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Except that last month you had no idea if he was good enough for that position.
Over the last eighteen months, Jaedong's had brief periods where his play doesn't look completely dominant and his win percentage is around 60-65%. He has always rebounded and gone on to dominate once more. Riptide took that into account and assumed that he would return to form as he always has. You can go on constructing a fantasy world where he would have "slumped ever after," but it didn't happen, nor was it anywhere close to likely to happen. Riptide made the right call last month. It never needed to be validated by future results. If Jaedong had played poorly recently this power rank would have definitely registered that. Wow, look, it didn't have to. Anyone remotely familiar with Jaedong's record would have made the same decision as Riptide.
S-class progamers who have shown their resilience over a year or more both deserve and receive the benefit of the doubt for a month. Jaedong got it last month, Bisu got it this month. If it's two months, then their problem's more than just trivial and they begin to slide in the PR just like everyone else. To set up Power Ranks to measure only the accomplishments in the month at hand ignores everything we already know about proven progamers and gives undue respect to flavors of the month, especially when proleague is running while the individual leagues have only just begun. They don't just look dumb in retrospect, they already are dumb when they're put out.
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I completely agree, EvoChamber. Well said.
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On December 07 2009 00:23 pripple wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2009 18:58 Hinanawi wrote:On December 06 2009 18:33 din wrote:hey, now PR and ELO are nearly identical  ))) Wow, you're right. PR - Elo 1. Flash - Flash 2. Jaedong - Jaedong 3. Bisu - Bisu 4. Effort - Effort 5. Stork - Stork 6. ZerO - ZerO 7. Calm - Sea 8. Sea - Calm 9. Fantasy - Fantasy 10. Kwanro - Kal (note: Kwanro at 11 Elo) Nobody is more than one spot away from their Elo rank This only shows how precise our PR's are ;p
so now we know where riptide got his cliffnotes 
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Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
On December 08 2009 03:58 EvoChamber wrote:Show nested quote +Except that last month you had no idea if he was good enough for that position. Over the last eighteen months, Jaedong's had brief periods where his play doesn't look completely dominant and his win percentage is around 60-65%. He has always rebounded and gone on to dominate once more. Riptide took that into account and assumed that he would return to form as he always has. You can go on constructing a fantasy world where he would have "slumped ever after," but it didn't happen, nor was it anywhere close to likely to happen. Riptide made the right call last month. It never needed to be validated by future results. If Jaedong had played poorly recently this power rank would have definitely registered that. Wow, look, it didn't have to. Anyone remotely familiar with Jaedong's record would have made the same decision as Riptide. S-class progamers who have shown their resilience over a year or more both deserve and receive the benefit of the doubt for a month. Jaedong got it last month, Bisu got it this month. If it's two months, then their problem's more than just trivial and they begin to slide in the PR just like everyone else. To set up Power Ranks to measure only the accomplishments in the month at hand ignores everything we already know about proven progamers and gives undue respect to flavors of the month, especially when proleague is running while the individual leagues have only just begun. They don't just look dumb in retrospect, they already are dumb when they're put out.
Except the benefit of the doubt is different than #2 or #3 in the ranking. I'd say Calm got the benefit of the doubt this month. He played awful, and dropped to #7. I'd argue that's a little high, but nonetheless, he dropped hard after a bad month.
Who cares if JD is the greatest player of all time?- the fact is that the month before last he went 3-3, and his signature MU became his weakest. He was not playing like the #2 player in the world at that time, and that's all the PR is meant to do. The PR is never validated by future results, it's validated by the results that went into the rank. The PR doesn't measure past performance, or future performance, it measures performance right now. Because the interval of the PR is a month, than we take the results of the past month as our most recent evidence. You say that Riptide assumed that he would come back. So did I. But where's the room for actual facts if the PR is built on assumptions?
Hell, look at what Konadora assumes for every PL MU, and you can see how problematic assumptions can be. (Sorry Kona..!)
Finally, to say that anyone familiar with Jaedong's record would've made the same call is only a cute rhetorical device, but it's also blatantly wrong. A ton of people thought JD was too high.
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On December 08 2009 13:30 tree.hugger wrote:
The PR doesn't measure past performance, or future performance, it measures performance right now.
