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On August 15 2011 19:56 Elroi wrote:
I'm not sure that it is valid to argue like this but I think that ff you take out Flash, other terrans that he has eliminated would probably have won and beat the zergs in the finals since terran historically beats zergs on the highest level: when protoss is not even in the competition in the sls anymore the best terran should have a very good shot at winning. Well, you would probably have to count Jaedong out too since he would have been the favorite against any non flash terran anyway.
The only starleague worthy terran Flash has really knocked out in any of his runs was Fantasy in Bigfile, and frankly I wouldn't have taken Fantasy over Jaedong in that situation (As Jaedong had just eliminated Light and ALMOST beat Flash).
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the only terran beside flash able to win a starleague is fantasy and he isnt that consistent.
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On August 15 2011 19:14 Trias wrote:
If you want to have some more unbiased numbers about race dominance in broodwar, look at the statistics for the current season of SPL.
If you look at the overall win rates, you find:
TvZ: 106-93 (53.3%)
ZvP: 130-114 (53.3%)
PvT: 126-98 (56.3%)
Which enforces the classic T>Z>P>T paradigm of broodwar.
If you look at total games played, you find:
Zerg : 549
Protoss : 520
Terran: 486
In terms of total games played the zergs do dominate. This basically indicates that the coaches think that their zerg players (on average) have the best chance of winning.
The problem with taking SPL results as definitive proof of racial balance is that SPL results and individual leagues do not always coincide. Certain players like Movie, Bisu and Horang2 really help Protoss stats in SPL but do nothing for Protoss in individual league. In fact, Bisu alters the SPL statistics more than anybody but it's been 2 years since he's made a deep Starleague run.
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Zerg has been pretty dominant lately, but it's more infusing new blood rather than resurgence of veterans. Effort retired. JD isn't doing as dominating as he's used to. Luxury got boned. Then we have hydra breaking out, soulkey going from b-team to one of the main players, killer reaching new heights, etc. etc.
Terran on the other hand, counts on the resurgence of players. Of the decent to top terran players-- Light, Sea, Flash, Bogus, Fantasy, Baby, Leta, Mind, FBH-- pretty much only Bogus and Baby would be considered new blood. Neither of which has had a deep individual league run.
Protoss is just flailing around in individual leagues.
There might be a case that zerg's talent pool is deeper and that the players are closer to each other than the other races. But it might have just been the nature of the zerg mechanics (you can be pretty good against 2 races up to lair tech) Either way, some young'uns from Toss and Terran need to start stepping up.
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On August 16 2011 01:36 Mortality wrote:Show nested quote +On August 15 2011 19:14 Trias wrote:
If you want to have some more unbiased numbers about race dominance in broodwar, look at the statistics for the current season of SPL.
If you look at the overall win rates, you find:
TvZ: 106-93 (53.3%)
ZvP: 130-114 (53.3%)
PvT: 126-98 (56.3%)
Which enforces the classic T>Z>P>T paradigm of broodwar.
If you look at total games played, you find:
Zerg : 549
Protoss : 520
Terran: 486
In terms of total games played the zergs do dominate. This basically indicates that the coaches think that their zerg players (on average) have the best chance of winning.
The problem with taking SPL results as definitive proof of racial balance is that SPL results and individual leagues do not always coincide. Certain players like Movie, Bisu and Horang2 really help Protoss stats in SPL but do nothing for Protoss in individual league. In fact, Bisu alters the SPL statistics more than anybody but it's been 2 years since he's made a deep Starleague run.
The problem with looking at star leagues stats is that they are heavily influenced by just a few very dominant players. The absense of protoss players in the star leagues mostly tells us that there are no very dominant protoss players around currently.
The SPL fielding numbers, do show a similar picture. There are significantly more zerg players fielded than protoss players. Interestingly enough, there are more protoss players fielded in proleague than terran players.
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On August 16 2011 03:31 Trias wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2011 01:36 Mortality wrote:On August 15 2011 19:14 Trias wrote:
If you want to have some more unbiased numbers about race dominance in broodwar, look at the statistics for the current season of SPL.
If you look at the overall win rates, you find:
TvZ: 106-93 (53.3%)
ZvP: 130-114 (53.3%)
PvT: 126-98 (56.3%)
Which enforces the classic T>Z>P>T paradigm of broodwar.
If you look at total games played, you find:
Zerg : 549
Protoss : 520
Terran: 486
In terms of total games played the zergs do dominate. This basically indicates that the coaches think that their zerg players (on average) have the best chance of winning.
