EPTthe guy will break 450 at this rate cant see him go more than that since winning a game would give him no points and losing to 2nd place in elo will drop him like 40 points
Power Rank 03/01/2010 - Page 10
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pvzvt
Israel2097 Posts
the guy will break 450 at this rate cant see him go more than that since winning a game would give him no points and losing to 2nd place in elo will drop him like 40 points | ||
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L0thar
987 Posts
On March 11 2010 06:33 Mortality wrote: That was before top players all started playing over 100 sanctioned games per year, with the tip-top players playing more like 150 games per year. There's a higher number of data points, more progamers playing more games, especially top players, who have a better chance than ever before of attaining a long win streak (Starcraft progaming is extremely dependent on the metagame -- a metagame shift can earn you a good win record over a short time period if it plays to your advantage). Situations like WL tend to be particularly advantageous. If this is the reason, where are other players attacking 2400 Elo? Hell, even 2300. I would agree with you if we see a lot of top players hanging around 2350, but there are none. 2309 is still extremely impresive, it's still about 60 points more than the next player (Calm) has. 60 points! Compare it with average difference, which is usually just a couple of points (10, 8, 9, 2 to list just a few). Also we all know that the higher Elo you have, the harder is to improve it. That make that difference even more impresive. The reason why 2309 doesn't look so impressive anymore is just that Flash is fucking beast. Only him. (Also WL isn't exactly new format, it has been played before.) | ||
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Mortality
United States4790 Posts
On March 11 2010 06:54 adelarge wrote: If this is the reason, where are other players attacking 2400 Elo? Hell, even 2300. I would agree with you if we see a lot of top players hanging around 2350, but there are none. 2309 is still extremely impresive, it's still about 60 points more than the next player (Calm) has. 60 points! Compare it with average difference, which is usually just a couple of points (10, 8, 9, 2 to list just a few). Also we all know that the higher Elo you have, the harder is to improve it. That make that difference even more impresive. The reason why 2309 doesn't look so impressive anymore is just that Flash is fucking beast. Only him. (Also WL isn't exactly new format, it has been played before.) I don't mean for this to sound offensive, but you do know how ELO works right? Or at least the general theory, anyway, right? If one player's score gets really, really high, other scores are going to look depressed. In the past, the high scorer would be around 2300, if that. There wouldn't be a cluster of players at 2300, it would be one guy there and you'd be lucky to find anyone else over 2250. Right now we have 2 guys over 2300, 1 of which is over 2400. Basically, ignore Flash. So pretend JD with 2309 is #1, Calm with 2247 is #2, etc. That's what ELO ratings used to look like. In fact, there are more guys over 2200 right now then you would have seen back in Boxer's time. Go back and actually look at the stats. It is a fact that top players today have more opportunities to prove themselves (and doing so with less chance of running into other top players). This means that ELO among top players looks more inflated than ever. 2300 is not that impressive anymore. You can make 2300 without even making it into a league final (cough, Effort, cough), and it's not uncommon these days to see 6 or 7 people with ELO over 2250 at the same time. There was a time when you had yet to see 6 players ELO peak over 2250 -- and it wouldn't have been until somewhere around mid/late 2002 that this was the case! And no shit WL was played before, but go back and take a look at old stats. How many sanctioned games in WL format do you see when you look at the records of iloveoov, NaDa, Savior, etc.? | ||
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L0thar
987 Posts
On March 11 2010 08:09 Mortality wrote: I don't mean for this to sound offensive, but you do know how ELO works right? Or at least the general theory, anyway, right? If one player's score gets really, really high, other scores are going to look depressed. 1)In the past, the high scorer would be around 2300, if that. There wouldn't be a cluster of players at 2300, it would be one guy there and you'd be lucky to find anyone else over 2250. Right now we have 2 guys over 2300, 1 of which is over 2400. 2) Basically, ignore Flash. So pretend JD with 2309 is #1, Calm with 2247 is #2, etc. That's what ELO ratings used to look like. In fact, there are more guys over 2200 right now then you would have seen back in Boxer's time. 3) Go back and actually look at the stats. It is a fact that top players today have more opportunities to prove themselves (and doing so with less chance of running into other top players). This means that ELO among top players looks more inflated than ever. 4) 2300 is not that impressive anymore. You can make 2300 without even making it into a league final (cough, Effort, cough), and it's not uncommon these days to see 6 or 7 people with ELO over 2250 at the same time. There was a time when you had yet to see 6 players ELO peak over 2250 -- and it wouldn't have been until somewhere around mid/late 2002 that this was the case! 5) And no shit WL was played before, but go back and take a look at old stats. How many sanctioned games in WL format do you see when you look at the records of iloveoov, NaDa, Savior, etc.? I took the liberty to enumerate some of your points, so I don't have to quote it separately. 1) Are you aware that in last couple of months there were a LOTS of games added to TLPD and Elo was recalculated? Oov's peak is 2355, just 11 points lower than old Bisu's record. The highest vsT Elo was held by Yellow since *2003*, until Flash broke it like 4 months ago. I look at the data I have and I don't see any exteme disparity between old stars and new ones, until I add Flash lately beastly play (and JD to some extent with vsZ and vsP peaks). 2) The fact that you can say "Basically ignore Flash...that's what Elo ratings used to look like" actually prove my point that JD's Elo is still impresive, it only looks like low number because there is Flash running around and killing everybody. Try to say "Basically ignore Flash & JD and pretend Calm is #1 with 2247, Stork 2237 etc." Doesn't work anymore, because there is hardly any important difference between their Elo. JD is still extremely ahead of every player Flash excluded. 3) I'd love to. Is there any way how to look at Elo stats in the past? 4) While I agree Elo system gets inflated, I think people generaly overestimate it. And I disagree 2300+ isn't impressive. 5) Why did you strech sanctioned? I think TL's Elo use every game played, not just the kespa sanctioned...unless you meant something different. | ||