That is your subjective take on what the PR is about. Everyone has their own. Riptide has IMO shown that he values past performances and hypothetical skill (or whatever you wanna call it) quite highly. That may seem wrong in your eyes, but in my eyes it's a very important thing to take into consideration. Obviously people should go up a down when they deserve to, but JD's performance last month really doesn't validate him dropping below any of the other people beneath him. He went 6-2 in November, with the 2 losses being ZvZ's in PL (and after one of those he won the ace game). JD's position as No2 is completely correct the way I see it. He would be the favourite against ANYONE except Flash in a Bo5 at the moment.
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Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
On December 08 2009 13:49 Holgerius wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2009 13:30 tree.hugger wrote:
The PR doesn't measure past performance, or future performance, it measures performance right now.
That is your subjective take on what the PR is about. Everyone has their own. Riptide has IMO shown that he values past performances and hypothetical skill (or whatever you wanna call it) quite highly. That may seem wrong in your eyes, but in my eyes it's a very important thing to take into consideration. Obviously people should go up a down when they deserve to, but JD's performance last month really doesn't validate him dropping below any of the other people beneath him. He went 6-2 in November, with the 2 losses being ZvZ's in PL (and after one of those he won the ace game). JD's position as No2 is completely correct the way I see it. He would be the favourite against ANYONE except Flash in a Bo5 at the moment.
I'm sorry, I was unclear. I was responding to Evo about the month before last when he was also #2.
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On December 07 2009 21:54 johanes wrote:
Also props to "predicting" current fantasy's form
-sigh- Fantasy is sooo inconsistant
sometimes he plays OSL finals - level star
other times he plays "Justin" - level star
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On December 09 2009 06:20 DreaM)XeRO wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2009 21:54 johanes wrote:
Also props to "predicting" current fantasy's form -sigh- Fantasy is sooo inconsistant sometimes he plays OSL finals - level star other times he plays "Justin" - level star
sadly enough, he starts to get consistant - in losing
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On December 09 2009 01:52 tree.hugger wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2009 13:49 Holgerius wrote:On December 08 2009 13:30 tree.hugger wrote:
The PR doesn't measure past performance, or future performance, it measures performance right now.
That is your subjective take on what the PR is about. Everyone has their own. Riptide has IMO shown that he values past performances and hypothetical skill (or whatever you wanna call it) quite highly. That may seem wrong in your eyes, but in my eyes it's a very important thing to take into consideration. Obviously people should go up a down when they deserve to, but JD's performance last month really doesn't validate him dropping below any of the other people beneath him. He went 6-2 in November, with the 2 losses being ZvZ's in PL (and after one of those he won the ace game). JD's position as No2 is completely correct the way I see it. He would be the favourite against ANYONE except Flash in a Bo5 at the moment. I'm sorry, I was unclear. I was responding to Evo about the month before last when he was also #2.
All right, I think I see what's going on. You joined TL shortly after JWD started writing the Power Rank and so you assume that how JWD wrote the Power Rank is how it's always been written. All previous PR writers wrote it as riptide does now. They strongly emphasized the month at hand but they didn't narrow their scope to consider performance in that month as the sole criterion to the exclusion of all past history. Keeping Jaedong at #2 last month was entirely in keeping with that tradition. You might not like it, but that's how it is, and that's how it's been since the Power Rank came into being, May-August 2009 excepted.
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On December 09 2009 16:08 EvoChamber wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2009 01:52 tree.hugger wrote:On December 08 2009 13:49 Holgerius wrote:On December 08 2009 13:30 tree.hugger wrote:
The PR doesn't measure past performance, or future performance, it measures performance right now.