The problem with taking SPL results as definitive proof of racial balance is that SPL results and individual leagues do not always coincide. Certain players like Movie, Bisu and Horang2 really help Protoss stats in SPL but do nothing for Protoss in individual league. In fact, Bisu alters the SPL statistics more than anybody but it's been 2 years since he's made a deep Starleague run. The problem with looking at star leagues stats is that they are heavily influenced by just a few very dominant players. The absense of protoss players in the star leagues mostly tells us that there are no very dominant protoss players around currently. The SPL fielding numbers, do show a similar picture. There are significantly more zerg players fielded than protoss players. Interestingly enough, there are more protoss players fielded in proleague than terran players.
Dont have much time so i wont write much. But i personally feel that Proleague stats and Starleague stats tell of different pictures.
Proleague: a low-preparation environment. Players have 2-3 days to practice on a given map against a mostly unknown opponent (they can guess, but often they have to practice for all 3 MUs in SPL)
Starleague: a high-preparation environment. Opponent is determined, and the preparation period is long.
I think maybe Zerg is just the race that favors preparation the most? And Protoss (clearly?) least. Though its difficult to say that T doesnt favor preparation as well as Zerg. Looking at Flash's pure mechanics, while good, it does not warrant his level of dominance, imo. What sets Flash apar from all others seems to be his game-sense and preparation.
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On August 16 2011 03:31 Trias wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2011 01:36 Mortality wrote:On August 15 2011 19:14 Trias wrote:
If you want to have some more unbiased numbers about race dominance in broodwar, look at the statistics for the current season of SPL.
If you look at the overall win rates, you find:
TvZ: 106-93 (53.3%)
ZvP: 130-114 (53.3%)
PvT: 126-98 (56.3%)
Which enforces the classic T>Z>P>T paradigm of broodwar.
If you look at total games played, you find:
Zerg : 549
Protoss : 520
Terran: 486
In terms of total games played the zergs do dominate. This basically indicates that the coaches think that their zerg players (on average) have the best chance of winning.
The problem with taking SPL results as definitive proof of racial balance is that SPL results and individual leagues do not always coincide. Certain players like Movie, Bisu and Horang2 really help Protoss stats in SPL but do nothing for Protoss in individual league. In fact, Bisu alters the SPL statistics more than anybody but it's been 2 years since he's made a deep Starleague run. The problem with looking at star leagues stats is that they are heavily influenced by just a few very dominant players. The absense of protoss players in the star leagues mostly tells us that there are no very dominant protoss players around currently. The SPL fielding numbers, do show a similar picture. There are significantly more zerg players fielded than protoss players. Interestingly enough, there are more protoss players fielded in proleague than terran players.
But there is at least one dominant Protoss player (Bisu) and no Terran other than Flash has been consistently dominant anyway. If we start talking about Fantasy, for instance, we should also talk about Stork who similarly had a strong season followed by a slump period.
That Protoss is more often fielded than Terran should not be taken to mean that coaches have more faith in Protoss as a race, as you seem to believe. Nor does it even truly mean that Protoss has a deeper line-up than Terran since SPL cuts-off each team's line-up at a particular point (typically only 4 players are used per team -- if the fifth man is a Terran he won't be used and the fact that the 5th man is a Terran will not be counted towards your statistic). Furthermore, maps should always be taken into account when discussing balance -- and that brings up yet another key difference between SPL and SL: in SPL you can be sent out for a particular map whereas in SL you have no real choice.
To be honest, I think you're goal to try to quantify the current racial balance is misguided -- you're seeking for one definitive statistic that will say everything that needs to be said when no such statistic exists, so instead you are attempting to infer more from a particular piece of data than really is there. For all of its flaws, ELO is a much better starting point for grasping the big picture than SPL data is. Races go through ups and downs influenced by metagame, current maps, etc., that can be either exaggerated or appear negligible depending on the time period you use for collecting statistics. For example, your statistics indicate that the ZvP balance is better than the PvT balance, but in the month of July we've seen Z go 21-9 against P. Earlier in the year the metagame situation was very good for Protoss with a revitalized timing and favorable maps, but now that Zerg has had a chance to adapt the situation has changed. Meanwhile, TvP balance which was looking absolutely horrendous in late May/early June has looked a lot better since then.
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On August 16 2011 06:29 Mortality wrote:
That Protoss is more often fielded than Terran should not be taken to mean that coaches have more faith in Protoss as a race, as you seem to believe. Nor does it even truly mean that Protoss has a deeper line-up than Terran since SPL cuts-off each team's line-up at a particular point (typically only 4 players are used per team -- if the fifth man is a Terran he won't be used and the fact that the 5th man is a Terran will not be counted towards your statistic). Furthermore, maps should always be taken into account when discussing balance -- and that brings up yet another key difference between SPL and SL: in SPL you can be sent out for a particular map whereas in SL you have no real choice.