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pvzvt
Israel2097 Posts
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d(O.o)a
Canada5066 Posts
Is there anybody you would TRULY consider a favorite over flash in a bo5 or even bo1/bo3 yes jaedong might win but not with his dominating style he's been showing lately. | ||
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TwoToneTerran
United States8841 Posts
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TwoToneTerran
United States8841 Posts
SPL: Really Kwanro Hyun Firebathero Savior Hiya Fantasy Ruby Mind Arnc Frozen Savior Hiya Sea Casy Mind Hogil S2 Firebathero Stork Hero Calm WL: Jaedong Movie Snow Hyuk Bisu Fantasy Best Jangbi Firebathero Stork Kwanro Roro Baby Shuttle Kal Calm Bolded high tier opponents (for the match up atleast), underlined and bolded top tier opponents, underlined, bolded, and italicized Jaedong. he's not only got a monster winrate, but he's got a monster winrate against every goddamn player you could think to throw at him with the exception of Zero who he hasn't played. | ||
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Hinanawi
United States2250 Posts
Now look at him. Protoss shit their pants when they have to face Flash. Half the time he beats them in under 12 minutes, and if that fails, he turtles up and still wins in a long game. The only person scarier to face as a Protoss right now is Jaedong. | ||
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Mindcrime
United States6899 Posts
On March 11 2010 10:02 d(O.o)a wrote: Why isn't Flash considered Bonjwa, he just took 2 individual league titles Silver and Gold that's damn impressive, he has the highest ELO BY FAR over 100 above jaedong who's in second OVER 100! Yes Jaedong beat him in MSL but he still got second in there while getting first in OSL It was pretty impressive when Chojja won a gold and a silver in 2006 and claimed #1 on kespa too. | ||
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bluetrolls
United States139 Posts
On March 11 2010 13:53 Mindcrime wrote: It was pretty impressive when Chojja won a gold and a silver in 2006 and claimed #1 on kespa too. With <55% win rate during the period. Right. | ||
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d(O.o)a
Canada5066 Posts
On March 11 2010 13:53 Mindcrime wrote: It was pretty impressive when Chojja won a gold and a silver in 2006 and claimed #1 on kespa too. Did I mention kespa? not to mention that is impressive, any double title is impressive. regardless of who you're playing because you have to practice so much. | ||
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Mindcrime
United States6899 Posts
On March 11 2010 14:26 d(O.o)a wrote: Did I mention kespa? not to mention that is impressive, any double title is impressive. regardless of who you're playing because you have to practice so much. I didn't think my point was so subtle. :| | ||
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Vasoline73
United States7751 Posts
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SuperArc
Austria7781 Posts
On March 11 2010 11:32 TwoToneTerran wrote: Also, the most impressive thing about Flash is not his crazy winrates. Lots of people pull off crazy winrates (Leta, Effort, etc). Look at his list of opponents in his 38-5 run this season: SPL: Really Kwanro Hyun Firebathero Savior Hiya Fantasy Ruby Mind Arnc Frozen Savior Hiya Sea Casy Mind Hogil S2 Firebathero Stork Hero Calm WL: Jaedong Movie Snow Hyuk Bisu Fantasy Best Jangbi Firebathero Stork Kwanro Roro Baby Shuttle Kal Calm Bolded high tier opponents (for the match up atleast), underlined and bolded top tier opponents, underlined, bolded, and italicized Jaedong. he's not only got a monster winrate, but he's got a monster winrate against every goddamn player you could think to throw at him with the exception of Zero who he hasn't played. Effort and Leta beat many high tier opponents during their crazy win streaks too. That post was just your inner Flash fanboy speaking. :p | ||
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StylishVODs
Sweden5331 Posts
On March 11 2010 14:28 Vasoline73 wrote: Flash is not bonjwa. Wouldn't be without keeping this up for another 2 seasons imo I think the time should be 3years with 85% winrate. | ||
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arbiter_md
Moldova1219 Posts
On March 11 2010 21:06 StylishVODs wrote: I think the time should be 3years with 85% winrate. You will be surprised, but Flash has the potential to achieve this. | ||
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SuperArc
Austria7781 Posts
On March 11 2010 22:35 arbiter_md wrote: You will be surprised, but Flash has the potential to achieve this. not really SC1 won't live that much longer. | ||
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WWJDD
India342 Posts
Well, there's a documentary coming out on Flash. They are going to a brainscan and find the blue-tooth receiver that he uses to scout opponents. Where will all you Flash fanbois be then?? Huh?? Where?? | ||
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ultimateq
United States114 Posts
On March 12 2010 01:07 WWJDD wrote: Well, there's a documentary coming out on Flash. They are going to a brainscan and find the blue-tooth receiver that he uses to scout opponents. Where will all you Flash fanbois be then?? Huh?? Where?? Equally impressed that his biology can support modern circuitry like that! Flash just keeps getting awesomer! | ||
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