That is your subjective take on what the PR is about. Everyone has their own. Riptide has IMO shown that he values past performances and hypothetical skill (or whatever you wanna call it) quite highly. That may seem wrong in your eyes, but in my eyes it's a very important thing to take into consideration. Obviously people should go up a down when they deserve to, but JD's performance last month really doesn't validate him dropping below any of the other people beneath him. He went 6-2 in November, with the 2 losses being ZvZ's in PL (and after one of those he won the ace game). JD's position as No2 is completely correct the way I see it. He would be the favourite against ANYONE except Flash in a Bo5 at the moment. I'm sorry, I was unclear. I was responding to Evo about the month before last when he was also #2. All right, I think I see what's going on. You joined TL shortly after JWD started writing the Power Rank and so you assume that how JWD wrote the Power Rank is how it's always been written. All previous PR writers wrote it as riptide does now. They strongly emphasized the month at hand but they didn't narrow their scope to consider performance in that month as the sole criterion to the exclusion of all past history. Keeping Jaedong at #2 last month was entirely in keeping with that tradition. You might not like it, but that's how it is, and that's how it's been since the Power Rank came into being, May-August 2009 excepted.
exactly
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Would it be possible to have the PR count down from 10 to 1 rather then count up?
I find myself often losing interest after reading the top 5... but reading the whole thing would be exciting if it started with 10.
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On December 09 2009 16:08 EvoChamber wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2009 01:52 tree.hugger wrote:On December 08 2009 13:49 Holgerius wrote:On December 08 2009 13:30 tree.hugger wrote:
The PR doesn't measure past performance, or future performance, it measures performance right now.
That is your subjective take on what the PR is about. Everyone has their own. Riptide has IMO shown that he values past performances and hypothetical skill (or whatever you wanna call it) quite highly. That may seem wrong in your eyes, but in my eyes it's a very important thing to take into consideration. Obviously people should go up a down when they deserve to, but JD's performance last month really doesn't validate him dropping below any of the other people beneath him. He went 6-2 in November, with the 2 losses being ZvZ's in PL (and after one of those he won the ace game). JD's position as No2 is completely correct the way I see it. He would be the favourite against ANYONE except Flash in a Bo5 at the moment. I'm sorry, I was unclear. I was responding to Evo about the month before last when he was also #2. All right, I think I see what's going on. You joined TL shortly after JWD started writing the Power Rank and so you assume that how JWD wrote the Power Rank is how it's always been written. All previous PR writers wrote it as riptide does now. They strongly emphasized the month at hand but they didn't narrow their scope to consider performance in that month as the sole criterion to the exclusion of all past history. Keeping Jaedong at #2 last month was entirely in keeping with that tradition. You might not like it, but that's how it is, and that's how it's been since the Power Rank came into being, May-August 2009 excepted.
Well put. Thank you
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Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
On December 09 2009 16:08 EvoChamber wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2009 01:52 tree.hugger wrote:On December 08 2009 13:49 Holgerius wrote:On December 08 2009 13:30 tree.hugger wrote:
The PR doesn't measure past performance, or future performance, it measures performance right now.
That is your subjective take on what the PR is about. Everyone has their own. Riptide has IMO shown that he values past performances and hypothetical skill (or whatever you wanna call it) quite highly. That may seem wrong in your eyes, but in my eyes it's a very important thing to take into consideration. Obviously people should go up a down when they deserve to, but JD's performance last month really doesn't validate him dropping below any of the other people beneath him. He went 6-2 in November, with the 2 losses being ZvZ's in PL (and after one of those he won the ace game). JD's position as No2 is completely correct the way I see it. He would be the favourite against ANYONE except Flash in a Bo5 at the moment. I'm sorry, I was unclear. I was responding to Evo about the month before last when he was also #2. All right, I think I see what's going on. You joined TL shortly after JWD started writing the Power Rank and so you assume that how JWD wrote the Power Rank is how it's always been written. All previous PR writers wrote it as riptide does now. They strongly emphasized the month at hand but they didn't narrow their scope to consider performance in that month as the sole criterion to the exclusion of all past history. Keeping Jaedong at #2 last month was entirely in keeping with that tradition. You might not like it, but that's how it is, and that's how it's been since the Power Rank came into being, May-August 2009 excepted.
Way to make wild assumptions about how long I've read this site. It's wonderful to be dismissed like that.
While it's true that I liked JWD's rankings better than Riptide's, I often took issue with some of JWD's methodology. But not only this, but Fakesteve wrote the PR with similar emphasis as JWD. And OneOther wasn't too different either. That's over a year of consistant PR emphasis on the past month as the best indicator of current performance.