Indeed, that protoss is more often fielded in pro league does not mean that the coaches have more faith in Protoss in a race (where did I say that). It does mean that the coaches have more faith in their protoss players though. Typically, a coach will send out the player that he/she deems to have the highest chance of winning.
To be honest, I think you're goal to try to quantify the current racial balance is misguided -- you're seeking for one definitive statistic that will say everything that needs to be said when no such statistic exists, so instead you are attempting to infer more from a particular piece of data than really is there.
Where did you get the idea that that was my intention. You are projecting.
You might have noticed that I in fact introduced two different datums to the discussion, which thus far was mostly focussing the racial dominance debate on star leagues. (Of which the data is problematic, because the best players get to play the most. As a result two or three players can mostly dominate the result. ...enter the whole star leagues without Flash and Jaedong debate above.)
For all of its flaws, ELO is a much better starting point for grasping the big picture than SPL data is. Races go through ups and downs influenced by metagame, current maps, etc., that can be either exaggerated or appear negligible depending on the time period you use for collecting statistics. For example, your statistics indicate that the ZvP balance is better than the PvT balance, but in the month of July we've seen Z go 21-9 against P. Earlier in the year the metagame situation was very good for Protoss with a revitalized timing and favorable maps, but now that Zerg has had a chance to adapt the situation has changed. Meanwhile, TvP balance which was looking absolutely horrendous in late May/early June has looked a lot better since then.
Besides metagame, that is mostly the law of low numbers showing.
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On August 15 2011 23:07 TwoToneTerran wrote:Show nested quote +On August 15 2011 19:56 Elroi wrote:
I'm not sure that it is valid to argue like this but I think that ff you take out Flash, other terrans that he has eliminated would probably have won and beat the zergs in the finals since terran historically beats zergs on the highest level: when protoss is not even in the competition in the sls anymore the best terran should have a very good shot at winning. Well, you would probably have to count Jaedong out too since he would have been the favorite against any non flash terran anyway. The only starleague worthy terran Flash has really knocked out in any of his runs was Fantasy in Bigfile, and frankly I wouldn't have taken Fantasy over Jaedong in that situation (As Jaedong had just eliminated Light and ALMOST beat Flash).
He did say you would have to count out Jaedong....someone didn't read it completely...
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On August 16 2011 07:08 GhostOwl wrote:Show nested quote +On August 15 2011 23:07 TwoToneTerran wrote:On August 15 2011 19:56 Elroi wrote:
I'm not sure that it is valid to argue like this but I think that ff you take out Flash, other terrans that he has eliminated would probably have won and beat the zergs in the finals since terran historically beats zergs on the highest level: when protoss is not even in the competition in the sls anymore the best terran should have a very good shot at winning. Well, you would probably have to count Jaedong out too since he would have been the favorite against any non flash terran anyway. The only starleague worthy terran Flash has really knocked out in any of his runs was Fantasy in Bigfile, and frankly I wouldn't have taken Fantasy over Jaedong in that situation (As Jaedong had just eliminated Light and ALMOST beat Flash). He did say you would have to count out Jaedong....someone didn't read it completely...
I was specifically pointing out the one time where Flash knocked out a terran who could win, not the overall jargon of his post. I adressed that zerg would dominate if you took both out in this post, so I didn't feel the need to again.
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On August 16 2011 06:49 Trias wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2011 06:29 Mortality wrote:
That Protoss is more often fielded than Terran should not be taken to mean that coaches have more faith in Protoss as a race, as you seem to believe. Nor does it even truly mean that Protoss has a deeper line-up than Terran since SPL cuts-off each team's line-up at a particular point (typically only 4 players are used per team -- if the fifth man is a Terran he won't be used and the fact that the 5th man is a Terran will not be counted towards your statistic). Furthermore, maps should always be taken into account when discussing balance -- and that brings up yet another key difference between SPL and SL: in SPL you can be sent out for a particular map whereas in SL you have no real choice.
Indeed, that protoss is more often fielded in pro league does not mean that the coaches have more faith in Protoss in a race (where did I say that). It does mean that the coaches have more faith in their protoss players though. Typically, a coach will send out the player that he/she deems to have the highest chance of winning.
It does not mean coaches have more faith in their Protoss players. It may mean that a coach has a stronger Protoss line-up, or it may mean that a particular coach has more faith in a particular Protoss player than a particular Terran player as the 4th man. Or it may mean that the coach is choosing to utilize a particular Protoss as a sniper. It depends on the circumstances of the team and it depends on the map selection (a point you conveniently ignored).
And here you are talking to me about sample size... the difference is not so substantial as to make the point you seem to want it to make. I question its importance in the conversation at hand.
