deep into leagues are established names from 2009 and earlier. Bogus is the closest thing and he can't cut it in individual leagues.
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The fact is, excluding Flash, Zerg have absolutely dominated Individual Leagues from 2009-2011, and this is not up for debate. Even excluding Jaedong gives you the same results. What is debatable to you is how much individual leagues mean to you on the current state of the pro scene.
For me, it means a lot. Same with the SPL playoffs where ZvP artists like ZerO and Soulkey resort to Hydra breaks to win. The shit just got serious, so they play to win, and Hydra busts simply show how much better Z is than P. That is very, very telling. I'm not sure how you could watch the playoffs and not notice Z>P dominance.
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On August 19 2011 01:03 Crisium wrote:
The fact is, excluding Flash, Zerg have absolutely dominated Individual Leagues from 2009-2011, and this is not up for debate. Even excluding Jaedong gives you the same results. What is debatable to you is how much individual leagues mean to you on the current state of the pro scene.
For me, it means a lot. Same with the SPL playoffs where ZvP artists like ZerO and Soulkey resort to Hydra breaks to win. The shit just got serious, so they play to win, and Hydra busts simply show how much better Z is than P. That is very, very telling. I'm not sure how you could watch the playoffs and not notice Z>P dominance.
Mostly agree with the sentiment, but... "where ZvP artists like ZerO and Soulkey resort to Hydra breaks to win."
Pretty strange that you would spearhead your argument with #2 and #4 ZvT Elo players right now, especially when you make it as though they can't win any other way and has to resort to hydra busting.
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On August 16 2011 06:49 Trias wrote:
You might have noticed that I in fact introduced two different datums to the discussion, which thus far
The plural of datum is data.
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On August 19 2011 02:57 bearbuddy wrote:Show nested quote +On August 19 2011 01:03 Crisium wrote:
The fact is, excluding Flash, Zerg have absolutely dominated Individual Leagues from 2009-2011, and this is not up for debate. Even excluding Jaedong gives you the same results. What is debatable to you is how much individual leagues mean to you on the current state of the pro scene.
For me, it means a lot. Same with the SPL playoffs where ZvP artists like ZerO and Soulkey resort to Hydra breaks to win. The shit just got serious, so they play to win, and Hydra busts simply show how much better Z is than P. That is very, very telling. I'm not sure how you could watch the playoffs and not notice Z>P dominance. Mostly agree with the sentiment, but... "where ZvP artists like ZerO and Soulkey resort to Hydra breaks to win." Pretty strange that you would spearhead your argument with #2 and #4 ZvT Elo players right now, especially when you make it as though they can't win any other way and has to resort to hydra busting.
I didn't mean to make it seem like "they can't win without hydra busts". What I'm saying is that these ZerO and SK can win a ZvP in a multitude of ways. But the hydra bust is the tried and true format that you use in the playoffs cause this shit is serious. And frankly their ZvP prowess is not relevant in this discussion. They are artists (more so ZerO) in ZvP in that they can win at any point in the game and try multiple strategies. But when they need a no-nonsense win, they Hydra break because it is so absurdly good.
Think about the three non-mirror matches. What other race has this kind of timing attacking that can come at several different times in the early-mid game and has such a high win rate? And even if it doesn't work, can be transitioned out of as long as you did good damage. That is the power of Z>P. Zerg's fear of M&M timing attacks cannot even compare to the early-mid game vulnerability of Protoss to Hydralisks. I stand behind the statement that ZvP is the most imbalanced matchup, and the OSL and SPL Playoffs have agreed with me, imo.
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On August 19 2011 10:45 Crisium wrote:Show nested quote +On August 19 2011 02:57 bearbuddy wrote:On August 19 2011 01:03 Crisium wrote:
The fact is, excluding Flash, Zerg have absolutely dominated Individual Leagues from 2009-2011, and this is not up for debate. Even excluding Jaedong gives you the same results. What is debatable to you is how much individual leagues mean to you on the current state of the pro scene.
For me, it means a lot. Same with the SPL playoffs where ZvP artists like ZerO and Soulkey resort to Hydra breaks to win. The shit just got serious, so they play to win, and Hydra busts simply show how much better Z is than P. That is very, very telling. I'm not sure how you could watch the playoffs and not notice Z>P dominance. Mostly agree with the sentiment, but... "where ZvP artists like ZerO and Soulkey resort to Hydra breaks to win." Pretty strange that you would spearhead your argument with #2 and #4 ZvT Elo players right now, especially when you make it as though they can't win any other way and has to resort to hydra busting. I didn't mean to make it seem like "they can't win without hydra busts". What I'm saying is that these ZerO and SK can win a ZvP in a multitude of ways. But the hydra bust is the tried and true format that you use in the playoffs cause this shit is serious. And frankly their ZvP prowess is not relevant in this discussion. They are artists (more so ZerO) in ZvP in that they can win at any point in the game and try multiple strategies. But when they need a no-nonsense win, they Hydra break because it is so absurdly good. Think about the three non-mirror matches. What other race has this kind of timing attacking that can come at several different times in the early-mid game and has such a high win rate? And even if it doesn't work, can be transitioned out of as long as you did good damage. That is the power of Z>P. Zerg's fear of M&M timing attacks cannot even compare to the early-mid game vulnerability of Protoss to Hydralisks. I stand behind the statement that ZvP is the most imbalanced matchup, and the OSL and SPL Playoffs have agreed with me, imo.
TvZ is almost the same winning percent as ZvP (historically), and it has an array of opening that can be used. bbs, 2rax early upgrade, 4 rax, valkonic, +1 armor gol, etc. At the beginning of the proleague season, Protoss was actually dominating zerg with +1 zeal and sair. It is unfortunate for toss that the balance swung the other way at the most critical time. PvZ is definitely at its lowest point right now, but it'll swing back up again.
Zero executed a lurker drop against Jangbi. Likewise, Soulkey turtled pretty hard against Brave and went to hive. So it's not like they did hydra-bust every time to go for the "sure win". You're also forgetting Woon. A much lesser caliber player trying some kind of cheese that didn't work for him.
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TBH, in my amateur opinion, the hydra bust would be much less effective if Protoss weren't going 1-cannon so often recently when FFE-ing. I'm not sure who pioneered it earlier this season, but if we think about it:
1-cannon: barely a deterrent. If Protoss misses or misreads the hydra pressure, more cannons don't go down till 1 1/2 + control groups of hydras show up = losses.
2-cannon: doubles the firepower, means that even without added cannons hydras get cut down a lot faster. IMO this is/was often enough to deter hydra breaks until HTs/reavers get out.
As far as I can, there isn't even a significant map-making change that would be driving this - it's just a greedy phase Protoss is going through. It's understandable, since the hydra > cannon/zeal advantage means a competent Zerg can take map control and/or a tech lead behind a ling-hydra threat - one cannon less is that many more resources to spend elsewhere. So I'm not sure whether reversion is actually correct, or a further strategic development is necessary. (Thought: what is the incidence of hydra breaks on 2-player vs 4-player maps? Close positions vs cross positions? Scouted vs unscouted positions?)
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I actually think that the problem lies with scouting(hence Bisu's incredible PvZ winning rate). Toss pretty much always open Stargate, despite the fact that zergs go hydra first most of the time. The threat of mutalisk instantly winning the game without proper defense is just too high. But with proper opening, the toss can respond appropriately.
On the other hand, Terran has scan and Zerg has the overlord parked over the cliff near the nat. Toss is caught playing the guessing game until the sair come out, and it's too late to do anything against the 3 hatch timing.
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EPT