Notice I never said only criterion. If record of the past month were the only criterion, then JD would not have even been on the October rank after going 3-3. But of course, he's Jaedong, and that's absurd, and so he should've dropped, but #2 was essentially the residue of an OSL win from months before. That seemed a little bizarre.
Please try to be a little less patronizing. Please represent my arguments fairly.
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On December 10 2009 07:57 Orbifold wrote:
Would it be possible to have the PR count down from 10 to 1 rather then count up?
I find myself often losing interest after reading the top 5... but reading the whole thing would be exciting if it started with 10.
I second this completely (-:
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On December 10 2009 08:26 tree.hugger wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2009 16:08 EvoChamber wrote:On December 09 2009 01:52 tree.hugger wrote:On December 08 2009 13:49 Holgerius wrote:On December 08 2009 13:30 tree.hugger wrote:
The PR doesn't measure past performance, or future performance, it measures performance right now.
That is your subjective take on what the PR is about. Everyone has their own. Riptide has IMO shown that he values past performances and hypothetical skill (or whatever you wanna call it) quite highly. That may seem wrong in your eyes, but in my eyes it's a very important thing to take into consideration. Obviously people should go up a down when they deserve to, but JD's performance last month really doesn't validate him dropping below any of the other people beneath him. He went 6-2 in November, with the 2 losses being ZvZ's in PL (and after one of those he won the ace game). JD's position as No2 is completely correct the way I see it. He would be the favourite against ANYONE except Flash in a Bo5 at the moment. I'm sorry, I was unclear. I was responding to Evo about the month before last when he was also #2. All right, I think I see what's going on. You joined TL shortly after JWD started writing the Power Rank and so you assume that how JWD wrote the Power Rank is how it's always been written. All previous PR writers wrote it as riptide does now. They strongly emphasized the month at hand but they didn't narrow their scope to consider performance in that month as the sole criterion to the exclusion of all past history. Keeping Jaedong at #2 last month was entirely in keeping with that tradition. You might not like it, but that's how it is, and that's how it's been since the Power Rank came into being, May-August 2009 excepted. Way to make wild assumptions about how long I've read this site. It's wonderful to be dismissed like that. While it's true that I liked JWD's rankings better than Riptide's, I often took issue with some of JWD's methodology. But not only this, but Fakesteve wrote the PR with similar emphasis as JWD. And OneOther wasn't too different either. That's over a year of consistant PR emphasis on the past month as the best indicator of current performance. Notice I never said only criterion. If record of the past month were the only criterion, then JD would not have even been on the October rank after going 3-3. But of course, he's Jaedong, and that's absurd, and so he should've dropped, but #2 was essentially the residue of an OSL win from months before. That seemed a little bizarre. Please try to be a little less patronizing. Please represent my arguments fairly.
It's not really a wild assumption since you joined the community at may 16th 2009 according to your profile. Fair enough, you could've been lurking for a long time before that, but to call it a "wild" assumption seems like a stretch.
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FS didn`t write the PR like JWD...CLEARLY not
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On December 10 2009 12:42 Tha_Docta wrote:Show nested quote +On December 10 2009 07:57 Orbifold wrote:
Would it be possible to have the PR count down from 10 to 1 rather then count up?
I find myself often losing interest after reading the top 5... but reading the whole thing would be exciting if it started with 10. I second this completely (-:
yes please
sorry to make this connection but SC2GG does this with their top 10
and i find myself taking the time and building up to number 1
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Eh, no thanks. I like the PR the way it is.
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i've always found the past few months'/past month's/current/future performance debate to be a bit silly. i think a power rank is more about feeling - how much power does that name have. the most functional translation for that is who do you expect to win in a BoX (specific matchup strengths and weaknesses notwithstanding). part of what goes into how powerful the name feels is how much you expect them to perform on that specific day, whether you think they might randomly fail or randomly perform at an uncharacteristically high level. so even though when you think about it, sure, you expect zero to win a BoX against bisu, you also know bisu might pull off something completely sick, and zero might just collapse (just for instance). this is how past strength comes into the equation and it's completely relevant and important.
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personally, I like hot bids method for the power ranking - it was something like: if you could pick one player to play against Darth Vader in a game for your soul, who would it be? That player is number 1.
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EPT