Show nested quote + For all of its flaws, ELO is a much better starting point for grasping the big picture than SPL data is. Races go through ups and downs influenced by metagame, current maps, etc., that can be either exaggerated or appear negligible depending on the time period you use for collecting statistics. For example, your statistics indicate that the ZvP balance is better than the PvT balance, but in the month of July we've seen Z go 21-9 against P. Earlier in the year the metagame situation was very good for Protoss with a revitalized timing and favorable maps, but now that Zerg has had a chance to adapt the situation has changed. Meanwhile, TvP balance which was looking absolutely horrendous in late May/early June has looked a lot better since then. Besides metagame, that is mostly the law of low numbers showing.
It is not merely the law of low numbers. Watch the games. The revised Protoss timings that were bringing great success earlier in the year are starting to get figured out.
Moreover, something that SL results show that you are completely missing is that Protoss players are overly dependent on a small handful of timings for a small handful of strategies, making them easier to prepare for. There are reasons why Protoss is consistently lagging behind from Ro32 up to champions and they aren't just dumb luck or lack of superstar level players. Although people keep talking about just Flash and Jaedong, there has been only 1 TBLS champion and 2 finalists, the second of whom is Protoss. Stork's SL runs this year have been comparable to JD's in depth -- despite the fact that Zerg is absolutely, positively blowing Protoss out of the water at ALL levels of SL competition.
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Why do you say 4th man? You have to field atleast 6 in regular PL games, though it's possible (if unlikely) to only have to field 4.
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No...For the entirety of proleague for the past year you've had to field up to 6 players. Regular format is Bo7.
edit- Exclusion to Winner's league where you can only field 4.
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On August 16 2011 12:41 TwoToneTerran wrote:
No...For the entirety of proleague for the past year you've had to field up to 6 players. Regular format is Bo7.
edit- Exclusion to Winner's league where you can only field 4.
You're right, it was my mistake.
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Your point still stands, you just change 4th to 6th man, I was just clarifying.
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NOooooooooooooooo Jaedong :/
I would much prefer no Zergs in PR but Jaedong in the #1 spot.
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On August 16 2011 08:09 Mortality wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2011 06:49 Trias wrote:On August 16 2011 06:29 Mortality wrote:
That Protoss is more often fielded than Terran should not be taken to mean that coaches have more faith in Protoss as a race, as you seem to believe. Nor does it even truly mean that Protoss has a deeper line-up than Terran since SPL cuts-off each team's line-up at a particular point (typically only 4 players are used per team -- if the fifth man is a Terran he won't be used and the fact that the 5th man is a Terran will not be counted towards your statistic). Furthermore, maps should always be taken into account when discussing balance -- and that brings up yet another key difference between SPL and SL: in SPL you can be sent out for a particular map whereas in SL you have no real choice.
Indeed, that protoss is more often fielded in pro league does not mean that the coaches have more faith in Protoss in a race (where did I say that). It does mean that the coaches have more faith in their protoss players though. Typically, a coach will send out the player that he/she deems to have the highest chance of winning. It does not mean coaches have more faith in their Protoss players. It may mean that a coach has a stronger Protoss line-up, or it may mean that a particular coach has more faith in a particular Protoss player than a particular Terran player as the 4th man. Or it may mean that the coach is choosing to utilize a particular Protoss as a sniper.
That can all be conveniently be summarized as "the coach has more confidence in his protoss players winning the match".
As for your 4th man argument. No comptent coach would systematically arrange his line up such that one of his players that he has the most confidence in regularly does not get to play. (Except maybe if he is trying to spare them, due to a heavy schedule.)
It depends on the circumstances of the team and it depends on the map selection (a point you conveniently ignored).
Since the maps rotate, the map order does not factor in the overall statistics. There obviously may be an effect due to the map pool, but that is ore an issue of why a certain race is dominant at a current period.
And here you are talking to me about sample size... the difference is not so substantial as to make the point you seem to want it to make. I question its importance in the conversation at hand.
Yes there is only a nearly two order of magnitude difference in the sample size. That is clearly not substantial.
Moreover, something that SL results show that you are completely missing is that Protoss players are overly dependent on a small handful of timings for a small handful of strategies, making them easier to prepare for. There are reasons why Protoss is consistently lagging behind from Ro32 up to champions and they aren't just dumb luck or lack of superstar level players. Although people keep talking about just Flash and Jaedong, there has been only 1 TBLS champion and 2 finalists, the second of whom is Protoss. Stork's SL runs this year have been comparable to JD's in depth -- despite the fact that Zerg is absolutely, positively blowing Protoss out of the water at ALL levels of SL competition.
Yes, and that contradicts the conclusions I drew from the pro league data how? Both show that zerg has been dominant over protoss.
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i am really sad bout jds decline =(
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EPT
